EPT/replacement
Newbie Mini Mafia XXXVI
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cakepie
985 Posts
/replacement | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
----- 1. I count N1 as a qualified success in that no one died. Sn0 discussed: + Show Spoiler + On January 30 2013 00:23 Sn0_Man wrote: What I would like to discuss right now is the night action. Remember that NOBODY DIED last night. The scenarios that I can think of for that are: A) Mafia shit the bed (pretty unlikely given that they have a coach), B) Both mafia members are/were inactive (Cakepie...  )C) Town has a JailKeeper/Doctor who is a clairvoyant (this one seems the most likely). In the case of C, however, there is an interesting distinction between having a JK and a Doc. If we have a Doc, they have a confirmed townie on their hands, although that isn't necessarily that helpful. If we have a JK, then they know that their target is EITHER mafia OR the mafia target last night. But they can't be certain which. That again is interesting. As warbaby also pointed out, there is a possibility of both JK and Doc being present, so you must not discount that. This takes me to the next point: ----- 2. Nobody has made any claim of being roleblocked. (All roleblocked targets are notified if they were blocked successfully). Hence, either: a. there is no jailkeeper, or b. someone is hiding something, and the j/k knows this. Note that (b) is reliable even if there are both doc and j/k in the game. A doc, if present in this game, cannot assume that the nokill is due to a successful save by them -- it may be due to success by a possible jk. Whereas the j/k at this point can conclude that their N1 target has chosen to not reveal that they got roleblocked. And in a newbie game, that is equivalent to a lie. However I don't think that this information is valuable enough to be worth a roleclaim so early in the game. Careful crumbing might be useful. (likewise with the doc's possible confirmed townie) ----- 3. Guys, remember that the bad guys have a rolecop as well. ----- 4. On January 30 2013 00:23 Sn0_Man wrote: [...] Cakepie is the only TRULY afk player over the course of all of Night 1... I replaced into the game with 2h remaining in N1 phase, in the middle of my workday. Be reasonable about it. In fact, you'll have to bear with a couple days of reduced participation from me as I was not expecting to have to replace in this early: On January 25 2013 03:09 cakepie wrote: I was postponing my signup since I'm still going to be fairly busy for the next week or so and the roster wasn't filling up, but if you guys are moving to a 9P setup then I'll just /replacement I have to teach a 90 min lecture in an hour from now and another one in two days, the prep work for that has been keeping me fairly busy. I'll try to devote as much of my free time as possible, but my schedule really only starts to open up toward the end of the week. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
I was willing to get behind warbaby's vote on glurio, but things moved too quickly. (Basis: voting patterns) In any case I am not willing to be on either the cora or warbaby wagons. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
I can get behind this. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
If you are indeed cop we can get more use out of you one more night if warbaby can protect you. And if you are not protected, then warbaby is lying = confirmed scum to be lynched D3, as opposed to the current uncertain situation. A chance that warbaby is not lying and we get another cop read, is better than no chance at all -- you WILL be killed if you are telling the truth, and unprotected tonight | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
I think you're all barking up the wrong trees based on perceived poor play, aggressive play, WIFOM, and some OMGUS. You switching off warbaby is guaranteed to be a nett positive outcome: either we catch warbaby lying if he fails to protect you tonight, or we get more use out of your cop pr. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On January 31 2013 09:55 Sn0_Man wrote: Or scum didn't kill night 1 and then somehow we see warbaby as this unlynchable doc when he is scum? How likely is that? It'd have to be either really ballsy scum, or completely absent and not playing scum. I don't think so. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
If we mislynch warbaby and then lose sn0, we'd be fighting an uphill battle with only 2 confirmed town in zare and cora | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
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Alright guys, N2 could be interesting -- does mafia kill the confirmed town (Zare) or the cop claim (Sn0) ? Both should prepare a will for just before daypost. @Sn0 assuming you are telling the truth, do not waste N2 check in vain -- you might actually survive the night. You get to pick from four players, 50/50 chance of hitting scum, significantly better odds if you pick intelligently. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On January 31 2013 11:50 Acid~ wrote: Sn0_Man: [...] plus the breadcrumbing early in the day... [...] Where is this breadcrumb? I must have missed it. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On January 31 2013 11:58 zarepath wrote: If there is a JK, they NEED to role claim. It means that Sn0_Man was lying. Plus JK's N1 target who failed to report being blocked. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On January 31 2013 12:15 Acid~ wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 31 2013 11:55 cakepie wrote: Where is this breadcrumb? I must have missed it. First one, earliest: Second one: On January 31 2013 07:02 Sn0_Man wrote: I have a plenty strong town read on you, don't worry about your own image, nail the scum. If he turns out doctor its me and acid who screwed up. Voting acid when he clearly won't get lynched today is not helping town. All you do is make the scum votes more powerful by throwing yours away. Third one: On January 31 2013 07:54 Sn0_Man wrote: Warbaby can't properly scumhunt until we kill the last 2 lurkers, yet from day 1 he was self-proclaimed "scumhunting" and anybody who questioned him was clearly scum-loving. Can we PLEASE kill Warbaby? @Acid: are you seriously voting cora? o_o where did everything go so wrong... Cora is *not* scum. Oh, those, I'd noted them already, but I don't really count those as breadcrumbs -- I thought you meant Sn0 used steganography in N1 to indicate his intended action. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
On January 31 2013 14:05 cDgCorazon wrote: The fact that you're trying to push the blame of the lynch on someone else is ridiculously scummy. Zare you are indirectly (and I'm using the loosest possible meaning of "indirectly") responsible for WB's death. Don't put it on me or anyone else. It's time you owned up for your actions. And you, the hammer vote on warbaby, are trying to blame Zare for the mislynch, because On January 31 2013 14:05 cDgCorazon wrote: but his case was so stupid and full of WIFOM that I basically had to make an association case between the two to vote for WB. Are you fucking serious? You are blaming someone else's bad case for your poor judgement? Go back to NMM33 and look at the lessons learned for town -- you'll see that making association cases before flips are a really really bad idea. (Chrom, Mocsta) Maybe you didn't pay attention because you were scum back then. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On January 31 2013 14:24 cDgCorazon wrote: I'm pretty sure XXXIII meant not making associated cases based on information from flips. + Show Spoiler + On December 31 2012 09:59 Hapahauli wrote: Nope! Haha, glad you learned something from our PM's. A couple of townies were trying to put together scumteams, and I think that's a pretty faulty way of playing. Your job is to lynch the scummiest player, and then make the associations. Association cases can catch really straighforward scum plans, but against any decent scumteam, such cases are worthless. For example, I just finished a game (Witchcraft Mafia) where two scum members spent most of the game double-bussing each other. On December 31 2012 10:01 Dandel Ion wrote: Lists and association cases are the evil we try to erase during the newbie games. They are the metascum of new players. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On January 31 2013 14:05 cDgCorazon wrote: For the rest of you, you should've called out the WIFOM in the case. Sn0 was the only one who managed to do so. You guys need to analyze these cases and make better decisions based on them. In case it isn't clear, I thought the cases behind both wagons were weak sauce built upon too much WIFOM and OMGUS: On January 31 2013 09:53 cakepie wrote: I think you're all barking up the wrong trees based on perceived poor play, aggressive play, WIFOM, and some OMGUS. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On January 31 2013 14:42 Acid~ wrote: Again, Zare is confirmed town now that we know warbaby was telling the truth Well, not exactly, seeing as Zare himself raised this: On January 31 2013 11:58 zarepath wrote: If there is a JK, they NEED to role claim. It means that Sn0_Man was lying. On January 31 2013 12:00 cakepie wrote: Plus JK's N1 target who failed to report being blocked. Of course, a JK is quite implausible at this point given what has happened. A JK roleclaim at this juncture would need to: - justify not claiming on D2 in response to the presence of two other roleclaims (wait-and-see, perhaps? but such a player should have pounced upon Sn0 immediately after warbaby's flip) - provide a plausible N1 action The implications of a true JK roleclaim are that: - Sn0 is lying about being a cop - someone did not declare that they were roleblocked N1. - zare is not confirmed town, as N1 no kill could have been due to JK and not doc We of course also have to consider that the JK claim could be a fake claim as part of a gambit by scum to discredit Sn0, and by association, Cora (although logically speaking, null). It would be an incredibly risky move. For the record, acid, cora, zare and myself have posted without claiming JK. | ||
