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On December 05 2012 06:04 debears wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2012 05:33 Xatalos wrote:On December 05 2012 04:45 debears wrote: Xatalos what do you have to say about the stuff posted by me, BH, and austin on WBG?
All I've seen you mention is ShiaoPi and WBG's "how many times VE mentioned ppl" post. You have failed to address any of the main content addressed at WBG, yet you are more than happy to jump on ShiaoPi and Zentor I suppose MrZentor can wait, since it's close to deadline and he isn't even really related to the lynch at hand. By the way, I just had a strange thought. What if the remaining scum were ShiaoPi and austinmcc? I've had austinmcc as a townread for so long, but he's been pretty unimpactful during Day 2 - and recently he's been soft defending ShiaoPi, and simultaneously boarding the opposing bandwagon (WBG). Them being a team would make lots of sense (at least if it wasn't for my original townread on austinmcc). Now, back to WBG. I sometimes start doubting him when reading your (debears etc.) arguments against him, but I have the terrible feeling that I would regret heavily voting for him instead of ShiaoPi. Yeah, he hasn't been as helpful as he could/should have, but the same applies to marvellosity - and he was town of course. The points against WBG aren't really scumtells - they're nulltells that could mean either town or Mafia. They would also mostly apply to marvellosity. There are always two people in a flamefest, and they were both equally guilty for it IMO. Both were caught up in a senseless waste of time, resorting to petty insults and otherwise ignorant posts. I don't think this is condemning for either of them though. In fact, looking at where it has gotten WBG (half the players wanting to lynch him) I doubt he would have entered such a useless interaction with marvellosity in the first place as Mafia. It just makes no sense. Okay, there's the theory that scum WBG wanted to "neutralize" marvellosity's contributions before he could be shot. Is something bizarre like that really worth reducing your own credibility and raising yourself to the spotlight (and to the lynch candidates)? It's far too risky for far too little gain. Occam's razor again points to the simplest explanation: it was just two townies having a stupid argument where neither of them was going to benefit from it in any concrete way. There's always the chance that I'm wrong, but I'm pretty confident that I'm making the right choice right now. But what about his flaming of the town despite him not even being at lynch because he was playing dota? What kind of town motivations are there for that?
Actually, I think that's a null tell at worst. What reason would there be for Mafia to bash the town and gather negative attention for literally zero gain? There's no Mafia motivation for that. Not really a town motivation either, but it fits better with a frustrated townie than a scheming ("hey I'm gonna demolarize town by insulting them, how clever") Mafia.
For example, this is from one of my newbie games. A frustrated townie is... bashing the town, because he is frustrated. There's a decent chance the exact same thing happened here as well.
On April 14 2012 13:23 Dittert wrote: Okay, so I leave this morning feeling pretty good about our chance to lynch a mafia member, and I come back to this.
Oh, btw, while I was gone I went to work where I got jerked around by several clients, had a meeting with an accountant who gave me terrible news, had a spat with my fiance, and found out I have to move out of my current house much sooner than I anticipated. So it's been a banner day...
Now I log on from my fiance's shitty netbook that I can barely type on and I find this garbage?
Here's my read: you're all a bunch of idiots. Seriously.
All I hear about is how "such and such FEELS scummy/townie to me." After 3 or less games of mafia, what makes you think your intuition is worth anything? I'll bet you FEEL like you're constantly producing SCV's too, and I bet you're in the bronze league. For everyone who saw Brood's play as "so obviously mafia/scumslip," what do you think of your judgement now? As I mentioned before, I thought Brood was just kind of bad town (or as I said, "says some really stupid shit").
What irks me is that before I left, we had a pretty good case going against willz and a general ##FoS pointed at yomi. Once willz started posting more, everyone seemed to think that he must be town (why does posting more mean you're town, especially when posts with any kind of substance whatsoever came after Acro and myself built a strong case against him). Okay, so if you're convinced willz is town, why not vote for yomi? Yomi didn't even really have a defense, and I don't understand why everyone switched off of him.
From now on, I would appreciate it if everyone read every post and ignored all of their feelings. Feelings are for little girls. Use your brain. Does post X make sense if so and so is town? What about if they're mafia? Do I see a pattern of posting between people? Remember that the mafia are coordinating with each other. Can you pick out anything that looks like coordination between 3 people? If you think so and so is mafia, with whom are they working? Can you construct a consistent and compelling story about what might be happening in the thread? Are you willing to assume that most people are just chattering townies (which is statistically true)?
And for everyone who consistently says that my logic is dumb, my posts are bad, and my reads are wrong, my only read on brood was that he was a townie doing dumb stuff. Looks like I'm 1 for 1, or 2 for 2 if you count the townie part and the dumb stuff (like making a "scumslip" at the last minute) as 2 separate things.
For the love of god, will the vig please shoot yomi or willz tonight so we can get some real info? Thanks.
Mods, if the tone of this post is too harsh, let me know and I will tone it down in the future.
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WHAT. THE. HECK. This game gets crazier every passing moment. Seriously, Blazinghand, how could you try to get your Mason partner lynched? There isn't even a shred of logic in that.
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Alright, in this situation lynching ShiaoPi makes absolutely no sense. It's very likely that at least someone here is lying, and that someone is most likely Keirathi. BH/MrZentor fakeclaiming now makes zero sense, but Keirathi has the perfect motive to do so. Even if WBG happened to flip Mason, Keirathi would be confirmed town. It's win-win basically.
##Unvote ShiaoPi ##Vote Wherebugsgo
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There's no way around it: we must lynch WBG now. His flip will (at least most likely) clear up this mess and otherwise we'll be just speculating the setup tomorrow. I didn't believe he was Mafia before, but I believe BH/MrZentor as the Mason pair more.
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This game keeps getting from hard to harder. ObsQT must be having a blast. But what other option is there than lynching WBG? If we lynch ShiaoPi and he flips town, we'll just be speculating all day about these claims, when we could confirm Keirathi as either Mafia or Mason right now.
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It's too late to change the lynch at this point. It has to be WBG, nothing else makes sense. I'm dead tired (it's nighttime here and I have an early wakeup) but I just have to see the flip before going to bed.
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Okay........ So Keirathi is Mason (I'm pretty sure at least). But it makes zero sense for BH/MrZentor to fakeclaim now too. And they've breadcrumbed all game and worked together, so it's an extremely small chance they would be Mafia.
What now? Could DYH be SK? Is ShiaoPi Mafia after all? I have to go to sleep now in any case. Maybe this will all make sense tomorrow.
