EPTThis Town Ain't Big Enough Mafia - Page 112
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18258 Posts
There's some townie stuff and some scummy stuff in both their filters. Alderan Town, because: 1. Super-early scumread on Dieno. 2. Aggressively fighting against the double-lynch. Scum, because: 1. Very stingy with dishing out reads. 2. "Confirmed" townie into afk. 3. Very very stand-offish on the Keir/Adam lynch. Wanted to hammer whoever would result in not-a-double-lynch: cared nothing for who that was. 4. Brings up the double-lynch in the Dieno/Syl lynch while claiming he doesn't want to double-lynch. Suspicious minds could see this as scum hoping someone would hop off Dieno and start pushing a double-lynch 4. His stance on me is flip-flopping all over the place. Calls me scum, yet not-scum. Agrees with Yamato's case, but doesn't think I'm scum. The whole sequence just seemed incredibly useless at the time, but it could be malevolent. Zapa Town because: 1. Has made a number of posts that just seem horribly out of place for scum. Particularly: On February 28 2013 08:13 zarepath wrote: What about the case did you think wasn't good. I am trying to make better cases. This was so disarming and unexpected, it instantly disarmed my scumread at the time and made me dismiss my case against him. 2. Once he decided he wanted Keir dead, he seemed to have conviction. Scum because: 1. Most wishy-washy reads post in the entire game. Both Hapa and Dieno get a very vague read. 2. Wants to double-lynch Syl/Dieno with very little conviction. At the time I called it the worst post in the game, and it still is. 3. Seems to have a preconceived stance on the Hapa/Yamato lynch and "makes up" his defense based on this without analysing the arguments layed out in the thread. 4. Very stand-offish for most of the Adam/Keir lynch as if he is waiting to see where the thread will land. 5. Has been very wrong a bit too often for flimsy reasons. I really don't see any reason not to pit these two in a face-off tomorrow unless Zapa has some objection to dueling Alderan (who has apparently decided that the best play this game is to take advantage of the lack of an activity requirement in the OP). If Alderan stays absent or looks like scum, we kill him. If Zapa doesn't show us he's town, we kill him. Now all that's left is for me to take another look at Cora's filter and make sure I haven't missed something. | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
I currently see Syl as scummier than Alderan but I will do more research on that tomorrow (Headed to bed). I know a lot of people want me up for duel, but if literally nobody DOESN'T want me to duel, I ask that everyone waits to ##Duel until very close to the end of the day. If I"m going to be up for duel no matter what, I would rather be dueling my scum read than an aggressive townie, since there's no point for me arguing against my lynch when I don't believe the other person to be scum. And it will take me the 24 hours to become certain enough that I want the whole town to focus on that person and myself. So if nobody objects, I would like the full 24 hours, and near the end I will ##Duel my scum read. If I don't duel, somebody else can initiate as a failsafe. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
Make your analysis between Syl and Alderan before the deadline, I'm not going to sit around and wait 24 hours for the same duel that was probably going to happen. There's honestly not too much more discussion to have. The game is going really slow right now and I think that seeing you and Alderan is what needs to happen. As much as I want Syl dead due to my frustration over his activity, I think that Alderan is a lot better choice. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
Anyway, we'll see tomorrow. His not posting is now absolutely inexcusable, so yeah, I am frustrated to say the least. | ||
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Adam4167
Australia1426 Posts
How far off was that night post, I think I hammered Hapa around this time yesterday wasn't it? | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
When I wake up tomorrow, I honestly want to just see Alderan like insta-dueled by Zare or perhaps Acro. Anything else is wasting time. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
Thats like an offensive gg. BM Yamato. Is his 'afk'ness the only reason you are calling him scum? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18258 Posts
It could be due to being afk. It could be because he just doesn't want to condede. It could be because we have made setup assumptions that are wrong. It could be because we are making a gigantic blunder and the scum is hiding in our list of townies. It could be because of some reason I haven't thought of. The very premise of using that in your scumhunting is stupid. What I do agree on is that Alderan should be dueled. He should be dueled by Zarepath. Anything other than this duel is a waste of time. Zapa, make it so. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18258 Posts