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cakepie
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cakepie
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On February 01 2013 01:26 Sn0_Man wrote: If I were scum, I'd avoid having my name associated with the medic lynch. No need to lynch the medic (once he has claimed) since you can just NK him instead from safety. The only reason to lynch the medic is for convenience, but if I were scum I'd rather not blow my cover by swapping votes or casting a hammer vote. Except why not? Warbaby managed to alienate himself vs so many people that the free medic lynch would look really safe and tempting. Many players already had a poor assessment of warbaby, it was precisely the fact that he looked set to be under then gun that led to him softclaiming, and then being forced to hard claim. - Acid was engaged in a mutual tunnel fest with warbaby - Corazon had serious issues with warbaby (and acid) getting too embroiled with one another and not helping look elsewhere - Acid, zare, sn0 already voting warbaby before the claim - glurio had cast slight suspicion on the basis of warbaby D1 voteswitching Scum was foiled N1 and did not get a kill in. Why not ensure the death of the medic and free up the night kill for hunting another blue role, or offing players who are the greatest threat, coming too close to finding scum? It's all WIFOM. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 01 2013 01:28 Sn0_Man wrote: I'm playing based off of that assumption. If it changes then I'll be around to change my play, but if it doesn't then my play is justified right now. No, you need to consider both possibilities. At 4-2 it will be a MYLO on D3. It is in fact completely plausible for scum to aim for zero confirmed townies by killing Zare, keeping both you (Sn0) and Cora in the game, trying to discredit you based on D2 play and voting, and playing for the mislynch. On the other hand, Sn0 flipping cop with the nightkill gives us two confirmed townies at 4-2 MYLO. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I reiterate that Zare and Sn0 really need to post a predawn will; most likely one of you will die tonight. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Let me share with you my most important observation, coming into the game as a fresh replacement, without the emotional investment of D1, N1, and early-to-mid D2, and speaking as an outsider reading all of that while catching up to the thread. Look at who among you are willing to come out and make controversial statements and possibly offend people. And look at who is simply content to safely cast weak suspicions all over the place without commitment, sheep opinions that are already expressed by other players, and wagon their vote without justification. The nature of D1, with the lack of any information, is that any "scumhunting" is going to be a crapshoot, relying on very weak evidence. There will often necessarily be plenty of WIFOM. (This holds true extending into D2 in this game, given how useless D1 was.) This is not unexpected. The problem with what happened subsequently, is that defenses and counteroffensives became a huge pile of OMGUS, and WIFOM upon WIFOM, spiraling out of control. And everyone got entangled into this messy web. A lot of arguments were built upon: - "this is a terrible case, hence X is scum" - "this is scum trying to save himself" - "this is scum trying to save a scumbuddy" But: - Weak cases are a necessary evil in the early game. Bad cases at this point should be null at best, and perhaps even contribute a town lean for effort. - why can't a townie want to save himself ? - why can't a townie want to save someone that they have a good reason to believe is town? There are equally valid townie explanations for many of the actions that we've seen, but the focus has been placed far too greatly upon trying to find any reason at all to cast someone as scummy. Take a moment, and remember: It's a newbie game. Now, it is not my intent to offer a free noob-pass to anyone, but I find it troubling that plays that are easily explained by hypothesis of inexperienced town and inexperienced blue are instead cast in the light of convoluted, gutsy expert scum conspiracies and gambits. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is my perspective, from a position where I remain as detached as I can from the shit-flinging (especially early D2). We are at MYLO, and I see my task now as very simple: find the scummiest player, and lynch them. This mantra, which I learned from my last game, is the only thing I can do now, and indeed the only thing any townie can do now. If we do it right, then we continue the hunt. If we do this wrong, we lose. I'm not being defeatist, I'm just being a realist -- this is the situation we find ourselves in. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 01 2013 03:00 glurio wrote: Either cake and slay or sn0 with slay/cora/cake are the scum. Hmm, thats four out of seven people. Wow. And if Zare dies tonight to eliminate the almost-confirmed townie who also happens to be possibly quite threatening with his play, that's four out of six! On February 01 2013 03:00 glurio wrote: What favors team lurker in my opinion is: no kill in the N1, so both lurkers really didn't send an action in. Also slays play in the beginning was scummy as hell. (Always points out he's noob town, who wants to be recognised as noob? No one will listen, it just doesn't make sense in my eyes.) Cake conveniently became active just before the D2 Lynch. Seeing his, mostly inactive, scum buddy parked on the claimed medic. So he tried to get him lynched earning him a ton of town cred. Either way he would win. Again with the implausible no nightaction assumption + association case without flip. Or trying to build an association case before flip so you can point to it as reason lynch me after you bus Slayalot with the rest of us? After all, he took quite a bit of heat toward the end of D2 and nearly got lynched instead of warbaby. On February 01 2013 03:00 glurio wrote: Now what i believe is more likely: sn0 is scum. Gambling with claiming cop and just one minute to late to unvote, what a shame! Could have unvoted 5 minutes earlier if u wanted, you were here the whole time. WIFOM. There are equally good town and scum explanations for what happened. nuff said. On February 01 2013 03:00 glurio wrote: You were the one who actually convinced me to keep my vote on warbaby with your whole "i don't wanna check him i wanna see him die." You didn't unvote, so i didn't. Thought the whole game you were right. Then while warbaby claimed, confusing everybody with "the real doctor shouldn't claim blahblah" and then went to "please claim real doctor" all the while after the claim staying on warbaby with your vote. Another guy shifting responsibility. What is it with all you guys, can't take responsibility for your votes? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 01 2013 07:27 cDgCorazon wrote: Sn0- [...] Why would the mafia not take a chance and get a free blue kill after the town killed off the other blue? It’s too tempting of a proposition to pass up. Because D3 is a 4-2 MYLO. Right now, Zare almost confirmed town, and you, Cora, are NOT confirmed. Killing Sn0 and flipping the cop gives us two 100% confirmed townies in 4-2 MYLO. It's completely plausible for scum to want to avoid that in favor of something more likely to give them the mislynch thay they need. Whereas, by killing Zare, there are actually ZERO confirmed townies, and scum can simply aim for a chaos play capitalizing on remaining doubts about Sn0 (and yourself), throwing suspicion around two or three targets looking for a mislynch. Confirming townies will not help scum, whereas keeping someone who is controversial alive may be a worthwhile gamble -- Sn0's cop claim is clearly not universally believed, and so even if he gets a useful check tonight, not everyone is going to believe it at face value. (a JK claim might even be used in a gambit to cause confusion.) Remember: all it takes is one stubborn misguided townie and two scum votes to lock in a mislynch. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 01 2013 09:11 Sn0_Man wrote: In case it isn't clear, my "last will" is that a) cora and zare are both confirmed town, and cakepie is not far behind b) as a result of A, glurio is scum A bit more closer to the deadline, please? Also please declare your night action target at XX:59:50 with justification for your choice. This will help if you actually survive. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