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I'm starting to believe more and more that all of the claims so far have been real. There are some strong points to be made for all of them:
1) If DYH was SK, it would be an almost impossible stroke of luck that he claimed Vigi at such a time when it couldn't have realistically saved him anymore - although it managed to somehow save him anyway. And even if he still somehow was SK, it's a fact that there are still Mafia alive, so it's beyond stupid IMO to lynch a nearly confirmed Vigi while letting Mafia freely continue killing. 2) Keirathi was WBG's Mason partner, and unless this is some really cruel joke of a setup by the host, Keirathi must be town. Granted, it's "paranoia" Mafia, but lynching a confirmed Mason would be too stupid (realistically just doing Mafia's work for them). 3) BH/MrZentor would have been extremely stupid to fakeclaim just to ensure one mislynch at the cost of certainly losing the game eventually. Think about it: we now know that they are both town or both Mafia. If one of them would flip Mafia (lynch/SK kill/whatever), it would be GG right there and then. It's an extremely disadvantegeous position to put yourself into without any real gain. It's also most likely that one of them will be nightkilled before LYLO, which would confirm the other. It would make absolutely zero sense to lynch either of them.
That means we have pretty much half the players as confirmed town, which is a great spot. I'm worried about what roles Mafia might have, though (or if they might have 4 players) considering the strong roles town has. But now it's basically just a process of elimination to figure out the remaining Mafia.
Realistically DYH, Keirathi, BH and MrZentor are out of the picture. I'm also leaning town on debears, sandroba, austinmcc and Lazermonkey. That just leaves... ShiaoPi. What?? There's just no way there would be only 2 Mafia in a setup this stacked with blue roles. I feel like our only sensible option is to lynch ShiaoPi tomorrow, and in hindsight I feel it might have been better to lynch him today instead of WBG. Although WBG's flip at least (practically) confirmed Keirathi and the reality of this setup having tons of blues, so it's not too bad.
I started suspecting this earlier and it's still on the back of my mind, although it ONLY makes sense if ShiaoPi is indeed Mafia. I mean austinmcc's weird behavior towards ShiaoPi. Let me show you some posts of his:
On December 04 2012 23:50 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 22:51 Xatalos wrote: Heh. Well, I really hope so. I've also played with ShiaoPi before and I must say he was a lot more active and decisive back then. He even defended a (Mafia) player to the very end against every other player and was pretty clear on his reads. Now it feels like he's just giving vague reads and jumping on any realistic bandwagon. Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 22:56 ShiaoPi wrote:On December 04 2012 22:51 Xatalos wrote:On December 04 2012 22:38 Keirathi wrote:On December 04 2012 22:34 Xatalos wrote: On the other hand, if ShiaoPi happened to flip town, it would mean some of my reads were seriously wrong. I think I'll have to reread several filters with the mindset that ShiaoPi would actually be town. I'm not seeing it right now, but it's a possibility after all. Don't worry, he's not going to flip town. I've played with town ShiaoPi and scum ShiaoPi. This ShiaoPi is the latter. Heh. Well, I really hope so. I've also played with ShiaoPi before and I must say he was a lot more active and decisive back then. He even defended a (Mafia) player to the very end against every other player and was pretty clear on his reads. Now it feels like he's just giving vague reads and jumping on any realistic bandwagon. That game was a long time ago and I was also in a different timezone, much more fitting for playing with EU/NA. Just saying you should not take that game as a basis for meta, go for more recent games such as Liquid City or LVI and LVII Xatalos, I would suggest looking at... LVII at least. I remember having the same feeling about ShiaoPi there that I did D1 here. He turned out to be town. It doesn't make him town here, but ... I've seen town ShiaoPi be relatively uninvested early compared to his play in that newbie game.
It somehow looks like austinmcc is reluctant to talk about ShiaoPi. He rarely even mentions ShiaoPi, let alone asks him anything or interacts with him. When he does mention ShiaoPi, it's like this post (soft defending him without really committing to anything). In my mind it's way more scummy to make vague defenses for Mafia players than to directly defend them or to at least openly analyze them (granted, we don't know ShiaoPi's flip at this point).
On December 06 2012 04:28 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2012 02:06 ShiaoPi wrote: Okay I must admit that I came back to the thread this late, because I fully expected to be lynched by all of your for stupid reasons. Well first off I am pleasantly surprised to be still alive, secondly how the heck was bugs town?!?!?! and finally WTF!!!! is this setup, 4 claimed mason, a dt and a vig. Dunno it is a lot to comprehend at once and I am way too tired to do some critical thinking now. I will look into the whole mason mess more closely tomorrow. Can't figure out what to make of ShiaoPi. If he were scum, then scum was under pressure yesterday to get votes on WBG and we can maybe get something out of that. If he's not scum...come on man. We need more analysis from you regardless, but also you've got a lot of people on you and you don't seem very worried. Pleasantly surprised to be alive...how is that your reaction to nearly being lynched? How is your reaction just "Ok, cool. I'm alive, this is good, wow some interesting stuff sure happened there, be back maybe before the end of night or perhaps just D3." I don't expect LVII(i think that's correct) end-of-game antics from you, but...it would be nice if we had more to work off of with you. You're posting very infrequently, often just to say that you'll be gone some more. That doesn't give us anything to work with, and it starts to look like you're just stalling and trying to keep from getting lynched for another day or so.
Once again some more vague comments on ShiaoPi after the WBG lynch, although this time apparently willing to lynch him. I can't help but feel like austinmcc has realized that his scumbuddy is most likely being lynched tomorrow, and that this post is the start for preparations to convincingly bus him and get some towncred. There's also a stark difference between austinmcc's lenient attitude towards ShiaoPi's scummy points and his way of finding the smallest things about WBG as scummy.
This is just an intro, and not really a convincing case without knowing ShiaoPi's alignment at all, but considering my scumread on ShiaoPi and the lack of other suspects, I'll have to drop my townread on austinmcc and read through his filter looking for possible Mafia motivations later.
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On December 06 2012 06:25 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2012 06:16 Xatalos wrote: It somehow looks like austinmcc is reluctant to talk about ShiaoPi. He rarely even mentions ShiaoPi, let alone asks him anything or interacts with him. When he does mention ShiaoPi, it's like this post (soft defending him without really committing to anything). Peculiar. I'm reluctant to talk about ShiaoPi and I rarely mention him or ask him anything. Yet you can pull out a couple quotes showing me doing that... Yes, the interaction is odd. I'm trying to figure out someone who just won't post, but who has done so as town and scum both before. Plus, he's someone I usually read based off of his reads, and without more info from him I find it difficult to read him myself.
I'm not saying you never mentioned him. It's just that you've done so very rarely and when you did, it was just some wishy-washy stuff without any result (except your apparent reluctance to lynch him until that latest post of yours, I guess). But this is all just speculation without ShiaoPi's flip... I definitely don't think you should be lynched unless ShiaoPi flips Mafia.
