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Let's play a game... |
A.McGann,
Excellent observations.
I agree in full that we can move beyond NK speculation as it will all become evident in 20hrs or so, which decision(s) scum made.
I think your additions to the H3 case are excellent, and are highly indicative of a scum mindset.
I am eagerly awaiting the feedback of H3.
As an aside A.McGann, my musings on your feedback regarding NK speculation.
Spoilered as its not that relevant anymore.
+ Show Spoiler +
You are completely correct; the original analysis hinged upon enabling "withhold KP" ability.
So it is completely feasible that MSmith1 was the Night1 and thus, was saved. I think we can all agree that he was a logical kill choice.
Extending this theory: I firmly believe there is no strongarm in play.
If there was, it would have been logical to use native scum KP on MSmith1, and strongarm on SMcCoy. Thus mitigating scums danger personnel in one fell swoop.
Hence, my explanation for why I think they didnt shoot MSmith is below.
If I direct us back to the "withhold KP" theory.
It is completely centralized around scum thinking strategically - which again, I believe is realistic given the entry requirements for this game.
Therefore, even if the quadrumvirate is a serious threat to scum, I believe they would have come to the same conclusion as me.
There was simply too much risk to shoot a key target Day1 (without a strongarm) due to risking a block
The safer choice would have been to "withold KP" and attempt to eliminate two targets Night 2; ensuring the death of one prominent person.
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On June 04 2013 18:07 Baker1986 wrote:
How could you do this to me McCoy, how could you not be 100% right all the time?
WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
Matey,
Can you please provide a stance on H3.
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On June 04 2013 18:10 TheDavison wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
You are completely correct; the original analysis hinged upon enabling "withhold KP" ability.
So it is completely feasible that MSmith1 was the Night1 and thus, was saved. I think we can all agree that he was a logical kill choice.
Extending this theory: I firmly believe there is no strongarm in play.
If there was, it would have been logical to use native scum KP on MSmith1, and strongarm on SMcCoy. Thus mitigating scums danger personnel in one fell swoop.
Hence, my explanation for why I think they didnt shoot MSmith is below.
If I direct us back to the "withhold KP" theory.
It is completely centralized around scum thinking strategically - which again, I believe is realistic given the entry requirements for this game.
Therefore, even if the quadrumvirate is a serious threat to scum, I believe they would have come to the same conclusion as me.
There was simply too much risk to shoot a key target Day1 (without a strongarm) due to risking a block
The safer choice would have been to "withold KP" and attempt to eliminate two targets Night 2; ensuring the death of one prominent person.
+ Show Spoiler +
Luckily for us, you cannot separate the strongarm ability in that manner, otherwise I believe they would have done so. All the Strongarm ability does is supercharge the native factional KP into a 2KP on the same target, to avoid medic/veteran protection. This can only be done once, and at a cost of losing the 'godfather' status of being immune to checks. I question that maybe they shot at MSmith to preserve their Strongarm/Godfather, instead of opting to kill McCoy with it.
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On June 04 2013 18:24 A McGann wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2013 18:10 TheDavison wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
You are completely correct; the original analysis hinged upon enabling "withhold KP" ability.
So it is completely feasible that MSmith1 was the Night1 and thus, was saved. I think we can all agree that he was a logical kill choice.
Extending this theory: I firmly believe there is no strongarm in play.
If there was, it would have been logical to use native scum KP on MSmith1, and strongarm on SMcCoy. Thus mitigating scums danger personnel in one fell swoop.
Hence, my explanation for why I think they didnt shoot MSmith is below.
If I direct us back to the "withhold KP" theory.
It is completely centralized around scum thinking strategically - which again, I believe is realistic given the entry requirements for this game.
Therefore, even if the quadrumvirate is a serious threat to scum, I believe they would have come to the same conclusion as me.
There was simply too much risk to shoot a key target Day1 (without a strongarm) due to risking a block
The safer choice would have been to "withold KP" and attempt to eliminate two targets Night 2; ensuring the death of one prominent person. + Show Spoiler +
Luckily for us, you cannot separate the strongarm ability in that manner, otherwise I believe they would have done so. All the Strongarm ability does is supercharge the native factional KP into a 2KP on the same target, to avoid medic/veteran protection. This can only be done once, and at a cost of losing the 'godfather' status of being immune to checks. I question that maybe they shot at MSmith to preserve their Strongarm/Godfather, instead of opting to kill McCoy with it.
