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On December 14 2012 04:56 randombum wrote:
Austin, You asked me earlier why I liked you for town. Keep in mind that its only a mild read. It's because I liked how you responded with yamato77 in the other thread.
What's up with that objection? a joke cause sloosh said it?
Past games have had phoenix wright as a role, and he gets a one-shot objection to any statement made in thread. iirc, usually the mods answer the objection in-thread, by posting whether the objected-to statement is true or false.
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Also, randombum, what specifically did you life about how I responded to yamato? When you first said that, there was no reasoning at all, and your response here is pretty much equally devoid of anything we can see.
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Okeedoke.
The above statement was true. None of those three players are anti-town at the moment.
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I wanted to check Palmar because he felt kind of townie, and it's both useful to EVERYONE if we know he's pro-town and trust his stuff, and also now he can be a dick or whatever he wants to do and we'll at least know he's not anti-town while doing so.
slOosh was a strong town read for me, but he was also a bit slow out of the gate, reminding me somewhat of Liquid City. I generally find his posts easy to read and well thought out, and added him specifically to help myself. I want to be able to read and trust what he says, and I figured he would pop up town.
Crossfire99 made some townie comments about past games of his, and those struck me as town. I wanted to throw in one player who was less well known/less active, because if I could hit a townie person in that group it means that we hopefully don't mislynch them ever and it means one less ? towards the end of the game.
Went with 3 players because the more I add, the harder it is to draw any kind of conclusion from the check (1 anti-town, 2, more?). The double-swap also threw a wrench into the works, because it's POSSIBLE that all anti-town elements on this side of things got swapped to the other side. If that happened, nothing I can do about it right now. 3 felt like a number that I could have correct reads on, and takes enough people off the table (and specifically some people that I want to hear from off the table) that I think we can work together and get a solid lynch today.
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That leaves me looking at a lynch among:
randombum
marvellosity
kenpachi
clarity_nl
dienosore
At least for D1, I'm happy to throw clarity off the list. Scum starting with 2 in each world means only 3 scum total if he's scum, and if anything I would think he'd be 3P or some kind of half-one alignment, half-the other. We should not absolutely count him town, but for purposes of the D1 lynch I don't think he's a good option.
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Keirathi,
slOosh was my strongest town read, based on a couple things I mentioned when I joined this world
As I reread everyone, I got a little paranoid that I was wrong - he was relatively inactive, and the marv worship question that he'd brought back up matched up with a question he asked ... I think risen in LC. There was a point in LC where he brought up a day-old post to ask someone about it.
But overall, I chalked that up to me being paranoid and didn't want to second-guess my initial gut read. The fact that he asked a question about an old post in a thread as scum, and did the same thing here, isn't really something I want to go blowing up my town read on him about. I'd rather trust my read that he felt particularly townie, rather than freak out about a particular activity level early in a game and the fact that he had one post here than was similar in some ways to one post he'd made in one scum game.
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SOMEONE ELSE, GO! TALK TIME!
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sandroba, I learn whether the objected-to statement was true or false.
Neither tested nor asked whether I could object to my own statement. Assumed based on what I remember of past uses of the Phoenix Wright role (I'm being super-cagey and not claiming my own role), someone else had to make the statement. There was a big hullabaloo in Bastard 2 because PW wanted a question, someone phrased it slightly different, and PW objected to the slightly different question. Besides, shouldn't be objecting to your own statements anyhow.
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further sandroba,
MY wincon, the TOWN wincon, says I need to eliminate all "anti-town elements." My objection was to a statement phrased with "anti-town elements."
I don't care about "scum or third party," or whether a role is scummy but a player is town or a role is town but a player is scummy, whatever those hypothetical situations might be. I care only about getting rid of "anti-town elements."
Whatever that phrase encompasses, that is the category of people I need to get rid of. None of the three people in that statement are "anti-town elements" (or at least not in the world they're in). Beyond knowing that, I don't care, and that was the exact quality that I'm concerned with. Not alignment, role, anything else, but whether someone IS or IS NOT an anti-town element.
