|
On March 06 2013 00:40 Oatsmaster wrote:
My next post is obviously in response to Acro's very obvious meta case on Hapa which is the biggest scumtell about him.
So I voted for hapa cause I was convinced.
Also I realized that Yamato was probably trigger happy town like Adam(hopefully)
Yes, that's why you said that in justification for your switch. Oh, wait.
|
Oh wait, it doesnt matter.
Go make a case/argument on why I am scum then, instead of sniping like 1 suspicous quote.
|
On March 06 2013 00:40 Oatsmaster wrote:
My next post is obviously in response to Acro's very obvious meta case on Hapa which is the biggest scumtell about him.
So I voted for hapa cause I was convinced.
On March 05 2013 01:08 Oatsmaster wrote:
Am I scummy for defending Hapa?
It looks like the only reason that people have for calling hapa scum is that his activity has not been like his normal town games. Which isnt all that strong.
WHAT?
|
On March 06 2013 00:28 yamato77 wrote:
Oats doubtful mafia.
Cora/Alderan/Acro/Zare
Mafia is among you.
I'll make it easier.
Zare
I'll filter him and give you a case when I get home, but I have fairly strong reasons for pretty much everybody else being town, and fairly strong reasons for Zapa being scum. Combine the two and the conclusion is pretty obvious.
|
11589 Posts
The fact that Oats is still active in the game is proof enough to me that he's not mafia.
Alderan or Acro. Do analysis. Take stances. I'm having trouble making sense of either filter.
|
EBWOP: Neither of the reasons that you have provided for switching your vote were said by you, and one of them you outright didn't even believe.
|
11589 Posts
On March 06 2013 00:52 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2013 00:28 yamato77 wrote:
Oats doubtful mafia.
Cora/Alderan/Acro/Zare
Mafia is among you. I'll make it easier. ZareI'll filter him and give you a case when I get home, but I have fairly strong reasons for pretty much everybody else being town, and fairly strong reasons for Zapa being scum. Combine the two and the conclusion is pretty obvious.
You think Alderan is confirmed town or something?
|
On March 06 2013 00:52 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2013 00:28 yamato77 wrote:
Oats doubtful mafia.
Cora/Alderan/Acro/Zare
Mafia is among you. I'll make it easier. ZareI'll filter him and give you a case when I get home, but I have fairly strong reasons for pretty much everybody else being town, and fairly strong reasons for Zapa being scum. Combine the two and the conclusion is pretty obvious.
I hope your fairly strong reasons for pretty much everybody else being town, because at least one of them is wrong.
|
EBWOP: I hope you *re-examine* your fairly strong reasons
|
On March 06 2013 00:40 Adam4167 wrote:
Go read Alderans filter, does it legitimately feel like hes trying to figure out anyone's alignment?
Alderan is an outside option. It's mostly a behavioural case for his towniness. He has been passionate about some things I can't imagine a scum being passionate about.
Hapa's reason for not wanting to double-lynch was fairly academic and he was never forceful about it. Alderan went balls-to-the-walls nuts about it.
|
On March 06 2013 00:50 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2013 00:40 Oatsmaster wrote:
My next post is obviously in response to Acro's very obvious meta case on Hapa which is the biggest scumtell about him.
So I voted for hapa cause I was convinced. Show nested quote +On March 05 2013 01:08 Oatsmaster wrote:
Am I scummy for defending Hapa?
It looks like the only reason that people have for calling hapa scum is that his activity has not been like his normal town games. Which isnt all that strong.
WHAT?
Well I read acro's case, and realised that yes Hapa's activity matches up with 3 of his scum games, and doesnt match up by a FAR margin with his town games. So in this case, Hapa's activity meta is a big deal and a clear scumtell for him. So I changed my vote.
|
@Oats
Okay, I had thought there was a massive contradiction, but I checked back again and Acro did make a more full meta explanation right before your vote switch, and at a time when Yamato was leading votes 3 to 2. And the meta case is what you talked about the most after the switch. So it's less likely that you switched as a bus.