Zare: 100% confirmed town unless there is some really convoluted JK claim. Solid effort, not afraid to make cases and Sn0_Man: There is no way a scum Sn0 could safely claim cop when he did. I don't think we're looking at some complicated and daring scum gambit. This is more likely to be a true, goodwill attempt to prevent a Corazon mislynch. Also, any argument based on his failed late D2 vote switch is WIFOM and I will not accept it as strong evidence. He was at least considering and agonizing about the various possibilities presented. Corazon: Plays based on trying to foster discussion, trying to break up the pointless penis contest, and the mutual tunneling by Acid and warbaby. Unfortunately did not succeed in convincing people that he brought anything useful to the table himself, thus looks hypocritical. Buckled under pressure, but that is null in the newbie context. Right now, really needs to take off tinfoil hat for a moment. Acid: Got entangled in shit flinging with warbaby, then went WIFOM/OMGUS on Corazon. But not afraid to take a stance. Also, quickly saw the logical merits of not voting warbaby regardless of the truth of the doc claim. D1 was an issue, but has stepped things up late D2. Glurio: Never committed to a clear stance independently, although posts when prompted or questioned. Casts suspicions widely, but solidifies only on "safe", "fashion-of-the-moment" options votes, delivering just-before-hammer voting on both days. Did not entertain other possibilities, without any consideration at all, instead sheeping Sn0 to not move his vote. Slayalot: (out of time typing -- similar to glurio) | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 01 2013 04:00 cakepie wrote: Look at who among you are willing to come out and make controversial statements and possibly offend people. And look at who is simply content to safely cast weak suspicions all over the place without commitment, sheep opinions that are already expressed by other players, and wagon their vote without justification. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
Let's have that cop check result. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 01 2013 07:27 cDgCorazon wrote: After the craziness of D2, I want to get my thoughts in before the night lynch deadline. I’m actually writing this about 5 hours after the lynch, but I have a very busy day lined up tomorrow (today as this is being posted), and I would not have time to get anything in before the deadline unless I wrote it now. Sn0- Although he has been defending me most of the game, I’m suspicious of him. [...] That is such a terrible crumb. There's no system whatsoever to the way you claim to hide the message. Do you realize that it is technically possible to take any arbitrary, sufficiently long text, and pull out letters selectively to form almost any message one desires? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 01 2013 10:00 zarepath wrote: It's possible you should no-lynch tomorrow so you have the time to MAKE Sn0 either make two reads, or be lynched again by scum and still be in a good spot. What do people think about this? Do you think that if we no-lynch today, scum will have to kill Sn0 with the N3 nightkill? I feel that: If Sn0 is really cop, scum would be happy to let him get a check in and kill someone else instead. They can still discredit the hell out of him again on D4, it would be no different from today. If Sn0 is scum with cop fakeclaim, he'll live through to D4 anyways <-- this possibility enables the WIFOM value above. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For now, we've already heard from glurio during N2, but Slayalot has not posted in 28 hours. So I'm going to start with this and see where it takes us with regard to my two strongest scumreads. ##Vote: Slayalot ##FoS: glurio Reason: On February 01 2013 04:00 cakepie wrote: who is simply content to safely cast weak suspicions all over the place without commitment, sheep opinions that are already expressed by other players, and wagon their vote without justification. as well as voting patterns D1 voting + Show Spoiler + 27 21:17 zarepath -> AFKing 28 00:39 warbaby -> SkaPunk 28 03:41 Sn0_Man -> SkaPunk 28 03:59 cDgCorazon -> Abenson 28 05:08 Slayalot -> SkaPunk 28 05:22 glurio -> SkaPunk 28 08:35 warbaby -> Abenson 28 09:37 warbaby -> AFKing 28 09:55 cDgCorazon -> SkaPunk On a day where the town thing to do is to use your vote as a tool to drive activity ("post stuff or be lynched"), both Slayalot and glurio happily contribute the third and fourth votes on SkaPunk, significantly ahead of the voting deadline, with poor justification. With three inactives in AFK, Ska, and Acid (and the spurious Abenson), there are plenty of targets to spread the votes around on, and pressure for activity. Some people attempted to do this, after a fashion. Slayalot and glurio are among those who did not pressure well, and fired upon safe targets only. D2 voting + Show Spoiler + As at Slayalot's 31 Jan 07:02 KST vote: 29 10:46 Acid -> warbaby 29 11:02 warbaby -> Acid 29 15:30 warbaby -> -none- 30 02:38 Sn0_Man -> warbaby 30 07:57 cDgCorazon -> Acid 31 00:34 zarepath -> warbaby 31 03:06 warbaby -> Slayalot 31 05:38 glurio -> warbaby 31 06:31 zarepath -> -none- 31 06:37 warbaby -> glurio 31 07:02 Slayalot -> warbaby [...] warbaby (4): Acid, Sn0, The critical four votes. And then both conveniently disappear, with glurio making only a brief appearance during which he refuses to entertain alternative scenarios, in light of there being both a doc and cop claim. Slayalot hasn't even been seen since. I want to hear what he has to say, hence the vote on him rather than on glurio. In any case I'll happily lynch either of them. (Also, more WIFOM for glurio's WIFOM bonfire: you want to cast me as scumbuddies with slayalot, and make a case against me for bussing? HAVE AT IT. You think scum is willing to start a 4-2 MYLO day by initiating the wagon that will bus his scumbuddy? I don't think that idea is very sellable. [ see: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17684181 ]) | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 01 2013 11:26 cakepie wrote: That is such a terrible crumb. There's no system whatsoever to the way you claim to hide the message. Do you realize that it is technically possible to take any arbitrary, sufficiently long text, and pull out letters selectively to form almost any message one desires? I'm a little teapot.  meaningless example, but QED. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 01 2013 11:54 cDgCorazon wrote: Let's see what Sn0's check was before going any further (unless he said who he was checking before). ----- On February 01 2013 09:22 cakepie wrote: Also please declare your night action target at XX:59:50 with justification for your choice. This will help if you actually survive. On February 01 2013 09:59 Sn0_Man wrote: Night action: I'm checking acid because he's the loose cannon. Glurio *is* scum, acid is unknown, along with slay. I feel like a cleared acid is very powerful, and if hes scum then gg. On February 01 2013 10:08 cakepie wrote: GG zare! Let's have that cop check result. On February 01 2013 10:12 Sn0_Man wrote: Town. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 01 2013 12:48 cDgCorazon wrote: if Sn0 is telling the truth, the only possible scum are: Cakepie Glurio Slayalot Clearly, I get to use process of elimination to arrive at two scum, if I were to believe Sn0's cop claim and his two town checks. (Note that at this point, I consider Sn0's claims as admissible circumstantial evidence to be used in conjunction with my reads based on their play and voting, but not necessarily unassailable truth.) Anyone else subscribing to "Sn0 is telling the truth" needs to justify their choice of two of three possible scum (and by extension, who of three is town). Corazon will at some point need to explain where he derives the bias against Glurio and Slayalot from. He's almost given me a free pass, a dangerous thing to do at MYLO. + Show Spoiler + On February 01 2013 12:48 cDgCorazon wrote: I'm all for lynching either Glurio or Slayalot today. I want to see how both of them play out D3 before making a decision. Sn0 uses a town read on me to conclude glurio is scum and to decide to check Acid: + Show Spoiler + On February 01 2013 01:42 Sn0_Man wrote: This post occured shortly after my cop claim. I'd like to highlight it. At this point there were (I think, since we didn't have any votecounts) 4 on warbaby, 3 on Cora, 1 on Slay. Or something similar. Actually, Cakepie may have not voted at all, leaving it at 4-3 at that stage. Either way, I'd like to point out that right about here is where a scum would have done something like "OMFG LOOK AT DAT WARBABY SCUMMY AS HELL LETS VOTE HIM". Not being willing to be on a wagon is very townie. Scum are generally desperate for easy wagons to park their vote on, especially when warbaby and cora are both town. This actually narrows it down to (IMO) 3 possible scum candidates right now: Acid, Glurio and Slay. Now, if Slay is mafia, then so must