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Before I answer this, can I ask you a question?
How did you go about making his case? Did you read his filter and analyze the posts you put in question when you got to that post? Or did you read all of his filter first, and then go back and pick out posts to criticize?
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If someone receives a jailed notification, can they differentiate that from a roleblock notification?
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EBWOP: If someone receives a jailed notification, can they differentiate that from a roleblock notification?
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@TeMiL
I know we have been sort of rude to you, and your fun factor is being compromised as a result. I don’t expect you to comply with this request, but I’m going to ask anyway on the off-chance you are profoundly reasonable.
Your vote, regardless of your alignment, is scaring the shit out of town, because it is unjustified and seems almost entirely random. If you do not vote, you will be mod-killed, but if you do vote, you could potentially screw town over. I implore you to vote for a no-lynch, allowing the rest of town to do their thing, and stopping you from being banned from this site.
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On January 06 2013 06:04 Spaghetticus wrote:
If someone receives a jailed notification, can they differentiate that from a roleblock notification?
No
On January 06 2013 06:25 Spaghetticus wrote:
@TeMiL
I know we have been sort of rude to you, and your fun factor is being compromised as a result. I don’t expect you to comply with this request, but I’m going to ask anyway on the off-chance you are profoundly reasonable.
Your vote, regardless of your alignment, is scaring the shit out of town, because it is unjustified and seems almost entirely random. If you do not vote, you will be mod-killed, but if you do vote, you could potentially screw town over. I implore you to vote for a no-lynch, allowing the rest of town to do their thing, and stopping you from being banned from this site.
You do not decide bans, so stop threatening them.
Consider this a warning to all of you.
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It wasn't a threat, I assumed that was what happened, but noted.
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Could we please get a countdown on the end of night one? A lot of stuff needs to happen and the board seems lethargic
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deadline in a bit less than 2 hours, 00:00 GMT (+00:00)
Don't forget to send in any night actions you may perform to all hosts.
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@Mocsta & Corazon
You will want to present your analysis before night actions are executed, along with your wills. This is the deadline for Zare to post his analysis as well, because we do not want him benefiting from the analysis of current town leadership.
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On January 06 2013 07:42 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Mocsta & Corazon
You will want to present your analysis before night actions are executed, along with your wills. This is the deadline for Zare to post his analysis as well, because we do not want him benefiting from the analysis of current town leadership.
I'm working on it right now. I want to post it as close to the deadline as possible so as to not affect the scum's decision on the NK.
I would say (unless I have to go somewhere), that I will post my analysis/will 5 minutes before the deadline.
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Cool, I just finished my analysis, and need to iron out the bumps in my will. I'm glad to see signs of human life.
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On January 06 2013 07:50 Spaghetticus wrote:
Cool, I just finished my analysis, and need to iron out the bumps in my will. I'm glad to see signs of human life.
I've been reading the thread still, and I just want to point this out:
I believe Mocsta (please correct me if I'm wrong) has said that I've been doing a lot of watching, and I won't deny that. However, I don't think it should be looked into that much. In real life, I'm a quiet person. I think the same applies to the game. I've never been one to talk (unless it's around my friends) unless I have something to say. However, when I feel like I have something to say differs from when someone feels like I should have something to say.
I would just like it to be known: I don't say anything unless I have something to say. Don't mistake it for lurking.
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I wasn't referring to you specifically. The thread is dead, and has been for a long time. It's as if night time isn't valuable (it is).
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I've been MIA since the deadline last night as I've spent all day today selling and buying a car. I'd had a read on OE for most of Day 1 but didn't have the time/energy to put it into a post; let's just say I was suspecting him, and when Mocsta made the case it aligned with what I'd seen and decided to switch so that Mocsta's suspicion may end up meaning something. This also led to a last minute shuffling of votes, which reveals a lot of information, imo.
I know this sucks but I honestly will be totally MIA tomorrow -- I have a lot of Sunday commitments and will thus miss the entire first half of Day 2. I promise to catch up on everything Monday and be fully participatory for the remainder of Day 2.
So I'm certainly responsible for a lacking discussion environment right now, and I"m sorry for that, but unavoidable in my case.
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In accordance with Spag’s wishes, I am making what could possibly be my last will. While I think that a half-competent scum would kill off Mocsta N1 instead of me, I’m glad that I have been invited to share all of my feelings with the town.
I must admit, most of D1, I’ve been suspicious of Mocsta. He has been the driving force behind the town, and his analysis, intelligence, and leadership has helped the discussion immensely. However, I do feel like you have been too aggressive with me and others at points, and until recently I really felt like you were bullying me (and others) instead of disagreeing with me.
