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On November 29 2012 13:26 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2012 13:04 goodkarma wrote:
Might as well roleclaim now:
My name is Fiona. I have a vigilante-type role.
Night 3, I was responsible for 150 points of damage on CaveJohnson.
So here's what I propose:
1) You see if anyone comes forward to counterclaim the damage.
2) If someone does one of us is scum. Lynch accordingly.
3) If not, I am incredibly tired of having to deal with ignorant people... I'm going to role claim now, so that later as confirmed town I'm entitled to draw giant pictures of dinosaurs, and run around failing parties like I've been lobotomized.
See you guys later after I've calmed down. Why are you so mad at Dieno? He made a mistake, it happens. You were sent on a mission with 2 semi-confirmed townies, and being in a better position then all of us due to knowing your alignment, you should have been able to make a definitive call as to whether Acro positively or negatively affects missions. I feel like the right response would have been to come in, be adamant that you are town and try and dump this mess on Acro. Yet your first post after the mission result is: Show nested quote +On November 29 2012 09:14 goodkarma wrote:
So now what?
Toad very well could be lying. He could have 1 HP or 700 HP... There's no way of knowing.
I say lynch him anyway.
##Vote: Toad "So now what?" does not feel like the right reaction to someone that feels like they've just been 'framed' by the mission failure.
I did affirmatively say it was Acro. I've said it several times. Why would it be my first reaction to "dump it on him?" Acro claimed 3rd party. He's clearly not town. How in any way shape or form did it suddenly become obviously my fault?
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Responses in bold.:
On November 29 2012 13:40 Promethelax wrote:
I actually quoted that from the conclusion of my first case. Seriously: reading=good.
You did not give reasons for your flip flopping on Sandroba and Syllo that were viable at all.
Define "viable." Town and scum both change their reads all the time, and nowhere in the first part do I see anything indicating clear scum motivation.
You tried to direct town kp AWAY from scum. That is not a town action.
Are you discussing toad? If so, there are several others here that thought that shooting Toad was retarded. And look at where it got us? We wasted several town actions for nothing... I hate to say I told you so, but... I told you so.
I don't believe you. You aren't kush. You don't get to do this kind of thing.
Well, congrats. You're going to be short one town...
You would have a point if your list wasn't 11 players long and all null reads.
I have a point because everyone not on that list (with the exception of Acro) I have pegged as town. That's narrowing the field substantially.
yes, that point is weaker than the others but it is an ancillary part of the case. None the less you did seem to have fore-knowledge of scum KP. It's not a weak part, it's a non-existent part to your case...
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On November 29 2012 13:45 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2012 13:41 goodkarma wrote:On November 29 2012 13:26 Adam4167 wrote:On November 29 2012 13:04 goodkarma wrote:
Might as well roleclaim now:
My name is Fiona. I have a vigilante-type role.
Night 3, I was responsible for 150 points of damage on CaveJohnson.
So here's what I propose:
1) You see if anyone comes forward to counterclaim the damage.
2) If someone does one of us is scum. Lynch accordingly.
3) If not, I am incredibly tired of having to deal with ignorant people... I'm going to role claim now, so that later as confirmed town I'm entitled to draw giant pictures of dinosaurs, and run around failing parties like I've been lobotomized.
See you guys later after I've calmed down. Why are you so mad at Dieno? He made a mistake, it happens. You were sent on a mission with 2 semi-confirmed townies, and being in a better position then all of us due to knowing your alignment, you should have been able to make a definitive call as to whether Acro positively or negatively affects missions. I feel like the right response would have been to come in, be adamant that you are town and try and dump this mess on Acro. Yet your first post after the mission result is: On November 29 2012 09:14 goodkarma wrote:
So now what?
Toad very well could be lying. He could have 1 HP or 700 HP... There's no way of knowing.
I say lynch him anyway.
##Vote: Toad "So now what?" does not feel like the right reaction to someone that feels like they've just been 'framed' by the mission failure. I did affirmatively say it was Acro. I've said it several times. Why would it be my first reaction to "dump it on him?" Acro claimed 3rd party. He's clearly not town. How in any way shape or form did it suddenly become obviously my fault? It didn't. This is a strawman you have been attacking since I made my case. Note how I didn't mention that at all in my case? Good. Your reaction to being on that failed party though was not town motivated. Adam did a rather decent job of explaining it.
If I'm this "clear scum" you seem to believe I am then answer me this:
Where did those 150 points damage come from?
I have yet to hear any kind of counterclaims...
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On November 29 2012 13:55 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2012 13:53 goodkarma wrote:On November 29 2012 13:45 Promethelax wrote:On November 29 2012 13:41 goodkarma wrote:On November 29 2012 13:26 Adam4167 wrote:On November 29 2012 13:04 goodkarma wrote:
Might as well roleclaim now:
My name is Fiona. I have a vigilante-type role.
Night 3, I was responsible for 150 points of damage on CaveJohnson.
So here's what I propose:
1) You see if anyone comes forward to counterclaim the damage.
2) If someone does one of us is scum. Lynch accordingly.
3) If not, I am incredibly tired of having to deal with ignorant people... I'm going to role claim now, so that later as confirmed town I'm entitled to draw giant pictures of dinosaurs, and run around failing parties like I've been lobotomized.
See you guys later after I've calmed down. Why are you so mad at Dieno? He made a mistake, it happens. You were sent on a mission with 2 semi-confirmed townies, and being in a better position then all of us due to knowing your alignment, you should have been able to make a definitive call as to whether Acro positively or negatively affects missions. I feel like the right response would have been to come in, be adamant that you are town and try and dump this mess on Acro. Yet your first post after the mission result is: On November 29 2012 09:14 goodkarma wrote:
So now what?
Toad very well could be lying. He could have 1 HP or 700 HP... There's no way of knowing.
I say lynch him anyway.
##Vote: Toad "So now what?" does not feel like the right reaction to someone that feels like they've just been 'framed' by the mission failure. I did affirmatively say it was Acro. I've said it several times. Why would it be my first reaction to "dump it on him?" Acro claimed 3rd party. He's clearly not town. How in any way shape or form did it suddenly become obviously my fault? It didn't. This is a strawman you have been attacking since I made my case. Note how I didn't mention that at all in my case? Good. Your reaction to being on that failed party though was not town motivated. Adam did a rather decent job of explaining it. If I'm this "clear scum" you seem to believe I am then answer me this: Where did those 150 points damage come from? I have yet to hear any kind of counterclaims... Could be what you actually did. If CJ is town and has some kickass abilities (which he certainly claimed) hitting him as scum isn't that bad a move. It also leaves you free to claim that shot to 'prove' your townieness since there is a plausible explanation for town to do what you did since Draz is notoriously hard to read. Scum have kp, scum also probably have damaging abilities. Could have been either of those.
I've vigi'd before, and I have absolutely no problem doing it again. My ability is a bit weak, and it requires applying stacks before I can inflict damage, but it has infinite uses. I've already told mason QT what I did last night. I can vigi said person tomorrow.
And even you must realize how dumb it would be for scum to shoot CJ, who is infamous for making up "kickass abilities" on the spot. He's a guy that's hard to read, and always anti-town. Scum would have no motivation to get rid of him.
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On November 29 2012 14:03 Promethelax wrote:
Post your mason logs.
If scum had a 3p read on CJ (which I did) it would make perfect sense.
Post my mason logs? I'll leave that up to syllo or risk, as you could blatantly claim everything I say is made up.
I've told them of my ability as well as how I've used it. I'll let them clear me.
As for 3p read? Exactly how many 3p's you think there are? Do you not believe Marv when he says Kita is 3p? I do... And then there's acro who claimed 3p... But whatever, I'm done arguing here.
Let's let other people weigh in here. I'm tired of arguing against someone who clearly already has me wrongly condemned as scum in his head...
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Also, what good would publicly claiming my target be? That's a great way of getting him bussed or me indirectly RB'ed by an ability similar to your own.
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On November 29 2012 14:03 Promethelax wrote:
Post your mason logs.
If scum had a 3p read on CJ (which I did) it would make perfect sense.
Here's the part where I claim the damage I will be doing to CJ:
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goodkarma
11-26-2012
01:51 AM ET (US)
I'm pretty confident at this point that all of town is blue.
I mean, look at how many role claims we've already had in thread...
I'm not worried about drawing scum eyes on me. I haven't done the best job of establishing I'm town, so honestly if they choose to shoot me over a syllo or oats or dieno, I would be quite happy.
42
risk7nuke
11-26-2012
01:48 AM ET (US)
You shouldn't talk about coordinating vig shots. If mafia is bluehunting it will draw eyes onto you.
41
goodkarma
11-26-2012
01:35 AM ET (US)
I'm a 600 AD character, and it doesn't look like I get any bonuses either.
At this point, it looks like I'm committed to either 100 or 150 points on CJ at day's end tomorrow. From everything I've read in his filter, I see no compelling reason not to do the full 150 pts of damage.
I won't post the entire QT as it contains information related to risk's role and flavor, and I'm not going to be the one to give that out.
If there's something specific you're looking for then let me know. But the CJ shot damage is discussed here.
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Well, I'm done for today I'll check back tomorrow. Repeating your same arguements and me repeating what I've already said in response over and over isn't going to get us anywhere.
There's a few things you could do to validate my claim.:
1) I already claimed my target in Mason QT. Wait until tomorrow to see if my claim checks out.
2) Bring me along in a party with three "confirmed town." If you can fail a mission and still get a lynch, clearly the consequences aren't that terribad... And what's more, I'm town so you won't even have to worry about that in the first place...
3) Continue to angrily OMGUS me, waste vigi shots and/or a lynch, and be down one more town. Having a claim that is verifiable, this is a very stupid option.
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I think I figured out what was wrong. Since I chunked it, I was one /QUOTE short. Mercifully spoilered, here is my response to his first part of his argument, spoilered. Hopefully now people will actually take some time to read it, and realize how bad his argument is...:
On November 29 2012 12:16 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2012 11:01 Promethelax wrote:GK and how he feels about Sandroba and Syllo: A thesis in failOn November 21 2012 13:06 goodkarma wrote:Okay. I'm pretty much caught up. I'd like to address several things. First: On November 21 2012 12:16 Promethelax wrote:
Clarity, i would agree with you if Hapa's reaction to Kier's questions had been what I expect from a town Hapa but it wasn't. My short list is a little bit shorter. Why would you vote anyone you don't have a town read on?
Goodkarma: have you played any games since our Newbie Mini Misfortune?
Hapa: what kind of player would get your vote? Not Kier, Not Marv...who?
Keir: how many scum does it take to sabotage a mission? My guess is that even a single one will fuck us so a scum Marv would not need to pick any scummers.
Yes. I had much better games after that. I hope there's no hard feelings for that particular game, as I played scum about as terribly as I possibly could clamming up when really saying just about anything would have prevented my early lynch. My other two games: In NMM XXIV: The hero that saved the town from a 5-3 MYLO to win the game. In LVII: Mafia suicide bomber. Could have played better but mafia got the win anyway. Rockband mini: I replaced out day one as scum. Never actually checked to see how it ended. Who I would nominate (if not myself):As of right now, my support for a party leader (besides myself) would be sandroba. Sandroba seems to be adopting a solid strategy at present. I wholeheartedly agree with going with the most townie individuals, even if they are inexperienced. We don't know how the minigames are going to work yet, but we do know with 100% certainty that scum will count against their success. In a game where we don't lynch, all we can do is establish who is actually town. It is absolutely ridiculous to nominate people who have both strong scum and town games and are hard to read day one (thinking of Marv). I also completely agree with the suggestion that's been brought up that parties be suggested by those who are hoping to be nominated up-front. This is especially important if we are to nominate a townie who isn't as experienced. Goodkarma for President:As your leader, I will do my best to further the policy of choosing the most obvious townies as detailed above. Along those lines, I would elect to choose both sandroba and promethelax for my party. The third is still tentative, as the game has only been going for a short time. Just wanted to highlight what is essentially GK's first post in this game, it supports Sandro while presenting himself as an alternate candidate. Weirdly runs against someone who he would include in his party which makes no sense from a townie perspective, does he think his reads are better than Sand's? So this, to me, is a point in the scummy direction. He wants to be leader over Sand but has a town read on Sand. I wasn't voting Sand because I did not have a town read on him but if I did think he was town I would want him to lead over me any day. Sand is one of the best players this forum has. So essentially, you’re saying there’s no town motivation for including Sandroba in the party, who at that point in the game I had a town read on? Did you look? Did you fucking try to find motivation in my filter, like at all?
I’m sorry, but I get a bit frustrated when people don’t learn from their prior mistakes. Again you make a terrible case against me, and again I’m forced to make a ridiculously long response that could have been avoided if you were a more diligent reader…:On November 22 2012 15:59 goodkarma wrote:On November 22 2012 15:18 Promethelax wrote:
GK:
1) I miss being called prox <3
2) Your proposed team is butt fuck bad. Including Sand makes voting you as bad an idea as voting Sand. If I was confidant that Sand was town I'd vote his ass over yours any day (no offense but he is a beast and you are one of the top newbs to come out of the games when I was new. But so are Keir and Hapa).
3) Oats isn't a town read, he is an 'excited to play mafia' read. He reminds me a lot of my first game where I posted all of the posts even though I was mafia and being quiet would have been smarter.
4) you called Djo a weak town read for you and said you couldn't see this team changing.