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On December 14 2012 05:22 Clarity_nl wrote:
I have a really hard time seeing who to lynch. I would be most comfortable with a Dieno lynch but am I convinced he's scum? Not really. He's just playing a bit off compared to chrono but it's his second game so it could be anything.
I personally had a townread on randombum before he suddenly wanted to lynch austin, but that was a really weird moment and I can't see a motivation for any alignment for him to act that was so I'm going with it was fault logic.
But this whole world can't possibly all agree that Foolish and Keirathi were the two scum in this world? Those two are my best guess but in no way are they set in stone. I don't think we should just no-lynch, assuming Foolish and Keirathi were the two scum.
I was less certain of Foolishness's scumminess than this thread, because ... the whole thing was just kind of weak. If he were scum, I'd expect some kind of defense because it was sitting right in front of him. Palmar wanted to know why Foolishness was doing what he was doing, and it would have been plenty easy for Foolishness to figure out the "town" answer and give that. He didn't. So I wasn't left being sure about his scumminess.
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further further sandroba, lol
IF you don't think someone's alignment can change, then my questions are fine. If they're not anti-town elements at the moment and they're not going to change, then it's the exact same result as asking if they're anti-town period.
I'm not concerned about scum actually. I'm concerned about a third party who's pro-town on one side and anti-town on the other. I'm concerned about clarity having a good and bad side, etc. It wouldn't make any sense to have a scum player that can swap alignments. It WOULD make for an interesting role if a third party could swap alignments depending on the world.
Anyway, bottom line is the first bit. If you don't think alignments can change, then it doesn't matter whether I ask about alignment NOW or alignment PERIOD. You'd consider those two to be the same.
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sandroba,
for the time being 
I haven't figured out what I think on you yet. I don't have a problem with you criticizing a second round of swap conjecture, it IS a subject we needed to move off of, but I haven't solified a read on you yet. But that's not a relevant issue right now.
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Quick thought before getting to work in this world.
Other world MAY want to send us a scummy player today. You currently have 10, will have 9 after swap. There is a chance we swapped you 1-2 scum through clarity's ability. That would mean 6/3 or 5/4, and you can't even be guaranteed that the entire 6 or 5 is "pro-town." If you swap a townie, the odds seem higher that scum could come to control your world, and also we may be hard up for suspects again over here on cycle 3 (I hope not after 96 more hours).
Overall, it looks like having roles that swap people, and sometimes combine for multiple swaps, means that our goal should be to even things out so that town controls both sides of the game, and can lynch scummy players in both sides of the game.
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@Mementoss
Nope, it's not provable. You'll have to trust me or kill me, which is why I noted that I think PW roles in the past were confirmed in thread. That said, you should be able to look at my reasoning (and my stupid-ass no-stance play yesterday because I was planning on using my power as a DT-ish check) and at least make a read on me without having to see me dead. You can also wait for scum to shoot me, but I am assuming they won't because then they confirm three players on this side of things when I flip.
I'm more or less okay with Sandroba's suggestion of kenpachi, but I think he's the default option and it's lazy to settle on lynching him without at least having any discussion.
Was hoping Palmar or slOosh would be around and we could chat.
marv's absence makes it difficult to get a read on him. Didn't add him to the check because of that, but also having a hard time wanting to lynch him D1 because of that. After Foolishness got swapped (and with crossfire being not anti-town), he's actually got really nothing of substance in this thread. I don't know any of his reads, I don't know who he'd like to vote, and overall it's just a blank slate.
dieno, why do you want to lynch Kenpachi over other options here? You said you got town vibes from sandro, but never said WHY. You haven't said anything about randombum, anything about Kenpachi beforehand, etc.
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On December 14 2012 06:20 Dienosore wrote:
What do I need to do to whip you guys into shape?
Do you want more pictures?
More cute dinosaurs?
More squiggles?
Just let me know and I will deliver!
Se my above question. No pictures/dinosaurs/squiggles. Why are you voting who you are voting?
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Out of the options today, I like randombum's filter the LEAST. He does seem to be reading thread, but ...
