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Let's play a game... |
Mr. PT2000,
If I may direct some of your energy towards the below.
On June 03 2013 16:45 PTroughton2 wrote:+ Show Spoiler [*Snip*] +
MEMO
From: New Management
To: Smurf Mafia
I have assumed control of PT2 (now known as PT2000). I read through the thread quickly while sleepy so I can't give much good analysis at the moment, but I wrote down a couple of thoughts that I can share that stem from my initial impressions of the game. As far as what PT2 was doing in his first and apparently only post, you're going to have to ask him if you find out after the game is over. Made a few notes early in the reading process (I hadn't read the game at all before subbing in, sorry this is pretty weak right now).
Eccleston posting for the sake of posting. Struck me as scummy as all get-out. I'll be reviewing him in detail later in the day. Lots of good arguments for Eccleston probably being scum that I saw being posted by other players. + Show Spoiler [*snip*] +On May 29 2013 17:33 Eccleston wrote:
Reporting in. Why do you prefer guessing at the scum team instead of trying to generate constructive discussion? On May 29 2013 17:45 Eccleston wrote:
Setup speculation, lynching policies ... something that you can reply to.
PT2000. A.McGann provided an excellent take on Eccleston here.
(1) Once you have had a chance to assimilate, let us know if your opinion has changed.
+ Show Spoiler [*Snip*] +MSmith had a really nice conversation starter and also pointed out what struck me immediately about Ecc as I began to read the thread, started with a green read on MSmith and I don't really recall much else sticking out during the rest of the day. maybe I'm just too sleepy to remember or maybe there's something there to look at. Here's where my original read stemmed from: Show nested quote +On May 29 2013 17:51 MSmith1 wrote:
OK Eccleston.
So far if I had to guess I'd say town on A McGann because he made a polite hello post, tried to learn something about me, and tried to generate discussion.
And I would guess that you are scum because the first thing you did was throw some dirt at me which I feel was unwarranted and unnecessarily negative.
Your turn. What alignment is A McGann and what alignment am I?
McCoy has been town cheiftan so far and Baker seems to be hinting he's rather comfortable with sheeping McCoy. Looking into Baker as well, not sure how comfortable I am with him being a sheep but at least it's McCoy who is the shepherd. I'd be careful. Baker1986 might be jealous of the great polishing job you just gave to SMcCoy.
(2) What I would like to know is your motivation for raising Baker as an item of discussion instead of a hot potato like JPertwee?
This is exacerbated by the below.
+ Show Spoiler [snip] +So you have my thoughts based on my first quick 90-minute read through the game so far. If you want impressions on players who I haven't mentioned that I will be looking at when I return that would be swell. Looks like we're talking about JP most recently so I'll add him to my to-do list. Goodnight. (3) Yes, please share the JP read.
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On June 03 2013 23:25 JPertwee wrote:
It's nice to see that you can be given all of that info, and still find nothing to say. I'm not hanging today, because I'm not guilty.
This is a fallacy.
I am confident you will hang today. Your stance on "Guilt" has no bearing.
+ Show Spoiler +
This should solve the majority issue.
Quick question for you JP.
On May 30 2013 00:03 JPertwee wrote:+ Show Spoiler [*snip*] +On May 29 2013 23:48 SMcCoy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 29 2013 23:31 DrTennant wrote:On May 29 2013 23:21 SMcCoy wrote:On May 29 2013 22:17 DrTennant wrote:On May 29 2013 18:40 SMcCoy wrote:
Hello.
I took note of Eccleston's aggressive entrance.
His latest post suggests that he doesn't know what to make of MSmith.
I have bad vibes about him. My first guess would have been to assume that scum did not post yet, they have no interest in driving discussion at early stages. That is what I assume.
Eccleston's strange paranoid behavior with subtle criticism suggests that he has differing methods of finding scum or that he is trying to look like he's scumhunting by voicing quick, exaggerated suspicions with not much reasoning behind them. At first criticizing very early posts and then proceeding to call someone's actions ambiguous without specifying why.