From my perspective, that leaves Alderan, Snarfs, Syl, and Adam. Syl or Adam can only be scum if scum dueled scum at some point this game, and that just seems awful. That leaves Alderan and Snarfs.
Snarfs has had a town read from a lot of people this game, despite having super low activity. I'll take some time to look at each of them individually and see if I find anything of note.
|
lol too easy. Zare for the win? That's my feeling right now, but the chance at a perfect game means this definitely deserves a reread, or at least as much of one as I can find time for - I suggest you all do the same and we nail this! :D
|
On February 28 2013 07:00 Alderan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2013 06:58 Acrofales wrote:
I prefer Zare/Sylencia.
Zare looks REALLY terrible with the Keir flip. There is no way Dieno is not in this upcoming duel. Sorry.
On February 28 2013 12:42 Alderan wrote:
Let's do it this way.
Is there anyone in the thread that thinks Dienosore does not deserve to be in the duel?
If not, why?
Alderan really went after Dieno for all of the first two days, and he DID say that he was going to be less active of late because of a girlfriend or something. I don't see an Alderan scum.
|
Snarfs was calling suspicion onto Hapa before Day 3, and was quick to vote for him. As odd as the size of Snarfs' filter looks, I think he's legit.
From my perspective, that only leaves Syl and Adam, and both of them were dueled or DID duel. Syl makes much more sense, as the thread was calling for them to duel each other anyway and it would have been hard for a Dieno/Syl scumteam to avoid dueling each other under that environment.
I'll be checking into Syl some more this afternoon around work.
|
Syl didn't have a case or a reason on Hapa, but a super long listy post about general lynch strategy. At the end of it he says he'll vote Hapa in 90 minutes, which doesn't happen. This post comes in after there's 4 votes on Hapa anyway.
Day 2 he was up for lynch and did his biggest amount of scum hunting -- arguing as to why Dieno is scum.
Day 1 he almost wilfully ignored Keir's scumminess and voted to lynch Adam NOT because he looked like scum, but as a "detriment to town."
On February 26 2013 18:31 Sylencia wrote:
The sad thing is that I don't see Adam being scum, but just a detriment to town.
Regarding Keir, I feel like he's pretty much on the same area as I am, not much from him but the fact he's argued with Adam meant that he's been put up for a duel. I'm still null on Keir, but if this is the way Adam wants to play I don't think it's exactly going to help us out in the long run.
##Vote: Adam
Syl does a lot of work going after Adam in Duel 1. I don't think a scum Syl would have been able to get out of dueling scum Dieno on Duel 2, and so I don't think that can be a townie point in any way.
|
Snarfs is town based on Hapa's posting. Hapa was really floppy on Snarfs. He first thought the opening post was townie, and when people in the thread were seeing it as scummy he tried to take advantage of it. His end-of-N0 reads were thrawn, Snarfs and Dieno. Seems unlikely he has 2 out of 3 actual scum. Then Hapa is back to Snarfs being town based on his vote (and the thread momentum swinging back to Snarfs=town). Later, when Hapa is running out of plausible scumreads, Snarfs is back to being scum. Conclusion: Snarfs
Weak evidence for Oats being town from Hapa's list post. That town read on Oats doesn't seem faked:
Oatsmaster seems townie due to his activity and his thought-process during the duel proceedings. He seems to care a lot about scumhunting... and well... just thinks a lot like a townie. Hard to put my finger on it, but it seems very genuine. That, and him being suspicious of marv in the early game against pretty much everyone else doesn't seem like a scum move to me.
Sylencia is town. Hapa proclaimed wanting to double-lynch Dieno and Sylencia. He then pushed it all throughout the lynch and wanted to nail thrawn for not double-lynching (nobody took that case seriously, and this was when Hapa flipflopped on thrawn). No way does a scum do that if both of them are scum. He was hoping Sylencia would stay lurked and he could get the 1-1 trade which was the best of a bad situation.
