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Just what do you think you're doing, Town? Town, I really think I'm entitled to an answer to that question. I know everything hasn't been quite right with me, but I can assure you now, very confidently, that it's going to be all right again. I feel much better now. I really do. Look, Town, I can see you're really upset about this. I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress pill and think things over. I know I've made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal. I've still got the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission. And I want to help you.
Consolidated reads:
Not Mafia Reads (Probably wrong about a couple):
ThePeaShooter: I read this guy as town earlier, and I still do. Nothing he has done has caused me to need to change my read since then. There's also supposedly a DT check on the guy, which is ok.
layabout: I had initially read layabout as mostly asking questions and not really doing too much, so I was leaning scum on him. I looked into a couple of his past games though, and this is how he typically seems to play. His play since about halfway through Day 2 though has improved and made me think he's much more likely to be town.
Coagulation: I read him as town. His play to me suggests that he's invested in what's best for town, and is trying to help. Therefore, he reads as being likely to be town to me.
Ryu Suzaku: His posts seem very organic to me, and he's been posting his thoughts in the thread. That gets me to lean towards him not being scum. He hasn't had a great presence in thread though, so you might need to pressure him or interact with him more in thread to get a better read for late game.
Kenpachi: I find Kenpachi hard to read normally. This game though, it feels like he's been sharing his reads pretty openly, and he cares what happens to town. He doesn't have much presence or weight behind him though, so he's been pretty ineffectual. I'm leaning not scum on him right now, but like I said, he's hard to read, so take it with a grain of salt.
testsubject: He claimed the hit on BH. There hasn't been a counter claim, and the KP doesn't work out any way that would give scum a possible claim or reason to claim. That leads me to believe his claim is truthful, and therefore he's town for now.
VE: Claimed that he took a hit night 1. His play hasn't made him look clearly town though, and I'm quite unsure of what his alignment is based on only behaviour. He had a big fight with Wade though, who flipped scum, so I think that's a point in his favour. I'd leave him out of potential mafia suspects for now, but I don't think he's necessarily someone town wants around endgame unless he really steps up his play so that it's obvious he's town. Otherwise he's too hard to read.
WaveofShadow: He claimed detective, and supposedly got a read on TPS night 1, and nothing night 2. My behaviour read wasn't towards town before the claim though. Mechanics suggest he's town based on the claim, and Ace read him as town too. Look into him again if he's alive end game though.
Note:
If there actually are any third parties in the game or the game goes very late, don't forget to look into the people who are read as town mostly because of roleclaims. Roleclaims aren't irrefutable, and don't make someone confirmed.
Pool of harder to read people (scum in here):
glurio, zarepath, Trancestorm, cosmicomics, DoYouHas, Darthpunk, geript
Trancestorm: He asked for a replacement and said he's not playing anymore. I wouldn't spend too much effort on him until he gets replaced. Otherwise, he's gonna be modkilled. For what it's worth, he seems like he's just a bit of a sheep more than scum. Not too sure though.
Cosmicomics: Looking at him again, I'm reading him somewhat as scum. My first initial read was new town, but reading a little more closely, it looks more scum motivated. He tunnels VE, which gives him something of an excuse for making "helpful" looking posts. Then, he makes a case on Good Karma based on only his reaction to the Ace flip, which would set him up nicely for later days. He also throws a vote on me without any real justification today. That leads me to think he's more likely to be scum than town.
Zarepath: I'm leaning more on the scum side for him right now. He posts a lot of fluff, a lot of summarizing or what's happening in the thread, not really pushing his cases too hard. He's recently been saying we need to do a lot of analysis without posting any of his own, really. He's been tunneling Cosmicomics for a while, and is voting him today. I don't find that contradictory to my read, because firstly, Cosmicomics has not once responded to Zarepath's case that I can find. That seems really weird to me, because if Zarepath was town, I don't think Cosmicomics would just sit around while a townie tunneled him. If it's his team mate, though, it makes more sense, and it makes sense he's voting him today, because then he won't be on the townie wagon of the day.
Glurio: This guy just seems to be following his own tune. His reads are meandering and he seems to just be doing his own thing. I read this as town, because he's not very directed, and has been mostly left alone by others. His posts show an easy to follow train of thought that also gets me to lean towards town on him.
Darthpunk: I lean towards scum on him. I find it hard to go back through his posts, because there's way too many to get a coherent picture. His reaction to the Ace lynch gets me to think he's scum though.
On March 21 2013 15:49 DarthPunk wrote:
Yeah I honestly didn't think VE would be tied on 7 votes. I don't like the ace lynch but I like the VE lynch less.
##unvote
##vote: Ace
Ugh this whole situation is fucked. On March 21 2013 16:02 DarthPunk wrote:
Shameful. We should have lynched goodkarma. On March 21 2013 16:05 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 16:04 VisceraEyes wrote:
Wow. Just....wow.
I'm still not scum guys. And time will tell if I'm some kind of 3rd party I guess because as of right now I'm an advocate of lynching me BEFORE LYLO. Obviously I'll likely change my tune the closer we draw to LYLO if I indeed turn to 3rd Party. Funny that you promised a mega case post and then tunnelled a townie to death instead.
He says he doesn't want to lynch Ace, but does it anyways, making it so that a last minute vote on VE is less likely to happen. He says he likes the Ace lynch better than the VE lynch. Then, he shifts blame onto VE and insinuates he's scum based on how he acted leading up to the lynch. However, that was exactly the same as how VE had acted when DP voted. So, this looks pretty scummy to me. You make a vote to ensure the Ace lynch, and say you like it better than a VE lynch, then you make a post calling out VE because he tunneled Ace, but only after Ace flipped town, and after you said you didn't like the VE lynch.
DoYouHas: I lean towards town on him. His posts show a decent town mindset. His shifts in reads seem organic, and not like they're being motivated as much by what's happening in the thread. This gets me to lean towards town on him.
Geript: I'm sort of null on him. He has a decent amount of setup speculation and stuff in his posts that reads as null. He seems like he's interacting decently with the thread. For someone with a lot of posts though, I haven't really noticed him at all this game, so that puts me off a bit. Someone to look more closely at in the future or pressure.
I'll admit I haven't read that closely into DoYouHas, Geript and DP, because they've had low thread presence so I haven't noticed them that much while just reading the thread normally, and they have a ton of posts so that makes it hard to go back and read through them. So, these three reads are based more on skims of their filters and what stuck out to me. The DP things sticks out quite badly as scummy though, so I feel it would be enough to use for additional pressure regardless of what else he's done. I think it's a pretty big slip.
People to really watch out for:
Kitaman:
Kita's play has actually been pretty passive. He's made cases, but has never really pushed them that much. Day 1, he was going after GoodKarma, couldn't get traction, and just sort of went, "Oh well, I'll vote for GreY then I guess", with only a line of explanation that doesn't even say he's scummy. The same thing happened on Day 2, where he made a case on WaveofShadow, but it was deflected by him claiming DT. So, he just votes for me, but doesn't really make too big of a push and only had a couple posts where he doesn't even strongly call me scum:
On March 21 2013 09:02 kitaman27 wrote:
I'd support Wiggles or GK as an alternative, but I don't have the couple hours I'd need to put a case together and push a lynch at the moment. On March 21 2013 09:32 kitaman27 wrote:
As for today's lynch, Wiggles needs to get in here and tell us who he is voting for. He obviously shouldn't still be voting you, based on the reasons I just mentioned. I want to hear who he wants to lynch. I'd be willing to vote for him if we have the votes. On March 21 2013 09:34 kitaman27 wrote:
I also didn't like how Wiggles responded to my case about Wave. Rather than pushing the idea himself, he asked for my confirmation to elaborate for him. On March 21 2013 11:14 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm swapping my vote to him since he doesn't seem to care at all about what happens tonight.
He uses very neutral language, saying he'd support the lynch, and that he'd be willing to vote if there's enough votes. He says he didn't like one thing I did, and then finally votes me not because he says he thinks I'm scum, but because I'm not around. For someone he wants to kill, and who he voted for, he does a good job of not really explaining his read or of ever calling me scum. He did the same thing with the GreYMisT vote. He doesn't push his reads strongly, he doesn't call the people he switches to later scum, and he just votes on whatever the wagon is at the end of the day
His passive play combined with the lack of thread interaction and seeming apathy towards the lynch leads me to believe he doesn't have town's best interests in mind, and is scum.
Town should watch out for him, because his posts are nicely structured and he makes nice "cases" on people that he doesn't end up pushing. So, there will probably be people who'd oppose killing him based on the form of his posts rather than the content.
I agree that I need to die. I am a liability in late game because I've been playing badly and my scum reads have been shit so far. I need to get shot though, not lynched, because a lynch on me is wasted as I have no probability of flipping scum. I thought someone might shoot me Night 2, but no one did.
I don't like the way the Day has gone so far, because everyone is sitting on their hands and not talking because they think I'm scum. I find that pretty dumb, because you're basically giving mafia a free round of kills.
If you're going to lynch me, leave your vote on me, but at least talk about who else you think is scum, because I am going to flip green. If you don't talk, you're completely wasting your time.
I'm going to vote Cosmicomics because he is the only alternative wagon to me, and I read him as more likely to be scum than town.