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On December 06 2012 08:09 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2012 08:06 Keirathi wrote:So austin, you had a confirmed scum check and didn't push a sandro lynch AT ALL? AND said this: On December 04 2012 05:05 austinmcc wrote:On December 04 2012 04:46 wherebugsgo wrote:w/e, RB or not it doesn't really matter. + Show Spoiler [dota] +What DOES matter is that I just went 12-2-27 as invoker and still lost. This game is like a process of elimination right now. We have established several players as town and basically we just need to kill based on the flips we saw last night. It's that simple, really. I find it odd that BH is not around and talking, but certainly he has time to do so. Also seeing as sandro agrees with me it probably means shiao is scum lolol (<3 sandro scumhunting abilities) (1) We all know that WBG raged at his team, went afk in fountain with Exort invoker, and stole all those kills/assists with Suntrike. (2) I'd like to hear more from you concering folks that aren't ShiaoPi or VE. I got not problem with you sitting back D1, but short of other claims it looks like you or sandro or DYH would be the likely mafia targets tonight. For instance, you wanted to pressure these folks: On December 02 2012 09:44 wherebugsgo wrote: I also think we should be pressuring these players:
MrZentor Zealos Dandel Ion Shiaopi
since they essentially got away with either abstaining or not doing anything all day 1. I haven't played with MrZ. I know he has a bit of a reputation. I've found him pretty clear and logical this whole game. Does that strike you as odd, or do you have a problem with that? Or does it make you think he's town? Do you still want to pressure him? Zealos hasn't posted since partway through D1. You brought him up a little in relation to VE, but what do you make of his actual posts. I didn't like them D1 when talking to LazerMonkey, BH found them townie, but you haven't said anything about the actual posts that he did make, which is all we have to go off of. You had a confirmed scum check but still assumed that sandro would be shot by scum? No deal. ##Vote: austinmcc Yup. I had a confirmed scum check. You KNOW someone is scum, 100%. But town is in an okay spot and doesn't NEED a scum lynch D2 to survive, and you think one of the top lynch candidates looks scum + is being defended by the guy you know is scum + the guy you know is scum is attacking the only other candidate. Do you think it's actually ridiculous to try and milk information out of scum in that situation? I want Sandro to take stances, to give thoughts (you'll note there isn't very much of that beyond the lynch post we all (including me) kind of liked). I'd like to be able to look back after lynching him D3, and maybe finding another scum N2, to be able to try and get some associative juju going.
I'm having some major difficulties buying this claim. If you actually found a confirmed scum N1, it sure looked nothing like it. You didn't pressure him, you looked like you thought he was town all day, you didn't breadcrumb, you didn't share your PM when you claimed... The list just goes on and on. And now you're just throwing your vote at him all of a sudden. Why? I'd take a wild guess that this is a desperate move since you know you're in a tight spot. All the more so if you and ShiaoPi are the remaining scum, which makes lots of sense. What's more, I don't see Sandroba as scummy (especially compared to ShiaoPi/yourself). This only leaves one option.
##Vote austinmcc
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On December 06 2012 08:22 debears wrote: Xata
I would like some insight
Why would austin claim and say he knows sandro is scum and he is watcher if scum?
He's watcher and sandro scum - he wants to make sure we lynch mafia He's scum and sandro scum - bus sandro for town cred he's scum and sandro town - get a mislynch and a 1 for 1 trade
point 3 is just dumb
The situation is desperate for Mafia right now. We have several confirmed townies and several high townreads among the players. It's going to be very difficult to get a mislynch through traditional means. This could well be just a (risky) move to trade one for one, which is a good trade in this situation. It buys time to kill 2 confirmed townies and turn this into a more manageable situation.
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On December 06 2012 08:23 debears wrote: So, the way I see it, if we lynch sandro, we get a scum no matter what
Are you honestly convinced by austin's claim? And are you okay with us losing 2 confirmed townies if we mislynch Sandroba? I don't know why you're so indifferent towards this lynch.
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On December 06 2012 08:31 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2012 08:23 debears wrote: So, the way I see it, if we lynch sandro, we get a scum no matter what Are you honestly convinced by austin's claim? And are you okay with us losing 2 confirmed townies if we mislynch Sandroba? I don't know why you're so indifferent towards this lynch.
Might I add: 2 confirmed townies + 1 non-confirmed town for 1 scum. That's a REALLY bad trade...!!!
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Especially if there are 4 scum, which might well be possible, considering the high amount of blues.
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On December 06 2012 08:34 austinmcc wrote:Xatalos I have a sneaking suspicion you might be scum too Yes, I could be mean old nasty scum, just trying to get you to lynch Sandroba in order to buy time for me to NK townies. MWAHAHAHAHA. Of course, you could be mean old nasty scum, just trying to get people to lynch me in order to buy time for you to NK townies. MWAHAHAHAHA. I don't know about anyone else, and I only called it peculiar at the time, but this post felt INCREDIBLY constructed and worked-on, compared to a lot of the thread. It yelled I'M A SCUM POST. I'M A SCUM POST. to me when I first read it. + Show Spoiler +On December 06 2012 06:16 Xatalos wrote:I'm starting to believe more and more that all of the claims so far have been real. There are some strong points to be made for all of them: 1) If DYH was SK, it would be an almost impossible stroke of luck that he claimed Vigi at such a time when it couldn't have realistically saved him anymore - although it managed to somehow save him anyway. And even if he still somehow was SK, it's a fact that there are still Mafia alive, so it's beyond stupid IMO to lynch a nearly confirmed Vigi while letting Mafia freely continue killing. 2) Keirathi was WBG's Mason partner, and unless this is some really cruel joke of a setup by the host, Keirathi must be town. Granted, it's "paranoia" Mafia, but lynching a confirmed Mason would be too stupid (realistically just doing Mafia's work for them). 3) BH/MrZentor would have been extremely stupid to fakeclaim just to ensure one mislynch at the cost of certainly losing the game eventually. Think about it: we now know that they are both town or both Mafia. If one of them would flip Mafia (lynch/SK kill/whatever), it would be GG right there and then. It's an extremely disadvantegeous position to put yourself into without any real gain. It's also most likely that one of them will be nightkilled before LYLO, which would confirm the other. It would make absolutely zero sense to lynch either of them. That means we have pretty much half the players as confirmed town, which is a great spot. I'm worried about what roles Mafia might have, though (or if they might have 4 players) considering the strong roles town has. But now it's basically just a process of elimination to figure out the remaining Mafia. Realistically DYH, Keirathi, BH and MrZentor are out of the picture. I'm also leaning town on debears, sandroba, austinmcc and Lazermonkey. That just leaves... ShiaoPi. What?? There's just no way there would be only 2 Mafia in a setup this stacked with blue roles. I feel like our only sensible option is to lynch ShiaoPi tomorrow, and in hindsight I feel it might have been better to lynch him today instead of WBG. Although WBG's flip at least (practically) confirmed Keirathi and the reality of this setup having tons of blues, so it's not too bad. I started suspecting this earlier and it's still on the back of my mind, although it ONLY makes sense if ShiaoPi is indeed Mafia. I mean austinmcc's weird behavior towards ShiaoPi. Let me show you some posts of his: Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 23:50 austinmcc wrote:On December 04 2012 22:51 Xatalos wrote: Heh. Well, I really hope so. I've also played with ShiaoPi before and I must say he was a lot more active and decisive back then. He even defended a (Mafia) player to the very end against every other player and was pretty clear on his reads. Now it feels like he's just