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Do you guys really think he's Palmar? Wtf?
If he is mad props to him for completely changing his posting style, but he seriously is like 99% syllo in my mind Just look at the way he approaches his suspicions and discusses them, and how he takes "leadership" of town. He's syllo, end of the argument.
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On January 23 2013 04:38 yamato77 wrote: Austin, I already outed Grush as mason.
Are people reading my filter? I think austin is still working through the thread. He just came to sandroba's mason discussion I think. I'm also interested in what people (particularly grush) have to say about the yamato/grush mason post, but I don't really know what to make of it either.
A quick question that I think I know the answer to but I want to confirm. Are bodyguards alerted to the fact that they're bodyguards, or do only the elected officials know who they are?
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I am not sure about outing bodyguards in the thread to be honest, at least not now. Masoning a townie and telling him is a better option I think.
It gives scum a lot of info for like the 0.001% chance they'll go all in and kill both Toad/Five and somehow get away with it.
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On January 23 2013 04:44 gonzaw wrote: Do you guys really think he's Palmar? Wtf?
If he is mad props to him for completely changing his posting style, but he seriously is like 99% syllo in my mind Just look at the way he approaches his suspicions and discusses them, and how he takes "leadership" of town. He's syllo, end of the argument. If you read the logs you will notice I said I know FT is not syllo. I'm pretty positive he is palmar, but that doesn't really matter.
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11589 Posts
On January 23 2013 04:45 mkfuba07 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2013 04:38 yamato77 wrote: Austin, I already outed Grush as mason.
Are people reading my filter? I think austin is still working through the thread. He just came to sandroba's mason discussion I think. I'm also interested in what people (particularly grush) have to say about the yamato/grush mason post, but I don't really know what to make of it either. A quick question that I think I know the answer to but I want to confirm. Are bodyguards alerted to the fact that they're bodyguards, or do only the elected officials know who they are? Fuba, what is your natural inclination about Grush's alignment given what he's posted, and the mason PMs I posted?
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 23 2013 04:42 sandroba wrote: @palmar that's a bit of confirmation bias on your part. If you already think oats is mafia, yes, you can fit everything he posts into a mafia mindset, trying to explain how he is mafia in that situation. I really don't think we can tell for sure whether oats is mafia or not right now, because there are certain aspects of his posting that do feel a lot like a townie. My initial suspicion on Oats was based on when he called me out, I came back to the thread to answer him then posted something on JX, which he proceeded to ignore until Vivax brought it up. He then came up with a made up defense that looked bad. Now if I set my mind on him thinking I'm scum I can see him ignoring my comment and being alarmed on someone ressurecting it afterwards, then defending my suspect based on his own bias. His subsequent posting look kinda townie as wbg pointed out, and I agree with his reasoning. Of course it's possible he is pretty good at scum and is faking all that, but I don't think it's likely, and at least we should chill a bit and check out subsequent behavior, especially regarding tomorrow's lynch.
Simply enough, my read differs to you. From the mafia filter you linked:
On December 05 2012 00:30 Oatsmaster wrote:
Currently I have a slight town read on yamato, however he seems to be acting differently as opposed to last game. Probably because he wants to improve like me, but you never know.
On December 05 2012 01:05 Oatsmaster wrote:
removed
Im leaning slightly scum on yamato and kickstart
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On December 05 2012 09:31 Oatsmaster wrote: I changed my read on yamato because at that time, I had the impression that he was null to slightly town, then when I looked through yamato's filter, I found some scummy stuff. He starts out with the introductory post then has no content otherwise. That gives me the impression that he is asking questions to look involved and notice, he asked so many questions to axle who looked ill-equipped to answer, so its not very effective in finding scum.
A contradiction, albeit the other way round. A mafia Oatsmaster has problems keeping his story consistent.
In any case, you're right that I don't need to push it right now. Suffice to say I disagree with bugs' reasons to call him town.
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On January 23 2013 04:38 yamato77 wrote: Austin, I already outed Grush as mason.
Are people reading my filter? Yes, I am. There are a couple compartmentalized discussions going on right now, but the mason bit is something I don't think should get left behind while these other things are happening.
Your outing Grush as a mason does not mean we only have 2 masons, however. It's entirely possible that we had more than 2 people masoned on D1 (between regular masons OR the mason ability of a jack), and the possible-non-you masonees need to be considering who masoned them and what went on in chat.
More just something that I don't want to get lost, I was writing that post during the time Sandroba posted, and it looks a little more unnecessary that it did when we'd gone pages without bringing up you/grush/masons in general and didn't want that to get lost.
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I am almost positive there are more masons and masonees.
Who those people are, I have only clues, but you're definitely thinking like I am in this situation.
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On January 23 2013 04:52 FiveTouch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2013 04:42 sandroba wrote: @palmar that's a bit of confirmation bias on your part. If you already think oats is mafia, yes, you can fit everything he posts into a mafia mindset, trying to explain how he is mafia in that situation. I really don't think we can tell for sure whether oats is mafia or not right now, because there are certain aspects of his posting that do feel a lot like a townie. My initial suspicion on Oats was based on when he called me out, I came back to the thread to answer him then posted something on JX, which he proceeded to ignore until Vivax brought it up. He then came up with a made up defense that looked bad. Now if I set my mind on him thinking I'm scum I can see him ignoring my comment and being alarmed on someone ressurecting it afterwards, then defending my suspect based on his own bias. His subsequent posting look kinda townie as wbg pointed out, and I agree with his reasoning. Of course it's possible he is pretty good at scum and is faking all that, but I don't think it's likely, and at least we should chill a bit and check out subsequent behavior, especially regarding tomorrow's lynch. Simply enough, my read differs to you. From the mafia filter you linked: Show nested quote +On December 05 2012 00:30 Oatsmaster wrote:
Currently I have a slight town read on yamato, however he seems to be acting differently as opposed to last game. Probably because he wants to improve like me, but you never know.
