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On February 02 2013 05:18 Aperture Science wrote: I am not willing to sacrifice braid of fire. It is too key to our deck and we don't have a backup one available yet. Clockwork: me and iGrok are going to pick apart the thread when he gets home from work later tonight and we can talk on skype. That being said I have had time to catch up on the events of the thread, and though I dont have much actual things to go on I have found things that I see are weird. The Primary of this was some of stutters interactions with clockwork especially this post: Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 09:14 Stutters695 wrote:On January 30 2013 08:37 Clockwork Hydra wrote:On January 30 2013 08:22 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
Also considering Prome told me (and everybody) Stutters is this "useless" every time he's town, I am thus willing to "forgive" him and focus on Crossfire more, and also considering Xfire's "blunders" and contradictions and wishy-washy play so far
I.e if I had 2 10/10 beasts I'd attack Cross right now and let Stutters be for another day. Please don't say this kind of stuff. Stutters: you are not getting a freebie from me. I don't give a shit about your meta. Start scumhunting or get zombied. Agreed with this actually. Why would you give me a free pass for a day? From your position I wouldn't consider me town yet. Why would you give me a free pass instead of questioning me to force more out of me. This post rubs me the wrong way though I cannot say why. The second is that he is obviously noncommittal on everything in the game. Even his "next biggest scumread" (me) is him saying the case on my is good but has problems. Now having null reads is not a scumtell, but he seems to be very noncommittal all game, something that I find is a scumtell. On the magic side of things he also really hasnt had incredibly strong opinions on his development in this game. I am speaking of this post: Show nested quote +On February 02 2013 01:09 Stutters695 wrote:
Basically I can drop a 2/2 today for some kp at the risk of developing even slower than I already am, or can be creatureless until t4 but help everyone develop. I really piloted this poorly t1 :/ While it might seem the "townie" thing to do, this information doesn't do us any good. We don't know how much we will hurt his development, what the risks are, what the reward is, or how vulnurable he will be. Only he knows this information for sure. The best thing for him to do in this situation would be to commit to something and say "this is the best option". Once again, this is an example of non committal behavior. Please read his filter and study him. beyond the standard policy discussion for his first few posts stutters has yet to actually take a real stance on anything, especially now with crossfire taking a lot of the attention of the day.
Although it looks like no one took this seriously, I'd just like to point out how incredibly selective with my filter he is. I've took a stand on cross since halfway through t1. I pointed out cross was my #1 read before bins case because he wasn't taking any stands, and I'm fairly certain I was the first person to actually drop the point about how blatantly different cross's meta was when we played in WLIIA.
His MtG not taking a stance is out of context too considering I was directly asked what I could play to help our collective kp.
Hard to see them being anything but the second scum with head 1 not really contributing and head 2 only contributing in one weak ass case that is based on misrepresenting my filter.
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I think it might be a good idea to have Aperture just out his whole hand and deck to us lol.
I don't really want to see him play an "anti-town" card later out of nowhere that can fuck us up, without us knowing first or him lying about it and thus confirming himself as scum.
I know I kind of tried to "force" this the previous game with Grey...and he just straight up refused...and then he was misslynched....and then town lost the game; but it might be a good idea to enforce it today
Answer the question about what his deck is about would be a good way too.
[hr
Anyways Aperture, the only other hydra I could see as scum (which I don't actually do) is Rock.
So.....either convince us why the fuck there'd be 2 "non-hydra non-vets" scum in this game (which we already stated had less than 9% chance of happening, hell I'd even say less than 5% considering the hydra/vet balance thing) [also actually making a good case against Stutters/Nova and being very convincing about it], or start making a convincing case against Rock, which should be very convincing.
Answering questions and giving a crap about whether town can kill a confirmed scum or not would be a good start as well.
/G
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On February 02 2013 09:11 gonzaw wrote:
I think it might be a good idea to have Aperture just out his whole hand and deck to us lol.
I don't really want to see him play an "anti-town" card later out of nowhere that can fuck us up, without us knowing first or him lying about it and thus confirming himself as scum.
I know I kind of tried to "force" this the previous game with Grey...and he just straight up refused...and then he was misslynched....and then town lost the game; but it might be a good idea to enforce it today
Answer the question about what his deck is about would be a good way too.
