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Roulette Mini Mafia
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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Also, ##Vote WoS | ||
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On June 06 2013 11:27 Zephirdd wrote: It's night read the rest of the day before voting lol I know it's night. Zeph soft defending WoS! | ||
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On June 06 2013 11:31 Zephirdd wrote: tbh considering how the day went, I would defend him hard  My early case was too early and wrong atm, and I dont think rayn was putting flame into a scum lynch like he didcan someone tell me what was Sentinel's slip? ((side note: sentinel does feel very inactive this game)) ((other side note: I'm not sure if a scum would try to push his power role like he did)) I'm assuming its the fact that he called his vote a "bus", pre-flip. | ||
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Ace had a poor showing day one, not bringing anything of value to the table. He was late to the rayn lynch and even tried to spook people away from the lynch in the final hours. What concerns me the most is that Ace wasn't applying his own views of rayn, he is characterizing whether or not the lynch is legitimate based on the collective reasoning. On June 06 2013 05:32 Ace wrote: highlighted in bold. I think it is the main reason people are voting rayne. It's a pretty solid line of reasoning. With this post, Ace establishes that there is a legitimate reason to vote rayn. Later on, he establishes the case from fuba as the argument that convinced him that rayn is scum. On June 06 2013 05:32 Ace wrote: If people are voting for him based on inactivity and not this case then yea we might be mislynching the guy. On June 06 2013 07:11 Ace wrote: For the remaining people voting for rayne do you believe he is really just inactive or just Scum? On June 06 2013 12:03 Ace wrote: I only attempted to switch off when we established rayne might be an inactivity lynch. After an analysis of the votes, however Ace decides that rayn is a poor lynch. Why do the statements that Ace described as a solid line of reasoning no longer apply? If people are voting rayn for the wrong reasons, shouldn't he be convincing people to vote rayn for the right reasons, instead of trying to redirect the lynch? Even if Ace concluded that rayn was an inactivity lynch, concluding that it was a mislynch is a jump that is never adequately explained. An inactivity lynch can be valid if there is supporting evidence that the player is scum in the limited amount of posts they have. Ace never discusses rayn's posts, which should be the deciding factor when determining if the inactivity lynch is a mafia lynch or mislynch. From the previous game, where I was a scum buddy with rayn, I noticed that on day one, he put effort into scum to scum interaction, sending me a couple of softballs, that weren't really prompted. I wouldn't put much value into this observation, but I think his interaction with Ace and layabout most closely reflect this type of interaction. On June 06 2013 05:04 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Whether or not I sheep rayne my vote will look scummy. Going with my gut I guess. ##unvote ##vote: raynpelikoneet Even if you ignore the "scum slip", the thing about this post that seems the most scummy to me is the fact that he is concerned about how he appears to others. A town player votes for the player they want to lynch as scum. A mafia player is more aware of how his vote will look to others. He also appears paranoid when he makes a post stating his concern by not being mentioned by rayn. I think he overplays his certainty of the lynch in his explanation of a previous post. In his post, he describes it as a gut read and never really indicates that rayn is the player that we should be lynching, until the lynch is already decided. Post-flip he suddenly goes from a gut read to 100% certain. | ||
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kitaman27
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Fun. | ||
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On June 07 2013 08:08 VayneAuthority wrote: Leaning towards sentinel being town and oats being scum, but my reads have been trash thus far, probably the worst ever. 1 player flipping scum equates to your worst ever reads? | ||
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bbl | ||
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#Vote Oats bbl | ||
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On June 07 2013 11:20 WaveofShadow wrote: Because it's possible they're both town you derp. Vayne is correct. We 100% lynch between one of the two to reduce the kp. bbl. | ||
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Make me. Were you serious about wanting to lynch prpl? | ||
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On June 07 2013 11:25 Oatsmaster wrote: If we dont lynch Ace, my reads get infinitely less confidant. But yeah I was. So you think Ace pulled off a miller check on you or that the better option is to wait and get a second check before resolving things? | ||
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On June 07 2013 11:25 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: How bout you stay the hell in here for 10 minutes and write which one is scum then? Nuh uh, I asked you first. | ||
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On June 07 2013 11:27 Oatsmaster wrote: I think Ace is lying as scum. Why isnt that what you are thinking? So why are you suggesting that we lynch prpl? | ||
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But didn't you just suggest we not lynch Ace? | ||
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On June 07 2013 08:55 Ace wrote: Please, show me where this lack of production is? lol, that's a silly statement. On June 07 2013 08:55 Ace wrote: then why wasn't I trying to turn the lynch around? For your point to be valid I would be putting a lot of effort into reversing his wagon wouldn't I? So you are you saying you weren't trying to turn around a lynch that you believed to be a mislynch? Perhaps I'm having trouble getting things straight regarding whether or not you wanted to lynch rayn at the end of the cycle? On June 07 2013 09:32 Ace wrote: I'll be back after the game is over. You're getting lynched if you afk for a second cycle. There is more to discuss past the cop check. | ||
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1:1 trade is deceiving in name. It's really 1 mafia in exchange for two wasted cycles of discussion, a mislynch, and an extra kp by preserving the mafia numbers. 10v3 would end up as 6v2, assuming no saves, although saves are pretty likely in this setup. Speaking of the setup, I think a shorter game definitely benefits mafia and mafia do appear to be playing the numbers game based on the night hits. From a mafia perspective, in Ace's position, I would only make the fake claim if I deemed the upcoming cycle to be doomed from the start, whether it be the top two mafia candidates being scum or the top scum candidate being unquestionably lynched. 6v2 gives the mafia a fighting chance, but 9v2 is pretty much over. I hate that Ace is the one providing the check, but I think a cop check is a sub-optimal mafia strategy from his current position. If I were a mafia Ace, I'd go for the mislynch this cycle and pull shenanigans on day three if the opportunity were available. If he is indeed offering himself up in a poor exchange, then I suppose we take it and go into day four in a good position. If I had a town read on Oats, I might reconsider, but with him flopping from Sent to prpl and then considering for a moment that someone other than Ace should be lynched, ##Vote: Oatsmaster I do question in what world Ace considers being afk as a viable defense. If you're busy, yet still signed up for the game, give up some sleep if you have to. I'm quite willing to switch back to Ace if he doesn't provide a scum read outside of a cop check on Oats. As a town cop, he certainly has put no effort into establishing his credibility and he needs to comment on other individuals. Oats, I'd suggest you provide as many reads as possible. Calling people scum in caps doesn't count. Maybe you can sway me. | ||