Show nested quote +On December 05 2012 01:05 Oatsmaster wrote:
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Im leaning slightly scum on yamato and kickstart
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Show nested quote +On December 05 2012 09:31 Oatsmaster wrote: I changed my read on yamato because at that time, I had the impression that he was null to slightly town, then when I looked through yamato's filter, I found some scummy stuff. He starts out with the introductory post then has no content otherwise. That gives me the impression that he is asking questions to look involved and notice, he asked so many questions to axle who looked ill-equipped to answer, so its not very effective in finding scum.
A contradiction, albeit the other way round. A mafia Oatsmaster has problems keeping his story consistent. In any case, you're right that I don't need to push it right now. Suffice to say I disagree with bugs' reasons to call him town.
Bugs isn't caling him town I think (neither am I), we're calling him less of a good lynch than when considered him 24 hours ago. Like I said, he's still one of the 7 people labeled as not-town for me, just not the primary guy.
At least that's what I'm reading out of bugs posts.
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I really don't think that's a good comparison, his whole filter in that game are random 3 liners saying XYZ is mafia for w/e reasons. This very last post you quoted look at how he struggles to justify his change of mind and how weak and fake sounding is his explanation. Very much different from this game imo.
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 23 2013 04:56 sandroba wrote: I really don't think that's a good comparison, his whole filter in that game are random 3 liners saying XYZ is mafia for w/e reasons. This very last post you quoted look at how he struggles to justify his change of mind and how weak and fake sounding is his explanation. Very much different from this game imo.
His reason for calling me town was "I leak town through my pores"
There is no justification whatsoever
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do you know the names of the bgs yet? :/
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Can you quote the post he calls you scum previous to that? I really fail to see a reason to find him mafia besides what I pointed out earlier.
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 23 2013 05:01 Toadesstern wrote: do you know the names of the bgs yet? :/
I don't, no. I've PMed BC about it too.
By the way, bugs called Oats 90-95% town if you care to read the thread, my amphibious friend.
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I find it weird how wbg thinks Oats is like confirmed town as well. At worst, like Toad said, it should be a reason to not instantly lynch him on D2, but not instantly call him confirmed town :/
It's like he thinks Oats is more likely town than Toad/sandro/me/maybe even you Five
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 23 2013 05:03 sandroba wrote: Can you quote the post he calls you scum previous to that? I really fail to see a reason to find him mafia besides what I pointed out earlier.
Why are you asking me to point out contradictions I've already posted in the thread?
On January 21 2013 11:58 Oatsmaster wrote: What does 5touch have done to deserve the mayorial position? Is it because all of you agree with his reads? Or think he is town? Cause all I see in his filter is a lot of 1 liners and not much else.
FiveTouch./Everyone sheeping him.
On January 21 2013 22:21 Oatsmaster wrote:
Ok on to FiveTouch, He is leaking town through his pores, but I dont want to vote for him because day 1 lynch will be a mislynch. Me. However, if he changes his target, I would think about voting for him based on his reads.
From his first filter analysis, I am a bunch of one-liners and not much else. In his second filter analysis I'm leaking town, with no reason given for the change.
Of course it is also possible for a town Oatsmaster to change his mind like this. But the manner in which he did so is quite unnatural.
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On January 23 2013 04:49 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2013 04:45 mkfuba07 wrote:On January 23 2013 04:38 yamato77 wrote: Austin, I already outed Grush as mason.
Are people reading my filter? I think austin is still working through the thread. He just came to sandroba's mason discussion I think. I'm also interested in what people (particularly grush) have to say about the yamato/grush mason post, but I don't really know what to make of it either. A quick question that I think I know the answer to but I want to confirm. Are bodyguards alerted to the fact that they're bodyguards, or do only the elected officials know who they are? Fuba, what is your natural inclination about Grush's alignment given what he's posted, and the mason PMs I posted? My natural inclination is keeping him as null/slight scum. I don't really know how to discern between a town and mafia grush, and his play this game so far doesn't have me leaning far one way or the other. I'm used to him being more active as town, if not necessarily useful. I certainly don't see him as useful thus far, but I could say that about a few people. I would say he might be a good vig hit, but if he's a town blue role then I wouldn't want to sacrifice that based on what we've seen so far. I can understand why you brought the PMs to the thread, but I don't know what to make of them either.
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Hmm, to be honest Five, I don't think that stuff you mention is that alignment-indicative. Like, it even happened with me. When you made your first post you were just some "noob" or "unknown guy" trying to appear like you were contributing and the like, you weren't "Palmar's/syllo's smurf leading town to victory" by then. I could see Oats changing his mind about you in that frame of time if he's town (as well as if he's scum like you said), so maybe that's what sandro/wbg/toad are arguing about.
I think it'd be better to just stop that argument of "he changed his mind about Five!", and focus on other damning things about his play, like him being super angry for no reason and making a shitty OMGUS on me following with a bad case
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EBWOP:
Of course what I mean is I want wbg and the like to address those points as well.
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Gonzaw, don't put words in my mouth. Just because I called Oats almost surely town does not mean he is my strongest read.
Sandro would have been right if he was looking closer to right after the lynch. Right after the lynch I would not have called Oats town but certainly I would not have called a lynch on him either. It was only after rereading several times that I came to the conclusion that oats is town.
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