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On March 28 2013 11:40 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2013 07:27 marvellosity wrote:
I'm also probably off until tomorrow. Not sure when I'm going to have time to work on the game properly because I have a chess thingy tomorrow evening. There's too many people I'm leaning town on at the moment, which is partly down to the fact that 2 of my 3 orange reads have flipped/claimed. I don't understand how you have too many town reads in this game. I literally have 3 town reads I have any confidence in, and another 3 players I am willing to consider town, because I don't think they play like this as scum. That leaves you, Sinani, raynpelikoneet, prplhz, SnB, Smurf and OO in the null to scum range. I am really dying to know how you have any kind of confident town range on them.
I was somewhat town to varying degrees on Oats, you, Dandel, reyn, Hapa, prplhz, Corazon, OO
Null for whatever reason on sinani, Palmar, s&b
Orange on Kei, smurf, nisani
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On March 28 2013 21:22 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2013 17:36 ObviousOne wrote:On March 28 2013 17:26 Palmar wrote:On March 28 2013 08:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Palmar why did you agree to the Keirathi lynch pushed by your scumread marv and agreed by your other scumread me? on the off chance I was wrong. He (we, as in Palmar and I) were already wrong on Grack. It could be a fatal disease for both of us. In re-reading the thread (I'm up to p21) I'm leaning town on Rayn btw. You still leaning town on Rayn, Palmar? That's the last I remember of you mentioning him off the top of my head. I'm almost always wrong on my initial day 1 read, which is why I always revise the read before lynchtime. As for rayn, I don't think he's town. I liked his initial contributions but I feel some of the things he said since have been pretty strange. I will elaborate later. Then again, I don't think he's our number 1 scum lynch for tomorrow. I still haven't decided where I want to take that.
Yeah I saw later somewhere after p50 he was in your list of people you wanted to lynch. Was that after your re-read as you describe here?
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On March 28 2013 21:22 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2013 17:36 ObviousOne wrote:On March 28 2013 17:26 Palmar wrote:On March 28 2013 08:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Palmar why did you agree to the Keirathi lynch pushed by your scumread marv and agreed by your other scumread me? on the off chance I was wrong. He (we, as in Palmar and I) were already wrong on Grack. It could be a fatal disease for both of us. In re-reading the thread (I'm up to p21) I'm leaning town on Rayn btw. You still leaning town on Rayn, Palmar? That's the last I remember of you mentioning him off the top of my head. I'm almost always wrong on my initial day 1 read, which is why I always revise the read before lynchtime.As for rayn, I don't think he's town. I liked his initial contributions but I feel some of the things he said since have been pretty strange. I will elaborate later. Then again, I don't think he's our number 1 scum lynch for tomorrow. I still haven't decided where I want to take that.
This is my main problem with you. Earlier (when you were pushing Grack) you said you had "a copule of other targets to explore". When Grack died you were totally clueless and just threw a list of five people and didn't push any of those for lynch (no, i don't think you voting for sinani counts as pushing). From what i remember about you from games i have read you are pretty fucking confident as town, especially on D1 (when you are town). This is nowhere near your normal town play.
And your thoughts about the vigi shot are just.. meh..
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On March 28 2013 21:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2013 21:22 Palmar wrote:On March 28 2013 17:36 ObviousOne wrote:On March 28 2013 17:26 Palmar wrote:On March 28 2013 08:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Palmar why did you agree to the Keirathi lynch pushed by your scumread marv and agreed by your other scumread me? on the off chance I was wrong. He (we, as in Palmar and I) were already wrong on Grack. It could be a fatal disease for both of us. In re-reading the thread (I'm up to p21) I'm leaning town on Rayn btw. You still leaning town on Rayn, Palmar? That's the last I remember of you mentioning him off the top of my head. I'm almost always wrong on my initial day 1 read, which is why I always revise the read before lynchtime.As for rayn, I don't think he's town. I liked his initial contributions but I feel some of the things he said since have been pretty strange. I will elaborate later. Then again, I don't think he's our number 1 scum lynch for tomorrow. I still haven't decided where I want to take that. This is my main problem with you. Earlier (when you were pushing Grack) you said you had "a copule of other targets to explore". When Grack died you were totally clueless and just threw a list of five people and didn't push any of those for lynch (no, i don't think you voting for sinani counts as pushing). From what i remember about you from games i have read you are pretty fucking confident as town, especially on D1 (when you are town). This is nowhere near your normal town play. And your thoughts about the vigi shot are just.. meh..
