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Roulette Mini Mafia - Page 6
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Vivax
21959 Posts
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Vivax
21959 Posts
On June 16 2013 08:14 prplhz wrote: i'll take bet that vivax Mean that does what? | ||
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Vivax
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Vivax
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On June 17 2013 08:22 VayneAuthority wrote: Vivax's flip gives info on sent because he can confirm if town vivax gave a town cop on sent which makes him look a lot better. Nothing changes with sent flipping town because scum vivax could do either alignment on him and it wouldn't matter one bit. That is why I am frankly upset that the sentinel lynch went through given how things went down but no need to harp on it, time to move on. 1 ) Vayne's reason to lynch me is a policy to gain info on a player that is now dead. On June 17 2013 08:31 VayneAuthority wrote: stutters hopefully? no one really strikes out at me on that list as the last scum. Vivax even isn't that scummy it's more of a policy lynch then anything based on the I receive when he flips. I am assuming a lot of people are town right now that I maybe should or should not based on what he flips so I REALLY hope we get this lynch out of the way today. 2) And this applies also to kita. Why do they both think that I'd be "bussing" my scumbuddy stutters? I'm not even sure if Vayne read my filter or stutters' here or he would at least try to get that out of the way if he thinks we're both scum. What are his points against stutters? On June 17 2013 10:25 VayneAuthority wrote: I don't have a case. if it makes you feel better I will just consolidate onto prphlz if you really think my policy lynch is suspect when I have went over what it would solve FMPOV. ##unvote ##vote:prphlz Why give in so quickly to a few questions and feel that he's looking scummy? I would like to hear an opinion on this prplhz bandwagon from him. And how the policy lynch rule is still a relevant reason for him to lynch me when it should not be relevant any more. Regarding stutters' medic claim: I want to know the reasons for why you protected fuba. Claiming to have protted the vet could be an attempt to make yourself look townie. | ||
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Vivax
21959 Posts
On June 17 2013 22:53 Stutters695 wrote: I'm awake. Sorry I wasn't here yesterday, spent the day with my girlfriend's father. Does she know? | ||
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Vivax
21959 Posts
Prplhz seems like a solid lynch judging by the cases and his sinchrony with ace's arguments to def Rayn during D1. He has to be lynched today, at the very least to see what scum's strat was during Rayn's lynch. Otherwise I don't need to add anything. Stutters would have to be playing a pretty good scum game to be scum. I reviewed his filter especially paying attention to his explanations, and they give me quite the townie feeling lately. The latest medic save explanation looks pretty legit. He keeps his activity up quite steadily, he doesn't fear confrontation with me. There's a chance that he could be scum but we will have to find out later. Vayne probably saved WoS, but just from reading his posts I'd want to lynch him today. I don't see his reasoning for wanting to lynch me any more. From policy for a day it became the policy of the previous day for the next day and he wants to lynch me for unknown reasons. Not necessarily scum play but for sure bad play and I want him to fix it. Layabout lays about unpressured. The fact he keeps posting after the greencheck and unpressured though is a town tell or good scum play. WoS most likely medic saved. Kita -"- Fuba vet hit when scum only had 1 KP. But he must have saved kita. (Scum withholding KP to gain cred atfer claming a save is tinfoil-mode, but if two scum get medic they can do that with each other) By exclusion, prplhz and jay are my last scumreads. If prplhz is not, we got tricked by some night actions. Could be Jay + layabout in that case. I'm off, won't be around @ deadline. You have my sword. ##Vote prplhz | ||
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Vivax
21959 Posts
On June 19 2013 03:36 VayneAuthority wrote: you seem to be the only other person on the same wavelength as me but rayn flipped scum so i guess that doesn't matter much! the fact that fuba thinks getting a greencheck of sentinel is not scummy when it is pretty much the only option he had besides green check on prp, is pretty puzzling. Check anyone else and people will wonder why, put a red check on either of them and you are dead the next day. A green check on them is actually perfectly normal for either alignment. Sup bro. Tell me why I would not simply stay silent when people scream for a Sentinel lynch. It's simply not true when you say I had no other choice. Sit back, watch Sentinel getting lynched. Instead, I'd try to stop his lynch when the other option at the start of the day was lynching me? Vein pls | ||
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Vivax
21959 Posts
On June 19 2013 03:48 VayneAuthority wrote: It gives you towncred. You were confident in your abilities to out play sentinel easily and get him lynched over you once you started posting. If you put a red on him, you're lynched the next day, if you green a random it really gives you nothing. By doing so you even have fuba relying on this sole motive for not wanting to lynch you so it obviously worked. Let's assume that you are town though, who do we lynch at this point? Welcome | ||
