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On June 08 2013 09:35 Firere345 wrote: Hey ffery. What besides my missing a full 24 hours seems scummy to you? p much everything you posted.
phoneposting.
Will manage s real res ponse in 5
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On June 08 2013 09:35 Firere345 wrote: Hey ffery. What besides my missing a full 24 hours seems scummy to you? Do I know you?
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On June 08 2013 10:00 Firere345 wrote: Well ffery, you said you wanted to talk, but now have stalled me out until the deadline, which strikes me as strange, because if I remember correctly, you were one of those that wanted one last talk before you lynched me I don't remember saying that, though I did perk up interest when you showed up. Unfortunately, I couldn't stay at my computer.
You didn't answer my question.
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It's ok to post during the night phase?
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On June 08 2013 10:23 Skanjab1s wrote: Thoughts on LoneMeow guys? I need to look over his posts and think about experience level. newb scum is a lot more likely to entangle themselves when a scum partner is going down. Though being a mafia PR made firere maybe look worth the risk.
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The LoneMeow filter link on page 1 is broken.
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If LoneMeow is scum, I think he's experienced scum.
- mafia theory re MYLO/LYLO in his first game post.
- pushing Umasi to build a case. This was the post where he said he was tempted to disagree about iV. That language seemed odd to me. Sort of hedgy given iV looked town as fuck with his button-pushing.
- direct interaction with Firere.
On June 06 2013 15:21 LoneMeow wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2013 12:40 Firere345 wrote:On June 06 2013 12:33 Umasi wrote:
I don't like how you try to deflect any pressure that could come onto you, before it even comes onto you. There's no reason to feel that you're under suspicion at this point, and I think it points towards blue or scum. Or I'm reading into it to much.
At this point I'm leaning towards scum. Yeah, the random lynch vote also leads me in that direction. Firere345, has your opinion changed? Do you still lean scum on iVLosK!?
This is pretty interesting:
On June 07 2013 20:59 LoneMeow wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2013 19:19 Onegu wrote: Lonemeow what is your strongest scum read at this point? I would also ask yavanna the same thing. It's not really a strong scum read at all, but right now I'd want to lynch Firere345. Doesn't say much, sheeps the current "consensus". Promises to participate more but doesn't seem to be doing so. This situation with Gotard has me worried, I can understand why people would want to lynch him but I'm having hard time convincing myself scum would dare be so brash.
And then his vote:
On June 08 2013 07:10 LoneMeow wrote: Gotard's posts since the original incident make him look more scummy rather than less. And re-thinking what Firere345 actually wrote made me realize my read on him was very weak. So I think I'd rather lynch Gotard after all.
##Vote: Gotard
He didn't switch his vote. He held onto it. Gotard looked like a slam dunk at one point. Firere only had one vote on him when I started arguing against a Gotard lynch. Mine was the second vote on Firere and then they started to pile up over the next couple pages IIRC.
The Gotard wagon didn't start to soften after LoneMeow's vote, though, so I'm not sure. Would be a ballsy move trying to singlehandedly change the lynch direction at that particular point in time.
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EBWOP
didn't start to soften until after LoneMeow's vote.
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On June 08 2013 10:20 Skanjab1s wrote:LoneMeow looks really bad now To add to Stimaddict's case: Show nested quote +On June 07 2013 20:59 LoneMeow wrote:On June 07 2013 19:19 Onegu wrote: Lonemeow what is your strongest scum read at this point? I would also ask yavanna the same thing. It's not really a strong scum read at all, but right now I'd want to lynch Firere345. Doesn't say much, sheeps the current "consensus". Promises to participate more but doesn't seem to be doing so. This situation with Gotard has me worried, I can understand why people would want to lynch him but I'm having hard time convincing myself scum would dare be so brash. Lightly FoS's Firere345, to try to distance himself, but suddenly, when there is a chance to save Fire, he strangely thinks that Gotard's recent posts were more scummy than townie (which is the opposite of what I thought) and declares his read on Fire "weak" (no reason was given for this change, and Firere hadn't said anything to make himself seem less suspicious): Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 07:10 LoneMeow wrote: Gotard's posts since the original incident make him look more scummy rather than less. And re-thinking what Firere345 actually wrote made me realize my read on him was very weak. So I think I'd rather lynch Gotard after all.
##Vote: Gotard
Basically, he does a complete 180 for little reason, when the chance that he could save Firere arose.
Where was the sudden chance? What changed in the gamestate before that vote?
