HAPA AND ZBO? Most likely. Marv still lives but scum prolly did that on purpose.
If we mislynch, do we lose?
Also...
##Vote: Hapahauli
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
HAPA AND ZBO? Most likely. Marv still lives but scum prolly did that on purpose. If we mislynch, do we lose? Also... ##Vote: Hapahauli | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Shortly before the N2 deadline, you posted a response to Palmar detailing your reads on the entire playerbase. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953¤tpage=99#1976 Notable from this post: ... VE - the posts he HAS made have consistently made me lean town on this guy. His out and out dumbness on various issues (adam reads post, clarity) are strongly reminiscent of his town play. The problem is what he HASN'T posted. I'd be ok with him if in between the pants-on-head there was VE trying to figure out play. It doesn't seem that way. He could be time-constrained or whatever, but actually I respect VE enough that i expect more of SOMETHING from him and I haven't had it, so I'm thinking scum right now. ... You were thinking scum on VE, and then one of your first posts on Day 3: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953¤tpage=103#2059 Nice job there. jay managed to 'look town' to some of us here during day 1, and has basically ridden that all the way through the game. There's constant admissions that he's not doing anything, promises to do more... but we never actually get anything. Scum again. Right now then I'm looking at Djodref, Hapahauli. jaybrundage. Thoughts guys? You then attack my rationale for defending VE... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953¤tpage=104#2070 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953¤tpage=104#2072 And then... On December 17 2012 22:28 marvellosity wrote: Screw this. We'll see what Hapa comes up with later and if I have to phone post to change votes or whatever then that's what I'll have to do ##Unvote ##Vote: VisceraEyes So my questions to you: 1) Why did you vote VE, when you were looking at myself, Djo, and Jay as the scumteam? 2) Can you walk us through your thought process on N2/D3 in regards to your suspicions? | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Around the time that VE claimed cop, you took a rather exasperated stance on things: On December 18 2012 09:23 marvellosity wrote: Z-Bo has gone according to his last post, i assume he's referring to what i pasted here. i fucking hate this. none of his play is townie, but i hate lynching uncounterclaimed DTs. djfnsdk I think we have to lynch him and hope he doesn't flip DT or we feel very stupid In this post, it seems very clear that you're not thrilled about the idea of lynching VE and are pretty torn on things. 4 minutes later... On December 18 2012 09:33 marvellosity wrote: pretty sure it's VE/jay right now On December 18 2012 09:40 marvellosity wrote: Show nested quote + On December 18 2012 09:39 jaybrundage wrote: Why the HELL WOULD I AS SCUM BE TRYING TO STOP A VE LYNCH. HES EITHER A TOWN AND IM THE DUMBEST MAFIA PLAYER EVER. OR HES SCUM IN WHICH CASE I WOULD JUST BUS HIS ASS. BUT if im town. And then that means that the fucking math makes perfect sense. VE ISNT SCUM Hapa, you've missed the point. it sets up perfectly jay is scum with VE. jay hard-opposes VE's lynch at VE's orders two results: 1) jay averts the VE lynch 2) jay doesn't avert the VE lynch but everyone goes "omg, scum would NEVER do that, it's SO blates!" winwin for scumjay What I found odd about this was both your explanation and the turn-around time. You go from uneasy to extremely convinced by the actions of a player that wasn't VE. More odd is what's missing in your analysis - nowhere do you describe why VE/Jay scumteam is more likely than the alternative (Jay = stupid town). You simply state that VE/Jay is scum because this grand plan could have happened. Bonus: On December 18 2012 09:51 marvellosity wrote: again, this is why it would be a good play and it'd be fucking VE orchestrating it. And it's the fact that intelligent people against you fight against the idea that make it good. On December 18 2012 09:51 marvellosity wrote: *intelligent people like you This post is odd considering the context of the game. On Day 3, I was presumably one of your top scumreads (you had your vote on me earlier in the day), and yet the bolded statement seems to imply that I'm town. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On December 23 2012 08:20 Hapahauli wrote: @ Marv Shortly before the N2 deadline, you posted a response to Palmar detailing your reads on the entire playerbase. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953¤tpage=99#1976 Notable from this post: Show nested quote + ... VE - the posts he HAS made have consistently made me lean town on this guy. His out and out dumbness on various issues (adam reads post, clarity) are strongly reminiscent of his town play. The problem is what he HASN'T posted. I'd be ok with him if in between the pants-on-head there was VE trying to figure out play. It doesn't seem that way. He could be time-constrained or whatever, but actually I respect VE enough that i expect more of SOMETHING from him and I haven't had it, so I'm thinking scum right now. ... You were thinking scum on VE, and then one of your first posts on Day 3: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953¤tpage=103#2059 Show nested quote + Nice job there. jay managed to 'look town' to some of us here during day 1, and has basically ridden that all the way through the game. There's constant admissions that he's not doing anything, promises to do more... but we never actually get anything. Scum again. Right now then I'm looking at Djodref, Hapahauli. jaybrundage. Thoughts guys? You then attack my rationale for defending VE... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953¤tpage=104#2070 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953¤tpage=104#2072 And then... Show nested quote + On December 17 2012 22:28 marvellosity wrote: Screw this. We'll see what Hapa comes up with later and if I have to phone post to change votes or whatever then that's what I'll have to do ##Unvote ##Vote: VisceraEyes So my questions to you: 1) Why did you vote VE, when you were looking at myself, Djo, and Jay as the scumteam? 2) Can you walk us through your thought process on N2/D3 in regards to your suspicions? On December 19 2012 00:29 marvellosity wrote: Show nested quote + On December 19 2012 00:20 Z-BosoN wrote: Actually, marv, there is one thing I'd like you to explain. Why did you vote VE, if you said your main suspects were jay, Djodref and Hapahauli? Mostly because my reads were kinda in flux the relationships between jay/djo/hapa seemed to make sense when I'd done some rooting around (hapa defending djo, jay fail-pushing djo, etc), so I thought I'd see what people thought about it (hence the lack of a vote at the time). Hapa persuaded me to unvote him on time issues, and I was losing confidence in a Djo lynch That left VE who still wasn't doing anything and really seemed the safest lynch of the lot after all. Which was right thankfully. Effectively after the end of night 2 and when I'd made that post, I'd spent quite a lot of time filtering people and at that moment those 3 made sense as a package, which is why I presented it as such and asked for thoughts from the rest of town. Events after that post led me to fall away from Djo and you, leaving behind VE who was an independent scumread. | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On December 23 2012 08:47 Hapahauli wrote: Moar @ Marv Around the time that VE claimed cop, you took a rather exasperated stance on things: Show nested quote + On December 18 2012 09:23 marvellosity wrote: Z-Bo has gone according to his last post, i assume he's referring to what i pasted here. i fucking hate this. none of his play is townie, but i hate lynching uncounterclaimed DTs. djfnsdk I think we have to lynch him and hope he doesn't flip DT or we feel very stupid In this post, it seems very clear that you're not thrilled about the idea of lynching VE and are pretty torn on things. 4 minutes later... Show nested quote + On December 18 2012 09:40 marvellosity wrote: On December 18 2012 09:39 jaybrundage wrote: Why the HELL WOULD I AS SCUM BE TRYING TO STOP A VE LYNCH. HES EITHER A TOWN AND IM THE DUMBEST MAFIA PLAYER EVER. OR HES SCUM IN WHICH CASE I WOULD JUST BUS HIS ASS. BUT if im town. And then that means that the fucking math makes perfect sense. VE ISNT SCUM Hapa, you've missed the point. it sets up perfectly jay is scum with VE. jay hard-opposes VE's lynch at VE's orders two results: 1) jay averts the VE lynch 2) jay doesn't avert the VE lynch but everyone goes "omg, scum would NEVER do that, it's SO blates!" winwin for scumjay What I found odd about this was both your explanation and the turn-around time. You go from uneasy to extremely convinced by the actions of a player that wasn't VE. More odd is what's missing in your analysis - nowhere do you describe why VE/Jay scumteam is more likely than the alternative (Jay = stupid town). You simply state that VE/Jay is scum because this grand plan could have happened. Bonus: Show nested quote + On December 18 2012 09:51 marvellosity wrote: again, this is why it would be a good play and it'd be fucking VE orchestrating it. And it's the fact that intelligent people against you fight against the idea that make it good. This post is odd considering the context of the game. On Day 3, I was presumably one of your top scumreads (you had your vote on me earlier in the day), and yet the bolded statement seems to imply that I'm town. Not a lot to say other than I had a zing moment on jay where it all made sense to me. Usually these things aren't a gradual realisation but they come to you while you're in the thread seeing things. As to the comment on intelligence, it doesn't imply that you're town at all. You are intelligent, and whether town or scum the point is correct. | ||
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On December 23 2012 08:58 Hapahauli wrote: So as I'm looking through Marv's filter, one of the huge problems that I'm having is that there's very little analysis pertaining to people that have actually flipped scum, and tons of analysis on people that have flipped town. What of this? Mostly I sheeped Palmar day 1 on Adam, and I said enough about VE because there was not a lot to say about him. It's pretty easy to provide detailed analysis on scumbuddies because you know they're scum with unpure motives and if you're bussing them why not. This point is ass backwards. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Firstly, his veteran claim is very risky from a scum perspective. There's a high chance that there are 4 blues in this game. Given that he claimed veteran, he would risk a lot of pressure on himself had a 5th blue counterclaimed. No one has done so, and the risk/reward of such a fake-claim suggests that Marv is town. In addition, there are too many easy opportunities he has turned down to be scum. He could have very easily pushed the BL lynch and come out fine from it. In addition, of all the players he seemed the most concerned about finding out Djo's alignment and objectively considering things. Finally, he's been the most hesitant to jump on my lynch out of the players. As a last point, I'm coming away from his interaction with Tunkeg (page 11 of his filter) as pretty authentic: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953&user=140487¤tpage=11 I'm not sure why marv is alive right now, but his play shows far too much correlation with his town play (and not nearly enough with his scum-play) for him to be scum. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Firstly, let's take a quote from VE himself: On December 14 2012 15:40 VisceraEyes wrote: ZBoson sure likes shoveling shit at people he has no interest in lynching. From D1: + Show Spoiler [Vivax] + On December 11 2012 04:05 Z-BosoN wrote: Yea, vivax's post seems too much like "look at me trying hard to scumhunt" The lack of follow-up also worries me. Never follows up on this. + Show Spoiler [debears] + On December 11 2012 04:17 Z-BosoN wrote: @debears I see you've got some Adam going on for ya. I think you are getting too riled up over expecting someone to go balls out on a day one suspicion. You, for example, are not nearly as spammy as your day one self. I don't think this aligns with your townie play, but I don't think it necessarily makes you scummy. I am curious to hear from adam his stance on thrawn, as he seemed to have dropped it.. Defends Adam here as an added bonus. + Show Spoiler [wherebugsgo] + On December 11 2012 04:18 Z-BosoN wrote: Show nested quote + On December 11 2012 04:12 wherebugsgo wrote: On December 11 2012 04:02 Z-BosoN wrote: I don't get why you are assuming there are four scum, is this obvious due to the setup? Also, I don't understand why you chose to use the "80%" argument in wanting to go for palmar BEFORE that explanation in the quoted post, when that argument is easily applied to any of the people who hadn't posted. If not 4 scum, then what? 3 is too few, and 5 is too many. With 1 kp per night any other numbers are not very balanced unless there is some sort of blue distribution that makes other numbers likely. You don't understand the rest of it because you didn't read properly. That won't do. Show nested quote + On December 10 2012 12:47 wherebugsgo wrote: alrighty. I've concluded from the current events that there's an 80% preliminary chance that Palmar is scum. Therefore I'm voting him, at least until he comes back and proves me otherwise. ##unvote ##vote Palmar Why did you say 80% chance yatta yatta here? Why not give the explanation you gave later on when ppl started asking questions? I don't even know what the relevance is here. Bugs percentage is completely arbitrary anyway. + Show Spoiler [Munk-E] + On December 11 2012 04:50 Z-BosoN wrote: Show nested quote + On December 11 2012 04:43 jaybrundage wrote: On December 11 2012 01:35 Clarity_nl wrote: On December 11 2012 01:32 jaybrundage wrote: On December 10 2012 23:52 Clarity_nl wrote: Hey marv, you've explain why we shouldn't vote a bunch of people (thrawn, jay, palmar) but do you have any reasons we should vote a someone? On December 10 2012 22:04 marvellosity wrote: On jay, I'm ok on how he explained his 'slips'. My only worry with jay is that he comes across as overly... compliant?: "Glad someone is reading my posts. I felt like i wasnt get any feedback from them." "I do appreciate you giving your reasoning behind your claim. It helps me understand you a bit." I don't particularly think much of it atm, was just weird when I was reading them. I would say it was indicative of the fact he didn't want to ruffle feathers, but he's not been afraid to put himself out there, so it isn't that. His response reminds me of my own scum game. I showed no emotion that game, I just tried to remain logical and not to ruffle anyone's feathers, thinking that if I kept that up eventually people would stay away from me because I answered every question and reasoned away any doubt. @ Jay I read some of the stuff in your linked games, and yes you lyched town D1 but I never saw you say anything remotely close to "well I guess I should be more careful of early bandwagons". Not during any of the games and not in the pre-games or post-games either. The thing is, you say you don't want to jump on an "easy bandwagon" this game, but you do. All you don't do is you haven't voted for thrawn, but he's the only person you've put pressure on. So why mention it? It's an easy way out. It seems like common sense. If I get on easy bandwagons as town. Shouldn't i avoid em? Im not you I don't find it necessary or needed to call people dumb or idiots like some players here do. It is it that unexpected to show some respect to people : / I call people dumb or idiots? So other than Thrawn, who is an easy bandwagon to you so should be avoided, who stands out as scummy? I didnt mean you specifically but some people in TL mafia do. I actually am starting to lean more neutral on Thrawn. In my early mind set I just couldnt see someone misclaiming as a joke, or risk getting them