We might just differ in our methods but I will be observing this subject during our stay and beg him to keep posts as informative and objective as possible. This is actually the scummiest post in thread in my opinion super ambiguous and actually says nothing. Says he took note of whatever that means offers some reasion why eccleston's posts might be interpreted as scummy then leaves justification for why it might not be. Why so wishy washy? You scum? It's a considerate post. At that point the majority of players didn't post, and I went by the assumption that scum doesn't post early. I voiced my opinion on Eccleston's excessive aggression, but it's not enough for me to make a judgment in light of the fact that scum might not even have posted yet. I think Ecclestone's posts might come from both a bad townie or scum. You call it ambiguous, expecting me to give a definite opinion. I would like you to tell me why you think that me voicing suspicion against a player is considered as saying nothing. Would you rather expect me to make a quick judgment this early in the game? Bolded your loaded question. Looks like faked hostility, doesn't reflect interest into finding out about my thought process. Well i don't know about you but i'm suspicious of everyone. i didnt take it as you saying you were suspicious of Eccleston i took as complete filler post that said absolutely nothing really and i took it as wishy washy and posting for the sake of posting by not taking a stance. I dont understand why making early judgements could be seen as bad i change my mind on things all the time based on new information and flip floping being scummy is a lie pushed by scum. Its only scummy when its convenient. So i dont understand your worry about making snap judgements. You didn't bring up Ecclestone after he told Smith that he doesn't know if he's angry villager or alien though. I'm curious why you didn't find his post to be filler content as opposed to mine. The bolded is essentially a statement about scumhunting method. Do you want me to make quick judgments? You seem like you're justifying quick judgments, then asking me why I'm worried about making them. If I'm worried about making them it's cause Ecclestone's posts didn't allow for a quick judgment, as already laid out. Now, why do you bring that up. Your posting went from telling me my post is wishy washy to justifying your own judgmental posting, is it to tell me that I should make quick judgments? I don't recall ever asking you to justify yourself for quick judgment, but you brought up a justification for it nonetheless. How is it relevant to you claiming that I am scum? Show nested quote +On May 29 2013 23:32 JPertwee wrote:On May 29 2013 23:21 SMcCoy wrote:On May 29 2013 22:17 DrTennant wrote:On May 29 2013 18:40 SMcCoy wrote:
Hello.
I took note of Eccleston's aggressive entrance.
His latest post suggests that he doesn't know what to make of MSmith.
I have bad vibes about him. My first guess would have been to assume that scum did not post yet, they have no interest in driving discussion at early stages. That is what I assume.
Eccleston's strange paranoid behavior with subtle criticism suggests that he has differing methods of finding scum or that he is trying to look like he's scumhunting by voicing quick, exaggerated suspicions with not much reasoning behind them. At first criticizing very early posts and then proceeding to call someone's actions ambiguous without specifying why.
We might just differ in our methods but I will be observing this subject during our stay and beg him to keep posts as informative and objective as possible. This is actually the scummiest post in thread in my opinion super ambiguous and actually says nothing. Says he took note of whatever that means offers some reasion why eccleston's posts might be interpreted as scummy then leaves justification for why it might not be. Why so wishy washy? You scum? It's a considerate post. At that point the majority of players didn't post, and I went by the assumption that scum doesn't post early. I voiced my opinion on Eccleston's excessive aggression, but it's not enough for me to make a judgment in light of the fact that scum might not even have posted yet. I think Ecclestone's posts might come from both a bad townie or scum. You call it ambiguous, expecting me to give a definite opinion. I would like you to tell me why you think that me voicing suspicion against a player is considered as saying nothing. Would you rather expect me to make a quick judgment this early in the game? Bolded your loaded question. Looks like faked hostility, doesn't reflect interest into finding out about my thought process. McCoy, what do you think Eccleston's chances of being human are? I can understand your thought process on how you're reading Eccleston. The part I cannot understand is your reasoning on writing a post where I can only gather you're saying "he is null" because you don't even state whether you think he is more likely to be of either alignment. When you wrote that post, what was the explicit purpose of it? I already laid out that he could be both. Until he posts more I'll refrain from judging. Purpose of the post: Trigger an answer and change the posting style of a possible bad townie to a more constructive version. Communicate that I'm suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler +I think DrTennant is scum You have to understand on this one, McCoy, that I can see both sides of your and Dr. Tennant's dispute. I can understand exactly where his suspicion of you came from in your entrance, + Show Spoiler [*snip*] +but since then you've alleviated my fears. I might be biased on this because it seems I've followed a similar thought train to him. Is there anything specific in Dr. Tennant's play that you think make him an alien, or is it just this push?
