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On January 14 2013 03:16 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:14 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 03:10 Clarity_nl wrote:On January 14 2013 03:09 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 03:07 Clarity_nl wrote:On January 14 2013 03:04 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 03:02 Clarity_nl wrote:On January 14 2013 03:00 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 02:57 gonzaw wrote:
So what are he chances for town to win this game? I got really lucky n1 that I figured out everyone's role (besides screwing up lyncher <-> shrink). Without that it's fairly decent. You've got a 1 in 3 chance to lynch into jester / lynchers target if you lynch d1 (assuming it'l work and as we just saw it does when people don't know what's going on...). I've got a 1 in 5 chance to hit the PGO at night which makes town win. I've got a 1 in 5 chance to convert the shrinked guy which is PRETTY much gg unless mafia has perfect knowledge of roles. The thing is you're not forced to nk, are you? So you can take infinite time to figure it all out. On January 14 2013 03:01 Dandel Ion wrote:On January 14 2013 03:00 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 02:59 Dandel Ion wrote:
[quote]
Not bad, I'd think.
yak dies pretty easily. If I knew who was the shrink I could have betrayed toad but I had no idea great job dandel =( If you read the OP, you could also have  Play nice! same goes for you. I have infinite time to figure out people by pm'ing them, you can do the EXACT same thing as town. I figured out people by taking the risk to shoot n1 because I thought I have to with everyone calling me a liar and the general unwillingness to talk with me in pms... Wether I take the risk and shoot / convert into town or you take the risk and lynch doesn't change that much. No, there is no risk to lynch. We literally cannot lynch scum with 6 people. Maybe everyone figures everything out, including you, but you are the only one who knows what your night actions are. With infinite amount of time you will eventually make the right choice. Yeah it's a bit theoretical but at the very least there can be no lynch on day 1 if everyone plays proper. You literally could not have lynched Jester or mafia this cycle either, yet it happened. No, there is a distinct difference. Especially since I claimed to have turned into a vt. Town needs a majority or they cannot lynch scum, if they cannot lynch scum they should no lynch and BECAUSE TOWN HAS HALF THE VOTES, THERE CANNOT BE A LYNCH. the difference is that town thought you're a townie and thought it's possible to lynch mafia this cycle, which was not true? Same could happen with the lyncher thinking someone is town REALLY strongly d1 and therefore giving into lynching the mafia. Why would a lyncher lynch town that is not his target? It just makes it harder for the lyncher to lynch his target down the road. Even if the lyncher wanted this somehow, why would any townie vote for anyone KNOWING that they cant lynch scum.
that's how you're supposed to figure out people's alignments. You can't just NL and do nothing as town because as you said, mafia has a slight advantage on figuring out people and just needs to figure out either the shrink or the medic to win this, which will happen eventually.
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On January 14 2013 03:19 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:17 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 03:11 Clarity_nl wrote:
There is nothing anyone can say or do to make a lynch happen day 1 unless people are mentally ill.
My claim this cycle however was believable which made the townies think they could lynch scum, unfortunately they went for iamp but wcyd If they had went for toad you'd have lost right? Then why did you claim Because if we had a no-lynch then I die either straight away, or a cycle later. This was the ONLY point where town had a majority (if I were telling the truth), unless toad somehow kills iamp, in which case I still would have lost had they lynched toad.
edited my post above. I think you claiming and making town feel like lynching some will make you lose either way.
The only candidates are toad and iamp
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Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel
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On January 14 2013 03:20 JieXian wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:19 Clarity_nl wrote:On January 14 2013 03:17 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 03:11 Clarity_nl wrote:
There is nothing anyone can say or do to make a lynch happen day 1 unless people are mentally ill.
My claim this cycle however was believable which made the townies think they could lynch scum, unfortunately they went for iamp but wcyd If they had went for toad you'd have lost right? Then why did you claim Because if we had a no-lynch then I die either straight away, or a cycle later. This was the ONLY point where town had a majority (if I were telling the truth), unless toad somehow kills iamp, in which case I still would have lost had they lynched toad. edited my post above. I think you claiming and making town feel like lynching some will make you lose either way. The only candidates are toad and iamp
well he was 100% certain he can't win by doing nothing. It's like claiming SK as SK. It's utterly retarded but a 1% chance to win by town screwing up big time is better than sitting ducks on your 0% winchace.
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On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel
a 4th townie makes it impossible for mafia to win.