I actually agree with this and it's the reason Palmar was in null at the end of the day and not leaning town as I'd originally had him. Palmar effectively abdicated responsibility for the Day 1 lynch and I don't like that.
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On March 28 2013 21:55 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2013 21:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 28 2013 21:22 Palmar wrote:On March 28 2013 17:36 ObviousOne wrote:On March 28 2013 17:26 Palmar wrote:On March 28 2013 08:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Palmar why did you agree to the Keirathi lynch pushed by your scumread marv and agreed by your other scumread me? on the off chance I was wrong. He (we, as in Palmar and I) were already wrong on Grack. It could be a fatal disease for both of us. In re-reading the thread (I'm up to p21) I'm leaning town on Rayn btw. You still leaning town on Rayn, Palmar? That's the last I remember of you mentioning him off the top of my head. I'm almost always wrong on my initial day 1 read, which is why I always revise the read before lynchtime.As for rayn, I don't think he's town. I liked his initial contributions but I feel some of the things he said since have been pretty strange. I will elaborate later. Then again, I don't think he's our number 1 scum lynch for tomorrow. I still haven't decided where I want to take that. This is my main problem with you. Earlier (when you were pushing Grack) you said you had "a copule of other targets to explore". When Grack died you were totally clueless and just threw a list of five people and didn't push any of those for lynch (no, i don't think you voting for sinani counts as pushing). From what i remember about you from games i have read you are pretty fucking confident as town, especially on D1 (when you are town). This is nowhere near your normal town play. And your thoughts about the vigi shot are just.. meh.. I actually agree with this and it's the reason Palmar was in null at the end of the day and not leaning town as I'd originally had him. Palmar effectively abdicated responsibility for the Day 1 lynch and I don't like that.
How does it make Palmar null and not scum?
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On March 28 2013 22:01 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2013 21:55 marvellosity wrote:On March 28 2013 21:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 28 2013 21:22 Palmar wrote:On March 28 2013 17:36 ObviousOne wrote:On March 28 2013 17:26 Palmar wrote:On March 28 2013 08:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Palmar why did you agree to the Keirathi lynch pushed by your scumread marv and agreed by your other scumread me? on the off chance I was wrong. He (we, as in Palmar and I) were already wrong on Grack. It could be a fatal disease for both of us. In re-reading the thread (I'm up to p21) I'm leaning town on Rayn btw. You still leaning town on Rayn, Palmar? That's the last I remember of you mentioning him off the top of my head. I'm almost always wrong on my initial day 1 read, which is why I always revise the read before lynchtime.As for rayn, I don't think he's town. I liked his initial contributions but I feel some of the things he said since have been pretty strange. I will elaborate later. Then again, I don't think he's our number 1 scum lynch for tomorrow. I still haven't decided where I want to take that. This is my main problem with you. Earlier (when you were pushing Grack) you said you had "a copule of other targets to explore". When Grack died you were totally clueless and just threw a list of five people and didn't push any of those for lynch (no, i don't think you voting for sinani counts as pushing). From what i remember about you from games i have read you are pretty fucking confident as town, especially on D1 (when you are town). This is nowhere near your normal town play. And your thoughts about the vigi shot are just.. meh.. I actually agree with this and it's the reason Palmar was in null at the end of the day and not leaning town as I'd originally had him. Palmar effectively abdicated responsibility for the Day 1 lynch and I don't like that. How does it make Palmar null and not scum?