I thought that the accusation of OE, especially having it 1 hour before the lynch deadline, was a scummy move. I feel like it created chaos in the town environment that only suits scum, and hinders the town. I was going to come out and say that if Mocsta was not killed N1, it would elevate him to my #1 scumread.
However, after taking some time to think about it, I realized that Mocsta’s attack on OE could not possibly be a scum trying to take down the most vocal townie, because he could just Night-Kill OE and be done with him without getting his hands dirty. The main reason I did not jump on the wagon (which really went nowhere, but had the potential to go somewhere) was because I had suspicions of Moc, and the confirmation bias started to set in a little bit (plus I really did agree with OE’s argument). My opinion of Moc has changed with this new way of thinking, and so my opinion of OE has changed accordingly.
So, my two top scumreads are OE and Zare.
OE- The mislynch of StriX cannot be overlooked. The facts are the facts: you mislynched a townie, and you started the wagon to lynch StriX. The same thing that applies to my thinking of Mocsta can be applied to you as well: You could take the easy road and get a townie lynched D1, especially one who’s actions had been really scummy and terrible, and then kill off a townie N2, which would leave the town at 5-2 against the scum (which puts the scum in a great position). Scum OE could have seen that the train on Zare was not going anywhere, so he decided that jumping on StriX would be a better idea, because of the inconsistencies of StriX’s play.
I know Mocsta is an intelligent person. Just by reading his posts and his approach to the game, he knows what is going on. This had me worried before because if he was scum, he’s a dangerous scum. His ability to make arguments and make them convincing had me worried that if he was scum, he could just control the town and get them to make three mislynches, and not have them suspect him at all. This is how much I respect Mocsta’s ability. However, now that I think Mocsta is town by re-evaluating his play, I think he was on to something with his case on OE. Had his case been farther away from the deadline, had it not had confirmation bias, and had I not had a case of confirmation bias myself, I would have voted for OE.
Zare- There’s not much to discuss on this one. Zare randomly switched onto OE, and still has not given us any specifics as to why he voted for OE. It’s lazy, and it’s scummy. If he agreed with Mocsta, why would he just not come out and say that he agrees with Mocsta? The unjustified vote has me really suspicious.
However, I’d like to conclude with this obvious statement: OE and Zare have different roles. They’ve both voted for each other, and scum would not bus D1. That would be just silly.
If anyone has any questions, I would love to hear them.
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Day 2![[image loading]](http://huenemanniac.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/absolutely_nothing_road_sign_lg.jpg) The Nihilists are gaining ground!
cDgCorazon was pondering the nature of existence on a quiet evening.
Perhaps, he contemplated, what makes an object and object is subject to everyone's eyes.
After a short giggle about his grammatical pun, he prepared for bed.
But sleep was to elude him.
"How can I know the substance of anything?", he asked the empty room. Predictably enough, he was not treated to an answer by said room.
How can I be sure of the nature of an object when the only things I have to perceive are my own senses?
How can I trust the existance of objects outside of my senses' range?
What if all the signs, all this "proof" of such matters is fabricated to look the part to those objects that we can perceive?
If that is the case, then clearly, my senses cannot be trusted, for they are fooled too easily.
"I've been wondering about the nature of existance...
But now what I have to question...
Is existance itself."
cDgCorazon, the Vanilla Townie, thought too much Nihilism, fell down, and broke his brain.
It is now Day 2. You have 48 hours to vote. Deadline is at 00:00 GMT (+00:00).
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GG guys, GL in the scumhunt ^^
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Shit I thought we had more time.
