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On May 04 2013 08:53 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2013 08:47 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I have a strong townread on Yamato. He also brought up the idea of BC being 3rd party survivor when reading through the case. Seems like he actually thought it through and evaluated it.
That he randomly started pushing BC after Ace flipped 3P is concerning though. I haven't seen his thought process behind it. Ace was clearly 3p from an early stage in my books (called him on it like n1 or d2) I figured he was survivor though. Also you have seen the thought process of Palmar and I, we more or less narrowed it to 3 people. One of which (hopeless) I think you can easily understand.
Yes, but don't forget Stutters (which you put as null) and TRN (whilst masoning Palmar is ballsy there's something off about a bunch of his posts to me). Getmoript has also played an awful game. How certain are we that the modconfirmed thing is truly modconfirmed?
Read both Yamato and Giggles filter. One reads far more prominently townie to me. However I will admit I have had a huge scum read of yamato most of the game to the point I don't think I can seperate myself from it. However thread sentiment / agreement from most major players everyone can agree on were town before they flipped had ace down as likely 3p.
I'll reread both filters tomorrow. It's true that everyone had Ace down as 3P, but that wasn't the thing that concerned me. The thing that did concern me was how Yamato changed reads from putting you as 3P to scum when it was incredibly likely that Ace would flip 3P and he knew that, so why did it change?
You do raise the point of him pushing me as 3p survivor. Why would Town care which 3p is which? Town has to eliminate the player if they think said player is not town / playing against town win con. As such figuring out which potential 3p is what doesn't matter if they are likely shooting town. Only reason I can see someone caring which 3p someone is is if they are mafia hoping to get someone with night protection lynched to make sure a shot doesn't get blocked.
It matters because Survivor can win with town so a survivor doesn't need to be eliminated. A SP/SK does need to be eliminated as it can't win with town. There's no reason to lynch survivor, there is a good reason to lynch SP/SK.
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On May 04 2013 09:03 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2013 09:00 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On May 04 2013 08:53 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 04 2013 08:47 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I have a strong townread on Yamato. He also brought up the idea of BC being 3rd party survivor when reading through the case. Seems like he actually thought it through and evaluated it.
That he randomly started pushing BC after Ace flipped 3P is concerning though. I haven't seen his thought process behind it. Ace was clearly 3p from an early stage in my books (called him on it like n1 or d2) I figured he was survivor though. Also you have seen the thought process of Palmar and I, we more or less narrowed it to 3 people. One of which (hopeless) I think you can easily understand. Yes, but don't forget Stutters (which you put as null) and TRN (whilst masoning Palmar is ballsy there's something off about a bunch of his posts to me). Getmoript has also played an awful game. How certain are we that the modconfirmed thing is truly modconfirmed? Read both Yamato and Giggles filter. One reads far more prominently townie to me. However I will admit I have had a huge scum read of yamato most of the game to the point I don't think I can seperate myself from it. However thread sentiment / agreement from most major players everyone can agree on were town before they flipped had ace down as likely 3p. I'll reread both filters tomorrow. It's true that everyone had Ace down as 3P, but that wasn't the thing that concerned me. The thing that did concern me was how Yamato changed reads from putting you as 3P to scum when it was incredibly likely that Ace would flip 3P and he knew that, so why did it change? You do raise the point of him pushing me as 3p survivor. Why would Town care which 3p is which? Town has to eliminate the player if they think said player is not town / playing against town win con. As such figuring out which potential 3p is what doesn't matter if they are likely shooting town. Only reason I can see someone caring which 3p someone is is if they are mafia hoping to get someone with night protection lynched to make sure a shot doesn't get blocked. It matters because Survivor can win with town so a survivor doesn't need to be eliminated. A SP/SK does need to be eliminated as it can't win with town. There's no reason to lynch survivor, there is a good reason to lynch SP/SK. I honestly cant see gemoript as scum. Marv would have no reason to have a seperate qt with geript if they were scum. They could easily interact via a scum qt just fine.
Fair enough.
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Is there anyone that still thinks Hopeless is town?
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On May 04 2013 09:19 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2013 09:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Is there anyone that still thinks Hopeless is town? 
I'm guessing this is a scumclaim?
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If town JK and scum JK jailed Palmar/BC, they're both very likely to be town. There's no reason for scum to jail themselves on N1 given that the only hit against them that could come would be from a SK. It's much much much more likely that scum would use their JK offensively. If they didn't to WIFOM with town, then why was that never used? When you decide to fakeclaim it has to be for a reason, but neither Palmar nor BC used this in their defense. Therefore I find it unlikely that it was faked, which would clear the both of them.
Additionally, it's likely one of them got shot unless you believe scum doublestacked Vivax, which I have a very hard time seeing to be the case. That, or they hit Ace, but I'd think scum would try to get Ace lynched for town cred in that scenario. The only one who's pushed for Ace's lynch until he was confirmed 3P was Yamato, and he didn't exactly get much support from anyone.