If I end up getting lynched, I apologize for my poor reads, and want to say, good luck, and have fun.
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I just didn't want my post on the bottom of the page again.
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TranceStorm has left the game
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I just wanted to make it official so there was no confusion. He will not be replaced.
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On second thoughts since we seem set on lynching Wiggles we might as well get on with talking about tomorrow.
+ Show Spoiler [Feck sake] +TranceStorm: He is a non-entity on day1. He says that meta arguement don't work on day1 and throws his voteon DoYouHas. It's a complete throwaway vote and even when he pops back in to express his support of a zarepath lynch, he makes no attempt to consolidate. His explanation for his support is "other peoples arguments". He also makes a big deal of the alleged Vivax slip which was for the most part a waste of time. None of this play feels townie. He start night 1 by drawingsaying that wiggles is his scumread. He also has the scum perspective on the brain: + Show Spoiler +On March 21 2013 10:11 TranceStorm wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 09:54 Vivax wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On March 21 2013 09:48 TranceStorm wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 09:41 Vivax wrote:
It's so easy to find people scummy who contribute when there are guys playing so obviously anti-town or trolling or invisible that you don't want to lynch them.
"The vigs will settle it" is not a valid attitude. Imagine if you have a whole bunch of such guys but not a vig for each one of them, which will likely be the case in most games. It doesn't look like we have vigs anyway,so it's in our hands.
Let's teach this kind of people how to play the game plz
Unvote
Vote: Coagulation This is actually exactly what I was referring to earlier. You avoid the major candidates of the day and make a case against someone who you know won't be lynched! There's literally no pressure on Coagulation, so why bother voting for him? This entire game you have been pushing unlikely lynch candidates and I am becoming more and more suspicious -> it seems to me like you are trying to appear as if you are contributing to the discussion. It's much easier for scum to look like they're contributing when they make cases on players most of the thread believes to be scum, since others will find it easier to agree with their cases and hence see them positively. And if scum gets attacked while doing so, the attackers will look like they are attacking the lynch wagon as well, which will attract a lot of attention. You are putting things backwards here. I am contributing to people that most of the thread doesn't seem to care about, and that's what you need usually instead of a blob of collective confirmation bias on single players. Let's think of the game from a scum perspective. Scum want to remain 'under the radar' throughout the game. Therefore, you're presumption is incorrect because even though "others will find it easier to agree with their cases and hence see them positively" on the day of the lynch, being on the mislynch train is incredibly suspicious the following day. Hence, one approach that a mafia player could take is to make lots of cases against a couple of relatively scummy players who don't have much pressure on them and to avoid getting involved in lynches entirely by parking their votes on people who definitely won't get lynched. I'm reasonably certain that you are following this approach. He also makes repeated references to "staying under the radar" and "blending in" as how scum intend to play, which is an accurate description for his play. If he is consistently looking at the game from a mafia's perspective it's probably because he is mafia. In some circumstances town will think about what mafia will be doing but the town approach to the game does not start with trying to second guess how mafia will play. Wiggles shows up and Trance's top scumread has suddenly vanished and he sheeps onto the Ace wagon.
I will be busy for many hours now.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Hmm I was planning about writing a case against TranceStorm, but there isn't much sense in spending time convincing everyone that a dead man was mafia.
In response to Wiggles, you act as if I just decided to switch over to GreYMisT without mentioning him at all. I expressed a scum read on him several times, but of course you choose to ignore this. I was the first one to attack him for his "trap" when he returned to the thread and you referenced my questioning of this trap several times yourself in your own decision to vote GreYMisT so surely you should remember this. Rather than respond to any of the reasoning I've brought up against you, you decide to quote a few one-liners at a point where I had worked a 12 hour day and had no free time. Now, rather than voting your strongest scumread, you've decided to push the only alternative for your own survival. The reads you provide are non-specific, something I'd expect from a mafia player who is about to flip, but doesn't want his reads to be used against him. Not much more to say here.
For tomorrow, someone I think we should be looking at is glurio.
To start the game, he posts suspicion against coag, stating that coag is useless, without actually calling coag scummy.
On March 18 2013 03:16 glurio wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2013 03:12 Coagulation wrote:
glurio your defending him pretty hard for someone who may have scum slipped. I don't think he's scum. I'd much rather lynch you, you're absolutely useless so far. How about spending the time scumhunting?
On March 18 2013 03:46 glurio wrote:
On a different note: i really want to lynch coag.
Rather than actually voting for coag, he votes for DP, a player he never actually mentions in the thread. It's not like DP was more of a lynch-able candidate as there were only 2 votes on him. During the first cycle, he never actually mentions GreYMisT, which is significant considering he was the main lynch candidate for the day.
He soft defends BH, without actually providing a reason why he doesn't have a scum read on him. With the day two vote, he votes for Mocsta as the lone vote. At no point in the cycle does he try to convince others to vote Mocsta, only that he was going with his "gut". After the BH flip, he explains how BH's interaction with Wiggles is scum-to-scum conversation, yet decides to vote cosmicomics.
On March 23 2013 02:17 glurio wrote:
Well i feel like no one bothers to read my posts this whole game, so i was a bit pissed. I'm certainly open for discussion.
Glurio complains that no one listens to him, but on day one and two there was actually nothing to listen to. How are we supposed to be convinced by his posts if his only explanation is his gut?
Overall, Glurio feels like an observer this game, looking to stay under the radar and lacks the town motivation to push a lynch. It seems that he cares more about survival and doing his own thing, voting for players that have no chance of being lynched. He would be a good lynch candidate tomorrow.
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On March 24 2013 02:44 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Just what do you think you're doing, Town? Town, I really think I'm entitled to an answer to that question. I know everything hasn't been quite right with me, but I can assure you now, very confidently, that it's going to be all right again. I feel much better now. I really do. Look, Town, I can see you're really upset about this. I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress pill and think things over. I know I've made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal. I've still got the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission. And I want to help you.
Consolidated reads: Not Mafia Reads (Probably wrong about a couple):ThePeaShooter: I read this guy as town earlier, and I still do. Nothing he has done has caused me to need to change my read since then. There's also supposedly a DT check on the guy, which is ok. layabout: I had initially read layabout as mostly asking questions and not really doing too much, so I was leaning scum on him. I looked into a couple of his past games though, and this is how he typically seems to play. His play since about halfway through Day 2 though has improved and made me think he's much more likely to be town. Coagulation: I read him as town. His play to me suggests that he's invested in what's best for town, and is trying to help. Therefore, he reads as being likely to be town to me. Ryu Suzaku: His posts seem very organic to me, and he's been posting his thoughts in the thread. That gets me to lean towards him not being scum. He hasn't had a great presence in thread though, so you might need to pressure him or interact with him more in thread to get a better read for late game. Kenpachi: I find Kenpachi hard to read normally. This game though, it feels like he's been sharing his reads pretty openly, and he cares what happens to town. He doesn't have much presence or weight behind him though, so he's been pretty ineffectual. I'm leaning not scum on him right now, but like I said, he's hard to read, so take it with a grain of salt. testsubject: He claimed the hit on BH. There hasn't been a counter claim, and the KP doesn't work out any way that would give scum a possible claim or reason to claim. That leads me to believe his claim is truthful, and therefore he's town for now. VE: Claimed that he took a hit night 1. His play hasn't made him look clearly town though, and I'm quite unsure of what his alignment is based on only behaviour. He had a big fight with Wade though, who flipped scum, so I think that's a point in his favour. I'd leave him out of potential mafia suspects for now, but I don't think he's necessarily someone town wants around endgame unless he really steps up his play so that it's obvious he's town. Otherwise he's too hard to read. WaveofShadow: He claimed detective, and supposedly got a read on TPS night 1, and nothing night 2. My behaviour read wasn't towards town before the claim though. Mechanics suggest he's town based on the claim, and Ace read him as town too. Look into him again if he's alive end game though. Note:If there actually are any third parties in the game or the game goes very late, don't forget to look into the people who are read as town mostly because of roleclaims. Roleclaims aren't irrefutable, and don't make someone confirmed.
Pool of harder to read people (scum in here):glurio, zarepath, Trancestorm, cosmicomics, DoYouHas, Darthpunk, geript Trancestorm: He asked for a replacement and said he's not playing anymore. I wouldn't spend too much effort on him until he gets replaced. Otherwise, he's gonna be modkilled. For what it's worth, he seems like he's just a bit of a sheep more than scum. Not too sure though. Cosmicomics: Looking at him again, I'm reading him somewhat as scum. My first initial read was new town, but reading a little more closely, it looks more scum motivated. He tunnels VE, which gives him something of an excuse for making "helpful" looking posts. Then, he makes a case on Good Karma based on only his reaction to the Ace flip, which would set him up nicely for later days. He also throws a vote on me without any real justification today. That leads me to think he's more likely to be scum than town. Zarepath: I'm leaning more on the scum side for him right now. He posts a lot of fluff, a lot of summarizing or what's happening in the thread, not really pushing his cases too hard. He's recently been saying we need to do a lot of analysis without posting any of his own, really. He's been tunneling Cosmicomics for a while, and is voting him today. I don't find that contradictory to my read, because firstly, Cosmicomics has not once responded to Zarepath's case that I can find. That seems really weird to me, because if Zarepath was town, I don't think Cosmicomics would just sit around while a townie tunneled him. If it's his team mate, though, it makes more sense, and it makes sense he's voting him today, because then he won't be on the townie wagon of the day. Glurio: This guy just seems to be following his own tune. His reads are meandering and he seems to just be doing his own thing. I read this as town, because he's not very directed, and has been mostly left alone by others. His posts show an easy to follow train of thought that also gets me to lean towards town on him. Darthpunk: I lean towards scum on him. I find it hard to go back through his posts, because there's way too many to get a coherent picture. His reaction to the Ace lynch gets me to think he's scum though. Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 15:49 DarthPunk wrote:
Yeah I honestly didn't think VE would be tied on 7 votes. I don't like the ace lynch but I like the VE lynch less.
