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Ok, I can absolutely get behind a Wiggles lynch after reading that filter.
The way he keeps promising future reads, saying he needs to read more, that he is waiting on players to post. He kept delaying and delaying and still never gave comprehensive reads. I find the way he interacts with with BH/TPS/GK to also be pretty suspicious. Early on he throws a lot of pressure GK's way. After the game has been going for a little while he starts giving opinions on TPS and GK that sound like hedging. He moderates his stances on both TPS and GK such that his options are more open and he isn't directly disagreeing with BH. It reads to me very much like he knew the actual situation as BH was pressuring and didn't want to sabotage what BH was doing. This is me extrapolating from the sense that Wiggles seems to be walking a very careful line between BH/TPS/GK.
I feel pretty strongly right now that Wiggles is scum, and that is where my vote is going.
Vote: Mr. Wiggles
PS. The next 2 I'm looking into are DP and glurio.
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I am definitely taking another look at Ryu today, I just am woefully ignorant of glurio's filter. That is why I picked it.
VE, what are your thoughts on DP? You agreed in day1(maybe N1) that your initial case on him was bad. Has he stayed on your radar or have you avoided him?
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ninjaed twice by WoS in the space of like an hour T.T
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On March 23 2013 07:00 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On March 23 2013 06:55 DoYouHas wrote:
I am definitely taking another look at Ryu today, I just am woefully ignorant of glurio's filter. That is why I picked it.
VE, what are your thoughts on DP? You agreed in day1(maybe N1) that your initial case on him was bad. Has he stayed on your radar or have you avoided him? He still hasn't done anything that screams town to me. He's doing a good job of at least OMGUSing engaging people who are suspicious of them, but beyond that there isn't much that indicates scumhunting. Which is odd considering his intimate interaction with the Ace lynch.
What is making DP stick out to me (and why I need to look into him more) is that I'm getting a disconnect from when I played with him in Witchcraft. I was scum and he was town. In Witchcraft he was still abrasive, but he was also constructive. By the end of day1 he had established himself as townie, second only to Hapa. I wasn't the only one who felt like that either, in Witchcraft people voted in town power roles, we killed DP because it was clear that the town sentiment leaned towards him being town enough that we were comfortable shooting him with a silver bullet (we were right, he died). I have not seen that active, pro-town DP from Witchcraft this game. I encourage you to take a look at that game.
Also, he has 9 pages of filter and I feel like I know very little about where he stands. Maybe that is just me being inattentive, but it might be a signal that he is flying under the radar.
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On March 23 2013 07:22 VisceraEyes wrote:
Well to be fair he just came in and was all "Aw man all my scumreads are dead BAH"
Townreads, but yeah, I get your point. Do you have any intention of looking into his Witchcraft play?
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I'm actually starting to realize why I had read him as town in day1 going through his filter again. I'll give more complete thoughts in a bit.
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Yeah... I'm pretty confident that DP is actually town. Unlike Wiggles, DP actually looks better for the BH flip. He has more than a few interactions with BH that seem very genuine. The way he defends himself is solid, the way he pursued his WoS suspicion but then is ready to drop it after WoS's claim. The way he interacted with Scib and went after layabout. Everything reads pretty townie.
@Kenpachi - What are your reasons for having DP as one of your top scum reads?
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The one upside to the massive drop in activity is that I don't have much to catch up on after 2 really busy days. I'll do that now and try and get some thoughts out before the day starts.
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@DP - I think it is safe to say that VE was town when BH masoned him. The logical way for a townie mason to operate is to mason other townies to improves scumhunting. Masoning scumreads is only likely to get you killed. Because of this I think it is reasonable to assume that BH would choose townies to start off with, that way he could justify his choices if he had to claim and would also have 2 townies that would likely be on his side because he was 'right' and discussed in-thread action with them. Also, the sequence of events just seems unbelievable for scum to make up. VE starts with a super-spotlight grabbing idea (SAST), follows it with revealing BH as a mason, then claims vet, then reveals a 3p with the acceptance line in it. The way that VE has pursued scum reads has sometimes been scummy, but almost everything else surrounding him points to town/3p.
Right now what concerns me the most are the people who have been coming in from time to time with large, thought out, persuasive posts. Unfortunately that is not a small group this game. I refuse to believe that even this town has utterly failed to provide any good analysis on people. So when I see that over the course of day2 we managed to put forth 3 townies and 1 probable townie as the lynch options, I have to think that town is being manipulated.