giving vague reads and jumping on any realistic bandwagon. On December 04 2012 22:56 ShiaoPi wrote:On December 04 2012 22:51 Xatalos wrote:On December 04 2012 22:38 Keirathi wrote:On December 04 2012 22:34 Xatalos wrote: On the other hand, if ShiaoPi happened to flip town, it would mean some of my reads were seriously wrong. I think I'll have to reread several filters with the mindset that ShiaoPi would actually be town. I'm not seeing it right now, but it's a possibility after all. Don't worry, he's not going to flip town. I've played with town ShiaoPi and scum ShiaoPi. This ShiaoPi is the latter. Heh. Well, I really hope so. I've also played with ShiaoPi before and I must say he was a lot more active and decisive back then. He even defended a (Mafia) player to the very end against every other player and was pretty clear on his reads. Now it feels like he's just giving vague reads and jumping on any realistic bandwagon. That game was a long time ago and I was also in a different timezone, much more fitting for playing with EU/NA. Just saying you should not take that game as a basis for meta, go for more recent games such as Liquid City or LVI and LVII Xatalos, I would suggest looking at... LVII at least. I remember having the same feeling about ShiaoPi there that I did D1 here. He turned out to be town. It doesn't make him town here, but ... I've seen town ShiaoPi be relatively uninvested early compared to his play in that newbie game. It somehow looks like austinmcc is reluctant to talk about ShiaoPi. He rarely even mentions ShiaoPi, let alone asks him anything or interacts with him. When he does mention ShiaoPi, it's like this post (soft defending him without really committing to anything). In my mind it's way more scummy to make vague defenses for Mafia players than to directly defend them or to at least openly analyze them (granted, we don't know ShiaoPi's flip at this point). Show nested quote +On December 06 2012 04:28 austinmcc wrote:On December 06 2012 02:06 ShiaoPi wrote: Okay I must admit that I came back to the thread this late, because I fully expected to be lynched by all of your for stupid reasons. Well first off I am pleasantly surprised to be still alive, secondly how the heck was bugs town?!?!?! and finally WTF!!!! is this setup, 4 claimed mason, a dt and a vig. Dunno it is a lot to comprehend at once and I am way too tired to do some critical thinking now. I will look into the whole mason mess more closely tomorrow. Can't figure out what to make of ShiaoPi. If he were scum, then scum was under pressure yesterday to get votes on WBG and we can maybe get something out of that. If he's not scum...come on man. We need more analysis from you regardless, but also you've got a lot of people on you and you don't seem very worried. Pleasantly surprised to be alive...how is that your reaction to nearly being lynched? How is your reaction just "Ok, cool. I'm alive, this is good, wow some interesting stuff sure happened there, be back maybe before the end of night or perhaps just D3." I don't expect LVII(i think that's correct) end-of-game antics from you, but...it would be nice if we had more to work off of with you. You're posting very infrequently, often just to say that you'll be gone some more. That doesn't give us anything to work with, and it starts to look like you're just stalling and trying to keep from getting lynched for another day or so. Once again some more vague comments on ShiaoPi after the WBG lynch, although this time apparently willing to lynch him. I can't help but feel like austinmcc has realized that his scumbuddy is most likely being lynched tomorrow, and that this post is the start for preparations to convincingly bus him and get some towncred. There's also a stark difference between austinmcc's lenient attitude towards ShiaoPi's scummy points and his way of finding the smallest things about WBG as scummy. This is just an intro, and not really a convincing case without knowing ShiaoPi's alignment at all, but considering my scumread on ShiaoPi and the lack of other suspects, I'll have to drop my townread on austinmcc and read through his filter looking for possible Mafia motivations later.
Wut? Is that post supposed to be a joke or something? If so, I'd appreciate if you actually tried to convince the thread you're telling the truth. Like... Any breadcrumbs? Role PM? Anything?
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On December 06 2012 08:43 austinmcc wrote:Although you being scum makes the interactions between you/ShiaoPi and sandroba/ShiaoPi all the weirder. Are you BOTH bussing him? I guess then you bus him, use that post to say it implicates me, then get me lynched while trying to get a little cred for lynching ShiaoPi? Curious. All I know for sure right now, is that Sandroba is scum. If you think I'm so scummy, why is Sandroba townie? I notice in that post you say "you're leaning town" on Sandroba, but you don't give any further reasoning. See posts like these: D1 - Xatalos thinks Dandel Ion is scummy Show nested quote +On December 02 2012 01:14 Xatalos wrote:What I'm most concerned about are these players: VisceraEyes, DoYouHas, Dandel Ion. They all have been pretty passive background characters who are not lurking/trolling/playing bad, but not really doing anything either. I think there's a high chance for 1-2 of them being Mafia. [Stuff on VE] Dandel Ion hasn't put any real effort into his posts yet. He's just made some fluff one-liners and semi-useful "advice" like these: On November 30 2012 23:10 Dandel Ion wrote: I mean, I agree that Lazermonkey is being overeager with calling you out like that, but Xatalos already answered you. What information do you expect to gain by asking the same thing again? On December 01 2012 14:53 Dandel Ion wrote: It's a themed game. Please tell me you're not gonna start a setup speculation.
Just quickly skimmed the thread, do ya still want me to explain how, when and how well I read guides, or did you realize that it was a silly question in the first place yet? Dandel Ion doesn't just seem to care about Mafia hunting, even though he has posted a decent amount and with semi-useful content as well. I'd need to see some real improvement in his posting to make my suspicions fade. Sharing some reads or anything beneficial to finding Mafia would be a good start. Show nested quote +On December 02 2012 02:55 Xatalos wrote:On December 02 2012 01:25 ShiaoPi wrote: So who do you want to lynch Xata? Which of the three is scummiest to you? VisceraEyes at the moment. DoYouHas and Dandel Ion haven't made any actual effort to contribute, but they haven't done anything outright scummy either. I'm most suspicious of VE's opportunistic vote for debears and his lack of interest to do pretty much anything useful after that. Show nested quote +On December 02 2012 05:01 Xatalos wrote: If any of VE/DYH/Dandel can't be lynched tonight, at least it's a perfect opportunity to make some pressure. I'll change my target from VE if needed before the deadline. 3 posts, VE and Dandel Ion so scummy. Let's lynch em. Let's lynch em. N1/D2 - Dandel Ion now Sandroba, Sandroba suddenly townie for no real reason Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 19:54 Xatalos wrote: Of my other original suspects VE was obviously Mafia and DYH is now confirmed town, and Dandel Ion was replaced by sandroba (who feels townish so far) so I'm not willing to lynch other players at this moment. Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 22:16 Xatalos wrote:On December 03 2012 21:38 sandroba wrote: Hmm Bugs does have a point. Also if we assume BH is town ShiaoPi does fit the same theme as VE yesterday. A totally unimpactful player that just stood by the sidelines, because their team was never in danger. I'm willing to roll with that because I'm getting cold feet about BH flipping scum (VE mentioning he is okay with lynching him/zealos should at least make us consider looking in another direction) and Shiao isn't doing shit so it's less risk involved. ##Vote: ShiaoPi Hmm. Alright, I can agree with lynching ShiaoPi today. It also helps that I have a town read on both you and WBG. And ShiaoPi hasn't been lurking quite as heavily as Zealos, but he hasn't done anything either. ##Unvote ##Vote ShiaoPiAlthough I'm wondering where Zealos has disappeared. And Lazermonkey. What we need now is more posts by several players who haven't done anything for a while (or even all game). Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 04:36 Xatalos wrote: I'm willing to give Dandel/Sandroba a pass though, since Dandel didn't interact with pretty much anyone and Sandroba has been very helpful with his posts. Show nested quote +On December 06 2012 06:16 Xatalos wrote: Realistically DYH, Keirathi, BH and MrZentor are out of the picture. I'm also leaning town on debears, sandroba, austinmcc and Lazermonkey.
