Roulette Mini Mafia

On June 04 2013 10:55 Stutters695 wrote:
Well it's obviously a secondary strategy behind just catching scum but I don't see any reason not to report after each night.

On June 04 2013 11:02 Ace wrote:


read the OP? The powers get returned to the pool the next day.

On June 04 2013 20:01 prplhz wrote:

Why did you vote me first then?

On June 04 2013 23:30 layabout wrote:
So far jaybrundage has agreed with claiming (which we are treating as a no-brainer), he has posted general advice, joked around and then said he doesn't need reasons to justify his actions. It's empty and unhelpful.

I don't see anybody that looks worse. Vayneauthority said he would do stuff and didn't but it's not been a long time since then.

On June 05 2013 01:02 Stutters695 wrote:

I'm awake and caught up on the like fifteen posts.

Seriously, what are you doing at all then? Care to contribute?


##Vote: Oatsmaster

On June 05 2013 15:29 VayneAuthority wrote:


because hes useful if he decides to try later, no point mislynching him when there's a good chance mafia will kill him for us if he's not scum.

On June 05 2013 21:39 JarJarDrinks wrote:
##Vote Oatsmaster

His gung-ho Ace-is-def-scum-guys push seems so contrived. I can't imagine he can actually act so cocksure, especially when his reasons are so weak. Here's his reasoning (which btw came 12 hours after his vote):
I don't want to really defend Ace since he isn't exactly playing pro-town, but these reasons are terrible:

- "His contributions have been setup speculation" - Ace just made one post saying we should claim and report results. Oats was the one prodding him further which forced Ace to talk more about it

- "random vote on WoS." - OK, I'll agree w/ this one. Random votes are lame. I'd like to see him explain if he actually has a reason for voting WoS or if it was truly random.

- "defending mkfuba for basically no reason." Here's the post he's talking about:His "Scum love to defend people cause it makes them look good." is dumb. How is that post supposed to make Ace look good? Ace was specifically asked what he thought and he answered. How can that possibly be seen as scummy? Not to mention the fact that there's plenty of people posting "defences" for other people

- "His contributions have been setup speculation" - Ace just made one post saying we should claim and report results. Oats was the one prodding him further which forced Ace to talk more about it

His "Scum love to defend people cause it makes them look good." is dumb. How is that post supposed to make Ace look good? Ace was specifically asked what he thought and he answered. How can that possibly be seen as scummy? Not to mention the fact that there's plenty of people posting "defences" for other people

On June 05 2013 22:18 Zephirdd wrote:
##unvote
##vote Oatsmaster

Idk what you're doing, but you've shown a better town play as scum. This is ridiculous.

Besides, wos has been active enough and posting enough, and the three other votes on him suck. Its a bad wagon.

On June 05 2013 22:22 Zephirdd wrote:

Yes. Totally. You broke the fucking game, gratz.

On June 05 2013 22:22 Zephirdd wrote:


The same reasoning of "kill marv if he is alive by day 3"

You voted him without explaining your vote. Something that you're accusing him of. Yes, you eventually gave your weak reasoning. I don't buy how you can be so sure of yourself with such a bad case. I feel like it's an act.

And here's something else you accused him of while doing the same thing:So does defending 2 players in the same post make you like twice as likely to be scum?

you've played as a better town when you were scum => you are playing a worse town this game => you have to be scum

Your case on Ace is bad, whenever someone finds your cases bad and they vote you you call them scum, you even complained about omgus when you just did the same thing to me, JJD even pointed out a contradiction on the whole "defense" thing. You had about no contribution during the first 24 hours and now you come into the thread storming and trying to get Ace - arguably the one guy who makes no difference on day 1 but makes a lot day 2 onwards. Ace, over Sentinel, rayn, JJD, fuba, prplhz etc etc etc etc

(disclaimer: above list is not my list of scum reads)

Oats, tell us why should we kill Ace over any other player in the game considering he is not the only one being semi-inactive. Compare him to Sentinel, for instance.

Actually, Sentinel is pretty terrible here too lol.

He has to make clear if and why he intends to stay on the WoS wagon after his initial vote which seems like a pressure vote. Other than that, he discussed strategies related to the setup. Not enough to go to make a read on him.