Sorry bud, not a chance you'll get my vote. I like you as a person but this election ain't for you. Just to be clear, my choices weren't specifically made because I just have to win an election. I'm honestly not that upset if I don't win, as long as what I feel to be a strong town team party is established as an outcome of the discussion. To that end, I didn't put winning chances into consideration when determining my party...You are right that being quiet in this particular setup is terrible for mafia. But at the same time I had trouble supporting a party full of inactives and semilurkers, as there's no way to definitively determine that they are town either. I chose to eliminate anyone I deemed difficult to definitively read. That included: trolls (Kush and friends), hardcore lurkers (such as Adam), semi-lurkers (such as yourself, at the time I made my picks), and hard-to-read vets (such as Marv). That narrowed the field of who I could choose substantially. I do very much appreciate the concerns you have voiced over my picks. I would say it was largely via a process of elimination. But I would ask that if you are so adamently opposed to them that you explain to me how the alternatives you support are better suited. Kitaman has done nothing to establish he's town. He's said he wants to be leader, and that's honestly about it. I suppose he's made a few jabs at really safe targets too (such as kush...). Deino is largely an unknown. Acro is someone whose meta and story I can't presently follow. He's clearly angry, but as a townie or scum I can't decide at present. You seem to be an avid supporter of him, so I would be interested to know what quality he possesses that has you so confident he is town. As for Prox: I was thinking you would make a good candidate, but your activity waned. Not only that, but since proposing some solid setup ideas, you have fervently supported Acro for reasons unbeknownst to me... And have been opposed to Sandroba, again for reasons unbeknownst to me... I would really appreciate clarification in both departments. I definitely took a hardline, rigid stance on my choices, but that doesn't mean I won't change them if you propose a strong alternative. As it is, however, you have yet to do so. So, as town, I had no problem with my town read leading. In fact, my motivation for running was to establish a system that others would follow. Openness in describing which party members the party leaders running would take… On November 21 2012 13:50 goodkarma wrote:On November 21 2012 13:46 Hopeless1der wrote:On November 21 2012 13:41 goodkarma wrote:On November 21 2012 13:36 Hopeless1der wrote:Greetings all. You'll notice that we're currently in 600 AD Guardia. You're also playing a themed game hosted by none other than Greymist. Please keep that in mind. (Hi Mementoss, you're cool too). Basic vote mechanics for this game seem to boil down to -identify town -vote town to lead the party -Profit -Kill Mafia/Lavos -More Profit
What are people's thoughts on claiming that their character belongs to the 600 AD era and selecting the leader based on that. (YOU ONLY CLAIM "600 AD") Possibly selecting the entire party from within the era, assuming enough of a pool emerges. I linked Chronopedia above in case anyone feels the need to check it out. ~17ish native characters from 600 AD. I think our hidden numbers are influenced by the current era, and events can have varying degrees of success or failure depending on which specific players (not just town or scum) are in the party. Come play the setup speculation game with me please! No. Setup speculation is for chumps. I'd like to hear your thoughts on who we should choose for a party leader and why. Choose town. Win events. Kill Lavos. This has already been covered. I don't have any strong townreads yet. So in the meantime, I want to plant some ideas about how the setup works because you can bet your ass its going to matter. Of course it will matter. But talking about how certain deliberately hidden variables could or could not work that are outside our control is a waste of time. The one thing we presently can control is who we choose for our party, and that's where are focus should be. So please stop shitting up the thread advocating setup speculation. says the guy talking about setup. Okay, saving this, if he goes back to set up it is just shitting up the thread. On November 21 2012 15:45 goodkarma wrote:On November 21 2012 15:30 Keirathi wrote:On November 21 2012 15:26 goodkarma wrote:
Keir brings up a couple good points. Perhaps our host could explain?:
Are chosen party members kill-immune?
If not, what happens if scum kill a party member? We don't even know anything about HOW the scum kills, other than it doesn't follow the traditional "1 KP = 1 dead". We have an HP value, and have no idea how much HP damage the scum can do in a single cycle, how they will do it, or who they can do it to. But we have HP. Scum must be able to remove it somehow. And if we have let's say a small hidden value score lead over scum, it would be important to know if scum can or cannot off people in the party to tip the scales against us. Especially if a medic-type role exists for town.I feel this is a very relevant and answerable question to ask the host. But I must agree with oats that outside of a response from him it's not a good use of our time to discuss further. oh hey, look, more set up speculation. Alright. Reasonable, there were reasons for this. But besides set up all GK has talked to up to this point is being pro Sand / kinda pro me and advice for Djo and Dieno (who clearly needs some damn advice, like SUBMIT YOUR FUCKING PARTY YOU FOOL!) So, determining how the game mechanics work, and how best to use them, at the very start of the game is dumb???The questions GK ask aren't very town oriented, scum needs to know how to fuck with the party and his questions to the mods are: On November 21 2012 15:26 goodkarma wrote:
Keir brings up a couple good points. Perhaps our host could explain?:
Are chosen party members kill-immune?
If not, what happens if scum kill a party member? "Hey guys: I know some townies might be kill immune, could I know who? Thanks lulz." Town also needs to know this… Fucking idiot.On November 21 2012 17:07 goodkarma wrote:
@Oats:
I suggested that if I am not elected Sandroba is my current alternative pick for party leader. That should say something about my current read on him. But I will briefly recap: His ideas for how to produce a successful town party are ones that I agree with. That others apparently are familiar with his meta, and that he is either a strong town or weak scum player is icing on the cake. That being said, before I would place a vote towards him I would need to know which party members he would choose and why.
-snippy-
So GK has 1) a town read on Sandro and 2) will not vote him unless he reveals his party. Know who he voted though? On November 23 2012 07:36 Mementoss wrote:
Vote Count
Kitaman27 (5): CaveJohnson, Kitaman27, Promethelax,phagga, strongnbig
Goodkarma (1): risknuke
Hapahauli (3): Hapahauli, Iamperfection, Clarity_nl,
Dienosore (1): Dienosore
Syllogism (14): Toadesstern, Acrofales, BioSC, Hopeless1der, djodref, keirathi, goodkarma, Adam4167, Syllogism, Oatsmaster, Marvellosity, TheChronicler, zboson, sandroba
Remember that voting is mandatory.
All votes must be in by Thursday, Nov 22 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Do you know why? I do On November 23 2012 01:05 goodkarma wrote:On November 23 2012 00:18 syllogism wrote:
I can't explain it better than I have. It doesn't feel like he cares about figuring things out and there is no sense of urgency despite him being one of the most likely people to be elected. He has made no attempts at figuring out who mafia is and it seems to me he is hiding behind the fact he doesn't have to. There is being lazy and then there is just not caring. My other reasons rely on my knowledge of how he thinks and some of the things he has said feel off; can't elaborate more on that.
Yes, I might gain more votes by making my reads public. I would also gain more reads by pretending to be completely confident in my reads; I'm not. I have not finalized my team yet (right now I've 2 whom I'm likely to take and a few possibilities for the third) and may not finalize it until the end. An honest assessment as to why I'm not going to is a combination of considering it optimal play (if I get the votes), being lazy and because sometimes my town reads rely on things other players may find flimsy or the reasons are otherwise difficult to explain (tone, whether the person feels earnest).
If I were mafia, there would be absolutely no reason not to make the list of people I intend to pick public. I question if this is in fact true. Being held accountable upfront for the people you choose is important, as is producing an open forum of discussion for others. Such discussion provides valuable information about others' thought processes that would otherwise be lost. Also, from a scum perspective, a blind ticket can sometimes be more appealing for people to get behind than a known ticket (And for this reason being secretive would be a good play as mafia.)... And yes, I'm droning, and, this certainly is obvious, yet it beared discussion due to how absurd the bolded portion of your quote is. I honestly don't care if you find your reasoning for one or two members of your selected party could be flimsy to others. Give us a chance to stack up your chosen party against your reads. Pretty please. As for what I plan to do:I hereby concede my campaign. There did appear to be some going interest in it, and I will certainly take future note of it for the future. However, I will not have the appropriate time to gather the momentum I will need to come from behind, and it is important we consolidate our votes as the deadline approaches. I will be voting for syllogism. I am really displeased with his determination to keep his party secret, as I have already outlined. However, he is hands down the lesser of the three (fairly evenly distributed by votes) evils. Of Kita, Sandroba, and Syllo, I choose syllo. I would further recommend that in the interest of consolidation as soon as possible we bring it down to two people. Having three people stay in the running in the long term will be much easier for mafia to manipulate. ##Unvote##Vote: Syllogism GK votes for the lesser of three evils, a guy who is doing something he thinks is scummy. He votes that guy over his town read. Uh-huh... At this point I had determined Sandroba wasn’t to be trusted. I only had a town read on him early, and became suspicious after he afk lurked. I mean, if you were to read my fucking filter you’d know this...I actually don’t get at all what you’re trying to get at below… You go back in time before the vote, and then make believe that I didn’t have my reads change over time… I’m not going to address your discussion here, as you clearly didn’t take the time to get your facts straight…On November 22 2012 00:01 goodkarma wrote:On November 21 2012 22:50 sandroba wrote:
I wouldn't mind syllo being leader either and if I win I will give him veto power over the people I choose. I'm fairly certain he is town at this point. I found this particular quote to be upsetting. I understand, on the one hand, if you have a town read on syllo. But I don't understand why you would be willing to go so far as to allow him to veto your picks. If you're not that confident in your choices, you should as well just have him pick for you... Or better yet, let him be party leader. As current "frontrunner" I would like a response from you on this scandal. Are you looking to concede and have syllo run in your stead, or was this merely an assertion that you are super-confident syllo is town? Here is one of the few posts that GK has addressing his thoughts on Sand before the vote. He is upset that Syllo would get veto privilages because he does not have a town read on Syllo, the gentleman who ended up with his vote. So what other reasons did GK have for not voting Sand? On November 22 2012 12:11 goodkarma wrote:
My current thoughts on party leader:
So... It would seem that syllo has yet to make any additional moves, and sandoba, while back, hasn't really made that much of an additional comment on his party he's taking with him.
Firstly, sandroba has now made it clear that he strongly believes syllo to be town. I do not have the "meta" read priveleges that he does, and as such, cannot make this read. Yet, at this point I would go so far as to say that sandroba has put so much faith into syllo that a vote for either is semi-interchangable. Between the two of them, I see one party leader ticket. I don't have presently a town read on syllo, and so am less comfortable voting for Sandroba than I previously was.
Sandroba, who was someone I was very excited about having as party leader with his solid early ideas for how to select his party, also has yet to provide some idea of who he's considering at present for his party. This is another point that makes me less comfortable voting Sandroba. I'm still leaning towards sandroba being town, but I question why it is he has become fairly quiet relative to the beginning of the game.
So, in Summary...:
While many here give Sandroba/Syllo respect for being a "vet," it's incredibly hard for me to sort through a sea of one-liners and go, "That guy is definitely town..." Actually, insert Marv's name here too as he's guiltiest of this...
-snippy-
Mafia manipulation:
Many of you seem to fear that it will be super-easy for mafia to hide in a setup where they don't necessarily need to spend all that much time faking scumhunting. But when you blindly vote for one guy you are missing an amazing opportunity to spot them out. By voting for a known 4-person party (where the party leader presents his choices) you are doing a better job of forcing their hand. They will be trying to steer the vote towards selecting their own members, and their voting should reflect that.
As an added bonus, this allows you to spread your risk. You can determine if the choices of the party leader match up to your own, and at least to some degree, determine how likely it is that the party has a mafia member in it.
By voting for a singular leader, it's an all or nothing proposition. They get their candidate in, or they don't. Either way, we get far less information from that. We will not be able to narrow down what went wrong should things go wrong. Is it a scum party leader with questionable choices or a town party leader with questionable choices? The only way you'd know for sure is to lynch every party leader who fails his mission... This is a system I am wholeheartedly opposed to.
In Conclusion:
Nothing in this game is certain, but what I am certain of is that there's not a snowflake's prayer in hell I'm voting for either sandroba or syllo (or should I say sandollo?) until they provide more information on who they're bringing and why. I wasn't altogether serious about "running for office" before but I am now. I am unhappy with what I see and will be making a post outlining who I'll bring and why within the next couple hours. Right, Sand and Syllo are too comfortable with each other. That leadership bid I made was a joke but it isn't a joke. Don't vote Sand or Syllo until they tell us who they are taking. I'm with him here. I get it. But his vote ends up on Syllo. And his proposed party from his new campaign? I present exibit a) On November 22 2012 15:10 goodkarma wrote:
Okay. To the best of my ability I have selected a team. I would like to take a few seconds to note that I was very disappointed my shortlist wasn't longer. Many people here have not taken the effort to establish themselves as town. I'm not by any means the perfect reader in this game, but by making a few more reads on who you feel are viable candidates many of you could have made it easier for me as I could have had more insight into your thought process.
I will not lie. None of these I have a "definitely town" read on. However, given the context of their play so far, I feel their play is more likely town-motivated than scum-motivated, and the best prospects for being town.
In no particular order:
1) Oats: This is a guy who has played unafraid of what others think of him, making a mediocre (at best) case against clarity and chiming in every chance he gets. He clearly is excited to scumhunt, which is what I believe to be the only reason he placed a vote on toad. I visualize a scum in this setup taking more time discussing who's town, which is definitely the "safer" route.
2) Djo: I can't say that I have a very strong read on him, but I'm leaning towards town. He has proposed his own ideas for how to run an election. A scum could be just as forthcoming, however. Beyond that, I have to go off of his reads: he doesn't trust acro and prox, and thinks oats is town. I am in general agreement there. Definitely my weakest read.
3) Sandroba: However much I feel he's playing lazy (he is), I keep coming back to his filter. I do currently believe that he is town. Everything he has done to date has been to provide clarity and insight into reads others have had and the general mechanics of this specific game. He could do this as scum, but I am inclined to believe he could have been a little less helpful and gotten away with it as scum as well. I look forward to seeing his proposed party as this will provide the information I need to help solidify my understanding of his thought process and determine if he truly belongs on this platform. But as it currently stands, I believe him to be town, and am including him on my platform.
A brief note on Dieno: He is playing so badly that many would consider him likely town, as newbie scum tend to play far more cautiously. However, the persistence and singlemindedness with which he's been pushing his campaign (even after repeatedly being warned) and shitting up the thread leaves enough doubt in my head to exclude him. As a newbie town trying to improve he would have changed his gameplan long ago, as a troll he would be more, well, trolly, and as a newbie who doesn't give a shit he would have given up. How he's been playing is just plain sad, to the point where I wonder if what he's been doing is deliberately anti-town as a scum. He most definitely could be town, but I would rather not take such a risk on such an unknown.
I would not say these names are 100% rigid, but I would have to hear a really damn good argument for me to change this lineup. I look forward to hearing what all of you have to say. Note that he would require a ‘really good argument' to change any of these players. So he still has a town read on Sand. On November 22 2012 19:52 goodkarma wrote:On November 22 2012 18:52 phagga wrote:
@Goodkarma
If you trust Sandro so much, why do you not vote him? If GK thinks Sandro is so townie that you includes him in your team, why should I vote you instead of Sandro?