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On May 04 2013 21:50 Hopeless1der wrote:
so is the conclusion that mafia defensively jailed N2 and didnt claim?
It seems likely. First night that vigis can shoot and they had a bunch of inactive players.
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Current reads:
Strong Town
WaveOfShadow
ObviousOne
Getmoript
WaveOfShadow didn't start out too impressive but I'm confident in this read right now. Clearly seems to want to figure the game out. I already had a great feel about ObviousOne, and that's only been compounded by the fact that he got confirmed by VE. Getmoript modconfirmed for obvious reasons.
Probable Town
Palmar
Bloodyc0bbler
Yamato77
Kushm4sta
Weak Town
GiggleS
TheRavensName
Palmar and BC have been talked about enough. I feel fucking awful that I made a long as fuck case on someone I now believe to be town, but on the other hand I'm glad those two finally stepped their game up. If they lead us into a bunch of mislynches in a row you should think about lynching them because it's still possible that one of them is scum, but I just don't think they are with how it's gone down.
Yamato has felt town to me all game long, and there's a lot of things that still point towards him being town. The amount of effort he's putting in despite scum being down so much and the fact that he's pushed Hopeless (though this should be reconsidered if Hopeless flips green) so hard and well make me feel fairly comfortable with him. Please don't lynch him unless he does something truly dumb.
Kush has done a few things I'd consider to be too dumb to be scum. He's been very impulsive and if he was scum I'd think he'd have slipped up by now.
GiggleS hasn't said much, but most of what he's said does appear to come from a town mindset. I don't think he's scum, but it's possible.
TRN as Palmar's already stated is probably town for masoning him. I think there's a big chance that scum shot at Palmar on N1, and it wouldn't make sense for scum to both NK and mason him. Even if this wasn't the case, masoning Palmar is a big risk for an inexperienced scum player. Nonetheless, there are things in his filter that worry me. Suggest a closer look at him.
Null
Stutters695
Bill Murray
Sharrant
Haven't taken the time to look into BM and Sharrant yet. You guys seem to be fairly certain they're town though so I'll take your words for that. I do not like Sharrant's comeback though. A few of his questions as Yamato pointed out seemed to point towards a scum agenda. Another player you'd want to take a look at.
Scum
Hopeless1der
Enough has been said about him. Just kill him already unless he gives you a really good reason not to.
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Lazy hosts are lazy.
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Not surprised OO died. Shame our JK didn't protect him. I didn't get RBed either, who did?
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Actually, there's no need for that info afaik. Let's kill Hopeless and be done with it.
If he flips green, I suggest we leave Palmar/BC open for when we have one mislynch left and kill them both then. Honestly, we should solve this game if they're both town before then.
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That makes no sense, there was like 0% chance you'd get hit. wtf JK
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Hopeless, is there anything you still want to say this cycle? If you are in fact town it'll be nice to have your updated reads. Anything new since your last read post?
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On May 05 2013 02:16 GiygaS wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2013 02:04 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
That makes no sense, there was like 0% chance you'd get hit. wtf JK It sort of does, BC and Palmar are getting in to the game and are starting to analyse. That must be scary for the mafia.
I don't think they can win unless BC/Palmar get lynched though, presuming they're both town.
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On May 05 2013 02:20 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2013 02:04 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
That makes no sense, there was like 0% chance you'd get hit. wtf JK keep in mind we are assuming the jk is town and not a second mafia one.
Two scum JK's don't make sense though, because then where did the second hit go on the day Vivax died?
I just won't believe scum doublestacks Vivax on N1, especially when they have two roleblockers to block people that they suspect are blue.
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On May 05 2013 02:28 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2013 02:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On May 05 2013 02:20 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 05 2013 02:04 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
That makes no sense, there was like 0% chance you'd get hit. wtf JK keep in mind we are assuming the jk is town and not a second mafia one. Two scum JK's don't make sense though, because then where did the second hit go on the day Vivax died? I just won't believe scum doublestacks Vivax on N1, especially when they have two roleblockers to block people that they suspect are blue. honestly second hit could have been fired at ace and he never claimed it. I wouldnt as third party. It would also explain his constant roleblocking. as town following thread sentiment i would have rb'd people i thought were going to get shot, not someone who i thought was third party every night.
In that case, all town has is 2 cops, a paranoid cop and two masoners against a scumteam with at least 2 JK's, a vigilante and a framer. Roleswise that seems pretty damn scum favoured. Just based on balance alone I'd say it's more likely both town and scum have one each.
My original thought was that if scum shot Ace, they'd simply claim to have a guilty check on Ace (3rd party shows up as scum) and get the free towncred as well as make sure scum doesn't get lynched that day. Could've worked on both days that scum got lynched. However, I forgot that they could think that they shot a veteran too, so it would be a risk.