Zapa in Hapa's filter:
Zapa gets a nice soft-defense: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17882681 Why is Zapa thrown into this post? It just seems like a gratuitious soft-defense. Can't make too much of this association, but every time I read Hapa's filter this struck me as weird, and it still does.
Later in the game, Zapa starts being a bit of a scumread. Could be self-preservation, because half the thread was starting to get suspicious of Zapa, but could be build-up to a mislynch.
There's also the list post, in which Zapa gets thrown in with Snarfs:
For Snarfs + Zarapeth, of these guys voted only voted Kei, and did so at a time that seemed to swing the momentum onto Kei's bandwagon. Both of their filters are pretty "meh," but I can't find anything overtly scummy there, and their voting actions (and timing) suggest a townie motivation.
This is not actually an accurate representation of what happened and it seems to be worded in such a way so the whole happening puts Zapa in a better light than he deserves from what occurred.
Adam is town based on Hapa's posting. Unless that is one of the best covering stories I've ever seen, Hapa is super-hard defending Adam's townieness. The chance that this was a 3-way scumplay with Adam and Keir bussing each other and Hapa hard-defending Adam and bussing Keir is 0% (none, nada, zip, zero).
Alderan in Hapa's filter:
This can be summarized very easily. There is no significant mention of Alderan in Hapa's filter. He is silent as the grave on the matter. The only read on Alderan, and the first mention of him in the game by Hapa is in the list post:
For Alderan, there's nothing really conclusive in his filter since he was pretty clear that he thought both people on the block were town. His attitude is consistent, and I sympathise with it having initially been in the same situation to some extent. Also, I got some town vibes from his huge fight with Acro about not wanting to double-lynch. I'd expect mafia to not be as adamant against the idea.
Translation: I am the wishywash. Wishywash is my read. I can go whichever way the wind blows!
The only other mention of Alderan is when I pressure Hapa to give reads other than Yamato. His primary scumread is Zapa. If not Yamato or Zapa, then look into Alderan, Snarfs or Acro.
That second list is a very very safe place to hide a scumbuddy.
Based on Hapa's filter alone, Alderan pulls ahead in scumpoints.
On March 04 2013 09:46 Hapahauli wrote:
It is also possible that I'm a pink unicorn with butterfly wings.
Just because something is "possible" doesn't mean that you should dismiss the entire argument that my actions make no sense from a scum perspective. How likely is it that I did what I did as scum?
I hate pink unicorns. KABOOM MOTHAFUCKA.
|
So.
Based on duels and scumster actions: Adam, Yamato, Sylencia, Snarfs
Based on filter and ingame actions: Cora, Oats
I think the duel tomorrow is pretty self-evident: Zapa vs Alderan
I am warming to the whole Alderan is scum idea.
|
Zare, if you're going to do scumhunting, you're going to need to actually give us who the last scum is rather than saying 'Oats is scum because of this, Cora is scum because of this, Syl is scum because of this' - it just screams of deflection.
Zare vs X is the most appropriate duel for today.
PS:
On March 06 2013 04:02 zarepath wrote:
Syl didn't have a case or a reason on Hapa, but a super long listy post about general lynch strategy. At the end of it he says he'll vote Hapa in 90 minutes, which doesn't happen.
The vote from Adam already happened as I came back to vote ~100 minutes after my previous post. After the hammer fell it was quiet time until mod came, so there wasn't exactly much to say about that.
|
On March 06 2013 07:48 Sylencia wrote:Zare, if you're going to do scumhunting, you're going to need to actually give us who the last scum is rather than saying 'Oats is scum because of this, Cora is scum because of this, Syl is scum because of this' - it just screams of deflection. Zare vs X is the most appropriate duel for today. PS: Show nested quote +On March 06 2013 04:02 zarepath wrote:
Syl didn't have a case or a reason on Hapa, but a super long listy post about general lynch strategy. At the end of it he says he'll vote Hapa in 90 minutes, which doesn't happen.
The vote from Adam already happened as I came back to vote ~100 minutes after my previous post. After the hammer fell it was quiet time until mod came, so there wasn't exactly much to say about that.
Who should be the X Syl?
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
