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On June 29 2013 03:30 LoneMeow wrote:I cannot ignore the logic in Aquanim's case. Claiming watcher is ridiculously risky, and Onegu wasn't in any real risk of being lynched at the time so why would he take such a massive gamble? Also, applying Occam's Razor to this: Show nested quote +On June 28 2013 20:57 hzflank wrote:
Simplified:
Onegu is town
Alakaslam is scum
Hurricane has a power role
Alakaslam is town
Onegu is scum
Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN
Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane Would suggest that Alakaslam is scum, as that requires less coincidence. ##Vote: Alakaslam
Not by much. Why WOULDN'T the mafia track me. They had the shot lined up on Chromatically (far and away the best player in this game), and wanted information on their planned Night Two NK target (me, the most credible townie remaining).
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On June 29 2013 03:32 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 03:30 LoneMeow wrote:I cannot ignore the logic in Aquanim's case. Claiming watcher is ridiculously risky, and Onegu wasn't in any real risk of being lynched at the time so why would he take such a massive gamble? Also, applying Occam's Razor to this: On June 28 2013 20:57 hzflank wrote:
Simplified:
Onegu is town
Alakaslam is scum
Hurricane has a power role
Alakaslam is town
Onegu is scum
Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN
Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane Would suggest that Alakaslam is scum, as that requires less coincidence. ##Vote: Alakaslam Not by much. Why WOULDN'T the mafia track me. They had the shot lined up on Chromatically (far and away the best player in this game), and wanted information on their planned Night Two NK target (me, the most credible townie remaining).
Alakaslam could be a Town Tracker, and Onegu could be a Mafia Tracker.
Onegu could be Town Watcher, and Alakaslam could be a Mafia Tracker.
Equally likely scenarios under Occam's Razor. You are going to have to start bringing a lot more heat to the table, LoneMeow. Your leash is running out fast.
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On June 29 2013 03:33 FirmTofu wrote:
There are too many people on the Alakaslam bandwagon, meaning that scum has to be on it.
Q: Why would scum vote out their own man?
A: They wouldn't. They are voting for someone they know to be town.
Hurricane, I am deeply disappointed in you. You need to consider what the mafia team could possibly be at this point if Alakaslam is mafia.
I have, haven't you? If we get a alakaslam mislynch, do you not see two immediate Mafia lynches lined up?
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LoneMeow looks like scum to me now, but that is reliant on a 'Slam mislynch.
Slam, buddy, I'm sorry if you are town, but your death will not have been in vain.
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Ironically, Alakaslam flipping as Mafia gives me the LEAST amount of information regarding endgame scenarios. As far as shaping reads, we'd get the most info from a successful Onegu scum lynch, then roughly equivalent useful information from an Onegu mislynch or a 'Slam mislynch. Lastly, we'd get the least information (but still some) from a successful 'Slam scum lynch.
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1. We can't guarantee that Onegu will flip scum.
2. The information we'd gain from an Onegu mislynch is inconsistent with the rest of the game.
3. The information we'd gain from an Alakaslam mislynch paints a very clear picture (and immediately implicates two people as mafia)
4. We can't guarantee that 'Slam will flip scum.
1 and 4 cancel out. You pick the best results from the remaining set (2 and 3). 3's results look WAY more likely than 2.
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On June 29 2013 03:44 FirmTofu wrote:
You just stated that this is the order of most information to least information gained:
Onegu Scum Lynch
Onegu Mislynch=Alakaslam Mislynch
Alakaslam Scum Lynch
Clearly lynching Onegu gives us more information than Alakaslam, therefore it is the optimal decision.
If we were out of time and needed a big play, yes. But a mislynch results in a 2-for-1 trade (2 mafia die after the mislynch). We have the luxury of taking advantage of that play (barely).
Obviously, we'd ideally get a mafia flip. But I'm not going to bet the farm that Onegu will flip scum, because if he doesn't, we're left with a much less plausible scenario than if 'Slam were to be mislynched.
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If what I'm saying doesn't make sense to anyone else, speak up now. I need to make my logic crystal clear before the vote. If there are flaws in my argument, don't keep it to yourself. TELL ME so I have time to re-evaluate my position.
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On June 29 2013 03:51 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 03:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
2. The information we'd gain from an Onegu mislynch is inconsistent with the rest of the game.
If you truly believe 2. is true, wouldn't you also have to agree that the Onegu mislynch is unlikely BECAUSE it is inconsistent with the rest of the game? I think the problem is that we see the same issue with the Onegu mislynch, but I attribute it to the fact the Onegu is scum and you are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he is town because of it. Of course, you can see it both ways, but I would say that these two scenarios are equally likely and thus should cancel out. You cannot say this inconsistency makes Onegu more likely to be town. I ask you again. If Alakaslam is mafia, who constitutes the rest of his team? What are your reads?
Likely, my reads would be StiM and LoneMeow. I'd have to briefly re-evaluate you, Spicy and HZ. There are more open ends with that situation than any other, but the point is moot because we'd have lynched a mafia, which is good.