be glurio (otherwise the votes make no sense, why would acid lynch a scumbuddy when he could totally have hammered WB with ease?. If slay is NOT mafia, then acid and glurio are the scumteam. EITHER WAY, GLURIO IS SCUM. As far as I'm concerned, Glurio is scum. He admits it's not ideal basis to make such a strong read: + Show Spoiler + On February 01 2013 01:57 Sn0_Man wrote: Okay maybe the read on cakepie is a little strong to base on just 1 post, but I thought that post was very indicative of his overall play. Without a red cop check, you're going to have to have a much stronger basis than just a read on a single post to eliminate me as possible scum. Acid gave a list early in N2, but I think that needs to be revisited in the context of new information i.e. zare's flip and sn0's claimed N2 green check. + Show Spoiler + On January 31 2013 11:50 Acid~ wrote: I know you all love list posts, so here it is: cDgCorazon: TOWN - conditional on Sn0_Man actually being cop cakepie: so far the vote and general attitude have me leaning TOWN Slayalot: this is not about lurking anymore, but deliberate inactivity and refusal to participate in the scumhunt. SCUM Sn0_Man: If he is scum, then he attacked Corazon d1 with the intention of proving him innocent d2, but Corazon wasn't under any scrutiny d1 apart from Sn0... plus the breadcrumbing early in the day... it doesn't make sense to me. Also, he switched off warbaby at the end and there is no way to tell if the precise last minute posting was intentional or not. Still, I noticed something but I'm not sure I want to talk about it yet. There is definitely a possible scenario where the scum team is Sn0_Man+Corazon but it requires no one to counterclaim cop which is a 50/50 gamble on their part. Tough call but... when in doubt refer to the simplest explanation, so: TOWN zarepath: playing about the same as in XXXV where he was town. N1 results + warbaby's claim make him a pretty strong TOWN read. glurio: Refused to switch off warbaby, general inactivity + there's no one else = SCUM glurio and slayalot can obviously also choose to believe Sn0 and then arrive at two scum by eliminating themselves with a town claim. However glurio will have a hard time making a scumteam of Slayalot + myself look plausible on the basis of Sn0's claimed cop checks -- he'd have to pull a 180 of a 180 of his read on Sn0 to get there. ================================================================================ I'm still trying to decide what to make of Corazon's ridiculous N2 deception plan and the associated crumb: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17687661 I've demonstrated how it the crumb is awful: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17687687 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17687837 Corazon has apologized for bad crumb: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17687707 and bad N2 play: + Show Spoiler + On February 01 2013 12:48 cDgCorazon wrote: I'm really sorry for the shitty N2. I've had a lot of work and school in the past 2 days (basically I've had 3-4 hours of free time in the past 36 hours), and all of the emotion I had to put into D2 really drained me. It should be clear that lying in a newbie game is generally unacceptable, so such deception play is already terribad on account of that alone. Additionally, the rationale behind the deception is ...questionable...? On February 01 2013 11:22 cDgCorazon wrote: If the general consensus is that Sn0 is cop, then the scum would've taken him out immediately. I faked a lack of consensus that Sn0 was cop (and the fact that not everyone was 100% sold on his claim) so that the scum would choose to lynch someone else, and Sn0's all-important check would be allowed to be heard today. Remember, we might have had Sn0 killed N2 giving two confirmed townies. Instead, our current situation is one where we have either: - 2 scum out of 3 candidates if you completely believe Sn0, or - Sn0 is a liar, but his scumbuddy could be almost anybody I am not completely sure which situation would have been better for us. On top of that, Corazon's little plan opens himself up to attack, provides ammunition for a Sn0-cora scumteam association case, and reopens a D2 can of worms. I'm also not completely convinced that if there had been no "artificial" suspicions on Sn0 from Corazon, scum would happily killed Sn0 and given us two confirmed townies with Sn0's cop flip on a 4-2 MYLO day. Lastly, Zarepath ended up being engaged in discussion with Corazon for a little bit due to this. How much of his will is influenced no thanks to being misled by Cora's play? How much of it is what he would have believed without that influence? We'll never know now. ================================================================================ On February 01 2013 12:48 cDgCorazon wrote:I'm going to take a few hours away from the game to clear my head and start being a good town player, not one who is being inhibitive to the scumhunt. Have a good night's sleep, come back fresh tomorrow. | ||
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The cop claim may look strong especially in the absence of a JK claim, but remember, a strong read is still not 100% certainty. Only a dead man's flip is certain. There remains the (admittedly slim) possibility that there is only Doc and no other power role in this game, and Sn0 is simply lying. @ Cora, Acid: "Sn0 has my alignment correct" should be a null tell. Scum with a cop fakeclaim could also trivially supply correct alignments, because they already know. DO NOT use this as basis to support your belief that he is honest. I've talked about it before ( here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17689059 ) but I want to reiterate: you are going to have to build more of a case to justify your voting today -- please do not rely too much on the basis of the cop check information. I'm not saying that I consider Sn0's claim to be a lie -- the claim is fairly strong. It serves as great backing evidence to go with my own reads. But it is not 100% unassailable, so I depend on what I see in the play of glurio and slayalot (although it is more like failure to actually play, in slay's case) Basically, what I'm trying to get at, is that this statement: On February 02 2013 00:47 Sn0_Man wrote: DO YOU BELIEVE ME? That question is the entirety of this game right now. BTW you is Acid/Cake/Cora. Slay/Glurio obviously won't believe me. That's not actually true at all. We all need to scumhunt for other supporting evidence against lynch targets, instead of simply banking on strong belief in a cop claim. ----- On February 02 2013 04:41 Sn0_Man wrote: I'd much rather consolidate on glurio than on slay, because of the very slight chance of a glurio/cake scumteam. Cakepie moving your vote to glurio would help assuage my fears on that. Glurio seems to be happy to continue digging his grave for the time being, and I think you'll continue to see that I have no problem with pointing out what's wrong with his play and posting behavior. Slayalot on the other hand is simply not even playing. He's gone for close to 42 hours, and then when he comes back, is simply content to let others do the playing and thinking for him: + Show Spoiler + On February 02 2013 00:51 Slayalot wrote: Hello guys 2 questions 1: Is the "no-lynch" off the table again? (Cause it makes alot of sense. Giving 1 more day to outnumber scum. If I understand correctly) 2: Has Acid been proven town or killed? Or why is no one talking about him? Since the page 1 isn't updated on "spoiler -flips" I don't konw how many are left. Can this either be updated or someone tell me. Talking about the no-lynch option clearly demonstrates that he is at least up to date on what is going on, even if it was just a quick skim through and not a thourough read of the thread. There's only like half a dozen posts involving "no-lynch" -- not hard to search and see what people think about it, and do a bit of your own logical thinking. Instead, all he does is post an inane question like "it makes sense to me, did we already rule it out?" without demonstrating any in depth consideration about what a no-lynch would entail (in fact, all that was already discussed quite well.) And the question about acid is just lazy. And now he is gone from the thread again. This is no way for a townie to be playing at 4:2 MYLO. I want to make him post more, so that we have something to work with. Whereas we've already got more from Glurio to pore over. (Yes, this game is so pathetic that I have to play D3 like it's D1.) So, my vote stays on Slayalot, while I will continue prodding glurio with a strong FoS. I will not shut the door on glurio just yet -- he's got ONE CHANCE to demonstrate that we're wrong about him being scum, and that he is town. As long as we get him to continue posting, that is net positive for town. He can either successfully exonerate himself, or give us more evidence to use against him. So far it's looking more like the latter, though. | ||