+ Show Spoiler +Yes, you are right.
With that in mind, I think it is then most likely a shot was attempted at MSmith1.
Somehow, JP was the only guy in the thread suspicious enough of SMcCoy to not save him. LOL.
Anyway, the irony of this is.
Scum might now realise it most likely is best to delay KP tonight, as they still don't know what is "out there".
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On June 04 2013 18:12 TheDavison wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2013 18:07 Baker1986 wrote:
How could you do this to me McCoy, how could you not be 100% right all the time?
WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY Matey, Can you please provide a stance on H3.
I'm too fragile and hurt right now.
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On June 04 2013 18:35 Baker1986 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2013 18:12 TheDavison wrote:On June 04 2013 18:07 Baker1986 wrote:
How could you do this to me McCoy, how could you not be 100% right all the time?
WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY Matey, Can you please provide a stance on H3. I'm too fragile and hurt right now.
Well just remember.
Before I rose from the ashes to become "TheDavison2", I was formerly known as "TheRealMcCoy"
Please keep in mind, TD2 is not asking you to look into Hurndall3.
It is in fact, "McCoy".
I look forward to your contribution Baker.
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On June 04 2013 18:33 TheDavison wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2013 18:24 A McGann wrote:On June 04 2013 18:10 TheDavison wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
You are completely correct; the original analysis hinged upon enabling "withhold KP" ability.
So it is completely feasible that MSmith1 was the Night1 and thus, was saved. I think we can all agree that he was a logical kill choice.
Extending this theory: I firmly believe there is no strongarm in play.
If there was, it would have been logical to use native scum KP on MSmith1, and strongarm on SMcCoy. Thus mitigating scums danger personnel in one fell swoop.
Hence, my explanation for why I think they didnt shoot MSmith is below.
If I direct us back to the "withhold KP" theory.
It is completely centralized around scum thinking strategically - which again, I believe is realistic given the entry requirements for this game.
Therefore, even if the quadrumvirate is a serious threat to scum, I believe they would have come to the same conclusion as me.
There was simply too much risk to shoot a key target Day1 (without a strongarm) due to risking a block
The safer choice would have been to "withold KP" and attempt to eliminate two targets Night 2; ensuring the death of one prominent person. + Show Spoiler +
Luckily for us, you cannot separate the strongarm ability in that manner, otherwise I believe they would have done so. All the Strongarm ability does is supercharge the native factional KP into a 2KP on the same target, to avoid medic/veteran protection. This can only be done once, and at a cost of losing the 'godfather' status of being immune to checks. I question that maybe they shot at MSmith to preserve their Strongarm/Godfather, instead of opting to kill McCoy with it.
+ Show Spoiler +Yes, you are right.
With that in mind, I think it is then most likely a shot was attempted at MSmith1.
Somehow, JP was the only guy in the thread suspicious enough of SMcCoy to not save him. LOL.
Anyway, the irony of this is.
Scum might now realise it most likely is best to delay KP tonight, as they still don't know what is "out there".
+ Show Spoiler +
Well, if there's no KP tonight, then they didn't delay N1, as you cant delay twice in a row, almost confirming that N1 was indeed sent MSmiths direction. I don't see a reason to just simply not shoot N1 when delay is an option.
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On June 04 2013 13:30 SMcCoy wrote:Took a look at H3 and HW. They never mention each other. Except for this occasion where H3 is reminded that HW exists. Show nested quote +On June 02 2013 05:18 Hurndall3 wrote:On June 02 2013 05:10 SMcCoy wrote:On June 02 2013 04:59 Hurndall3 wrote:
lol why are people still bitching about an easy d1wagon if we caught scum?
I think tom is really town. He has written so much and gone really in depth about his thought process.
Scum is between pt, pf, ec, td.