What do you say to the following: You are scum, you include a town sandro to make his team more townie, hoping to catch more votes like that. I answered all of these questions if you were to actually take the time to read my filter...
As for what I think of Sandroba currently, I can understand the selection of Kush, but I don't like it. If Kush is in fact telling the truth I find it hard to believe there are that many people lower than 30 HP in a game that has 999HP max (I know this is very speculative but still...). As such I would expect him to have a contingency plan if Kush were to die...
I readily admit that Sandroba may not be the best candidate as he's been playing. Since I nominated him, he's been extremely stingy with the details of who he plans on choosing and why.Further I missed there was a role claim by Dien... And I will admit that by adopting a process of elimination-type process it is possible that I overlooked better qualified candidates that are possibly in the "semi-lurker" position. Prox especially comes to mind. But I would like to say that while this is definitely in part my fault it is additionally the fault of those people who have decided to sit back and let things play out without voicing their opinions. It has made it that much harder for me to find three strong candidates. I will reassess my choices, and have a finalized list here in the next few hours. I'll try to touch up on the thread tomorrow as best I can, but will be rather time-limited. Currently the two I object most to on the Kita ticket are Kita and Acros. Kita especially as he has done very little to even try to establish himself as town, and, as the leader of his ticket, that worries me. A lot... So, firstly, no GK did not answer these questions in his filter. He Proposed that we shouldn't, as a town, put all ours eggs in the Sand/Syllo basket. But he puts Sand in his party. One basket. One government. But now Sand 'might not be the best candidate' though nothing about who would be the best. If he is no longer the best candidate why is he still a top three town read? I dunno and I doubt GK has a reason either. Did you miss this part, from the fucking quote you used. Are your eyes really that bad that you can’t include stuff that’s right in front of you?…:
“I will reassess my choices, and have a finalized list here in the next few hours. I'll try to touch up on the thread tomorrow as best I can, but will be rather time-limited.”On November 22 2012 20:43 goodkarma wrote:On November 22 2012 15:53 syllogism wrote:
Right now I would say there is a >50% chance that sandroba is mafia. His interest in the game feels superficial and some of his posts feel off. For instance him saying that he is "torn" about clarity_nl as opposed to actually stating whether he now thinks it is more likely that he is town or mafia. His explanation as to why he thought clarity was mafia is also pretty weak by his standards. Pouncing with one-liners on weak stuff? That probably applies to many, many people in every single game. Missed this discussion from syllogism on Sandro... He is no longer on my list. Oats is on both of our lists, and upon skimming his filter I found this: On November 21 2012 15:44 Oatsmaster wrote:
Dont guess Djo, how could you know how mafia KPs work in this setup.
Does scum have to send in actions before they know who the party leader is? or after the whole party is made?
I think you misunderstand me. My point is that we should focus on completing the tasks since that is the only way town gets an advantage. The best way to complete the tasks is the send the 4 towniest players I know it's petty semantics, but since sending in actions is a matter-of-fact thing, I would expect a town to ask if actions were sent in before or after. Since it is a disadvantageous thing for scum if actions are sent in, asking if they have to be sent before party leaders are announced makes sense. So What Now?:Oats is definitely a bit of a try-hard newbie, and honestly that was part of what I felt was townie about him. The biggest issue, however, is that being a tryhard this game is pretty important for the scum wincon, and as such I would expect most scum to be active members (likely more active than town). Between this and that he was included on sandro's list, I am inclined to remove him as well for the time being. I'm not saying he's scum, but I was too eager to bring in people I saw as active and acting pro-town while he could just as easily be acting as scum in this way. Oh wait? Does that mean that you are about-facing and saying Sandroba is scum? Not necessarily. All I know is that there is enough doubt on him, and since I nominated him he has performed very poorly for town. In my opinon town has not done enough to differentiate itself from the scum and that is where my problem has been. These two are going to be replaced with your average town representatives, which at this point of the game I am confident is the semi-lurker demographic. It's not what I would have hoped for, but it looks to be the safest demographic to tap from, especially since more than half the current players reside there... I can't snippy any of this, it matters. 1) Sand is no longer on his list 2) Oats is removed due to being related to Sand 3) but Sand isn't scum. I'll let GK tell you what to think about this himself: On November 24 2012 14:33 goodkarma wrote:On November 24 2012 14:29 TheChronicler wrote:On November 24 2012 14:15 Z-BosoN wrote:On November 24 2012 14:11 Djodref wrote:On November 24 2012 14:02 Z-BosoN wrote:@TheChronicleYou keep saying I'm not reading, that people are not reading, that people are stupid, or whatever, but you fail to supply evidence. I've searched your filter yet again and couldn't see where you responded to this: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=382922¤tpage=102#2037At least in a way in which I could recognize it as an attempt. Can you please quote the part where you replied specifically to the post I linked? @Z-BosoNHe has already addressed it. His plan was not based on the fact that people were going to chose other people based on their townreads, but based on "certain reads". So there is no apparent contradiction but it reinforces my conviction that he made this plan to not be elected with. I'm not saying that the plan is necessarily bad, in fact I'm quite interested with his idea, but what I'm sure is that his plan was not well thought through, it doesn't look like he really believes in it and it's was made with the goal to not be elected. This makes zero sense to me. Why would he pick three people if not people based on his own town reads? What the hell do you/him mean by "certain reads". What other reads are there when choosing the "team pickers"? Lol, you have to be scum. There's absolutely no way I can see you as town. I sat here for like five minutes trying to find the contradiction, then I realized this was just so much easier to explain if you/acro were scum together. On November 24 2012 05:22 Z-BosoN wrote:On November 24 2012 05:12 TheChronicler wrote:
Again there's no contradiction and I have a hard time believing acro is that bad. Where do I say I'm convinced my plan was bad acro? I still think its what we should have done and what we should do. However, I'm not so blind as to stick to my plan if everyone else thinks its horrible. Do you expect me to scream and shout shitting up the thread? No one liked my plan, I gave it up because shitting up the thread with discussion about it is stupid. Kind of like what you're doing right now...
Where did I say the people I chose would be my town reads? You're grasping at straws here trying to make me look bad. I can't help but look at the person who I think started this and then dipped from the thread, Z-Bo On November 24 2012 04:02 Acrofales wrote:Oh jesus. This feels like finding Drazak (not Drazerk) was scum in Acme. The contradictions just keep piling up. Plan: On November 21 2012 12:25 TheChronicler wrote:On November 21 2012 11:59 Oatsmaster wrote:
random fluff post,
Lotta Brazilians :O Useless. Don't post like this. On November 21 2012 12:14 Clarity_nl wrote:
I do not have any kind of read on anyone yet. He would be a good choice because if he's scum it'll show comparatively to his town play. Who is he? I'm assuming Hapa. ---------------------------------------------- I'd like to be the party leader. I'm an unknown (hopefully) and no one will make stupid bullshit meta reads on the leader that would probably be worse than a coin flip. That's pretty much the only reason I want to lead. I don't even want to pick who will be the three on my team, which takes me to the next part of my pitch, and something I hope whoever is leader uses. If I'm leader I don't want to choose the three people with me. I want to choose three people to choose three people who will be on the team. They can choose themselves if they'd like. Why do this? Because it gets us more information. If I'm not chosen leader I'd like the person who IS chosen to implement this system. We still get information from who the leader chooses, AND we get information based upon who the three chosen people choose. Summary: leader dishes out TOWN reads and then each town read dishes out town reads. On November 24 2012 02:50 TheChronicler wrote:
1) I think I said this, but I don't believe in ever giving town reads because that just says to scum "shoot these people"
![[image loading]](http://assets.diylol.com/hfs/837/f64/b8f/resized/da-fuck-meme-generator-da-fuck-297845.jpg) Really, no contradiction? At all? Really? Two people jumping on the same thing and both being equally wrong? I've given a lot of leeway with reading for this, but I can't find anything in my posts that say I would choose town reads. Why try and make something so easily checked like that up? Something so purposefully misleading only has scum motivation. Association based scum read on two unflipped players? Even a scrub like me knows that's sloppy play... -_- So we have a strong town read turn into a null read and an association tell on another player. If Sand is not scum how is Oats scummy by association? I don't get it. Are you getting somewhere with this? Does attacking my play make you feel better? What is my actual scum motivation for removing Oats then?His new proposed team is Djo Phag and Dieno (based on RC) He dropped a scum and a now 'confirmed' town from his list together. So who does he replace them with? A (now) 'confirmed' town and Phag. If GK is scum (something I am more and more sure of, than I think looking at Phag again might be worth while. Weee association. Firstly, I don’t see any scum motivation in this. Why is it any less likely that I would do this as town? And while we’re at it, let’s get to another point. It is very possible only one scum would be needed to ruin an event. So why is it suddenly you seem to assume for this entire argument that I as scum would feel I needed to bring a scum buddy along?That finishes cycle one-
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On November 29 2012 11:01 Promethelax wrote:-snip- in cycle two the first thing GK does is Show nested quote +On November 23 2012 18:47 goodkarma wrote:
I am entirely opposed to troll(CaveJohnson) hunting at present. I am not as confident as some seem to be that, based off his current anti-town dialogue, he has demonstrated he in fact is mafia.
On the other hand, if Sandroba's meta (as stated by others here) is to be believed, he is a clear choice as a lynching candidate for today. He has gone into hardcore lurker mode, which normally is something I wouldn't consider a tell. However, as a player of his reputation that plays so well as town to disappear as he has, I deem voting to lynch him appropriate. I would like to hear what he has to say to explain his current complete lack of caring since very early this game. And until he does:
##Vote: Sandroba based on unconfirmed meta. Remember that town read? Yeah, neither does GK. You know what he says though? Show nested quote +On November 24 2012 00:47 goodkarma wrote:On November 23 2012 21:51 sandroba wrote:
Oh my it seems I'm the only person in the game that doesn't get to have a real life every so often. I spent the night at a girl's house ytd and only got home now. I thought I would give the thread a quick read before heading to bed (yes my sleep schedule is severely fucked up) and I see that suddenly I became the main wagon. Nice. Weekend is ahead and it will be extremelly busy and now I have to fight syllo induced mislynch just to prob face the same problem again the next day. Thx. I'll be here briefily if anyone want to interact, but I'm heading to bed.
I took 125 dmg and got roleblocked.
By all means irl things happen. But that doesn't mean that your absence isn't scum-motivated... For what it's worth, though, lurker is not equal to scum, and my vote on you was more of a pressure vote. I can excuse you had irl things going on, but would certainly hope that you are more active for the remainder of the game. I would like to see these amazing scumhunting abilities that other players strongly believe you to be capable of. a pressure vote. Pressure! He called some one "a clear choice as a lynching candidate for today." and referred to his vote o that player as a pressure vote. Okay. So who is GK lying to? Himself or town? This was to encourage him to become more active in thread. The thing you conveniently neglect to mention is my vote never went off of Sandroba (until I thought he was going to be modkilled). As such, I don’t see any inconsistencies here. Again, though, spell out for me the scum motivation. You seem to be obsessed with looking for inconsistencies that both: 1) don’t exist, and 2) say nothing about how I as scum would gain anything from acting as I did…GK defends himself from pressure which Acro places on him y saying Show nested quote +On November 24 2012 01:41 goodkarma wrote:On November 24 2012 01:18 Acrofales wrote:On November 24 2012 01:06 goodkarma wrote:On November 23 2012 22:44 Acrofales wrote:On November 22 2012 22:30 goodkarma wrote:
For all those who are still distrustful of me:
You are certainly entitled to distrust me. I spent a good portion of the opening of this game discussing mechanics and not really so much reads. However, I would like to point out that I have since then:
1) Established a system of greater transparency for who is selected. It is very likely all we'd discuss is party leader, and not the corresponding parties, if I hadn't stepped in. Further, I have shown exactly why this is the best approach...
2) I have been proactive about demonstrating exactly why it is I have chosen who I have and my line of reasoning. Further, I have been (and continue to be) willing to change my platform if compelling evidence can be brought to my attention that a candidate is a weak choice.
3) The only reason I have pursued a party leader position this cycle is that the alternatives I feel at this point do not have trustworthy platforms. I am not trusting of Kita, nor at this point am I content with sending sandroba.
4) I have actually been active this game... If you were to look at any of my scum games, you would notice that I am not nearly this proactive when I play scum. You have discussed prior how it would be absolutely great if we had a candidate that had an easily recognizable town vs. scum game. Well, your welcome.
I will not be submitting my party until I leave for Thanksgiving lunch/dinner late tomorrow morning. I look forward to hearing your opinions on my party, and replying to them in a few hours. But until then, I'm getting a few hours' rest. You can add to that dissatisfaction with syllo's decision to not discuss who was in his party. If you're wandering why that bothered me so much, I could quote more stuff from my filter I guess... -_- Tbh, I've done my best to be very transparent in my reasoning behind my decisions. Most questions you bring up about motives for playing as I have I am quite confident that you will find the answers to in my filter. You have a full-on town read of Sandro at the time you decide to run yourself (as evidenced by your very "GK for president" post. Syllo only came much later (I checked timestamps). I am having a lot of trouble understanding why you were "uncontent" sending Sandro at the time. So the sequence of events went something like this: discontent with lack of transparency in who candidates would choose to go with them-->seriously run for office (in part to show by example how others should run, showing others who they'd actually bring) Upon reassessing my read on Sandro, I came to the realization that he was a poor choice, but the original intent in running was to get going the idea that the entire party should be known up-front. Again, this should be clear from my filter... as I think you've seen that is not what GK says. Here and now GK's insistence that he is a careful player who edits his posts over and over means that what he says is not a mistake. Which means the contradictions in his filter are not a townie being silly but a scum being scummy. So, as this happens GK gives himself an out: Show nested quote +On November 24 2012 13:34 goodkarma wrote:
I can understand the excuses that Sandroba has provided, but I find the complete lack of followup on who he would consider a prime scum suspect to be disturbing. It's as though he is holding back, maybe... because he's scum, and as scum making up even a half-baked scumread is hard for him. I would really like to see him take some initiative and actually help town out. He continues to fail to deliver in this department, which would leave me to believe that his complete apathy and lack of involvement in this game is indeed scum-driven.