On June 05 2013 23:35 WaveofShadow wrote:
Ace is early lynchbait imo (The Game, Ego mini)
I don't want him dead.
Yet.

I was also thinking of looking into Rayn and Sentinel. I'm not sure how likely it is that they're both scum since they're the last two who jumped on me. Again, proper analysis to follow soon when I can.

On June 05 2013 23:40 prplhz wrote:
@Oatsmaster I really doubt you're getting Ace lynched today no matter how you feel about it. Who'd you prefer that we lynch instead?

On June 05 2013 23:51 Zephirdd wrote:
because Ace's alignment is easier to determine on day 2 onwards and because, if he is town, mafia is likely to kill him either way. The longer he survives as town, the better it is for town(since he is a good player), and if he is surviving too long then it probably means he is mafia.

On June 06 2013 00:16 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
OK first off the Vayne vote was a joke. That much should be obvious.

I was wrong about WoS being a scum given his more recent posting. He seems to be more focused on finding scum now that D1 is in full swing.

So now we have Oats who has little content and sheeps anyone who isn't Ace. And Ace doesn't even look scum.

[##Unvote]
[##Vote Oatsmaster]

On June 06 2013 11:10 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:


pls be quiet scum

i am making jokes selected from jon stewart's finest

Me being afk doesn't mean I'm scum though. The minute I came back I was active and even voted for rayne. I only attempted to switch off when we established rayne might be an inactivity lynch.

On June 06 2013 19:40 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:

I was certain by that point that he was red. Just a matter of voting for him or not.

On June 06 2013 22:50 WaveofShadow wrote:

I know its hard to be objective since I was scum but I want to say I wouldn't have lynched BH in that game.
What do you mean you'll lynch whoever he wants? Assuming he is town, I can't say I'd trust his reads enough to do that. That being said I agree that Sent really needs to pick up his play.

Vayne too imo. Still want to hear what he has to say about me making long cases that are wrong?

On June 07 2013 00:18 slOosh wrote:


Oats 2 pro, plz accept wool!

On June 07 2013 09:06 JarJarDrinks wrote:

Good Job Ace. He actually had changed my mind somewhat overnight so I'm glad you checked him.

On June 07 2013 09:18 Ace wrote:
Oats I already called you out on this: you said I wasn't scumhunting as if that is proof that I must be Scum when I wasn't even here. And you've played enough games here to know better. In every game the last few months here I've been lynched when I was afk. Re-read your filter Oats: it's pretty much shouting my name with no good reasoning. I even asked you why did you single me out and not call out anyone else that wasn't around.



I don't understand why you're asking me this. Where did I ever say scum would fakeclaim?

On June 07 2013 09:19 Ace wrote:


Just to make this exceedingly simple: If I'm Scum fakeclaiming just investigate me tonight.

On June 07 2013 09:27 JarJarDrinks wrote:
Because you were agreeing w/ me about Sent and his scumslip. I was pretty convinced that Sent was scum and would almost surely be voting him now if Ace hadn't caught you. But now I see that you were sheeping me because my read was off. Or perhaps you were bussing but I think that's way less likely @ this point.

On June 07 2013 10:26 mkfuba07 wrote:

Not sure it's fair to say ace is scummier for trying to derail the lynch, when oats was doing the same thing. The only difference is that oats was in position to do it before the wagon started going, while ace got apprehensive and pulled out. It's not like oats stopped trying to push ace when rayn was set to be lynched.

On June 07 2013 10:48 WaveofShadow wrote:

What would make you think he was town?

On June 07 2013 11:10 layabout wrote:

We should lynch somebody else.

On June 07 2013 11:16 JarJarDrinks wrote:
Yep.

Just taking the #s into account. Odds of mafia getting cop are so much less then then town getting cop.

Then, I fail to see a reason for a scum Ace to lie here. Just to get a single mislych? How is that a good scum play? Scum gets a blue role and THAT's how they try to utilize it?

And then there's the fact that I think you look alot scummier than Ace. I may have started to doubt my initial scumread on you, but I've never had a scumread on Ace

On June 07 2013 11:22 VayneAuthority wrote:


An insanely small chance. (Which I guess would fit this game so far)

On June 07 2013 11:23 kitaman27 wrote:


Vayne is correct. We 100% lynch between one of the two to reduce the kp.

bbl.

