EPTWhat do you make of the risk having a nuke but not nuking and not being mentioned by slOosh and all that surrounding business?
Personality Mafia 2 - Page 185
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
What do you make of the risk having a nuke but not nuking and not being mentioned by slOosh and all that surrounding business? | ||
|
Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On March 15 2013 11:05 Vivax wrote: The timing to say this is pretty scummy given you've almost not been pushing anything this day. The timing to say this is scummy if Cora flips town, that is. | ||
|
Vivax
21960 Posts
Remember, I didn't use any powers yesterday. This is not a lie. Darth Punk might or might not be scum. | ||
|
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On March 16 2013 06:41 marvellosity wrote: Sorry, headed home.ok austin, I like that risk stuff a lot more. It's actually provided me with some fresh insight (no offence to your previous posts :p) What do you make of the risk having a nuke but not nuking and not being mentioned by slOosh and all that surrounding business? Eh. Foolishness and Vivax already had nukes. 3 scummers being handed nukes overnight (i'm not counting crossfire here), they know SOMETHING is up. Surely there's no power out there that just generates the power to nuke that much of the thread in a single night. Probably no need to fire all three off at targets you want to kill then. Beyond that, it's all pure speculation. Like, slOosh knows they aren't real and is testing people. But in sending them ALL to scum suspects, scum isn't just gonna go "OH HEY NUKES!" and fire them all off. I really like the thought process, and the explanation of the plan from slOosh. But only targeting people you find scummy makes it more likely they figure SOMETHING is up, and can do whatever they want to muck up your results. If nothing else, risk drastically less active since the nuke business. Don't fire nuke --> he comes out looking townie --> byebye risk. All that says "nothing definitive." And in typing that out, it weakens my crossfire read because, again, scum aren't entirely in the dark. Town doesn't know that the first nuke is fake, that someone didn't have a nuke as part of their role, etc. Scum gets a bunch overnight, something's up. Grrrrrrrr. | ||
|
Vivax
21960 Posts
| ||
|
Vivax
21960 Posts
Makes sense that a townie will fire the nuke much more eagerly and with no fear of consequences, maybe testing reactions first like I did. This reactions can be explained from all points of view for those who fired. On the other hand someone imagining or knowing it's fake will use it to look better if he's scum, or not use it at all. Since it makes much more sense for scum to not believe that the nukes are real. And this is an important point I didn't consider properly until austin brought it up. But not firing it at all? Did risk simply not fall for it? Didn't he want to draw attention or explain himself? Was the "socially accepted" target Foolish maybe town, in truth? Or was he simply a careful guy. Also, SlOosh didn't mention risk at first I think, when he first talked about the nukes he gave out. But well, writing this it shows it actually is just a bunch of WIFOM one can't really get around. It's probably better to not include the nukes in the reasoning. However, I have the feeling marv never really bought the nuke story when I confronted him with it. Mainly cause he kept it cool when I threatened him to shoot him. I feel like he knew what was up. | ||
|
slOosh
3291 Posts
We should lynch stutters695 tomorrow. On March 07 2013 07:45 Stutters695 wrote: Any start date works for me. Stoked for this. Let's start by looking at his pregame post. Pregame? Yes. I've learnt from the amazing Qatol that it is possible to use pregame material as information source. Take note of his enthusiasm as we dive in his filter. "Pushing Crossfire" On March 12 2013 01:42 Stutters695 wrote: Well I was going you'd guys get who I received but apparently not. I rolled Kenpachi. I'll take it more seriously though. I want joking about XFire though, nearly everything else was worthless trolling since that seemed to be his MO. On March 12 2013 02:00 Stutters695 wrote: Right now crossfire. This feels just like his mtg2 play without the scum claim due to different mechanics. I did miss the last ten pages or so due to sleep so I'm going to catch up on those now but I'd vote cross 100% right now. On March 12 2013 02:56 Stutters695 wrote: I don't think either are as sure as Crossfire but I'd definitely go Sloosh if people can't be convinced of Cross. Bugs I think we can definitely get something if value out of. On March 12 2013 03:26 Stutters695 wrote: I'm aware of that sloosh but here's what I take issue with: you haven't pushed him at all until recently (outside of one post) and you haven't said anything else. If you had spent all your time pushing him I'd understand but you haven't, you didn't weigh in on my blatant trolling, bugs noncommittal posting or Crossfires useless posts. Please tell us what you think about anyone but Yamato instead of coasting on something anyone reading v the thread noticed. And there's contradiction #1. He seems very certain that crossfire is scum, but he never pushes it himself. In the third quote he speaks as if he has put in effort and people aren't listening, which isn't true. He has put no effort in trying to convince people. The fourth quote indicates he is aware of how someone should play, that you should be pushing scumreads, and that if I were pushing my scumread then my scummy behavior would come