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On June 29 2013 03:51 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 03:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
2. The information we'd gain from an Onegu mislynch is inconsistent with the rest of the game.
If you truly believe 2. is true, wouldn't you also have to agree that the Onegu mislynch is unlikely BECAUSE it is inconsistent with the rest of the game? I think the problem is that we see the same issue with the Onegu mislynch, but I attribute it to the fact the Onegu is scum and you are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he is town because of it. Of course, you can see it both ways, but I would say that these two scenarios are equally likely and thus should cancel out. You cannot say this inconsistency makes Onegu more likely to be town. I ask you again. If Alakaslam is mafia, who constitutes the rest of his team? What are your reads?
The information gained from the mislynches would not cancel out because the information gained is not equally plausible.
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The time will come for that. A tofu lynch is not productive for the town at this juncture.
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On June 29 2013 03:58 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 03:54 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On June 29 2013 03:51 FirmTofu wrote:On June 29 2013 03:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
2. The information we'd gain from an Onegu mislynch is inconsistent with the rest of the game.
If you truly believe 2. is true, wouldn't you also have to agree that the Onegu mislynch is unlikely BECAUSE it is inconsistent with the rest of the game? I think the problem is that we see the same issue with the Onegu mislynch, but I attribute it to the fact the Onegu is scum and you are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he is town because of it. Of course, you can see it both ways, but I would say that these two scenarios are equally likely and thus should cancel out. You cannot say this inconsistency makes Onegu more likely to be town. I ask you again. If Alakaslam is mafia, who constitutes the rest of his team? What are your reads? Likely, my reads would be StiM and LoneMeow. I'd have to briefly re-evaluate you, Spicy and HZ. There are more open ends with that situation than any other, but the point is moot because we'd have lynched a mafia, which is good. I would suggest relooking at tofu now as he's heavily trying to change your vote. He's already proven once that he lies to get a vote on a townie, and then again this morning he tried lying to me to get more to vote on onegu. He's also been wrong about most of the connections between people in this game (ie me and xzavier being scum buddies, onegu's town read being me or hz).
He should be trying to change my vote if he truly believes an Onegu lynch is best for the town. I wish more people challenged my logic and forced me to defend my opinions. I feel like I've been given a free pass by much of the town for one reason or another. Yes, I'm glad no one is wasting their time scum-hunting me, but I make mistakes and assumptions just like everyone else.
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On June 29 2013 04:01 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 03:47 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 29 2013 03:33 FirmTofu wrote:
There are too many people on the Alakaslam bandwagon, meaning that scum has to be on it.
Q: Why would scum vote out their own man?
A: They wouldn't. They are voting for someone they know to be town.
Hurricane, I am deeply disappointed in you. You need to consider what the mafia team could possibly be at this point if Alakaslam is mafia. Or they could be bussing and trying to get ahead of the wagon. you ever consider scum splitting up the votes? Also suprising you didnt apply this logic to the xzavier vote. 7 people were on him and you didnt go "oh shit this guy has to be town," no you kept your vote on him and lied to get others to join. You cant use this logic when you completely ignored it in the past. I did consider it, but have since ruled it out as a possibility. We have already established that either Onegu or Alakaslam MUST be mafia. This puts mafia in an awkward position. They need to save their teammate because a lynch on them would spiral out of control and likely end up with multiple mafia lynches through consecutive days. If Alakaslam is mafia, StiM will likely get lynched the following day.If Onegu is mafia, we get (basically) get another confirmed mafia the next day.
This is in no way the most likely scenario to play out. In fact, mafia may be ready to cut their losses on 'Slam as they sent him out here with a counter-claim on a gambit.
Regardless, I don't really care about the reads that spawn off 'Slam if he's lynched and flips mafia right now because we'll have flipped a Red. There will be plenty of time for analysis later. A more productive use of time for me personally was analyzing 'In Case Of Mislynch' scenarios.
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On June 29 2013 04:01 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 03:47 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 29 2013 03:33 FirmTofu wrote:
There are too many people on the Alakaslam bandwagon, meaning that scum has to be on it.
Q: Why would scum vote out their own man?
A: They wouldn't. They are voting for someone they know to be town.
Hurricane, I am deeply disappointed in you. You need to consider what the mafia team could possibly be at this point if Alakaslam is mafia. Or they could be bussing and trying to get ahead of the wagon. you ever consider scum splitting up the votes? Also suprising you didnt apply this logic to the xzavier vote. 7 people were on him and you didnt go "oh shit this guy has to be town," no you kept your vote on him and lied to get others to join. You cant use this logic when you completely ignored it in the past. I did consider it, but have since ruled it out as a possibility. We have already established that either Onegu or Alakaslam MUST be mafia. This puts mafia in an awkward position. They need to save their teammate because a lynch on them would spiral out of control and likely end up with multiple mafia lynches through consecutive days. If Alakaslam is mafia, StiM will likely get lynched the following day. If Onegu is mafia, we get (basically) get another confirmed mafia the next day. Thus, I do not think that mafia, in this circumstance, would be willing to give up two of their members just to split the vote and appear innocent. They must choose the same wagon to prevent a snowball effect no matter which one flips mafia. Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim. Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach).