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On February 02 2013 07:24 Sn0_Man wrote: The game is actually all figured out, but I'm the only person who *knows* I'm cop (except cora has a pretty good idea because I cop-claimed to save him and he knows he's town). There are no other real explanations. Sure, you can "scumhunt" today to see if you believe me or not, but the entire game is solved one way or the other based on everybody's belief of my cop claim. And since there are 4 town 2 scum, I'd rather get 3 people on glurio ASAP so that 1 misled townie can't make a mislynch happen. We have 26+ hours to work with here. The game may be solved from your perspective, but I don't see why the rest of us should not spend this available time to find other evidence that would help bolster our confidence that it's glurio being scum with his most likely partner being slayalot. Additionally, like I said already, *I* can narrow it down to glurio and slayalot. The rest of you -- this includes you, Sn0 -- also still have to convince yourselves that the last scum is slayalot rather than me. But slay has given us practically nothing to work with. Suppose we all sit around and thumb ass, and correctly lynch scum glurio correctly. His scumbuddy does not concede, someone dies N3. We go into D4 at 3-1 MYLO again. Why not use the time right now to generate more activity that can only help us with our analysis, both today in D3 and possibly tomorrow? | ||
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On February 02 2013 07:47 Sn0_Man wrote: Either I die in that scenario, or I have a cop check to establish the last scum. Its pretty much the same thing to me, but I guess I'm a bit over-fatalistic here. You are completely pragmatic and absolutely correct. Those are precisely the only two sensible options assuming a glurio lynch today flips scum. The corollary of that, of course, is that I don't need to convince you of anything. If you live, you solve the game using your powers, period. If you die, I need to convince Cora and Acid that I am town. Not you, Sn0. I don't need to worry about what you think. I'm playing for the endgame. ----- On February 02 2013 07:47 Sn0_Man wrote: As I said previously, I'd like you to vote for glurio asap (YOU TOO CORA) so that we have the first timestamp on a 3-vote, just in case I can't convince the rest of town (acid). Since, while I'd like consensus, at this point really we have a first-to-three gets lynched scenario. Why can't you trust Acid more? In your perspective, he is confirmed town. And when I finally got in at the end of D2 and proposed alternative wagon on either glurio or slay, he was the first to act on it, planting the first vote back onto slayalot. He had good clarity of thought under time pressure (<1h to deadline): + Show Spoiler + On January 31 2013 10:00 Acid~ wrote: I know how you feel, but play Pascal's wager on this. If war is scum and you lynch him, you probably die tonight. If war is scum and you save him, you die tonight and we lynch him tomorrow. If war is medic and you lynch him, we lose medic and cop If war is medic and you save him, he dies tonight but we save you. Adding that if war is medic and you are cop, you know zare and cora are innocent and you can check glurio I just don't see a town Acid being the one stubborn town that combines with two scum to deliver the required 3 votes to mislynch. | ||
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Corazon, you've chosen to ignore everything I've said over the earlier part of D3. You've already used up your quota of noob allowance this game. I will not allow you to continue playing like this. It is anti-town. Even if you are VT, this does not help the rest of town figure out D3, and certainly does not help us if we do get to D4. BRB once I grab a sammich. | ||
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On February 03 2013 02:19 cDgCorazon wrote: Fine Cake, I shall rephrase. He's trying to convince us he is not scum with an argument that, to me, does not compute. How could I possibly vote for Sn0 over him? You completely miss the point. Here's my biggest beef with you: On February 03 2013 02:05 cakepie wrote: Corazon, you've chosen to ignore everything I've said over the earlier part of D3. Like these things, yah?: + Show Spoiler + On February 01 2013 16:48 cakepie wrote: Anyone else subscribing to "Sn0 is telling the truth" needs to justify their choice of two of three possible scum (and by extension, who of three is town). Corazon will at some point need to explain where he derives the bias against Glurio and Slayalot from. He's almost given me a free pass, a dangerous thing to do at MYLO. + Show Spoiler + On February 01 2013 12:48 cDgCorazon wrote: I'm all for lynching either Glurio or Slayalot today. I want to see how both of them play out D3 before making a decision. On February 02 2013 07:15 cakepie wrote: Guys, I want to emphasize that we cannot simply play today based solely on the reasoning that: "I strongly believe Sno's cop claim and his green checks, therefore we've already solved this game easily". Over reliance on blue powers, and thus slacking off on your own scumhunting, is a poor way to play and will not help you improve. [...] @ Cora, Acid: "Sn0 has my alignment correct" should be a null tell. Scum with a cop fakeclaim could also trivially supply correct alignments, because they already know. DO NOT use this as basis to support your belief that he is honest. [...] Basically, what I'm trying to get at, is that this statement: That's not actually true at all. We all need to scumhunt for other supporting evidence against lynch targets, instead of simply banking on strong belief in a cop claim. On February 02 2013 07:37 cakepie wrote: We have 26+ hours to work with here. The game may be solved from [Sn0's] perspective, but I don't see why the rest of us should not spend this available time to find other evidence that would help bolster our confidence that it's glurio being scum with his most likely partner being slayalot. All you've given is this bloody weak sauce: + Show Spoiler + Even Sn0 told you this was bad and wrong. And: + Show Spoiler + On February 02 2013 16:11 cDgCorazon wrote: Well since I know I am town, I'm certain that you are Cop. I'm going to vote for Glurio because of all the arguments above (voting history, activity level) and the fact that his arguments aren't good enough to convince me that Sn0 is town (the emotional "Sn0scum" BS is ridiculously suspicious as well). ##Vote: Glurio A scum flip on Glurio would basically confirm everything about Sn0 and all of the webs interlinking with that (I'll save association cases for after the lynch). [...] this is basically locking in my vote. You won't get a chance to do D4 association cases if we mess up and mislynch today. A town flip on Glurio would basically end the game in a loss for town. You haven't demonstrated enough due diligence with your D3 decision yet. In fact, you're coming dangerously close to looking like: On February 01 2013 04:00 cakepie wrote:sheep opinions that are already expressed by other players, and wagon their vote without justification. | ||
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@ Cora: My requests were clear: - "do not rely too much on the basis of the cop check information" and "scumhunt for other supporting evidence against lynch targets, instead of simply banking on strong belief in a cop claim." -- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17697504 - scumhunt in order to " find other evidence that would help bolster our confidence [in whatever lynch target]" -- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17697668 - "[demonstrate] due diligence with your D3 decision" -- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17703141 Emotional brinkmanship is not going to help you convince anyone of anything. | ||
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On February 03 2013 03:49 cDgCorazon wrote: I'm going to play the fucking game the way I want to Right back atcha. Acid, are you still around? | ||
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If I take the easy option, and simply believe Sn0, then obviously the scumteam is glurio and slayalot. However, if I don't believe Sn0, then he is clearly scum, and anyone else could be his scumbuddy. Corazon is the foremost candidate for that position, by the sheer amount of saving one another that went on between them. ----- The problem with a glurio + slayalot scumteam is that the case for that is hilariously weak. Here's what I said earlier in D3: On February 01 2013 11:40 cakepie wrote: I'm going to start with this and see where it takes us with regard to my two strongest scumreads. ##Vote: Slayalot ##FoS: glurio Reason: as well as voting patterns The funny thing is, this was the truth: my strongest scumreads rely on a bunch of lousy voting patterns and handwavy judgement of playstyle. That's really only slightly scummy. Acid nailed it on the head: On February 03 2013 02:37 Acid~ wrote: There's not enough activity from glurio to make a case. Bottom line is, I think glurio's activity is consistent with a lazy townie. It's also consistent with scum. Only a good faith belief in Sn0's cop claim can provide (conditional) strong support to the case -- conditional, because it depends on if you believe Sn0. I did mention that initially leaned towards: On February 01 2013 10:00 cakepie wrote: Sn0_Man: There is no way a scum Sn0 could safely claim cop when he did. I don't think we're looking at some complicated and daring scum gambit. This is more likely to