out townie. So he knows that townies should be pushing reads. Funny, because he is accusing me of the exact same thing he is doing and calling me scum for. In light of his pregame excitement there is a total mismatch on finding such a surefire scum but not doing anything about it. "High level play" On March 12 2013 02:56 Stutters695 wrote: Sloosh I've never played with period but his few posts are so safe it's unreal. If he's wrong about Yamato he's fine because it still makes sense to lynch and if he's right he gets huge town cred for nothing. I saw someone said this is what he does so I wouldn't be adverse to a policy lynch or vig shot. I don't think either are as sure as Crossfire but I'd definitely go Sloosh if people can't be convinced of Cross. Bugs I think we can definitely get something if value out of. I've never played with stutters, or if he has he never made an impression on me, but from general feel of his filter and his post count it seems like he is a newer player getting his feet wet. He makes a comment that my posts are safe - very strange because if I recall correctly, I was the first and only one to shout this out when it happened. If by safe he meant lurking, trying to slip by undetected, it would be demonstrably wrong. It would be the way I would think a newer player uses the word safe. Instead, look at how he uses it. If I'm wrong, then I get away with it because I'm punishing bad play, so I'm culpable of high level scum play. If I'm right, then I am getting town cred for doing nothing. So ... the conclusion is I'm either really good scum lynching town, or scum bussing a friend scum, or town who got scum lynched but doesn't deserve any credit? What kind of logic is this? It's twisty logic that wants to push the idea that I am scum without the proper evidence / thought process to back it up. That's something mafia do. They try to make up stuff about why someone is scum, but because of the burden of knowledge, they can't do it naturally, as we see in this case. Unnatural ... everything On March 15 2013 02:07 Stutters695 wrote: Foolishness: I'm going to read some of his past games but I'm not sure I buy his trap. It's really his only post of value (aside from his meta analysis on Vivax based off of one of his scum games). He makes decent points but essentially all he said on Yamato was the vig shot was anti-town and so was the disappearing. His crossfire case is a bit better but again his whole case is based around an action and associations. If Yamato or cross flips town then everything in that post is random conjecture without any proof and he'll still have contributed nothing. He might make these types of cases all the time but I need to check it. I'm leaning scum but not my first choice. My gut tells me town on Marv. He saw the same things on Cross that I saw d1 and really seemed to be the only other person really pushing for Cross when it was headed towards WBG around 24h in. Through his filter I don't see nearly as much jumping around as people say (he's jumped between his top targets which i don't remember him doing quite so much but he's got reasoning behind it). What? Doing a ctrl+F on marv's filter, there was no use of meta in his analysis of crossfire. So why the heck is Foolishness' case poor because it is based on action and associations, but marv's case good? It's not like marv used meta in his case, so I'm assuming it would file under actions? And if a big name player came in with a case on crossfire, wouldn't you be glad? Instead stutters casually dismisses it as if he understands what's really up, as if he knows what constitutes a good case and what doesn't. I'm trying to type this paragraph and I can't even put into words how unnatural this is. He says Foolishness is not his first scum choice (not a conclusive but a reinforcing tell), and it's not marv either. So by conclusion it must be crossfire right? Well why is he starting to undermine Foolishness' case based on cross flipping town? What kind of zen level play is he pulling off? The more simple explanation is that scum Stutters wants to be on the right side of the lynch but has to make up stuff to try to do that. Unnatural. Scum. p.s. He reinforces the idea that he was "really pushing for cross" when my first point shows that he doesn't really. Inconsistent role usage On March 16 2013 01:46 Stutters695 wrote: only issue with that list is I'm not scum. I can see where you're coming from though. Anyway since I told the person I have to agree with in order to use the 1kp this cell has, looks like you picked a good target in your message, let's go with that ##vote: Vivax On March 16 2013 05:21 Stutters695 wrote: Town cross post count usually does seem really similar to mine. His complete lack of any content is what makes him scum, he's just more involved as town. On March 16 2013 05:51 Stutters695 wrote: The quality should show you something is wrong. I'd rather lynch sloosh over him just because if sloosh is scum it essentially confirms Cross as scum since the nuke would be his only saving grace. Still thinks crossfire is scum, still doesn't push the idea, chooses to shoot vivax first (why not crossfire?), and only when focused upon becomes very complaisant and switch it to Foolishness. And then there is some ... excuse that it might not work out because his buddy needs to vote otherwise. On March 16 2013 02:56 Stutters695 wrote: Votes are done via PM. First time he votes vivax in thread, but doesn't do it with foolishness. Some inconsistency to his fake story. So yes. There is my final case. If I'm wrong then my reads are probably worthless at this point. If I'm right I have a good follow up lynch candidate (someone people think is town!). The end. | ||