I will keep my vote on Sandroba for the time being. Syllo has all but proven himself to be town at this point, and I will change my vote from Sandroba only if he somehow believes he isn't scum after his latest post. This only because I don't feel my scumread on Sandroba is strong enough without the reaffirmation. And yes, sheeping makes me a hypotwit...
I am going to now focus my attention on TheChronicler and Kitaman He allows himself a way to vote away from Sand which is just a sheep vote. A pre-excused sheep vote. That is totally a thing townies + Show Spoiler + do. Really? Townies never sheep? This is an absolutely ridiculous statement I will just leave it at that… And I clearly explained there were other aspects that led me to suspect Sand was scum.Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 04:49 goodkarma wrote:On November 25 2012 04:41 Acrofales wrote:
No clue why I addressed that to just Marv. He's currently the most vocal, but EVERYBODY should look at the absolute lack of any useful posts in Toad's filter. I agree that Toad has been useless, but think in this context: It's four hours until lynch deadline... I am curious: Are you really that dissatisfied with the other lynch choices that you feel now is the time to form a new wagon? We should be consolidating between two candidates, not making forming new bandwagons. That makes it that much easier for mafia to manipulate the outcome for plurality lynch (Obvious, right? I state the obvious because people keep trying stunts like this...) and Toad (the confirmed scum) is useless. Distanced from but not calling scummy. Who could want to do that? Oh right, scum. but two seconds later: So what you’re saying then is that town could never act like this? I ask for us to consolidate between two choices and say that Sandroba is a stronger scum read… You’re drawing connections where none exist. Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 04:53 goodkarma wrote:
EBWOP#2:
I should add further that indeed Toad could be scum, but I don't get why your read on him would stronger than a scum read on Sandroba. what changed? nothing. GK doesn't want you to lynch Toad but you could. Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 05:49 goodkarma wrote:On November 25 2012 05:43 Clarity_nl wrote:
@ goodkarma
If you think they're both equal but you voted for Sandro first and that's why you stay, consider that Toad has actually stayed active but produced just as much content as Toad. This is a good point, but it's not like Sandro has been perma-afk or anything. He has been incredibly inactive, but when he has been here he has had nothing to contribute except in defense of himself. This has been brought up before, but it is the same kind of scumtell as you're using for the case against Toad. I won't be upset if Toad is lynched. However, that syllo is on Sandro, and I know that syllo is town, is enough to tip the scales in favor of lynching sandro for me. So I elaborate on why Sandroba is a scum read. And then I tell why Toad could be scum for the same reason… Toad didn’t have the “meta read” behind it the Sandroba vote did so in my mind it was a weaker lynch. And you make it sound as though everyone thought Toad was certain scum, and only scum would steer away from his wagon. We didn’t know he we scum until the red check the following day…
Honestly, as scum, I could have done whatever the hell I wanted. I could have bussed the crap out of Toad to gain town cred, and it wouldn’t have mattered since he was not going to be lynched over Sandroba… In other words, why is it in any way relevant that I chose Sandroba over Toad? This is pure WIFOM…oh hey, now he wouldn't even be upset if Toad was lynched but sheeping is so easy. This is a double bus attempt. With two scum players up for the lynch GK has to choose one of them to go after and it seems that Sand is the obvious one since he has so many town votes on him. But GK also realizes that he cannot support Toad too much since he is also under fire. GK is clearly scum, town have scum reads that they want lynched GK has nothing. Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 06:02 goodkarma wrote:On November 25 2012 05:56 Hapahauli wrote:
Sandro looks to be heading to a modkill, and for those of you voting for him, it's worth it to consider another voting option as to not waste the lynch for today. Toad perhaps. For what it's worth, I'll check back into this thread and change my vote to Toad if this indeed becomes the case. he'll lynch Toad and Sand if that is what we need. He (and the rest of the scum team) know that Toad and Sand are liabilities. They know that Those two will not make it to endgame so they have to bus them early and bus them hard to have any chance of getting to the late game themselves. Look at this distancing vote, look at it! Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 07:56 goodkarma wrote:
Sandroba is likely going to be modkilled.
I'm changing my vote.
##Unvote
##Vote: Toad tell me you don't think that is scum motivated. GK getting in early on a lynch that won't happen. Safe. So I changed my vote to Toad last-minute, as I earlier said I would, because I was under the understanding that Sandroba would be modkilled, and didn’t realize if he was modkilled he would be replaced… It’s almost as though… I did exactly what I said I would, and then you shit all over what I said with your own made up speculation…Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 10:19 goodkarma wrote:On November 25 2012 10:12 GreYMisT wrote:
Everyone I am very sorry for this, It should have been included in the daypost but I rushed it. Luckily I caught it only an hour in and this shall be editied in.
In addition to the party only being able to contain half of the same players as the previous party, the same party leader may not be elected twice in a row.
This means syllogism is ineligible to be elected as leader. This was supposed to be explained via flavor but you know...
Again very sorry that this information was not presented to you guys immediately. That makes things harder... So, it should be a no-brainer to shoo in one of the people from the previous successful party. I would rather not have dienosaur as party leader.
Between Oats and Keir, I flipped a coin and it came up...##Vote: KeirathiBut in all seriousness, Oats and Keir do not have Syllo-esque reads, and I believe it would be best if they have some guidance for who else they bring. Even if it's just Syllo telling one of them exactly what to do (In fact, I'd approve of this idea.). Maybe I don’t care because they’re both “confirmed town.” Also, I switched off Keir immediately after directly asking him about his low success modifier.scumtell. Doesn't care about the leader. Iamp, remember your IRC game with Marv/Thrawn/Kush etc. the one you don't want to talk about? Yeah I know you remember it. Now tell me you disagree with this read. Also: which of Kier and Oats claimed to have a low success modifier? Hmmm...right, Kier. Now I respect Kier's reads over Oats and that could be a reason to vote him but a coin flip is not. and GK knew about it. Oh yes he did: Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 11:14 goodkarma wrote:On November 25 2012 11:08 Keirathi wrote:On November 25 2012 11:05 goodkarma wrote:@Keir:On November 22 2012 05:49 Keirathi wrote:On November 22 2012 05:47 iamperfection wrote:On November 22 2012 05:47 Keirathi wrote:On November 22 2012 05:47 iamperfection wrote:On November 22 2012 05:45 Keirathi wrote:On November 22 2012 05:42 Acrofales wrote:
[quote]
How the hell do you have any idea what your HIDDEN success modifier is? What CaveJohnson's post made me think of was 3rd party. I thought syllo was referring to the fact that a 3rd party didn't want to come along on the mission was "townie", because he at least cares enough about the town to warn them off. So why do you think I said that, then? do you know your success modifier? Not specifically, but yes. i dont understand I don't know "My 'success modifier' is 3." But I do know that I have a low success modifier. Yes, but what question are you wanting me to answer? My role pm specifically says something to the effect that any party I'm in has a lower chance of success. Okay. I just wanted to be extra extra sure about this. In that case, if only 1/2 of the party can come from last time I would rather you were not in it. ##Unvote
##Vote: OatsmasterIt's between Oats and dieno then... I would propose Oats assume party leader and sheep syllo's choices. Now, GK seems to have forgotten how he felt about Syllo in the early game. He is, retroactively, very pleased with voting Syllo. He wouldn't vote Djo (who he still has a town read on) because: Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 18:25 goodkarma wrote:On November 25 2012 18:24 Djodref wrote:On November 25 2012 18:08 iamperfection wrote:On November 25 2012 18:04 Djodref wrote:On November 25 2012 17:59 iamperfection wrote:
djo will this mystery player remain a secret? Yes, I'm not going to reveal him at all ^^ then you wont have my vote and i dont think you will get anyone else's vote. Come on, have you forget on which campaign platform syllo has been elected ? This guy has been elected qhen his plan was to reveal nothing... But you're not syllo  . I was skeptical that syllo was town, and then after becoming a “confirmed town” that successfully lead a party, I found it reasonable to trust his judgement. Is this really so difficult to figure out? Am I the only person that did this? No, I wasn’t. Sci-Fi channel has some conspiracy shows you might be able to help out with…Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 16:57 goodkarma wrote:On November 26 2012 16:51 Oatsmaster wrote:
so GK, your conclusion is that not wanting to be in the party is not a scumtell.
RIGHT?
Also that if we see someone pushing hard to be in the party, i/e Djo. We should be more suspicious of them I'm saying that it's entirely plausible that scum is still pushing to be in the party even though it could be suicidal at this point long-term. With Djo, he has pushed hard this cycle to be elected. As scum, I doubt that he could secure the mislynch as Acro might. He isn't a strong town read with people here (myself included), and as such I would think he would be worried about being spotted as the weak link in the team. In other words, I would say the opposite with Djo. His pushing to be party leader is rather misguided and in my opinion not very pro-town given the strong alternatives right now. However, it isn't a scum tell. Given that his actions don't really make sense to me as scum, I would actually say it's a town tell. And now Djo isn't a town read. Totally unexplained but no longer so town that you would bring him in your party. Great. Read the quote. I dare you to. Did you see the words “town tell” anywhere in it? Maybe Djo still is a town read.Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 23:56 goodkarma wrote:
-snips-
I would say that Toad is a low priority target, as in, please don't shoot him. From the two flips we've seen, and based off the abilities that have claimed that can do damage, there is no reason to think we could one-shot Toad. So targeting people we won't be able to get to lynch anytime soon is definitely a better option.
-snips- Don't shoot confirmed scum with your Vig abilities. Does anyone agree with this? It is scum as fuck. The idea of having damaging abilities and using them to flip lurkers when we have confirmed scum is terribad. I was not the only person opposed to shooting Toad. I believe Keir says it best:
On November 29 2012 05:44 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2012 05:12 Hapahauli wrote:big]We have to try to kill Toad tonight! Any other ideas are fucking retarded. We don't know when the next lynch cycle is, and we can't risk leaving him alive forever. Furthermore, there's a good chance we can kill him - we don't know if he's at full heath or not, and there's a decent chance that we have enough collective damage to dispatch of Toad at full health. Even if we get a lynch tomorrow (which we have no way of knowing), having toad potentially alive would be really bad. We would not get any discussion done. Good god no. Don't be fucking stupid Hapa. We already know that scum had a bus driver. H1 claimed an ability that makes him completely untargetable. We have no idea what kind of protective roles scum could have. By making that claim, you've basically guaranteed that they'll use everything at their disposal to keep him alive, and waste what...2? 3? 4-5? town abilities in the process. It may have been a good idea if you didn't scream for everyone to do it, but now its just god awful retarded.
This isn’t a standard game. I’ve already discussed how it was likely we’d get the chance to lynch toad before KP could kill him, and be forced to lynch him anyway… And by the way: I told you so...When GK is pushing a not Kier/Dieno leadership he says: Show nested quote +On November 27 2012 09:56 goodkarma wrote:On November 27 2012 09:44 Promethelax wrote:
Another reason I think Dieno makes more sense if there are rewards based on the player and not which quest they lead to victory he will get the masamune. Unless Greymist chose to disregard Chrono Trigger's max HP (and I believe this to be unlikely), 999 is the most Dieno has. Dieno has already taken in excess of 400 damage, and if he becomes party leader mafia will obviously target him. Given the amount of damage we've seen mafia is capable of, it is extremely likely that he would get killed in one night. Make Dieno party leader and even if he were to get the Masamune there is no way he'd have the chance to use it... or, as we call it in mafia language: claiming to have not read the thread. This was after Dieno claimed being healed to a point where he was not worried that he would be 1shot. Show nested quote +On November 27 2012 10:19 goodkarma wrote:On November 27 2012 10:16 Acrofales wrote:On November 27 2012 10:12 Hapahauli wrote:On November 27 2012 10:10 Keirathi wrote:On November 27 2012 10:06 Hapahauli wrote:
I would like to run for party leader
My party will be Dienosaur, Kei, and either Chronicler or Acro
If you for whatever reason do not feel safe with Chronicler/Acro, I can add Oatsmaster in that slot.
Why you can trust me
I think the parties I proposed above are as near confirmed town as we can get in this situation. Given this player pool, you can trust me. Why? Because if we failed the mission, I would be holding a neon-sign saying "LYNCH ME." This is suicidal for me to do as scum. I see no reason to put 2 non successful party members in the party today (You, and Chronicler/Acro). And, you couldn't replace Acro/Chronicler with Oats. The only possible way you could replace them would be with syllo. Oh I totes confused names for some reason. Yes Syllo instead of Chronicler/Acro. Whaddya think? I'm in a position where I'm not under suspicion, and I (as hypothetical scum) would only have everything to lose by presenting myself like this. I'm not strongly opposed to you going along. I still prefer Djodref or Chronicler. I see no reason for you to be leader, though. Whatever these events do, it might be worthwhile to scum to sacrifice one to fail the event. We don't seem to be getting many lynches and already have Toad's head on the chopping block. Is there really a big difference between him being party leader, or going in the party, if in the event the party succeeds he comes out confirmed town either way? That being said, I do feel Djo is also a strong choice for fresh blood to bring. after about a million posts on how the leader gets items GK can't figure out a difference between giving Hapa a place on the team and a leadership role. GK wants the item to go to hapa instead of the 'confirmed' town Once again, later in the same cycle, GK once again forgets his own reads: Show nested quote +On November 27 2012 15:02 goodkarma wrote:On November 27 2012 14:51 Keirathi wrote:
Anyways, I've finalized my proposed party:
Me, syllo, Oats, Djodref This is a party I find completely acceptable. Apparently no one else is too worried about your low success modifier... I'll cross my fingers and hope that the success determination mechanic is similar to what you've said + Show Spoiler +(I find it consoling that the more I think about it the more unlikely it feels that it's anything like what I proposed...) . And I hope that your special powers from being in a party are crazy good... ##Unvote
##Vote: KeirathiFinal answer. And in case you're wondering, the largest reason is satisfaction with your party selection. Confirming Djo as town is a good move. GK on Djo town->scum-town. Reasons given: none. Nowhere do I ever call Djo scum. Good job in making up stuff, and putting words in my mouth.Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 08:10 goodkarma wrote:On November 28 2012 08:04 Djodref wrote:
Disclaimer: Dieno is already taken care of !