be a true, goodwill attempt to prevent a Corazon mislynch. On February 02 2013 07:15 cakepie wrote: I'm not saying that I consider Sn0's claim to be a lie -- the claim is fairly strong. It serves as great backing evidence to go with my own reads. But I also left open this possibility: On February 02 2013 07:15 cakepie wrote: it is not 100% unassailable, And I have been doing my due diligence to go back in the thread to re-test my own belief that Sn0's cop claim is unsafe for scum, and is "too complicated" under occam's razor. Meanwhile, I've also been exhorting others to try to scumhunt further instead of relying on a set of claims alone. There are cases to be made -- but no one actually tried hard enough. Glurio made a half-assed attempt, and that's pretty much it. I left an opening for people to actually play, but it didn't happen. - Slayalot is not even a player at this point. - Glurio put in some weak sauce, and left to go party. - Sn0 won't do anything except bank on his cop claim. - Cora doesn't want to play along, just wanted to bank everything on Sn0, and then goes into martyrdom brinkmanship mode. - Acid is too frustrated to care any more. - FUCKING SHIT-FLINGING FEST ENSUES Now it is clear to me that if you want things done right, you'll have to do it yourself. Sn0 + Cora scumteam hypothesis narrative coming up, next post. Still drafting. Because I will leave no stone unturned. Sn0's claim is indeed everything that will swing this game one way or the other, and I am determined to weigh both possibilities carefully before we settle this. | ||
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On February 03 2013 06:16 Acid~ wrote: First I want to see who/if I can get behind on a Cora lynch. Your best bet would be me, because sn0 won't do it, and we have no idea what is up with the other two. It won't work without at least one of them if cora unvotes himself. | ||
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This is what things look like to me through a Sn0+Cora scumteam hypothesis goggles. ========== Day 1 corazon fluff about confirmation bias and meta, and then listing lurkers http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17636349 brief warbaby vs acid happens. Sn0 asserts his belief that both warbaby and acid are trying to take control of town, rather than actually scumhunting http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17641802 warbaby vs Sn0 happens. corazon makes some useless side comments http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17639117 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17642031 and goes back to just listing lurkers http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17642563 and calling out the penis contest http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17643306 Sn0 votes, and leaves http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17646502 His second vote on SkaPunk makes the wagon credible and enables others to wagon on. Both scum and silly townie sheep can easily bandwagon. zare actually sounds like a voice of reason amidst the whole mess http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17644643 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17648807 Night 1 Sn0 soft busses Cora on setup details. Zare makes a case on Cora without relying on the setup error: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17653902 Glurio and and slayalot both cast some WIFOM suspicion toward warbaby. There is some bollocks going on about warbaby looks scummy by association with mocsta meta -- complete bollocks, I am amazed how that was even admissible to anyone. Zare actually speaks sense here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17655668 But Acid makes a late night case against warbaby. What would a Sn0+Cora scumteam do here? glurio and slayalot aren't very active or useful, they are not a threat, and can be manipulated. Acid could be painted as going apeshit all over warbaby, plus he was gone for a good chunk and did not vote. safe to keep around. AFK (later replaced by myself late in N1) was an unknown factor, could be left for later. Zare makes reasonable, sensible arguments. Warbaby also demonstrated that he is a highly active player who will engage and spar with anyone. Kill Zare. He is able to remain calm, and use sound reason. Why not warbaby? because Warbaby looks more likely to be influenceable, and it looks possible to drive a mislynch on him. Role Check Warbaby might have happened or not. Not too important. ========== Day 2 The nightkill fails. Was Zare saved by a doc, or saved by a JK? The day opens with warbaby vs acid. Corazon tries to sound reasonable, but then FoS into warbaby for continued tunnelling When warbaby tries to post reason for others, corazon paints it with emotional appeal: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17658510 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17658553 Sn0 is the first with the setup speculation: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17662395 warbaby's post here is telling in hindsight: On January 30 2013 02:04 warbaby wrote: I'd love to discuss what actually happened N1, which I see as a great win for town. Note that there is one variation of the setup that allows for both JK and Doc (if I'm not reading the wiki wrong here -- love to see our authority on math and statistics, Acid~, to contribute on this point, but he's probably won't bother responding to this post, assuming he ever reads it). If the blue is doc, should they claim? I don't think it was clairvoyant that nobody died N1 (and I think you sound like a sadscum by saying this), I think it was just damned lucky. Probably won't happen again, and there's a chance the Doc (if there is one) will be killed before they can do anything more useful. If the doc exists and claims, and scum kills them, we end up with a 100% confirmed town and a no kill on Night 1. Is this good for town? I'm not sure if this makes sense. I haven't put a lot of thought into reasons and possible results around town power role claims. "I made a lucky save. Does it make sense for me to make a claim?" If scumteam realized this, they would have suspected warbaby to be doc. (Or they might have already had a rolecop check) Warbaby makes a side comment about not believing in clairvoyance. Scumteam could read this as a confirmation that "I did not see clearly, I just made a lucky save" Sn0 latches on to the comment on clairvoyance as justification for his vote. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17663135 This is complete bullshit, of course. Zare convinces warbaby with calm reason to try making other cases. You can see why he would comply, since he had zare confirmed town. I appear and mention the fact that JK blocks result in a notification. This is news to Sn0. Scumteam now knows that they were not blocked by JK. He figures out the implications: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665292 As Acid makes his reappearance, Corazon comes in to offer a polar choice: Lynch either WB or Acid. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665711 At 26 hours to go, he just wants to mislynch either of the guys who are actively prying around. It is convenient that they tunnel one another. Continuing lack of JK claim or roleblocked claims increases confidence of scumteam that they know the setup http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665775 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665787 Acid vs Corazon happens. There is a lot of WIFOM. Zare starts casting some real suspicions against Corazon, backed by a strong read of hypocrisy from Corazon http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673093 Sn0 rushes to dismiss the possibility of a Corazon wagon http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673269 Zare also posts a case on warbaby. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673310 Sn0 likes this case much better! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673365 At the same time there is some suspicion cast lightly toward Zare: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673448 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17674187 Warbaby falls back to a lurker lynch. Gets goaded into making a very ill-advised softclaim. Sn0 presses him for a hard claim. Scum wants blue to out! Unfortunately there is no way out of it. Acid and zare are also pressing for the claim. Glurio's vote adds pressure since he actually looks like might get lynched. Warbay claims at January 31 2013 06:04. zare unvotes, but slaylot votes on. the four votes on warbaby are Acid, Sn0, glurio, Slayalot. Corazon refuses to move onto warbaby. He needs to stay off the wagon for now http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17676374 Sn0 backs him up: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17676429 But then there is actually some momentum toward a Corazon wagon. As momentum builds, Sn0 tries to save Cora again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17676827 It gets to: warbaby (3): Corazon (3): Acid, zarepath, warbaby Corazon shits his pants. There are 8 players, he NEEDS to vote warbaby to bring it to 4, because he has no way of knowing what I would do. Acid points out that Sn0 has been crumbing Cora: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17677383 Except, Acid, those are not breadcrumbs at all. It is only a crumb if Sn0 used steganography in N1 to indicate that he intended to check Cora. This is what real crumbs look like: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386911¤tpage=73#1460 What happens is that this presents an opening to Sn0 Cora scumteam -- they can try to risk a fakeclaim here to save Cora. It is actually a modersately safe claim, because they are fairly certain that there is no JK. They will risk a possible cop counterclaim, because no one has come out with a cop claim yet, despite the whole day. The bet is this: a cop would know that by claiming, there would be a confirmed doc+cop setup, the strongest setup possible. The game then becomes a simple follow-the cop. With D1+D2 mislynch, N1 nokill, and N2 doc kill, the cop would have 3 confirmed reads (2 from cop checks, one is Zare=town) in a 6 player game on D3. It would be easy! The lack of this makes it quite safe for Sn0 to cop claim. The problem is, he insists on not seeing the simple follow-the-cop for the win. Even if warbaby is scum with doc fakeclaim, we'd have dead cop with a town read on Cora, and a confirmed scum in warbaby.. also EZ-PZ. This is what makes Sn0's failure to switch off warbaby really scummy. Night 2 Cora finds himself in a bad position, so he throws shit at zare: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17679171 We all call him out for it. Sn0+cora worry that if Sn0 stays alive, he will get lynched because town won't believe in a situation that scum does not kill the cop claim. My posts and reasoning leaves them a way out of the situation -- but there does not look like there is enough controversy around Sn0. Only glurio threw some shit at Sn0. So, Cora tries stupid convoluted tricks to give plausibility to the scenario that Sn0 lives. The expected happens: we lose a confirmed town. But Zare points out one important thing On February 01 2013 10:00 zarepath wrote: If Sn0_Man is not killed, I really suggest that you look at his filter, and the thread leading up to his cop claim. He only cop claimed after Cora was under a lot of attack and Acid is the one who suggested that he was breadcrumbing and cop claiming before he actually cop claimed -- and his earlier posts make it seem as though he didn't know the setup blue possibilities despite bieng cop. His breadcrumbs aren't entirely justified. And his late post seems SUPER scummy. The thing is, I can totally see and understand a scum team realizing that if they don't do something, they're pretty much done for, and they ahve to take the 1-in-3 chance (closer to 1-in-2 because there was no evidence of a JK) to cop claim. It wasn't really meditated; Acid kind of just forced him into it (incidentally), and it was worth the risk. And like I already said a couple of times, those aren't even real breadcrumbs. ========== Day 3 Sn0 and Cora won't work with me, shit fest happens. ========== TL;DR: Zare is right about why Sn0's claim looks off. ##Unvote ##Vote: cdgCorazon | ||
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cakepie
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Explain your D2 and N2, and show us by other means why the scum are glurio and/or Slay. Sn0: Why should I vote you, when your death does not fully confirm Cora scum? I play to win. If cora flips scum, then you must be scum. The reverse is not true, in spite of the association between the two of you. Show us why your cop claim is actually credible, and walk us through your D2 through the eyes of a cop. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 03 2013 07:23 Sn0_Man wrote: Immediately post-night 2, glurio comes out swinging because he knows he *has* to discredit me or he loses. He makes more in-depth posts than ever before and they are extremely tunnelled on me (admittedly mine are equally tunnelled on him). After basically blowing his cover (since his previous excuse was basically bad/lazy town), he retreats into hiding hoping the seeds of doubt he has sown blossom and grow. He has flung his shit and has no real content to provide so he resumes lurking. And over the course of this day, instead of clearing stuff up, the rest of town decides that it wants to lynch... Corazon? what is up here? There is no possible way from any perspective that corazon is the right lynch. However, cakepie's obsession with "playing the game" have resulted in more uncertainty and lack of clarity. If you choose to believe that glurio is just a lazy townie, then explain his outburst post-N2, especially how well he grasped my options as cop and how scum could abuse them to make me look scummy. He clearly had spent a ton of time thinking on it and working through the possibilities. Not really consisted with lazy town IMO, but very consistent with lurky scum. See, this is the sort of thing I wanted sooner. On February 03 2013 07:23 Sn0_Man wrote: I don't know what else to say. There is no playing left for me. I have solved the game, provided as much info to you as possible, and now I await the jury's choice. The jury needs convincing. You have to bring other evidence besides a policeman's testimony. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
I've got the response that I need from Sn0. ##unvote ##vote: glurio I had to turn confirmation bias on so hard in order to make that bullshit case. Details briefly, just needed the vote switch in asap. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
- it is the mother of all association cases without flip - the whole D1/N1 speculation on what happened is WIFOM. In particular, the choice for scum to kill Zare N1 is equally valid for other scumteams. - Corazon voting Acid D2 was not unjustified, just poorly justified. - Sn0's second vote on warbaby is not flippant. He did indeed take issue with warbaby's play, and painting him as "sadscum". The justification may not be strongest, but most importantly Sn0 understood the significance of his vote: to force warbaby to defend himself and his behavior, rather than brush it off. - a lot of the D2 WIFOM I put out is equally explainable by Sn0 with a green check on Cora. - slayalot votes onto warbaby to replace zare. this is incriminating for slayalot too, with lack of justification. zare unvotes, but slaylot votes on. the four votes on warbaby are Acid, Sn0, glurio, Slayalot. - Corazon shits his pants at impending lynch is technically null. - Sn0's failure to switch is null, as I have described before. - Cora's N2 is easily bad town. - and lastly On February 01 2013 10:00 zarepath wrote: [...]. He only cop claimed after Cora was under a lot of attack Well duh, he didn't want to out himself so soon if he could help it. On February 01 2013 10:00 zarepath wrote: his earlier posts make it seem as though he didn't know the setup blue possibilities despite bieng cop. He is the cop, does not believe warbaby, thinks it could be cop+VT or cop+JK or cop+doc. For a stretch of time, he even believed that there was a real doc who should not counter claim and expose himself yet. The simple explanation is that Sn0 was just wrong about warbaby. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 03 2013 08:41 Acid~ wrote: I'm at a loss here. I'll go with the strategy that won us the last game, but I really hate the implications. You have any better ideas? Because my case was complete bullshit and I had trouble making myself believe it. And glurio's pleading isn't gaining any traction with me. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 01 2013 22:03 glurio wrote: Look at sn0s voting pattern and don't just cherry pick what fits your agenda. On February 02 2013 23:38 glurio wrote: Right. It's just as incriminating as mine or slays, which i thought cakepie should've also highlighted. So i did highlight it in a fitting color. It's a different thing to make a wagon credible with a second vote, as opposed to blind bandwagoning for critical mass. ----- On February 03 2013 09:09 glurio wrote: Sn0 has shown no single argument why i should be scum except "i figured the game out" or "thats the only possible combination". How can you believe such weak evidence when you got so much evidence against him and cora? You mean my bullshit "case"? It doesn't hold water under scrutiny, and I didn't even believe it myself. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 03 2013 09:44 Acid~ wrote: No, that's what makes me sad. I really believe glurio is scum, which means Corazon is town. I think that's going to be it for me on the mafia games for a while. I won't blame you for wanting to take a break after this game, but know this: - This game is completely out of whack. Most games aren't like that. When I did my catching up and saw a 5.5-player D1 (I count many people as not playing or half-playing) with a tainted voting record (abenson), and the whole early-mid D2 mess I was like, what the fuck did I just replace into? And I still feel that way. BTW Hey can I get a refund on my newbie game quota? - Your logical deduction, when you chose to use it, was excellent. I really hope you don't let this game discourage you from playing in future. - Aggressive and abrasive is a perfectly valid playstyle to adopt. Just watch yourself and don't overstep the line and become personally nasty. (You're not the only one at fault for that in this game.) Don't worry about offending people -- it's a game, and if they can't take it, that's their problem, not yours. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