On June 07 2013 11:24 kitaman27 wrote:


Make me.

Were you serious about wanting to lynch prpl?

On June 07 2013 11:26 kitaman27 wrote:


So you think Ace pulled off a miller check on you or that the better option is to wait and get a second check before resolving things?

On June 07 2013 11:28 kitaman27 wrote:


So why are you suggesting that we lynch prpl?

On June 07 2013 11:32 kitaman27 wrote:


But didn't you just suggest we not lynch Ace?

On June 07 2013 14:03 VayneAuthority wrote:


The day is young and it's late here so im going to bed but im leaning towards lynching oats at this point as town getting cop is more likely than scum getting it. People hate that I play like that but yea. Percentages all day.

On June 07 2013 17:18 prplhz wrote:
This really doesn't seem like anything Ace would attempt as scum.

##Vote Oatsmaster

On June 07 2013 17:20 Oatsmaster wrote:

And Ace, arguably the best scum player on the forums would do this why?

On June 07 2013 17:18 prplhz wrote:
This really doesn't seem like anything Ace would attempt as scum.

##Vote Oatsmaster

On June 07 2013 19:47 prplhz wrote:
@[UoN]Sentinel Can you explain your vote for Ace please?

On June 07 2013 14:11 jaybrundage wrote:
@Oats I would like it if you write up a bit why you think prlphz is scum.

On June 06 2013 11:38 Ace wrote:


He pushed his case vs rayne stronger than anyone else did and didn't have any reservations.

On June 07 2013 20:42 prplhz wrote:
Right.

I don't see why a scum Ace would want to trade 1-for-1 with some townie that people were already throwing suspicion on. The most logical conclusion then is that he is town who got a red check. I'm not willing to dismiss a red check because of the 1/9 offchance that you're the miller. There are also some other things pointing at you being scum such as your weird Ace push yesterday and how you wanted us to lynch outside of you and Ace. Scum would obviously want that because if Ace flips town then you're dead the next day, delaying this little duel you have going will net you extra KP for another cycle which is bad.

On June 07 2013 21:53 prplhz wrote:
I don't really think of Ace as someone who crumbles under what little pressure he was under.

You know that he can't just say "OH MILLER MY BAD" and expect to not get lynched. There's like a 6% chance that you rolled miller. We just can't take miniscule possiblities into account like that.

No it's usefull speculation. The reason you don't want people to look @ that piece of evidence is because of how bad it makes you look.

Why would we ignore that? The fact that this action makes absolute zero sense for a scum Ace to do is a HUGE part of the case against you. Scum is not gonna make a one for one trade. Town on the other hand will make that trade every time.

OK, I think you're scum.

OK PRP time.

Reading through his filter, I find that I read that its townie. Ok.
Prp is town.
Why?
Generally because he brought up Rayn as a lynch target earlier, and although he switched off of rayn, he explained it in a townlike way that was similar to what I thought.
Whoop.

On June 05 2013 11:03 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
I had problems with his lurker policy lynching (goes against my best interests, I lurk with pride) as well as asking people whether his play was scummy or not.

His reply was this:



Basically he's saying that by accusing him it stirs up discussion. But why? If attention is on him, as town it's crappy play because it distracts others from finding scum, and as scum he can WIFOM his way to finding a different lynch target.

I don't think perfectly good townplay involves painting yourself red to see who comes out of the woodwork.

I don't see anybody that looks worse.

On June 05 2013 21:04 layabout wrote:
Currently the most active player in this dead game is set to be lynched. This is not good. Not good at all.

On June 05 2013 21:51 layabout wrote:

jay has gone from empty posts to omgus. That isn't how i would expect a town play to play, especially when the pressure jay was under was so low. He should not be so worried about 2 votes and the everyone that votes for me is scum argument is crappy.

WaveOfShadow
In every game i can recall the hypersupermegaactive players are always town, even in games where somebody like bh is scum and posts a ton the most active players are still town. If scum is the most active player in the thread and they aren't just spamming then then don't deserve to get lynched. Our problem right now is that the activity levels are too low, killing active players only makes this worse.