|
slOosh
3291 Posts
I characterize stutters as a newer player, excited pregame but no excitement after game starts, whose thought processes' fit more aligned with a very mature mafia player, i.e. is unnatural. | ||
|
Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On March 16 2013 07:38 slOosh wrote: Uhh I probably should have did a proper final edit instead of making many little edits, so a couple of sentences may seem leapish. An underlying thought through the case is (may or may not be explicit I edited a lot): I characterize stutters as a newer player, excited pregame but no excitement after game starts, whose thought processes' fit more aligned with a very mature mafia player, i.e. is unnatural. his meta you do not know his thoughts from a townie do flow his play is crap but he gets a bad rap just because he is a little slow | ||
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
| ||
|
slOosh
3291 Posts
On March 16 2013 07:42 Promethelax wrote: his meta you do not know his thoughts from a townie do flow his play is crap but he gets a bad rap just because he is a little slow ? If he is more of a newer player than it is more disturbing the things he says. | ||
|
Vivax
21960 Posts
| ||
|
Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On March 16 2013 07:53 slOosh wrote: ? If he is more of a newer player than it is more disturbing the things he says. he isn't that new is my point to you I believe this game is number seven go read YAN, where on the dumb-o-meter he scored an eleven the scum I don't see in his stew. | ||
|
HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
| ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On March 15 2013 10:30 supersoft wrote: Fulllist would be like that: supersoft BloodyC0bbler V Kurumi v VisceraEyes V austinmcc Acrofales yamato77 Dandel Ion marvellosity V Ver V strongandbig Oatsmaster Promethelax Vivax Mocsta iamperfection Stutters695 HiroPro (if foolish is town. Kill him) slOosh v Crossfire99 risk.nuke v prplhz v Foolishness V cDgCorazon looks really balanced and fair. + Show Spoiler + V/v is Vet. No offense to anyone intendet. Vet doesn't necessarily mean good in every game, but experienced. I don't actually have that much time later, so I'm going to post brief thoughts now in case for some reason I die overnight. I mostly agree with this list, with a few exceptions. iamp should be up a level in non-italic, Ver/DP should be about null for the moment, I'm not enamoured with DP's posting so far. Vivax is probably mafia, while HiroPro is fairly likely to be town in my opinion, I've not seen any reason for him to be mafia. Hiro also cut short completely what could have been a farcical discussion earlier. I agree with others that what Stutters is doing now with this sleeper cell thing is less likely to come from a mafia perspective, so I now lean town on him, and subsequently I'm still mafia on slOosh. The way he went about pushing me was just awful. prplhz I also believe to be town. Hiro said earlier in the game that prplhz idolises the vets, and I also know this to be true, so his BC case is a town-tell (even though it was wrong). Also I know people are going to say he's lurky and what have you, but I actually like his limited contributions while he's here. risk could still be mafia but I'm not particularly sure on that at all actually. I'm most in the middle on risk I'd say. Crossfire is still disappearing, and I think he's mafia, and I think everything he's posted has been helped along by Foolishness. Dandel is more certain town than the list, Acro less certain, although I still think he's town, he just makes my eyebrows raise ("foolish is town?"). | ||
|
Vivax
21960 Posts
Darth, yamato, marv scum Others I'm not sure on at all currently. I looked into Ver's posts from his town games and he's a massive analyser, huge posts and stuff. Here he seemed to be content and careless with his last post before deadline. As for DP, even though he replaced into I feel like his posts don't sound very interested into solving the game. When I replaced in in Themed I spat out who I want to lynch pretty soon (despite not having read the whole thread). I think a few things could happen tonight, mind you, super tin foil mode so it's for my own fun: Some (scum) dude claiming vig and shooting me. Foolishness being roleblocked. 3 kills assuming nothing gets protected, so people think 1 KP is missing and it was Foolish. Next go at trying to lynch Foolish. I'm curious to see if Foolish really gets shot. | ||
|
strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On March 16 2013 07:32 slOosh wrote: Ok. This is probably my pivotal post. The way I did it was look at the playerlist, cross out dead people, make loose associations with Foolish cora scum, and my nuke crew (3 town 1 scum), so I'm left with lurkeresque type players. I guess they got away with producing less since me and Vivax was taking the full brunt of focus, given that we were playing on scum side for sometime. But I digress. On March 16 2013 07:54 Vivax wrote: Actually, no one might be scum tonight. What do these mean | ||
|
Vivax
21960 Posts
| ||
|
Vivax
21960 Posts
| ||
|
Acrofales
Spain17958 Posts
Basically, there is no guarantee that Stutters or his partner are not scum. Yes, I have a bit of a town read on Stutters, but no clue what this sleeper cell business is, and sleeper cell doesn't sound town aligned. Destroy Foolishness. It's better to be safe than sorry. Shoot Foolishness. | ||
| ||
