EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXXVII - Page 56
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
| ||
|
Mandalor
Germany2362 Posts
I can't see how Sn0's reaction was any different from the others, including mine. Yet, for some reason, he excludes him from the "scummy" reactions. NOONE was super eager to go after him except warbaby maybe. I still think post 6 was weird and I only really commented on that. | ||
|
ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
As for how to play it after the tracker claim I really just winged it. I'm not the best of liars and didn't read the OP super well replacing in nor did I do any setup speculation based on my own role. Really think it could have gone differently without Test's claim but as they say, "They say it don't be like it is, but it do". | ||
|
zarepath
United States1626 Posts
On February 12 2013 01:33 Sn0_Man wrote: Regarding the WaveOfShadow case, I see some merit there but I'm still not here to lynch posting players unless more comes up. I agree with Mandalor about what part of the case is compelling. Unprompted soft AND hard town claims with some fairly stupid follow up excuses. It's not as scummy because he doesn't want him lynched today. Scum would hope for a mislynch. It's not like he's super critical of the case, but it's not as eager as the other people. | ||
|
zarepath
United States1626 Posts
On February 15 2013 00:31 Mandalor wrote: I don't quite understand zarepath's logic this game AT ALL. I can't see how Sn0's reaction was any different from the others, including mine. Yet, for some reason, he excludes him from the "scummy" reactions. NOONE was super eager to go after him except warbaby maybe. I still think post 6 was weird and I only really commented on that. What other things about my play do you see as illogical? | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
Either way, OO is an anti-town role. However, at this point his actions still make me think it likely that OO is the serial killer not somebody else. If that is true, then town can think about "manipulating" the SK. Because at this point, the SK wants to kill scum anyway (since killing too much town leaves him vulnerable to scum, who are more coordinated than town). So if we let the SK live on the premise that he will shoot scum, then it is good. However, a) I don't think OO knows who scum is any better than anybody else and b) given the roleblock happening, and assuming it is scum, they can roleblock the SK every night and still kill with impunity until they have lynch-control. Because the SK has veteran status (+1 night life), I'm guessing scum want to lynch him not shoot him. So we arrive at a funny point where scum wish very much to lynch the SK rather than shoot him, yet I believe it is also in towns best interest to lynch him (because scum fairly clearly has the tools to shut down the SK, and because I'm not convinced the SK will be able/willing to hit scum anyway). As previously mentioned, I don't really see how town can "Control" the SK since our votes are so awful. I mean, if we all ask the SK to NK a different person, he can do whatever he wants to right? Another point of interest: If you read how C9++ setups are rolled, there can be either 2 OR 3 mafia associated with a 13 player SK game. While I'm aware that this setup is obviously not C9++, I'm assuming the balance would be similar. An interesting note is that I'm guessing the power level of our blue roles is lower than that of those in C9++, which would lead me to believe that a more accurate balance would be 2 scum not 3. This is just speculation. I will point out that if there are only 2 mafia, I expect that they can guess that there is an SK. In that situation, it might be valuable to look and see if anybody "jumped" to the serial killer conclusion (aka already knew). Long post, but TL:DR; My vote stays. | ||
|
zarepath
United States1626 Posts
| ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On February 15 2013 01:10 zarepath wrote: If there are only two scum, SK definitely wants to lynch town tonight. I don't see how we could persuade OO to actually stay in control. Probably right actually. As I said, even though I think scum want to lynch OO pretty bad, so do town. Although its not unreasonable to say that scum might be willing to let OO live another day for a free townie kill. | ||
|
ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
| ||
|
Mandalor
Germany2362 Posts
On February 15 2013 00:44 zarepath wrote: What other things about my play do you see as illogical? I've already commented on how you see my filter as list-heavy when there's a single list-post. You either tunnel me really hard or you follow a certain agenda. | ||
|
Mandalor
Germany2362 Posts
On February 15 2013 00:42 zarepath wrote: It's not as scummy because he doesn't want him lynched today. Scum would hope for a mislynch. It's not like he's super critical of the case, but it's not as eager as the other people. yeah but where's the difference to all the other reactions except warbaby's. Noone jumped on your case and said "LET'S LYNCH HIM". | ||
|
warbaby
United States510 Posts