Don't shoot pt (thats the rper right?) cause he prob gonna get modkilled. Who's pf? What do you think about JP and Hartnell? Yesterday you gave JP a 53 % chance of him being scum, it should now be around 99 %. by pf i meant JP LOL. Add hartnell to the list of possible scum also. I forgot about him.
I read HW filter.
I think he is town. Even though I found his comments post-JP lynch offensive at the time of release; they have a brutal honesty which I am of the belief is hard to "fake" as scum.
In fairness, he is a lurker, so no interactions from HW -> H3 is not indicative.
As for why H3, does not post about HW; I do not have an answer.
As you may have surmised though, I think your gut on H3 is looking schmick though.
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i didn't post about hw because i forgot he existed. any more questions?
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On June 04 2013 20:49 Hurndall3 wrote:
i didn't post about hw because i forgot he existed. any more questions?
Yeah.
Why did you write this at the time I was going for the DrT lynch:
On May 30 2013 06:40 Hurndall3 wrote:
smccvoy you exhibited wishy washiness. that means not having a strong opinion and giving reasons why someone could be town as well as scum.
it is commonly seen as a scum trait.
that is why we were suspicious of you. :
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On June 04 2013 20:49 Hurndall3 wrote:
i didn't post about hw because i forgot he existed. any more questions?
Who do you want to lynch tomorrow and at least give a paragraph outlining why.
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On June 04 2013 21:01 SMcCoy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2013 20:49 Hurndall3 wrote:
i didn't post about hw because i forgot he existed. any more questions? Yeah. Why did you write this at the time I was going for the DrT lynch: Show nested quote +On May 30 2013 06:40 Hurndall3 wrote:
smccvoy you exhibited wishy washiness. that means not having a strong opinion and giving reasons why someone could be town as well as scum.
it is commonly seen as a scum trait.
that is why we were suspicious of you. :
At that time I thought that you were town and also DrT was town. (I didn't really get the cases against him at the time. It wasn't until someone wrote this excellent summary case that I read it really thoroughly and changed my mind).
So I was explaining why I initially thought smcc was scummy, and I was also explaining why i thought a town DrT also found smcc scummy.
On June 04 2013 21:23 A McGann wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2013 20:49 Hurndall3 wrote:
i didn't post about hw because i forgot he existed. any more questions? Who do you want to lynch tomorrow and at least give a paragraph outlining why.
This is gonna take some time that I don't have right now. I have to read the filters of TD, Ecc, HW, pf?(I may be forgetting someone else I found scummy) first. I will do this for d3 though.
Oh and TD saying "this game is still solvable"..that phrase strikes me as pretty scummy because obviously it's still solvable, in fact I think we are winning.
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H3
It all depends on who is "we" of course.
I think scum are in a very good position to close this game out.
Lastly, I am tired of your excuse: "I dont have time right now" a recurring theme since I replaced in.
Thus far, there have been 3 replacements. Davison, PT2000, Eccleston.
If you magically are town; and sincerely are time restricted to play the game properly. Do us and GM a courtesy and seek a replacement.
Otherwise; your current modus operandi suits the scum agenda perfectly.
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just because I'm time restricted doesn't mean Im going to ask for.a replacement. I have never and will never request a replacement, so you are stuck with me as shit tier town, I'm sorry.
while I was writing this message I could have been reading filters lol. prob should have been doing that instead. but doing this is easier because it doesn't require thought.
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Unfortunately, Right now. Having re-read the start of the game.
I think your interactions with Dr.T are in the same vein as with JPertwee.
So when you say "shit tier town", I think I am inclined to agree.
This leaves on the chopping block, PTroughton, TomB4 & Eccleston
If you are planning to filter dive. Can you please give a spiel on which of those three we should focus on.
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really sorry guys, I became quite unexpectedly busy. Luckily there actually isn't much to read.
HW looks like he is purposely lurking, but one thing I am confused about is this:
On June 03 2013 10:24 HartnellWill wrote:
This is what I see in the 14 posts of Eccleston's filter.
1 /in post
4 general earlygame banter posts discussing setup, other people's motives, etc.