Because I'd been leaning town on him previously for a couple of reasons, namely that I perceived his posts/thoughts to be sincere. So what you described balanced out the plus and minus columns.
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On March 28 2013 22:03 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2013 22:01 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 28 2013 21:55 marvellosity wrote:On March 28 2013 21:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 28 2013 21:22 Palmar wrote:On March 28 2013 17:36 ObviousOne wrote:On March 28 2013 17:26 Palmar wrote:On March 28 2013 08:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Palmar why did you agree to the Keirathi lynch pushed by your scumread marv and agreed by your other scumread me? on the off chance I was wrong. He (we, as in Palmar and I) were already wrong on Grack. It could be a fatal disease for both of us. In re-reading the thread (I'm up to p21) I'm leaning town on Rayn btw. You still leaning town on Rayn, Palmar? That's the last I remember of you mentioning him off the top of my head. I'm almost always wrong on my initial day 1 read, which is why I always revise the read before lynchtime.As for rayn, I don't think he's town. I liked his initial contributions but I feel some of the things he said since have been pretty strange. I will elaborate later. Then again, I don't think he's our number 1 scum lynch for tomorrow. I still haven't decided where I want to take that. This is my main problem with you. Earlier (when you were pushing Grack) you said you had "a copule of other targets to explore". When Grack died you were totally clueless and just threw a list of five people and didn't push any of those for lynch (no, i don't think you voting for sinani counts as pushing). From what i remember about you from games i have read you are pretty fucking confident as town, especially on D1 (when you are town). This is nowhere near your normal town play. And your thoughts about the vigi shot are just.. meh.. I actually agree with this and it's the reason Palmar was in null at the end of the day and not leaning town as I'd originally had him. Palmar effectively abdicated responsibility for the Day 1 lynch and I don't like that. How does it make Palmar null and not scum? Because I'd been leaning town on him previously for a couple of reasons, namely that I perceived his posts/thoughts to be sincere. So what you described balanced out the plus and minus columns.
Yeah, but as i said earlier. Look at Palmar's play before and after the vigi-shot. There is a quite a difference in his behaviour - most notably in his confidence (which is a town!Palmar sign (overconfidence)). To me it looks like he had a clear plan (as mafia) and Grack shot totally threw him off his game. I could understand if he had been solely tunneling Grack, but there is this post of his which indicates otherwise:
On March 26 2013 23:04 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2013 22:59 marvellosity wrote:
Palmar, how sure are you on this Grack thing? No idea yet, I think it's the best option we have right now, aside from maybe one or two other openings I will explore later in the cycle. I think we still have more than a day to form our final wagon, so there's no need to rush it. I feel pretty confident Grack's responses have not helped me paint him green, and he's posted in a manner that yells scum at me. But I've also seen people simply mess up under some pressure. So yeah, for now I'm convinced he's our best lynch target.
This is pretty easy thing to say as scum. At some point you just leave your tunnel target alone, pick some other scummy guy from the thread and start pushing him. What did you achieve? A lot of unnecessary discussion on someone who is town -> protects your scumbuddies from being under suspicion. Not only that, Grack was probably the easiest target to attack, which was proven right based on his responses to the suspicions.
If Palmar was town, he would have one or two targets ready to start looking into, but everything he did was "throw out a list of people and see what happens".
I suggest everyone to take a look at Palmar's filter and analyze his behaviour before and after the vigi-shot. And think about what it means.
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rayn, how do you view me given I basically pushed two mislynches?
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OO, you ask so many broad, and leading questions, that you make it incredibly hard to answer them. I have made it quite clear what I found scummy about Nisani's case on me and it WASN'T because it was on me, it was because at the time I saw this: there was a blatant lie, which served one single purpose: to make me look like scum.
I still have no clue what Nisani was thinking when he made the case or how he could say that my initial posts were contributions while simultaneously stating the direct contradiction of their content, but it's water under the bridge: I was clearly wrong and if I play with Nisani again I will take this into account.
