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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
On March 29 2013 00:48 marvellosity wrote: Correct/good analysis is super-fucking easy as mafia, sweetie. Correct analysis obviously is, good analysis not so much and no matter what, good analysis should just about never be held against people. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
It's not the fact that he is potentially correct with the analysis, nor is it about whether the analysis in question is good. You're misrepresenting/not getting what people are getting at with this. Considering the post is about you, you should ask yourself why *you* like it, but so many other players seem to have a problem with it. That's my little thought exercise for you ^_^ | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
On March 28 2013 23:48 Acrofales wrote: That's quite the frustration there. When I look at the votes I see things that I thought were weird. I point them out. You answer. Why the angst? Mainly because i thought i expressed my thoughts on D1 when i was doing this stuff clearly enough. Guess not. And because i already answered the same questions to Hapa a page or so ago. Also, I remember your OO case and you explicitly asked me about it. I admit that it was long and I was busy at work, so I didn't give it the attention it deserved at the time. Mainly because my own read on him at the time was null with some town tells. Since then I've been rereading him. Do you still think he's scum? OO gets an A for effort, but it seems misdirected. He spends a long time analysing trivialities. I'm still falling on the side of misguided townie effort, but I agree with you that some of the words he uses seem weird from a town mindset, so I am not fully convinced in my read. Why do you think he's scum? I do. I don't like his N! posts, because from what i can tell everything is based on that sinani is scum. If sinani is in fact town the whole big effort is worth nothing or even misleading. The only relevant question there is "is sinani a lynch candidate tomorrow?" and i think the answer is yes, unless he town tells. Don't get me wrong, of course the people who voted for Nisani should be analyzed, but not only them. OO seems to be trying to direct the attention to only those people, which i don't think is the right way to analyze D1 voting behaviour. As for your question: if scum thinks they can justify switching wagons, and the wagon is gaining speed fast, then sure, why not switch? As for Keirathi not being confirmed: you're right, but I am choosing to believe he's town. If he's scum then this point is clearly moot, but looking over Cora's filter in particular gives me quite a lot of confidence that they're town. Actually you are right. And i am too choosing to believe Keir is town at the moment. But anyone choosing to believe someone is town does not make them town. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
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InsertSmurfHere
288 Posts
On March 29 2013 00:46 marvellosity wrote: The issue being, of course, that he's never played with Dandel right from the get go, but attempted to make a meta case based on this period of time without checking this phase of the game in Dandel's town games. In other words he's making a meta case on Dandel's opening play, having never seen Dandel's opening play as town. It's at the very best extremely sloppy. While I admit, not looking at a Dandel town game from the beginning was an oversight, what I did do was look at his scum game that I hadn't looked at before, and drew comparisons to what I believed to be unique information, given my former impression of his town play in games. I normally don't even do that, I simply draw from past personal experience, as many of you know. Me looking at someone's meta outside of a game I wasn't involved in is rare. As I said before, you can fault me for not looking at his other town games. I had little idea that he was such a blatant troll as either alignment early on in the game. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
On March 29 2013 00:55 marvellosity wrote: See my last post. It's not the fact that he is potentially correct with the analysis, nor is it about whether the analysis in question is good. You're misrepresenting/not getting what people are getting at with this. Considering the post is about you, you should ask yourself why *you* like it, but so many other players seem to have a problem with it. That's my little thought exercise for you ^_^ Because the only person who has read as much into my posts as InsertSmurfHere is me. I don't care that he was right when no one else was as long as he was right for the right reasons. Would you really have felt better about InsertSmurfHere if he had just jumped on me after Haparathi and Keihauli did? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On March 29 2013 00:53 prplhz wrote: Correct analysis obviously is, good analysis not so much and no matter what, good analysis should just about never be held against people. The argument myself and others are making is that yamatos defense of you is seemingly correct but not "good" due to how littl you had done at that point in the game. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