Dr. Tennant, can you clarify what you mean about Eccleston? I can only think of one particular point in his favour for his wishy washy post, and no one has touched on it. I want to know exactly why Eccleston wasn't on your radar.
Now that Dr.T has flipped scum. Do you still think you "can understand exactly where his suspicion" came from?
For Oatsmaster/GM: ##Vote: JPertwee
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So to confirm.
Neither msmith or JP received a saved notification.
So either scum withheld. Or JP is lying.
Whilst I would hate to lynch an uncontested medic claim...
I find it really unlikely scum withheld night1. That makes the game so much more difficult to win, especially when they already dropped a goon.
I'm sticking with JP, unless someone is able to share more information to aid the equation.
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Ahh read op. No notifications given.
Hmmm. For me, that changes things.
Msmith1 was a valid target. McCoy was too obvious.
I'm at work and don't have time to re read JP though...
I still hate his wishy washiness in promoting one. Ore lynch target, but pushing the status quo.
Hence, currently I'm still sticking to my guns. I.e. this is a ploy.
If someone is willing to do the leg work. I will check in 30min to lynch and reassess. Sorry guys. Work is work after all.
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##unvote
##vote: tomb4
I'm off gents. Best of luck
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On June 04 2013 11:08 SMcCoy wrote:
What do you guys think of Davison's vote switch? Would he believe that we could manage to switch in this short time as town, or did he gamble on the lynch going through anyway and looking good post-flip?
Excuse me.
U r the one who issued the rallying call.
I respond, and u try to hold me accountable.
I think baker is getting to your head.
U have showed great insight multiple times in this game. However the mere notion of what you suggested is completely outlandish.
I'm disappointed we lynched a medic as well.
Personally I'm going to review how the JP lynch built up steam, and look for specifically over compensated +1s.
In my experience, that presents scums easiest way to join a town bandwagon.
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McCoy.
I agree
Get rid of h3
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On June 04 2013 11:34 Hurndall3 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2013 11:32 HartnellWill wrote:On June 04 2013 11:25 A McGann wrote:
Now everyone comes out of the woodworks after the lynch. This is ridiculous.
Fuck it, I'm taking a break for a couple hours. I got home minutes before the lynch and took me about 20 minutes to catch up on the thread. I was working all day for several days in a row now. But I'm not going to blame that. Truthfully I didn't think I needed to try that hard because town was just owning it up I really didn't have anything to add with my limited time. Also everyone thought I was town so yeah.. my job was done kind of.
Mcgann.
This response is precisely why I called into question baker yesterday.
Unfortunately, whether town or scum. I cannot have a go at H3 for this attitude.
It is indeed a completely valid point of view to hold.
I.e. Follow the leader.
What many forget is.
Scum are as strong as their best player.
Town are as strong as their worst.
Ppl like McCoy and msmith1, whilst certainly capable of making validated and correct decisions. still require individuals to go back and forth with them and Challenge them. This process improves critical thinking on all levels.
I hope town decides to move forward from day2 and instead of pointing accusatory fingers. Rather, work together and critically challenge each others points of view.
Day1 proved this game is solvable. We just need to do it together.
Personally I think the challenge in this game is separating the sycophant towns asking for McCoy guidance from the blending scum. Its the typical lurking scum vs bad town scenario with a twist.
So what am I going to do?
As I said prior. My plan of attack when I get home is to review the over compensated +1s to bandwagon JP. I expect to provide some decent leads.
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I can work with that plan. Its safe play and also prevents "grush" syndrome
I know your focus appears entrenched between eccle and tomb4.
May I ask for a stance on PT2000.
I.e. on the radar?
And
How much lenience to give to begin contributing meaningfully.
Why?
His spiel on baker day2 rubbed me the wrong way.
Whilst we both raised baker as an item of discussion, I felt the motivations were completely different.
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Now.
Rereading JP medic reveal.
I'm kicking myself. It is so damn blunt and authentic. That's the love/hate relationship of hindsight I guess.
Bakers response essentially was to belittle his scum target, however the current evidence stacked against him points to immature town.
Tomb4 response was interesting.. But I think it is best he focuses on replying to McCoy observations.
Of suspicion to me is mcgann.