It looks like Dieno is a serious contender for the title of party leader today. I don't want people to waste heals or protections on him because I have already used a retroactive ability on him which totally protects him. I have already saved him during the second cycle I believe. So now you are free to use your abilities on someone else ^^ I aslo would like Dieno to consider taking me instead of TC on his party because I'm not fully trusting TC yet (hence my vote on Keirathi) but I'm not going to fight for it because Dieno's party is likely to succeed already imo. For what it's worth I also would prefer you to TC. But both of you are strong town reads for me atm. Is this another fake claim btw? If so, I approve. look at that role fishing, needs to know if he can kill Dieno during the night. And Djo is super townie bro now. Djo had already fake-claimed once. I wasn’t sure if I should be taking him seriously. Further, having us focus on “confirmed town” that actually are capable of helping us find scum is the priority, so even if he was “fake claiming” we would be spending our resources better.
And let me beat you to this: “OMG he just said he’d like to push Deino over a cliff. SCUMMY AS FUCK!!!” I have discussed my reasoning for this in great detail. Note: This isn’t a standard game:
On November 28 2012 06:37 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 06:25 Dienosore wrote:On November 28 2012 06:11 Promethelax wrote:On November 28 2012 06:09 Dienosore wrote:
Fuck, I keep forgetting Oats can't be in it... I remember now that I said TheChronicler earlier, but honestly I'm open to all suggestions. well stop being open to suggestions. Scum must have some influence on this game. Get your butt in gear and make one town read on your own. Unless I hear the majority of people telling me to change my vote, I have chosen TheChronicler based on my town read.
Why are you insisting that scum must have some influence? Are you perhaps threatened by the fact that you don't think your viewpoints aren't being heard or agreed on by the general populace? Enough so, that it makes you want to reinforce to the admitted new guy that scum are constantly lurking around, so you can verify to yourself that what you are doing is actually working?
You should really stop making your anger at me because I just wont fucking die so obvious. So you're saying you don't trust your own reads, and consider scum (who you've gone to no lengths to spot) are automatically a non-threat? Please play some newbie games after you're done here, so a coach can teach you how to play... As for electing you leader I've been thinking that having a heavily HP-damaged town get a item would make him a strong mafia target, and by electing you we'd lose the item and a "confirmed town." But then I remembered that there are several "confirmed town" 10X more useful than you. It won't be an easy decision for scum to kill you, and I actually would rather have you die than them. To that end anything that could make you a stronger target than someone such as Syllo or Keir is something I'm completely for. ##Unvote
##Vote: DeinoHowever incompetent I think you are, I also have a town read on TC, and am confident that the party you've proposed will succeed. We now move on to another point: What GK feels about Lurkers and why that makes him scumWe begin with this: Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 08:32 goodkarma wrote:On November 28 2012 08:29 Djodref wrote:On November 28 2012 08:12 goodkarma wrote:
@Djo:
While you're here:
StrongandBig is scum. Please discuss. I'm not here I have to go to work. I was catching up with the thread after my morning shower and stuff... I have never claimed anything. I lied about the usage an ability that I could still have  (hint: I cannot shoot anybody in fact) and I've managed to force iamp and Adam to participate. I really liked both their reactions and I'm not wooried about them anymore. It's not the case for S&B and VE. In our last game, S&B started to do some real townie stuff when he was on the verge of being lynched. My view on him right now is that he can and have to do better if he is town. But I don't have a strong scum read on him. Null for me atm. My problem is that I don't know how to force them to participate more. And, seriously, you can totally trust Dieno to me. This ability is for real. I didn't breadcrumb but you can see some hint in my filter for my D2 save. Don't worry about the lurkers. All you can do is encourage them to participate. reasonable because of course we can't do shit to make them play, don't worry about them. Even though I just said we should vig them over confirmed scum. Don’t worry about them as in lurkers are gonna lurk… Time is better spent going after scum suspects who will actually talk back to you. Really not that hard to understand… And I’ve already discussed why vigi-ing Toad is stupid. Hell, we saw first-hand why it was stupid. Hence why this whole “He didn’t want to shoot Toad. Therefore, he’s scum” argument is stupid. Note: This isn’t a standard game. HP mechanics change the optimal way of playingThe case that never wasGK calls SnB scum here: Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 08:12 goodkarma wrote:
@Djo:
While you're here:
StrongandBig is scum. Please discuss. and promises a case a few times, here though he is working on it: Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 09:32 goodkarma wrote:On November 28 2012 09:29 Acrofales wrote:On November 28 2012 09:26 goodkarma wrote:On November 28 2012 09:20 Acrofales wrote:On November 28 2012 08:01 goodkarma wrote:On November 28 2012 07:24 strongandbig wrote:hey guys just caught up with teh threadzor so correct me if i'm wrong but we're picking dienosore to be party leader because he might get masamune? keirathi do you think it would help you at all to be the party leader instead of a party follower? also i think that hopeless is scum even though it turns out acro is 3p - some of the things that hopeless has done since being checked seem to me like scum in desperation like the whole thing about being on a party - this and hapa's thing and the chronicler all have done it - like i said to hapa before, i'm suspicious of anyone who says "put me in the party" instead of just relying on their townieness to be self-evident or whatever, because scum might have more information than we do and they might be starting to really want us to fail a mission some other stuff: On November 27 2012 12:49 Hopeless1der wrote:I think we've decided that our Party leader is going to be one of our previous party members. Oats cannot lead. That leaves: - Syllogism
- Keirathi
- Dienosore
- Clarity_nl
This could very well be the party that runs today's event. Only one of Dienosore and Oatsmaster can be on the party due to setup restrictions. Oatsmaster and Syllogism have already led a party before and have items to show for it. I believe the leaders receive an item upon a successful mission completion. Either we try to pool resources to one player (i.e. syllo today) or we divvy up the spoils among as many players as possible while maintaining a successful party. I don't like the idea of powering up one player for a number of reasons: Scum might be able to steal items Items may be lost upon death The player may in fact be scum I'd prefer syllo and oats not be in the party at all because they currently hold items, but if we can't identify a 4th for the team, I'd pick dieno over oats and have syllo step in to fill the last spot. My choice for party leader is one of Keir, Dieno and Clarity. As I've already stated, I'd like to be included in the party. If any of them are inclined to give me the 4th spot, I'd be delighted and they will receive my vote. In the meantime, I'm fine sheeping the current votelead on Keir. ##Vote: KeirathiAlso, I hereby state that I won't put a last-minute voteswitch onto Toad today, in case anyone suspects shenanigans. like, seriously - what is the point of saying that last bit... then there's the fact that his response to a red check from tc was "bring it bitches" like, he answers the whole case point by point and then he doesn't address the check itself... tc's long case post was actually pretty bad, but after hopeless went through the case and answered it point by point, instead of actually addressing the dt check, he's just like "bring it" - that doesn't feel very town to me then there's this "im untargetable tonight" thing. i don't understand what he's trying to head off here - townies would use negative abilities on toad, and scum would use negative abilities on pretty much anyone other than h1 or toad. the only thing that seems likely to hit h1 is maybe another dt check, so i don't see how him making himself untargetable or telling us he's untargetable are helpful to town This case is pretty bad. The singlemindedness with which you push hopeless without any thought for how he could have town motivations for his actions is pretty suspicious... You feel like soft-defending H1? How about you hard-defend him instead. What the hell has h1 done that is in ANY way REMOTELY in town's best interest? So apparently pro-town = town, and anti-town = scum??? O.O Dafuq you talking about. You attack SnB over having a bad case. While I don't find his case particularly convincing, I don't see any motivation for your soft defense of H1. Enlighten us.
Calm your nipples. I'm working on my case now...
As a side note, though: speculating on Greymist's counter is pointless. If I were Greymist, I'd leave the counter at one for three days just to fuck with us. it turns out there was no case on SnB: Didn’t I already discuss this particular point in great depth? I’m thinking I did… Tell me why exactly I would be more likely to do this as scum than as town, given the motivations I previously discussed. Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 09:57 goodkarma wrote:
My strongandbig read was in fact in large part due to activity, in addition to the incomplete cases / reads he was bringing up. I was unaware, however, of the severe lack of internet he was experiencing, and will back off of him for now...
In its place I provide a mafia (the game) favorite, a scum suspect shortlist:
1) Iamp - I have a good "gut feel" about this guy I guess you could say. But he still has yet to contribute anything meaningful, which earns him a spot here. Would be willing to give him more time to see if his roleclaim checks out.
2) VE - Shoot him dead. I actually think he might be more likely to be town than scum given his enthusiasm for playing scum. But if an elimination-based approach for finding scum is to work, he has to go. He has not posted enough to make a meaningful read...
3) phagga - Need to reread his filter at some point (but not something I'm focusing on today). He has been pro-town in his contributions, but I can't help but feel he is also "playing it safe" and doing what he can to fly under the radar...
4) Adam - lurker who might need to be shot too.
5) Kita - I'm inclined to believe Marv's read of 3rd party
6) Cave - This guy won't be figured out without getting vigi killed. Shoot first, ask questions later...
7) Z-boson - From my experience with him, he likes to play pretty safe as scum, whereas as town he is rather reckless to the point of being pretty easy to mislynch. He definitely is making his own reads and contributing to thread, but all his reads I would call "safe" ones in that he is targeting almost exclusively lurkers... Null read atm, even after looking into filter.
8) Prox - Tbh I don't know what to do with him. Syllo's input is definitely appreciated, but I don't see him as a strong scum read (closer to null...).
9) Strong - I had a strong scum read based both off meta and on filter. However, with meta differences explained, I'm inclined to give him more of a chance to establish himself as town before coming to conclusions.
10) Toad - Scum
11) Hopeless (maybe) - clearly anti-town, but I'm still not convinced that he's scum. Would even go so far as to say slight town read... just a list of half (HALF) the players left in the game and why they are scum who need to be shot. I never said my list needed to be collectively shot. I have explained to you why in this particular setup list posts aren’t bad, as what’s not on the list is just as important. Everyone not on the list, minus Acro, I have as town. This, in fact means, that in addition to establishing who’s town, this list narrows the field of who to investigate. Note: It’s not a standard game.Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 10:03 goodkarma wrote:
I know people hate lists, but honestly establishing town is just as important, if not moreso, than finding scum this game. So I have less of a problem with lists.
My current conclusions:
1) Vigi shoot VE, Cave, and maybe Adam (in that order).
2) Kita probably is 3rd party...
3) Rolecheck Prox. if possible...
4) Toad = scum...
And in case you were wondering, I would say that everyone not on that list is town at this point... look at those directions to blues: shoot three guys who (though lurky) probably at least two of them are town. Calls out 3p, calls the confirmed scum scum and says to rolecheck one of our own blues which would clear me and give us no new useful information, a red check is >>>>> a green check. It did occur to you that we're probably all blues this game, right? And that many of us (myself included) don't have a good read on you. Rolechecking you wasn't a bad idea.Remember how we weren't suppossed to care about lurkers because they would sort themselves out? Again, niether does GK, Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 10:13 goodkarma wrote:On November 28 2012 10:01 iamperfection wrote:On November 28 2012 09:57 goodkarma wrote:
My strongandbig read was in fact in large part due to activity, in addition to the incomplete cases / reads he was bringing up. I was unaware, however, of the severe lack of internet he was experiencing, and will back off of him for now...
In its place I provide a mafia (the game) favorite, a scum suspect shortlist:
1) Iamp - I have a good "gut feel" about this guy I guess you could say. But he still has yet to contribute anything meaningful, which earns him a spot here. Would be willing to give him more time to see if his roleclaim checks out.
2) VE - Shoot him dead. I actually think he might be more likely to be town than scum given his enthusiasm for playing scum. But if an elimination-based approach for finding scum is to work, he has to go. He has not posted enough to make a meaningful read...
3) phagga - Need to reread his filter at some point (but not something I'm focusing on today). He has been pro-town in his contributions, but I can't help but feel he is also "playing it safe" and doing what he can to fly under the radar...
4) Adam - lurker who might need to be shot too.
5) Kita - I'm inclined to believe Marv's read of 3rd party
6) Cave - This guy won't be figured out without getting vigi killed. Shoot first, ask questions later...
7) Z-boson - From my experience with him, he likes to play pretty safe as scum, whereas as town he is rather reckless to the point of being pretty easy to mislynch. He definitely is making his own reads and contributing to thread, but all his reads I would call "safe" ones in that he is targeting almost exclusively lurkers... Null read atm, even after looking into filter.
8) Prox - Tbh I don't know what to do with him. Syllo's input is definitely appreciated, but I don't see him as a strong scum read (closer to null...).
9) Strong - I had a strong scum read based both off meta and on filter. However, with meta differences explained, I'm inclined to give him more of a chance to establish himself as town before coming to conclusions.
10) Toad - Scum
11) Hopeless (maybe) - clearly anti-town, but I'm still not convinced that he's scum. Would even go so far as to say slight town read... ya don't listen to this at all shoot the scum And which scum exactly would you propose we shoot then? All the people I proposed have a decent chance of flipping scum. those lurkers all have a decent chance to flip scum. Errr...wat? Hitting lurkers with Viggiies is the eliminate coin flips. Not probable scum. What I was getting at was wasting your time poking at non-responsive lurkers in-thread is a bad idea, and vigi shooting scummy lurkers is a good idea. Honestly. Not that difficult to understand. And zero inconsistencies…Also GK calls VE probably town and says to shoot him. This has been brought up before but yeah...GK=scum. I explained this. Honestly, of this long-ass 43-page post you made this is the only argument I feel is at all relevant. [i]And I’ve already explained it.Show nested quote +On November 29 2012 02:59 goodkarma wrote:On November 29 2012 02:45 Promethelax wrote:
-sniped-
if we don't get a lynch though we need to start that focus fire earlier. How confidant are you that we will get a lynch? (hint: I'm not at all) From the damage reports, I'm under the impression town has roughly 150 damage / turn at its disposal. From the flips, however, 600 HP seems to be a reasonable assumption for the amount of HP Toad has. (Following the mechanics of the actual game, I'd say he can't have any more than 999.) As such, I'd expect it to take at least 3-4 turns to kill him. And I [i]strongly believe we'll have a chance to lynch within 1-2 turns. and this, which as myself and others point out means he has some idea of the scum KP. Though it could be guesswork it could also be outside knowledge. If he wasn't already scummy as fuck this might not be a slip but with GK playing as he is I read this as a scum slip. I clearly explained that my knowledge was based off flips and damage reports in the fucking quote. Seriously, how dumb are you?In conclusion: GK is scum because of his flipping and flopping on Sandroba, Syllo and Djo without reason. GK is scum because of his attempts to direct blue actions. GK is scum because he has a twon read on people he wants to be shot GK is scum because he provides useless lists full of so many reads that he doesn't have any ideas of his own. GK is scum because he has knowledge of the scum kp. Sorry for how goddamn long this is. But eh, there wasn't much I could cut. It was all relevant. [/big]
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Hopefully that fully addresses Prox's case. Changing my quote for great justice:
Chrono Trigger Mafia: It isn't a Standard Game
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And as far as Prox's meta, I keep referencing that he's done this kind of thing before. Made a long-ass pants-on-head retarded case to get me (unsuccessfully) mislynched. He was town here by the way, so even when he's trying to work in town's best interest he pulls stunts like this...