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Vivax
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On June 19 2013 04:01 VayneAuthority wrote: so you're just gonna dodge the question? figures ![[image loading]](http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mf2yjaCCff1raj8mk.gif) | ||
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Vivax
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Jay is town, and I'm out of clues. | ||
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Vivax
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Vayne claimed protection on N2 when hit went missing. Fuba claimed protection on kita when a hit went missing. WoS roleblocked Sentinel that night. Stutters claiming medic had been roleblocked when scum hit Fuba and veteran got lost... If scum withheld hits to gain town status and that is left unquestioned then we will lose the game. Question is: Which one of these events looks like it could have been set up? Currently the only guy who could be scum considering night actions and excluding powerplays is stutters. | ||
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Vivax
21959 Posts
Vayne didn't mention any reasons for me being scum. He didn't read my filter when he asked me for my scumreads. He left questions unanswered during the day of the prplhz lynch. That day, he joined the lynch with his tail between the legs after some more half-assed attempts to push my lynch, after a few counter-arguments he immediately gave in. Now, excuse me if I don't link you to the events, but I think I pointed out well enough where to find what I'm talking about. | ||
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Vivax
21959 Posts
on one hand we have a player that usually puts in a lot of work that has been sort of middle of the line this entire game. A lot of suspicious night action correlations and the fact that he's still alive at this point in the game all ring alarm bells. He would also confirm me as town if he by some chance showed up town so that's an added bonus. I have no real case on him besides that but feel he is a good lynch overall. A lot of suspicious night actions? Tell me about all of them. I'm still alive? Sorry bro, but so is every other townie in the game. I don't recall being high priority target for scum in most of my games, and given how few time I have to put into this one, I'm even lesser. The hard-on for confirmation is also inconsistent, as pointed out by fuba. Speaking of hard-ons, I'd like to know from fuba why he seems so sure about me being town. That doesn't seem to be something that obvious to most of the others. Is it just for my cop check on Sent? | ||
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Vivax
21959 Posts
On June 20 2013 09:13 layabout wrote: Who actually believes that mafia doublestacking JJD is the most likely scenario for night 2? Vivax needs to be posting today since he has a greencheck on his only scumread alive. On June 20 2013 09:13 layabout wrote: Who actually believes that mafia doublestacking JJD is the most likely scenario for night 2? Vivax needs to be posting today since he has a greencheck on his only scumread alive. I am thinking a lot about that point. It seems like a huge sacrifice, but it's actually really effective if the idea works. You pick some guy who doesn't seem worth of double stacking, you claim to have protted someone who is town, the roleblocked guy gets in trouble. No one thinks you would double stack someone like JJD so you have an argument. You are free to keep derping around like Vayne does for several days cause people think you saved a townie, the roleblocked dude is under pressure, and just in case you flip scum, the guy you protted might get into trouble too. I am currently put in front of these scenarios: - stutters is scum if I take all actions at face value. - Jay is in truth scum and rolled GF - Scum tried to get to do some confirmed town shenannies. vayne claiming doctor. Fuba claiming save on kita and hit on himself. The idea that scum gives up on KP seems so far fetched, but just by looking at the consequences for these players that I argued myself into, I became mostly driven by night actions and only looked at the play of a few people. If scum is good, they will do things no one believes they would do as scum. One consequence is only logical though (from the actions) , I think fuba is town for his timing on the Rayn wagon (third to vote) and the post he joined it with here, I refuse to believe that this was a bus. That leads to his kita protection being genuine, that leads to kita having been protected for real in the questionable night. And with that, if I go strictly by play and my own check and the remaining guy I can't trust into for his night action, I end up at: - Vayne - jay - layabout Considering that jay gave layabout a green check, and both are now voting Vayne, we gain information. It means that Vayne is either being bussed by one of them, or jay and layabout are scum. Unlikely he's being bussed by layabout cause he's defending me. Doesn't really make sense for layabout to defend me like that if he's scum anyway, it looks like honest doubt. That leaves me with a Jay + Vayne scumteam. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________ This answer makes me confident: On June 20 2013 03:16 VayneAuthority wrote: stutters for absolutely certain, dont know on the other. maybe you or jay Jay's posts actually do the opposite, but hey, do things people don't expect you to do I guess: On June 20 2013 03:57 jaybrundage wrote: Looking over him the big points i dont like. Is his self proclaimed confirmed town just from rayn calling him a town read. Here he defends it saying that Rayn calling him town when Vayne doesnt have any influence on the thread day 1 that it doesnt make sense for scum to buddy with town like that. And he some how takes this instance to call him self confirmed town. Again talking about Rayn calling him town. Its all WIFOM and he keeps coming back to it cause its his only argument that he has for him being town. His not caring who died voting prplhz even tho he doesnt have a scum read on him. Says he doesnt have a case on Vivax just wants him to die. He just wants someone to die besides him and his scum buddie. He makes it obvious he doesn't care who he lynches. I made one comment to him about why he doesnt have a case. And he just changed his vote. No conviction about his read. ##Vote Vayne Plz vayne convince me other wise. On June 20 2013 05:24 jaybrundage wrote: I have a null read on Vivax. I don't find the KP argument compelling enough to lynch him over people that have been acting like scum in there filter. If vayne flips green (unlikely i know) then I think Vivax is much more likely to be scum. Or scum would have just decided to hold KP for no reason Possible but very unlikley He's pretty obviously trying to favour Vayne over me by calling me a "null read". Only possible explanation I see given my conclusion by exclusion is that scumjay knows that any hesitating during a bus will make it too ineffective for him to stay alive at lylo. He'll rather relax on his scumbuddy after writing his case while taking null stances on other lynch options, so he can switch but doesn't have to defend me. Hence, we lynch Vayne or jay today, I'd actually start with the latter cause it's more fun to see vayne squealing: ##Vote jay pre-edit: The problem is that vayne was one of his strongest town reads the past three cycles and he never explains what he think happened with the N2 actions. I'd hardly say he is pushing vayne considering he never calls him scum, nor votes for him. It was more of a defense post. Kita, read his reasons for lynching me and comment on them, then you can come back and decide if to spam your confirmation biased arguments. Every townread I gave you see as scum motivated, my check on Sentinel was supposed to give me town cred when the other lynch option at the time was me. You clearly need to think critically about your own thoughts, take some fresh air, eat a sandwich. | ||
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Vivax
21959 Posts
I went to thinking he's town, and I decided to not take all actions at face value. Didn't eat that sandwich didn't you. | ||
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Vivax
21959 Posts
On June 21 2013 02:56 kitaman27 wrote: (Sorry for the quadruple post) Can you explain to me why you eliminated Vayne/Stutters as an option? I can't really eliminate stutters, that's correct, I decided I'd roll with town since his explanation for the Fuba save, mainly. I found it too detailed to look like bullshit, but maybe I'm using the wrong heuristic. To review your suggestion, the evidence I found against that option is this: On June 20 2013 05:08 Stutters695 wrote: Well I was typing up a long ass post on why Vayne was scum but by the time I finish it you guys will have lynched him. Here's what I was thinking of his D1 play. Ok so big post on Vayne: There will be Day 1: He really isn't saying dick, but no surprise there. He's done it both of the other games I've played with him (1 town, 1 scum). Here is where it starts to bug me That's twice in early d1 he says he doesn't care for meta, yet his first real stance is a townread on Rayne for meta where he votes WoS for no reason except that at least it isn't his town read. + Show Spoiler + On June 05 2013 15:10 VayneAuthority wrote: I dont see anything on rayn, he doesn't really have a meta from what I have seen. He plays differently from game to game and his activity is based off the time he actually has not his alignment. Neither of us are good lynches. I am leaning towards mkfuba or WoS not sure yet On June 06 2013 02:40 VayneAuthority wrote: I don't necessarily think WoS is scum as its too early to tell but if that's my only other option besides rayn, so be it. He is one of my only townreads He also defends Ace by saying that if he's town scum will shoot him, so there is no point in lynching him/getting him to contribute. Then he switches to Fuba because he's his "real read." Now that the summary is done, onto why this is scummy: First, I consider Vayne a very cognizant player. It isn't that his reads are amazing or anything as town but he's always thinking ahead. That is part of my concern with him. For the obvious scum motivations he got by d1 with not being a serious suspect at all and avoiding contributing literally anything. Although defending two scum could just be terrible luck, I would not rule out the possibility of scumteam consisting of Ace and Vayne to orchestrate that. He defends both confirmed scum on no reasoning at all. That isn't something that just happens. I'd also like to call attention to + Show Spoiler [this post] + On June 06 2013 11:14 VayneAuthority wrote: I welcome anyone that questions my alignment to cop me then if you can't vig me, so we don't waste a lynch. Vayne is too focused on how night actions affect gameplay to not realize that with the godfather possibility, you can't rely on someone calling themselves for a cop check to be reliable. Overall a pretty scummy d1 but nothing really concrete in it, Gonna abridge the rest to get it out quick. If a scum recieves the miller/GF role, are they informed that they are the GF for that night? On June 20 