selves lynched. Im a little worried about our lurkers. And i would prefer to see more posts out of ZBoston. Specifically ZBoston what do you think about Claritys case on me and some people soft defending me. Also MunkE has had like 3 posts since his /in and every single one of them is mostly about WBG statistic. Do we really have to nitpick over something like that. WBG was mostly trying to bait Palmar out. Lets hear your thoughts on some cases On Vivax its odd. He seems really interested in going after Thrawns claim and saying that Ve defended it as a joke. When its not a joke. Even when thrawn said his self it was just a joke. That he stubbornly. Refused to explain to generate discussion. I think he is concentrating on thrawns little joke to much to the exclusion of everything else. I can see him being scum. ##Vote Vivax (Because some people get SOOOOO antsy if you dont follow your argument with your vote.) It's Z-Boson. It's funny you should mention Munk-E, because he has a town read on WBG, even though he disagrees with WBG's logic. Does anyone find this post right here: Show nested quote + On December 11 2012 01:44 Munk-E wrote: On December 11 2012 01:10 Djodref wrote: @ Munk-E Could you confirm me that it's only your second game on these forums ? You get yourself lynched D1 or D2 for being inactive in a newbie lately, am I right ? Weird scum or weird town for WBG ? By the way, the way he phrased it didn't exactly mean he was 80% sure he was mafia. It was a preliminary thing, so I understood it as valuable only for this early game. This is actually my 4th or fifth game. I can't find the others in my post history, because i guess TL doesn't keep a post history that's that old. Yes, day 1 lynch last time, I'm gonna try to be more active so people don't waste their lynch again for no reason other than i didn't say enough. as for WBG, the more i think about it, the more I think he's more likely to be town. If he was scum, this play would either be to bus palmer if he's scum, which would be stupid and unnecessary, or to try to start a bandwagon on him if he's town, which would most likely be futile. He could be trying to appear to be an aggressive scumhunter, attacking harmless enemies though, so he seems town, but then again, aggressive scumhunting seems town. I see his logic now, but it is flawed. I highly doubt that all the scum were lurkers. Any close to being normal? He then votes for Djodref after making a big case, only to drop it and vote for Tunkeg. Interestingly enough, he does so in the name of consolidation, yet is one of the only people not on the Adam wagon. He can say he thought Adam was town all he wants: he only unvoted Djodref in the name of consolidation though, and consolidate he did not. He pushed a counter-wagon. And if he wanted to do that, he could have stayed on Djodref. ##Unvote: Clarity_nl ##Vote: ZBoson While it feels funny to use the case of a flipped scum, it's a shockingly accurate description of Z-Boson's gameplay so far. He makes a bunch of huge cases on several players. While this is fine, Z-Boson rather shockingly never gives a town read for all of D1! He also never attempts to even defend a player (other than Adam, whom he once indirectly defends by "preferring" a Tunkeg lynch). Now giving town-reads isn't a scum-tell or town-tell one way or the other. However, not giving any town reads ALL of Day 1 is a bit... sketch. It matches a scum motivation of wanting to spread suspicion in the thread. Half-Hearted Bus of VE On N2, Z-Boson posts... On December 16 2012 10:32 Z-BosoN wrote: vivax. Yep that's it. Doesn't follow up on this read at all. He also attacks me for changing my mind on VE: On December 17 2012 10:21 Z-BosoN wrote: @marv It's interesting you mention Hapa. I also noted his change of mind on VE, and Hapa's usually not one to sheep like that. I look forward to his defense. @Djo I like how you are actually trying. One question though, why post a BL case right after making a case on your main suspect? However, Z-Boson's first post of Day 3: On December 17 2012 12:07 Z-BosoN wrote: Okay, I'm down to lynching VE. I don't like how he disappeared and hasn't really responded to anything. He doesn't seem interested in the game AT ALL. If you guys recall, we hadn't interacted at all up until he noted my "scumslip". He then made his "case" on me: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953¤tpage=81#1607 And parked his vote on me. This came at a time when I had some pressure on me. I agree a lot with Djo's point on how he is really just going with the flow. Note how his play is in complete contrast with his game on Liquid City. When he found me to be scum, he spent quite some time interacting with me, prodding around asking other people (BC) what they thought of me, etc. He then gave some attention elsewhere when I wasnt getting any traction. Take a look at the interaction that begins in the last 4-5 posts of this page: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=371260&user=117978¤tpage=8 And some in the next page as well. This game it's complete and utter crap. He gives a crap reason (that basically surmounts to: I'm prodding people everywhere) and doesnt push me, doesnt do shit. He parks his vote on me and keeps it there, saying later just how he'd be down to lynch me. Doesn't ask other people what they think of me, doesn't try to push his "scum read". There's also that whole Palmar wants him dead thing. I'm curious to see what his next move is. Yep Z-Boson wants to lynch VE after not talking about him the ENTIRE game. The only time I can find Z-Boson talking about VE in his entire filter is this post - an end-of-the-night "in case I die" post in which he leaves us with zero substantial conclusions: ... tl;dr