Below is his case post from NMM XXII, for your reference. I just want to point this out: He is fully capable of making terrible cases of great length. I would like to encourage all of you to carefully go through the case he has presented, my responses and filter, and think for yourselves.:
+ Show Spoiler +On July 31 2012 18:33 Promethelax wrote:If I missed anything I'm really sorry, this took up 27 pages in word so I'm pretty sure I got it all but something may have slipped through my fingers. Here is my original case on Karma. Although he says it was thoughtless and without merit it still convinces me. Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 10:02 Promethelax wrote:SNIP On to a case on GoodKarma: We begin with this early assertation that lynching lurkers is not the best idea On July 27 2012 15:12 goodkarma wrote:
snippy snippy
I'm much more interested in seeking out those who have been somewhat active but haven't really said anything useful.
Or have been active about being inactive (e.g. I have to go to the donut store be back in 12 hours k thx bye). Not saying these claims can't be legit, but if the person isn't contributing anything when they're not afk, and using irl activities as a convenient excuse for remaining inactive, that's pretty scummy to me.
snip snip Karma wants us to look for guys who are somewhere in the middle, not lurking but not leading either. Okay, that seems reasonable, I don;t agree with his opinion but it is one that makes some sense as long as he sticks with it. On July 28 2012 08:08 goodkarma wrote:
I still would like to assert my opinion that removing lurkers from the game on day one is the most valuable play for town. Obviously, lurkers are hard to read. Mafia can easily hide as lurkers without any worry of slipping up. Meanwhile, day one, the most vocal people are sure to say some things that don't resonate quite right with the town. It is easy to start a lynch bandwagon on these people, while the lurkers sit back and provide no further information about themselves or their agendas. Lynch the vocal individuals day one, and you'll know just as little about the lurkers come day two.
-SNIP-
TL;DR:
My call to action:
Lurkers will perish
If you will follow my vote
aRyuujin you're first Oh...well. I guess he changed his mind based on...something? He follows this post with an assertion that lynching a green lurker is good for town which doesn't resonate well with me. Having one less townie is bad more townies is good. Having a pants-on-head retarded townie is still better than not having them, townies are the life blood of town our win-con is getting all the scum before they get us. We need townies alive so that MYLO and LYLO are postponed, even if the townies we have suck they are an asset to town. After Golbat flips our man Karma says this On July 30 2012 02:18 goodkarma wrote:
Just a small update:
I've finished reading through all the filters again, and have some new thoughts on who is scum. I have decided to follow the advice posted by alan and postpone discussion of those thoughts until day 2 begins in a few hours here. It seems everyone else is doing the same...
I would, however, like to make a few comments on the Golbat debacle. While Golbat certainly is to blame for not sticking up for himself, so is the town for voting him.
Very obvious, but one of the bigger issues I have with some people's current scum-hunting tactics is they think that scum just have to present in one or two very particular ways. And I will confess I have been guilty of this too...
Things like: Scum are sneaky. They hate to make coherant arguements against players. They love to slip up on statistics that don't really have much bearing on their arguements. They can only sit back and lurk (yeah, I was guilty of this one...).
Everyone plays scum a little differently, making finding them not a science but an art form. Looking back at the Golbat lynching, I couldn't help but notice that while he played badly, he did it consistently. There wasn't one "scumslip," or one particular bandwagon he was willing to ride. He was like, "I want to ride every bandwagon that presents any semblance of a case." I mentioned this too in passing, that he was either a bad town (for bandwagoning without thinking) or a bad mafia (for being so out in the open). But he wasn't afraid to change his mind. Repeatedly. And he did stick his neck out in getting behind cases, being only the second person to do so in something like 3 different spots... Mafia could do all these things, but I find it highly unlikely that they would, especially in a newbie game where I figure first-time Mafia would prefer to play more cautiously to avoid being exposed than to jump into the spotlight like that. In retrospec, and I know it doesn't mean much, but looking at how he was consistent in his terrible play and was completely unafraid to change his mind I don't see how he could have been anything but really bad town.
I encourage everyone, as they're making their new cases, to not have their "scum check-list." Try to show some empathy and really assess if a town could make the posts your suspect has made.
Anyway, my 2 cents. I'll catch up here in a few hours, once day 2 has begun. Someone who feels this strongly must have defended their read in the thread and actively worked to make sure such an obvious townie wasn't lynched. On July 29 2012 03:25 goodkarma wrote:I am going to change my vote, but first I'd like to explain a few things. Now is the time to get behind a lynch candidate, and that is the intention of this post. -SNIPPY- Since I'm still not 100% convinced that anyone is scum right now, I'm going to look at the worst case scenario. The person we lynch flips town. This makes the candidate for lynching much easier to choose. Golbat has flip-flopped on candidates several times. He seems content to try to form bandwaggons around candidates with what I consider to be a lack of satisfactory analysis of his own. This seems to be a general sentiment of several others voting for him, so I'll leave their well formulated analysis (which I mostly agree with) to stand in right now for why I'm behind this lynch. The one thing I want to add to the "Lynch Golbat" case is that even if he flips town, bandwaggoning is only going to hurt the town. Townies need to look through the arguements and think for themselves if we're going to have a shot at winning this. His multiple efforts to form bandwaggons around candidates along with his weak analysis indicates he's either a bad mafia or bad townie. If he's scum we're that much closer to winning. And if he's town: lynching a bad townie day one is still bad, but it should at least add clarity to town discussion, which is a good thing. Just very briefly, why not shady sands?: I feel that shady sands is still suspicious, mainly due to his misrepresented stats on day one lynches which he has tried to address. But he has provided some meaningful discussion for the town, and hasn't jumped on every bandwaggon he sees... I hope that everyone can get behind a candidate before the deadline. We're dangerously close to a no-lynch, and Golbat has done enough scummy things to deserve a vote. ##unvote aRyuujin##Vote GolbatPS: + Show Spoiler +I've kind of rushed this post due to deadline. If you find anything unclear please let me know... oh, I see, all those things which you totally knew were townie traits were scum traits when you swapped on to him but you weren't really sure he would flip mafia. This seems like scum trying to distance themselves from a mislynch and buy townie cred for having the 'right' read before the flip. That is what I have for now. I hope you all will look at my case on SS from yesterday as I still feel that he is scummy, with this new look at Karma though I think that he may be even scummier. Right now I am torn between these two for my vote; I know its still early but I want to lynch scum our Power Role (or scum incompetence) has bought us an extra day, I plan on not letting it go to waste. Since this case he has continued to play in a way that makes him seem scummy to me. IN this post which follows on the lack of NK he says Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 06:22 goodkarma wrote:ghost, you gave me such a heart attack lol. When I first read your post I thought I was dead... Great story though. Five stars  . which is odd given that he had been playing as if he was sure he would live to the morning and this is a really subtle way to say to people “I'm town too, I'm scared of dying” without coming out and saying that you are town. He follows that up with Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 07:58 goodkarma wrote:
Okay. I'm putting together my notes and writing my long-promised suspect list.
Wouldn't usually waste a post stating this, but one-line fluff posts seem to be all the rage.. -_- (MrMedic and Zorkmid...)
Tbh it shouldn't really matter exactly how no one died last night. Now that Golbat has flipped, and day two has begun, let's not waste any time getting our cases put together. where he adds fluff to the thread because it is “all the rage” he also talks about the lack of night kill in a way that reminds me of my MTG game where scum tried to both emphasize and ignore the lack of a night kill. (this second point is essentially a gut feeling). His case against me, now that I look at it more deeply is totally empty. Here it is. Show nested quote +On July 30 2012 14:53 goodkarma wrote:Please note: First, there are probably some format issues as I am not yet a pro at working with stupidly long posts. Some things aren't italicized that I meant to be, a few things aren't spoilered as heavily as I intended... But you're going to have to live with it. I'm sorry, but this has taken so long to put together I'm through with it right now. Feel free to pick it apart and analyze it as you see fit All the content should be there, even if the format isn't... And yes, I started calling Promethelax Prox. I'm that worn-out. Happy reading Also, the part to Ange was written long before Promethelax's case against me, which is why that part may feel a little out of context compared to the rest of the post. Also note: because this post took so long I might not have addressed something in the last couple hours or so. I will review this thread again and see if there's something I didn't address yet, possibly as late as tomorrow morning. I have been reading and re-reading threads, and assessing and reassessing my reads. Putting my thoughts together for this post has taken way longer than I thought it would... A quick note directly to Ange: Ange, I did notice your FoS, and have read through your arguements. I still strongly recommend you look through my thread closely. I have provided some analysis of other individuals, and will be doing much more analysis here. I adopted a controversial, not-so-well liked lurker lynching policy day one, which I would hardly call "blending in," as is one of your points of accusation. Please recognize (to use an analogy directly from a mafia guide) this isn't twitter. I don't feel the need to fend off an attack when I feel the points of the case made against me are defended by some of my prior postings. Please read what I have already posted about my thoughts on scum-hunting in general, and come back and tell me what you think. I feel I have clearly stated my day one objectives. Okay, off of my soapbox, and into my analysis: I will discuss the one person I feel I have a strong scum read on right now. Unfortunately, due to the time it took to put this together, the second person I originally planned will have to wait...: Prometheax is the first of these. I'm not trying to come into a position of OMGUS here, but it really feels like his arguments were poorly put together, as if he was going out of his way to try to find statements that condemn the current subject of scrutiny to put him in a better light. I find it interesting that instead of address directly Keir's suspicions about him he decides to go after me. It feels like a move that allows him to blend in, or (in other words) scummy. Let's start by looking at what Prometheax has to say about me. I will address his case against me and my scum read on him both at the same time. First, one small thing about your symantics: You call it "A case for Goodkarma." Why don't you call it "My case for Goodkarma?" You need to stand behind what you write. A minor point, but deserves +1 scum points in my mind. But onto the arguement, with my comments in italics: On July 30 2012 10:02 Promethelax wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Back, after the night deadline but still back. I feel really bad about the minimal amount of time I've been putting into this game. I would like to say I'm sorry to my fellow towines and you're welcome to all the scum players.
Keir: I /in'd this game even with limited time because I really like playing this game. I find joy in it and chose to play for that joy. I had more free time when I /in'd which was about six years before this game actually started as you may remember. I recently switched to night shifts and one of my co-workers in on vacation so I'm working fifty hours weeks mostly between dusk and dawn. I am trying to put real thoughts into my posts and give you something to work with, in all honesty I think the fact that you had me so pegged in XIX should help you here, keep an eye on me look deep into my filter whatever it is you want to do. Just know that town and I hope that my posting will prove that to you.
I was tunneling Shady because he is playing scummily. I am, as I write this, looking into other people and making a case or two.
I've been going back and forth in my head on the issue of where scum voted, I originally thought that Golbat couldn't have all the scum on him and than I started to think, it is day one so mislynching doesn't reflect too badly on you, bad day one reads are a fact to most players of mafia, TL mafia players don't believe in thinking through day one like any other day. But a no-lynch would be a problem for mafia, they need to kill us quickly so I was wondering about the last vote(s) on Golbat maybe a scum came over to hammer him, although as town I too would switch to ensure a lynch on d1. As such I'll be looking particularly closely at SS and Zork but am not entering their filters with the assumption that they are scum based on their votes.
I'd like to take a moment to laugh about this NK, that is 100% percent of my town games where there has been an unexplained lack of a night hit.
@(probably)The Medic: you da man. I just want to remind you that the Roleblocker might have blocked scum so you don't have a 100% green guy and RB, the medic might have saved so you don't have a 100% red guy. It isn't worth revealing yourself over this information, keep doing what you are doing and: thanks!
On Zork, I've just read through your filter and while I don't get any real scum vibes from you (besides hammering a vigi) I also don't get townie vibes. The most important thing a townie can do is prove themselves town. Make cases, your defense, while probably true that you are/were busy doesn't add anything to town just as the fact that I was working a lot adds nothing. Make some cases backed up with evidence and commit to some reads, if you are town this helps town and if you are scum this helps town since you have to appear town let me say this: if you continue without making a case I will view you as scum. Don't leave yourself so many outs; tell us what you think of somebody and why. On to a case on GoodKarma: We begin with this early assertation that lynching lurkers is not the best idea On July 27 2012 15:12 goodkarma wrote:
snippy snippy
I'm much more interested in seeking out those who have been somewhat active but haven't really said anything useful.