The mere fact that YOU and quite a few other people agreed with me on it should indicate that I was clearly not stupid to think this way about the post, so calling it a bad OMGUS case is wrong.
As for why Nisani (and not someone else)? Because I thought he was scum. The fact that you even ask this question seems to indicate you have presupposed a scum motive for me making a case and are then asking why Acro, as scum, is making a case against Nisani of all possible targets. There is no answer, because I'm not scum. I was just wrong.
*Could I have voted for other "targets" of opportunity at the time?" --- I'm still not scum, so there are no targets of opportunity, just people I suspect are scum and people who I think are town.
*Was it a solitary tunnel? No. I think that is clear from my filter. I'll let others be the judge of whether I played a good game or not, but I don't think I was stuck in a rut where I overanalysed Nisani and never considered anybody else. But by and large, Nisani looked scummiest to me.
Also, you won't find scum by trying to ask why a lynch was pushed. You're far better off trying to figure out who had no decent reasons to be on it, but got the townie lynched anyway. People like Smurf, who jumped on halfway through with a shoddy reason. I am going to spend the rest of the day looking at the people in my null-scum list who I haven't properly analyzed yet. Quite a few of them had really dodgy reasons for hopping wagons.
Finally, can future vote tallies please be in the order of voting, rather than seemingly randomized? It's important to know who voted early, who hammered, and what votes in the middle were safe and which caused momentum swings. So here is the actual votecount:
+ Show Spoiler +
prplhz: raynpelikoneet, StrongandBig, Hapahauli, Nisani201, Keirathi
raynpelikoneet: marvellosity, cDgCorazon
marvellosity: Dandel Ion, Acrofales
ObviousOne: Hapahauli, marvellosity, Palmar, raynpelikoneet, raynpelikoneet
Grackaroni: Palmar, Hapahauli, Keirathi, ObviousOne, prplhz, raynpelikoneet
Palmar: Keirathi, Acrofales, Oatsmaster
Keirathi: Dandel Ion, marvellosity, Oatsmaster, ObviousOne, Nisani201, Palmar, raynpelikoneet, strongandbig
Dandel Ion: InsertSmurfHere
Acrofales: Nisani201
Nisani201 (13): Acrofales, Sinani206, marvellosity, Acrofales, prplhz, raynpelikoneet, cDgCorazon, InsertSmurfHere, raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Keirathi, ObviousOne, Oatsmaster, Palmar, Strongandbig, Hapahauli
Strongandbig: Oatsmaster
InsertSmurfHere (1): Dandel Ion, cDgCorazon
cDgCorazon: InsertSmurfHere
Sinani206 (1): Hapahauli, Palmar, Palmar, ObviousOne, Oatsmaster, Nisani201
Everybody after Keirathi and ObviousOne is basically just hopping on "for consolidation" and their votes should be taken with a grain of salt. The interesting votes that I feel were cast without any real motivation are prplhz, Cora, Smurf and rayn.
Out of these I find Cora's to flow the most naturally: he mentions him a few times as scummy and then decides pushing his own read is unfeasible and hops on the Nisani wagon.
Prplhz is half-on half-off the wagon the entire time: he ninja-votes, he says he doesn't see what makes Nisani scum, then says Nisani is probably scum and then says Nisani's meta is unreadable and he might be town. And none of that seems well reasoned through. It seems more like a sheep vote than anything else, which is strange, because he'd be sheeping me and he seems to think I am scum.
Smurf I have discussed already. I think he's scum, so that right there is the justification for him being on the wagon.
Rayn is also a weird vote: he mentions Nisani quite a few times in a list of people he feels are scummy, but never really does anything about it until he feels he has to consolidate (way earlier than he actually has to). He then hops onto the Keirathi wagon, once again to consolidate: this time he hops OFF the leading wagon in order to consolidate, which just increases the chance of a no-lynch. And then jumps back onto Nisani. Given both Nisani is town and Keir probable town, this feels like "as long as a townie gets lynched, I'm cool with it" votes.