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On June 07 2013 23:31 Oatsmaster wrote: I dont think prp is currently scum, sent scumslipped so there's that too. Ace/Sent wouldve probably been discussion topics, and now its Ace and me. Could you explain why prpl is town and why sent is scum (outside of a slip?). Also, a guess regarding the 4th suspect and a case would be helpful. Thoughts about layabout? | ||
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On June 07 2013 23:31 Oatsmaster wrote: Why are you so dense? Mostly because said that you hated me. That really, really hurt | ||
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On June 07 2013 23:48 Stutters695 wrote: Absence isn't a scum tell on its own. I think you have to treat continued absence as a scum tell, otherwise it establishes a policy that it's fine to disappear without consequence. | ||
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On June 06 2013 10:10 layabout wrote: jarjar, vayne and sent look bad but i will go over all that stuff tomorrow Do you still plan to go over jarjar and vayne or have you changed your mind? Also, Vivax has been very forgettable, does anyone have a strong opinion on him? | ||
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On June 08 2013 00:48 WaveofShadow wrote: Ohai guise. I back. Random thought before I begin hardcore diving for the day. What if scum got cop (not necessarily Ace, but whatev), checked town Oats for whatever reason, and just happened to get miller back? This sets up a really good situation for them where a risky claim might lead to a miller lynch and a near town confirmation for a scum. Unlikely I know, but it might explain why Ace would attempt the trade....because if the above is true there would be no trade. Make of that what you will. Time to filter dive. #Wave'sconspiracytheories There is no way to distinguish between a scum fake claim and a scum cop checking a miller. Oats would flip town (not miller) either way and Ace would get lynched the next day. | ||
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On June 08 2013 02:06 Oatsmaster wrote: Kita, thoughts on huge post a few pages back where I say reads that arent Ace? You deserve a sticker. | ||
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On June 08 2013 02:25 Oatsmaster wrote: can you use your considerable influence to change the tide of this lynch? Generally I don't make a habit of convincing people to vote against me, but I'll consider it because of the <3. | ||
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On June 08 2013 03:57 VayneAuthority wrote: Im pretty much confirmed town after rayne flipped red, anyone pushing on me reminds me of goodkarma from the les mis game, except im goodkarma this game. If you feel that you are confirmed town, why were you running around like your head was cut off last night referencing non-existent vig shots? | ||
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On June 08 2013 04:05 WaveofShadow wrote: Regarding layabout: His thoughts have basically coincided with mine all game. I have absolutely no reason to think he is scum right now above other people. layabout's only real read is that Sent is scum, which conflicts with your own view. I'm not following your train of thought. I'm confused by layabout's reluctance to lynch into Ace/Oats, refusing to acknowledge that the kp is reduced with a mafia lynch. He shared multiple STRONG town reads on Ace prior to the cop claim, so it appears that his only reluctance is that both Ace and Oats are town. With a 8/9 chance of Oats not being a town Miller, he wants to lynch into a large pool players likely containing only two scum. A future check has an even better chance of getting impacted by the godfather/miller, a night hit, or a mafia cop. | ||
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On June 08 2013 05:01 WaveofShadow wrote: He gave a reason for his switch onto Ace. Read it. It's not a very good reason however. | ||
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On June 08 2013 01:18 Vivax wrote: Now, imagine Oats is scum and Sentinel too. That doesn't really fit, right? Sentinel has been pushing Oats throughout D1, then he added Vayne and prplhz as his scumreads, and ace revealed the cop check, and Sentinel thinks "Oh well two scummers are on another scummers' wagon so ace is scum", and Oats can't be scum. I think the alternative to this argument is that Sent's scum reads aren't actually legitimate and he is willing to push whatever doesn't lead to the dreaded 10v2 scenario. | ||
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On June 08 2013 08:26 Stutters695 wrote: Kita what do you think about that meta read? More an observation than a read in my opinion. I wouldn't put much value into it one way or the other. | ||
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Could you share your thoughts about who we should lynch tomorrow, beyond a couple one liners of suspicion? | ||
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On June 09 2013 02:02 WaveofShadow wrote: Not to mention the imp of the perverse just stuck his 3-pronged fork into my prefrontal cortex saying, "hey! What if Ace and Oats are both scum and this really is just one megascumplay. That would be the best scenario. Guaranteed 10v2 with all this blues? I'd take it in a heartbeat. | ||
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On June 09 2013 13:08 Ace wrote: Except I never list off all my town/scum reads. That's a known fact about me. Want to try again and actually respond to my last post? Give me one scum read outside of myself and an explanation why and I'll respond to your last post. | ||
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On June 09 2013 21:16 layabout wrote: Please copcheck Ace. layabout, do you have a town read on Ace? Ignoring whether or not the cop check makes sense as scum, point me to what makes you think Ace is town from the last 48 hours. It really bothers me that you are parroting Ace. On June 09 2013 23:17 Vivax wrote: I'm actually curious about Kita writing up points against ace during N1 and then preferring to lynch Oats. What's the point of me writing up a case against my scum buddy Ace and then having him cop claim 5 minutes later. I'd know he was cop claiming ahead of time so I'd obviously want to set myself up to side with him like everyone else. On June 09 2013 23:17 Vivax wrote: I didn't see where Oats made that flip-flop, so I would like Kita to show me where he got that notion On night one he wanted to lynch sent because he was convinced he scum slipped. After the cop check, he brought up that he wanted to lynch outside of Ace/himself and lynch prpl, before it was pointed out that we could reduce the mafia kp. | ||
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On June 09 2013 23:45 Vivax wrote: Can you link me to the post? I must have missed it <_< On June 06 2013 18:55 Oatsmaster wrote: No. Sent. The point is, in both of your scenarios, rayn flips red. There is no scenario where rayn flips green in your head. Thats where you scumslipped. On June 06 2013 21:38 Oatsmaster wrote: We lynching Sent tmr. On June 07 2013 10:34 Oatsmaster wrote: Ok how about we dont lynch me or ace today. WE LYNCH prp. YES! | ||
