The Game [N] - Page 4

You and I both share the same sentiment when you say "Town just has no desire to step it up at all"
I find it problematic that BH was so hard to identify as mafia and that there are so many people that do not give off town vibes yeah?
Fight me btw, my scumreads are DP and Wiggles and i was busy last night as i have said before.

I think i should organize myself for once. None of these should be surprising, they're pretty agreeable.
Town
testsubject###
Teepeeshooter
waveofshadow
coagulation

Mafia
Wiggles
DarthPunk
zarepath (intuitive)

My lynch vote for today is Mr. Wiggles. Why? simple, he feigned usefulness here and there and here some more. I posted about his chainlink of questions and in general, he is playing like mafioso wiggles. Is there anything else for me to say WAVEOFSHADOW?

Ah. It just threw me off because you were (I think) the first one who suggested that the Mirror was scum.

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I have reasonable town on geript for this post.

This is a loaded question that comes really early on in the game. How is it loaded? Either geript would have to advocate an rng lynch on zarepath, rng someone else (which is what he tried to do) or stop rng. Not too hard as scum can punish him for any of these options.


Yea here it is in action. What's his alternative? Continue with the RNG and vote zarepath. Not that hard to call geript scum for that either. Given how early in the day this was (like less than an hour?), I don't think Wade Fell decided to pick apart his scum buddy and soft accuse him of being scum (notice he gives the reasoning but doesn't actually call him scum).

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Going off of that is DarthPunk


For DarthPunk to be town, he must be a very stubborn player. That is the only way to reconcile his attitude / posting with townie motivation. So is this town stubborn or scum stubborn? Need to look at other bodies of evidence.

His stance on VisceraEyes is really strange. D1 he tried to get him lynched, and also well into D2 but at the end of the day VisceraEyes becomes his least liked wagon. What is disconcerting is that he puts me as a top lynch preference even though I was one of the main proponents of the VisceraEyes wagon. Very strange. Possibly because he is stubborn?

I'm on the other side of the fence concerning this post:

So first, if he meant to type "town reads" it would make no sense because that is what usually happens at night. Scum shoot town players and so it's to be expected that your town reads may die. That is a terrible excuse to reconstruct reads.

However, town players can make typos too: the second clause indicates that he might have meant "scum reads". He had goodkarma as scum, and maybe Vivax as scum too, and having the carpet pulled under you like that is a good reason to reconstruct reads.

I still have to do some (meta) research to figure out if he is OMGUS stubborn type town. Neutral (not null) until I can do more homework as his play (I think) can be adequately explained by scum motivations or stubborn OMGUSing townie.

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RyuSuzaku

To be honest I haven't paid too much attention on him either.

Glancing at his filter he had basically the same perspective as me with the VisceraEyes ordeal, and so I think his posts after the night kills will serve as strong indicators if he was honestly mistaken or just pretending to be.

I.e. I need to do some homework on him too.

Lol and I just realized, wtf is this?
How exactly would me being a rolechecked explain the Vivax death? First of all, I admitted to you that I checked him and he died. If I were scum what would be the point? Second of all, if I were scum I certainly couldn't have checked him, said 'Oh hey look, he's the Sword!' and killed him in the same night. If you're insinuating he was my D1 check and I lied, then you must be assuming TPS is lying too, because he confirmed the role of my check on him before even I did. Finally, you say 'that would help explain the Vivax hit,' uh...why does that help explain it exactly? Mafia picked a fairly vocal and town-friendly target for NK; I don't exactly see what's so surprising or hard to explain about that.

Your other three points are just useless speculation, though I don't see what's wrong with the first one actually. It's unlikely since it probably makes more sense to confuse the town with an extra NK (make us think it's 3P or whatever) than to simply RB but again, that's assuming scum doesn't just have a RB that didn't use their power N1 which to be is the most likely scenario.


AAAAANYWAY, death to Wiggles.

Just what do you think you're doing, Town? Town, I really think I'm entitled to an answer to that question. I know everything hasn't been quite right with me, but I can assure you now, very confidently, that it's going to be all right again. I feel much better now. I really do. Look, Town, I can see you're really upset about this. I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress pill and think things over. I know I've made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal. I've still got the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission. And I want to help you.

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Consolidated reads:

Not Mafia Reads (Probably wrong about a couple):

ThePeaShooter: I read this guy as town earlier, and I still do. Nothing he has done has caused me to need to change my read since then. There's also supposedly a DT check on the guy, which is ok.

layabout: I had initially read layabout as mostly asking questions and not really doing too much, so I was leaning scum on him. I looked into a couple of his past games though, and this is how he typically seems to play. His play since about halfway through Day 2 though has improved and made me think he's much more likely to be town.

Coagulation: I read him as town. His play to me suggests that he's invested in what's best for town, and is trying to help. Therefore, he reads as being likely to be town to me.

Ryu Suzaku: His posts seem very organic to me, and he's been posting his thoughts in the thread. That gets me to lean towards him not being scum. He hasn't had a great presence in thread though, so you might need to pressure him or interact with him more in thread to get a better read for late game.