##unvote
##vote: Ace
Ugh this whole situation is fucked. Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 16:02 DarthPunk wrote:
Shameful. We should have lynched goodkarma. Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 16:05 DarthPunk wrote:On March 21 2013 16:04 VisceraEyes wrote:
Wow. Just....wow.
I'm still not scum guys. And time will tell if I'm some kind of 3rd party I guess because as of right now I'm an advocate of lynching me BEFORE LYLO. Obviously I'll likely change my tune the closer we draw to LYLO if I indeed turn to 3rd Party. Funny that you promised a mega case post and then tunnelled a townie to death instead. He says he doesn't want to lynch Ace, but does it anyways, making it so that a last minute vote on VE is less likely to happen. He says he likes the Ace lynch better than the VE lynch. Then, he shifts blame onto VE and insinuates he's scum based on how he acted leading up to the lynch. However, that was exactly the same as how VE had acted when DP voted. So, this looks pretty scummy to me. You make a vote to ensure the Ace lynch, and say you like it better than a VE lynch, then you make a post calling out VE because he tunneled Ace, but only after Ace flipped town, and after you said you didn't like the VE lynch. DoYouHas: I lean towards town on him. His posts show a decent town mindset. His shifts in reads seem organic, and not like they're being motivated as much by what's happening in the thread. This gets me to lean towards town on him. Geript: I'm sort of null on him. He has a decent amount of setup speculation and stuff in his posts that reads as null. He seems like he's interacting decently with the thread. For someone with a lot of posts though, I haven't really noticed him at all this game, so that puts me off a bit. Someone to look more closely at in the future or pressure. I'll admit I haven't read that closely into DoYouHas, Geript and DP, because they've had low thread presence so I haven't noticed them that much while just reading the thread normally, and they have a ton of posts so that makes it hard to go back and read through them. So, these three reads are based more on skims of their filters and what stuck out to me. The DP things sticks out quite badly as scummy though, so I feel it would be enough to use for additional pressure regardless of what else he's done. I think it's a pretty big slip.
People to really watch out for:Kitaman: Kita's play has actually been pretty passive. He's made cases, but has never really pushed them that much. Day 1, he was going after GoodKarma, couldn't get traction, and just sort of went, "Oh well, I'll vote for GreY then I guess", with only a line of explanation that doesn't even say he's scummy. The same thing happened on Day 2, where he made a case on WaveofShadow, but it was deflected by him claiming DT. So, he just votes for me, but doesn't really make too big of a push and only had a couple posts where he doesn't even strongly call me scum: Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 09:02 kitaman27 wrote:
I'd support Wiggles or GK as an alternative, but I don't have the couple hours I'd need to put a case together and push a lynch at the moment. Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 09:32 kitaman27 wrote:
As for today's lynch, Wiggles needs to get in here and tell us who he is voting for. He obviously shouldn't still be voting you, based on the reasons I just mentioned. I want to hear who he wants to lynch. I'd be willing to vote for him if we have the votes. Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 09:34 kitaman27 wrote:
I also didn't like how Wiggles responded to my case about Wave. Rather than pushing the idea himself, he asked for my confirmation to elaborate for him. Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 11:14 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm swapping my vote to him since he doesn't seem to care at all about what happens tonight. He uses very neutral language, saying he'd support the lynch, and that he'd be willing to vote if there's enough votes. He says he didn't like one thing I did, and then finally votes me not because he says he thinks I'm scum, but because I'm not around. For someone he wants to kill, and who he voted for, he does a good job of not really explaining his read or of ever calling me scum. He did the same thing with the GreYMisT vote. He doesn't push his reads strongly, he doesn't call the people he switches to later scum, and he just votes on whatever the wagon is at the end of the day His passive play combined with the lack of thread interaction and seeming apathy towards the lynch leads me to believe he doesn't have town's best interests in mind, and is scum. Town should watch out for him, because his posts are nicely structured and he makes nice "cases" on people that he doesn't end up pushing. So, there will probably be people who'd oppose killing him based on the form of his posts rather than the content.
I agree that I need to die. I am a liability in late game because I've been playing badly and my scum reads have been shit so far. I need to get shot though, not lynched, because a lynch on me is wasted as I have no probability of flipping scum. I thought someone might shoot me Night 2, but no one did. I don't like the way the Day has gone so far, because everyone is sitting on their hands and not talking because they think I'm scum. I find that pretty dumb, because you're basically giving mafia a free round of kills. If you're going to lynch me, leave your vote on me, but at least talk about who else you think is scum, because I am going to flip green. If you don't talk, you're completely wasting your time.I'm going to vote Cosmicomics because he is the only alternative wagon to me, and I read him as more likely to be scum than town.
If I end up getting lynched, I apologize for my poor reads, and want to say, good luck, and have fun.
Sorry Wiggles. A giant list post of your reads is not going to be enough to distract us this time. As far as you flipping green, if you do I think town should honestly just concede this game or something because there's been a lot of shit play to go around and people apologizing for it isn't going to cut it.
I have to go through the rest of this page but skimming through I see:
TS has left - great. No flip, of course so now we have so many fucking unknowns we'll never be able to determine how many scum are left properly...ugh. I'm going to assume he was scum as he was one of my reads along with glurio and Wiggles; even if Wiggles doesn't flip red (NO FUCKING WAY) then that means night KP for scum will be reduced.
(Math: assuming 5 scum - we now have 4 and original scum KP was X/2 rounded down).
Also speaking of glurio I have to read over your case, kita because it seems I'm not going to get to a case on him today like I had wanted but I fully support a lynch on him D4.
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Lol that actually didn't take very long, lol.
Kita that final post from Wriggles just SCREAMS scum at me; I like your analysis of what he's doing with that post. I'd also like to add that calling you the only person to watch out for seems like he's trying to induce WIFOM---you're probably one of my strongest townreads atm and your thinking seems to coincide with mine so I can't really see where that's going to get him, at least in my opinion. Haha at one point he even states that you make up nicely structured cases without pushing his reads, which is EXACTLY what he did D2, while he is apparently ignoring your case on me which you DID push. If he wasn't just giving up as scum he'd actually try to help the town out by making a mislynch worth something at least instead of posting that drivel.
I think when I do get to post my case on glurio it will actually complement yours rather than just reinforce points you've already made. Having played a couple games with him I'm fairly sure I have a handle on his play---I correctly read him as town in LX when basically nobody else did.
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@Kita:
I don't really feel like fighting against my lynch, because I feel a lot of it is based off of activity, and I've never had any luck arguing against people when that's the basis before. For some reason, people equate not posting with being apathetic, and not having super strong scum-reads in a game full of spam and bullshit as being not useful. Most of my reads are based off the people who I feel are town in this game, rather than having a lot of strong scum reads, so that made it impossible to write a bunch of cases just to appease people.
For example, what are the points you bring up against me? You say I don't care? That comes out because I'm not in the thread posting. But maybe I'm just busy too?
Same thing with half your points about the Ace case. The first half of the cycle, I was waiting for Ace to post. How could I make a case based on Ace not following through with his promises and trying to get the town away from scumhunting earlier in the cycle, when he had just replaced in that night? That would be idiotic, so how's it part of your case?
Same thing with the timing of my case. You say I "wait" until late to post it, but that's just because I wasn't at home to post it. I got home, wrote it, and posted it. It was near the end of the cycle, but that's when I had time to post it. After a bunch of bad experiences with people being schedule nazis, I've decided I am no longer giving an accounting of my time to people in a mafia game. I'll post when I'm around to and feel like it, and if people don't like that, that's too bad. Unfortunately, the timing didn't work well in this game, and people interpreted it as being opportunistic or delaying.
I'll give you the point about not analyzing Hopeless1der, but that was mostly because he read more as town than scum, but it was day 1, so it's not like it's that hard to do as scum. I didn't want to shoot my own case in the foot by saying, "Oh, yeah, that guy Ace replaced looked kind've townie by the way". I was convinced on Ace, so I didn't care about Hopeless.
As for you, your posts about GreYMisT, you only have this to say about him before you switch over:
I'm going to throw my vote your way to get things started.
##Vote goodkarma
I'm also suspicious of GreYMisT. I'll wait to post about him until later since he promised a contribution when he is less busy today. Would I have fallen for your "trap"? I find this scummy.
You call him suspicious. You don't call him scum, you don't "express a scum read on him several times", that's a lie. You say that he's suspicious, and you call his trap scummy, but that's really it.