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On June 09 2013 23:57 Vivax wrote: Alright, didn't see that post. Are you sure it was after the claim? You asked Oats yourself why he thinks that prplhz is town, now you quote him saying he's scum. Yep, he changed his mind. | ||
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On June 10 2013 04:47 Ace wrote: kita, Wos here is a simple question: assume I am Scum. Why would I be begging you to check me for 2 days ahead of time to prove my innocence? Gotta start ahead of time knowing oats will flip town. | ||
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On June 10 2013 05:02 WaveofShadow wrote: Kita where dem big cases at, mang? Who is scum? Deadline posting. | ||
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On June 10 2013 06:14 Ace wrote: Read the thread. I've given 2 scum reads in the last day. This stuff isn't exactly hard to find. Could you clarify, who are those 2 individuals? | ||
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Based on the fact that Ace is trying to influence the cop, it seems somewhat likely that the cop is no part of the mafia team. Under the assumption that the mafia team lacked their strongest thread presence on day one with Ace being mostly afk. However, it should be noted that Ace was interested in saving Rayn. He simply did not have the votes to swing things in the final hour. When a mafia player goes out of their way to defend a player that is trailing the lynch by a large margin, it's usually not a solo effort. On June 06 2013 06:30 prplhz wrote: I'd lynch Oatsmaster over raynpelikoneet. On June 06 2013 07:00 prplhz wrote: Okay guys I don't think it's fair to lynch rainpelikoneet today simply because I think that his work excuse is legit. There are a lot of votes on him because of his relative inactivity which I don't like at all. The only reason to lynch raynpelikoneet is his VayneAuthority town read. That someone is very right about you should arouse some suspicion but I remember in that game where yamato77 smurfed he was really right about me and somehow that also made me get a very strong town read on him (he was scum I was town). I also don't think it's characteristic for scum to martyr in the way he does. There are no feelings in it, just some very collected thoughts about how "if you want to lynch me for inactivity then do it on day1 because it will not get better", that's actually very reasonable but it's not anything scum would say and I think scum would be much more emotional about martyring. In short, I think raynpelikoneet is a bad lynch today and I really don't think we should lynch him. He's actually contributing really well considering that it appears that he really doesn't have much time for this game and the weird VayneAuthority read is not enough to make me want to lynch him. prplhz also goes out of his way to defend rayn. He suggests that he would be open to an Oats lynch, despite not actually mentioning him earlier in the cycle. He acknowledge's Wave's case against rayn in this post..... On June 06 2013 01:32 prplhz wrote: I actually like WaveofShadow's case. ....But then later minimizes the reasoning against rayn. Furthermore, Vayne is prplz's preferred lynch throughout day one. Why at the end of the cycle, is he willing to consolidate to Oats (the 2nd most likely player to get lynched), instead of Vayne, the player that he has the strongest scum read on? JarJarDrinks actually defends rayn towards the end of the cycle too, but his interaction with Ace makes me lean town on him. Ace prompts JarJar for an alternative lynch, making it seem like a bait, rather than working together for a common goal. I'm torn on Vivax. He simply isn't suspicious of enough people to make me think he is town. I'd think a town Vivax would be more watchful of Ace, but I haven't seen it. He is quite mindful of his activity level, mentioning it multiple times in the thread. He jumps on, off, and back onto rayn as a follower, rather than a leader, which concerns me. I like Jay's interactions with Ace, so I'm leaning town on him. Wave has had a strong showing and probably should have earned himself a medic protection. Fuba comes out looking too good on the rayn lynch that I wouldn't consider him in the next couple of cycles. I'd like him to post more though. I think the vayne/rayn interaction makes me lean town on him, although not confirmed town like he claims. layabout would look quite bad in unlikely event that Ace actually flips town. He shares an extremely strong town read on Ace, yet is so hesitant to follow his cop check. He is quite concerned about the miller possibility, despite the odds. On June 07 2013 09:28 layabout wrote: I think he had decided to act like you're mafia fake-claiming instead of trying to work out what the best course of action is. This post comes off rather hostile, when I voted Ace at the start of day two. Scummy-null for him. Townie-null for stutters, but I haven't actually spent any time looking at him. Ace's cop claim makes more sense if Sent is mafia, since that would mean two mafia players were at the top as lynch candidates the previous cycle. The night kills on day one also seem to favor a mafia Sent. The reasoning give by sent to vote Ace really seems unnatural to me. Despite being near certain on vayne, his attempt to push the lynch is pretty weak. I'm aware that I posted mafia reads on four players, with only three remaining. prplhz Ace Vivax [UoN]Sentinel layabout (?) At least two of these players is town, but this is the group I believe we should lynch into, obviously starting with Ace. With any luck, one of them takes a night hit or cop check. As for who is my preferred lynch out of this group following Ace, I haven't decided yet. If I'm still alive tomorrow, I'll probably write up a more focused case. We need to make sure that we continue discussion tomorrow and not get caught up in any thread disruption or laziness. Look at the direction the mafia is trying to push the thread with the night hits and be willing to reevaluation your reads. Abuse the blue roles once mafia only has a single kp. I'm vanilla. Cop should claim last in my opinion, in case they have a red check on a player that claims non-vanilla (though we still lynch Ace). | ||
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On June 10 2013 08:09 Ace wrote: nice shot last night Kita. Couldn't have picked a better target myself. ![[image loading]](http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/images/smilies/applause.gif) I do what I can. ##Vote Ace | ||
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On June 05 2013 23:28 Vivax wrote: He has to make clear if and why he intends to stay on the WoS wagon after his initial vote which seems like a pressure vote. Other than that, he discussed strategies related to the setup. Not enough to go to make a read on him. This interaction with Ace was prompted by a question from Oats. Vivax isn't going into the thread to say that he has a problem with Ace's Wave vote, he is only stating it as a response. Vivax never comments on the flip flop by Ace at the end of day one. On June 06 2013 02:06 Vivax wrote: I agree, and after that last post it's likely to be Rayn. ##Vote Raynpeelikoneet All aboard the wagon of justice Vivax never contributed fresh ideas to the Rayn lynch. Again, he only confirms a statement from layabout after he is prompted for a read. Vivax seems much more interested in defending players than scum hunting. If I look through his filter, I struggle to find a player he wants to lynch after Ace. On June 09 2013 22:22 Vivax wrote: Got my chemistry oral tomorrow, otherwise I don't really give a fuck about this game, until this cop business is done I don't even need to analyze jack. Posts like these don't really reflect a town mentality and we certainly should continue discussion before the cop business is resolved. There is also the roleblocker claim on Vivax, but it is just as reasonable to think that Wave be hit (though it doesn't match up with the 3 other mafia hits) | ||