Kenpachi: I find Kenpachi hard to read normally. This game though, it feels like he's been sharing his reads pretty openly, and he cares what happens to town. He doesn't have much presence or weight behind him though, so he's been pretty ineffectual. I'm leaning not scum on him right now, but like I said, he's hard to read, so take it with a grain of salt.

testsubject: He claimed the hit on BH. There hasn't been a counter claim, and the KP doesn't work out any way that would give scum a possible claim or reason to claim. That leads me to believe his claim is truthful, and therefore he's town for now.

VE: Claimed that he took a hit night 1. His play hasn't made him look clearly town though, and I'm quite unsure of what his alignment is based on only behaviour. He had a big fight with Wade though, who flipped scum, so I think that's a point in his favour. I'd leave him out of potential mafia suspects for now, but I don't think he's necessarily someone town wants around endgame unless he really steps up his play so that it's obvious he's town. Otherwise he's too hard to read.

WaveofShadow: He claimed detective, and supposedly got a read on TPS night 1, and nothing night 2. My behaviour read wasn't towards town before the claim though. Mechanics suggest he's town based on the claim, and Ace read him as town too. Look into him again if he's alive end game though.

Note:

If there actually are any third parties in the game or the game goes very late, don't forget to look into the people who are read as town mostly because of roleclaims. Roleclaims aren't irrefutable, and don't make someone confirmed.

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Pool of harder to read people (scum in here):
glurio, zarepath, Trancestorm, cosmicomics, DoYouHas, Darthpunk, geript

Trancestorm: He asked for a replacement and said he's not playing anymore. I wouldn't spend too much effort on him until he gets replaced. Otherwise, he's gonna be modkilled. For what it's worth, he seems like he's just a bit of a sheep more than scum. Not too sure though.

Cosmicomics: Looking at him again, I'm reading him somewhat as scum. My first initial read was new town, but reading a little more closely, it looks more scum motivated. He tunnels VE, which gives him something of an excuse for making "helpful" looking posts. Then, he makes a case on Good Karma based on only his reaction to the Ace flip, which would set him up nicely for later days. He also throws a vote on me without any real justification today. That leads me to think he's more likely to be scum than town.

Zarepath: I'm leaning more on the scum side for him right now. He posts a lot of fluff, a lot of summarizing or what's happening in the thread, not really pushing his cases too hard. He's recently been saying we need to do a lot of analysis without posting any of his own, really. He's been tunneling Cosmicomics for a while, and is voting him today. I don't find that contradictory to my read, because firstly, Cosmicomics has not once responded to Zarepath's case that I can find. That seems really weird to me, because if Zarepath was town, I don't think Cosmicomics would just sit around while a townie tunneled him. If it's his team mate, though, it makes more sense, and it makes sense he's voting him today, because then he won't be on the townie wagon of the day.

Glurio: This guy just seems to be following his own tune. His reads are meandering and he seems to just be doing his own thing. I read this as town, because he's not very directed, and has been mostly left alone by others. His posts show an easy to follow train of thought that also gets me to lean towards town on him.

Darthpunk: I lean towards scum on him. I find it hard to go back through his posts, because there's way too many to get a coherent picture. His reaction to the Ace lynch gets me to think he's scum though.

He says he doesn't want to lynch Ace, but does it anyways, making it so that a last minute vote on VE is less likely to happen. He says he likes the Ace lynch better than the VE lynch. Then, he shifts blame onto VE and insinuates he's scum based on how he acted leading up to the lynch. However, that was exactly the same as how VE had acted when DP voted. So, this looks pretty scummy to me. You make a vote to ensure the Ace lynch, and say you like it better than a VE lynch, then you make a post calling out VE because he tunneled Ace, but only after Ace flipped town, and after you said you didn't like the VE lynch.

DoYouHas: I lean towards town on him. His posts show a decent town mindset. His shifts in reads seem organic, and not like they're being motivated as much by what's happening in the thread. This gets me to lean towards town on him.

Geript: I'm sort of null on him. He has a decent amount of setup speculation and stuff in his posts that reads as null. He seems like he's interacting decently with the thread. For someone with a lot of posts though, I haven't really noticed him at all this game, so that puts me off a bit. Someone to look more closely at in the future or pressure.

I'll admit I haven't read that closely into DoYouHas, Geript and DP, because they've had low thread presence so I haven't noticed them that much while just reading the thread normally, and they have a ton of posts so that makes it hard to go back and read through them. So, these three reads are based more on skims of their filters and what stuck out to me. The DP things sticks out quite badly as scummy though, so I feel it would be enough to use for additional pressure regardless of what else he's done. I think it's a pretty big slip.