I didn't proof read, but tried to make it easier to understand as I was writing this. Let me know what you guys think. So Z-Boson parks his vote on Jay for the entire day after wanting to lynch VE. At the VE counter claim, Z-Boson is initially super-hesitant, and wants to lynch annnnyone but VE: On December 18 2012 07:50 Z-BosoN wrote: I gotta leave in 30 min If no one counters I'm gonna leave my vote on Jay I think On December 18 2012 08:02 Z-BosoN wrote: I'd much rather lynch jay, but hapa I think also has good chances of popping scum On December 18 2012 08:27 Z-BosoN wrote: This looks like liquid city all over again. But when it's clear that VE is going to be lynched and time is running out (15 minutes before the flip), LOLNOPE, YOU'RE SCUM VE!! LOLOLOLOL On December 18 2012 08:44 Z-BosoN wrote: Ok, guys, VE's play is in total fucking contrast of his townie game. Palmar is almost sure he's scum. He has no crumb. Even in LC mafia he had some sort of crumb. His push on me makes no fucking sense from a townie perspective. Refer to Liquid City mafia. It's risky for a cop to counter-claim right now, he'll get nked with little chance to actually investigate. Everything points to VE being scum. The alternative to that is a no-lynch, which gets us nowhere. I have to go right now, so I'll take his bluff. ##Vote VisceraEyes | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
##Vote Z-Boson | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On December 18 2012 07:50 Z-BosoN wrote: I gotta leave in 30 min If no one counters I'm gonna leave my vote on Jay I think I initially took this quote to mean that Z-Boson had his vote parked on Jay. This is not the case... whoops. Z-Boson didn't vote until 12 minutes before the deadline, when he parked his vote on VE. Regardless of the vote, the case should demonstrate how scummy his deadline actions were. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
Z-BosoN's Comprehensive Guide to Murdering Scum A townie's guide to victory Part I Ok, I've read enough so I feel comfortable with the game. First of all, Hapahauli is very likely to be scum. Everything in his play points towards this direction. I am not going to waste time depicting how inactive and not present he is, because that's justified with RL stuff (which he has insistent on saying all game) and is consistent with how his meta is different in both his scum and town alignments. I will focus on how he's changing some of his reads and opinions to suit mafia-related goals. 1.) Hapa's town reads This is a rather strong point for me. Normally I agree with his town-reads, it is one aspect I find rather strong in his play. This game it is very different. I remember at a point in the game, most of his townreads were scumreads to me. Of course this is extremely irrelevant if not properly discussed, so here are some examples of townreads he has that come off as weird. This first block is just shit I disagree with, but aren't necessarily scummy. This, for me, has a certain strength because like I said earlier, I usually feel comfortable with his town reads, something which hasn't happened this game. meh reads Djo - His first real townread and one he's had all game. He claims Djo to be town because of his "tryhardness" or something of the like, but mostly ignores the crazy shitton of scummy stuff there is in Djo's filter, such as lying, being inconsistent, etc. etc. There's still room for it being a legit town read here, but this is diminished in context with how he ignored Palmar's views on him. I'll go more on that later. Palmar - Says Palmar is town because he made no attempt to go for someone other than Adam. Meh. I disagree that would be enough for someone like Palmar but let's leave it at that. Vivax - Made quite a fair townread on him, but when I attempted to discuss it at a time when Vivax was doing some suspicious stuff, he pretty much didn't dwelve too much into it, but I think I had a made a fair point, in this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953¤tpage=98#1948 Not gonna make this a sticking point because this might go into Hapa not being all that attentive this game or whatever. the fuck? reads Now comes the town reads that really mess things up and that I would judge to be the stronger part of this section. They start off as town reads but later conveniently turn into scum ones. This transition is what gets to me and is the highlight of this part. Tunkeg - Hapa's reaction to Tunkeg's post, initially, is the following: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953¤tpage=52#1021 Tunkeg - Another wishy-washy player from what I've seen of his meta. I do like his "martyr" post quite a bit, because based on his general "mentality" as a player, I feel it's not a type of post that a player like him would make as a scum. Though I haven't seen a scum-game that he's played, which is why I'm a bit more hesitant. Maybe slightly townie, but nothing like the guys above. Tunkeg had also found this weird earlier when Hapa mentioned it: On December 12 2012 17:35 Hapahauli wrote: Show nested quote + On December 12 2012 