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On January 14 2013 03:22 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel a 4th townie makes it impossible for mafia to win.
Why
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On January 14 2013 03:23 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:22 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel a 4th townie makes it impossible for mafia to win. Why
because you already have a 25/50 % chance to insta-lose as mafia if you try to kill people and you even have to kill one more guy that way.
It might work if you take out the shrink or the PGO and add 2 VTs instead, idk.
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On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel
Hmm ok. Thing is he was convinced that you are the shrink and I don't know what you 2 said to each other. That's how you knew you were going to get NKed?
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On January 14 2013 03:25 JieXian wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel Hmm ok. Thing is he was convinced that you are the shrink and I don't know what you 2 said to each other. That's how you knew you were going to get NKed?
well he saw mafia was going to win because you died, he knew he was the lyncher (= not a VT) => no way to lynch the mafia
=> mafia will shoot one more guy next night. That could be him, that could be anyone else, either way it's a mafia win from his point of view and he tried to win with town, which just wasn't going to happen anymore 
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On January 14 2013 03:27 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:25 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel Hmm ok. Thing is he was convinced that you are the shrink and I don't know what you 2 said to each other. That's how you knew you were going to get NKed? well he saw mafia was going to win because you died, he knew he was the lyncher (= not a VT) => no way to lynch the mafia => mafia will shoot one more guy next night. That could be him, that could be anyone else, either way it's a mafia win from his point of view
so that's why you were so damn pissed at him :D
I get it now
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On January 14 2013 03:25 JieXian wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel Hmm ok. Thing is he was convinced that you are the shrink and I don't know what you 2 said to each other. That's how you knew you were going to get NKed?
Well, me or dandel, then the other. This was the only opportunity to lynch
Toad, I guess, but I feel the current setup is (if not scum favored) very hard for town, especially since day 1 is forced no-lynch (you can't seriously say otherwise, can you? There's a reason we no-lynched for 4 cycles)
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
On January 14 2013 03:29 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:25 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel Hmm ok. Thing is he was convinced that you are the shrink and I don't know what you 2 said to each other. That's how you knew you were going to get NKed? Well, me or dandel, then the other. This was the only opportunity to lynch Toad, I guess, but I feel the current setup is (if not scum favored) very hard for town, especially since day 1 is forced no-lynch (you can't seriously say otherwise, can you? There's a reason we no-lynched for 4 cycles)
every man for himself.
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Did the game formally end?
Maybe toad/iamp have a hidden ability where their votes dontbmatter and thw game is still going lol
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On January 14 2013 03:28 JieXian wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:27 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 03:25 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel Hmm ok. Thing is he was convinced that you are the shrink and I don't know what you 2 said to each other. That's how you knew you were going to get NKed? well he saw mafia was going to win because you died, he knew he was the lyncher (= not a VT) => no way to lynch the mafia => mafia will shoot one more guy next night. That could be him, that could be anyone else, either way it's a mafia win from his point of view so that's why you were so damn pissed at him :D I get it now
change it to "either way it's a mafia win from his point of vie2 unless he wins right now himself".
I mean, I get what clarity did and he only had 2 options left to win. Sadly for me, he chose this one....
Had he just pm'ed me earlier about him being the lyncher he would have had a 50% chance to win because I win with either jester or lyncher and had to make one of those 2 lose. But that's still a 50% chance to win for him, hoping I'd pick him or hoping I wasn't in contact with the jester instead of his 1% chance to lynch gonzaw
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On January 14 2013 03:29 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:25 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel Hmm ok. Thing is he was convinced that you are the shrink and I don't know what you 2 said to each other. That's how you knew you were going to get NKed? Well, me or dandel, then the other. This was the only opportunity to lynch Toad, I guess, but I feel the current setup is (if not scum favored) very hard for town, especially since day 1 is forced no-lynch (you can't seriously say otherwise, can you? There's a reason we no-lynched for 4 cycles)
Town could have easily won with night actions alone
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On January 14 2013 03:30 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:29 Clarity_nl wrote:On January 14 2013 03:25 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel Hmm ok. Thing is he was convinced that you are the shrink and I don't know what you 2 said to each other. That's how you knew you were going to get NKed? Well, me or dandel, then the other. This was the only opportunity to lynch Toad, I guess, but I feel the current setup is (if not scum favored) very hard for town, especially since day 1 is forced no-lynch (you can't seriously say otherwise, can you? There's a reason we no-lynched for 4 cycles) every man for himself.
this.