Would you care to explain why Sandroba is townie? Would you care to explain why DI was one of your top scum suspects D1, but D2 it's "Dandel didn't interact with pretty much anyone and Sandroba has been helpful with his posts" so they get a pass? It's curious to me that one of your top 3 scumreads became a guy you think is townie but you never actually said why.
The main suspicious point about Dandel Ion was his clear lack of care for achieving anything. He posted little and didn't interact, scumhunt, analyze... It could have been just disinterested town as well though. But Sandroba has been transparent and his posts have been filled with real content. He's not my top town read, given his relative inactivity, but I'm not liking him as scum.
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On December 06 2012 08:46 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2012 08:38 Xatalos wrote:On December 06 2012 08:34 austinmcc wrote:Xatalos I have a sneaking suspicion you might be scum too Yes, I could be mean old nasty scum, just trying to get you to lynch Sandroba in order to buy time for me to NK townies. MWAHAHAHAHA. Of course, you could be mean old nasty scum, just trying to get people to lynch me in order to buy time for you to NK townies. MWAHAHAHAHA. I don't know about anyone else, and I only called it peculiar at the time, but this post felt INCREDIBLY constructed and worked-on, compared to a lot of the thread. It yelled I'M A SCUM POST. I'M A SCUM POST. to me when I first read it. + Show Spoiler +On December 06 2012 06:16 Xatalos wrote:I'm starting to believe more and more that all of the claims so far have been real. There are some strong points to be made for all of them: 1) If DYH was SK, it would be an almost impossible stroke of luck that he claimed Vigi at such a time when it couldn't have realistically saved him anymore - although it managed to somehow save him anyway. And even if he still somehow was SK, it's a fact that there are still Mafia alive, so it's beyond stupid IMO to lynch a nearly confirmed Vigi while letting Mafia freely continue killing. 2) Keirathi was WBG's Mason partner, and unless this is some really cruel joke of a setup by the host, Keirathi must be town. Granted, it's "paranoia" Mafia, but lynching a confirmed Mason would be too stupid (realistically just doing Mafia's work for them). 3) BH/MrZentor would have been extremely stupid to fakeclaim just to ensure one mislynch at the cost of certainly losing the game eventually. Think about it: we now know that they are both town or both Mafia. If one of them would flip Mafia (lynch/SK kill/whatever), it would be GG right there and then. It's an extremely disadvantegeous position to put yourself into without any real gain. It's also most likely that one of them will be nightkilled before LYLO, which would confirm the other. It would make absolutely zero sense to lynch either of them. That means we have pretty much half the players as confirmed town, which is a great spot. I'm worried about what roles Mafia might have, though (or if they might have 4 players) considering the strong roles town has. But now it's basically just a process of elimination to figure out the remaining Mafia. Realistically DYH, Keirathi, BH and MrZentor are out of the picture. I'm also leaning town on debears, sandroba, austinmcc and Lazermonkey. That just leaves... ShiaoPi. What?? There's just no way there would be only 2 Mafia in a setup this stacked with blue roles. I feel like our only sensible option is to lynch ShiaoPi tomorrow, and in hindsight I feel it might have been better to lynch him today instead of WBG. Although WBG's flip at least (practically) confirmed Keirathi and the reality of this setup having tons of blues, so it's not too bad. I started suspecting this earlier and it's still on the back of my mind, although it ONLY makes sense if ShiaoPi is indeed Mafia. I mean austinmcc's weird behavior towards ShiaoPi. Let me show you some posts of his: Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 23:50 austinmcc wrote:On December 04 2012 22:51 Xatalos wrote: Heh. Well, I really hope so. I've also played with ShiaoPi before and I must say he was a lot more active and decisive back then. He even defended a (Mafia) player to the very end against every other player and was pretty clear on his reads. Now it feels like he's just giving vague reads and jumping on any realistic bandwagon. On December 04 2012 22:56 ShiaoPi wrote:On December 04 2012 22:51 Xatalos wrote:On December 04 2012 22:38 Keirathi wrote:On December 04 2012 22:34 Xatalos wrote: On the other hand, if ShiaoPi happened to flip town, it would mean some of my reads were seriously wrong. I think I'll have to reread several filters with the mindset that ShiaoPi would actually be town. I'm not seeing it right now, but it's a possibility after all. Don't worry, he's not going to flip town. I've played with town ShiaoPi and scum ShiaoPi. This ShiaoPi is the latter. Heh. Well, I really hope so. I've also played with ShiaoPi before and I must say he was a lot more active and decisive back then. He even defended a (Mafia) player to the very end against every other player and was pretty clear on his reads. Now it feels like he's just giving vague reads and jumping on any realistic bandwagon. That game was a long time ago and I was also in a different timezone, much more fitting for playing with EU/NA. Just saying you should not take that game as a basis for meta, go for more recent games such as Liquid City or LVI and LVII Xatalos, I would suggest looking at... LVII at least. I remember having the same feeling about ShiaoPi there that I did D1 here. He turned out to be town. It doesn't make him town here, but ... I've seen town ShiaoPi be relatively uninvested early compared to his play in that newbie game. It somehow looks like austinmcc is reluctant to talk about ShiaoPi. He rarely even mentions ShiaoPi, let alone asks him anything or interacts with him. When he does mention ShiaoPi, it's like this post (soft defending him without really committing to anything). In my mind it's way more scummy to make vague defenses for Mafia players than to directly defend them or to at least openly analyze them (granted, we don't know ShiaoPi's flip at this point). Show nested quote +On December 06 2012 04:28 austinmcc wrote:On December 06 2012 02:06 ShiaoPi wrote: Okay I must admit that I came back to the thread this late, because I fully expected to be lynched by all of your for stupid reasons. Well first off I am pleasantly surprised to be still alive, secondly how the heck was bugs town?!?!?! and finally WTF!!!! is this setup, 4 claimed mason, a dt and a vig. Dunno it is a lot to comprehend at once and I am way too tired to do some critical thinking now. I will look into the whole mason mess more closely tomorrow. Can't figure out what to make of ShiaoPi. If he were scum, then scum was under pressure yesterday to get votes on WBG and we can maybe get something out of that. If he's not scum...come on man. We need more analysis from you regardless, but also you've got a lot of people on you and you don't seem very worried. Pleasantly surprised to be alive...how is that your reaction to nearly being lynched? How is your reaction just "Ok, cool. I'm alive, this is good, wow some interesting stuff sure happened there, be back maybe before the end of night or perhaps just D3." I don't expect LVII(i think that's correct) end-of-game antics from you, but...it would be nice if we had more to work off of with you. You're posting very infrequently, often just to say that you'll be gone some more. That doesn't give us anything to work with, and it starts to look like you're just stalling and trying to keep from getting lynched for another day or so. Once again some more vague comments on ShiaoPi after the WBG lynch, although this time apparently willing to lynch him. I can't help but feel like austinmcc has realized that his scumbuddy is most likely being lynched tomorrow, and that this post is the start for preparations to convincingly bus him and get some towncred. There's also a stark difference between austinmcc's lenient attitude towards ShiaoPi's scummy points and his way of finding the smallest things about WBG as scummy. This is just an intro, and not really a convincing case without knowing ShiaoPi's alignment at all, but considering my scumread on ShiaoPi and the lack of other suspects, I'll have to drop my townread on austinmcc and read through his filter looking for possible Mafia motivations later. Wut? Is that post supposed to be a joke or something? If so, I'd appreciate if you actually tried to convince the thread you're telling the truth. Like... Any breadcrumbs? Role PM? Anything? Breadcrumbs can be faked np. Same as with a breadcrumb, if you believe my claim, you may find that it explains some of my ShiaoPi v. WBG actions, and explains me trying to milk info from Sandroba. If you don't, you'll think I'm making it up, whether breadcrumb or explanation. The "anything" that I can PROVE my role with would be nothing, unless we have a rolecop. However, Sandro will flip red whenever you lynch him. And I'll flip watcher if I die.