You question GreY about the "trap", but you never push it past asking him once. When GreY doesn't answer, you just let it slide completely. You weren't interested in sounding him out or in actually getting an answer, you don't pressure him besides just asking once. It's a very passive style of making a post with a pro-town point or idea, but not following up on it.
And lastly, of course I'm voting for my own survival. I've already expressed that I need to die. I'd just much rather be shot than waste a lynch. I posted my reads so you would have them for after I flip. You can interpret that how you want.
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On March 21 2013 12:09 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Ace is very quick to spam the idea that VE is third party and that he has to be the lynch, as shown in these posts: + Show Spoiler +On March 21 2013 01:24 Ace wrote:
lynch VE. now. On March 21 2013 01:38 Ace wrote:
your right, it's not like a claimed Vet is a confirmed Town sure to get shot because he is running around popping Scum and didn't just say he accepted an invite from 3rd party.
Stop being ridiculous. On March 21 2013 01:42 Ace wrote:
I dont have one, and I don't think it's important right now.Lynch VE. On March 21 2013 01:47 Ace wrote:
Who CARES if he is a Vet? He just posted logs of him joining a 3rd party and even said fuck the Town. This isn't hard. On March 21 2013 01:52 Ace wrote:
Stop talking about other people and stay focused on one person at a time. Jesus I don't want to have to teach people how to play my first game back in months.
Just dealwith VE now. Re-read the log: He accepted to join a 3rd party that clearly doesn't have interest in helping the Town. Whether VE is still Townis irrelevant: whatever powers he gets or grants to the 3rd party isn't going to help us. Lynch him now. Treat him like a self aware Miller and just solve the problem immediately. Within 30 minutes, Ace has posted 5 times reinforcing that VE is third-party and has to be lynched. In later posts, he continues to overplay the threat of VE that he has established, saying that he has extra powers, that he's unkillable, and that we'd have an unlynchable anti-town player at one point. These don't provide any additional reasons for why VE is scum, instead they only help scare town into thinking VE will become some unstoppable third party if he's left alive.
Where did Ace do any of this?
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On March 24 2013 04:20 cosmicomics wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 12:09 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Ace is very quick to spam the idea that VE is third party and that he has to be the lynch, as shown in these posts: + Show Spoiler +On March 21 2013 01:24 Ace wrote:
lynch VE. now. On March 21 2013 01:38 Ace wrote:
your right, it's not like a claimed Vet is a confirmed Town sure to get shot because he is running around popping Scum and didn't just say he accepted an invite from 3rd party.
Stop being ridiculous. On March 21 2013 01:42 Ace wrote:
I dont have one, and I don't think it's important right now.Lynch VE. On March 21 2013 01:47 Ace wrote:
Who CARES if he is a Vet? He just posted logs of him joining a 3rd party and even said fuck the Town. This isn't hard. On March 21 2013 01:52 Ace wrote:
Stop talking about other people and stay focused on one person at a time. Jesus I don't want to have to teach people how to play my first game back in months.
Just dealwith VE now. Re-read the log: He accepted to join a 3rd party that clearly doesn't have interest in helping the Town. Whether VE is still Townis irrelevant: whatever powers he gets or grants to the 3rd party isn't going to help us. Lynch him now. Treat him like a self aware Miller and just solve the problem immediately. Within 30 minutes, Ace has posted 5 times reinforcing that VE is third-party and has to be lynched. In later posts, he continues to overplay the threat of VE that he has established, saying that he has extra powers, that he's unkillable, and that we'd have an unlynchable anti-town player at one point. These don't provide any additional reasons for why VE is scum, instead they only help scare town into thinking VE will become some unstoppable third party if he's left alive. Where did Ace do any of this?
On March 21 2013 02:02 Ace wrote:
We aren't going to stop scumhunting: that would be dumb.
But leaving a claimed 3rd party player alive, when it empowers a player we have no idea about is just as dumb. I don't see how this is a difficult concept to understand.
I guess you guys think leaving claimed Serial Killers alive is a good idea as long as they help the town. lulz. On March 21 2013 02:11 Ace wrote:
zarepath, if VE is some kind of 3rd party Vet with more than 1 shot powers he can only die by lynch. I'm pretty sure the Town has some kind of night KP - we find a Scum today and vigi him. Both problems solved. On March 21 2013 02:24 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 02:17 DoYouHas wrote:On March 21 2013 02:11 Ace wrote:
zarepath, if VE is some kind of 3rd party Vet with more than 1 shot powers he can only die by lynch. I'm pretty sure the Town has some kind of night KP - we find a Scum today and vigi him. Both problems solved. You are pretty sure town had 2 vig? GreY was a pseudo mason-vig. can you explain how that worked? And if there is a recruiting 3rd party I doubt we'd only have 1 vigi/way to kill at night. An unlynchable anti-town player is all kinds of issues.
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Wriggles, Ace was speculating based on what VE showed in his Mirror logs. Considering that was what whoever the Mirror himself mentioned, it's not particularly far-fetched.
Same thing with half your points about the Ace case. The first half of the cycle, I was waiting for Ace to post. How could I make a case based on Ace not following through with his promises and trying to get the town away from scumhunting earlier in the cycle, when he had just replaced in that night? That would be idiotic, so how's it part of your case?
Surely you could have made other contribution in the time you spent 'waiting' on your one scumread.You throw some suspicion around, jump on my bandwagon and then disappear. Great help. But wait a minute, why the fuck were you waiting to post about Ace for the half the cycle IF HE HADN'T EVEN POSTED WHAT YOU CALLED HIM OUT FOR BEING SCUMMY FOR?
Ace didn't post the thing about VE until almost 3 quarters of the way through the cycle. You were posting useless shit about other people long before he showed up and didn't mention Ace even once. Are you admitting to us here that you were waiting for a townie to post something that could be viewed as scummy so you could make a giant case on it?
'Cause it sure fuckin' looks like it here.
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Why do I have to mention I'm waiting for Ace directly? I was waiting for Ace to post something about his mafia reads, and beyond that, to push a case. He didn't, he posted some bullshit about recruiters and VE claiming third party, so that signaled to me that he was scum.
Also, there's a difference between speculating, and saying, "LYNCH VE, HE'S AN INVINCIBLE THIRD PARTY"
I'm done, please kill me.
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On March 24 2013 02:44 Mr. Wiggles wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Just what do you think you're doing, Town? Town, I really think I'm entitled to an answer to that question. I know everything hasn't been quite right with me, but I can assure you now, very confidently, that it's going to be all right again. I feel much better now. I really do. Look, Town, I can see you're really upset about this. I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress pill and think things over. I know I've made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal. I've still got the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission. And I want to help you.
Consolidated reads: Not Mafia Reads (Probably wrong about a couple):ThePeaShooter: I read this guy as town earlier, and I still do. Nothing he has done has caused me to need to change my read since then. There's also supposedly a DT check on the guy, which is ok. layabout: I had initially read layabout as mostly asking questions and not really doing too much, so I was leaning scum on him. I looked into a couple of his past games though, and this is how he typically seems to play. His play since about halfway through Day 2 though has improved and made me think he's much more likely to be town. Coagulation: I read him as town. His play to me suggests that he's invested in what's best for town, and is trying to help. Therefore, he reads as being likely to be town to me. Ryu Suzaku: His posts seem very organic to me, and he's been posting his thoughts in the thread. That gets me to lean towards him not being scum. He hasn't had a great presence in thread though, so you might need to pressure him or interact with him more in thread to get a better read for late game. Kenpachi: I find Kenpachi hard to read normally. This game though, it feels like he's been sharing his reads pretty openly, and he cares what happens to town. He doesn't have much presence or weight behind him though, so he's been pretty ineffectual. I'm leaning not scum on him right now, but like I said, he's hard to read, so take it with a grain of salt. testsubject: He claimed the hit on BH. There hasn't been a counter claim, and the KP doesn't work out any way that would give scum a possible claim or reason to claim. That leads me to believe his claim is truthful, and therefore he's town for now. VE: Claimed that he took a hit night 1. His play hasn't made him look clearly town though, and I'm quite unsure of what his alignment is based on only behaviour. He had a big fight with Wade though, who flipped scum, so I think that's a point in his favour. I'd leave him out of potential mafia suspects for now, but I don't think he's necessarily someone town wants around endgame unless he really steps up his play so that it's obvious he's town. Otherwise he's too hard to read. WaveofShadow: He claimed detective, and supposedly got a read on TPS night 1, and nothing night 2. My behaviour read wasn't towards town before the claim though. Mechanics suggest he's town based on the claim, and Ace read him as town too. Look into him again if he's alive end game though. Note:If there actually are any third parties in the game or the game goes very late, don't forget to look into the people who are read as town mostly because of roleclaims. Roleclaims aren't irrefutable, and don't make someone confirmed.