Why Cora is scum: 1. Wanted Adam dead, but hammered Keirathi. 2. Wanted a double-lynch on Dieno/Syl. However, his explanation for both these things is what makes me think these are townie things: 1. He just wanted to end it all and get on with the game. This does not sound like scum trying to take credit for a bus. He doesn't make up bullshit about how he suddenly saw that Adam was townie and Keir wasn't. No, he hadn't bothered doing much analysis on either (during the lynch he is still tunneling Syl, and to a lesser extent Oats). He doesn't want a double-lynch and the deadlocked situation was cruising for that, so he just hammered Keir to get it over with. He states this bluntly when questioned about it. It sounds honest. 2. He is completely tunneled on Syl being scum and keeps advancing ridiculous proposals about how Syl's lynch gives more information. If we had lynched Syl and he had flipped town, Cora would have looked terrible. Scum doesn't associate themselves with either/or situations: 1-1 trades are terrible. Even if we assume for a second Syl is scum, then he was pushing for a double-lynch of 2 of his scumbuddies. This is insane. And then there are the other reasons in his filter: 1. I have said this before, but it is worth repeating: Yamato vs. Cora sounded like the stereotypical fight that two aggressive townies get into. Scum tends to back down and not argue over stupid crap. 2. Generally interested in the game and figuring it out. Particularly in the Yamato/Hapa lynch I got the feeling that he was reading and analysing filters and other people's arguments. He was an early adopter of the Hapa lynch, while a scum could, at this point, easily have hung back on the Yamato is scum and probably saved his scumbuddy. Finally, Hapa's filter also gives some weak evidence for Cora being town. Hapa has a scumread on Cora when it looks like there's a chance of pitting a Syl vs. Cora lynch. When Cora keeps tunneling Syl through the entire lynch and people start giving Cora townreads, Hapa agrees and Cora is town. His reads on Cora follow the general thread consensus, which means Hapa didn't really care about Cora and cared more about his own image with regards to Cora. This is more likely if Cora is town. In closing, Cora was the last outsider that I felt I should analyse before really nailing down the Zapa vs. Alderan lynch. My conclusions are the same as they were before: Cora is town. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18258 Posts
Adam is town because he wanted Dieno dead, dueled Keirathi and Hapa was being all weird about the whole thing. Yamato is town because his behaviour is townie and he dueled Hapa when he had plenty of other options that left Hapa the scummer out of danger. Sylencia is town because he dueled Dieno when he could have dueled Cora, and because Hapa really wanted a double-lynch. Snarfs is town because his behaviour is townie and Hapa wanted him dead until the thread didn't agree with him anymore. Oats is town because his behaviour, and both Dieno and Hapa were trying to heap some cheap suspicion onto him. Cora is town because his behaviour. That leaves Zapa and Alderan. Make them duel each other. If Zapa duels someone else, insta-lynch him. If Zapa disappears and looks like he won't duel, lynch him. If he does lynch Alderan, play it like any other lynch. Give them time to make cases, defend themselves, etc. Don't just instalynch, or default to double-lynch. Keep thinking! Alternative scenarios: I still have a slight worry about weirdness in the setup, due to the scum wincon being redacted. If scum gets lynched and it is not yet GG, then there may be an anti-town 3P. Adam is still my main candidate for 3P with some wonky wincon. 5 scum seems pretty damned imbalanced in a 15-player setup with a night start (basically, that means 2 mislynches is scum victory), so I would not worry too much about that. If there is a NK, it is always a possibility that Alderan is not actually AFK, but just acting like he is, while he still sends in the NK. Don't take the presence of a NK as clear evidence that Alderan is not scum. If there is no NK, then I will still be alive and I'll do lynch-math after the daypost. If there is a NK, assume it is 7-1. If you double-lynch Zapa and Alderan (not saying you should, play it one step at a time, but IF you do), the worst-case scenario is that everything I said above is wrong, and it's 4-1 at the next lynch. At this point re-evaluate EVERYBODY, as it means that scum has been playing a very very clever game throwing blame around indiscriminately at each other. You then have 2 single lynches to find the last scum. Most important advice: do not get complacent and lazy. That's how towns lose a game which is all but won. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18258 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18258 Posts
Anyway:  | ||
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HiroPro
United States2624 Posts
Day 4 ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/da4vngU.png) No one was killed. You have 24 hours to initiate a duel. If no duels are called for by 15:06 GMT (+00:00), the day will end in a no-lynch. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
Still sticking with the plan? | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
#Justsaying | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18258 Posts
Worst-case scenario: he's town and we've been duped by scum. That means tomorrow it's 6-1. We only lost our double-lynch, but gained an information advantage over a blind double-lynch. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18258 Posts
##duel Alderan | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18258 Posts
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