You're certainly not making it easy to believe you. No breadcrumbs, no PM, no attempts to pressure the confirmed Mafia... All you have is that you tried to "trick" your 100% Mafia target while pushing hard for someone else you thought was "looking scummy". Is that really plausible? I have a hard time seeing that. Surely we'll have to lynch either you or Sandroba today, and if you somehow flipped town it would mean lynching Sandroba tomorrow, but you're the far safer bet to go for now.
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On December 06 2012 09:30 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2012 09:14 Xatalos wrote:On December 06 2012 08:43 austinmcc wrote:Although you being scum makes the interactions between you/ShiaoPi and sandroba/ShiaoPi all the weirder. Are you BOTH bussing him? I guess then you bus him, use that post to say it implicates me, then get me lynched while trying to get a little cred for lynching ShiaoPi? Curious. All I know for sure right now, is that Sandroba is scum. If you think I'm so scummy, why is Sandroba townie? I notice in that post you say "you're leaning town" on Sandroba, but you don't give any further reasoning. See posts like these: D1 - Xatalos thinks Dandel Ion is scummy On December 02 2012 01:14 Xatalos wrote:What I'm most concerned about are these players: VisceraEyes, DoYouHas, Dandel Ion. They all have been pretty passive background characters who are not lurking/trolling/playing bad, but not really doing anything either. I think there's a high chance for 1-2 of them being Mafia. [Stuff on VE] Dandel Ion hasn't put any real effort into his posts yet. He's just made some fluff one-liners and semi-useful "advice" like these: On November 30 2012 23:10 Dandel Ion wrote: I mean, I agree that Lazermonkey is being overeager with calling you out like that, but Xatalos already answered you. What information do you expect to gain by asking the same thing again? On December 01 2012 14:53 Dandel Ion wrote: It's a themed game. Please tell me you're not gonna start a setup speculation.
Just quickly skimmed the thread, do ya still want me to explain how, when and how well I read guides, or did you realize that it was a silly question in the first place yet? Dandel Ion doesn't just seem to care about Mafia hunting, even though he has posted a decent amount and with semi-useful content as well. I'd need to see some real improvement in his posting to make my suspicions fade. Sharing some reads or anything beneficial to finding Mafia would be a good start. On December 02 2012 02:55 Xatalos wrote:On December 02 2012 01:25 ShiaoPi wrote: So who do you want to lynch Xata? Which of the three is scummiest to you? VisceraEyes at the moment. DoYouHas and Dandel Ion haven't made any actual effort to contribute, but they haven't done anything outright scummy either. I'm most suspicious of VE's opportunistic vote for debears and his lack of interest to do pretty much anything useful after that. On December 02 2012 05:01 Xatalos wrote: If any of VE/DYH/Dandel can't be lynched tonight, at least it's a perfect opportunity to make some pressure. I'll change my target from VE if needed before the deadline. 3 posts, VE and Dandel Ion so scummy. Let's lynch em. Let's lynch em. N1/D2 - Dandel Ion now Sandroba, Sandroba suddenly townie for no real reason On December 03 2012 19:54 Xatalos wrote: Of my other original suspects VE was obviously Mafia and DYH is now confirmed town, and Dandel Ion was replaced by sandroba (who feels townish so far) so I'm not willing to lynch other players at this moment. On December 03 2012 22:16 Xatalos wrote:On December 03 2012 21:38 sandroba wrote: Hmm Bugs does have a point. Also if we assume BH is town ShiaoPi does fit the same theme as VE yesterday. A totally unimpactful player that just stood by the sidelines, because their team was never in danger. I'm willing to roll with that because I'm getting cold feet about BH flipping scum (VE mentioning he is okay with lynching him/zealos should at least make us consider looking in another direction) and Shiao isn't doing shit so it's less risk involved. ##Vote: ShiaoPi Hmm. Alright, I can agree with lynching ShiaoPi today. It also helps that I have a town read on both you and WBG. And ShiaoPi hasn't been lurking quite as heavily as Zealos, but he hasn't done anything either. ##Unvote ##Vote ShiaoPiAlthough I'm wondering where Zealos has disappeared. And Lazermonkey. What we need now is more posts by several players who haven't done anything for a while (or even all game). On December 04 2012 04:36 Xatalos wrote: I'm willing to give Dandel/Sandroba a pass though, since Dandel didn't interact with pretty much anyone and Sandroba has been very helpful with his posts. On December 06 2012 06:16 Xatalos wrote: Realistically DYH, Keirathi, BH and MrZentor are out of the picture. I'm also leaning town on debears, sandroba, austinmcc and Lazermonkey.
