EPT##unvote
##vote JP
NOT THAT IT MATTERS
Smurf Mini Mafia - Page 24
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Hurndall3
237 Posts
##unvote ##vote JP NOT THAT IT MATTERS | ||
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A McGann
81 Posts
Unfortunate but not unforeseeable. | ||
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A McGann
81 Posts
Tell me again why we let this shit go on. | ||
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A McGann
81 Posts
On June 04 2013 11:08 SMcCoy wrote: What do you guys think of Davison's vote switch? Would he believe that we could manage to switch in this short time as town, or did he gamble on the lynch going through anyway and looking good post-flip? I don't see anything malicious in that. We had one excess vote and he wanted to leave. He jumped back on anyway when it was irrelevant. | ||
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SMcCoy
228 Posts
I wrote some stuff about Tom in the hope that JP will flip scum, but given his flip I've grown some doubts about him. It's time to take a closer look at Trout, HW, Hurndall now. If I had to pick one now I'd get rid of HW. Too bad we seem to have no vigi. I'm feeling kinda malleable after this lynch, if you guys got any clues, I'm listening. | ||
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TheDavison
157 Posts
On June 04 2013 11:08 SMcCoy wrote: What do you guys think of Davison's vote switch? Would he believe that we could manage to switch in this short time as town, or did he gamble on the lynch going through anyway and looking good post-flip? Excuse me. U r the one who issued the rallying call. I respond, and u try to hold me accountable. I think baker is getting to your head. U have showed great insight multiple times in this game. However the mere notion of what you suggested is completely outlandish. I'm disappointed we lynched a medic as well. Personally I'm going to review how the JP lynch built up steam, and look for specifically over compensated +1s. In my experience, that presents scums easiest way to join a town bandwagon. | ||
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TheDavison
157 Posts
I agree Get rid of h3 | ||
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SMcCoy
228 Posts
His scumreads before voting JP were first Smith, until I correct something wrong in his case, he concluded with On June 02 2013 05:32 TomB4 wrote: you're right, I must have misremembered. It's still rather odd, but not quite as odd as I remembered. I do think HW is scummy. I just haven't read into him all that much. It's still rather odd but not quite as odd, he says, Smith is present in the thread multiple times and Tom doesn't treat him as if he's doubting him. No questions, no pressure, no lynch swaying, nothing. In his next post: On June 02 2013 16:10 TomB4 wrote: I need to read in on Davison, but I avoided doing so on the idea that I'd be quite biased given he was attacking me. I should probably take time to remove that autotown read on him and look into it more. + Show Spoiler [*snip*] + Anyway I wanted to post my reads before deadline but was unfortunately away (playing paintball). No one died? First thing I wanted to get out of the way: do we think none of the scum bussed on day 1? This is a 12 player game, there are almost certainly 3 scum. What's the most likely split for votes by scum? I don't think it's likely that both scum bussed unless they are more active than I think they are. It certainly doesn't seem like the most active players are scum, and the only person who is suspicious at all that has posted a fair amount is JP. His vote was on PT. On DrT the two most suspicious players are HW and Eccleston. Everyone else looks fine. + Show Spoiler [snip] + So, unless one of the scum has tricked us, there are five players (six if you count me) that we should look into. JP HW Eccleston TheDavison Ptroughton Someone is probably getting replaced/modkilled-for now let's assume it's PT and ignore him. If he gets replaced we will probably know his alignment (hopefully) decently well within 24 hours of his replacement coming in, assuming the replacement is reasonably active. If PT is not the one being replaced we should strongly consider killing him, since it means he is somehow active enough to stay in the game, yet has contributed nothing to town and is not active by town standards, i.e. probably scum. Thus the replacement issue should probably resolve itself. So, going with the assumption that PT is being replaced, we look at 4: JP HW Eccleston TheDavison I found myself agreeing with some of Davison's logic, particularly that contested lynches on day 1 are useful. However, I'm not sure why, if he was truly interested in starting a wagon, he didn't push me harder. In addition, he never swapped his vote back to DrT at the end of the day, even stranger for a townie. Even if he didn't have the motivation to push me after his initial votepost I would at the very least expect some sort of vote back to the main candidate to prevent a no-lynch. This is extended majority, not plurality. His vote was wasted, and removing two votes from the main wagon would result in no-lynch. As town he should know that. More interesting, is the effort that Davison put into reading and posting about everyone, except JP. I don't like forming connections before flips but this one is extraordinarily out of place. Note that this never happened, despite Davison staying around and posting on PT, and HW, two of the easiest people to comment on. Both of their filters are almost completely void. (there was also a post on MSmith IIRC) In light of all of this I think it's quite likely Davison is scum. + Show Spoiler [Eccleston defense] + Eccleston Based on what I've read of Eccleston's posts I think he's probably the most likely to be town out of the entire lot. In fact, I think he's quite likely to be town. He's made very specific observations that are quite hard for scum to make. I do not, for example, think that the average TL scum player would say anything like these: On May 31 2013 19:25 Eccleston wrote: Can you explain to me why you think that these points are exclusive to a scum mindset? For example, point three could be explained from a town perspective too; if DrT is a townie being