17:32 Tunkeg wrote: WTF do you know about my meta? Have me and you ever played a game? Have you read through my games after being replaced in (while you just now have been able to read up on this game)? Also you say my meta is wishy washy, lol. Are you sure you haven't skimmed through the scum QT and have misunderstood what they wrote about my meta? Yes I skimmed a couple of your games. Whaddya think I"ve been doing for the last few hours? He likes the martyr post, despite disagreeing with some of the reads Tunkeg has made, something into which he admits later on. Very weird: On December 12 2012 18:04 Hapahauli wrote: Show nested quote + On December 12 2012 17:59 Tunkeg wrote: On December 12 2012 17:45 Hapahauli wrote: But thrawn and/or Tunkeg - some feedback on my read-dump would be appreciated. TBH I don't care to much about your reads. When I am assessing you your reads will be part of my assessment. But for now your reads are your reads, I agree on some of them (obviously) and some I don't. But I can tell you this much, I like that you posted some reads, it will make it easier to read you further down the line. Well I'm interested in some of yours though. Particularly the ones on Djo and Vivax, since I'm drawing the opposite conclusions from some folks in the thread atm. And it gets even better. Hapa has a townie feel on a martyr post with two reads he disagrees with. Curiously enough, all that goes to shit later on, when scum Hapa decides Tunkeg is a suitable mislynch: On December 13 2012 10:17 Hapahauli wrote: Between Bluelightz and Tunkeg for me atm. Tunkeg's martyr post doesn't look too hot right now given WBG's flip. When I asked him about it, it led to: On December 13 2012 12:12 Hapahauli wrote: Show nested quote + On December 13 2012 12:01 Z-BosoN wrote: On December 13 2012 11:53 Hapahauli wrote: On December 13 2012 11:51 Z-BosoN wrote: On December 13 2012 10:17 Hapahauli wrote: Between Bluelightz and Tunkeg for me atm. Tunkeg's martyr post doesn't look too hot right now given WBG's flip. Hapa, can you elaborate? Why do you think that Tunkeg looks worse now that WBG has flipped? Part of the reason I was leaning town on him was because I agreed with his read on WBG (martyr post). Since it was wrong though, there's not much else in that post of substance. Some obvious town reads, obvious scum read in Adam, seemingly easy case on Jay... it looks far less townie than it first appeared to me. So if he had given wbg a town read, would he have been looking better atm? I'd say he would have looked better if he expressed some more doubt or skepticisim. On a second readthrough of his filter (WBG-tunnelvision-off), his martyr post reads a lot like "oh since I might get lynched, I'll finally bother to post some reads." I'd like everyone to pause and think here about how ??!!!??!!? this is. Hapa justifies his town->scum transition on Tunkeg because of how certain Tunkeg was in WBG. This does NOT depend on WBG's alignment. Yet, when WBG's alignment came to light, he used it to paint Tunkeg red. This is bullshit. If you need further proof as to why it is bullshit, refer to point 2.) of this post, where I discuss the follow-up on Palmar. Jay - another town read which conveniently went to shit. Hapa had multiple town posts on Jay which I don't feel is relevant to invoke. However, the turning point on which he decided Jay was actually scum was: On December 18 2012 07:38 Hapahauli wrote: interesting. I'll have to think about whether it's true or not. If no one counterclaims, I could get behind a Jay lynch. His tunnel on Djo felt really forced all through today. This feels totally off from someone with multiple references to how jay doesn't seem scummy (if necessary, I'll pull this up). It is also a convenient switch so as to not getting your scumbuddy lynched. He also later includes VE's WIFOM into why he thought jay was scummy, which I feel is extremely weak. Onwards. 2.) Lack of interest I mentioned earlier how I would not get into the merit of hapa being less influential and less present. Even with little time to post, there is still the ability to show interest in the game and finding scum, something which he has failed to do. The main example with him regarding this was his response to a certain post on Palmar. Remember the part I mentioned above regarding on how he would have liked for Tunkeg to be more uncertain on things? Well, Palmar made a certain post which said the exact opposite, and Hapa passively agreed: On December 13 2012 18:45 Hapahauli wrote: Show nested quote + On December 13 2012 18:43 Palmar wrote: oh right, I thought you meant he was trolling me about misusing the words, which I never do. I want to add this thought about Tunkeg's martyr post. Remember that if we assume he is scum, he knows bugs and I are both town, so what are the implications if I fail to stop the wagon that at the time was on him and swing it over to Adam? If he's scum he leaves a lot of things to be considered if he flips, and "opinions" on two loud town players between Bugs and I. My initial thoughts were that if he is scum, he wouldn't dare leave such strong opinions on us, especially as I had already voiced my suspicions of Bugs, and scum calling him scum then flipping scum would probably make me rethink the issue. I still feel the most reasonable explanation is that Tunkeg isn't scum. In one sense, I agree, however Adam left us with something pretty similar as