My advice if I happen to die tonight is to treat tomorrow like a second day1. Wipe the slate clean for everyone, IE your town/scum leanings, and proceed as if it was day1 with a ton of source material to talk about. We are all making assumptions that are screwing us, let go of your current scum reads, look at the game with fresh eyes, and see if you come to the same conclusion or if someone new sticks out to you even more.
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Hell no, don't throw out notes. Use some doublethink. Allow yourself to look at the same information with fresh eyes, then compare with your notes.
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I believe WoS's claim, and by extension I believe TPS is either town or some sort of GF role.
I think layabout is scum, and if he isn't the Mirror, I will eat my hat in true BH fashion. Look at this post:
On March 27 2013 03:39 layabout wrote:
I am back am from the looks of it i am one of the few.
I'm disappointed with the wiggles flip and surprised by the nightkills.
It would have been dumb for us to keep VE around and killing him has pretty much confirmed that the mirror exists. It's strange that mafia wanted to tell us this rather than take more predictable shots. Between the mirror being mafia and 3p i would say that 3rd makes a LOT more sense.
We are therefore looking at a 4-1-8 at best since If the mirror has recruited anybody we might not have control of the vote and with 2 KP this could very well be lylo.
Why are these players still alive?
Testsubject893
ThePeaShooter
WaveOfShadow
I might not be one to talk but with this level of activity and those spread out votes we don't stand a chance.
What is the purpose of this post? As far as I can tell all this post contains is speculation and WIFOM. Speculation about the VE kill specifically and nothing about the Coag kill.
The two specific things that catch my eye and scream scummy is the way that laya talks about the mirror, and his WIFOM list at the end.
Laya says that 3p makes a LOT more sense as an explanation for the Mirror when I would argue that the opposite is true. If the mirror is a 3p recruitmen role, why does no recruiting mechanic make sense? Yes, I've harped on this before. If the town is stacked with 6 powerful roles, 3xVig, doc, det, vet, what sort of answering power does scum have? RB, mason, maybe a GF? That isn't balanced. What would make it more balanced is if The Mirror was a scum version of the Nightmare role.
Let me paint a picture with some speculation of my own. Laya, the last living player from bureaucracy, the person most speculative about mason roles, and one of the biggest proponents of being open to/pushing the existence of a recruiting 3p, is The Mirror. He is drawn to speculation about mason roles because he is a mason role. He speculates about the existence of the 3rd party because it is his own scheme to get it into the town's mind/discussion and sidetrack things.
The likelihood of the existence of a 3p recruiting role goes down as more people die and don't flip 3rd party, also while the game drags on and there are no reports of The Mirror masoning anyone else (which is why I think it is suspicious that this is Layabout's go to explanation). Instead, I think that The Mirror is the scum version of The Nightmare, and the death of VE is the final result of his interaction with The Mirror.
But now you are thinking, why were there only 2 deaths last night? Well if TranceStorm was scum before he was modkilled, which I have a strong suspicion he was, then his modkill would have dropped scum to 3 players and 1 kp.
The Cosm wagon feels wrong to me. It feels like the Wiggles wagon after we lynched Ace. Day1 3(4*)-5/5 of the people who got votes were town. Day2 5/5 of the people who got votes were town. Day3, 1(2*)-3/3 of the people who got votes were town. * - I have DP as town in my reads, the parenthesis number is my opinion.
The trend that should be slapping you in the face when you read that information is that we have been looking completely in the wrong direction with most of our lynching efforts. Do a 180, don't just follow the same meandering path that started in day 2 that led from VE to Wiggles to Ace to Wiggles and now to Cosm. In my opinion that road leads to disaster.
Vote: layabout
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EBWOP: I forgot to get to the list of 'why are they alive?'.
All that list does is create suspicion about the claims/rolechecks of those 3 players. What is so bad about it is that he is suspicious of them as a group, which means all it is is WIFOM. If he wanted to attack WoS's claim or the greencheck on TPS or the vig claim of Test he would have addressed them separately. All this list is meant to do is draw the town into a useless discussion (sounds a lot like the 3p) and sow doubt about people largely considered town.