Would you care to explain why Sandroba is townie? Would you care to explain why DI was one of your top scum suspects D1, but D2 it's "Dandel didn't interact with pretty much anyone and Sandroba has been helpful with his posts" so they get a pass? It's curious to me that one of your top 3 scumreads became a guy you think is townie but you never actually said why. The main suspicious point about Dandel Ion was his clear lack of care for achieving anything. He posted little and didn't interact, scumhunt, analyze... It could have been just disinterested town as well though. But Sandroba has been transparent and his posts have been filled with real content. He's not my top town read, given his relative inactivity, but I'm not liking him as scum. Posts. Specifics. You say Sandroba has been transparent. I disagree (not just because he didn't tell us he was scum). You say his posts have been filled with content. Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 03:43 sandroba wrote: I'm gonna make a post with my comments right before the deadline. Replaces in, promises an end of night post. Fine, some people like not posting during night, but Sandroba JUST JOINED and says nothing but that there will be an end of night post. Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 07:40 sandroba wrote: I have to go out quickly so I'ma post my thoughts early: Sandroba's Town List for dummies (TM): WBG - marvelosity = both too emo ragers for it to be fake. I can't see the genuine asshole behavior being faked here and there is no scum motivation for it. I would seriously like to lynch marv for being an assface jerk, but unfortunately I can't convince myself he is scum. Xatalos - LOL this guy is so townie I don't understand how you baddies manage to bandwagon him day 1. 'Nuff said. DYH - I really thought this guy was scum for his retard case on xatalos before I read the last 30 pages. However that last minute claim looks really good so I'm putting him as town. Hopefully he can get confirmed by shooting into scummers tonight. Assuming scum have 1 rb (can't really imagine them having 2) either him or marv should get their actions through.
Scummers : Zealos, BlazingHand are scum. I don't think I need to explain why for BH. Read Zealos oportunistic jump on xata wagon. That post has scum written all over it.
People that I'm unsure but leaning scum: VE - who you might ask? Yes this dude is playing in this game. I bet you didn't know either. Kei/Ace - Meh ace is a hard one for me to figure out. I thought he was scum when I was obsing because of his "Oh this is interesting" comment, but I'm liking kei a bit more. This BH case seems very convinient though. Here is his giant night post. 4 townreads including "so townie I don't understand how you baddies blah blah blah" which doesn't actually say anything. 2 scumreads, one he "doesn't think he needs to explain" and one post from Zealos that he doesn't like because "it has scum written all over it" LOOK AT THAT NIGHT POST. He replaces in, waits all night, ends night with that post. There are his reads. Half of them aren't even reads, they're just him saying he thinks someone is town or scum but without an actual reason. This from someone who replaced in, for someone who was inactive. Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 21:38 sandroba wrote: Hmm Bugs does have a point. Also if we assume BH is town ShiaoPi does fit the same theme as VE yesterday. A totally unimpactful player that just stood by the sidelines, because their team was never in danger. I'm willing to roll with that because I'm getting cold feet about BH flipping scum (VE mentioning he is okay with lynching him/zealos should at least make us consider looking in another direction) and Shiao isn't doing shit so it's less risk involved. ##Vote: ShiaoPi ShiaoPi stood by sidelines, isn't doing shit. That's worth of a vote. WBG picks up some votes Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 12:00 sandroba wrote: Omg I thought this would blow over, but I see it's getting momentum. I'll post my thoughts when I wake up. 11 hours later he finally defends WBG. On what grounds? "WBG's behavior makes no sense as mafia." No posts, no quoting, just "his behavior doesn't make sense." his "tone and emotional content" were genuine. No specifics. It's not quite a nothingpost, but it says what Sandroba thinks without the WHY he thinks that. N2 we get like 5 lines responding to DYH's rabbit hole.
So Xatalos, Where has Sandroba been transparent? Which posts were filled with real content to you? Point them out. Let's discuss this. I know he's scum, but I'm curious about your defense of him. Because right now, you've never mentioned a single specific post, and I 100% disagree that Sandroba has been transparent. Moreover, I 1000% disagree with you that Sandroba was "transparent" at the time you made mention of him being so. I see a few posts with some reasoning and some logic, but most of them are after you already starting leaning townie on him.
Really, looking at Sandroba's filter, it just reads more and more town. Every post of his (except a small number of totally unimportant one-liners and such) has:
A) tried to figure out players and details about their play, such as:
On December 03 2012 05:36 sandroba wrote: Normally if there is no mention of sanity you assume sane, otherwise it's too much trolling by the host. If you don't know your sanity, you are a least informed that you don't. Did you ask and did the host answer you? I don't need to know what the answer was, yet.
On December 03 2012 21:47 sandroba wrote: @BH that comment on marv interactions seeming fake is annoying me, why would you think that?
B) put pressure on players he's found suspicious, such as:
On December 03 2012 06:51 sandroba wrote: @VE anything would like to add? I must say you didn't make an impact at all in the game and I only noticed you were playing after rereading the thread. What's your stance on DYH/BH after this quick switch and the late claim?
On December 03 2012 07:13 sandroba wrote: @BH didn't you pull very similar shit on bureaucracy day 1 as scum? Yes you did.
On December 04 2012 02:47 sandroba wrote: @kei Let's assume lynching BH is out of the question today. Who would you want to lynch instead?
C) shared his reads very transparently without ANY pressure to do so, such as:
On December 03 2012 07:40 sandroba wrote: I have to go out quickly so I'ma post my thoughts early: Sandroba's Town List for dummies (TM): WBG - marvelosity = both too emo ragers for it to be fake. I can't see the genuine asshole behavior being faked here and there is no scum motivation for it. I would seriously like to lynch marv for being an assface jerk, but unfortunately I can't convince myself he is scum. Xatalos - LOL this guy is so townie I don't understand how you baddies manage to bandwagon him day 1. 'Nuff said. DYH - I really thought this guy was scum for his retard case on xatalos before I read the last 30 pages. However that last minute claim looks really good so I'm putting him as town. Hopefully he can get confirmed by shooting into scummers tonight. Assuming scum have 1 rb (can't really imagine them having 2) either him or marv should get their actions through.
Scummers : Zealos, BlazingHand are scum. I don't think I need to explain why for BH. Read Zealos oportunistic jump on xata wagon. That post has scum written all over it.
People that I'm unsure but leaning scum: VE - who you might ask? Yes this dude is playing in this game. I bet you didn't know either. Kei/Ace - Meh ace is a hard one for me to figure out. I thought he was scum when I was obsing because of his "Oh this is interesting" comment, but I'm liking kei a bit more. This BH case seems very convinient though.
On December 03 2012 21:38 sandroba wrote: Hmm Bugs does have a point. Also if we assume BH is town ShiaoPi does fit the same theme as VE yesterday. A totally unimpactful player that just stood by the sidelines, because their team was never in danger. I'm willing to roll with that because I'm getting cold feet about BH flipping scum (VE mentioning he is okay with lynching him/zealos should at least make us consider looking in another direction) and Shiao isn't doing shit so it's less risk involved. ##Vote: ShiaoPi
On December 03 2012 22:24 sandroba wrote: Well the thing is that VE didn't know he was gonna die. Do you think he would agree preemptively to lynch zealos in that case? I think our best bet is to ignore those 2 for now at least.