Now for context.
I replaced in and didn't read op.
Thus, when I was talking about it doesn't make sense to withhold shots, I was referencing standard Mafia dynamics.
If I understood the kp rules of withholding, I would most certainly advocate that path as scum. I.e. a 180 flip in thought.
Now mcgann says he agrees that It makes no sense to withhold. So let's continue to push JP the "fake" medic.
What is interesting is later he discusses the kp benefits of withholding, hence he was always aware.
I want an explanation why mcgann thought it was outlandish for scum to withhold kp.. Effectively pushing the JP medic lynch
Gents. Note this is exacerbated by subsequent posts where he creates logic scenarios and then admits they are wrong. U need to decide whether genuine or part of the acting routine.
I hope this becomes an item we can all discuss.
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On June 04 2013 13:10 Hurndall3 wrote:
TD, you think i'm a sycophant?
if you think that, I think you need to l2dictionary
Do u think I am town?
If so, why do u care what I think.
I suggest instead of throwing around cheap insults, that you seek avenues that indeed lead to the discovery of scum.
Surely you must realise there is a high propensity for msmith1 and smccoy to be shot tonight. We need as much POSITIVE discussion to place town in good stead come day3.
I think this game is solvable H3. We just need to work together.
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Mr Mcgann.
I saw that response and agreed with it when I thought we were playing normal Mafia kp withhold.
I know now, we are not playing standard rules. So yes, I still take issue.
Take it as a sign of respect - as hard as it is to swallow.
Throughout this game you have displayed snippets of wisdom. Hence I can only feel grave disappointment reading comments such as the one we are discussing.
I shall raise two more points.
1, I'm trying to put you in the limelight.
I imagine you as town, would be someone who thrived and utilised the moment to prove without doubt your innocence.
I'm not getting that from you...
2.
Aren't u the one advocating eccleston innocence?
What is your plan of "attack" with eccleston 2.0
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Firstly, apologies for the massive post about to follow.
It started off as a retort, and developed into a case. Thats what happens when site maintenance kicks in for 1 hour. 
+ Show Spoiler [To A.McGann] +On June 04 2013 13:56 A McGann wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 04 2013 13:45 TheDavison wrote:
Mr Mcgann.
I saw that response and agreed with it when I thought we were playing normal Mafia kp withhold.
I know now, we are not playing standard rules. So yes, I still take issue.
Take it as a sign of respect - as hard as it is to swallow.
Throughout this game you have displayed snippets of wisdom. Hence I can only feel grave disappointment reading comments such as the one we are discussing.
I shall raise two more points.
1, I'm trying to put you in the limelight.
I imagine you as town, would be someone who thrived and utilised the moment to prove without doubt your innocence.
I'm not getting that from you...
2.
Aren't u the one advocating eccleston innocence?
What is your plan of "attack" with eccleston 2.0 1) If you cannot get a grasp on my innocence from the last 25 pages, then just give up and quit. The fact that this game has been made infinitely harder by half a dozen townies doing jack-squat all is god damn INFURIATING, especially when they come in after the lynch saying "At least I didn't lynch the medic HURRRRRRR". 2) What kind of a question is this? If I was advocating his innocence before the replacement, why would that change as soon as he replaces out? It wont and hasn't. I think he's more than likely town and until he gives me a reason to think otherwise, he can stay that way. McGann, I think you have done a superb job separating yourself from the chaff in this limited person game. However, I do not think for one second that you have established innocence to the degree you expressed when suggesting I quit. Considering the below - even you appear to acknowledge this thread sentiment. On June 04 2013 01:46 A McGann wrote:
Confirmed isn't a sliding scale, its binary. Yes or no.
We're all no, as far as I know.
But people like yourself, McCoy and Smith get to go in the "Super, duper unlikely scum, most probably town, ill take everything they say at face value" bracket. Now. I hope we can put our differences aside and work together constructively. I think you have great ideas, so, if you think the below is worthwhile I look forward to your constructive opinion.
+ Show Spoiler [True Agenda] +When discussing the witholding kp "dilemma" I was actually staging the conversation to be a mechanism to discuss the "withheld kp" with the masses. I was hoping you would play along - but hey, sometimes we have to roll with the punches.