Yes, we could no-lynch and see if slayalot gets modkilled, but I think most of us would rather just end this game now. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
On February 04 2013 13:12 iamperfection wrote: guess who asked for the most coaching Warbaby? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
My tl;dr postmoretem is basically I think on D3 I was worrying too much about a D4 scenario where it is down to Acid, Cora, slayalot, and myself, trying too hard to play a game that was basically over. Should have just followed my own advice, lynch scummiest player, sit and wait. About D2: Although not participating actively D2, I did get to skim the thread at around 6~7 hours before deadline, but had to leave for work commitments at about the time when warbaby started softclaiming and did not have enough time to put together a solid post to state my belief in his innocence. I also thought that people would be able to see that we had to keep him alive, but turns out, I was wrong. Imagine my horror when I came back, and catching up on pp 20~25 I find all my null and town reads flinging mud at one another while my scumreads got pretty much a free pass to sheep (which they did, increasing my suspicions on them). I wanted to vote with warbaby on glurio or slayalot, but things were moving way too fast -- particularly when Sn0's cop claim came up I knew I had to jump in and post spontaneously rather than try to draft a longer post. Good thing Acid also saw the obvious solution at about the same time, but disappointing we could not get Sn0's switch in time and simply win there. About N2/D3: Glurio's posting late D2 and in N2 was incredibly scummy, but Corazon managed to muddy things up again in N2, and that evidently affected zarepath's will post as well. It did throw me off balance for a bit, and without any clear signal from Acid on how he felt about Cora, I wanted to try and coax both Acid and Cora to come out and lay out some cases or reasoning, and earn some town cred to improve townreads on them. In hindsight I completely botched this -- should have remembered that these were the same guys going at each others' throats for a good chunk of the game. Turns out Corazon wasn't really in a state to take pressure anymore, even after taking a short break. Things completely break down again. Since scum didn't even dare to take the opening that I'd left to make a substantial Sno-Cora case (for us to bash to pieces!), I ended up offering my goggles-fully-on case to see if Acid would be able to spot the inconsistencies, but all I got was Sn0 starting to panic. Once it became clear that Acid wasn't going to say much about it, and corazon had actually left after voting himself, I decided it was time to end the charade. In hindsight I feel that it was a big mistake to actually vote Corazon along with the case, which would have made it look like I actually believed that stuff. (Well no, actually the mistake might have been even making that post to begin with.) Happily for us glurio goes into super scummy try-hard mode with like 20 min to go, which together with his N2 and early D3 posts really sealed the deal and confirmed him as the correct choice for both Acid and myself. ========== I feel like I need to explain my "newbie refund" comment to avoid any misunderstandings. It is not directed at anyone's play, it is a statement about: - how the whole game felt incredibly "WTF" -- this is a confluence of many factors, and I blame no individual for this - how the game was pretty much over just as my schedule allowed me to actually become active, so I technically didn't even have to do all that stuff in N2 and D3 if I didn't want to. But that's par for the course for a replacement I guess. At least I didn't get NK immediately. ========== On February 03 2013 15:18 cDgCorazon wrote: However, Cake blamed me for sheeping, and decided to vote me. I was really pissed that he could not see I was bad town, and that Glurio was bad scum. [...] I wasn't going to back down because if Cake and Acid could not use logic, I would have kept the vote on myself and basically force the town to lose the game because of it's stupidity. Believe it or not, I did believe that you had simply botched D2+N2, and I was trying to offer an opportunity for you to reestablish some cred, and pushing you to do it, hoping that you'd be in a better state to play after some rest. But I mismanaged it, my bad. Since I was "fresh" I failed to properly judge how emotionally spent you guys already were. On February 03 2013 15:18 cDgCorazon wrote: When I played XXXIII (and I guess to a lesser extent, XXXIV), I was on Winter Break. I had all the time in the world to refresh the page and read everything through. This time, I didn't have that luxury. You and me both. I was just fortunate that my schedule opened up, and the fact that I was busy earlier allowed me to stay out of the fray. ========== On February 03 2013 16:10 Sn0_Man wrote: I also mentioned this earlier (I think) but this setup looks ridiculously town favoured, although I'll admit that the medic save working Night 1 is not gonna be that common. And I guess my cop claim was pretty lucky for me (in the end) because scum would have killed me if I hadn't claimed (funnily enough). The 2of4 setup is not that imbalanced at all. What happened in this game was actually unusual, but it is best understood as a consequence of a dice roll giving us this particular setup, in combination with the D1 play. In particular, day 1 was like a 5 or 5.5 player game in which only very few people were highly active. Zare was such an obvious target for scum kill / medic protect; scum rolecop just needed to pick from the remaining actives. Cora and warbaby were both excellent choices for cop check, and Cora, Acid and warbaby were all controversial players inviting N2 soft cases and D2 mislynch target. On February 03 2013 16:10 Sn0_Man wrote: [..] lynching the uncontested medic claim, [..] It did bring a lot of clarity (for me at least). Clarity for you is useless when the correct thing for scum to do would be to kill you. I had serious concerns about whether I would be able to convince Corazon not to mislynch Acid together with the scum if that scenario had happened, which was why I played up the fact that killing zare would leave us with no confirmed townies. I guess Cora's little deception also helped convince scum to try to play to discredit you -- although it also had negative repercussions for us. ========== On February 03 2013 20:14 JacobStrangelove wrote: It was an interesting game to obs, the end was kinda crazy I almost thought you guys would wifom your way into stupidity. You have to be 100% sure to pull those kinda moves on mylo. That said I did do it before successfully but that is because I was 100% sure of my reads and was confirmed town basically (forced the vote switch with that power) I think it was cake that said even he wasn't convinced of his own case. Nah, I knew that it was a load of weak WIFOM, which was why I:
On February 03 2013 20:14 JacobStrangelove wrote: For instance Sno knew the game was solved but you can't relax right then you have to convince everyone you know are town why it's right. If you ground it into them there is no possibility for error. This, very much, was what I was trying to get out of him (and Cora). At least Sn0 immediately attacked the obvious weak points of the rubbish hypothesis. ========== On February 04 2013 08:06 glurio wrote: I'd like to apologize to everyone for me being so inactive. I actually was lurking a lot this game. After the last game i wanted to contribute much more but rolled scum and often was too scared to post. Because everything i wrote up sounded incredibly scummy or stupid, so i didn't. Since most of town were killing each other anyway. You guys basically threw away a game that town handed to you on a silver platter on early-to-mid D2. When town starts fighting with itself so hard, even better for you to get active and try to sound reasonable, or join the fray and foster more chaos. Choosing to have both scum wagon weakly onto an ongoing mislynch and then disappearing for a large chunk of the day is the last thing you want to do in that situation. I already had both of you pegged for doing that D1, and when I saw the same again on D2 it just stood out way too much, especially in contrast to the acerbic argument that was going on. When I was reading to catch up and saw warbaby's trying to get votes on you guys for "lurking", I wanted to vote with him because not because of the lurking, but because of your scummy voting. However things were really started to explode and under the time pressure of impending deadline I failed to elaborate properly other than stating: (Basis: voting patterns) Having said that, scum can be really hard to play as a beginner; better luck next time! On February 04 2013 08:06 glurio wrote: I'll try to make the next game more fun for everyone. Hey guys pre-emptive scumclaim, right here!  | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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