On March 29 2013 01:04 Hapahauli wrote: The argument myself and others are making is that yamatos defense of you is seemingly correct but not "good" due to how littl you had done at that point in the game. I'm saying that the reason he was so adamant is because: He was right and for the right reasons. He takes a certain pride in being correct about me specifically. That's perfectly alright for me. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 29 2013 01:01 prplhz wrote: Because the only person who has read as much into my posts as InsertSmurfHere is me. I don't care that he was right when no one else was as long as he was right for the right reasons. Would you really have felt better about InsertSmurfHere if he had just jumped on me after Haparathi and Keihauli did? You said yourself that you think I pride myself on reading you, correct? I was interested in seeing how the prplhz case that Hapa and Kei threw together would pan out, and indeed how I read that entire portion of the game was the main reason I brought up Keirathi as a scumread towards the end of Day 1. To recap how *I* felt about you, I was extremely unsure of your alignment during the phase of the game that Hapa & Kei were attacking you, and I only felt better about you not being mafia in the second half of day 2 when you came back to the thread and actually conversed reasonably extensively with people. Therefore I read Smurf's defence of you as way too over-committed when my own read on you is so shakey. That's *my* perspective. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On March 28 2013 11:49 Hapahauli wrote: @ SnB Can you describe to me how you go from "ACRO = SCUM"... ... to oh hey I'll vote the guy that he's pushing... no worries! so i haven't gotten up to date with the thread yet but i thought i would answer this part there's a few things. (1) when I made that post criticizing acro, I wanted to draw people's attentions to the post that I quoted and express that I thought it looked bad. If I had a strong overall scum read on acro, that would be a singularly bad way of letting the thread know about it. (2) Even if I did have a strong scum read on acro, that doesn't make his arguments invalid. I could be wrong, and statistically probably I am; he could be bussing; etcetera. Like, if I really thought acro was scum I should pay extra attention to his arguments in order to analyze his point of view in them. (3) You're kind of misrepresenting the situation with the voting as well. Acro's participation in the nisani push had little to do with my decision to vote for him. I explained my reasons in the post you quoted - the only realistic lynch options were sinani and nisani; I was kind of persuaded by Marv that sinani was more likely to be town than sinani, and I didn't want a no lynch, so I voted for sinani. so yeah | ||
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Acrofales
Spain17992 Posts
On March 29 2013 01:01 prplhz wrote: Because the only person who has read as much into my posts as InsertSmurfHere is me. I don't care that he was right when no one else was as long as he was right for the right reasons. Would you really have felt better about InsertSmurfHere if he had just jumped on me after Haparathi and Keihauli did? The problem I have is this: I look at the information I had available to me at the time and my read on you, which was null leaning to scummy. I know that you tend to look scummy to me on D1, so I didn't automatically want to lynch you, but I definitely didn't have a town read on you. Other people seemed to reach similar conclusions, ranging on the scum to null side of the scumometer. In comes Yamato, champion of the underdefended to give you a town read based on meta. I still don't know whether he is right or wrong, you are soft-claiming town here and that Yamato read you completely accurately. That is great. Lets analyse both cases: prplhz is town and Yamato is correct. However, is Yamato the kind of player perspicacious enough to correctly read you using meta alone, or is he using the prior knowledge, given by his scum role PM to "guide" his correct meta read and cherry pick the gems out of the rough? Well, on the one hand we have Hapa, Keirathi, myself and probably some other people all having doubts about prplhz. On the other we have Yamato. So is Yamato better at reading you than Hapa, Keir and most everybody else? I don't think I believe that (you can call it hubris if you like, but I call it common sense) other case: prplhz is scum and Yamato is wrong. In this case, Yamato made a giant error as town and was adamantly defending you based on meta. This is the least likely scenario out of all 4 possible combinations, so lets ignore it. Yamato being scum and cherry picking your meta to give you a town read and you now agreeing with him is plausible. So regardless of prplhz's actual alginment, the most likely explanation for yamato's behaviour is that he is scum. And him picking the right bits out of your meta is guided by FIRST assigning you to be town and THEN looking at your meta, which makes a case a LOT easier to make. For the record, I have a slight town read on prplhz based on reading his defense and late D1 activity. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