Marv deserves a special mention, because he was hard on the Nisani wagon, then starts up a counterwagon on Keirathi and then hops back onto Nisani when Keirathi claims mason. But this deserves more extensive analysis... have to decide whether this was town Marv being indecisive or scum Marv screwing around with the lynch.
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Oh, and there was one other thing about Palmar I didn't like, demonstrating he didn't read the thread / can't remember his own thoughts. I don't quite know what to make of it though:
On March 27 2013 08:34 Palmar wrote:
a few more reads. Initially I was leaning slight scum on Keirathi but now I don't know what to make of it. He defended prplhz against s&b's case based on reasons I don't entirely agree with, seeing as I actually think prplhz is being much more useless than when he's playing lazy town.
But the little fact that Keirathi then proceeded to call out prplhz makes me think his defense may not have been an absolute stance, but a fluid one. It's not a huge town-tell, but it's something.
On March 28 2013 05:05 Palmar wrote:
there's plenty of time for marv to push his lynch.
I had keirathi red-ish early on but at some point I swapped my read on him. I did not note down why I did it.
It's tempting to just roll with it, as I'm pretty uncertain myself. I will be back soon to think more.
On March 28 2013 05:08 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2013 05:05 Palmar wrote:
there's plenty of time for marv to push his lynch.
I had keirathi red-ish early on but at some point I swapped my read on him. I did not note down why I did it.
It's tempting to just roll with it, as I'm pretty uncertain myself. I will be back soon to think more. I'll tell you why you did it; you did it because you thought Keirathi was defending prplhz at the start of the game, and went on to attack him later, and you found that somewhat of a towntell. An incorrect one in my opinion as Keirathi was merely attacking the bad case on prplhz.
On March 28 2013 05:23 Palmar wrote:
Just a heads up I honestly can't find the reason whatever it was that switched my keirathi read to slight town lean. So I guess if sinani isnt' happening I'm going to support keirathi over nisani dying.
Effectively he forgot his read on Kei somehow, I reminded him, but he wasn't reading the thread and so reiterated what he'd just said about forgetting. This could well just be Palmar being lazy, though. Dunno.
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On March 28 2013 22:46 Acrofales wrote:
Marv deserves a special mention, because he was hard on the Nisani wagon, then starts up a counterwagon on Keirathi and then hops back onto Nisani when Keirathi claims mason. But this deserves more extensive analysis... have to decide whether this was town Marv being indecisive or scum Marv screwing around with the lynch.
Fair dinkum, I would say that I'm pretty glad I did what I did with the Kei case in hindsight; in my opinion there's a lot of information to be gained from the Kei push.
Certainly I think the town is in a better position for having that wagon come and go late on Day 1. Obviously I'm not claiming this absolves me or anything, but the very analysis you just made on voting was made possible by my Keir push.
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On March 28 2013 22:18 marvellosity wrote:
rayn, how do you view me given I basically pushed two mislynches?
First of all we can't be sure if Keirathi actually is town. I don't think you are mafia at the moment. I have agreed with a good portion of your reads as i have made the same observations myself. On top of that you are the only one who is willing to discuss my suspicions and actually pays attention to them. So atm i have no reason to think you are mafia. I don't think Nisani flipping green proves much at this point in a way or another.
Acro:
Rayn is also a weird vote: he mentions Nisani quite a few times in a list of people he feels are scummy, but never really does anything about it until he feels he has to consolidate (way earlier than he actually has to). He then hops onto the Keirathi wagon, once again to consolidate: this time he hops OFF the leading wagon in order to consolidate, which just increases the chance of a no-lynch. And then jumps back onto Nisani. Given both Nisani is town and Keir probable town, this feels like "as long as a townie gets lynched, I'm cool with it" votes.