To me, the benefit of witholding KP is (with no godfather/strongarm):
(1) Fake claim medic or vet or JK
(2) Fake target a person (assuming medic /JK is in the game) to setup a kill next cycle.
(3) Target someone likely to be protected by double stacking
(4) Blitzkrieg -> Rapidly take out town leaders/threats to destablise town.
(5) Improve odds of a fatality -> i.e. hope town medic + JK target the same person. 1 of your KP hits the unprotected.
(6) Promote "waste of time" discussions like this =)
Perhaps there are other scenarios, it is up to you to decide whether they are important to include; and make my conclusion obsolete.
If the godfather/strongarm is in the game
Points (1) and (2) and (4) and (5) and (6) apply. (3) Is covered by the strongarm, who can only shoot once, but is worth 2kp.
If we evaluate those scenarios
(1) *HAD* slim potential. Now that a medic has been killed, it is unlikely for a fake JK/vet claim to occur. It is too easy to counter.
(2) I dont think the return is worth the investment. This is generally frowned upon by good players anyways.
(3) Again, i dont think the return is worth the investment. Also generally frowned upon.
(4) This is certainly worth while *IF* town is on the wrong path.
(5) Also worthwhile. Its a a safe way to mitigate protective roles and 1KP.
(6) Its possible. But requires in my opinion a myopic scum. Considering GM entry requirements, I would like to assume this is unlikely.
Henceforth, the evaluations above indicate that the scum objectives are best satisfied by enabling the double KP to execute either (4) or (5); with one caveat. That is, the benefit is best gained when the blue roles are unknown as it is there to mitigate that uncertainty.
Now of course, we are already thinking the town leaders are likely to be shot. This is merely reinventing the wheel, right?
+ Show Spoiler [The Point] +
So Why is this important?
Because scum were down 1 person after Day 1.
Playing the game to execute scenario (4) and (5) indicate a confidence to finish off the game in a strategical manner. Or more specifically, they are not playing in survival mode: i.e. trying to do anything it takes to take off pressure.
This is important to realise...During Night 1, Scum were very likely: not threatened
This establishes the following dichotomy:
(a) Scum have absolute balls of steel - a possibility that I expect a handful of TL players to be capable of.
or;
(b) Scum did not feel pressured, as they have either camouflaged as town; OR, are not viewed as a major threat.
Keep in mind, the decision to boycott KP was made Night 1, so you have to look back into the game with the thread sentiment of Night 1.
+ Show Spoiler [In Action] +If we examine the final votes for both Days. On June 01 2013 11:30 Oatsmaster wrote:
Day 1
SMcCoy (0): Hurndall3.
TheDavison (0): Hurndall3.
DrTennant (8): SMcCoy, Baker1986, MSmith1, HartnellWil, A McGann, Eccleston, Hurndall3, TomB4
Hurndall3 (1): PTroughton2, TheDavison
PTroughton2 (2): TomB4, JPertwee, DrTennant, Hurndall3
TomB4 (1): TheDavison
On June 04 2013 10:52 Oatsmaster wrote:
Day2
jpertwee (7): baker1986, smccoy, msmith1, tomb4, a mcgann, thedavison, PTroughton2, thedavison
thedavison (1): a mcgann, hartnellwill, jpertwee, hurndall3
eccleston (2): hartnellwill, jpertwee
hartnellwill (0): PTroughton2
tomb4 (1): thedavison
Someone who stands out to me as a contender to satisfy that dichotomy is: Hurndall3.On Day1, VCA indicates he has thrown his vote around randomly seeing where it sticks. In fact the vote justifications below are sycophantic at best and outright scummy at worst. Pay particular attention to the over compensation with his Dr.T sheep vote//bus. + Show Spoiler [H3 justifications] +On May 29 2013 23:01 Hurndall3 wrote:
yup mccoys post is scummy as fuck.
until he makes himself seem more town:
##vote smccoy On May 30 2013 03:17 Hurndall3 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2013 03:11 TheDavison wrote:
I'd like to bring attention to H3's posting, in reading and rereading the thread I found him less than useless. He has a fair number of posts and has been involved in discussion without adding anything to said discussion.
He blatantly sheeped an early case without adding anything to it and unvoted as soon as the casee responded. Since that moment he has been complaining about the difficulty of reading an all smurf game, which is the reason I've read the thread more than once, and hasn't added anything to the progression of day one discussion.