If Yamato had approached the situation saying he was "leaning town" on prplhz, that would make much more sense to me. Instead, he didn't have a shred of doubt that you were town due to meta points with extremely limited in-game context. Honestly, if this was just an isolated thing in an otherwise spammy/townie filter, I think is defense of you is independently excusable. However, this is yet another item on the list of scummy things that Yamato has done this game. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On March 29 2013 01:21 strongandbig wrote: so i haven't gotten up to date with the thread yet but i thought i would answer this part there's a few things. (1) when I made that post criticizing acro, I wanted to draw people's attentions to the post that I quoted and express that I thought it looked bad. If I had a strong overall scum read on acro, that would be a singularly bad way of letting the thread know about it. (2) Even if I did have a strong scum read on acro, that doesn't make his arguments invalid. I could be wrong, and statistically probably I am; he could be bussing; etcetera. Like, if I really thought acro was scum I should pay extra attention to his arguments in order to analyze his point of view in them. (3) You're kind of misrepresenting the situation with the voting as well. Acro's participation in the nisani push had little to do with my decision to vote for him. I explained my reasons in the post you quoted - the only realistic lynch options were sinani and nisani; I was kind of persuaded by Marv that sinani was more likely to be town than sinani, and I didn't want a no lynch, so I voted for sinani. so yeah I was more looking to fill in the blanks, since you've been rather lurky and non-contributory of late. What's your current stance on Acro? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain17992 Posts
On March 29 2013 01:05 prplhz wrote: I'm saying that the reason he was so adamant is because: He was right and for the right reasons. He takes a certain pride in being correct about me specifically. That's perfectly alright for me. Why does yamato have such an accurate read on you specifically? Has he played with you a more than average amount? Was he the first to catch you as scum and defend you as town in previous games? Note: I don't know the answers, I presume you can help you. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain17992 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 29 2013 01:25 Hapahauli wrote: The key problem with Yamato's defense is that him defending you as if he was 100% certain makes very little sense with a town mentality. Townies have no information. They are paranoid. They doubt. They are unsure. Stepping up and defending someone in the circumstances that Yamato did (early in the game, prplhz having very little filter) goes against a traditional townie mindset. If Yamato had approached the situation saying he was "leaning town" on prplhz, that would make much more sense to me. Instead, he didn't have a shred of doubt that you were town due to meta points with extremely limited in-game context. Honestly, if this was just an isolated thing in an otherwise spammy/townie filter, I think is defense of you is independently excusable. However, this is yet another item on the list of scummy things that Yamato has done this game. Right. I just went and browsed Smurf's filter, and found 15 distinct posts (maybe I missed a couple) which were solely about defending prplhz, often utilising quotes and examples from previous games. Below I give the quotes/reasons where Smurf talks about his main scumread for most of the day: On March 27 2013 16:09 InsertSmurfHere wrote: Anyway, I'm going to bed. When I wake up tomorrow, I'm going to figure out who out of the people I suspect is actually the best lynch. I will say, I like the Nisani case. I said it before, dude is just lurking while we argue about everyone else. On March 28 2013 03:28 InsertSmurfHere wrote: So Hapa, what do you think about Nisani? I have about an hour, so let's make this quick. On March 28 2013 03:58 InsertSmurfHere wrote: Also, you're about the only one here that I feel I can convince on Nisani that isn't already on the idea. Oats isn't going to listen to me. Marv is pursuing Nisani. Prplhz has expressed interest. Why not lynch Nisani? What makes you think he's town? On March 28 2013 04:07 InsertSmurfHere wrote: Sinani is in my lurker-null category. But he's less of a good lynch than Nisani, simply because he came in with a case pushing Nisani when you were koo-koo for prpl-puffs. Coulda been really easy to just sheep you and start assailing me/prplhz at that time, but he didn't. As far as I can see, Nisani is his absolute #1 candidate because he is "lurking" and he "likes the case" The effort he put into thinking about his primary scumread is disproportionately small when we compare the effort he put in to defending prplhz, when a bunch of other good players (Hapa, Kei, me) were quite unsure of his alignment (on my part) or thought he was mafia (on hapa/Kei's part) | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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