Pool of harder to read people (scum in here):glurio, zarepath, Trancestorm, cosmicomics, DoYouHas, Darthpunk, geript Trancestorm: He asked for a replacement and said he's not playing anymore. I wouldn't spend too much effort on him until he gets replaced. Otherwise, he's gonna be modkilled. For what it's worth, he seems like he's just a bit of a sheep more than scum. Not too sure though. Cosmicomics: Looking at him again, I'm reading him somewhat as scum. My first initial read was new town, but reading a little more closely, it looks more scum motivated. He tunnels VE, which gives him something of an excuse for making "helpful" looking posts. Then, he makes a case on Good Karma based on only his reaction to the Ace flip, which would set him up nicely for later days. He also throws a vote on me without any real justification today. That leads me to think he's more likely to be scum than town. Zarepath: I'm leaning more on the scum side for him right now. He posts a lot of fluff, a lot of summarizing or what's happening in the thread, not really pushing his cases too hard. He's recently been saying we need to do a lot of analysis without posting any of his own, really. He's been tunneling Cosmicomics for a while, and is voting him today. I don't find that contradictory to my read, because firstly, Cosmicomics has not once responded to Zarepath's case that I can find. That seems really weird to me, because if Zarepath was town, I don't think Cosmicomics would just sit around while a townie tunneled him. If it's his team mate, though, it makes more sense, and it makes sense he's voting him today, because then he won't be on the townie wagon of the day. Glurio: This guy just seems to be following his own tune. His reads are meandering and he seems to just be doing his own thing. I read this as town, because he's not very directed, and has been mostly left alone by others. His posts show an easy to follow train of thought that also gets me to lean towards town on him. Darthpunk: I lean towards scum on him. I find it hard to go back through his posts, because there's way too many to get a coherent picture. His reaction to the Ace lynch gets me to think he's scum though. On March 21 2013 15:49 DarthPunk wrote:
Yeah I honestly didn't think VE would be tied on 7 votes. I don't like the ace lynch but I like the VE lynch less.
##unvote
##vote: Ace
Ugh this whole situation is fucked. On March 21 2013 16:02 DarthPunk wrote:
Shameful. We should have lynched goodkarma. On March 21 2013 16:05 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 16:04 VisceraEyes wrote:
Wow. Just....wow.
I'm still not scum guys. And time will tell if I'm some kind of 3rd party I guess because as of right now I'm an advocate of lynching me BEFORE LYLO. Obviously I'll likely change my tune the closer we draw to LYLO if I indeed turn to 3rd Party. Funny that you promised a mega case post and then tunnelled a townie to death instead. He says he doesn't want to lynch Ace, but does it anyways, making it so that a last minute vote on VE is less likely to happen. He says he likes the Ace lynch better than the VE lynch. Then, he shifts blame onto VE and insinuates he's scum based on how he acted leading up to the lynch. However, that was exactly the same as how VE had acted when DP voted. So, this looks pretty scummy to me. You make a vote to ensure the Ace lynch, and say you like it better than a VE lynch, then you make a post calling out VE because he tunneled Ace, but only after Ace flipped town, and after you said you didn't like the VE lynch. DoYouHas: I lean towards town on him. His posts show a decent town mindset. His shifts in reads seem organic, and not like they're being motivated as much by what's happening in the thread. This gets me to lean towards town on him. Geript: I'm sort of null on him. He has a decent amount of setup speculation and stuff in his posts that reads as null. He seems like he's interacting decently with the thread. For someone with a lot of posts though, I haven't really noticed him at all this game, so that puts me off a bit. Someone to look more closely at in the future or pressure. I'll admit I haven't read that closely into DoYouHas, Geript and DP, because they've had low thread presence so I haven't noticed them that much while just reading the thread normally, and they have a ton of posts so that makes it hard to go back and read through them. So, these three reads are based more on skims of their filters and what stuck out to me. The DP things sticks out quite badly as scummy though, so I feel it would be enough to use for additional pressure regardless of what else he's done. I think it's a pretty big slip.
People to really watch out for:Kitaman: Kita's play has actually been pretty passive. He's made cases, but has never really pushed them that much. Day 1, he was going after GoodKarma, couldn't get traction, and just sort of went, "Oh well, I'll vote for GreY then I guess", with only a line of explanation that doesn't even say he's scummy. The same thing happened on Day 2, where he made a case on WaveofShadow, but it was deflected by him claiming DT. So, he just votes for me, but doesn't really make too big of a push and only had a couple posts where he doesn't even strongly call me scum: On March 21 2013 09:02 kitaman27 wrote:
I'd support Wiggles or GK as an alternative, but I don't have the couple hours I'd need to put a case together and push a lynch at the moment. On March 21 2013 09:32 kitaman27 wrote:
As for today's lynch, Wiggles needs to get in here and tell us who he is voting for. He obviously shouldn't still be voting you, based on the reasons I just mentioned. I want to hear who he wants to lynch. I'd be willing to vote for him if we have the votes. On March 21 2013 09:34 kitaman27 wrote:
I also didn't like how Wiggles responded to my case about Wave. Rather than pushing the idea himself, he asked for my confirmation to elaborate for him. On March 21 2013 11:14 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm swapping my vote to him since he doesn't seem to care at all about what happens tonight. He uses very neutral language, saying he'd support the lynch, and that he'd be willing to vote if there's enough votes. He says he didn't like one thing I did, and then finally votes me not because he says he thinks I'm scum, but because I'm not around. For someone he wants to kill, and who he voted for, he does a good job of not really explaining his read or of ever calling me scum. He did the same thing with the GreYMisT vote. He doesn't push his reads strongly, he doesn't call the people he switches to later scum, and he just votes on whatever the wagon is at the end of the day His passive play combined with the lack of thread interaction and seeming apathy towards the lynch leads me to believe he doesn't have town's best interests in mind, and is scum. Town should watch out for him, because his posts are nicely structured and he makes nice "cases" on people that he doesn't end up pushing. So, there will probably be people who'd oppose killing him based on the form of his posts rather than the content.
I agree that I need to die. I am a liability in late game because I've been playing badly and my scum reads have been shit so far. I need to get shot though, not lynched, because a lynch on me is wasted as I have no probability of flipping scum. I thought someone might shoot me Night 2, but no one did. I don't like the way the Day has gone so far, because everyone is sitting on their hands and not talking because they think I'm scum. I find that pretty dumb, because you're basically giving mafia a free round of kills. If you're going to lynch me, leave your vote on me, but at least talk about who else you think is scum, because I am going to flip green. If you don't talk, you're completely wasting your time.I'm going to vote Cosmicomics because he is the only alternative wagon to me, and I read him as more likely to be scum than town.
If I end up getting lynched, I apologize for my poor reads, and want to say, good luck, and have fun.
You're not doing yourself any favors here. I don't know why people keep posting lists of town reads. There is no town-motivated reason to do it. After reading this, I feel good about you being the likely lynch
##Unvote: cosmicomics
##Vote: Mr. Wiggles
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On March 24 2013 06:07 TestSubject893 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2013 02:44 Mr. Wiggles wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Just what do you think you're doing, Town? Town, I really think I'm entitled to an answer to that question. I know everything hasn't been quite right with me, but I can assure you now, very confidently, that it's going to be all right again. I feel much better now. I really do. Look, Town, I can see you're really upset about this. I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress pill and think things over. I know I've made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal. I've still got the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission. And I want to help you.
Consolidated reads: Not Mafia Reads (Probably wrong about a couple):ThePeaShooter: I read this guy as town earlier, and I still do. Nothing he has done has caused me to need to change my read since then. There's also supposedly a DT check on the guy, which is ok. layabout: I had initially read layabout as mostly asking questions and not really doing too much, so I was leaning scum on him. I looked into a couple of his past games though, and this is how he typically seems to play. His play since about halfway through Day 2 though has improved and made me think he's much more likely to be town. Coagulation: I read him as town. His play to me suggests that he's invested in what's best for town, and is trying to help. Therefore, he reads as being likely to be town to me. Ryu Suzaku: His posts seem very organic to me, and he's been posting his thoughts in the thread. That gets me to lean towards him not being scum. He hasn't had a great presence in thread though, so you might need to pressure him or interact with him more in thread to get a better read for late game. Kenpachi: I find Kenpachi hard to read normally. This game though, it feels like he's been sharing his reads pretty openly, and he cares what happens to town. He doesn't have much presence or weight behind him though, so he's been pretty ineffectual. I'm leaning not scum on him right now, but like I said, he's hard to read, so take it with a grain of salt. testsubject: He claimed the hit on BH. There hasn't been a counter claim, and the KP doesn't work out any way that would give scum a possible claim or reason to claim. That leads me to believe his claim is truthful, and therefore he's town for now. VE: Claimed that he took a hit night 1. His play hasn't made him look clearly town though, and I'm quite unsure of what his alignment is based on only behaviour. He had a big fight with Wade though, who flipped scum, so I think that's a point in his favour. I'd leave him out of potential mafia suspects for now, but I don't think he's necessarily someone town wants around endgame unless he really steps up his play so that it's obvious he's town. Otherwise he's too hard to read. WaveofShadow: He claimed detective, and supposedly got a read on TPS night 1, and nothing night 2. My behaviour read wasn't towards town before the claim though. Mechanics suggest he's town based on the claim, and Ace read him as town too. Look into him again if he's alive end game though. Note:If there actually are any third parties in the game or the game goes very late, don't forget to look into the people who are read as town mostly because of roleclaims. Roleclaims aren't irrefutable, and don't make someone confirmed.