+ Show Spoiler +MY WILL On Mocsta: While I have the most posts, my contribution is likely less than Mocsta’s, so my dying is conspicuous when there is a stronger town to kill. It is my belief that if Mocsta is not killed, it is because scum have deliberately left him alone because either he is scum, or because they want people to assume him not being killed makes him scum. There is also the chance they will try to play around the possibility of a jailkeeper and lynch myself or Corazon assuming that the JK will keep Mocsta safe. They also have the same 50% chance of a JK existing to work with, because of the solid role distribution design (check it in the OP). This presumes they don’t have an amazing read on a blue role, which would alter their chances. Unfortunately, this leaves you with WIFOM. What to do from here? The same thing I’ve been doing, which is admitting to yourself that he could be scum, but also leaving him until last. Go for the other scum, and hope that their flip will lead you to Mocsta’s door (if he is scum). Now that I’ve made this available information, I expect scum to play around it from now on if they have not already been doing so, so posts previous to this one will be more valuable. Remember, if scum are playing on Mocsta’s obvious utility to town, they are taking a massive risk in keeping him alive to throw doubt on him. If he continues to remain alive and is green, then town are much stronger. If he is scum then we still can’t catch him without further information, so bide your time while his extreme output provides a paper trail. On TeMil: TeMiL is another person that presents massive difficulty. I am very reluctant to waste a day’s lynch on a null read just because his continued existence threatens town. Lynch’s are valuable tools and should be used to seek scum if possible. With two mislynches and two NK’s, that leaves a 3/2 town scum ratio for day three, which is LYLO. We need a scum dead on day two. In making the decision of whether to lynch TeMiL (as it is a tricky one), please refer to these posts:- Mocsta's day one case: + Show Spoiler + On January 04 2013 22:41 TeMiL wrote:
- Hide Spoiler -
answering mocsta questions:
- Hide Spoiler -
(1) So far your post count reads as useless fluff. Why should I not vote for you?
am a really newbie in this game, i you check others mafia games you wouldnt find me anywhere. if i get voted maybe i can loose any interest of this game but in the other case i will learn more and be more active.
(2) "growing in my role" What does this mean? (I understand English is not your first language)
i mean i can learn what to do and be a better player each day. right now am like a little boy in his first class, i want to learn a lot but is difficult to be attached every hour. ill try to change that.
answering others post
- Hide Spoiler -
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On January 04 2013 14:24 StriX wrote:
2. Feel like we're going a bit easy on TeMiL and I'd like to vote to lynch him right now. I delayed my vote due to suspecting lurking was due to timezone issues, however, I feel like we've given him long enough to contribute. He is also the only one to not respond to Mocsta's first set of questions.
As an idea Mocsta could you may
##Vote TeMil
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i answer both rounds of questions and ive just finished the third. my 2 post where those questions and i couldnt write more because i went back home, forgot my celphone with internet connection and couldnt write any post until now. well ill hope u can change your mind.
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On January 04 2013 14:44 OmniEulogy wrote:
@StriX if you think that qualifies you as a contributor in any discussion to this point I apologize. How about you update us with your thoughts. Right now in terms of contribution imo from the bottom up its Temil - Strix/Jampi - everybody else.
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ill change your thoughts about me... can i?
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On January 04 2013 15:26 cDgCorazon wrote:
In all honesty, I think voting TeMiL right now is a pretty useless move. I think a FoS (Finger of Suspicion) towards TeMiL can be more helpful than just voting TeMiL and being done with the analysis. Voting someone that is lurking this early in the game is really just being lazy, and does not help out town at all.
.
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thanks :D actually i didnt lurker at all if u consider lurker a gamer that only entered 3 times.
right now am reading everything and with my phone back ill be writing every minute
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On January 04 2013 21:12 StriX wrote:
TeMiL is currently the undisputedly biggest lurker.
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until today . like i said i will practicing my english a lot! give an opportunity thats all
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On January 04 2013 21:59 StriX wrote:
##unvote TeMiL
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this was unespected, looks like cDgCorazon makes you change your vote?
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On January 04 2013 22:05 Spaghetticus wrote:
#Vote: TeMiL
This vote is conditional but deadly serious. Contribute.
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ill contribute :D
this is all right now.
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OMG... Before I played Newbie 33.. I read through Newbie 32... there was this guy.. AxelGreaser... you have just given me back nightmares of him.. Luckily Yamato isnt playing, he would probably delete his team liquid account.
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In all seriousness, you have made my life easier today.
I was about to start reading through filters, consolidating my thought process, to make a case as promised to cDgCorazon and Sylencia.
But... your post, has made me throw that out the window
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##Vote: TeMiL
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(1) You have had the lowest post contribution in 30hrs of play. No excuses
(2) All your posts are fluff, and then your riposte to accusations of fluff, is simply fluffx2 with a
Does this make you mafia?
• NO, it does guarantee you are mafia.
Does this make you absolutely useless and unreliable town?
• YES, this is guaranteed.
Town,
I am voting TeMiL, because, his actions have proven to be useless and unreliable.
(Yes, I use proven to a person with a 1 page filter, that is how strongly I feel)
I ask you this... if we were down to 3 candidates, YOU (Town), X (Scum) and TeMiL... can you trust TeMiL to vote for X?
I already know from his last post, the answer is no, I cant rely on his innocence as town, I can't rely on his skill to scum hunt, and I certainly can not rely on his ability to establish a vote.
but... lets take a look at the flip side and counter my argument.