Layabout later retracts this by saying:On March 27 2013 04:00 layabout wrote:
That list is players that we should not lynch at all. Also know as players that i would have expected to be killed or obviously town players.
Kitaman27 are you being intentionally dumb?
Unfortunately for layabout his original list shows a much different line of reasoning than he puts forth in that quote.
layabout is saying that IF these guys are obviously townie, THEN why are they still alive? In other words, casting doubt on their towniness. There just simply no other way that the sentiment plays out. I wouldn't even think of it as a scum tell because I had similar thoughts, except that all his list is doing is inviting other people into WIFOM about the night kills.
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Welp WoS, I guess it is time to get to correcting you. A bit sad, as I'm actually one of the people who believes your claim.
Day 1 - You point out wishy-washyness towards zarepath. This confuses me, between myself, scib, and hopeless(ace), we had come up with good points against zarepath, or at the very least points that I agreed with and said as such. When the tide seemed to be turning to a GreY lynch and I had nothing else to present to convince people, I started digging through zare's meta for new things to bring up. I tried to do so as objectively as I could, because a massive tunnel of his meta is worthless, which is why I even included a game that was over a year old and caused problems with the point I was making. I was one of the biggest pushers of a zare lynch day 1. This should answer both "Has he ever had a solid scumread." and "Was he wishy-washy on zare". I was gung-ho about a zare lynch going into day 2 but was sidetracked with both keirathi's read of town on zare and his immediate death.
Soft defending BH - Yep, up until the moment he flipped I thought BH was town. Even in day 1, I thought the way he went after TPS and the way he defending GK was very much like town BH. The only thing that gave me pause about him was I didn't like the way he bullied geript.
Switching to Wiggles, then to Ace - I've addressed this before.
On March 22 2013 02:35 DoYouHas wrote:
@Vivax - You are right that I sheeped, but you are wrong about the instance. I sheeped the Wiggles wagon because at the time I saw it as the only alternative to the VE wagon that could actually have a chance of saving VE. When I switched to Ace it was because Mr. Wiggles case won me over. I thought the case was great and was framed in a view of the game that I agreed with. The Ace wagon had all the hallmarks of 'we are about to lynch scum' that I normally look for. People with strong opinions on other candidates were being won over gradually. There was surprising initial resistance. Ace did nothing to defend himself. I screwed up, but I'm not going to rewrite my thought process to make myself look better (like Moc). I thought that Ace was the right lynch, I was wrong.
In discussing the 3p in regards to VE - VE was a scum read for me before the reveal of the 3p logs. Once I read the logs and the reactions I came to the conclusion that VE had to be town revealing something to us, or he had to be scum, faking it. I spent a good amount of time trying to work out those two sides, but ended up thinking VE was town.
In discussing the 3p in general - Here is where I don't understand what you are finding so scummy. The paranoia I display in thinking that the 3p is some elaborate scum scheme is a townie impulse. The attempt to try and fit the strange information and events into a coherent narrative is a townie thing to do. Neither of these things ended up being right or useful, but they weren't scummy. In fact, if my ideas had held sway what would have happened? Town would have just kept on scumhunting, only ignoring 3p. My ideas about the 3p just don't serve a scum purpose. PS: Just because I didn't think the 3p existed doesn't mean I was going to eliminate the possibility completely, hence the considerations I gave in my lists of reads.
Lists of reads - My hope in posting my long lists of reads was that 1-2 things would happen.
1. People I had a town read on and had a town read on me would work with me in hunting scum.
2. People would object to my reads and that would give me a starting point in a discussion with them.
Neither of these things really happened. Yet another disappointment.
Layabout - I called layabout The Mirror, which I thought to be a scum role. Which means that this statement, "DYH's final efforts before disappearing for the day have been a push on layabout, calling him 3rd party despite the fact that he didn't originally believe the role existed (or was that just to protect BH? I guess he can't get his stories straight).", is just you talking out of your ass (IE. tunneling). Had I checked the thread after the 3p was confirmed I would have switched off of laya onto kita.
My inactivity - I know I have been doing town no favors with my lack of posting, and a meta read on me would suggest that less posting = more scummy. I have been busy and I have been tired and I have been disheartened. I don't have any particularly good excuse for my play today or yesterday.
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On March 30 2013 07:49 WaveofShadow wrote:
Alright DYH, if you're here then let's get something positive from you.