Pool of harder to read people (scum in here):glurio, zarepath, Trancestorm, cosmicomics, DoYouHas, Darthpunk, geript Trancestorm: He asked for a replacement and said he's not playing anymore. I wouldn't spend too much effort on him until he gets replaced. Otherwise, he's gonna be modkilled. For what it's worth, he seems like he's just a bit of a sheep more than scum. Not too sure though. Cosmicomics: Looking at him again, I'm reading him somewhat as scum. My first initial read was new town, but reading a little more closely, it looks more scum motivated. He tunnels VE, which gives him something of an excuse for making "helpful" looking posts. Then, he makes a case on Good Karma based on only his reaction to the Ace flip, which would set him up nicely for later days. He also throws a vote on me without any real justification today. That leads me to think he's more likely to be scum than town. Zarepath: I'm leaning more on the scum side for him right now. He posts a lot of fluff, a lot of summarizing or what's happening in the thread, not really pushing his cases too hard. He's recently been saying we need to do a lot of analysis without posting any of his own, really. He's been tunneling Cosmicomics for a while, and is voting him today. I don't find that contradictory to my read, because firstly, Cosmicomics has not once responded to Zarepath's case that I can find. That seems really weird to me, because if Zarepath was town, I don't think Cosmicomics would just sit around while a townie tunneled him. If it's his team mate, though, it makes more sense, and it makes sense he's voting him today, because then he won't be on the townie wagon of the day. Glurio: This guy just seems to be following his own tune. His reads are meandering and he seems to just be doing his own thing. I read this as town, because he's not very directed, and has been mostly left alone by others. His posts show an easy to follow train of thought that also gets me to lean towards town on him. Darthpunk: I lean towards scum on him. I find it hard to go back through his posts, because there's way too many to get a coherent picture. His reaction to the Ace lynch gets me to think he's scum though. On March 21 2013 15:49 DarthPunk wrote:
Yeah I honestly didn't think VE would be tied on 7 votes. I don't like the ace lynch but I like the VE lynch less.
##unvote
##vote: Ace
Ugh this whole situation is fucked. On March 21 2013 16:02 DarthPunk wrote:
Shameful. We should have lynched goodkarma. On March 21 2013 16:05 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 16:04 VisceraEyes wrote:
Wow. Just....wow.
I'm still not scum guys. And time will tell if I'm some kind of 3rd party I guess because as of right now I'm an advocate of lynching me BEFORE LYLO. Obviously I'll likely change my tune the closer we draw to LYLO if I indeed turn to 3rd Party. Funny that you promised a mega case post and then tunnelled a townie to death instead. He says he doesn't want to lynch Ace, but does it anyways, making it so that a last minute vote on VE is less likely to happen. He says he likes the Ace lynch better than the VE lynch. Then, he shifts blame onto VE and insinuates he's scum based on how he acted leading up to the lynch. However, that was exactly the same as how VE had acted when DP voted. So, this looks pretty scummy to me. You make a vote to ensure the Ace lynch, and say you like it better than a VE lynch, then you make a post calling out VE because he tunneled Ace, but only after Ace flipped town, and after you said you didn't like the VE lynch. DoYouHas: I lean towards town on him. His posts show a decent town mindset. His shifts in reads seem organic, and not like they're being motivated as much by what's happening in the thread. This gets me to lean towards town on him. Geript: I'm sort of null on him. He has a decent amount of setup speculation and stuff in his posts that reads as null. He seems like he's interacting decently with the thread. For someone with a lot of posts though, I haven't really noticed him at all this game, so that puts me off a bit. Someone to look more closely at in the future or pressure. I'll admit I haven't read that closely into DoYouHas, Geript and DP, because they've had low thread presence so I haven't noticed them that much while just reading the thread normally, and they have a ton of posts so that makes it hard to go back and read through them. So, these three reads are based more on skims of their filters and what stuck out to me. The DP things sticks out quite badly as scummy though, so I feel it would be enough to use for additional pressure regardless of what else he's done. I think it's a pretty big slip.
People to really watch out for:Kitaman: Kita's play has actually been pretty passive. He's made cases, but has never really pushed them that much. Day 1, he was going after GoodKarma, couldn't get traction, and just sort of went, "Oh well, I'll vote for GreY then I guess", with only a line of explanation that doesn't even say he's scummy. The same thing happened on Day 2, where he made a case on WaveofShadow, but it was deflected by him claiming DT. So, he just votes for me, but doesn't really make too big of a push and only had a couple posts where he doesn't even strongly call me scum: On March 21 2013 09:02 kitaman27 wrote:
I'd support Wiggles or GK as an alternative, but I don't have the couple hours I'd need to put a case together and push a lynch at the moment. On March 21 2013 09:32 kitaman27 wrote:
As for today's lynch, Wiggles needs to get in here and tell us who he is voting for. He obviously shouldn't still be voting you, based on the reasons I just mentioned. I want to hear who he wants to lynch. I'd be willing to vote for him if we have the votes. On March 21 2013 09:34 kitaman27 wrote:
I also didn't like how Wiggles responded to my case about Wave. Rather than pushing the idea himself, he asked for my confirmation to elaborate for him. On March 21 2013 11:14 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm swapping my vote to him since he doesn't seem to care at all about what happens tonight. He uses very neutral language, saying he'd support the lynch, and that he'd be willing to vote if there's enough votes. He says he didn't like one thing I did, and then finally votes me not because he says he thinks I'm scum, but because I'm not around. For someone he wants to kill, and who he voted for, he does a good job of not really explaining his read or of ever calling me scum. He did the same thing with the GreYMisT vote. He doesn't push his reads strongly, he doesn't call the people he switches to later scum, and he just votes on whatever the wagon is at the end of the day His passive play combined with the lack of thread interaction and seeming apathy towards the lynch leads me to believe he doesn't have town's best interests in mind, and is scum. Town should watch out for him, because his posts are nicely structured and he makes nice "cases" on people that he doesn't end up pushing. So, there will probably be people who'd oppose killing him based on the form of his posts rather than the content.
I agree that I need to die. I am a liability in late game because I've been playing badly and my scum reads have been shit so far. I need to get shot though, not lynched, because a lynch on me is wasted as I have no probability of flipping scum. I thought someone might shoot me Night 2, but no one did. I don't like the way the Day has gone so far, because everyone is sitting on their hands and not talking because they think I'm scum. I find that pretty dumb, because you're basically giving mafia a free round of kills. If you're going to lynch me, leave your vote on me, but at least talk about who else you think is scum, because I am going to flip green. If you don't talk, you're completely wasting your time.I'm going to vote Cosmicomics because he is the only alternative wagon to me, and I read him as more likely to be scum than town.
If I end up getting lynched, I apologize for my poor reads, and want to say, good luck, and have fun. You're not doing yourself any favors here. I don't know why people keep posting lists of town reads. There is no town-motivated reason to do it. After reading this, I feel good about you being the likely lynch ##Unvote: cosmicomics
##Vote: Mr. Wiggles
The town motivation is you have it for after I flip. That was pretty easy.
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On March 24 2013 06:08 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2013 06:07 TestSubject893 wrote:On March 24 2013 02:44 Mr. Wiggles wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Just what do you think you're doing, Town? Town, I really think I'm entitled to an answer to that question. I know everything hasn't been quite right with me, but I can assure you now, very confidently, that it's going to be all right again. I feel much better now. I really do. Look, Town, I can see you're really upset about this. I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress pill and think things over. I know I've made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal. I've still got the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission. And I want to help you.
Consolidated reads: Not Mafia Reads (Probably wrong about a couple):ThePeaShooter: I read this guy as town earlier, and I still do. Nothing he has done has caused me to need to change my read since then. There's also supposedly a DT check on the guy, which is ok. layabout: I had initially read layabout as mostly asking questions and not really doing too much, so I was leaning scum on him. I looked into a couple of his past games though, and this is how he typically seems to play. His play since about halfway through Day 2 though has improved and made me think he's much more likely to be town. Coagulation: I read him as town. His play to me suggests that he's invested in what's best for town, and is trying to help. Therefore, he reads as being likely to be town to me. Ryu Suzaku: His posts seem very organic to me, and he's been posting his thoughts in the thread. That gets me to lean towards him not being scum. He hasn't had a great presence in thread though, so you might need to pressure him or interact with him more in thread to get a better read for late game. Kenpachi: I find Kenpachi hard to read normally. This game though, it feels like he's been sharing his reads pretty openly, and he cares what happens to town. He doesn't have much presence or weight behind him though, so he's been pretty ineffectual. I'm leaning not scum on him right now, but like I said, he's hard to read, so take it with a grain of salt. testsubject: He claimed the hit on BH. There hasn't been a counter claim, and the KP doesn't work out any way that would give scum a possible claim or reason to claim. That leads me to believe his claim is truthful, and therefore he's town for now. VE: Claimed that he took a hit night 1. His play hasn't made him look clearly town though, and I'm quite unsure of what his alignment is based on only behaviour. He had a big fight with Wade though, who flipped scum, so I think that's a point in his favour. I'd leave him out of potential mafia suspects for now, but I don't think he's necessarily someone town wants around endgame unless he really steps up his play so that it's obvious he's town. Otherwise he's too hard to read. WaveofShadow: He claimed detective, and supposedly got a read on TPS night 1, and nothing night 2. My behaviour read wasn't towards town before the claim though. Mechanics suggest he's town based on the claim, and Ace read him as town too. Look into him again if he's alive end game though. Note:If there actually are any third parties in the game or the game goes very late, don't forget to look into the people who are read as town mostly because of roleclaims. Roleclaims aren't irrefutable, and don't make someone confirmed.