1 post consisting of very fluffy DrTennant analysis that doesn't actually do anything and looks intentionally drawn out
1 post defending PT2
1 post redacting the post defending PT2 (note that this isn't scummy per se, but the fact that there's no pressure involved and the speculation doesn't do much to advance the game makes this post scummy in context)
1 post of wat
3 one-liners
1 post instasheeping DrT and redacting the post redacting the post defending PT2. Note the flip flops on possibly the strongest read this guy has had all game
1 post soft defending DrT
##Unvote
##Vote: Eccleston
Back to the lurker den
Let's say you're scum, and you're lurking intentionally. Everything in this post aside from the last line is something I'd expect scum to say/do. Summarize a player with as few details as possible and throw a vote, then disappear for a while.
What's strange is that he calls attention to his lurking with the last line before he disappears. I can't reconcile that with a scum mindset, it's almost too blatant. Anyone care to weigh in on this?
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On June 05 2013 04:47 TomB4 wrote:really sorry guys, I became quite unexpectedly busy. Luckily there actually isn't much to read. HW looks like he is purposely lurking, but one thing I am confused about is this: Show nested quote +On June 03 2013 10:24 HartnellWill wrote:
This is what I see in the 14 posts of Eccleston's filter.
1 /in post
4 general earlygame banter posts discussing setup, other people's motives, etc.
1 post consisting of very fluffy DrTennant analysis that doesn't actually do anything and looks intentionally drawn out
1 post defending PT2
1 post redacting the post defending PT2 (note that this isn't scummy per se, but the fact that there's no pressure involved and the speculation doesn't do much to advance the game makes this post scummy in context)
1 post of wat
3 one-liners
1 post instasheeping DrT and redacting the post redacting the post defending PT2. Note the flip flops on possibly the strongest read this guy has had all game
1 post soft defending DrT
##Unvote
##Vote: Eccleston
Back to the lurker den Let's say you're scum, and you're lurking intentionally. Everything in this post aside from the last line is something I'd expect scum to say/do. Summarize a player with as few details as possible and throw a vote, then disappear for a while. What's strange is that he calls attention to his lurking with the last line before he disappears. I can't reconcile that with a scum mindset, it's almost too blatant. Anyone care to weigh in on this?
Sure I'm here now, can talk about HW
Wrote a bit about him during day: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=18795425
He made a response to it:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 04 2013 11:21 HartnellWill wrote:I may have had a shit case but I didn't sheep the fucking medic. Anyways: On June 04 2013 09:11 PTroughton2 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2013 08:17 A McGann wrote:On June 04 2013 06:48 HartnellWill wrote:On June 04 2013 01:58 A McGann wrote:
I cant fault MSmiths analysis of HartnellWill's day 1 actions, as sparse as they are.
I'd feel more confident in the read on HW if Trout would make his alignment more apparent. The entire case hinges on Trout being town. If HW was given the choice of bussing Dr.T, who flipped goon, and Trout, who could be anything, then bussing the goon under suspicion is the obvious choice, making his day 1 vote look much less town.
I'll give him town for now with a caveat of 'Ill come back here later with more information'. Pooping in here quick to say that this is faulty logic. If Trout is town and DrT is scum and both are equal in votes, as a scum I'd rather push the Trout wagon because it's not worth sheeping the scum if there's a 50-50 chance I can convince people to sheep the town instead. Buh bye. You posted 45 minutes after JPertwee claimed medic and felt no inclination to pass judgement on that statement? Surely you must have seen it, it was the very last post before you wrote yours. Right, screw this. Anyone interested in a late switch to HW? Possibly. I haven't got notes on the full game but I swung into his filter to see what he has produced lately and I was semi-shocked it was this: Show nested quote +On June 03 2013 09:51 HartnellWill wrote:
I'm just a lurker who made the right vote at the right time.
But I suppose I should make some sort of scumhunting effort to support my innocence shouldn't I Show nested quote +On June 03 2013 10:24 HartnellWill wrote:
This is what I see in the 14 posts of Eccleston's filter.
1 /in post
4 general earlygame banter posts discussing setup, other people's motives, etc.