Top scumreads and why?
Your refutation of my points against you regarding your D1 play: what are your current thoughts on zare? Did you read my case on him at all?
My top scum read would be kita/ryu - Kita posted quite a few large, constructed, reasonable posts, enough to get me agreeing with him but felt like he was flying under the radar. He soft defends BH (in a more suspicious manner than me, imo). He pushes all the wrong lynches. Despite occupying the role of a big-case making analyst that for most of the game people were considering town, he is still alive. The big increase in his activity before the last lynch also bothered me. He went all out on the fake claim train when arguing against DP.
Ryu is someone I hadn't taken a good look at for a while because I thought he answered my early pressure of him well and so I put my attention elsewhere. What is scummiest about Ryu to me is his incredibly narrow focus throughout the game. Spent all of day1 on GreY, moved to VE, added in DP, added in cosmic right at the end. Almost his entire filter up until the last lynch is centered around those 4 players. Now that all of them have flipped the way that he is trolling around for a new target seems scummy.
I currently think zare is town, I don't remember the points you made against him off the top of my head. It was long and I was skimming. I'll go re-read.
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On March 30 2013 07:53 WaveofShadow wrote:
Oh and by the way what bothers me about your defenses of BH (which you didn't quite address) is that nowhere in your posting do you actually refer to him as town, you just hint at it little by little and avoid coming out with a read. I will admit my last point regarding layabout is probably my weakest and I'm willing to concede that (especially the association bit) with proper evidence but the fact remains that you have been spectacularly noncommittal all game, not just Day 1.
You're of no use to us if you can't give us something concrete and why. No sheeping, no WIFOM.
I did refer to him as town explicitly in my first set of reads right before day2.
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geript - I also don't think WoS is scum, your best point was probably that WoS wasn't trying to work with kita on the glurio-layabout cases, but that doesn't really change my opinion on his roleclaim, which I believe. Everything about his claim has been incredibly messy, too messy for a scum fake claim where the objective is to sell it. From the slow play of the role name and the check and the crumbs to the confusion about the pm he received and whether or not that meant he was RBed. Also, when he was initially under pressure from kita's case on him and he took his hard stance of "I do not lie, I am not scum, this is a point of pride", it struck me as very genuine.
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On March 30 2013 08:54 WaveofShadow wrote:
So you think that kita is bussing glurio at LYLO? Really?
I'm also interested in this. TPS, if you are correct then kita is bussing 2 of his scum buddies, and glurio is shoving kita pretty singlemindedly. This doesn't bother you at all?
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On March 30 2013 10:56 RyuSuzaku wrote:Show nested quote +On March 30 2013 09:59 Kenpachi wrote:
I have it out here: Ryu, DYH, geript all mafia so you think me and DYH are scum together, and I'm bussing him? This is all you have to say? loool
No you have it all wrong, we are bussing each other.
None of this even matters anymore, we are so screwed. We are at lylo with no leader, no consensus on lynch targets, no consensus on who is town (maybe we can all get behind TPS and geri). Even if we manage to lynch correctly today we are still probably screwed. The only way this goes well is if everyone consolidates. Yes, we are at that point, who can we consolidate on so that we actually have a chance of getting another screwed up day. Pick me? I'm town, you're screwed. But I don't see ryu and kenp going for anyone else. So let's talk.
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Strangely, I think I can get behind a glurio lynch, and here is why:
On March 18 2013 14:14 Oatsmaster wrote:
VOTE COUNT!
goodkarma (1): GreYMisT
GreYMisT (12): RyuSuzaku, goodkarma, Vivax, ThePeashooter, cosmicomics, Wade Fell, Mr. Wiggles, Kenpachi, zarepath, kitaman27, TestSubject893, WaveofShadow
zarepath (6): sciberbia, Hopeless1der, DoYouHas, DarthPunk, layabout, geript
DoYouHas (1): TranceStorm
DarthPunk (3): VisceraEyes, glurio, Coagulation
A pretty hard rule for scum in day 1 voting is that scum split their votes. I have never been in a game where that isn't true day1. I don't think TS was scum anymore, since scum had 2kp last night. I'm also banking on geript being town. That leaves layabout and glurio as unflipped people not on the GreY wagon I'm not confident about. Thoughts?
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And yes, this realization is causing me to reconsider my read on kita.
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EPT