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On June 11 2013 01:51 Vivax wrote: Idk man, after that play by ace I think nothing's gonna surprise me anymore. Vayne was my scumread, but he has probably saved you so he's pseudo-confirmed. That leaves prplhz as my choice for the D4 lynch for his actions during the Rayn lynch, it should actually be pretty obvious: He found him suspicious, said he liked your case, and when Rayn came back to the thread he started defending him with the same arguments ace used, and cause he believed that Rayn was busy. The problem with the latter point is that prplhz found Rayn scummy for his defense of Vayne earlier, and that was unrelated to Rayn's activity, but Rayn's activity is what prplhz used to back off from his scumread, and that's why he is probably scum. You mentioned you had a town read on Sent. Assuming you also have town reads on Vayne and WoS, who are you looking at as the 4th scum? | ||
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On June 11 2013 04:13 Vivax wrote: Before I answer to that I want to hear your interpretation, or what your thoughts on that are. Because you didn't have a scum read on anyone? | ||
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On June 11 2013 04:48 prplhz wrote: I'm also around. Remaining scum team? | ||
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On June 11 2013 11:04 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: I died in smurf mini, the amount of effort I dedicate to this game is now 33%, up from 25%. Scum team? Do you still have a mafia read on Vayne? | ||
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On June 12 2013 03:30 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Ace Vayne ____ don't know my third pick yet prpl claims roleblock on Vivax. Vayne claims medic on Wave. Are you saying that mafia shot into the player they were protecting or that they double stacked last night? How wouldn't Vivax be scum if you have a mafia read on Vayne? | ||
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On June 12 2013 03:50 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Yeah I guess that would make sense. Maybe target #2 was a vet? Although none have come forward so maybe Vivax is scum after all... vet hasn't claimed yet has he? You're going to get lynched if you aren't up to date to the thread....although you probably are getting lynched either way. | ||
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On June 12 2013 04:32 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: I learned that a week and a half ago. Anyways, yolo Who is more scummy between prpl and Vivax? | ||
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On June 12 2013 08:08 VayneAuthority wrote: That would make literally zero sense, He was under no pressure as he stated so why would he get himself lynched then town goes right back to killing the bad players? If the bad players are lynched, mafia kp immediately drops to one and the game is next to over. Cop claim earns him a lynch and an extra kp and perhaps we forget about the people who are suspicious on night one. If he is in good standing and his scum buddies are in good standing, then why make a trade at all? Keep mislynching into victory. | ||
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On June 12 2013 08:15 VayneAuthority wrote: So are you softing that sentinel is surely scum? I know I am not scum so your theory is either wrong or you should just come out and say that. I think he just took it upon himself once he got the cop role to ensure some more deaths then leave it up to the others in good standing. The game is over anyway if me/sent are actually scum so I fail to see your logic. I've said that I thought sent was scum on numerous occasions. | ||
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On June 13 2013 09:26 mkfuba07 wrote: Yeah, sorry. I was doc, and I protected kita last night. <3 | ||
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On June 13 2013 21:54 prplhz wrote: I don't know right now. I think it's something that needs to be considered with only two mafia members remaining. If you had to take a guess? I assume you're saying that Sent rolled godfather last night? | ||
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On June 13 2013 22:28 prplhz wrote: because i didn't want to rb the one who everybody thought was scum because he was obviously not going to carry out the scum hit and i don't care what scum does with the rest of their roles So you think Ace was more likely to carry out the hit than Sent? | ||
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WaveofShadow (Innocent by n2) Vivax (Can't be scum with Sent) [UoN]Sentinel (Can't be scum with Vivax) VayneAuthority (Innocent by n2) s0Lstice kitaman27 (Not your working theory) So any preference between these individuals for the final mafia member? jaybrundage Stutters695 layabout mkfuba07 | ||
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On June 14 2013 00:52 WaveofShadow wrote: Ugh so now on top of determining who is confirmed town based on PR analysis we have to take into account that they might have gambled on N2 and given both shots to one person? I don't know. Kita you've played scum more than I have. Is that a likely scenario? It's not something I would risk in a setup with a roleblocker. I'd also warn against trying to consider a player "confirmed town" based on PR analysis. What are your thoughts about prpl coming up with a case against Vivax, roleblocking Vivax, and suddenly concluding that a case from two days ago on a player that is "checked" green is the best lynch? | ||
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On June 06 2013 06:38 Ace wrote: well everyone is afk and the lynch is in an hour and a half. On June 06 2013 07:03 prplhz wrote: There's still an hour left so people give a holla if you're around. | ||
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On June 13 2013 09:20 Stutters695 wrote: I think I'd rather see sent flip, but I can get behind this for now ##vote: Vivax Gonna do some filter diving, playing two games with multiple people is getting me all sorts of fucked up. On June 13 2013 11:00 Stutters695 wrote: Protip lynch prpl if vivax flips town. There is a reason I made a case on him d1 These posts also concern me. Sutters indicates he wants to vote Sent, but votes Vivax instead. He also states that a mislynch on Vivax should result in a prpl lynch, but doesn't seem to consider a prpl lynch today. | ||
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On June 14 2013 01:20 WaveofShadow wrote: Kita do you think the last 2 scum are amongst vivax/sent/prpl? The most obvious scenario is that Sent/Vivax are scumbuddies. Vivax roles mafia cop, realizes that Sent was roleblocked, and claims to save him because otherwise he is almost certainly getting lynched. Right now, I'm trying to cover the scenarios that get us in trouble if we don't end the game with the 4+ mislynches we probably have available. On June 14 2013 02:06 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: I'm pretty sure I implied the opposite of that. Hmm? Also, how come you aren't worried that I might be scum? | ||