I went into this game thinking I've got a 1 in 3 chance to actually win this... or something like this. I think it's about the same for town. Which is the reason I'm so very pissed about this, because I was so happy that I would win this after all the bad luck I run into...
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On January 14 2013 03:31 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:28 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 03:27 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 03:25 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel Hmm ok. Thing is he was convinced that you are the shrink and I don't know what you 2 said to each other. That's how you knew you were going to get NKed? well he saw mafia was going to win because you died, he knew he was the lyncher (= not a VT) => no way to lynch the mafia => mafia will shoot one more guy next night. That could be him, that could be anyone else, either way it's a mafia win from his point of view so that's why you were so damn pissed at him :D I get it now change it to "either way it's a mafia win from his point of vie2 unless he wins right now himself". I mean, I get what clarity did and he only had 2 options left to win. Sadly for me, he chose this one.... Had he just pm'ed me earlier about him being the lyncher he would have had a 50% chance to win because I win with either jester or lyncher and had to make one of those 2 lose. But that's still a 50% chance to win for him, hoping I'd pick him or hoping I wasn't in contact with the jester instead of his 1% chance to lynch gonzaw
Nah, I contact you and you know who the jester is and win with him, kill me. I don't consider that a coinflip and I didn't think it was that farfetched to try and get gonzaw lynched, especially if he turned out to be jester instead of pgo (I didn't know which of iamp/gonzaw was which)
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On January 14 2013 03:33 JieXian wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:29 Clarity_nl wrote:On January 14 2013 03:25 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel Hmm ok. Thing is he was convinced that you are the shrink and I don't know what you 2 said to each other. That's how you knew you were going to get NKed? Well, me or dandel, then the other. This was the only opportunity to lynch Toad, I guess, but I feel the current setup is (if not scum favored) very hard for town, especially since day 1 is forced no-lynch (you can't seriously say otherwise, can you? There's a reason we no-lynched for 4 cycles) Town could have easily won with night actions alone
Yeah but that feels more like a random chance kinda deal. If both sides play decently (like they did this game) then night actions won't win the game for town.
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This game was kind of boring to.me.i had no night action and either nobody pmed.me/responded to my pms or they bullshited the hell out of me
i knew jiexian ciuld be fucking wiy me, but he.was the only one pming me so i still told him stuff
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On January 14 2013 03:34 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 03:31 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 03:28 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 03:27 Toadesstern wrote:On January 14 2013 03:25 JieXian wrote:On January 14 2013 03:21 Clarity_nl wrote:
Yes, toad, but you cannot do that as town. Voting anything but a no lynch during day 1 in this setup is anti town, there is no way around it. That's why I suggested the fourth townie in the setup. So there can be a lynch day 1.
Jiexian, playing the way I did was the only conceivable way that I could have won, if you can explain a different way I could have handled it, I'm all ears.
edit: no, they're not, gonzaw was a lynch candidate too, he was just a weak one and I couldn't convince dandel Hmm ok. Thing is he was convinced that you are the shrink and I don't know what you 2 said to each other. That's how you knew you were going to get NKed? well he saw mafia was going to win because you died, he knew he was the lyncher (= not a VT) => no way to lynch the mafia => mafia will shoot one more guy next night. That could be him, that could be anyone else, either way it's a mafia win from his point of view so that's why you were so damn pissed at him :D I get it now change it to "either way it's a mafia win from his point of vie2 unless he wins right now himself". I mean, I get what clarity did and he only had 2 options left to win. Sadly for me, he chose this one.... Had he just pm'ed me earlier about him being the lyncher he would have had a 50% chance to win because I win with either jester or lyncher and had to make one of those 2 lose. But that's still a 50% chance to win for him, hoping I'd pick him or hoping I wasn't in contact with the jester instead of his 1% chance to lynch gonzaw Nah, I contact you and you know who the jester is and win with him, kill me. I don't consider that a coinflip and I didn't think it was that farfetched to try and get gonzaw lynched, especially if he turned out to be jester instead of pgo (I didn't know which of iamp/gonzaw was which)
I don't think third party can be the lynchers target. Pretty sure it has to be one of the 3 blues. Lynchers target being mafia or jester would be incredibly OP.
And you didn't know that about the "coinflip" not being a coinflip. I told you an hour ago I would not have trusted you but you asked me so I'm pretty sure you would have given it a shot had you realized I'm the mafia
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EPT
