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On December 26 2012 15:42 cakepie wrote:
Sylencia: Please provide a risk-reward assessment on "lynch shz for voting irresponsibly" vs "lynch kickstart for delibarate calculated lurking". Based on their play and your current read on them, how would you weigh the costs of mislynching if they are town, and the potential damage from not lynching if they are scum?
I'll answer this soon, but with your second question are you referring to what happens if we lynch one of them and they are town / not lynching one and they are scum?
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Alright, let's see:
Kickstart has been extremely inactive during the course of this game, and has contributed very little to the game.In the case of a mislynch, what have we gained? Not very much - we have removed yet another suspicious person off our list yet it is another townie. That is a pretty bad situation for us, since that means the scum have lurked/blended in well enough that we literally have no idea what is going on. However, what we gain is that we end up cutting off what could be considered dead weight. Having participated the least, and providing nothing, it is hard for us to get anything from him.
If Kick is a scum, he is doing so in a very obvious manner. Should he not be voted out today, he will probably be the number one target tomorrow and I don't think very much is going to change that unless he is killed off by the mafia. So if he is scum, and we kill someone who isn't scum, tomorrow would be 4:3, killing him would lead it down to be 3:2 etc. etc. meaning we would need to hit perfectly for the final rounds. Danger of leaving him really depends on how much information we can get out from voting someone else - at the current moment it'll probably be shz or FC.
The risk of voting out shz is that if he is town, we're really leaving ourselves vulnerable to scum manipulation in votes. The majority of the town has not really been active in choosing votes, there's just a lot of bandwagoning happening. shz, while he has been voting non-optimally, still gives us a reasonable chance of voting out scum if we find one, if he is town. The problem lies with his loyalty, which is up in the air, but I am honestly unsure of his status.
If we leave in shz and he is scum, the reverse of what I mentioned just now happens, where he can easily manipulate the votes with the rest of the scum playing a bandwagon game, requiring only one extra vote to end the game. This can easily be done, and it's rather risky. Personally, I'd still consider Kick a higher priority simply because it's easier to tell by the end of the next day what shz is since he does participate in the discussions.
I've noticed people mentioning FC, but I honestly don't have enough to go off him to make any real comment.
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Just as a note too, what were the roleblock claims:
Day 2: Omni, cake
Day 3: cake, Orange?
Just need to make a note down but I'm not 100% sure and I don't want to really scour through the posts to find them at the moment.
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So the jailkeep gives the same message as a roleblocker?
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First one is worse, because shz has more influence in the town, and the reason why it depends on what happens from another lynch is because either we'll get some sort of idea who is scum from the deaths, or the scum will mislead town by pointing out things which don't exist. So as an example, say I suspect X, and I have been an active roleplayer throughout this game (I haven't been, but let's say I have). X was one of the first votes for me, and suddenly the scum are suspecting he was pushing for a mislynch and then X gets targetted the next day. In this case, Kick just gets a free pass to live, and everyone jumps on X. Now, there's not too many people who could get lynched where this situation would probably occur, but there's always a chance that Kick can get by just by lynching.
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Having a framer in play suggests there's a Cop in play, right?
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No, I just went afk, and I also completely forgot about the game yesterday. I'm here now.
In terms of Kick's actions, he was claiming shz was scum from Day 2, so it's not like he found a window of opportunity to bus shz, he's did it for almost a week. Instead, I feel like it's the people who switched votes who saw it as a window of opportunity to grab the game right there, since it was such a hasty move as well I don't see it as anything but extremely suspicious.
Also only just noticed I missed Chrom's post from yesterday:
On December 28 2012 06:56 Chromatically wrote:
I don't see any scumteam that doesn't include shz and Syl, and I see no scumteam that includes Kick.
Both claims look to be completely false, and insanely suspicious too.
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At this point the possible remaining scum teams I can see being feasible are 2 of Chrom, Orange and FC, with Orange and Fatchunk's play in the last half hour looking absolutely ridiculous, if they are both scum, I'd laugh pretty hard and how messed up this game became.