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On June 14 2013 02:21 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: EBWOP Are you referring to this post? On June 12 2013 03:50 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Yeah I guess that would make sense. Maybe target #2 was a vet? Although none have come forward so maybe Vivax is scum after all... vet hasn't claimed yet has he? I'm referring to this post. Nothing really for you to add though. Do you think I could be scum? On June 14 2013 02:19 WaveofShadow wrote: Kita did you read my dive into Vivax? You really think the scumteam has been going all out to save Sentinel of all people? I think Ace claimed to preserve the second mafia kp, which makes the most sense if sent is scum. Suppose you are the mafia cop Vivax with Sent, Sent gets roleblocked and there is a missing kp, do you think trying to go 8v1 is the easier option? | ||
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I was in the lol liquid chatroom and saw you, me, and Wave all join within like two minutes and started wondering if I had missed the memo about our scum meeting :p I'm hesitant to lynch Sent before Vivax due to the claim. If it turns out Vivax is telling the truth, then its something to consider if the cop checks starting piling up on players making more people innocent than it makes sense. | ||
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On June 14 2013 04:24 jaybrundage wrote: What do you think of the possibility of Sent just rolling Miller. It would be pretty convenient. But 1 out of 6 isn't that big of a chance. I just can't see him as town. Mafia miller sent and town vivax is small enough of a chance that I'd rather deal with the 2nd mafia member first. On June 14 2013 04:25 jaybrundage wrote: Also what's your ign i didn't know you played lol :D Same as TL. :p | ||
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Either Vivax is lying about his check, Sent is town, or there 17% chance that he rolled godfather. In each scenario, it makes more sense to lynch someone else first. Between Vivax and prpl, I think Vivax is more likely to flip mafia. ##Vote Vivax | ||
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On June 10 2013 05:39 Ace wrote: Stutters if you're still around I've got a question for you On June 10 2013 05:57 Ace wrote: Aww I'll take that as a compliment. Although I'd like you to point what is so un-Town like about me this game. So here's my question. Imagine you get cop night 1 this game. Your top scum read comes back with a red check. You are under no pressure of getting lynched. Would you claim? In essence tell me what you would have done differently than I did because this isn't making sense to me. Do you think that Ace is trying to convince his own scum buddy to do something? | ||
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On June 15 2013 03:32 jaybrundage wrote: I dived Vivax's filter and i didn't find anything that makes me think he has a better chance to flip scum then sent. Given his day 1 play. I had a town read on him. Afterwards his lack of posting kinda worried me. But recently he has picked up again. I see the point about him being roleblocked and the KP not showing up. But the doctor could also be the cause of that. I'm sure scum want to kill the people keeping this town active cause if they died we would be in for a rougher time. I think Sent has a more likely to flip scum given the way he has played to this point. So kita why are you voting Vivax? When Sent flips, we probably lynch Vivax/prpl, regardless if sent is town or mafia. Right now I'm looking at the scenarios where we lose at lylo and I think a Vivax lynch puts us in a better position. Vivax hasn't done anything for town outside of analyzing night actions involving himself to create possible mafia team scenarios. Knowing his alignment gives us the most information, plus we lynch a scummy player. | ||
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On June 15 2013 07:05 Vivax wrote: Kita, since you're eager to lynch me for information, could you tell me how you plan to draw conclusions about prplhz from my flip? You're his super duper mafia read, he roleblocks you, he writes a case against you, and then votes sent. | ||
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I have a stronger scum read on Vivax. | ||
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It's going to really suck if Vayne didn't send a cop check in. Anyways, I'll be back later today with thoughts. | ||
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On June 15 2013 06:43 layabout wrote: The case on stutters seems okay but i have kind of stopped playing The last green check player who quit playing got lynched. It seems to me that prpl and Vivax are the most likely to get lynched this cycle, but I think there still warrants discussion about stutters, vayne, and jay. The case against prpl is that he starts off the game as a try hard, going out of his way to not be consider for a day one lurker lynch. prpl goes out of his way to defend rayn at a point where there was at least one other mafia player who was attempting to shift the lynch off of him. He acknowledges the merits of WoS's case against rayn, then suddenly flip flops deciding that he is a poor lynch. He states there is only one reason to lynch rayn, yet fails to take into consideration the case from WoS that he already acknowledged. He makes a post about activity at the end of the cycle when attempting to swing things, similar to Ace. On June 08 2013 15:05 Ace wrote: I don't see why anyone would want to lynch prp right now. In his only real interaction with prpl, Ace defends him. prpl has called Vivax obviously mafia, has chosen to roleblock Vivax as a player likely to carry out the mafia kp, has written up a case against Vivax, yet minutes later decided to vote for Sent. After the green check on sent is pointed out, prpl refuses to reconsider, passing it up as a green check. Furthermore, he argues that both Sent and Vivax cannot be scum, but refuses to acknowledge a scenario where Sent is town. prpl has shown little interest in solving the game and was unable to provide a second scum read. Nearly 24 hours into today, he hasn't put any effort into pushing someone. On June 13 2013 22:42 prplhz wrote: hmm wait if there was a kill on n2 then vivax is actually absolved by the rb because scum would probably put both kp on one of their members and since there was a kill (JJD) that one can't be vivax Finally, prpl has knowledge of the scum kp mechanic, allowing mafia players to carry out multiple hits with the same player. As someone who has played/obs'd 100+ games, this is something extremely rare and not something you would just assume looking at the setup. ##Vote prplhz That being said, I'd really like to hear more people. I don't think anyone has really given an opinion on Jay this game. Do people think Vivax is a better lynch? Is there a second player that would make sense as scum with prpl? | ||
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WE'RE ON TO YOU! | ||
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On June 17 2013 08:00 VayneAuthority wrote: Now we have the actually difficult decision of lynching prphlz or vivax, where as we could have just lynched both before. I am going to stick with my vote. ##vote:vivax Last cycle you said your vote was on Vivax because it gave info about Sent. Now that sent has flipped, what is your case against Vivax? | ||
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On June 17 2013 08:22 VayneAuthority wrote: Vivax's flip gives info on sent because he can confirm if town vivax gave a town cop on sent which makes him look a lot better. Nothing changes with sent flipping town because scum vivax could do either alignment on him and it wouldn't matter one bit. That is why I am frankly upset that the sentinel lynch went through given how things went down but no need to harp on it, time to move on. Thoughts on Vivax's scum buddy? | ||
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Why is activity so terrible today? | ||