(1) Do we care if we can rely on him, we are not down to 3 candidates?
(2) Do you not have a better scum read you can target (instead of lurker bait), as you advocate others to do?
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Well..
(1) Agreed, but there has been no stand out lynch candidate thus far. Thus, for Day1 it is highly likely TeMiL might be the hammer vote to send someone home... someone who could be Town.. Are you confident enough on YOUR scum read to risk this happening?
(2) Agreed, I had a better scum read prior to TeMiL posting, I was just about to read the filter. BUT, the risks to me from (1) are too extreme. We have limited players, 7 townies, every player counts. If TeMiL hammered a townie home, and then a townie is dropped off from Night Kill, Day 2 starts with 2 mafia and 5 townies; which is going to signficantly reduce town odds.
I am looking at the big picture here, and lynching a ?possible town? TeMiL to me is less risk long term than lynching my scum read, who may also be a town flip.
Are you confident enough on YOUR scum read to risk this happening?
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P.S.
Just refreshed to see if anything new before posted, and saw this beauty.
Case in Point.
or as I have always wanted to say since doing Trigonometry in high school.
Q.E.D
- Hide Spoiler -
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On January 04 2013 23:14 TeMiL wrote:
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Hide nested quote -
On January 04 2013 22:49 zarepath wrote:
TeMiL, what do you think about my earlier analysis of Sylencia?
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u have something agains australians or isjust causality to target him?
looks like you now how to analyse a gamer.
its a good brief of course and thanks to made me read it again
Spag's plea to ignore TeMiL: + Show Spoiler + I do not like this as a platform for analysis on TeMiL. He spouts nonsense and is in my eyes an empty slot. Nothing he has said has been influential, and thus if he is scum he is entirely ineffective at promoting his agenda. This does make me feel a little cross saying this, as I'd have liked him mod-killed, but if TeMiL is scum you won't catch him by analysing his posts, and by ignoring him you would be creating a town environment of 6/1, which is town favoured. If he is town then you are wasting your time on him, and the current numbers would be 5/2 regardless. My understanding gives no explanation of how I intend on actually catching him if he is scum, I guess I'm hoping that over time, we will have more information to work with.
If anyone wants to attack TeMiL, then I would request that they first address my reasoning above. My conclusion is that regardless of his alignment, there is currently no point in pursuing a case against TeMiL. Syl's reprimand: + Show Spoiler + If Temil is scum, there is another teammate to worry about. All that needs to happen is that Temil listens to them, and bandwagon to the appropriate vote. It is not 6/1 as you say it is, it would still be 6/2. You have to remember that while he has no influence in our discussions, he still holds a vote. If he is scum, that is a potentially powerful vote.
If Temil is town, no one is guiding him. He will not be voting in a very rational manner, he will not be reading our posts and cases, instead making his own (as you can see from his posts, he has made a few random accusations at you and Jampi) and voting off that. This is NOT the situation we want to be in, because if we reach a stalemate during the next vote, we would have to see how Temil votes.
Assuming we have 2 scum and a townie on one person, and townies voting on town, we would be leaving it up to a 50/50 chance he understands the situation, and votes the right one. Not the best odds.
Taking it further if he is town: He probably won't be killed because he is a liability to town. You're now in a 3-2 situation. Do you want to have Temil be the decider of the game? Spag's response to Syl's reprimand: + Show Spoiler + This is sound analysis, you are really speaking my language with this post.
His vote is actually more powerful since he doesn't have to justify it in any way.
In regard to influence it is 6/1, but in terms of voting it is more like 6/2.5 (2.5 is mean to represent TemiL's more powerful vote, it's more powerful than a single vote but not as powerful as two).
TeMiL holding the balance of power as town does not worry me. Scum has exactly the same handicap in their voting, they have no clue where his vote will land. Approximately the same options for circumvention are available to both scum and town. Scum have more solid powers of premeditation, and can therefore invest more into outcome certainty, but this commitment to a lynch comes at a price of providing information. For town, I know I will be micromanaging the lynch to ensure one of my reads goes down, and I expect other town will want to do the same.
You are correct in assessing TeMiL as a detriment to town, the question now becomes whether this negative is outweighed by anyone else's play.
Oh crap. There are no vigilantes this game. A vigikill would be perfect for this occasion. I have actually been hoping that there was a vigilante present and listening, but I guess this goes to show I should pay more attention to the OP. There are also no medics... This makes Mocsta's fate almost certain...
How frustrating.