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On December 28 2012 14:29 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2012 12:13 Sylencia wrote:
At this point the possible remaining scum teams I can see being feasible are 2 of Chrom, Orange and FC, with Orange and Fatchunk's play in the last half hour looking absolutely ridiculous, if they are both scum, I'd laugh pretty hard and how messed up this game became. 1. how would you order the three suspects? 2. What of shz? Earlier, you mentioned that his loyalty was still "up in the air": Show nested quote +On December 26 2012 19:30 Sylencia wrote:
The risk of voting out shz is that if he is town, we're really leaving ourselves vulnerable to scum manipulation in votes. The majority of the town has not really been active in choosing votes, there's just a lot of bandwagoning happening. shz, while he has been voting non-optimally, still gives us a reasonable chance of voting out scum if we find one, if he is town. The problem lies with his loyalty, which is up in the air, but I am honestly unsure of his status.
If we leave in shz and he is scum, the reverse of what I mentioned just now happens, where he can easily manipulate the votes with the rest of the scum playing a bandwagon game, requiring only one extra vote to end the game. This can easily be done, and it's rather risky. Personally, I'd still consider Kick a higher priority simply because it's easier to tell by the end of the next day what shz is since he does participate in the discussions. Does kickstart's shz vote + the failed switch convince you that Shz is town? We've lynched kickstart, but shz's "non-optimal" voting may still be a liability as town, or mask his intentions as a bandwagoning scum. How would you assess his participation in D3 discussions, notwithstanding the failed wagon on him?
1. FC, Chrom then Orange, the difference between my suspicions of Chrom and Orange are very very slim. Honestly, they both look super shady to me. The reason why FC looks the most scummy to me is because he decided to switch votes at the very last minute, even though he was already voting for someone he 'suspected', and even though he had more of a 'suspicion' on shz he decided not to bring it up or change his vote any sooner. My guess is that because there was the last minute rush, if there was a person who blindly moved over then the vote would be over and there would be yet another mislynch.
As for shz, I think the fact the scum tried to kill him off gives him a very strong town image. If he is scum, hats off to them, the last 30 minutes and Kick's accusations of him have really made him look a lot less suspicious. I wouldn't put it past Kick either to be planning that, which is why I'm not completely discounting it, but the other 3 were definitely a lot more shady. His play is still non-commital, but what he has done during Day 3 was definitely a lot more town-oriented than what a lot of the other people were doing.
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On December 28 2012 17:56 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2012 16:50 Sylencia wrote:
...
1. FC, Chrom then Orange, the difference between my suspicions of Chrom and Orange are very very slim. Honestly, they both look super shady to me.
... Besides the end of day three, what about Chromatic's play strikes you as shady?
Honestly, it looks like it was just leftover sentiments from night 2, where he mentioned the lurker lynch stuff, but after reading his filter again I failed to really make a case against him... I'm guess it was just that and the end of day play that make me feel weird about him. I'm still going to be wary of him though.
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So now cake will probably take the fall, so that your little case against Aqua and I will suggest we are mafia? Seems like a pretty weak attempt at a misdirection right there.
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Shz is the only one who I could see going down because of what happened yesterday. His chance of being scum is probably the lowest of everyone in the game right now.
If you stay alive, he's making a play at you to vote someone other than himself.
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Lol, but I already gave that answer.
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Orange's actions during D3/N3 have led me to believe he is scum, I'm not sure if last night was some sort of threat or just foretelling of what is to come, but Orange if you are scum you played the last cycle pretty badly 
##Vote Orangeremi
Anyone need more info from me, go ahead and shoot.
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On December 29 2012 14:20 cakepie wrote:
Just to be clear, syl, you were not roleblocked?
Actually I was, didn't realise I had the PM.
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I'm around, I'm just trying to figure things out based on the potential of 1 town / 1 scum theory.
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What are we looking at though, which actions hurt scum less or which actions hurt town more? The former seems a lot harder to prove / have a solid basis on because we don't know who the other scum is.
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Corazon: The reads I had changed. If you looked after the post where I said that Orange was my third, he decided to post and it looked like a very scummy post to me. Honestly, it looked like a desperate play from my perspective. That is why I voted for him at the start of the day.
Also, when I voted Orange, I was still under the impression I was voting for FC next. There would be no town image projected to him if I was to vote him right after, right? This was before the 1-1 theory came about, and honestly, I'm not exactly sold on the 1-1 theory yet either.
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How does today's vote prove or disprove the 1-1 theory? In fact, isn't it detrimental to us if we prove the 1-1 theory by flipping a town? If that happens, we're down to 3-2 on Day 5, and the chances that we survive that are quite slim. Naturally, if it so happens to be we prove this theory, then so be it, but shouldn't we concentrate on who is scum between them? (Scum flip neither proves or disproves the 1-1 theory)
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EPT