His talk about swapping second-scummiest seems near unworkable, and while there's a little bit of logic there something like that would confuse the game like crazy. He seemed to want one side emptied out of scum, having "confirmed townies," but I'm worried about any scenario where we try to get scum out of one side and all together in another.
He hasn't really said anything about reads though. His vote on palmar seems partially joke-y. He's made a town read on me after I swap, and the timing DOES make it seem like he read through my filter. But...there's nothing else. I have no idea what he thinks about anyone, and I can't tell if I like that the only read he seems to have, me being town, is based on me being calm and rational, and on the fact that I agreed with randombum on swap strategy.
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Wait, by reading thread I mean he WAS reading thread. He was around for some of the objection stuff, but there's almost nothing of SUBSTANCE after things start happening.
clarity's swap, my objection, after those points almost all the players that I'm concerned with - randombum, marv, kenpachi, haven't been around or haven't said anything.
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On December 14 2012 06:31 Dienosore wrote:
I've already explained my reasons, austin. If it feels like there isn't much substance there, it's because there isn't. Clarity fucked us over and now we have little time and little evidence to try and piece something together. I'm doing the best I can with what limited resources I have. Stop tunneling me and maybe put forth some of your opinions on who we should lynch.
Wha? Look at your post.
On December 14 2012 06:11 Dienosore wrote:
I agree with Sandroba that we should be focusing on Marv/Kenpachi. Neither have been particularly active, although Marv at least has made a little effort. It also seems Marv has positive support from a few people, while Kenpachi has only that 'joke' scum read from Keirathi.
Unless you guys convince me otherwise, I'll be voting for:
##Vote (Grey): Kenpachi
You agree with Sandroba that we should be focusing those two. You don't say why, unless the why is "neither have been particularly active," and I don't think you and randombum have actually been much more active than marv.
You appear to be splitting them up on whether or not they have support from anyone. I don't know why Kenpachi WOULD have had support from anyone, since he never came up as a lynch candidate yesterday, there was no reason for anyone to discuss him or vote for him.
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Other world, I read the stuff on dienosore. Other world, I don't like the recent post either, it's really odd.
Also other world, clarity's swap is specifically different from a normal swap. When he swaps people, they maintain their roles. (We can talk more about that later but that means that (1) I want clarity doing any swapping on palmar, slOosh, crossfire. and (2) at some point I'd love to get swapped 2x, so that I can go back to where I was and then come over here through normal swappage)
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On December 14 2012 06:37 slOosh wrote:
austinmcc do you prefer randombum over the other two? He has shown that he is in the least reading the thread. I'm leaning kenpachi at the moment. I'm leaning away from marv for now based on some results.
I'm fine leaning away from marv atm. That takes us to
randombum
dienosore
kenpachi
Kenpachi feels like the "nobody else looks scummy" option. At the very least, I don't want us voting him now and leaving votes there when we've somewhat wasted today. So I'm most interested in randombum and dienosore.
Random HAS been reading thread, or was yesterday, but...in terms of what has happened during half this cycle, he's been MIA. He was commenting yesterday, on the swaps, on marv/foolishness/palmar, but then poof. Way less commentary when things started picking up with clarity's swaps and my objection. The change in reading/activity can be explained by any number of things, but ... I'm no longer sure that I want to stick him way on the side of "reading thread" after participation today. If that makes any sense. His reaction to clarity's swap, that clarity "screwed things up" is WEIRD. randombum was voting, and is voting, PALMAR. clarity didn't mess with randombum's vote, so I don't know what clarity could have screwed up. That phrase is...odd. Real odd.
slOosh, thoughts on that post in particular?
dienosore I'm waiting on, but he seems to be sheeping a thought process from some guy he's never explained his read on, and in doing so is voting a guy he says he is voting now as a way of "taking potshots at the scummiest looking lurkers." He's not explained yet WHY kenpachi is "the scummiest looking," unless less people talking about someone = scumminess in dienosore's mind. That troubles me.
I would prefer lynching into one of these two today over kenpachi I think? Right now the more I look at them, the more I keep disliking little things.
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EPT