1 post consisting of very fluffy DrTennant analysis that doesn't actually do anything and looks intentionally drawn out
1 post defending PT2
1 post redacting the post defending PT2 (note that this isn't scummy per se, but the fact that there's no pressure involved and the speculation doesn't do much to advance the game makes this post scummy in context)
1 post of wat
3 one-liners
1 post instasheeping DrT and redacting the post redacting the post defending PT2. Note the flip flops on possibly the strongest read this guy has had all game
1 post soft defending DrT
##Unvote
##Vote: Eccleston
Back to the lurker den I'm not sure what attitude to attribute to this, but it reads like "meh better stop lurking for a minute" and then return to the status quo. Despite the fact that he is not really concerned about his thread appearance, as far as I can tell he was never truly a discussion topic D1. Show nested quote +On June 01 2013 04:19 HartnellWill wrote:
Holy fuck, this game is hard to play without knowing who anybody is.
Wait why start a wagon in the middle of the day? Not even justifying that DrT is town, just saying that TomB4 also looks scummy so we should lynch him just for the fun of it? I don't like that direction at all. The bolded is concerning. Smurf game = play town as hell or die, right? So he's aware that he can't bank on his name to save him from his activity level. His main contribution is a case on Eccleston which may or not be correct but he's acting like he's allowed to drop cases and disappear from the resulting discussion which is highly suspect. Before that, a weird push on Davison who I haven't pegged yet due to how Davison sticks to his guns on his own cases which essentially sheeped thread sentiment again, much like his first vote on DrT. Huh. Counter-point? -Doesn't care about his thread image whatsoever, perhaps to his own detriment. There's not caring if you look scummy and then there's being scummy looking on top of it with your few contributions. Perhaps he doesn't truly understand the gravity of his activity level?
JP claim: Can't think of a way to verify it, "trust but verify" works for me right now since we don't have a counter-claim. We'll see what happens tonight. I find that when I try my hardest to play town like you claim should be done in a smurf mafia, I pass off as a try-hard scum. Barring a modkill I want Eccleston to be lynched. It wasn't a big solid case but it's the best read I've got this game. I'll stick to that case while he's alive until either he gets lynched or I find a way to compose a really good case on someone even more suspicious looking. The gravity of my activity level doesn't seem to be very high because I'm still alive after two lynches of sparse activity. Which means obviously I'm not the scummiest looking if the fucking medic gets lynched before I do.
Couple of salient points here
- First paragraph, we get the reason why he's not trying terribly hard in terms of a non-applicable meta argument. This is problematic both because a) his name is not attached to his posts in any way therefore he can play any way he wishes and his potential "prior history of playing tryhard" is not a factor in this, and b) the (perhaps hidden) purpose of a full smurf game is to elevate the level of play.
- Second paragraph, here he shows that he's essentially going to be looking at players who are... playing like him. I guess he might want to qualify further what he means by suspicious looking unless it's not activity inclusive, which I can then understand.
- Third paragraph, did he really defend his activity by saying that even the medic got lynched before him? He may be upset that the medic was lynched, but it's clear who he blames and it's not himself.
He's acting like his behavior is out of his control, i.e. that we would lynch him for looking like try hard scum as opposed to try hard town, and he seems to be playing the victim from the tone of this post. I think he's a good candidate for tomorrow unless he shapes up in a hurry.
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Eccleston have you had the opportunity to catch up with the game yet? Lots of people have been screaming for your blood, your predecessor -- like my own -- left much to be desired. We're the newest new guys, let's talk about what we can see with our fresher perspective.
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stahp!! HW is confirmed town as far as im concerned.
HW SAID (too hard to quote shit properly)
I'm not the scummiest looking if the fucking medic gets lynched before I do.
You don't even need context. Contained in that single sentence is an attitude that is impossible to fake as scum.
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On June 05 2013 05:55 PTroughton2 wrote:
Eccleston have you had the opportunity to catch up with the game yet? Lots of people have been screaming for your blood, your predecessor -- like my own -- left much to be desired. We're the newest new guys, let's talk about what we can see with our fresher perspective.
TL went down for me last night and didn't come up before I went to bed. I'm actually just catching up now-- sorry.
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EPT