I had a case on OO. Which noone besides marv was even willing to take a look at regardless of me pushing the case. Oats was not going to happen. When prplhz started contributing i read him as town. Smurf made sense in the other half of the cycle. Nisani was being wishy washy about everything and had a couple of very strange town reads and was not contributing at all. I thought sinani lynch was pushed by mafia (as i explained). I don't know where do you except me to put my vote on that situation, when the candidates are Nisani/prplhz/sinani?
As for Keirathi. I think marv's case on him made sense and already half of the players voting for Nisani had swapped to Keir. So yeah, i switched because i agreed to marv's case on him and because i thought there was no way Nisani lynch was going to happen. I thought there was only 15minutes left in the phase, not 1h 15min.
And why wouldn't i hop back on Nisani when Keir claimed? I don't even know what you are trying to point out there. That i should have by some strange reason voted sinani after Keir/Cora claim?
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Tomorrow's lynch is between yam and snb.
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Also Acro. If i was scum why wouldn't i just stay on Nisani in the first place? What's the point of voteswitching as i am in your scenario switching from a townie to another townie? Also why do you even bring that up because it's not even confirmed that Keirathi is town.
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Marv, given what Cora and Keir have said about masons, why is keir scum and cora town?
I would think its the other way around if in fact they were not both town.
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On March 28 2013 23:36 Oatsmaster wrote:
Marv, given what Cora and Keir have said about masons, why is keir scum and cora town?
I would think its the other way around if in fact they were not both town.
Those were my reads before the stuff at the end of Day 1 went down, like Keirathi's claim, Nisani's flip, etc.
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Would you be in favor of lynching Palmar tmr?
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That's quite the frustration there. When I look at the votes I see things that I thought were weird. I point them out. You answer. Why the angst?
Also, I remember your OO case and you explicitly asked me about it. I admit that it was long and I was busy at work, so I didn't give it the attention it deserved at the time. Mainly because my own read on him at the time was null with some town tells. Since then I've been rereading him. Do you still think he's scum?
OO gets an A for effort, but it seems misdirected. He spends a long time analysing trivialities. I'm still falling on the side of misguided townie effort, but I agree with you that some of the words he uses seem weird from a town mindset, so I am not fully convinced in my read. Why do you think he's scum?
As for your question: if scum thinks they can justify switching wagons, and the wagon is gaining speed fast, then sure, why not switch? As for Keirathi not being confirmed: you're right, but I am choosing to believe he's town. If he's scum then this point is clearly moot, but looking over Cora's filter in particular gives me quite a lot of confidence that they're town.
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On March 28 2013 23:45 Oatsmaster wrote:
Would you be in favor of lynching Palmar tmr?
At the moment no, I think there are better targets.
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On March 28 2013 18:36 ObviousOne wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2013 23:28 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 27 2013 23:21 Palmar wrote:
I can fight my own battles marv.
Oats, you're smarter than this. The shot was a scumshot, any townie would claim it by now. I doubt we have a multi-shot day-vig that also happens to be retarded enough to shoot early day 1.
So assume I'm scum, and explain to me the thought process behind the shot. I could've probably ridden the Grack lynch out the day as scum, and all this does is cast doubt on me as someone got shot based on an early read by me.
So the only logical scenario where I'm scum is that some random townie decided to test my read and proceed to not claim the shot.
Dudes are stupid in mafia, shit happens. If you were a JOAT with a dayvig and you wanted to kill Grack. (I have extra info ^_^)WHY IN THE WHOLE WIDE WORLD WOULD YOU CLAIM?? If you are scum with anonymous dayvig, WHY WOULD YOU SHOOT LYNCHBAIT INSTEAD OF MARV. WHAT THE FUCK PALMAR. WHY IS YOUR DEFENSE HINGING ON THE GRACK SHOT. You have extra info... Please share.
Can you share this info? If you can't why even tell us you have it. If you can, why haven't you? Unless have you done it already surreptitiously? Hi. Please respond. I'm finally ready to pass out. I will read it later. Thanks.
I'll respond to your whatever thing later Acro not sure what the fuss is I did some research and spoke my mind. We can have a good healthy fight about it later if I don't die.
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EPT