tunneled, trying to shift the attention toward the lurkers is a perfectly valid thing to do if he thinks that the mafia are lurking. Before, you dismissed his "overdefense", as brought up by MSmith1 here (it's point two in his post), saying that "2 people are searching for something to talk about early game. This is true of both town and scum." What made you change your mind? How often do scum reference posts and actually question the logic of someone else on such a specific level? Generally scum find it hard to fake the "figuring out" process because they've already been given the alignments of everyone in the game. It's almost impossible to fake this kind of specific questioning process-if questioning is faked by scum, it's usually more general or nebulous. On May 31 2013 03:05 Eccleston wrote: I think lynching PT2 at this time would be unwise. He's made one post and thrown a vote on Hurndall3 for being "brief and blunt", and suddenly, ten hours later, he's a prime suspect? I think you're stretching it when you say that At the time of his post the thread was about three and a half pages long. It doesn't really take much effort to read that and then write a five paragraph RP post and throw a vote on someone. He could just as well be disinterested townie. I could understand it if you were pushing him as a policy lynch because you're not certain about DrT, but how he is "far from null" is beyond me. He has made one (half serious) post in the entire game. Has he been useless? Yes. Does that make him scum? No. This post reflects Eccleston's initial thought process regarding my opinion of PT yesterday. What's interesting is not necessarily this post itself, because I think the average scum could probably reasonably fake something like this. What's most interesting are his followup posts that demonstrate that he was thinking about this. IMO most scum would not put in the effort to think about what another player has written and said about someone else because they don't have to-they don't know how to fake the process, and so they only show the results of that process. This is partly also, IMO, why scum are so reluctant to swap votes. It's hard for scum to realistically be able to fake a decision-making process when their ulterior goal is to blend in. Eccleston doesn't display any of those tendencies. He's almost certainly town IMO. If anyone can find instances where I am wrong about what I've said above, I'd love to hear it. The only thing that could possibly be held against Eccleston, IMO, is his relatively low recent activity, but given the context of the game I do not think it is a point worthy of consideration unless his inactivity persists. So, this leaves JP and HW. HartnellWill has nothing. Nothing really to say on this-he could also potentially be the person for whom GM was looking for a replacement. His vote timing is not early enough to be conclusive evidence of him being town and not late enough to be conclusive evidence of him bussing either. JP is consistent throughout his attacks on PT. The worst things against JP are: his lack of presence at crucial times for town during the day. He wasn't around for the lynch, his vote never moved from a doomed wagon, and he acted relatively strange with respect to the flipped scum. However, there are a couple things in his favor, particularly this little bit, which is what I was referencing when I said I found his tone to be townish. Bolded emphasis mine-this is not much but I don't think this anger is faked. Certainly he could be frustrated scum (with the lynch of his buddy perhaps) but I'm wary of that. Generally displays of frustration and use of tone like this is indicative of a townie. The only other thing worthy of any mention is Davison's failure to provide a read on JP, but that is more reflective of Davison's alignment than JP's. Based on what we have in the thread right now, I would say that Davison and JP are our best bets for lynches today, but I would strongly favor Davison precisely because he made a promise on reads that he didn't follow up on despite being present and following up on other reads. HW and PT have no posts and there is probably some mod intervention that is going to happen with at least one of them, and Eccleston to me looks like he is town. + Show Spoiler + On June 02 2013 07:50 Baker1986 wrote: If I was scum I probably couldn't care less if Town-Tom thought I was scum. wat ##vote TheDavison Check the bolded. His arguments against Davis are that he didn't swap his vote back to DrT, just like JP didn't, and connection with JP cause Davis didn't post about him. Not the best of arguments, ar On June 03 2013 04:13 TomB4 wrote: IF there is some scum on the DrT votelist it's probably HW. He's pretty much just coasting along. On June 03 2013 12:45 TomB4 wrote: Let's let the new Davison post a bit. I really don't like JP's last post. I'm running short on time and will be back tomorrow. For now: ##unvote ##vote JPertwee When Davison gets replaced and JP is being gunned heavily, Tom drops both his earlier case and his suspicion of HW. This guy has absolutely no pushes of his own, you would expect that he wants to lynch scumreads he talks most about, since he already put so much work into writing about them, but no. He adapts to thread sentiment and switches to JP. I wrote this case assuming JP would flip red, but nah. Now there are posts like this that might speak another language: On June 02 2013 02:30 TomB4 wrote: I'll let JP speak for himself, but I find it more likely that MSmith and HW or PT are scum than him. In particular, look at MSmith's posts and try to find where he expressed suspicion of DrT before he voted him. If JP doesn't do anything of his own volition in the next cycle he should definitely be killed-in hindsight, his only posts piggybacked off mine. If he is scum it would certainly suggest that PT is not, but I'm wary about that-seems almost too easy, | ||
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HartnellWill
40 Posts