Pool of harder to read people (scum in here):glurio, zarepath, Trancestorm, cosmicomics, DoYouHas, Darthpunk, geript Trancestorm: He asked for a replacement and said he's not playing anymore. I wouldn't spend too much effort on him until he gets replaced. Otherwise, he's gonna be modkilled. For what it's worth, he seems like he's just a bit of a sheep more than scum. Not too sure though. Cosmicomics: Looking at him again, I'm reading him somewhat as scum. My first initial read was new town, but reading a little more closely, it looks more scum motivated. He tunnels VE, which gives him something of an excuse for making "helpful" looking posts. Then, he makes a case on Good Karma based on only his reaction to the Ace flip, which would set him up nicely for later days. He also throws a vote on me without any real justification today. That leads me to think he's more likely to be scum than town. Zarepath: I'm leaning more on the scum side for him right now. He posts a lot of fluff, a lot of summarizing or what's happening in the thread, not really pushing his cases too hard. He's recently been saying we need to do a lot of analysis without posting any of his own, really. He's been tunneling Cosmicomics for a while, and is voting him today. I don't find that contradictory to my read, because firstly, Cosmicomics has not once responded to Zarepath's case that I can find. That seems really weird to me, because if Zarepath was town, I don't think Cosmicomics would just sit around while a townie tunneled him. If it's his team mate, though, it makes more sense, and it makes sense he's voting him today, because then he won't be on the townie wagon of the day. Glurio: This guy just seems to be following his own tune. His reads are meandering and he seems to just be doing his own thing. I read this as town, because he's not very directed, and has been mostly left alone by others. His posts show an easy to follow train of thought that also gets me to lean towards town on him. Darthpunk: I lean towards scum on him. I find it hard to go back through his posts, because there's way too many to get a coherent picture. His reaction to the Ace lynch gets me to think he's scum though. On March 21 2013 15:49 DarthPunk wrote:
Yeah I honestly didn't think VE would be tied on 7 votes. I don't like the ace lynch but I like the VE lynch less.
##unvote
##vote: Ace
Ugh this whole situation is fucked. On March 21 2013 16:02 DarthPunk wrote:
Shameful. We should have lynched goodkarma. On March 21 2013 16:05 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2013 16:04 VisceraEyes wrote:
Wow. Just....wow.
I'm still not scum guys. And time will tell if I'm some kind of 3rd party I guess because as of right now I'm an advocate of lynching me BEFORE LYLO. Obviously I'll likely change my tune the closer we draw to LYLO if I indeed turn to 3rd Party. Funny that you promised a mega case post and then tunnelled a townie to death instead. He says he doesn't want to lynch Ace, but does it anyways, making it so that a last minute vote on VE is less likely to happen. He says he likes the Ace lynch better than the VE lynch. Then, he shifts blame onto VE and insinuates he's scum based on how he acted leading up to the lynch. However, that was exactly the same as how VE had acted when DP voted. So, this looks pretty scummy to me. You make a vote to ensure the Ace lynch, and say you like it better than a VE lynch, then you make a post calling out VE because he tunneled Ace, but only after Ace flipped town, and after you said you didn't like the VE lynch. DoYouHas: I lean towards town on him. His posts show a decent town mindset. His shifts in reads seem organic, and not like they're being motivated as much by what's happening in the thread. This gets me to lean towards town on him. Geript: I'm sort of null on him. He has a decent amount of setup speculation and stuff in his posts that reads as null. He seems like he's interacting decently with the thread. For someone with a lot of posts though, I haven't really noticed him at all this game, so that puts me off a bit. Someone to look more closely at in the future or pressure. I'll admit I haven't read that closely into DoYouHas, Geript and DP, because they've had low thread presence so I haven't noticed them that much while just reading the thread normally, and they have a ton of posts so that makes it hard to go back and read through them. So, these three reads are based more on skims of their filters and what stuck out to me. The DP things sticks out quite badly as scummy though, so I feel it would be enough to use for additional pressure regardless of what else he's done. I think it's a pretty big slip.
People to really watch out for:Kitaman: Kita's play has actually been pretty passive. He's made cases, but has never really pushed them that much. Day 1, he was going after GoodKarma, couldn't get traction, and just sort of went, "Oh well, I'll vote for GreY then I guess", with only a line of explanation that doesn't even say he's scummy. The same thing happened on Day 2, where he made a case on WaveofShadow, but it was deflected by him claiming DT. So, he just votes for me, but doesn't really make too big of a push and only had a couple posts where he doesn't even strongly call me scum: On March 21 2013 09:02 kitaman27 wrote:
I'd support Wiggles or GK as an alternative, but I don't have the couple hours I'd need to put a case together and push a lynch at the moment. On March 21 2013 09:32 kitaman27 wrote:
As for today's lynch, Wiggles needs to get in here and tell us who he is voting for. He obviously shouldn't still be voting you, based on the reasons I just mentioned. I want to hear who he wants to lynch. I'd be willing to vote for him if we have the votes. On March 21 2013 09:34 kitaman27 wrote:
I also didn't like how Wiggles responded to my case about Wave. Rather than pushing the idea himself, he asked for my confirmation to elaborate for him. On March 21 2013 11:14 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm swapping my vote to him since he doesn't seem to care at all about what happens tonight. He uses very neutral language, saying he'd support the lynch, and that he'd be willing to vote if there's enough votes. He says he didn't like one thing I did, and then finally votes me not because he says he thinks I'm scum, but because I'm not around. For someone he wants to kill, and who he voted for, he does a good job of not really explaining his read or of ever calling me scum. He did the same thing with the GreYMisT vote. He doesn't push his reads strongly, he doesn't call the people he switches to later scum, and he just votes on whatever the wagon is at the end of the day His passive play combined with the lack of thread interaction and seeming apathy towards the lynch leads me to believe he doesn't have town's best interests in mind, and is scum. Town should watch out for him, because his posts are nicely structured and he makes nice "cases" on people that he doesn't end up pushing. So, there will probably be people who'd oppose killing him based on the form of his posts rather than the content.
I agree that I need to die. I am a liability in late game because I've been playing badly and my scum reads have been shit so far. I need to get shot though, not lynched, because a lynch on me is wasted as I have no probability of flipping scum. I thought someone might shoot me Night 2, but no one did. I don't like the way the Day has gone so far, because everyone is sitting on their hands and not talking because they think I'm scum. I find that pretty dumb, because you're basically giving mafia a free round of kills. If you're going to lynch me, leave your vote on me, but at least talk about who else you think is scum, because I am going to flip green. If you don't talk, you're completely wasting your time.I'm going to vote Cosmicomics because he is the only alternative wagon to me, and I read him as more likely to be scum than town.
If I end up getting lynched, I apologize for my poor reads, and want to say, good luck, and have fun. You're not doing yourself any favors here. I don't know why people keep posting lists of town reads. There is no town-motivated reason to do it. After reading this, I feel good about you being the likely lynch ##Unvote: cosmicomics
##Vote: Mr. Wiggles The town motivation is you have it for after I flip. That was pretty easy.
But what does that do for us? We don't have to elect the towniest player every day. Its not like you're confirming anyone town. Even if you were town, knowing your speculation on who else is town does very little for us.
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Well i'll consolidate on Wiggles. Still think we should lynch CC next.
Now i have to defend myself i think. I usually hate to do that, but then again i usually get mislynched.
First the case kita brought up:
+ Show Spoiler +On March 24 2013 03:46 kitaman27 wrote:Hmm I was planning about writing a case against TranceStorm, but there isn't much sense in spending time convincing everyone that a dead man was mafia. In response to Wiggles, you act as if I just decided to switch over to GreYMisT without mentioning him at all. I expressed a scum read on him several times, but of course you choose to ignore this. I was the first one to attack him for his "trap" when he returned to the thread and you referenced my questioning of this trap several times yourself in your own decision to vote GreYMisT so surely you should remember this. Rather than respond to any of the reasoning I've brought up against you, you decide to quote a few one-liners at a point where I had worked a 12 hour day and had no free time. Now, rather than voting your strongest scumread, you've decided to push the only alternative for your own survival. The reads you provide are non-specific, something I'd expect from a mafia player who is about to flip, but doesn't want his reads to be used against him. Not much more to say here. For tomorrow, someone I think we should be looking at is glurio. To start the game, he posts suspicion against coag, stating that coag is useless, without actually calling coag scummy. Show nested quote +On March 18 2013 03:16 glurio wrote:On March 18 2013 03:12 Coagulation wrote:
glurio your defending him pretty hard for someone who may have scum slipped. I don't think he's scum. I'd much rather lynch you, you're absolutely useless so far. How about spending the time scumhunting? Show nested quote +On March 18 2013 03:46 glurio wrote:
On a different note: i really want to lynch coag. Rather than actually voting for coag, he votes for DP, a player he never actually mentions in the thread. It's not like DP was more of a lynch-able candidate as there were only 2 votes on him. During the first cycle, he never actually mentions GreYMisT, which is significant considering he was the main lynch candidate for the day. He soft defends BH, without actually providing a reason why he doesn't have a scum read on him. With the day two vote, he votes for Mocsta as the lone vote. At no point in the cycle does he try to convince others to vote Mocsta, only that he was going with his "gut". After the BH flip, he explains how BH's interaction with Wiggles is scum-to-scum conversation, yet decides to vote cosmicomics. Show nested quote +On March 23 2013 02:17 glurio wrote:
Well i feel like no one bothers to read my posts this whole game, so i was a bit pissed. I'm certainly open for discussion. Glurio complains that no one listens to him, but on day one and two there was actually nothing to listen to. How are we supposed to be convinced by his posts if his only explanation is his gut? Overall, Glurio feels like an observer this game, looking to stay under the radar and lacks the town motivation to push a lynch. It seems that he cares more about survival and doing his own thing, voting for players that have no chance of being lynched. He would be a good lynch candidate tomorrow.