And since the activity has been low since the start WoS is correct to be concerned about it so i see no harm in him say he might want to lynch a lurker. If there is anything scummy about it it's that he tentatively puts the idea forward possibly because he is worried about people jumping on him for LaL.

Lynching Ace is okay since he hasn't done anything, but his posts have reflected my own feeling about the game and there are other who have also done nothing. He hasn't done anything to make me want to keep him alive but at the same time i see no reason to choose ace specifically.

I think zephird's push is bad but it is not inherently scummy, his response to pressure was townlike and towards the beginning he was trying to get the thread moving in the right direction which was quite needed.

On June 07 2013 23:47 kitaman27 wrote:


Mostly because said that you hated me. That really, really hurt

On June 08 2013 00:30 prplhz wrote:
oats i want to believe but your push on ace was horrible and i have no idea why you'd go "lets not lynch scum ace. oh they lose kp? well then lets lynch scum ace."

On June 08 2013 00:33 prplhz wrote:
you played in ego when ace was lynched d2 for being completely useless, now you decide out of the blue to mindlessly tunnel him on d1 when there were other people around who weren't doing much either? why not rain/lay/sloosh?

On June 08 2013 00:43 layabout wrote:

I did until i got into my promotion series.

Vivax said he wouldn't post a lot but on day1 his posting was focused on the right things, not all that suspicious.

At the moment i am trying to work out what to do about the red check since even though the odd's are in our favour we could have ace and oats both town which would screw us particularly since role-based lynching kills activity. If oats dies and flips town we will lynch Ace tomorrow but it's not a sure lynch.

On June 08 2013 01:03 Stutters695 wrote:
Also oats you kept throwing my name around as part of a scum team with Ace, Rayne and then a random fourth. While I wasn't here you seemed to have stopped, why is that?

As for who to choose today, Ace was in no danger of getting lynched any time soon, and Oats seems like a likely target for a check for his strange D1 tunnel on Ace. I've never played against scum-Ace, but I doubt he would be so stupid to throw away his life with a fake check, hoping that town believes Oats was miller last night.

Oats is now clearly putting up a fight and also delivering reads on other people now that he's at danger of getting lynched, that's only logic cause scum has to defend themselves since they lost Rayn or they will lose valuable KP after that awful start.

On June 08 2013 01:32 WaveofShadow wrote:

For the record, it's this kind of shit that makes me have such a hard time analyzng Oats.
He played this trolly, useless, at times tunnely style in Carnival Cruise and was town.
Oats is definitely going to take me the longest.

On June 07 2013 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:
I didn't have as much time as I had hoped to finish this post since I thought the deadline was an hour later, but I want to post it in case I get shot. My top two scum suspects are Ace and Sent currently. Everyone should role claim (I'm vanilla) Punish players if they offer bad alignment cop/medic/roleblocker selections.

Ace had a poor showing day one, not bringing anything of value to the table. He was late to the rayn lynch and even tried to spook people away from the lynch in the final hours. What concerns me the most is that Ace wasn't applying his own views of rayn, he is characterizing whether or not the lynch is legitimate based on the collective reasoning.



With this post, Ace establishes that there is a legitimate reason to vote rayn. Later on, he establishes the case from fuba as the argument that convinced him that rayn is scum.







After an analysis of the votes, however Ace decides that rayn is a poor lynch. Why do the statements that Ace described as a solid line of reasoning no longer apply? If people are voting rayn for the wrong reasons, shouldn't he be convincing people to vote rayn for the right reasons, instead of trying to redirect the lynch? Even if Ace concluded that rayn was an inactivity lynch, concluding that it was a mislynch is a jump that is never adequately explained. An inactivity lynch can be valid if there is supporting evidence that the player is scum in the limited amount of posts they have. Ace never discusses rayn's posts, which should be the deciding factor when determining if the inactivity lynch is a mafia lynch or mislynch.

From the previous game, where I was a scum buddy with rayn, I noticed that on day one, he put effort into scum to scum interaction, sending me a couple of softballs, that weren't really prompted. I wouldn't put much value into this observation, but I think his interaction with Ace and layabout most closely reflect this type of interaction.

