EPTQ: Why would scum vote out their own man?
A: They wouldn't. They are voting for someone they know to be town.
Hurricane, I am deeply disappointed in you. You need to consider what the mafia team could possibly be at this point if Alakaslam is mafia.
Newbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 11
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Q: Why would scum vote out their own man? A: They wouldn't. They are voting for someone they know to be town. Hurricane, I am deeply disappointed in you. You need to consider what the mafia team could possibly be at this point if Alakaslam is mafia. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 03:36 Hurricane Sponge wrote: I have, haven't you? If we get a alakaslam mislynch, do you not see two immediate Mafia lynches lined up? I do. I am asking what you think the mafia team is if Alakaslam is mafia. Do you think I am mafia if Alakaslam is mafia? If not, who is? I am assuming StiM, but who else? | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 03:41 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Ironically, Alakaslam flipping as Mafia gives me the LEAST amount of information regarding endgame scenarios. As far as shaping reads, we'd get the most info from a successful Onegu scum lynch, then roughly equivalent useful information from an Onegu mislynch or a 'Slam mislynch. Lastly, we'd get the least information (but still some) from a successful 'Slam scum lynch. This is exactly my point. If this is your position, then why is your vote currently on Alakaslam? Your actions aren't matching up with your words. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Onegu Scum Lynch Onegu Mislynch=Alakaslam Mislynch Alakaslam Scum Lynch Clearly lynching Onegu gives us more information than Alakaslam, therefore it is the optimal decision. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 03:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote: 2. The information we'd gain from an Onegu mislynch is inconsistent with the rest of the game. If you truly believe 2. is true, wouldn't you also have to agree that the Onegu mislynch is unlikely BECAUSE it is inconsistent with the rest of the game? I think the problem is that we see the same issue with the Onegu mislynch, but I attribute it to the fact the Onegu is scum and you are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he is town because of it. Of course, you can see it both ways, but I would say that these two scenarios are equally likely and thus should cancel out. You cannot say this inconsistency makes Onegu more likely to be town. I ask you again. If Alakaslam is mafia, who constitutes the rest of his team? What are your reads? | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 03:47 Spicydinosaur wrote: Or they could be bussing and trying to get ahead of the wagon. you ever consider scum splitting up the votes? Also suprising you didnt apply this logic to the xzavier vote. 7 people were on him and you didnt go "oh shit this guy has to be town," no you kept your vote on him and lied to get others to join. You cant use this logic when you completely ignored it in the past. I did consider it, but have since ruled it out as a possibility. We have already established that either Onegu or Alakaslam MUST be mafia. This puts mafia in an awkward position. They need to save their teammate because a lynch on them would spiral out of control and likely end up with multiple mafia lynches through consecutive days. If Alakaslam is mafia, StiM will likely get lynched the following day. If Onegu is mafia, we get (basically) get another confirmed mafia the next day. Thus, I do not think that mafia, in this circumstance, would be willing to give up two of their members just to split the vote and appear innocent. They must choose the same wagon to prevent a snowball effectno matter which one flips mafia. Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim. Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach). | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Could you maybe take a look at Alakaslam's initial claim and analyze whether his motives are coming from a town's perspective or not? | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:07 Hurricane Sponge wrote: I figured it out. You want to buy a lottery ticket. I want to buy house insurance. I just don't think the likelihood of a fire is very high, and the odds of winning the lottery are 50/50. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:08 Spicydinosaur wrote: Your assuming he did this with the other's consent. As you pointed out right after, he acts independently. Why would he act independently if he had a mafia team, though? | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:14 Hurricane Sponge wrote: But if your lottery ticket is a bust, we're left with nothing. At least with insurance, we can throw a bitchin' fireworks party. Let's just avoid cooking in the damn house, GOD DAMN IT! | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Hurricane makes some good points, but they are dependent on the belief that Alakaslam has no obvious scumbuddies. I completely disagree, so I do not share Hurricane's view. Aquanim seems like he is just choosing to lynch Alakaslam because he has a strong town read on Onegu. We will see if this read is justified soon enough. Everyone else on the Alakaslam wagon screams scum to me for numerous reasons I have pointed out before. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:25 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Are you saying that you do see obvious scumbuddies for Alakaslam? If so, doesn't this make you more comfortable with a 'Slam lynch? I could ask you the same of an Onegu lynch. I see obvious scumbuddies for BOTH lynches. I believe that Onegu is more likely to flip scum based upon Alakaslam's initial claim and various scummy characteristics of Onegu. Thus, I believe Onegu is the better lynch for today. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:26 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Soon, but not now. I want to see the mafia do the Scum Vote Shuffle for a bit. Our night time is long, and our actions simple. It will not take much time to plot our course forward. Okay, I see your point. I will hold off on that for now. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Would you call me crazy if I had a keen eye on a StiM modkill tonight? Wouldn't we be in a LYLO situation if StiM and Alakaslam both flipped town? | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:30 FirmTofu wrote: Wouldn't we be in a LYLO situation if StiM and Alakaslam both flipped town? Actually we would lose because Mafia would kill a town member. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:32 hzflank wrote: Do you think I should base my play around that? Even though I think basing your play around that would benefit my case, I do NOT think you should base your play around it. Modkills should not be an active component of the game and we shouldn't change our play in anticipation of one, IMHO. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:38 Hurricane Sponge wrote: This. The spirit of the game is to assume active participation. StiM's M.O. is to swoop in at the last second anyway. I only mentioned the modkill as a possibility to mentally prepare people, not to seriously gameplan around it. I think he will post, he will vote, and he will continue to be less than helpful. His vote will also tell us little about his alignment if Alakaslam flips scum now that we have majority and his vote doesn't really matter. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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