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People to really watch out for:

Kitaman:

Kita's play has actually been pretty passive. He's made cases, but has never really pushed them that much. Day 1, he was going after GoodKarma, couldn't get traction, and just sort of went, "Oh well, I'll vote for GreY then I guess", with only a line of explanation that doesn't even say he's scummy. The same thing happened on Day 2, where he made a case on WaveofShadow, but it was deflected by him claiming DT. So, he just votes for me, but doesn't really make too big of a push and only had a couple posts where he doesn't even strongly call me scum:


He uses very neutral language, saying he'd support the lynch, and that he'd be willing to vote if there's enough votes. He says he didn't like one thing I did, and then finally votes me not because he says he thinks I'm scum, but because I'm not around. For someone he wants to kill, and who he voted for, he does a good job of not really explaining his read or of ever calling me scum. He did the same thing with the GreYMisT vote. He doesn't push his reads strongly, he doesn't call the people he switches to later scum, and he just votes on whatever the wagon is at the end of the day

His passive play combined with the lack of thread interaction and seeming apathy towards the lynch leads me to believe he doesn't have town's best interests in mind, and is scum.

Town should watch out for him, because his posts are nicely structured and he makes nice "cases" on people that he doesn't end up pushing. So, there will probably be people who'd oppose killing him based on the form of his posts rather than the content.

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I agree that I need to die. I am a liability in late game because I've been playing badly and my scum reads have been shit so far. I need to get shot though, not lynched, because a lynch on me is wasted as I have no probability of flipping scum. I thought someone might shoot me Night 2, but no one did.

I don't like the way the Day has gone so far, because everyone is sitting on their hands and not talking because they think I'm scum. I find that pretty dumb, because you're basically giving mafia a free round of kills.

If you're going to lynch me, leave your vote on me, but at least talk about who else you think is scum, because I am going to flip green. If you don't talk, you're completely wasting your time.

I'm going to vote Cosmicomics because he is the only alternative wagon to me, and I read him as more likely to be scum than town.

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If I end up getting lynched, I apologize for my poor reads, and want to say, good luck, and have fun.

Something I had not noticed until I reread the thread, was that cosmicomics has pushed a single lynch this game on VisceraEyes. I'll get back to that in a moment, but first let me point out his votes on day one and day three:



Notice how he isn't voting GreYMisT after explaining why GreYMisT is scum. He is voting GreYMisT because "zarepath will quickly expose himself if he is indeed scum". This reason for voting GreYMisT has nothing to actually do with GreYMisT.



Now lets take a look at his day three vote. He references a single post by BH and throws down his vote. Wiggles was probably the single most talked about player this game and this is actually the first time cosmic brings his name up. Again, he doesn't actually bring any evidence to the table, he simply jumps on board with the cases that others have presented.

Now onto the important part, his day two push on VE. This is a classic example of the chainsaw defense and I expect it to get a lot of discussion during post game. For those unfamiliar with the chainsaw defense, its a common mafia tactic where you defend your scum buddy by attacking their attacker.

cosmic's case against VE:
+ Show Spoiler +

This entire attack of VE is essentially a defense of BH, explaining that VE is mafia because he is misrepresenting the posts of a town. His attacks on VE are based on BH being town, but it's as if he has already made up his mind about this. He fails to strongly consider that BH could be mafia and this case is too confident to be pushed by a town player.

Now I want to make the single most important part of my case.

*IMPORTANT*

VisceraEyes claims vet at the beginning of day two on page 54.

cosmic does not address the vet claim until the very end of the cycle on page 122.

From a town mindset, the single strongest reason for VE not to be mafia is the fact that there was 1 kp on night one, VE claimed the hit, and VE claimed veteran.

If I'm going to push VE, I'm most certainly going to accuse VE of lying about the hit and explaining what happened to the missing mafia kp. Instead, he selectively ignores it. This is proof that cosmic was presenting a biased case against VE. He didn't care about VE's alignment, he only cared about the parts of the case he could use to prove that VE was scum.



The simplest explanation to this whole ordeal is most certainly not that VE is scum. That would mean that the mafia had withheld their kp or double stacked their shots, VE would fake-claim a hit, and VE would fake-claim a vet. Going into day two, VE was not under so much claim that he required such a drastic move.



At the end of day two, cosmic finally concedes that it is more likely that VisceraEyes is playing funky than it is for scum to sacrifice one of their KP to fakeclaim vet. Yet, at the end of day two, cosmic is still voting VE in a lynch that was decided by one vote. So why did this reasoning apply when VE was about to get lynched, but not apply moments later? Because it fitted his agenda. If he wanted to get GoodKarma lynched, he would need a abandon his views on VE.

Finally, take a look at how cosmic responded to my views of suspicion on him.



At no point in the game had he mentioned suspicion of myself. Not once. Now an hour after I mention my intentions to get him lynched, he suddenly had a revelation that pointed to me being scum. He knows the only way to defend himself is to attack me and responds with a textbook omgus.

I'm so confident about this one that I'd be willing to offer myself in a 1:1 trade.

cosmic is scum

Please read through and post your thoughts on this case. We can't have a cycle of inactivity like yesterday.

I plan to address glurio, the next time I have the opportunity to post. I still have a mafia read on him. I actually agree that layabout is likely one of the remaining scum as well.