well. I guess my objection to the martyr post is the attitude of - "oh I'm getting lynched, guess I'll finally get around to provide some reads but w/e I'm dead I'll be playing dota" There is all kinds of wrong with this post. First of all, that was NOT his initial objection. As a matter of fact, the attitude Hapa mentions had always been there. On that same attitude, he gave a slight town read, which later turned into a scum-read because on how bugs flipped, not because he changed his mind. Secondly, Palmar said the exact opposite to what Hapa suggested. A townie hapa is inquisitive, and it doesn't take more than a few minutes to discuss this with Palmar. And yet, what Hapa does is simply shrug it off. Only when I noted it later, did he choose to go back on his thoughts: The "sense" is just Palmar's perspective on things that I really hadn't thought about too much. That being said, sleeping on things, I pretty heavily disagree with Palmar. Scum can very easily take strong stances on things since they know what's up. It's not like they were original opinions either - most of it was just a re-hash of everything that's been said in the thread. This feels very little like town Hapa. A town hapa, on GSL, for example, heavily pounced on me due to little things like choice of words or the post I was quoting. Activity aside, I could tell he was interested in finding scum. This game, it simply doesn't. When Hapa said that I was a scum read out of elimination and didn't give him any reason to think I was town, I was like "oh, piss in a bucket, here he comes". Whatever happened? Nothing, I was left alone. This was a huge tell I shouldn't have ignored earlier on. 3.) VE's bus This was already mentioned earlier by some, but I'd still like to point out that this is mega-suspicious. Hapa had VE marked off as "idiot town" for pretty much a big part of day 2. Palmar comes in saying VE is likely scum, comes in saying Djo is likely scum. Djo comes off as townie still, yet VE suddenly turns scum? He explains it here: On December 17 2012 08:29 Hapahauli wrote: Leaning town on VE initially Asked him a question about something rather scummy in his filter Change my mind on VE when a) VE doesn't respond and b) Palmar (who knows his meta far more than I do) thinks he's "sure to be scum" Then I voted VE. Don't see what's wrong with that b) does not explain why the town read on Djo is still there. a) I did some looking into, and found something very interesting. The only questions I see Hapa asking VE, in his filter are these: On December 13 2012 18:29 Hapahauli wrote: Show nested quote + On December 13 2012 18:24 VisceraEyes wrote: 1) I don't know if it's likely, I'm saying it's possible and therefor terrible play for any vig to counterclaim. It's not about Clarity "gambling" on there being two vigs, it's about the scumteam "knowing" that it's possible and relying on that to keep a vig from counterclaiming. 2) The fact that it was Bugs makes the alternative not likely. I think it's much more likely that scum Clarity shot strong townie Bugs at an opportune time for scum to make a play like that than a town Clarity shooting a veteran scumhunter without giving him a chance to defend himself and find us scum. And regardless of whether you believe Clarity is scum or town, that makes the scum KP debears yes? You're telling me that you believe that scum shot at debears and ONLY debears? 1) Why would it be bad play for a vig to counterclaim here? Closed setup or not, I really doubt there's more than 1 in a 16 man setup. 2) It doesn't matter who the guy is - the top scumread of the thread got shot on N1. How is that not completely normal? Plus Clarity's a new guy - it's not like he knows who Bugs is. Hell even I've never played in a game with Bugs. As for the debears thing, I've given it some thought. The way I see it, there are two possibilities: a) scum only shot at debears. I find this unlikely, given the risk of leaving a hypothetically town marv+Palmar alive b) scum vigi'd debears and shot at marv. This is what I'm thinking happened. Please correct me here if I'm wrong, but I don't find any other "questions" he could have asked VE. What happens after these questions, when VE still hasn't answered Hapa? Well, you guessed it: On December 14 2012 06:05 Hapahauli wrote: Meh, I'm not feelin a VE lynch right now. His thing with clarity reads more as a misguided tunnel than something malicious. Bluelightz on the other hand is ripe for some lynching. Lynch-bait or not, he's one of the few players in the game that hasn't given me any reason to think he's town. Tunkeg being the other, but I rather like that last longer post of his. He also later adds another reason in, that goes with his new "heuristic": On December 17 2012 08:36 Hapahauli wrote: Regarding VE, he hasn't given me any sufficient reason to think he's town. He's my top scumread at the moment. As for Bluelightz, I came away from his "demotivated" conversation much the same as you did. Whiney, but townie. Or at the very least, more townie than VE. Well shit, VE also hadn't given Hapa any reason to believe he was town earlier right? Whatever the hell happened that suddenly this became a tell? I'll tell you. The realization that he had to bus. So not a single one of his reasonings of the VE town->scum transition make the slightest of sense. They all smell like bullshit. Every. Single. One. Conclusion of Part I: Hapa == Scum.