[hr
Anyways Aperture, the only other hydra I could see as scum (which I don't actually do) is Rock.
So.....either convince us why the fuck there'd be 2 "non-hydra non-vets" scum in this game (which we already stated had less than 9% chance of happening, hell I'd even say less than 5% considering the hydra/vet balance thing) [also actually making a good case against Stutters/Nova and being very convincing about it], or start making a convincing case against Rock, which should be very convincing.
Answering questions and giving a crap about whether town can kill a confirmed scum or not would be a good start as well.
/G
Derp first hydra fail ;_;
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Gonzaw loses the hydra game. And I disagree with him on Rock. I know Hope and he feels town.
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On February 02 2013 09:11 gonzaw wrote:
I think it might be a good idea to have Aperture just out his whole hand and deck to us lol.
I don't really want to see him play an "anti-town" card later out of nowhere that can fuck us up, without us knowing first or him lying about it and thus confirming himself as scum.
I know I kind of tried to "force" this the previous game with Grey...and he just straight up refused...and then he was misslynched....and then town lost the game; but it might be a good idea to enforce it today
Answer the question about what his deck is about would be a good way too.
[hr
Anyways Aperture, the only other hydra I could see as scum (which I don't actually do) is Rock.
So.....either convince us why the fuck there'd be 2 "non-hydra non-vets" scum in this game (which we already stated had less than 9% chance of happening, hell I'd even say less than 5% considering the hydra/vet balance thing) [also actually making a good case against Stutters/Nova and being very convincing about it], or start making a convincing case against Rock, which should be very convincing.
Answering questions and giving a crap about whether town can kill a confirmed scum or not would be a good start as well.
/G
While I don't necessarily disagree with you on Aperture, you are taking the 8.33% thing for a hydra being scum ENTIRELY out of context.
Pick ANY 3 players AT RANDOM. The chance that the 2 scummers are in there, is 8.33%. Ergo, you cannot use statistics as an argument for why a Hydra is scum, just as you'd be laughed at for claiming it is statistically unlikely that the 2 scum are in the top 3 of the signup list.
Meta-analysis on game balance is an entirely different kettle of fish, however.
/Acro
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Yes it's true, it's true regardless of any 6 players out of 9 you choose.
However, it is indeed true. And it has all that balance stuff supporting it
I just want Aperture to be the one convincing me it's not true...since apparently he's the only one in the game advocating it (not only that, 1 of his hydra heads even supports it)
/G
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I'm less focused on the "A hydra has to be scum" now because Artanis made it clear to GreY when they hosted together that he RNGs EVERYTHING and takes it very seriously.
I've got about an hour to do an analysis now, so I'm going to do it on Stutters. Then if I have time later before release, I'll check out someone else, have to talk to GreY about this. If I don't have time before release, I'll do the rest of you tomorrow - finally a day I have that is free.
As far as our deck goes, I feel like I've revealed everything I need to. I told you the game is on a looong clock. Storm in this game doesn't count opponent's spells because Artanis is a meanie. This means I need to build up to a loooot of mana, and then I can combo, IF I have the right cards. If I'd thought about Voyage I would have included more basic lands 
If you'd like to follow along with my analysis, feel free to watch @ THIS LINK RIGHT HERE.
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Got halfway through, have to leave for dinner, will be back in a couple hours to finish.
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Ehmm......there's no way I'm reading that stuff lol.
A PBPA with 0s and 1s next to it?
Please try to make it more "readable", preferable in TL format (quotes and shit).
Also.....like...could you at least try to defend yourself against my case?
At least a little bit? Like...is that possible?
/G
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I will give the point about using RNG though.
I think Artanis could have made that clearer at some point, but well
/G
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We read it, and we disagree with each other on a number of things. However, one thing we agree on is that the play-by-play analysis "system" you are working with makes it very hard to analyse YOU based on it. It also seems like it misses most of the important stuff.
For instance, I agree with you that point 31 could really do with some explanation from Stutters, so you get brownie points for finding it. However, you give him +8 scum points for that. The number seems entirely arbitrary. You then find something, I'd consider a town point at point 33, but give him -1 scum points for that.
The points seem entirely arbitrary, so the whole PBPA "system" is not actually any more systematic than when I quote shit and say why it's scummy.