Anyways: On June 04 2013 09:11 PTroughton2 wrote: Possibly. I haven't got notes on the full game but I swung into his filter to see what he has produced lately and I was semi-shocked it was this: I'm not sure what attitude to attribute to this, but it reads like "meh better stop lurking for a minute" and then return to the status quo. Despite the fact that he is not really concerned about his thread appearance, as far as I can tell he was never truly a discussion topic D1. The bolded is concerning. Smurf game = play town as hell or die, right? So he's aware that he can't bank on his name to save him from his activity level. His main contribution is a case on Eccleston which may or not be correct but he's acting like he's allowed to drop cases and disappear from the resulting discussion which is highly suspect. Before that, a weird push on Davison who I haven't pegged yet due to how Davison sticks to his guns on his own cases which essentially sheeped thread sentiment again, much like his first vote on DrT. Huh. Counter-point? -Doesn't care about his thread image whatsoever, perhaps to his own detriment. There's not caring if you look scummy and then there's being scummy looking on top of it with your few contributions. Perhaps he doesn't truly understand the gravity of his activity level? JP claim: Can't think of a way to verify it, "trust but verify" works for me right now since we don't have a counter-claim. We'll see what happens tonight. I find that when I try my hardest to play town like you claim should be done in a smurf mafia, I pass off as a try-hard scum. Barring a modkill I want Eccleston to be lynched. It wasn't a big solid case but it's the best read I've got this game. I'll stick to that case while he's alive until either he gets lynched or I find a way to compose a really good case on someone even more suspicious looking. The gravity of my activity level doesn't seem to be very high because I'm still alive after two lynches of sparse activity. Which means obviously I'm not the scummiest looking if the fucking medic gets lynched before I do. | ||
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JPertwee
27 Posts
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MSmith1
59 Posts
On June 04 2013 11:08 SMcCoy wrote: What do you guys think of Davison's vote switch? Would he believe that we could manage to switch in this short time as town, or did he gamble on the lynch going through anyway and looking good post-flip? I don't make anything of it. I don't think that he suddenly "looks good" post-flip nor would I think he expected to. And I don't see any harm in it as we had 6 votes on JP2 anyway. I feel like Eccleston is probably scum. I need to look more into PT2000 and TD2's contributions since their entrance. Also HW could definitely be scum, especially if Trout is as well. If he's town it's pretty irritating that he's choosing to be useless when with a bit of effort he could let us get a better read on him. I'm out for a while. Hopefully Eccleston bleeds red during the night. | ||
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Hurndall3
237 Posts
YUP I knew that post looked uber townie I was right and now you want to punish me for my correctness by believing im scum... The truth is I have been busy the past few days.. overtime and such. So it's like I was pretty shit tier town before that and with 0 time on my hands I am demoted to borderline should be modkilled tier. | ||
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MSmith1
59 Posts
 Feels even worse now knowing that you actually protted me | ||
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A McGann
81 Posts
Fuck it, I'm taking a break for a couple hours. | ||
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Hurndall3
237 Posts
On June 04 2013 11:18 TheDavison wrote: McCoy. I agree Get rid of h3 bro that's not even what he said... | ||
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Hurndall3
237 Posts
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SMcCoy
228 Posts
But H3 and HW only post when it's too late. Free scum points for you. | ||
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HartnellWill
40 Posts
On June 04 2013 11:25 A McGann wrote: Now everyone comes out of the woodworks after the lynch. This is ridiculous. Fuck it, I'm taking a break for a couple hours. I got home minutes before the lynch and took me about 20 minutes to catch up on the thread. | ||
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Hurndall3
237 Posts
On June 04 2013 11:32 HartnellWill wrote: I got home minutes before the lynch and took me about 20 minutes to catch up on the thread. I was working all day for several days in a row now. But I'm not going to blame that. Truthfully I didn't think I needed to try that hard because town was just owning it up I really didn't have anything to add with my limited time. Also everyone thought I was town so yeah.. my job was done kind of. | ||
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TheDavison
157 Posts
On June 04 2013 11:34 Hurndall3 wrote: I was working all day for several days in a row now. But I'm not going to blame that. Truthfully I didn't think I needed to try that hard because town was just owning it up I really didn't have anything to add with my limited time. Also everyone thought I was town so yeah.. my job was done kind of. Mcgann. This response is precisely why I called into question baker yesterday. Unfortunately, whether town or scum. I cannot have a go at H3 for this attitude. It is indeed a completely valid point of view to hold. I.e. Follow the leader. What many forget is. Scum are as strong as their best player. Town are as strong as their worst. Ppl like McCoy and msmith1, whilst certainly capable of making validated and correct decisions. still require individuals to go back and forth with them and Challenge them. This process improves critical thinking on all levels. I hope town decides to move forward from day2 and instead of pointing accusatory fingers. Rather, work together and critically challenge each others points of view. Day1 proved this game is solvable. We just need to do it together. Personally I think the challenge in this game is separating the sycophant towns asking for McCoy guidance from the blending scum. Its the typical lurking scum vs bad town scenario with a twist. So what am I going to do? As I said prior. My plan of attack when I get home is to review the over compensated +1s to bandwagon JP. I expect to provide some decent leads. | ||
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