For now I find H3 the scummiest player in the thread and shall, therefore, vote for him. I ask each of you to either vote with me and tell me why yo agree with me or, if you are not voting with me, tell me why you disagree.
Vote:Hurndall ok
##vote thedavisonpretty self explanatory imo. This is his first post! On May 31 2013 00:06 Hurndall3 wrote:
the bandwagon of justice rolling through.. it is so beautiful
##vote ptroughton On May 31 2013 11:20 Hurndall3 wrote:
##unvote
##vote DrT
k I think I can sheep this DrT shit now that I read the case thoroughly.
these are the points that convinced me to sheep.
1 DrT's overdefense
2 unnatural calmness
3 repeated appeal that scum is among the inactives
4 one dimensional scumreads On June 03 2013 05:09 Hurndall3 wrote:
##vote td
jp is looking town from that last post. going with the alternate wagon. Besides I thought td looked scummy from his first post. On June 04 2013 11:10 Hurndall3 wrote:
fuck I guess my vote is really outdated.
##unvote
##vote JP
NOT THAT IT MATTERS Compare this to "TomB4" who was in the final two to seal Dr.T fate. On June 01 2013 07:36 TomB4 wrote:
I'd rather feel dumb than correct, since I am the minority in this case. It's better for us if I'm wrong.
##unvote
##vote DrTennant There is a stark contrast in confidence in the sheep vote.
H3; who never explained any of his D1 votes in gross detail, suddenly feels the need to provide a summary account when it comes to Dr.T. His Day1 performance sequence is repeated in full force on Day2, when he votes for Davison citing "JP looks town", before seizing an opportunity and rescinding back to JP - with no explanation. If i haphazard a guess, I would say with confidence: His actions with JP are a scum slip. (i.e. jumped into the thread without reading, and realised the error in judgement and recanted) Let me repeat it for you: On June 03 2013 05:09 Hurndall3 wrote:
##vote td
jp is looking town from that last post. going with the alternate wagon. Besides I thought td looked scummy from his first post. On June 04 2013 11:10 Hurndall3 wrote:
fuck I guess my vote is really outdated.
##unvote
##vote JP
NOT THAT IT MATTERS Please remember thread sentiment: barely anyone thought JP was town; or even if they had a "gut feeling". JP filter did NOT do not much to help them present a counter case. However, H3 suddenly knows it all. It doesnt matter that 1 day elapsed between the H3 backpedal. He backed the horse (JP) when no one else did (I would bet due to knowledge we dont have)... and when the opportunity came he took it and provided ZERO justification. Just like all his other votes except Dr.T. SMcCoy has already touched on some odd interactions with H3 and other(s) in the thread.
+ Show Spoiler [The Outcome] +
Guys, I am suggesting that regardless of who dies this cycle: please push forward and secure the lynch of H3.
(1) His voting of Dr.T is suspect
(2) His voting of JP is suspect
(3) His behaviour fits the pattern of scum who has blended into the "not a current thread" zone, thus satisfies the requirements of enabling the "withhold KP" ability.
(4) Has suspect behaviour with other participants.
Please discuss this.
I think this person I speak of in "The Outcome" satisifies all the criteria I have been looking for.
i.e.
Over Compensated votes on scum.
Low details when voting town.
& satisfies my "withhold kp" musings in the spoilers above.
Let me know your thoughts. If you think I am wrong. Point it out!
Construction discussion can only help lead us in the right direction!
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A.McGann,
Excellent observations.
I agree in full that we can move beyond NK speculation as it will all become evident in 20hrs or so, which decision(s) scum made.
I think your additions to the H3 case are excellent, and are highly indicative of a scum mindset.
I am eagerly awaiting the feedback of H3.
As an aside A.McGann, my musings on your feedback regarding NK speculation.
Spoilered as its not that relevant anymore.
+ Show Spoiler +
You are completely correct; the original analysis hinged upon enabling "withhold KP" ability.
So it is completely feasible that MSmith1 was the Night1 and thus, was saved. I think we can all agree that he was a logical kill choice.
Extending this theory: I firmly believe there is no strongarm in play.
If there was, it would have been logical to use native scum KP on MSmith1, and strongarm on SMcCoy. Thus mitigating scums danger personnel in one fell swoop.