2013 05:37 Stutters695 wrote: Vayne, the Abridged Series Episode 2 d2/n2 He calls himself confirmed town via Rayns WIFOM, then says if Ace flips scum we need to reexamine confirmed town because clearly Ace set something up. Purely speculation, but notice that he really doesn't do anything yet again. When he does decide to post reads look at them + Show Spoiler [reads] + On June 09 2013 12:13 VayneAuthority wrote: Also I would check out stutters, something is up there. Something doesn't feel right about him looking through his filter. Look at the progression that brought him to Rayn and how he's been pretty much afk for this 2nd day. On June 09 2013 12:23 VayneAuthority wrote: They didn't necessarily have to bus him hard but they definitely voted somewhere in the middle of the pack im guessing or maybe even early (this is all assuming ace is scum) I would say the ones to me that look the most suspicious are stutters, Vivax, JJD. Leaning towards sentinel being town but really can't tell what he's doing tbh. stutters- Tosses around his vote a bit and is quite active, more than I would like from stutters but maybe he just had time on his hands. The damning part is that he kind of ends up on rayn with no real reason, just pops in the thread late and votes him. Vivax was trying to push a lynch on a weak player(me) which is something we both know scum love to do, and kind of just voted for rayn for no reason at all either. JJD is doing the same thing as last game where he kind of pre-conceives before the flip but I cant get a good read here, null leaning scum I've dropped the mkfuba thing but you thing I should re-examine it? First notice that all four of his reads show little to no scum motivation. There's an irony here that he accuses Vivax of trying to push a lynch on a weak player when that is what he was doing to me (over a weekend I may add when I have made it abundantly clear I'm not as active). His JJD read is easily the worst reason of the 3 (at least voting Rayn without justification can be scummy, but he never explains why it is something that wouldn't happen as a townie). Rinse and repeat that on me throughout the entire game. Also this post is scummy as shit. afk a while, driving home. On June 20 2013 08:21 Stutters695 wrote: I don't understand why scum would double stack JJD. I could see Vayne protecting the hit to try and boost his town cred and there is still the possibility of vivax getting role blocked. Looking at the NKs it's pretty obvious Fuba and I can't be scum together since if we were there would have been no reason to sacrifice two NKs to give Fuba minor town cred with his vet absorption when as an alternative we could have easily shot knowing that Fuba was a very unlikely RB compared to me. That doesn't clear me for that night but i know I'm telling the truth about it makes Fuba confirmed town to me because he's responsible for two saves when otherwise this is a potential lylo. Thus the question for me is are vivax/Vayne/both up to something? I think yes and Vayne is the more likely to flip scum. Point being, he writes two huge cases and proceed to give up on the push after a back and forth of questioning with Vayne where he finds his answer genuine. If it's distancing it'd be pretty well done, I'd rather go with not. What suggests to you that they could be a possible scum team? | ||
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Vivax
21959 Posts
On June 21 2013 03:24 mkfuba07 wrote: @Vivax: Why not vote for the scumread that is actually in consideration at the moment instead of adding in jay? I don't care who gets lynched first, my reasoning must be correct if my townreads on stutters and layabout are. So I dropped that vote casually on jay (hence the squeal comment). I'll vote whoever gets the majority, right now we're still open for discussion on who to pick. Playing straight logically, it would be wiser to lynch Vayne first cause of my check having a 4/5 chance of being correct. But if jay isn't scum then one of layabout or stutters has to be. Since layabout would have been greenchecked by a town jay, I'd dismiss that, and that would leave stutters. I'll reread the guy just to make sure. Anyway, I just reread jay , and I found that he wrote cases on every guy who got mislynched so far, but didn't write a case on ace for example. It struck me as a pattern. His cases look kinda fabricated too, actually. Vayne doesn't read my filter and tunnels me since D3, he also has some really suspicious switches of opinions, see the one where he gets "swayed" to vote for prplhz. Take your pick, it really doesn't matter imo. ##Unvote | ||
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Vivax
21959 Posts
On June 21 2013 04:22 kitaman27 wrote: Vivax is so confident on his town stutters read that he is willing to lynch a player that is town 80% of the time based on his check. The main backbone of his town read on stutters is medic save on fuba, however there is absolutely no evidence that stutters protected fuba. A town medic could have protected him or a mafia medic could have protected random player X, saw that their hit on fuba didn't go through, and claim to have targeted him for a save. Therefore, the evidence really shouldn't be taken in consideration to determine stutter's alignment. However, he uses this reasoning, which provides no information, to decide that Jay must be the godfather. Where did you read that. | ||
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Vivax
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That's usually the point where someone should start ignoring you. ##Vote Vayne | ||
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