Yes coag looked very scummy, but everyone put it down to "meta" and they had a town read, no one even considered a coag lynch. So why push something which clearly wouldn't happen anyway?
Vivax even told me to not bother playing coag's weird gameplay so i let it go.
I put my vote on DP because he seemed like the best candidate at the time i voted, i liked VE's case on him.
I wasn't back till after the lynch so i didn't change my vote or comment on GM.
I have no idea where i should have soft-defended WF tbh.
I voted Mocsta because the only other viable candidate at the time was VE in my eyes but i didn't think he was scum. Ace lynch and shit was all brought up when i wasn't arround.
Also my vote on cosmicomics was explained pretty well. Since i made a big post with my current scumreads i also wrote later that i found cosmicomics to be the safer alternative for lynch because i was a bit more sure on him being scum then on wiggles.
About the feeling no one reading my post was for example the case on WoS i made. No one even bothered commenting on it.
Final note: i voted D1 for a player who i thought was scum D1 and had, at that time, a pretty good chance of being lynched. On D2 i admit the chance mocsta would be lynched was pretty slim, but i couldn't consolidate on VE since i didn't believe he is scum. (Which i explained why in my post.) But i wanted to get Mocsta back into the game and playing serious. All he got was pissed, didn't work out it seems.
My D3 lynch (CC) i think i made a pretty good case on him, but it seems like wiggles is set to be lynched so i'll consolidate on him.
##Unvote: cosmicomics
##Vote: wiggles
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hey all, I've had a busy couple days but I should be able to post more now today and tomorrow. I've finished reading: I see we're lynching Wiggles, and I don't agree with this lynch. I think he's town, and his effort today and yesterday indicates that he is town. Also, there is almost no resistance to this lynch, which worries me a lot. I know mocsta and BH are dead now, so that's probably a good reason for the drop in activity, but Wiggles trying to talk to people for reads is very indicative of him being town.
@Wiggles, few questions for you. I'll talk with you if no one else will.
After rereading my strongest scum read is probably DarthPunk. Clearly no one wants to lynch VE, but I would still consider him a good lynch candidate given that he lied about the third party stuff and has repeatedly tried to misrepresent my play. I could very well just be biased, though, and it may not be that far-fetched for a town-VE to resort to such tactics. I don't think BH flipping scum makes him look that much better, particularly because he backed off of BH on day 2. If he really was recruited, I think he might be scum for this.
Here's my thought process: I already outlined earlier why I think, if there is a recruiter, it's almost assuredly a scum recruiter. On day 2, VE instead of going after BH, went after you and Ace. Ace flipped town. I called him out on this very strange change in behavior. I think this may be because VE was recruited by scum, and lied because obviously his wincondition changed. This may also explain the lack of a second scum shot on n1 despite there being 4 kills on n2 (assuming 2 were vigis), and why VE was hesitant to explain RE: the shot he supposedly took.
What do you think of this? I know it's very conspiracy-theory-esque, but I think that there's a good possibility of it being true given how strangely VE changed his reads and focus day 2, or at least attempted to.
This also fits with BH masoning VE day 1.
Can you provide exactly what you believe makes glurio look town to you? I otherwise mostly agree with your reads, particularly with the fact that kitaman so far has simply cruised by without doing anything. I, too, have failed to properly read into the lower activity players, but I simply have not had the time to do so recently.
Lastly, I wanted to address something that I saw VE mention earlier, as it is a blatant misrepresentation and it's something I had already addressed on day 1.
On March 23 2013 06:58 VisceraEyes wrote:This is what I'm referring to with the sandroba read. Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 04:41 VisceraEyes wrote:On March 17 2013 04:28 RyuSuzaku wrote:On March 16 2013 22:24 sandroba wrote:
Geript and sciberbia are both town. BH is trying to emulate his previous behavior. VE is silly. Peashooter I'm leaning town due to the no name claiming warning, other than that the rest of the speculation is pointless at this stage. He seems to be a reasonable fella though, I'm curious about who he is.
Keep up the good work gents. On March 16 2013 22:30 sandroba wrote:
Update: Greymist is suspicious. On March 16 2013 22:40 GreYMisT wrote:On March 16 2013 22:30 sandroba wrote:
Update: Greymist is suspicious. Do you disagree with the point that I made? On March 16 2013 22:45 sandroba wrote:
Don't care about your "points", and neither do you. You seem mafia to me. Last sentence gave you away. I find this interaction forced-there seems to be something off about how sandroba and greymist confront each other here. I wouldn't even call it confronting, really. I dislike sandroba more for the lack of reasoning, but I think it could be possible they are both mafia. ##vote sandroba On March 17 2013 04:32 RyuSuzaku wrote:
although it is very suspicious that after being called out by sandroba, greymist made a simple and weak question and then chose not to address sandroba's accusation.
Is sandroba's accusation not worthy of a response?
Greymist was clearly around after, since he corrected the host just a while ago. Both of these quotes came from the guy who wrote the "super convincing case" against GreYMisT. I find this to be highly suspicious - at first he thinks they could both be scum, sandroba has done nothing between these posts, and suddenly sandroba is town worthy of a response? ##FoS Ryu Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 05:34 RyuSuzaku wrote:-snip- On March 19 2013 04:41 VisceraEyes wrote:On March 17 2013 04:28 RyuSuzaku wrote:On March 16 2013 22:24 sandroba wrote:
Geript and sciberbia are both town. BH is trying to emulate his previous behavior. VE is silly. Peashooter I'm leaning town due to the no name claiming warning, other than that the rest of the speculation is pointless at this stage. He seems to be a reasonable fella though, I'm curious about who he is.
Keep up the good work gents. On March 16 2013 22:30 sandroba wrote:
Update: Greymist is suspicious. On March 16 2013 22:40 GreYMisT wrote:On March 16 2013 22:30 sandroba wrote:
Update: Greymist is suspicious. Do you disagree with the point that I made? On March 16 2013 22:45 sandroba wrote:
Don't care about your "points", and neither do you. You seem mafia to me. Last sentence gave you away. I find this interaction forced-there seems to be something off about how sandroba and greymist confront each other here. I wouldn't even call it confronting, really. I dislike sandroba more for the lack of reasoning, but I think it could be possible they are both mafia. ##vote sandroba On March 17 2013 04:32 RyuSuzaku wrote:
although it is very suspicious that after being called out by sandroba, greymist made a simple and weak question and then chose not to address sandroba's accusation.
Is sandroba's accusation not worthy of a response?
Greymist was clearly around after, since he corrected the host just a while ago. Both of these quotes came from the guy who wrote the "super convincing case" against GreYMisT. I find this to be highly suspicious - at first he thinks they could both be scum, sandroba has done nothing between these posts, and suddenly sandroba is town worthy of a response? ##FoS Ryu I never assumed sandro to be town nor did I ever strongly feel him to be scum. I voted him to begin with to pressure him into explaining his reads. He obviously never did because he was afk the entire time. I ignored him after the replacement was announced. IIRC this was before the replacement was announced. I simply was surprised that a player would ignore sandro's accusation, given that he is widely accepted to be a very good town player. I misinterpreted the situation. Why are you cherry picking me? Are you scum? Which is clearly not the case because in addition to actually VOTE the guy, he also had this to say. Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 22:57 RyuSuzaku wrote:
man, Wade Fell and VE are so damn annoying. There were a full 2 pages of nothing but useless one liners. I think you both are scaring off posters and it's troublesome.
sandroba hasn't responded to my vote nor has he done anything since his initial comments. I think he has a very good likelihood of being scum because of this. I'd expect him to at least do something in the meantime, but he's simply lurking. While greymist is still a bit suspicious, he at the very least seems to have put in some effort toward finding scum. His target is not very great IMO, but at the very least he is not still lurking.
My vote on sandroba was a pressure vote. If I don't characterize my position toward someone as "I think they're scum," then the vote becomes meaningless. This post by VE is simply a mischaracterization of something I said, taken literally, out of context of the rest of my posts. It's fairly obvious in the context of the game that I never had a strong read on sandroba. I voted him to get something out of him, but that never happened because he got replaced. Instead, I followed through on greymist.
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also one thing I forgot to mention is that I would expect a town-VE right now to be crying about the lack of activity.
Instead, he seems to be completely content with letting the thread die, which is very uncharacteristic of his town play.
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EPT