On June 08 2013 01:49 WaveofShadow wrote:

I do remember other people warming up to the idea a little, me being one of them, that being said, Ace isn't the kind of person to freak out and fakeclaim because he's worried about being lynched that early.
(That's something I'd do lolololol)

On June 08 2013 01:57 Stutters695 wrote:
I'm aware it's not a 1 for 1. If you end up being town it costs us 2 deaths. I think you're more likely to flip scum than Ace though currently.

On June 08 2013 02:13 VayneAuthority wrote:
Uh I went through and read oats other scum games and he does pretty much the same thing as this game, in ego he even tries to get Ace lynched there too

he asks people for their thoughts on a lot on his posts and spams questions. I hate using meta but I didn't really know what else to go off of.

##vote:oatsmaster

On June 08 2013 02:21 kitaman27 wrote:


You deserve a sticker.

On June 08 2013 02:28 Stutters695 wrote:
You can't seriously expect a bastard game to be used to justify your play.

On June 08 2013 02:34 kitaman27 wrote:
By the way Oats, have you drawn any conclusions based on how anyone has reacted to the claim? Do you find it more scummy for a player to side with Ace in the majority or you in the minority?

On June 08 2013 02:42 Stutters695 wrote:
Also instead of for funzies answer this:
Did you think I was scum d1? If so do you still think so? If not what changed?

On June 08 2013 04:01 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:


What? You were one of the few defending rayn. You were desperately trying to get fuba lynched until the very end. If you're confirmed anything it's scum.

Eduardo Nbobo would be a powerful role if he lived. It would make sense to defend rayn.

On June 08 2013 04:07 WaveofShadow wrote:

I don't honestly see the value of that.
It's WIFOM.

'Iffy reasons' could also be scum doing his best to protect a buddy.

Do you know for sure which it is?

On June 08 2013 04:12 VayneAuthority wrote:


I already voted for who I want to lynch, there's no way around it. Percentages and the KP reduction is too good to pass up. Also ATE is going to get you nowhere with me so you can drop it.

On June 08 2013 11:10 layabout wrote:

Oats your going to flip today. We already know that you think Ace is scum. Do other stuff. Useful stuff.

On June 08 2013 11:23 layabout wrote:

your reads.

Everyone else wants to kill one of you. You have a red check, it makes more sense to lynch you than Ace. Bite me.

Oats was one of the worst players in the game in CC. Knowing this, if he is Town again then why make some of the same blatant mistakes that led to Scum winning? Oats is rational so he would know that is bad. He's still tunneling to an extreme amount and exaggerating situations trying to paint me in a worse predicament than reality shows. Even if I were to believe Oats is just that bad to not change his play, his Day 1 play still reeks.

On June 08 2013 16:40 Ace wrote:


No. The risk is too great as a simple Cop check would get me lynched.

Also stop putting words in my mouth. I've never said anything about a 1 for 1 trade. That was someone else.

By lynching me, you definitelyget an extra KP.

I'm not going to go back and read the entire game but I know in my write up I mentioned how you were not reading people's posts.

Oats was one of the worst players in the game in CC. Knowing this, if he is Town again then why make some of the same blatant mistakes that led to Scum winning? Oats is rational so he would know that is bad. He's still tunneling to an extreme amount and exaggerating situations trying to paint me in a worse predicament than reality shows. Even if I were to believe Oats is just that bad to not change his play, his Day 1 play still reeks.

Because.
By lynching me, you definitely get an extra KP.

Cop wastes a check.
Scum could get cop.
You could get GF.

I don't have any KP. Think about what you're saying here. Assume I'm Scum. I was in no danger of getting lynched today. I could let any random Townie die and get my "extra" KP. Instead I cause a ruckus with a check on you knowing it could lead to my death and drop the Scum team's KP to 1.

On June 08 2013 22:39 Ace wrote:


???

Are you guys forgetting if I'm scum and get autolynched scum Kp drops to 1. How is that not much risk?

exaggerating situations and failing to read posts.

On June 08 2013 23:59 Ace wrote:
Oats, you seriously have comprehension problems. That does not "sum it up as 1 for 1".

On June 06 2013 01:39 mkfuba07 wrote:

I basically see a lot of thing that *could* be scummy, but have an equal chance of being town. It's the quantity of them that keeps me suspicious, as well as the fact that he hasn't really done anything to convince me he's town.