Thirdly, I don't think they would perma jail Ace if they found out he was third party. Scum was in a bad position. Letting Ace free for one night would make town focus on him again and divert attention away from scumhunting.
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If a Veteran is shot and loses his night life, is he informed?
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On May 05 2013 02:37 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2013 02:35 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On May 05 2013 02:28 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 05 2013 02:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On May 05 2013 02:20 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 05 2013 02:04 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
That makes no sense, there was like 0% chance you'd get hit. wtf JK keep in mind we are assuming the jk is town and not a second mafia one. Two scum JK's don't make sense though, because then where did the second hit go on the day Vivax died? I just won't believe scum doublestacks Vivax on N1, especially when they have two roleblockers to block people that they suspect are blue. honestly second hit could have been fired at ace and he never claimed it. I wouldnt as third party. It would also explain his constant roleblocking. as town following thread sentiment i would have rb'd people i thought were going to get shot, not someone who i thought was third party every night. In that case, all town has is 2 cops, a paranoid cop and two masoners against a scumteam with at least 2 JK's, a vigilante and a framer. Roleswise that seems pretty damn scum favoured. Just based on balance alone I'd say it's more likely both town and scum have one each. My original thought was that if scum shot Ace, they'd simply claim to have a guilty check on Ace (3rd party shows up as scum) and get the free towncred as well as make sure scum doesn't get lynched that day. Could've worked on both days that scum got lynched. However, I forgot that they could think that they shot a veteran too, so it would be a risk. Thirdly, I don't think they would perma jail Ace if they found out he was third party. Scum was in a bad position. Letting Ace free for one night would make town focus on him again and divert attention away from scumhunting. would it make him focus on town though? he was raping the scum team. I agree that the jk could be town but i dont see why a townie would rb last night of all people. when you have confirmed town you could protect. i do find it likely that mafia could have shot him n1 though. i think doublestack on vivax just so unlikely.
Because town was far ahead. It'd be likely that Ace would target obvious townies because as 3rd party you don't want one party to get massively ahead. It'd serve his wincon better to aim for town. As town jk you know 100% certain that blocking Ace stops a kill that's probably aimed at town. I don't know why you wouldn't instantly go for that.
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On May 05 2013 02:43 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Also it is scummy as hell for yamato to try to get the jk to publically claim and risking getting shot.
I have something I want to point out about that but I want to see if Yamato points it out first.
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On May 05 2013 02:45 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2013 02:42 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On May 05 2013 02:37 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 05 2013 02:35 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On May 05 2013 02:28 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 05 2013 02:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On May 05 2013 02:20 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 05 2013 02:04 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
That makes no sense, there was like 0% chance you'd get hit. wtf JK keep in mind we are assuming the jk is town and not a second mafia one. Two scum JK's don't make sense though, because then where did the second hit go on the day Vivax died? I just won't believe scum doublestacks Vivax on N1, especially when they have two roleblockers to block people that they suspect are blue. honestly second hit could have been fired at ace and he never claimed it. I wouldnt as third party. It would also explain his constant roleblocking. as town following thread sentiment i would have rb'd people i thought were going to get shot, not someone who i thought was third party every night. In that case, all town has is 2 cops, a paranoid cop and two masoners against a scumteam with at least 2 JK's, a vigilante and a framer. Roleswise that seems pretty damn scum favoured. Just based on balance alone I'd say it's more likely both town and scum have one each. My original thought was that if scum shot Ace, they'd simply claim to have a guilty check on Ace (3rd party shows up as scum) and get the free towncred as well as make sure scum doesn't get lynched that day. Could've worked on both days that scum got lynched. However, I forgot that they could think that they shot a veteran too, so it would be a risk. Thirdly, I don't think they would perma jail Ace if they found out he was third party. Scum was in a bad position. Letting Ace free for one night would make town focus on him again and divert attention away from scumhunting. would it make him focus on town though? he was raping the scum team. I agree that the jk could be town but i dont see why a townie would rb last night of all people. when you have confirmed town you could protect. i do find it likely that mafia could have shot him n1 though. i think doublestack on vivax just so unlikely. Because town was far ahead. It'd be likely that Ace would target obvious townies because as 3rd party you don't want one party to get massively ahead. It'd serve his wincon better to aim for town. As town jk you know 100% certain that blocking Ace stops a kill that's probably aimed at town. I don't know why you wouldn't instantly go for that. primarily because off one nights worth of deaths its still really shaky to believe it was sk/sp shot instead of mafia vig or town vig at that point. It comes down to lack of info. id want ace unblocked at least once to confirm the read as poisoner. and ace would obviously shoot at town at night while aiming for mafia during day to avoid the noose.
It's a decent point, but this goes for both town and scum JK's. Both of them want to find out if Ace is 3rd party, so that on its own isn't alignment indicative.
Ace would do just enough scumhunting to not get lynched. Once it got down to 14-3 or something like that, he really wouldn't want to find any scum, just appear as if he's finding scum.
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EPT