So while the PBPA points out some stuff in Stutters' filter that I think warrants a closer look at Stutters, the formulaic system means that I can not actually get a whiff of your OWN alignment from it, which is one of the main things I use people making cases FOR.
We both agreed that we don't think you'd do this any differently as scum or as town. When I pointed out that for number 36, Greymist could just have labeled it "soft-defending scum" and given him + points, Dandel replied that throwing in a couple of -1s here and there doesn't really matter when you throw +2s and +8s the other way. If you want to cook the books, this is the perfect way of doing it.
/Acro
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Okay I just skimmed it and I think there are some good points...but I can barely read the post he makes (there is no TL format, so I can't see nested quotes and shit) at the right.
Please make a case in TL format, not that spreadsheet stuff
Also...I'd say that forcing us to see you making the analysis may not be the best thing? Seems unnatural with how every mafia game is made, and seems to be more like IRC mafia than forum mafia.
It does raise me the question if you'd do that as scum...? We can check your thought process and exactly how you are making the analysis, even if most of it is mechanical. If Stutters is town you have to find incriminating stuff about him, which can make you slip as scum and thus fuck up while everybody is seeing your scumslip (like pointing out "incriminating" stuff that's obviously not in an attempt to frame him, but we see it before you can correct it).
Don't really know what to think of that.
/G
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On February 02 2013 10:59 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
I will give the point about using RNG though.
I think Artanis could have made that clearer at some point, but well
/G
Why should he make that clear? We're supposed to be catching scum, not metagaming the host. This goes for almost all mafia games here: do it, but do it at your own peril.
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Because everybody does it, and will continue to do it (both hosts and players)
It's why everybody says "There must be a vet in the scumteam" in every single big game, and they just go assuming that.
If some host goes "against the flow" and doesn't follow that I think it'd be nice to clearly point it out so there are no misunderstandings.
/G
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I'd really like to see what Stutters has to say, and see him make a stance and analysis on who he thinks is the 2nd scum
He spent most of T1 Attack Phase implying Rock was that scum, and next Suck.
Now that Aperture "attacked" him, he OMGUSed, even when he said Aperture was likely town, and he was not even convinced by my case (like....my case was super awesome and persuasive, if he was starting to get suspicious of Aperture it should have been there).
On February 01 2013 07:32 Stutters695 wrote:
The case against aperture is good however two things concern me about it. First is your timing although this is a very minor point because with how few attackers there are. You said in your case that you had already given him extra time so why not post it twelve hours into the phase instead of less than an hour before the deadline?
The other is that we still haven't seen grey and earlier you guys made it sound like iGrok trolls early. I'd have to check his meta for that but I don't have the time at the moment.
I'll look into it, but I think cross is so obviously scum he must die first.
So what is it? Is Appy 2nd scum? If so, what do you agree about my case, and what did exactly not convince you, and how did that change if it changed at all?
What about Suck and Rock? They are town then? Care to explain why they are town then? Remember, if you think 1 guy is scum then everybody else is town, and that changes some reads drastically at times
I want to see how they change yours.
/G
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Nova should be free to step on the "Who is the 2nd scum?" discussion as well, I haven't seen him in it in like ever
/G
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I'm on my way to pre-release, dinner took longer than I thought it would, so I'll have to finish either late tonight or tomorrow morning.
The numbers don't mean anything to you, but they mean a lot to me. Just because you don't put your gut measurements to paper doesn't make them any more valid than mine. This is a way I can think clearly. Mafia isn't a game of precision, its a game of gut feeling. If my gut tells me "this is worth 7, that is worth -4, that is worth 1", then its the same gut making those calls, and thats what's important.
I don't like making judgements until I'm done, but the main thing I picked up from stutters is that every single thing he posts just feels weird. Read it. It just gives a weird feeling.
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P.S. I also haven't seen what GreY has done so I can't comment on his stuff.
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On February 02 2013 12:22 Aperture Science wrote:
P.S. I also haven't seen what GreY has done so I can't comment on his stuff.
It's right next to your stuff in the spreadsheet, how did you miss it? 
So Aperture, what about Nova and Rock?
Just skim their filter, don't do a super uber detailed analysis. Tell me your "gut feeling" about them, and why your gut on Stutters is stronger than they are.
/G
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EPT