On December 04 2012 23:08 sandroba wrote: LISTEN PEOPLE! I've reread WBG's filter a couple times by now. Consider please that yesterday lynch was between 2 townies and scum shot marvelosity. WBG's behavior makes no sense as mafia. Even if you can twist it somehow like you guys have been trying to do, the tone and emotional content of his posts are very genuine. I've played with mafia bugs before, and while he is hard to read, he is either non confrontational or trollish, he doesn't pick fights with people for absolutely no gain like he has been doing this game. Now let's look at ShiaoPi. This dude is desperetely trying to survive. Compare his posts d1, when he wasn't in any danger, to his posts today. He is trying really hard to justify any bandwagons he can hop on to save his own ass. Also look at how this retard wagon on bugs gained traction out of the blue. Even more reason to suspect we were right about ShiaoPi. Use your heads please.
On December 04 2012 23:51 sandroba wrote: @shiaopi I'm voting for you because i think you are scum. Doesn't matter if you say "but, but, but, i didn't do anything, it's ve's fault" or w/e. To find scum you need to define a pattern in which you believe they will behave given a specific situation. Unfortunatelly for you, you fit the pattern I arbitrarily defined that scum would behave day 1 in a 2 townie wagon and then day 2 after being acused. Ve's comment is just icing on the cake and serves to strenghen my belief and make everything fit toghether even more nicely.
On December 04 2012 23:57 sandroba wrote: Being detrimental to the town =/= wbg is scum. His emotional response to marv makes sense given the lack of knowledge of marv's alignment because it was the exact same response I had when reading through those pages.
On December 05 2012 22:19 sandroba wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2012 09:06 DoYouHas wrote:Follow me down the rabbit hole if you will MrZ and BH. Exempting yourselves, myself, and Keirathi from scum possibilities the remainders are: Xatalos, Sandroba, debears, austinmcc, Lazermonkey, Shiaopi Sandroba and debears seem townie to me, you both seem to agree, let's remove them from the list: Xatalos, austinmcc, Lazermonkey, and Shiaopi. If we indeed have 2 pairs of town aligned masons, then it only makes sense that there are at least 4 mafia in the game. That means there should be 3 mafia in the 4 names I just presented. But if that is true, that means that at least one or both of Xatalos/Lazer is scum. And if one or both of them is scum, it drastically reduces the chances that Shiaopi is scum with them. If you don't understand why, then do some time rereading. Take that name off the list. Xatalos, austinmcc, Lazermonkey There is your scumteam. There are two things that could throw my thinking out the window. 1. I could be wrong about sandroba and debears. I don't think I am, but it is possible. 2. You (Mrz & BH) could be mafia in spite of everything. I would much rather confirm my thinking by lynching Lazer, but if you actively oppose me in this, it had better be because you don't agree that keir/sandro/debears are town. Otherwise I am forced to assume that you are scum. Xatalos is most likely not scum. The random Shiaopi isn't scum makes no sense. If you look carefully of how the day went the most likely scenario is that he is indeed scum, given the counter wagons and the hopping out of his wagon as soon as it became clear that there was a possibility of him not being lynched. I don't agree that debears looks townie. I would put him toghether with lazer and austin as the possible remaining scum (besisdes shiaopi). These mason claims I'm going to look into some more. 4 masons does seem like a lot, but I never before have seen scum claiming it.
The point is, you can clearly see Sandroba's opinions behind his posts and his posts are all aimed at 1) improving his reads on players 2) pushing the lynch on the most likely scum C) hard defending players he finds townish. Everything just screams "TOWN!". I seriously can't find a single Mafia motivation inside Sandroba's filter. You try to dismiss his reads as "not saying anything" while they in fact are decisive and logical. Sometimes he says stuff like "I can't be bothered to explain it", but that's just being lazy (a null tell), not being vague or evasive (a scum tell). And mostly he DOES have a real reason for his reads. You're grossly exaggerating by saying that he's not providing reasons for his reads. A reason doesn't always have to be a huge commentary on someone's filter, it's just as relevant to analyze someone's overall playstyle, activity, emotions, interactions etc. Often it can be better for finding Mafia motivations than "scumslips" inside walls of text.
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On December 06 2012 10:00 debears wrote: Ok here are my thoughts on the situation
1. Austin lying and we lynch him: We get a scum Sandro most likely confirmed town
2. Austin telling the truth and we lynch him: We lost our watcher Sandro scum confirmed
3. Austin lying and we lynch Sandro: Austin confirmed scum We lose an inactive townie
4. Austin telling the truth and we lynch Sandro: We get a scum Austin most likely watcher
Results in which we kill scum first attempt: 1,4 Results in which we get confirmed scum as other after killing a townie: 2,3
So I think the question is which out of 2 or 3 is more favorable for town? The answer is 3
Austin has been active, he has made reads. If he is the watcher it gives the mafia someone to kill as priority Sandro has not been active. He has not made much in terms of read. Scum wouldn't be inclined to nk him quickly
Based on the above, from a purely neutral view, lynching sandro is the better choice based purely on how much we lose if austin is telling the truth and we lynch him first. I will ponder the claim and how austin acted n2.
But I would like to share this. As of now I would rather lynch Sandro first
That's just a stupid way to look at it. If we mislynch, we trade 2 confirmed townies and 1 other townie for 1 Mafia. If we lynch correctly, we trade 1 confirmed townie for 1 Mafia. It's pointless to consider this from a "neutral point of view" and calculate the disadvantages of lynching austinmcc in case he actually is a blue compared to lynching Sandroba in case he is town. There's always a chance that we will fail with the lynch, but it shouldn't be the starting point. It's unquestionably multiple times more beneficial to lynch correctly (saving 2 townies in the process), so we should only focus on that for today. Answer this: do you honestly think austinmcc is more townish of these two?
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On December 06 2012 10:31 austinmcc wrote: I don't want to quote the giant post there, but I think you're making things up. One of the two things Sandroba "tried to figure out" was Marv's sanity, something that scum would want to know. If he's not sane, he's not necessarily a N1 kill.
The "pressure" you quote is 3 small questions to people. Do you find that he followed up on his questions? Do his reads look like he actually cared about his questions and the way that other players answered? If "he asked these three questions" is something you find townie...there's a problem.
In fact, you'll notice that you said Sandroba felt "townish" after REPLACING ONE OF YOUR TOP 3 SCUMREADS at 19:54 on December 3. Out of the posts you listed of Sandroba's, the following were prior to that:
His asking about marv's sanity His 3 dinky questions His reads at the end of the night, which are half "it's so obvious I don't need to explain it"
That's what you had to work with when you first said Sandroba seemed townie. Sandroba, the guy who replaced one of your top 3 scumreads from D1.
Dandel Ion wasn't a strong scumread for me to at any point, maybe slightly leaning scum. He was just someone I wasn't feeling comfortable about since he didn't really seem to care. But Sandroba was the opposite, instantly asking relevant questions and sharing his opinions about any topic. Granted, I'd like to see some more evidence for his opinions from now on, but the point is that he clearly cares about what's happening in the thread and tries to actively direct the flow of the thread. IMO his posting style is a bit like MrZentor's, except more townish (with more reasoning and less sheeping). If you find Sandroba scummy, you should find MrZentor scummy as well (granted, he's clearly a Mason, but I mean on principle).
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