Hence, my explanation for why I think they didnt shoot MSmith is below.
If I direct us back to the "withhold KP" theory.
It is completely centralized around scum thinking strategically - which again, I believe is realistic given the entry requirements for this game.
Therefore, even if the quadrumvirate is a serious threat to scum, I believe they would have come to the same conclusion as me.
There was simply too much risk to shoot a key target Day1 (without a strongarm) due to risking a block
The safer choice would have been to "withold KP" and attempt to eliminate two targets Night 2; ensuring the death of one prominent person.
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On June 04 2013 18:07 Baker1986 wrote:
How could you do this to me McCoy, how could you not be 100% right all the time?
WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
Matey,
Can you please provide a stance on H3.
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On June 04 2013 18:24 A McGann wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2013 18:10 TheDavison wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
You are completely correct; the original analysis hinged upon enabling "withhold KP" ability.
So it is completely feasible that MSmith1 was the Night1 and thus, was saved. I think we can all agree that he was a logical kill choice.
Extending this theory: I firmly believe there is no strongarm in play.
If there was, it would have been logical to use native scum KP on MSmith1, and strongarm on SMcCoy. Thus mitigating scums danger personnel in one fell swoop.
Hence, my explanation for why I think they didnt shoot MSmith is below.
If I direct us back to the "withhold KP" theory.
It is completely centralized around scum thinking strategically - which again, I believe is realistic given the entry requirements for this game.
Therefore, even if the quadrumvirate is a serious threat to scum, I believe they would have come to the same conclusion as me.
There was simply too much risk to shoot a key target Day1 (without a strongarm) due to risking a block
The safer choice would have been to "withold KP" and attempt to eliminate two targets Night 2; ensuring the death of one prominent person. + Show Spoiler +
Luckily for us, you cannot separate the strongarm ability in that manner, otherwise I believe they would have done so. All the Strongarm ability does is supercharge the native factional KP into a 2KP on the same target, to avoid medic/veteran protection. This can only be done once, and at a cost of losing the 'godfather' status of being immune to checks. I question that maybe they shot at MSmith to preserve their Strongarm/Godfather, instead of opting to kill McCoy with it.
+ Show Spoiler +Yes, you are right.
With that in mind, I think it is then most likely a shot was attempted at MSmith1.
Somehow, JP was the only guy in the thread suspicious enough of SMcCoy to not save him. LOL.
Anyway, the irony of this is.
Scum might now realise it most likely is best to delay KP tonight, as they still don't know what is "out there".
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On June 04 2013 18:35 Baker1986 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2013 18:12 TheDavison wrote:On June 04 2013 18:07 Baker1986 wrote:
How could you do this to me McCoy, how could you not be 100% right all the time?
WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY Matey, Can you please provide a stance on H3. I'm too fragile and hurt right now.
Well just remember.
Before I rose from the ashes to become "TheDavison2", I was formerly known as "TheRealMcCoy"
Please keep in mind, TD2 is not asking you to look into Hurndall3.
It is in fact, "McCoy".
I look forward to your contribution Baker.
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On June 04 2013 13:30 SMcCoy wrote:Took a look at H3 and HW. They never mention each other. Except for this occasion where H3 is reminded that HW exists. Show nested quote +On June 02 2013 05:18 Hurndall3 wrote:On June 02 2013 05:10 SMcCoy wrote:On June 02 2013 04:59 Hurndall3 wrote:
lol why are people still bitching about an easy d1wagon if we caught scum?
I think tom is really town. He has written so much and gone really in depth about his thought process.
Scum is between pt, pf, ec, td.
Don't shoot pt (thats the rper right?) cause he prob gonna get modkilled. Who's pf? What do you think about JP and Hartnell? Yesterday you gave JP a 53 % chance of him being scum, it should now be around 99 %. by pf i meant JP LOL. Add hartnell to the list of possible scum also. I forgot about him.
I read HW filter.
I think he is town. Even though I found his comments post-JP lynch offensive at the time of release; they have a brutal honesty which I am of the belief is hard to "fake" as scum.
In fairness, he is a lurker, so no interactions from HW -> H3 is not indicative.
As for why H3, does not post about HW; I do not have an answer.
As you may have surmised though, I think your gut on H3 is looking schmick though.
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EPT
