Yeah, stats in mafia are a very interesting thing, for reasons you mention and others. I've played 40 (!) games here and been lynched once as town and twice as mafia.

I've only been lynched once, and it was right at the end of LX. Does that mean I'm a good player too?

WaveofShadow

Canada31495 Posts

April 11 2013 17:00 GMT

#1861

On April 12 2013 01:55 marvellosity wrote:
Just as an arbitrary example for this game, if we take 1500 ELO to be 'starting' ELO with 2500 being totally exceptional and 500 being very poor, you might see something like the following (apologise in advance for over/under estimating players, more for shits and giggles)

1. iamperfection; town ELO 2000 mafia ELO 1000
2. WaveofShadow; town ELO 1500 mafia ELO 1500
3. Ace; town ELO 2100 mafia ELO 2500
4. prplhz; town ELO 1600 mafia ELO 1200
5. DarthPunk; town ELO 2000 mafia ELO 2000
6. Oatsmaster; town ELO 1400 mafia ELO 1300
7. Tunkeg; town ELO 1500 mafia ELO 1500
8. Palmar; town ELO 2400 mafia ELO 2000
9. marvellosity; town ELO 2100 mafia ELO 2400
10. Axlegreaser; town ELO 1300 mafia ELO 1300
11. raynpelinkeet; town ELO 1600 mafia ELO 1600
12. sciberbia; town ELO 2100 mafia ELO 1700

Average strength of mafia team: 4100/3 = 1366.6
Average strength of town team: 17400/9 = 1933.3

Best theoretical mafia team: 6900/3 = 2300
Worst theoretical town team: 15000/9 = 1666.6

Average town ELO: 21600/12 = 1800
Average mafia ELO: 20000/12 = 1666.6

I'm not sure what the point of doing something like this is with no real mathematical way of estimating skill.

WaveofShadow

Canada31495 Posts

April 11 2013 17:04 GMT

#1864

On April 12 2013 02:00 marvellosity wrote:

Show nested quote +

Well the thing is, it becomes much less arbitrary if I go back many games and factor in results of each game, because ELO by its nature is self-correcting.

So if I make a guess that's originally too high, if they lose games then their rating would fall quite quickly.

Yes but the point I'm making is, there is no REAL mathematical way of estimating skill like this. Any numbers you come up with or what a win or loss does to this arbitrary number is still just that, arbitrary.

As a player plays more and more games in a team setting, elo becomes more accurate supposedly, but with a sample size like TL Mafia, there is absolutely no way a skill rating like elo would come close to being an accurate representation. There are WAY too many mitigating factors such as the hosts, style of game (mini/normal/themed/whatever), roles available, who is playing in said game, etc. Theoretically this would matter less if people could play hundreds of games but that doesn't happen here.

WaveofShadow

Canada31495 Posts

April 11 2013 17:08 GMT

#1870

I think the only thing I didn't get about the hammer was this: (as it was my first Instant Majority Lynch game)

On April 11 2013 09:03 WaveofShadow wrote:

Show nested quote +

Yeah my issue was as I said prp's thought processes were more or less exactly what I was thinking about you at the time; imo real hard to do something like that as scum.
I figured you not hammering me would be because you'd be worried about how it would look bad rather than just go balls out for the mislynch but I guess not hammering (as can be seen in the scum QT) is just considered bad scum play.

WaveofShadow

Canada31495 Posts

April 11 2013 18:44 GMT

#1895

On April 12 2013 03:42 marvellosity wrote:
Can't argue with 100% as mafia. Teach me!

The sheer number of stats there are like your 1-6 town record would make ratings quite amusing.

I like that I'd be higher on that elo scale than scib just because I got carried to more wins and caused fewer losses.

+ Show Spoiler +

Not really.
+ Show Spoiler +

But kinda really.