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On June 17 2013 21:06 kitaman27 wrote: So what is the most likely scum team Vivax? | ||
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On June 04 2013 19:25 prplhz wrote: hey i'm trying to post more because usually i get brought up as a lurker lynch On June 18 2013 06:22 prplhz wrote: hey guys i'm not going to write anything substantial | ||
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On June 18 2013 06:38 prplhz wrote: that's really the only point in the cases that i think is even worth adressing because the rest is weird conjecturing about how i do this and that and doesn't point at scum at all. just gonna take whateverthefuck from kita's case "prplhz is scum because he didn't push anything in first 24 hours of d4", well neither did anybody else lol. so we're all scum? My argument was that you called vivax obvious scum, roleblocked him, wrote a case against him, and then decided to vote for the green check. The only relevant case you've written in the past 96 hours is against Vivax, and its questionable whether you even think he is scum. | ||
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On June 18 2013 10:38 WaveofShadow wrote: Fuck my brain. I know I'm like...ALWAYS wrong with my conspiracy theory stuff, but I'm almost certain now scum has withheld a shot at some point. If it was the shot on N3 then it means both Fuba and Kita are likely scum, and would fit with the idea that Ace sacced himself because he had a capable scumteam and the 'confirmed town' status that Ace gave to fuba before he decided to essentially off himself. It is becoming increasingly apparent to me that this is one of those games where the scumteam is blending incredibly well, tryharding like a boss (increasingly common in games I've been in lately), and letting bad townies be bad. In this case 2 scum among Vivax/kita/fuba. If me and fuba are scumbuddies, that would mean mafia withheld kp on N3 and shot himself to remove the vet on N4, which would be incredibly silly in a setup with a cop. If fuba is scum and I'm not, that would still mean mafia withheld kp on N3 and shot himself to remove the vet on N4, which would be incredibly silly in a setup with a cop. If I'm scum and fuba is town, that would mean I withheld kp on N3, guessing that I would be the one medic protected, then proceeded to shoot the player that just saved me from a hit on N4. If you're going to come up with conspiracy theories, at least look at the ones that could be plausible like Jay. @Jay, the indifference between prpl and Vivax from vayne was really scummy. He warrants attention for that reason alone. With a scum cop, an ignored cop, and an afk cop, I really hope we can pull off a good check tonight. We've been dancing around a Vivax lynch for far too long and really should have killed him two days ago. I think he's my preferred lynch, but I'm going to reread when I have the chance. We can't all wait until the day is 3/4th of the way over to start discussion. The last two townies have gone down without much of a fight, so everyone really needs to get involved and share their thoughts, rather than jumping on the bandwagon of the day. | ||
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On June 19 2013 02:23 mkfuba07 wrote: Would you be able to direct me to the best case against vivax please? Or just quickly outline it, as I'm going to go through his filter soon? I still think it's unlikely for him to give sentinel a town check when he could have given it to practically anyone. Well he could only really check Sent or prpl and get away with it and both would come up town. It's not like a town check on you or Wave would make much sense from his perspective. I suppose he could have hidden the cop, but a green check on a player he had already wrote a case as being town makes him look good. It's not like the green check saved a mislynch -_- I'll summarize my earlier case tonight. | ||
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On June 19 2013 02:38 mkfuba07 wrote: Why could he only have given sent or prplhz a town check? He could call anyone that isn't his scumpartner town and be perfectly safe. A cop isn't going to check a player that is widely considered town. He could have checked into the pool of players like vayne or stutters that were closer to null, but not lynch candidates, but then everyone wants to know why isn't checking his scum read prpl or the number one player that town wanted to lynch with sent. | ||
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On June 19 2013 03:29 VayneAuthority wrote: I mean I feel like kita has to be town Ruh roh. Whenever people start posting that at night, I find myself dead a few hours later. | ||
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On June 19 2013 03:36 VayneAuthority wrote: you seem to be the only other person on the same wavelength as me You can buddy me all night long <3 | ||
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On June 19 2013 09:39 Vivax wrote: Currently the only guy who could be scum considering night actions and excluding powerplays is stutters. Considering there are two mafia players remaining, who would be your best guess for the second? The possible scenarios are extremely limited without a scum Vivax. | ||
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On June 20 2013 01:54 mkfuba07 wrote: Oh god, what the hell was wrong with me yesterday. If I don't think scum withheld kp, then either vayne or vivax is scum, right? Both Vivax and Vayne are tied to the N2 action, where Vivax was roleblocked and Vayne claimed to have protected WoS. | ||
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On June 20 2013 03:31 jaybrundage wrote: I wanna lynch Vayne still. He has done hella scummy things. And given WoS's theory on scum using blue roles it would make sense that he would hold the shot and claim he doc protected someone. I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. If mafia is going to double stack a target, I don't think JarJarDinks would have been who they decided to use it on. A double stack on fuba or WoS would have made much more sense, while accomplishing the same goal. Vivax and/or Vayne could still be scum, but I don't think that's the argument I'd want to push. I've been pressed for time today, but tonight I'll try to be decided on a vote. | ||
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On June 20 2013 04:37 VayneAuthority wrote: go back into my filter, I already said exactly what would happen. Jay or fuba wanted to put their suspicion on me yesterday but were content to stay on prphlz to setup my mislynch for today. That's not a very good reason. | ||
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I still feel that too many people have town reads on Vivax without explanations. Can anyone point it out to me? | ||
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On June 20 2013 05:16 jaybrundage wrote: I have trouble reading Vivax. I had a town read on him day 1 for defending me and helping make sure i wasn't the day 1 mislynch. But as his activity wavered i began to doubt my early read on him and that he could be scum. However there was people I was alot more sure were scum. Sent and then prplhz. It just seems hard to pin anything scummy on him. He has been having a fairly straight forward game with lower activity then I like. The biggest thing that i think can implicate him is that he was roleblocked when there was no shot. But the same thing happened to Sent and Sent turned out to not be scum. Ill go over Vivax again. But it just seems like most of the case against him. Is based on blue's and KP instead of actually content in his filter. Also the fact that WoS mentioned scum messing with blue roles or faking using them. Made me really suspicious about people that were "confirmed town" via blue roles. With all the no shots going on. Isn't it likely that scum just held a shot off one day or decided to use a blue role to get town cred for the late game. The scum have done a solid job so far blending in. I wouldnt put it past this scum team to lost KP to gain towncred late game. Thats why I think Vayne is a more likely candidate as well. None of this really tells me why you think Vivax is town. Or do you not have a town read on him? | ||