1) Both TS and OO are scum, TS is bussing OO in a very elaborate way. OO is not SK, so we still have to deal with 2 night kills after OO flips scum. This seems very unlikely, but would be a huge problem for town. 2) TS is Watcher and OO is scum. OO is trying to save his ass, and anybody giving credence to his SK cooperation offer may be scum trying to help him survive longer. This is also a big problem for town because SK and 2 scum are still alive after OO dies. 3) Assume the game balance is currently 6:3:1 (town:scum:sk). If we lynch OO and he flips SK, this leaves the game balance at 6:3 (town:scum). D3 will be 5:3. If we mislynch D4, we'll be at 3:3 and lose. So if we commit to lynching OO as SK, we can't mislynch. Thoughts on other stuff: + Show Spoiler [Some Mocsta Meta] + Mocsta's filter from Normal Mini IV where he was Town. Note that he posts a fairly comprehensive analysis of several players shortly after replacing into that game. He didn't do that in this game until the end of N1. Mocsta's filter from LIX as town. Note the lack of massive wall of text posts and bullshit spewing on D1. Also note the way he's more open to discussing many players, not just the 2-4 players he's willing to lynch. Mocsta's filter from XXXV as scum. Note the proliferation of big posts D1, lots of aggressive attempts to define the town agenda. Very similar to his D1 play in this game, IMO. So based on purely this meta analysis, I believe Mocsta could be scum. Maybe he realized he was giving himself away too much, so now he's cooled his jets a bit, to blend back in with the less aggressive towns? + Show Spoiler [Zarepath] + Zarepath tried a fake case on D1 to see if he could get any information either by pressuring WoS or analyzing the reaction to his case. My reaction to the case was "that's interesting, let's see what WoS says, before I consider voting him". Zarepath implies I got all excited about his case, which I did not. He continues to tunnel people based on a fake case from D1 -- he needs to move past this. + Show Spoiler [Mandalor] + Also tunneling me over a falsification of my reaction to Zarepath's fake case. Looks scummy, continues to lurk and make shitty posts. After OO is dead, I'm much more interested in lynching mandalor at this point than sevryn. | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On February 15 2013 03:20 warbaby wrote: I'm not quite done talking about the TestSubject/ObviousOne situation. Right now I believe TS's claim, but I'm not sure about OO's SK claim. A few scenarios I don't think we can rule out (although it's very tenuous logic): 1) Both TS and OO are scum, TS is bussing OO in a very elaborate way. OO is not SK, so we still have to deal with 2 night kills after OO flips scum. This seems very unlikely, but would be a huge problem for town. TS can't be scum. Claiming tracker D1 is suicide because he can't know if there will be a tracker counter-claim. Plus he has to bus a buddy who agrees to play along for this to work. No chance. TS is confirmed town tracker, 100%. | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
| ||
|
warbaby
United States510 Posts
On February 15 2013 03:46 Sn0_Man wrote: TS can't be scum. Claiming tracker D1 is suicide because he can't know if there will be a tracker counter-claim. Plus he has to bus a buddy who agrees to play along for this to work. No chance. TS is confirmed town tracker, 100%. Yeah, I'm heavily leaning that way. It would be an insane gambit to fake claim the way he did -- it's not 100% sure to fail but it's quite a risk. If TS is confirmed Tracker, we need him to give input on who he thinks scum could be, not just who he tracked. Good chance he'll die N2. | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
Either way, what now becomes interesting is what happens tomorrow. It will be EITHER 5-3 OR 6-2 depending on setup. However, we can't know which. This is a fascinating situation because I think it may actually call for a no-lynch. Or at least, I don't know yet who I wish to lynch and a No-lynch is remarkably reasonable. In the 5-3 case we go down to 4-3, which is extremely risky but hopefully town should be able to locate the scum in such a situation. In the 6-2 case we go down to 5-2, which isn't even MYLO so town then has a safe mislynch. While town won't know, it doesn't seem that unreasonable. Keep in mind that in the 3-scum case, mislynch tomorrow is GG. | ||
|
zarepath
United States1626 Posts
On February 15 2013 03:00 Mandalor wrote: yeah but where's the difference to all the other reactions except warbaby's. Noone jumped on your case and said "LET'S LYNCH HIM". No, but they didn't proactively say "let's not lynch him." In fact, somebody saying "LET'S LYNCH HIM" would have read more town than scum to me. WB, the only reason I'm bringing this fake case stuff out again is because Mocsta wanted more of my reaction to my fake case, so I provided it. Mandalor, you have TWO lists in your filter, and it's a short filter. I did exaggerate when I said "every other post is a list," you're right about that; it was fairly sloppy. But that doesn't magically make your filter read town. Where were your N1 reads? Who do you even suspect of being scum anymore? Someone claims tracker on a kill, someone claims vig in response, and your reaction is what? The first thing you've posted since then is to call me out on bad logic on something unrelated. So in sum, don't criticize people for suspecting you and saying you look scummy when you have done almost nothing to look town. Start acting like town and at least pretending to care about the scum hunt. | ||
|
zarepath
United States1626 Posts
On February 15 2013 02:53 Mandalor wrote: I've already commented on how you see my filter as list-heavy when there's a single list-post. You either tunnel me really hard or you follow a certain agenda. Also note that you're one of SEVERAL people I have slight scum reads on, and the quote you have issue with comes from a post with reads on literally every single player. I hardly call that tunneling; I'm not calling for your lynch or anything. Don't be so defensive and look for scum instead. | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
| ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
Could we get a vote count pretty please? Thanks | ||
| ||