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
Part II Part two of this case will focus on association. I was hoping Hapa would reach more conclusions before making this, but I gotta wake up early in the morning tomorrow and really need to go. I see two strong association cases off of Hapa: marv and Djodref. On Djodref, I can't shake the feeling that we could have been right on him. He's been a scumread for most of this game, and Palmar's as well. Despite his good activity, there's been lots of inconsistent stuff on his filter that make little sense from a townie perspective. Him being scum with Hapa would explain the weird town read which came in day two. Remember that Hapa's first post in this thread was how Djo was the biggest scumread, but quickly that turned into a townread that stayed strong no matter what shards of scumminess came flying by, INCLUDING from Palmar, whom he took VE's read to be genuine, but not Djos. This is a feeling I've had for some part of this game, but Djo's insta-vote into hapa today felt a bit off. I figure that if he were scum he'd see what way the lynch was heading. This might be a bit WIFOMy, but the djo-hapa interaction is weird as balls. I feel much stronger about him being scum with marv though. Marv is a strong and capable player and I do not doubt that he would bus Adam in day one like that. The biggest tell I find though, is how marv pushed Hapahauli when VE claimed, and backed away from it quickly to vote VE, and then, on day 4, didn't push Hapa day 4 at all. It's like his "scumread" on Hapa vanished. This is a similar play to that in Liquid City, where marv sent a bus on Node crashing down, on which he didn't expect Node to get lynched. Hapa's latest "push" on marv is an attestment to this. He begins going strong against marv, but just bluntly states that marv is 99% town to him. Since many players here share the view that marv is looking townie this game, I view this as an attempt to connect with the rest of the town on some ground, which is flimsy as shit. Of course marv claimed vet day 5. How else would he justify being alive? Why does this come off as an "unlikely play for scum to do" in plain mylo? And look now at how quick marv was to bus hapa today to save himself the town cred for tomorrow. I'm more convinced on hapa-marv than hapa-Djo, but I want everyone to pay attention to the details I've tried to lay out as best I could in my guide. Kill Hapa. Kill marv. It should be fairly obvious. And then.... GG | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Unfortunately I'm not scum, but I'll take a look at that monster and see if I think you're town from it. | ||
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
1) Hapa's Town Reads (particularly the one on Tunkeg) Firstly, you say that I shouldn't have initially found Tunkeg town because I disagreed with some of his martyr reads. This is absurd. Whether or not a player is correct has nothing to do with whether they're scum or not. Secondly, you think my switch on Tunkeg is scummy because I "used" WBG's blue-flip. This is both faulty logic and a misrepresentation. I eventually switched to Tunkeg because he was too sure of himself THROUGHOUT his filter on MULTIPLE subjects: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953¤tpage=77#1536 Also, I did find Tunkeg being "too sure" on his WBG read as scummy. Several players in the game (when Tunkeg posted his "martyr" thing) thought WBG was scum. It's really easy for scum to go "oh this guy is 100% scum I'm sure of it." Scum are confident because they know their objectives, and I thought a townie would be less-confident about such a read. I was clearly wrong. 2) Lack of Interest Funny enough, this isn't at all about my lack of interest, but more about my Tunkeg read. But anyway, my "lack of interest" was on display in Chrono Trigger Mafia as well. I was town. I was super-engaged in Mario Mini. I was scum. I've been in much of a different mood this game. I've been far less "involved" due to me being busy. That certainly reflects in my gameplay, but it's not allignment indicative. 3) My "Bus" of VE You are LYING Z-Boson On December 15 2012 10:18 Hapahauli wrote: Not time to vote Palmar. I'll have to look between jay, VE, BL, and Z-Bo for the next scummer. I was planning to post question VE about one of his posts if Tunkeg flipped red. That sadly didn't happen, but the post seems relevant regardless: Show nested quote + On December 14 2012 16:21 VisceraEyes wrote: After looking at Tunkeg's filter, it's mostly blah. Not even in a bad way or good way...just blah. The only thing I don't like about his filter is nicely summed up in Hapa's post on the guy - his periods of absolute certainty that he shouldn't have if he's town. His "martyr reads" and Adam's reads ended up being strikingly similar, but Tunkeg's came first and Adam flipped scum. He MIGHT be scum, but I'm not really interested in lynching him today. I prefer to see ZBoson flip before making a final judgement call on Tunkeg. If I can't get a ZBoson lynch and Tunkeg is the only other alternative however, I would vote for Tunkeg. The bolded is a pretty strong statement. I'm not sure if it's just poor wording or not, but he seems to be putting some heavy suspicion on Tunkeg, then dancing around the issue in favor of Z-Bo. This is my question to VE. You completely ignored it and quoted a different post. What gives? | ||
Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
I didn't give a town read day one? Is that why I'm scum? You're probably comparing that to my play on mario which got me lynched. Well, compare that to my whopping ONE town read in liquid city: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=371260&user=28495 (which a fairly obvious one on shady sands). And my ZERO town reads in XXVIII: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=370487 I skimmed over these, but I think the count is right, you are free to check. Counting just day one of course. I usually like to give my thoughts on after we gain solid information. On the VE lynch, why are you lying? The deadline is @10:00 in the forum time. I made the vote one hour and 15 minutes before the deadline, because that's when I had to go. I didn't talk to VE because VE has been a dick ever since Liquid City. On Chronotrigger, note that even in the scum qt we didn't talk. Unless of course, you are going to use this as a tell and find my other teammate, who I also didn't talk to? Or is it because in your scummy I randomly chose VE? Pssht. Dealing with that second rebuttal post of yours in a sec | ||
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