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MYLO = mislynch and lose. Basically a 3-1 or 4-2 town v scum scenario in this game. Town outnumber scum by 2. If town mislynch, then they are down to outnumbering scum by 1 at nightfall, and then parity will be reached with the night kill. This assumes no town night actions can prevent the scum kill.
LYLO = lynch or lose. This comes about when town outnumber scum by 1. so 2-1 or 3-2 probably in this game. If town doesn't lynch scum that day town automatically lose.
If we have an SK then the calculations get more complicated.
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On June 06 2013 14:58 Xzavier wrote: The reason he started shitflinging was so people could start forming reads on everybody. In town vs town arguements you can form reads based on how people react to them. doesnt matter if the arguments are t v t or t v s or s v s.
the reactions will still reflect motivation.
can't believe I'm rereading this on my phone. 2nd power outage of the day.
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On June 07 2013 14:28 Firere345 wrote: sorry for it being over 24 hours since my last post. I went to sleep right after my last post and have spent all my free time catching up today(which wasn't much). Fortunately, tonight was my last night of having prior commitments, so I will be much more active.
To meow, who asked my opinion of Vlosk a few pages back, he's obv not my top scum read atm, but engaging shitfests isn't the towniest thing to do. As for my current reads, though, Xzav is the only one who would make me really surprize dto flip scum. Umasi and Gotard don't have any defense against their accusations, so I find it hard to not be biased by thecurrent town consensus. Gut says both bad, Umasi town, Gotard maf, if only for lynching the one guy who we all should agree is mister town.
As for the jester question, the forum I used to play on was very inconsistent. The OP would only state basic roles, yet there would end up being bus drivers or phychics as flips, so I just wanted to make sure that Jest was not a role and that we wouldn't give up a day 1 loss to a jester. some firere reads. when I see three reads by confirmed scum my gut wants to believe 1 is scum. don't like choosing from this list so I may tell my gut to stfu.
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It's good logic IMO. gotard is way down my list of persons of concern for now.
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On June 08 2013 19:25 Skanjab1s wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 11:16 fferyllt wrote:On June 08 2013 10:20 Skanjab1s wrote:LoneMeow looks really bad now To add to Stimaddict's case: On June 07 2013 20:59 LoneMeow wrote:On June 07 2013 19:19 Onegu wrote: Lonemeow what is your strongest scum read at this point? I would also ask yavanna the same thing. It's not really a strong scum read at all, but right now I'd want to lynch Firere345. Doesn't say much, sheeps the current "consensus". Promises to participate more but doesn't seem to be doing so. This situation with Gotard has me worried, I can understand why people would want to lynch him but I'm having hard time convincing myself scum would dare be so brash. Lightly FoS's Firere345, to try to distance himself, but suddenly, when there is a chance to save Fire, he strangely thinks that Gotard's recent posts were more scummy than townie (which is the opposite of what I thought) and declares his read on Fire "weak" (no reason was given for this change, and Firere hadn't said anything to make himself seem less suspicious): On June 08 2013 07:10 LoneMeow wrote: Gotard's posts since the original incident make him look more scummy rather than less. And re-thinking what Firere345 actually wrote made me realize my read on him was very weak. So I think I'd rather lynch Gotard after all.
##Vote: Gotard
Basically, he does a complete 180 for little reason, when the chance that he could save Firere arose. Where was the sudden chance? What changed in the gamestate before that vote? I mean that the votes were very close, so he only needed 1 person to change vote to lynch Gotard. That is the chance. Firere was the third vote on Gotard (excluding the early votes that were taken off). It was about 10 hours after that when LoneMeow voted Gotard.
But, it was also his first post since before Firere put down his vote, so although there's a pretty big chunk of time involved, he may not have seen the potential opportunity earlier.
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Wall ahead...
I decided to do a braindump right at night action deadline because I'm a little concerned about shaking up any well thought out town night action decisions, or giving scum additional info to consider in whatever nefarious stuff they're up to.
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These are the players that I have concerns and questions about, listed more or less from most to least concerning.
LoneMeow – hasn’t really addressed the concerns that have been raised about him. Apparently ignored the numerous arguments that Gotard made little sense as scum – leaning strongly scum (12 posts)
A ton of other people have built nice cases about why LoneMeow is scum. I agree, and I'm not going to write a reiteration of all that.
Onegu – was leaning quite town, but his first post of the night phase was pretty defensive and that sounded a bit of an alarm.