I figured it out. You want to buy a lottery ticket. I want to buy house insurance.
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On June 29 2013 04:05 FirmTofu wrote:
@Hurricane
Could you maybe take a look at Alakaslam's initial claim and analyze whether his motives are coming from a town's perspective or not?
I had a post drawn up on this, but decided not to post it because it wouldn't have benefited the town in any way. After I went diving through Slam's filter, I analyzed two posts in particular. His early Day 1 martyr post, and the sequence where he bursts forth with his claim to be the Green Ranger. These are null reads for me now.
Tangentially related: Both Onegu and Alakaslam played horrible town games, in my opinion, for very different reasons. Onegu had a generally good game, but a handful of MASSIVE blunders. Alakaslam was lovable, but generally not useful except as a pro-town vote. Of course, his claim means that something incredibly good for the town may come of his death.
At various times last night, I found myself saying, "He can't be town, that's such horribly anti-town play!" for both players.
Much like I did with Xzavier.
So I've learned my lesson from the Xzavier lynch. I'm not assuming a successful lynch today, and I've chosen to focus on how we can make the most of a mislynch on a target that is also likely to flip scum.
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On June 29 2013 04:08 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 04:07 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On June 29 2013 04:01 FirmTofu wrote:On June 29 2013 03:47 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 29 2013 03:33 FirmTofu wrote:
There are too many people on the Alakaslam bandwagon, meaning that scum has to be on it.
Q: Why would scum vote out their own man?
A: They wouldn't. They are voting for someone they know to be town.
Hurricane, I am deeply disappointed in you. You need to consider what the mafia team could possibly be at this point if Alakaslam is mafia. Or they could be bussing and trying to get ahead of the wagon. you ever consider scum splitting up the votes? Also suprising you didnt apply this logic to the xzavier vote. 7 people were on him and you didnt go "oh shit this guy has to be town," no you kept your vote on him and lied to get others to join. You cant use this logic when you completely ignored it in the past. I did consider it, but have since ruled it out as a possibility. We have already established that either Onegu or Alakaslam MUST be mafia. This puts mafia in an awkward position. They need to save their teammate because a lynch on them would spiral out of control and likely end up with multiple mafia lynches through consecutive days. If Alakaslam is mafia, StiM will likely get lynched the following day. If Onegu is mafia, we get (basically) get another confirmed mafia the next day. Thus, I do not think that mafia, in this circumstance, would be willing to give up two of their members just to split the vote and appear innocent. They must choose the same wagon to prevent a snowball effect no matter which one flips mafia. Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim. Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach). I figured it out. You want to buy a lottery ticket. I want to buy house insurance. I just don't think the likelihood of a fire is very high, and the odds of winning the lottery are 50/50.
But if your lottery ticket is a bust, we're left with nothing. At least with insurance, we can throw a bitchin' fireworks party.
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On June 29 2013 04:13 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 04:09 FirmTofu wrote:On June 29 2013 04:08 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 29 2013 04:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim.
Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach). Your assuming he did this with the other's consent. As you pointed out right after, he acts independently. Why would he act independently if he had a mafia team, though? For the exact purpose of getting you to think like this. We both know there are general assumptions of how scum players act or are supposed to act. We also know that scum change up their game and do things that wouldnt exactly line up as scummy to better hide.
Spicy, this is WIFOM, and I don't think it's the most likely scenario. I think 'Slam may have acted independently because he has to. If StiM and Lonemeow are afk in mafia QT, 'slam is having to make these plays himself.
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This feels dumb to me. I don't have any conviction when trying to convince someone one way or the other regarding these players guilt. Clearly there are good cases for both Onegu and 'Slam being scum. Everyone should be willing to admit that. The point is that we're working off the assumption that only one of them IS scum, and I feel we need to prepare ourselves for post-lynch.
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EBWOP: Not the jokes. The jokes are good, I laughed hz/tofu. The debate over who is more guilty (slam / onegu) seems dumb. I can't imagine that anyone has some crucial point they've yet to contribute to this issue, so theoretically everyone has formed an opinion at this time. Now is the time to plan for our future as a Town.
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On June 29 2013 04:20 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 04:16 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On June 29 2013 04:13 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 29 2013 04:09 FirmTofu wrote:On June 29 2013 04:08 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 29 2013 04:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim.
Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach). Your assuming he did this with the other's consent. As you pointed out right after, he acts independently. Why would he act independently if he had a mafia team, though? For the exact purpose of getting you to think like this. We both know there are general assumptions of how scum players act or are supposed to act. We also know that scum change up their game and do things that wouldnt exactly line up as scummy to better hide. Spicy, this is WIFOM, and I don't think it's the most likely scenario. I think 'Slam may have acted independently because he has to. If StiM and Lonemeow are afk in mafia QT, 'slam is having to make these plays himself. I agree its probably not what occurred, i just didnt like tofu assuming it away like he has some additional knowledge of the situation.
Tofu makes leaps like this, check his filter. Not a huge scum tell to me. This aspect is just a slight liability to the town. He makes good (actually great) cases, but he struggles when the situation calls for re-evaluating them.
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EPT