Regardless, your analysis is impressive Syl, this improves your standing substantially in my eyes. I am wary of you deliberately catering to the known disposition of one of your threats, but that is good play for both town and scum.
+ Show Spoiler +Mislynch analysis: StriX StriX (4): jampidampi, OmniEulogy, Spaghetticus, cDgCorazon jampidampi (2): Sylencia, TeMiL OmniEulogy (3): Mocsta, zarepath, StriX I’ve already presented justification for my behaviour here: + Show Spoiler +My justification for switching to StiX.
This seems really obvious to me, but that's the benefit of introspection I guess.
I switched to StriX as soon as Mocsta switched to Omni. StriX was a lurker that had not proving as analytic and direct as Jamp when there had been meta expectations of this type of performance. I had already ruled out voting for Jamp, and had already started making my concerns known about voting for TeMiL. While my vote had been on TeMiL previously, it was only put on him that early in order to pressure (I realise this was a mistake). If I had have held on to my vote until later, and then voted StriX, this would have been less townish as I would not be using my votethreat as a resource, but also would not have called any attention to me whatsoever.
When Mocsta switched, TeMiL was no longer on the chopping block at all, by keeping my vote on him I was basically giving a null read of my intentions: a no-lynch. There were three options:
- vote StriX
- vote Omni
- vote Jamp
As already mentioned I thought StriX a superior lynch to Jamp. Other than lurking, StriX was actually coming off as mild to moderate scum. At least Jamp is precise with his few words. This made my options either StriX or Omni. I have immense difficulty reading Omni's play as anything but scummy, but this is his meta and there is little I can do about it. He has also actually posted, and with my hard-line LAL adherence I both wanted and was forced to vote for StriX. And also what I consider an important post on possible scum distribution here: + Show Spoiler +I'm not sure if this is an exact repeat of the 1:1 hypothesis from XXXIII, as I was dead and only skimmed over it.
Basically, unless we have very bold scum, I believe there was at most one scum voting for StiX. This means that if Jamp, Omni, or Corazon flip scum, you can increase your town reads on the other two. I do not include myself in this equation so as to remove the possibility of scum motive from my post. I am not implying you should discount me if any of these three flip scum, and if I flip scum, you should completely ignore this post.
This also does not imply that there was definitely one scum on the StiX wagon. There could be two distributed among Jami and Omni.
It does imply that there was at least one voting for either Jami or Omni, though this is not a very strong claim. The three people up for lynching (TeMiL excluded) were: Omni, Jamp, and StriX). I think Jamp was an inferior lynch to StriX in every way (with the information available at the time). That Syl sat his vote on Jamp does not give us any information on him as he knew his vote would be meaningless. Sitting by yourself on someone that is not in contention is equivalent to a no-lynch, and this gives me a scummy read on him. He had the option to express a large degree of power over who got lynched between Omni and StriX, but declined this opportunity and went no-lynch. Weak… Omni was a more active poster, but from my perspective his meta is damn scummy even when he plays town. StriX’s vote on Omni was for survival, so did not really represent his read. That leaves Mocsta and Zare as the two people actually putting their reads on Omni. I completely excuse Mocsta, both because he’s bulletproof from lynches for now, and because his action actually represented his read. There was no wagon for Omni at the time, and by backing out of TeMiL he was not dissociating from an active wagon. There is no scum motive there that I can see. Zare’s motive is a little more… suspect. He jumps off TeMiL and straight onto Mocsta’s proposed bandwagon without justification: a straight mimic play. This play will almost guarantee Zare being town if Omni flips red. Until we have this information however, it reads as scummy, as he doesn’t offer any justification for his switch, and it doesn’t seem as if he cares who gets lynched. Combine this with him not posting an analysis and Zare is giving me some nasty signals. Analysis on the three people that voted on StriX with me is a little more difficult, as I am guilty of the same crime. Jampidampi was first to vote strix, I believe for both survival and because StriX’ play was genuinely scummy/lurky. Regardless, he did not move his vote, didn’t seem to manipulate the bandwagon, and did not OMGUS Corazons pressure. OmniEulogy posted a case on Strix and voted for him for completely legitimate reasons. Admittedly his wording preceding his vote was a bit muddled, which Jamp points out. I do not get anything from Omni’s vote. Corazon was the nail in the coffin for StriX. So long as nobody left the Strix wagon, there is pretty much no way that five votes will land anywhere else. If Corazon is scum, this would be a very bold move as he is taking responsibility for a mislynch. Regardless, Corazon is so active he is not to be pursued yet.
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Expected that too.. *sigh*
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EPT