On June 08 2013 17:27 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 15:41 iVLosK! wrote:On June 08 2013 13:44 Onegu wrote:On June 08 2013 13:10 Xzavier wrote: I also think gotard may not be scum even more now, because i feel like firere was pushing for a mislynch. Like trying to fuel the fire after it was already dying down?
anybody else get that vibe? Yeah I got that also, but I didnt really get a gotard being scum feeling in the first place, but I had a null feel on fire also so I dont know where that leaves me. I would like lonemeow to respond some more before placing a strong read on him. I just dont like how skan just refused to give good answers to me. I still have a scum read on umasi at this point, but mybe my bandwagon thing without good reason is just off base. Explain why you made your vote useless today by voting for someone who was never in a million years going to be lynched and failing to even try to convince others to join you. A vote is a terrible thing to waste, Toss. I put my vote on someone I thought was scum, why is that a bad thing. I am not the only one either. I wanted to check back in before the deadline but I slept. I dont think me voteing for someone who may or maynot be lynched is such a bad thing, I didnt have strong feelings on either of the two main canidates for myself to justify puting a vote on them.
^^ this is nothing like what I would have written in a similar circumstance, which is not alignment indicative, but the defensive "why is that a bad thing", "I am not the onlhy one" "I don't think blah blah is such a bad things" etc just really seems defensive, and it stands out against his other posts.
Yavanna – leaning scum for reasons I’ve already mentioned, and I agree with SpicyDinosaur’s observations as well. It’s somewhat softened by iV’s counter argument. Disappeared, no vote down. to be replaced?
Umasi – I'm retracting my very slight lean-town. It could be a personality thing – continuing to defend positions that he’s apparently abandoned, but he’s done that on first iV and now Gotard. SpicyDinosaur’s night-talk case is relevant. I’m not going to rewrite it.
StimAddict – Super enthusiastic. Tunneling LoneMeow. Focused on potential modkills. Cheerleading? There was a ton of cheerleading from nearly everyone after the card flip, so I’m mostly discounting it as a mafia culture thing for the experienced players and an enthusiasm thing for the new players. StimAddict’s level of enthusiasm stood out a little, though, as did his huge level of concern about lurker/non-voter modkills. IOw his vote was parked someplace useless, which I don’t mind too much given when he caught up and his bigger concern than which of the 2 main bandwagons was the lynchee was to plead with apparently non-present players to vote before deadline.
His after nightfall posts have been better, and I especially liked his post with a suggestion for a vig if we have one.
I have some minor issues with a few other players. Xzav could be a lot more experienced than he appears. I’ve played forum mafia with a few IRL mafia players who made awesome transitions, and one of them is a scary scum player. He was pretty braggadocio and know-it-all in his early games. xZav grabbed onto me as a font of wisdom about some things, but appeared to discount my concerns that the Gotard lynch was a bad idea.
I’m also a little concerned that he (and a couple others) showed no paranoia to speak of about me. I even posted an intentional clanger or two and got hardly a murmur from anyone. That lack raised my neck hairs a tad.
iV’s relative slowness to join the Firere bandwagon also bothers me a little now that we’ve seen the flip. But, people excel at different parts of the game, so it’s not something I’d pursue without more reasons further along in the game. That's really the only thing he's done that I could pick a nit with, so I should probably stfu.
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So, anyway, I'd like to see those first 5 sorted on day 2, and hopefully several moved in a townward direction. I was reluctant to neg 5 players and minor-nit-pick two more, but I also don't want those thoughts unspoken just in case day 1 is it for me.
I agree that most of the suspicion should go to LoneMeow next.
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On June 09 2013 09:16 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2013 08:59 fferyllt wrote: I’m also a little concerned that he (and a couple others) showed no paranoia to speak of about me. I even posted an intentional clanger or two and got hardly a murmur from anyone. That lack raised my neck hairs a tad.
Not sure why you are bringing this up. If people think you are town then why try to intentionally mess with that perception? It serves no town purpose whatsoever. We are in the scum hunting business so no need to hound on you if people believe you are town. Consider it a reaction test.
The level of town-read I've gotten so early in this game is unusual. I often get to the point of near-universal town read eventually, but I have to work at it, especially with players who don't know my style of play.
In a newbie game, it seems particularly odd, though I realize that a lot of the newbies in this game are not new to mafia at all.
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Also, I should say that I would expect town players to jump on one of the comments I made earlier in the game while scum, knowing I'm town might not even notice. Onego jumped on it. I really wish he hadn't made that one highly defensive post. I'm probably making too much of the post but...brain dump.
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heh. I thought there might be a bit more end-of-night activity than this.
On the bright side, at least one of us has a pretty good chance of being around for day 2.
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Re the bandwagons, I would half expect the remaining scum to be spread out, not on the same bandwagon.
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