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On June 20 2013 05:32 jaybrundage wrote: So you think it doesn't make sense to hold a KP when your scum team rolls doctor so you can get free town cred for late game. Lemme guess you don't think scum manipulated any blue rolls at all right. We should just take them at face value as infallible truths./sarcasm Is that truly what you believe I think it's a terrible idea to withhold kp when your scum team rolls doctor. I'd consider that the mafia team would double stack a player. Do you think JarJar is a likely double stack target? | ||
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On June 20 2013 06:18 jaybrundage wrote: So wouldn't that mean that its a good idea for scum to do it. Because it would make you think there town? I don't think JJD was a likely double stack target but again thats not my angle. I could provide fake red dt checks on my scum buddies for three days in a row, everyone is going to think I'm town, but that doesn't mean it's a good idea. What makes you think they would withhold over double stacking? In both scenarios, you are missing a kp, the medic can claim the missing kp, except in the double stacking scenario, a successful roleblock doesn't lead to a guaranteed scum lynch, you won't have to worry about the vet, and you can choose the best target for the stack. | ||
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Day One: Vivax asks plenty of questions, but shares very few opinions. layabout directly asks Vivax about the WoS bandwagon and Vivax agrees to vote rayn without providing much of a reason. He puts no effort into pushing rayn. Day Two: Vivax votes Oats, without questioning Ace, but I'm fine with that. However, rather than scum hunting this cycle, he uses the opportunity to write a case defending Sent. A scum Vivax would know Oats is flipping town, Ace is getting lynched the next cycle, and there are going to be two cop checks coming up before the next lynch. Sent is almost certainly going to be one of the cop checks. He uses this opportunity to defend a player that is not going to get lynched for at least two days and will be checked in order to earn town cred. Vivax puts no effort into scum hunting this cycle. Day Three: Vivax votes Ace and mentions that Vayne was his scumread, but based on the N2 actions, he is town. The strange part about this? Vivax hadn't mentioned Vayne in 100+ hours. It is as if he is trying to renforce the idea that a town Vivax must think Vayne is town, so he is going to reverse a non-existant scum read. Vivax suddenly comes up with a scum read on prplhz after the roleblock, stating that it is pretty obvious that he is scum. If it is so obvious, why isn't there a case or even a mention prior to the night action which makes him guilty. He also shares suspicion of myself. Day Four: I shared my suspicion of Vivax the previous cycle and ended up likely getting targeted by a night hit based on fuba's claim. Night three Vivax checks the player he spent such a long time defending in Sent, rather than his top two scum reads in prpl and myself. He described prpl as "pretty obvious" scum, yet refused to use a cop check on him in a game with only two mafia players remaining. What town player uses a cop check on his town read, rather than his scum read? He argues that he was worried Sent would be mislynched. Sent is not going to get mislynched if he comes up with a red check on prpl. Furthermore, he gains town cred for his earlier defense of Sent after providing the town check. After calling prpl obvious scum the previous night, he puts rather little effort into lynching prpl. As the Sent mislynch starts to build steam, he switches to stutters. In fact, when layabout shares interest in lynching prpl, Vivax describes the prpl lynch as "not going anywhere". Vivax as a green check on Sent, he has an obvious scum read on prpl, yet he is putting very little effort into convincing the town to lynch prpl. Instead, he leaves the prpl mislynch open for the following cycle, preventing him from having to come up with an additional scum read. Day Five: Vivax votes prpl later on in the cycle, but puts little effort into convincing others. He comes up with a scum team based on the limits of his night actions, but doesn't do anything about it. Day Six: Vivax has put absolutely no effort into defending the Vayne lynch, a player which he would strong think to be town from his perspective. He comes up with a mafia suspect in stutters, but puts no effort into lynching him, with lylo only a cycle away. He is unable to come up with a second mafia suspect and doesn't even attempt to come up with a plausible scenario. Night Two: Several people seem to think that the most likely scenario is that JarJar was double stacked on night two. If mafia had control the of medic, where are they continuing to target a low profile player if they have an easy shot on fuba or WoS? Why not double stack fuba if they can still pull off the medic protect claim? A roleblocked Vivax is the most simple answer and those are usually the right ones. Even if you don't take into account the blue actions, take a look at how little Vivax cares this game. Vivax is a high post count town player who has opinions about everyone, will spend time getting his preferred player lynched and is correct about his reads more often than not. Vivax this game hasn't went all out to push a single lynch, does not appear to be interested in solving the game, and chose a scummy night three cop check. He has been dodging lynch after lynch without contributing anything. ##Unvote ##Vote Vivax | ||
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On June 20 2013 10:56 layabout wrote: kita why did you vote for vayne earlier? I was hoping he would call me names | ||
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On June 20 2013 11:20 layabout wrote: @kita why is vivax being roleblocked more likely than WoS being saved? Because I have a scum read on Vivax based on the post I have provided. WoS being saved doesn't make Vivax innocent anyways. He didn't have to be the one carrying out the kp, even though I think he did. On June 20 2013 11:20 layabout wrote: why are you placing so much emphasis on activity when vivax said pregame that he had finals and wouldn't be posting a lot and when activity has been poor across the board? I've placing emphasis on motives, not activity. Show me where Vivax expresses a town motivation to get his preferred scum suspect lynched. I can understand that he is busy with finals, but with zero lynches pushed on day six, am I supposed to just assume he is town because he has an excuse for not posting? On June 20 2013 11:20 layabout wrote: Why would he need to put effort in as either alignment when everyone jumped on board? Town players care about solving the game. They present possible scenarios and show an interest in moving things forward. Vivax shows up at the end of the day, posts a one liner about Jay and disappears. On June 20 2013 11:20 layabout wrote: Why have you written all of this when Vivax hasn't posted since the very start of the day? You are trying to draw a connection that doesn't exist. Just a few hours early, you mentioned how Vivax needs to be posting because he has a green check on his only scum read. Am I supposed to wait until a few hours before the lynch when Vivax shows up to vote for Stutters with a one line explanation? On June 20 2013 11:20 layabout wrote: I don't like the smell of your case kita. Are you saying that I'm scum? Are you saying Vivax is town? | ||
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On June 21 2013 00:02 layabout wrote: Kita's case feels like he is trying manipulate the thread with shaky reasoning that looks neat and convincing if you skim over it. If my argument uses shaky reasoning can you please provide counter examples? Does Vivax push people to lynch rayn day one aside from a couple one liners? Is it reasonable for him to not check he player he thinks is obviously scum? Does Vivax go all out to push a prpl lynch on d4 after coming back with a green check on sent? In the last two cycles has Vivax provided scum suspects outside of night action analysis? | ||
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On June 21 2013 01:12 layabout wrote: 1 "aside from a couple of one-liners". So your saying he did push rayne but not that hard? Correct. It wasn't clear that he wanted to lynch rayn because he had a strong scum read, rather than he didn't have much other choice. On June 21 2013 01:12 layabout wrote: 4 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=18918706 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=18924960 he seems to have a scumread on vayne, who he has pushed today. The problem is that vayne was one of his strongest town reads the past three cycles and he never explains what he think happened with the N2 actions. I'd hardly say he is pushing vayne considering he never calls him scum, nor votes for him. It was more of a defense post. | ||
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On June 21 2013 02:20 Vivax wrote: I am currently put in front of these scenarios: - stutters is scum if I take all actions at face value. Uhh, what happened to this one? | ||
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On June 21 2013 02:29 Vivax wrote: I went to thinking he's town, and I decided to not take all actions at face value. Didn't eat that sandwich didn't you. Will eating a sandwich make me feel better about the fact that you don't actually mention why Jay is scum? Everything is about night action analysis with you. You say that you think Jay rolled godfather, but never actually explain why. You never explain why he is a better lynch than vayne. You never explain why a vayne/Jay scum team makes sense. | ||
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Can you explain to me why you eliminated Vayne/Stutters as an option? | ||
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On June 21 2013 03:18 Vivax wrote: I can't really eliminate stutters, that's correct, I decided I'd roll with town since his explanation for the Fuba save, mainly. Am I misinterpreting this statement? | ||
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On June 17 2013 22:53 Stutters695 wrote: I'm awake. Sorry I wasn't here yesterday, spent the day with my girlfriend's father. Anyway I attempted to medic Fuba for two main reasons. 1) Kita was such an obvious save that I figured scum would avoid him after two night phases ago when it seems Kita was pretty likely to have been hit. 2) so after deciding that I wouldn't save Kita, it came down to layabout, Fuba or WoS by virtue of them being town enough that they aren't going to get lynched but not obvious enough of a save that scum would think it would go through. I based this off of their previous kills. Then I just gut picked Fuba because he's who I would shoot in that position as scum. Is this the post that you are referencing that is so detailed and convincing that you would prefer to vote for your cop (80%) green check? I guess we would have to disagree on that one. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 18 2013 09:54 VayneAuthority wrote: If people want to policy lynch me, go ahead! won't make me or you any better at this game. [QUOTE]On June 20 2013 04:56 VayneAuthority wrote: it's the truth, and at least I get the satisfaction of seeing the dumbass look on the rest of the town's face when I flip green./quote] [QUOTE]On June 20 2013 04:56 VayneAuthority wrote: This game is too easy yawn. Time to see if any other dumb townies fall for it I guess.[/quote] [QUOTE]On June 20 2013 04:56 VayneAuthority wrote: might as well consider it gamethrowing at this point[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On June 20 2013 05:12 VayneAuthority wrote: I am going to seriously laugh if you are town, i would shit my pants lol[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On June 20 2013 09:00 VayneAuthority wrote: really dude if you're town I never want to play with you again. Your logic is so trash tier I lose brain cells every time I read a post by you.[/QUOTE] So Vayne, what is the point of these appeals to emotion if you are town? You must know that it is a common mafia tactic, so why would you consider emulating it as town? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 18 2013 09:54 VayneAuthority wrote: If people want to policy lynch me, go ahead! won't make me or you any better at this game. On June 20 2013 04:56 VayneAuthority wrote: it's the truth, and at least I get the satisfaction of seeing the dumbass look on the rest of the town's face when I flip green. On June 20 2013 04:56 VayneAuthority wrote: This game is too easy yawn. Time to see if any other dumb townies fall for it I guess. On June 20 2013 04:56 VayneAuthority wrote: might as well consider it gamethrowing at this point On June 20 2013 05:12 VayneAuthority wrote: I am going to seriously laugh if you are town, i would shit my pants lol On June 20 2013 09:00 VayneAuthority wrote: really dude if you're town I never want to play with you again. Your logic is so trash tier I lose brain cells every time I read a post by you. So Vayne, what is the point of these appeals to emotion if you are town? You must know that it is a common mafia tactic, so why would you consider emulating it as town? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 26 2013 06:12 VayneAuthority wrote: Martyring is one of the biggest scumtraits of all time, cant tell if srs. People use it all the time to ATE to avoid being lynched like you have been all game. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 10 2013 08:20 kitaman27 wrote: I'm also quite suspicious that Ace is a closet Heat fan. IT ALL MAKES SENSE NOW. ACE'S SCUM BUDDY IS A HEAT PLAYER! Game solved. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Shall we provide targets for our blue roles? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
I think ensuring the roleblocker and cop do not overlap should be a priority. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
The d2 scum cop check was interesting, but I think the mafia team would have been better off not claiming it all all. I also think that the roleblocker was pretty town favored and I don't really understand why they wanted to keep it around. Oats did a really good job on d2 trying to prove his innocence despite the cop check. The Sent lynch was really bad, but I guess it goes to show how dangerous going afk can be even with a green check. I still probably would have ended up lynching prpl, but Vivax obviously should have been lynched first. The fact that prpl was defending Vivax really bothered me, but there was no reason to let Vivax live another day. Vivax and Jay did well to look town for most of the game, but the night actions probably lost them the game by shooting into the medic protect and medic protect/vet. Fuba/Wos probably should have been shot the night that the mafia had control of the medic to make things a lot easier. | ||
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