Or have been active about being inactive (e.g. I have to go to the donut store be back in 12 hours k thx bye). Not saying these claims can't be legit, but if the person isn't contributing anything when they're not afk, and using irl activities as a convenient excuse for remaining inactive, that's pretty scummy to me.
snip snip Karma wants us to look for guys who are somewhere in the middle, not lurking but not leading either. Okay, that seems reasonable, I don;t agree with his opinion but it is one that makes some sense as long as he sticks with it. So yes, this is by my definition "lurker." People who have been sitting around, post meaningless crap, and then go back to doing nothing. Unless you think I meant people who don't post at all, but I don't see how that's what you could think since those guys get modkilled. So, it would seem that I have been seeking the same type of policy lynch all day one. No surprises there...Regarding his quote below: Prometheax, why not the full quote? Oh wait, you're in it. Nothing too condemning, but interesting to note that back then you were sitting around, not posting much. Right now, you’re making your first big case. I don’t consider this suspicious in itself, but I do find it suspicious that you would deliberately “snip snip” omit yourself. And I’m no hypocrite. It’s spoilered for clarity:+ Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 15:12 goodkarma wrote:I'm hesitant to join the Mordanis lynch bandwagon. Mordanis's arguements were definitely incredibly flimsy, but I find it hard to believe that a mafia would stick his neck out that far when it seems many successful mafia are content to stick their heads in the sand. His opening statement indicates he desires to start a hunt for who's mafia: Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 07:43 Mordanis wrote:
Rather than sitting in a circle and deciding whom to lynch based on who sing "Kum ba yah, My Lord" the most off key (what kind of villainous scum would do such a thing?), I think its time to begin the scumhunt. Anyways, I apologize in advance if this seems somewhat rushed. I want to get the hunt going as early as possible, and I feel we've wasted the first hour and a half. So without further ado, here comes (hopefully) the first case of the game:
It's also worth noting he has not yet explicitly voted for who he accused. I don't feel we can find that guy with one flimsy lynch arguement and assume he's guilty, especially when it's the first arguement of the game. I don't see him having any investment in who's accused if he's really mafia, especially when most day one lynchings tend to hit town. I'm much more interested in seeking out those who have been somewhat active but haven't really said anything useful. Or have been active about being inactive (e.g. I have to go to the donut store be back in 12 hours k thx bye). Not saying these claims can't be legit, but if the person isn't contributing anything when they're not afk, and using irl activities as a convenient excuse for remaining inactive, that's pretty scummy to me. For these reasons, my top picks right now are: Ayruujin has had a minimal number of posts about very little. He's been lurking, and while people may disagree, I'm all for trying lurkers on day 1. We don't have a lot to go on, and it feels more probable to me that a lurker will turn mafia than someone who makes a stupid arguement and is jumping at the opportunity to get hanged. MrMedic, who's had plenty of posts that amount to nothing. He could be a bad town, but it also could mean mafia. Promethelax (to a far lesser degree), who's claiming an irl excuse. I understand irl commitments can keep us from doing fun things, but if it becomes a habit that keeps you from posting then you're on my suspect list. This is more of an example of what I consider a scummy play more than a suspect person. It's too early to tell here.As outlined above I consider Ayruujin suspect and am therefore voting for him. ##Vote AyruujinCould Mordanis be mafia? Most definitely. But as I've discussed above I feel that his play would be a poor one if he were really mafia. Ayruujin's lurking is more suspicious to me right now. On July 28 2012 08:08 goodkarma wrote:
I still would like to assert my opinion that removing lurkers from the game on day one is the most valuable play for town. Obviously, lurkers are hard to read. Mafia can easily hide as lurkers without any worry of slipping up. Meanwhile, day one, the most vocal people are sure to say some things that don't resonate quite right with the town. It is easy to start a lynch bandwagon on these people, while the lurkers sit back and provide no further information about themselves or their agendas. Lynch the vocal individuals day one, and you'll know just as little about the lurkers come day two.
-SNIP-
TL;DR:
My call to action:
Lurkers will perish
If you will follow my vote
aRyuujin you're first Oh...well. I guess he changed his mind based on...something? No I didn’t buddy. In this posting I’m still after lurkers. You’re making up something that just isn’t there...He follows this post with an assertion that lynching a green lurker is good for town which doesn't resonate well with me. Having one less townie is bad more townies is good. Having a pants-on-head retarded townie is still better than not having them, townies are the life blood of town our win-con is getting all the scum before they get us. We need townies alive so that MYLO and LYLO are postponed, even if the townies we have suck they are an asset to town. I said that establishing an environment of critical discussion is important, and to that end, lynching a lurker can provide some benefit to town. Nowhere did I say "let's kill our confirmed pants-on-head retarded townies." I want the "damning quote" from you here, as all I'm seeing is unsubstantiated speculation. After Golbat flips our man Karma says this On July 30 2012 02:18 goodkarma wrote:
Just a small update:
I've finished reading through all the filters again, and have some new thoughts on who is scum. I have decided to follow the advice posted by alan and postpone discussion of those thoughts until day 2 begins in a few hours here. It seems everyone else is doing the same...
I would, however, like to make a few comments on the Golbat debacle. While Golbat certainly is to blame for not sticking up for himself, so is the town for voting him.
Very obvious, but one of the bigger issues I have with some people's current scum-hunting tactics is they think that scum just have to present in one or two very particular ways. And I will confess I have been guilty of this too...
Things like: Scum are sneaky. They hate to make coherant arguements against players. They love to slip up on statistics that don't really have much bearing on their arguements. They can only sit back and lurk (yeah, I was guilty of this one...).
Everyone plays scum a little differently, making finding them not a science but an art form. Looking back at the Golbat lynching, I couldn't help but notice that while he played badly, he did it consistently. There wasn't one "scumslip," or one particular bandwagon he was willing to ride. He was like, "I want to ride every bandwagon that presents any semblance of a case." I mentioned this too in passing, that he was either a bad town (for bandwagoning without thinking) or a bad mafia (for being so out in the open). But he wasn't afraid to change his mind. Repeatedly. And he did stick his neck out in getting behind cases, being only the second person to do so in something like 3 different spots... Mafia could do all these things, but I find it highly unlikely that they would, especially in a newbie game where I figure first-time Mafia would prefer to play more cautiously to avoid being exposed than to jump into the spotlight like that. In retrospec, and I know it doesn't mean much, but looking at how he was consistent in his terrible play and was completely unafraid to change his mind I don't see how he could have been anything but really bad town.
I encourage everyone, as they're making their new cases, to not have their "scum check-list." Try to show some empathy and really assess if a town could make the posts your suspect has made.
Anyway, my 2 cents. I'll catch up here in a few hours, once day 2 has begun. Someone who feels this strongly must have defended their read in the thread and actively worked to make sure such an obvious townie wasn't lynched. On July 29 2012 03:25 goodkarma wrote:I am going to change my vote, but first I'd like to explain a few things. Now is the time to get behind a lynch candidate, and that is the intention of this post. -SNIPPY- Since I'm still not 100% convinced that anyone is scum right now, I'm going to look at the worst case scenario. The person we lynch flips town. This makes the candidate for lynching much easier to choose. Golbat has flip-flopped on candidates several times. He seems content to try to form bandwaggons around candidates with what I consider to be a lack of satisfactory analysis of his own. This seems to be a general sentiment of several others voting for him, so I'll leave their well formulated analysis (which I mostly agree with) to stand in right now for why I'm behind this lynch. The one thing I want to add to the "Lynch Golbat" case is that even if he flips town, bandwaggoning is only going to hurt the town. Townies need to look through the arguements and think for themselves if we're going to have a shot at winning this. His multiple efforts to form bandwaggons around candidates along with his weak analysis indicates he's either a bad mafia or bad townie. If he's scum we're that much closer to winning. And if he's town: lynching a bad townie day one is still bad, but it should at least add clarity to town discussion, which is a good thing. Just very briefly, why not shady sands?: I feel that shady sands is still suspicious, mainly due to his misrepresented stats on day one lynches which he has tried to address. But he has provided some meaningful discussion for the town, and hasn't jumped on every bandwaggon he sees... I hope that everyone can get behind a candidate before the deadline. We're dangerously close to a no-lynch, and Golbat has done enough scummy things to deserve a vote. ##unvote aRyuujin##Vote GolbatPS: + Show Spoiler +I've kind of rushed this post due to deadline. If you find anything unclear please let me know... oh, I see, all those things which you totally knew were townie traits were scum traits when you swapped on to him but you weren't really sure he would flip mafia. This seems like scum trying to distance themselves from a mislynch and buy townie cred for having the 'right' read before the flip. When you claim I “knew he would flip town,” you missed two very important words in that post: IN RETROSPECT. That post you are quoting is my attempt to put some light on how town can go about scum-hunting so that we don’t have another lynch like Golbat. It was a reassessment of what got him lynched and my stance on him. It wasn’t some “I told you so but didn’t stand by my convictions” post. Try to put yourself in your suspect’s shoes, and see if their actions make sense if they are town. I would say that a serious reassessment of how we hunt for scum would fit for a town. I don’t claim credit for knowing Golbat is town anywhere in that post. You either have serious issues reading, or you are desperately trying to find something that sticks to get town points.That is what I have for now. I hope you all will look at my case on SS from yesterday as I still feel that he is scummy, with this new look at Karma though I think that he may be even scummier. Right now I am torn between these two for my vote; I know its still early but I want to lynch scum our Power Role (or scum incompetence) has bought us an extra day, I plan on not letting it go to waste. This isn’t completely out of the blue. I originally had you on my list of suspects. And that is for this one post, another which you seem to have selectively forgotten: On July 29 2012 23:18 Promethelax wrote:On July 29 2012 00:39 Keirathi wrote:@Promethelax Really? You were gone for 14 hours and that's all you have to comment on? What are your current feelings on my Golbat case? Mordanis? goodkarma?What about people like aRyuujin who was getting some heat as well? I don't understand how "townie" Promethelax can be a worse player than the scum Promethelax I played with in XIX.
Shady SandsThe main argument against him seems to be him saying + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 20:39 Shady Sands wrote:
1) He flips red, in which case we've gotten a D1 red lynch which puts us in the 75% win range
2) He flips green or blue, in which case Mordanis will be under quite a bit of pressure. . I maintain that this kind of connection theory isn't in and of itself alignment indicative. For instance, from my last game (I Can't Believe Its Not Themed [non-newbie game]) + Show Spoiler +On July 18 2012 08:10 Risen wrote:
Why should we not lynch you? Your flip gives us so much information. If you're scum Mattchew is in a rough spot, if you're town scib/Keir are pretty much dead men (unless mason claim) . This was said by our COP. My only grief with what Shady said is that it's a bit too early in the game, and any hard connection theories are purely speculation until a flip. He gets some townie points back though for his active scumhunting. I dunno if he's been right or not, but he has what no one else has had yet this game: conviction. He lays out his reads without caring what other people think of them. He's pushed cases on Mordanis and Golbat that for the most part had solid reasoning based on fact and logic rather than WIFOM. Honestly, I find the townie points in his filter to outweigh his scummy points, and therefor I would be highly against with lynching Shady today. There are just flat-out better candidates imo. As to your points I can't argue that I am not playing as well as I was when I knew everyone's alignment. I have to play blind which is not easy for me, I'm working on figuring out what I think of people and Shady is, in my opinion, the most scummy of players in this game. I didn't comment on Golbat/Mordanis because I think the whole thing between them is dumb. They seem (to me) to be two guys going at each others throats with a whole lot of vigor but very little proof. No cases on either of them have been convincing to me, I will look over yours again though with the no bias instead of my: ignore these nubs bias. I commented on what I had time to comment on. I don't have as much free time as I did when XIX was going on which is why you are seeing the drop in my play. ah, just read the day post. I guess I'll re-read looking at Golbat as one of us. I'm sorry I wasn't here near the end of day 1 to push Shady since pretty much anyone would have been better than a town vigi. I still feel that Shady is the most scummy player thus far but haven't yet had time to do more than a first read through the thread. I worked a 13 hour shift and I'm dead tired. I'm putting this into the thread now so that I can make sure my reads are in the thread in case I die tonight. I will be awake before the night deadline tomorrow to post again in case I feel the need to get more reads into the thread. Keir: talk to me about your thoughts on other people now that Golbat has flipped green. What connections do you see? Who is the scummiest player to you now and why? On July 29 2012 14:39 Shady Sands wrote:On July 29 2012 13:19 Obvious.660 wrote:
In regards to my activity, should be able to pick it up by Monday if I haven't been decimated. Going for quality over quantity til the wedding stuff (not my wedding) is finished. (double spacing to keep things grouped) Weird, why didn't he mention he had a wedding to attend in any of his earlier posts in the thread? This seems like a pretty strange after-the-fact excuse for any strange patterns of activity. One thing that is important for everyone in town to start watching for now is activity patterns and posting patterns. Scum will tend to post with an identifiable ringleader and others following in their footsteps... and they will often all make excuses about IRL commitments to assuage any doubts about odd patterns in their collective posting histories. This seems like a pile of horse shit to me. Obvious is a null read for me, I'm not defending him at all. (anyone who knows they will have things that will eat into their game time should claim it, seriously) Shady really wants us to think that having to go to a wedding is a scum tell though. That is at least as silly as people saying that I am lurking while I'm at work. I could be lying about that I guess but why would I? I like playing this game which is why I signed up for it and, when I'm around, I play it like crazy. On July 29 2012 07:57 goodkarma wrote:On July 29 2012 06:56 MrMedic wrote:
I am back, I am very sorry I was unexpecditatly very busy. But now my sechdule is free. Welcome back. Since you skipped out on the vote, I think it's only fair you give us an update on who you feel is scummy and why. I've read through some of your posting history, and understand that what you've been posting to date is fairly consistent with how you've posted with other threads in the past. I feel I may have come down a bit hard on you earlier with your first attempt at real analysis. I just want to ask you not to feel discouraged, and encourage you to give it another try . This is a newbie game after all, and we're all still trying to figure out how to play this game. And regarding some general questions about a few of my actions, most of it I feel I've already covered in prior posts and will not repeat myself here. There is, however, one point that I would like to discuss a little further. And that is why I selectively set out after aRyuujin. I laid out a few other "lurkers," including people such as MrMedic, Obvious, and Zorkmid. So why did I only set after aRyuujin? It had to do with two factors: 1) posting history and general activity outside this thread 2) writing style and post readability Why aRyuujin sticks out here: 1) I will confess I was a little more whimsical in choosing him on this point than I should have been. I remember looking at one of his posts that was two hours later in another thread than his last mafia post and going "Why didn't he post again in the mafia thread? He still hasn't contributed anything..." But in retrospect, I stand by my decision. Stylistically he doesn't always use haiku in his posts. This choice could have been intentional, so it warranted further investigation. 2) Obviously, haikus obfuscated everything he posted, hiding any real chance at reading his intentions. I may have come across as some madman who wanted to lynch only on policy and not on other qualities but there is some method to my madness. It's been brought up that I should have gone after all of them. The problem with that is that I only have one vote. It would be kind of meaningless to pressure all the people on my "lurker list," as they could just sit there and be like "my bad." You pressure one of them with a vote and you can get a real response, as was the case with aRyuujin. With the day passed, and our first flip, I plan on making a rather lengthy analysis thread on top suspects. I promise to have it before night ends, but don't expect to see it for several hours. Talking about that shit is again the rules (I'm pretty sure). Keep your head down dude, we can only refer to posts outside the thread for 1) Meta and 2) nothing else. I'm quite pleased that he isn;t posting in Haiku though and I feel that stopping is a townie trait since he could have continued to post in a way that was annoying to some but not enough to get him lynched (in my opinion, I would have fought hard, assuming I was here, against a lynch based on being annoyed by his posting style) and hidden or obscured his thoughts; changing his style seems townie to me but he (super super WIFOM here) have read MTG mini 1 where Marv says almost the same thing about Mattchew and decided to replicate the strategy so, while it puts him in my green column it isn't very far in. I'll post again in an hour or so before the sleep madness takes over. Here, he tells me that looking into aRyuujin’s posting history is “illegal,” even though nowhere can I find anything that tells me it is. From looking into aRyuujin’s posting history, I inferred he had some time to make posts of higher quality than the “lurk-quality” type posts he’s put out. I’m under the impression that Prox didn’t want me probing into his own. It is my understanding this type of analysis is not against the rules, and until I’m informed it is I’m going to follow up on it. Prox has similar type patterns in one or two places. The time gaps are a little small, but given his experience in this game I am certain that if he wanted to he could have diverted the time from posting in other threads into this one to make some more analytical posts of at the quality we’ve seen today. That is my guess as to why I got this kind of reply from him, and I’m only making this statement based on his reply. Upon a cursory look at the time gaps, they seem small enough I would have thought nothing of them and moved on, except that he brought it up as something I should never pursue again. Honestly this wasn’t enough alone to make me think of him as a prime suspect, but combined with his flimsy case for me (or should I say “a” flimsy case for me) I have put him close to the top of my list. And then there was this, which gave him the first place prize: On July 30 2012 10:20 Promethelax wrote:On July 30 2012 10:15 Keirathi wrote:On July 30 2012 10:02 Promethelax wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Back, after the night deadline but still back. I feel really bad about the minimal amount of time I've been putting into this game. I would like to say I'm sorry to my fellow towines and you're welcome to all the scum players. Keir: I /in'd this game even with limited time because I really like playing this game. I find joy in it and chose to play for that joy. I had more free time when I /in'd which was about six years before this game actually started as you may remember. I recently switched to night shifts and one of my co-workers in on vacation so I'm working fifty hours weeks mostly between dusk and dawn. I am trying to put real thoughts into my posts and give you something to work with, in all honesty I think the fact that you had me so pegged in XIX should help you here, keep an eye on me look deep into my filter whatever it is you want to do. Just know that town and I hope that my posting will prove that to you. I was tunneling Shady because he is playing scummily. I am, as I write this, looking into other people and making a case or two. I've been going back and forth in my head on the issue of where scum voted, I originally thought that Golbat couldn't have all the scum on him and than I started to think, it is day one so mislynching doesn't reflect too badly on you, bad day one reads are a fact to most players of mafia, TL mafia players don't believe in thinking through day one like any other day. But a no-lynch would be a problem for mafia, they need to kill us quickly so I was wondering about the last vote(s) on Golbat maybe a scum came over to hammer him, although as town I too would switch to ensure a lynch on d1. As such I'll be looking particularly closely at SS and Zork but am not entering their filters with the assumption that they are scum based on their votes. I'd like to take a moment to laugh about this NK, that is 100% percent of my town games where there has been an unexplained lack of a night hit. @(probably)The Medic: you da man. I just want to remind you that the Roleblocker might have blocked scum so you don't have a 100% green guy and RB, the medic might have saved so you don't have a 100% red guy. It isn't worth revealing yourself over this information, keep doing what you are doing and: thanks! On Zork, I've just read through your filter and while I don't get any real scum vibes from you (besides hammering a vigi) I also don't get townie vibes. The most important thing a townie can do is prove themselves town. Make cases, your defense, while probably true that you are/were busy doesn't add anything to town just as the fact that I was working a lot adds nothing. Make some cases backed up with evidence and commit to some reads, if you are town this helps town and if you are scum this helps town since you have to appear town let me say this: if you continue without making a case I will view you as scum. Don't leave yourself so many outs; tell us what you think of somebody and why. On to a case on GoodKarma: We begin with this early assertation that lynching lurkers is not the best idea On July 27 2012 15:12 goodkarma wrote:
snippy snippy
I'm much more interested in seeking out those who have been somewhat active but haven't really said anything useful.
Or have been active about being inactive (e.g. I have to go to the donut store be back in 12 hours k thx bye). Not saying these claims can't be legit, but if the person isn't contributing anything when they're not afk, and using irl activities as a convenient excuse for remaining inactive, that's pretty scummy to me.
snip snip Karma wants us to look for guys who are somewhere in the middle, not lurking but not leading either. Okay, that seems reasonable, I don;t agree with his opinion but it is one that makes some sense as long as he sticks with it. On July 28 2012 08:08 goodkarma wrote:
I still would like to assert my opinion that removing lurkers from the game on day one is the most valuable play for town. Obviously, lurkers are hard to read. Mafia can easily hide as lurkers without any worry of slipping up. Meanwhile, day one, the most vocal people are sure to say some things that don't resonate quite right with the town. It is easy to start a lynch bandwagon on these people, while the lurkers sit back and provide no further information about themselves or their agendas. Lynch the vocal individuals day one, and you'll know just as little about the lurkers come day two.
-SNIP-
TL;DR:
My call to action:
Lurkers will perish
If you will follow my vote
aRyuujin you're first Oh...well. I guess he changed his mind based on...something? He follows this post with an assertion that lynching a green lurker is good for town which doesn't resonate well with me. Having one less townie is bad more townies is good. Having a pants-on-head retarded townie is still better than not having them, townies are the life blood of town our win-con is getting all the scum before they get us. We need townies alive so that MYLO and LYLO are postponed, even if the townies we have suck they are an asset to town. After Golbat flips our man Karma says this On July 30 2012 02:18 goodkarma wrote:
Just a small update:
I've finished reading through all the filters again, and have some new thoughts on who is scum. I have decided to follow the advice posted by alan and postpone discussion of those thoughts until day 2 begins in a few hours here. It seems everyone else is doing the same...
I would, however, like to make a few comments on the Golbat debacle. While Golbat certainly is to blame for not sticking up for himself, so is the town for voting him.
Very obvious, but one of the bigger issues I have with some people's current scum-hunting tactics is they think that scum just have to present in one or two very particular ways. And I will confess I have been guilty of this too...
Things like: Scum are sneaky. They hate to make coherant arguements against players. They love to slip up on statistics that don't really have much bearing on their arguements. They can only sit back and lurk (yeah, I was guilty of this one...).
Everyone plays scum a little differently, making finding them not a science but an art form. Looking back at the Golbat lynching, I couldn't help but notice that while he played badly, he did it consistently. There wasn't one "scumslip," or one particular bandwagon he was willing to ride. He was like, "I want to ride every bandwagon that presents any semblance of a case." I mentioned this too in passing, that he was either a bad town (for bandwagoning without thinking) or a bad mafia (for being so out in the open). But he wasn't afraid to change his mind. Repeatedly. And he did stick his neck out in getting behind cases, being only the second person to do so in something like 3 different spots... Mafia could do all these things, but I find it highly unlikely that they would, especially in a newbie game where I figure first-time Mafia would prefer to play more cautiously to avoid being exposed than to jump into the spotlight like that. In retrospec, and I know it doesn't mean much, but looking at how he was consistent in his terrible play and was completely unafraid to change his mind I don't see how he could have been anything but really bad town.
I encourage everyone, as they're making their new cases, to not have their "scum check-list." Try to show some empathy and really assess if a town could make the posts your suspect has made.
Anyway, my 2 cents. I'll catch up here in a few hours, once day 2 has begun. Someone who feels this strongly must have defended their read in the thread and actively worked to make sure such an obvious townie wasn't lynched. On July 29 2012 03:25 goodkarma wrote:I am going to change my vote, but first I'd like to explain a few things. Now is the time to get behind a lynch candidate, and that is the intention of this post. -SNIPPY- Since I'm still not 100% convinced that anyone is scum right now, I'm going to look at the worst case scenario. The person we lynch flips town. This makes the candidate for lynching much easier to choose. Golbat has flip-flopped on candidates several times. He seems content to try to form bandwaggons around candidates with what I consider to be a lack of satisfactory analysis of his own. This seems to be a general sentiment of several others voting for him, so I'll leave their well formulated analysis (which I mostly agree with) to stand in right now for why I'm behind this lynch. The one thing I want to add to the "Lynch Golbat" case is that even if he flips town, bandwaggoning is only going to hurt the town. Townies need to look through the arguements and think for themselves if we're going to have a shot at winning this. His multiple efforts to form bandwaggons around candidates along with his weak analysis indicates he's either a bad mafia or bad townie. If he's scum we're that much closer to winning. And if he's town: lynching a bad townie day one is still bad, but it should at least add clarity to town discussion, which is a good thing. Just very briefly, why not shady sands?: I feel that shady sands is still suspicious, mainly due to his misrepresented stats on day one lynches which he has tried to address. But he has provided some meaningful discussion for the town, and hasn't jumped on every bandwaggon he sees... I hope that everyone can get behind a candidate before the deadline. We're dangerously close to a no-lynch, and Golbat has done enough scummy things to deserve a vote. ##unvote aRyuujin##Vote GolbatPS: + Show Spoiler +I've kind of rushed this post due to deadline. If you find anything unclear please let me know... oh, I see, all those things which you totally knew were townie traits were scum traits when you swapped on to him but you weren't really sure he would flip mafia. This seems like scum trying to distance themselves from a mislynch and buy townie cred for having the 'right' read before the flip. That is what I have for now. I hope you all will look at my case on SS from yesterday as I still feel that he is scummy, with this new look at Karma though I think that he may be even scummier. Right now I am torn between these two for my vote; I know its still early but I want to lynch scum our Power Role (or scum incompetence) has bought us an extra day, I plan on not letting it go to waste. Thank you. A well-reasoned and convincing argument like I know you are capable of. I've definitely had some suspicions of Karma, and this makes me more wary of him going forward. On July 30 2012 10:07 Zorkmid wrote:
Sorry, you're right.
Apologies for the tone of last post. DON'T LET IT HAPPEN AGAIN! No, I'm kidding. I understand this game can be extremely frustrating when you feel like your back is against the wall. Just work on proving your innocence through your future actions. Look bud, I want to be able to trust you. You are the player in this game that I respect the most. Give me some cases to work with that I know YOU are capable of. You are good at being town, prove to me that you are town so that we can have a town circle ( town line, lol) and some town beers or wahtever it is that townies do. I'm new at this not being red (or retardedly worse than everyone else) thing. Who are your biggest scum reads right now and why. Can you say “town” enough times? It’s clear here that you feel your first large-content post has gained you trust and “townie-points” with others here. You make a power play here when you introduce the idea of the “town line.” It is certainly good for us clear each other from suspicion, and have those we can trust. But he’s just basically gone from in the background to into the forefront in a very short period of time. What motivated the change of pace? I understand this is the weekend and he has been very busy and tired during the week. Okay. But from this post it looks to me like he is trying to wedge himself into a position as a “town leader” while there’s still time for him this weekend.
First, why I don’t feel anyone trying to establish themselves as a “town leader” is a good thing. It encourages town to follow a few prevailing cases like sheep. That puts the town into the position of hoping that their leaders aren’t mafia. If they are then mafia wins. Prox has already made such a play as mafia in the past, and I see no reason he couldn’t be trying to do the same thing here. What town really needs to have a shot at this is a very vocal populace producing a variety of different opinions and arguments based off their own observations and best reads. Pushing for a town leadership this openly and abruptly simply isn’t pro-town.
Even if he were of the belief that an established town leadership is a good thing, how is it he would think as a townie that it is a good idea for him to step forward as a leader when with his “limited time” he can’t put in the time needed to present arguments (except maybe on weekends)? It just doesn’t make sense to me. Something doesn’t add up here.
I have spent way too long typing this up. I look forward to hearing Prox’s response. His sudden change of behavior, along with some of the things he’s had to say, leaves him as my top suspect. I might come back to check up on this thread yet tonight, but I’m not typing any more involved posts like this today… sorry. That being said, you can look forward to more involved posts like this as we progress through this game . I know it is obscenely long don't worry. It is easy to simplify. There are three points. 1 the use of 'a' instead of 'my' 2 I told him not to do something that is actually against the rules 3 my overuse of the word town and 4 OMGUSOMGUSOMGUS seriously that is the entirety of his case against me. The only point which might be valid is the third but it was a joke (one I now regret obviously) since saying I was pro-town without being pro-town was how Kier had caught me in XIX. I honestly thought the use of town beers and a town line instead of town circle made it really obvious it was a joke. I should have known there were secret Romanians on TL Mafia. So karma: out of those three points one is pants-on-head, one is semantics and one is me being dumb enough to joke around. Where is this case you don't think I can respond to. You have talked about my posting habits as a possible fourth point but I can't do anything about that. I'm here while I am home and awake and that will continue until town wins or I am lynched/nk'd He follows all of this up with a decent case against the same lurker he wanted to lynch d1. Cases against semi-lurkers are the easiest to make as mafia and tunneling one player gives you an easy out when you are wrong about anything else. This play continues to read as scum to me and, therefore, ## Vote: Karma
His line of logic in that case, as well as this one, seems to revolve around what he feels looks scummy rather than what is in fact scum-motivated. In addition, looking at some of the accusations he makes I seriously question how closely he looks at filters before firing accusations. This is why I am so disappointed... Honestly, I expected better of him by now...
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Now I will post a few "closing remarks." That is not to say I won't be back here to answer questions, but this should help put things in perspective:
1) My actions day one some people may have trouble with. I spent a significant amount of time discussing game mechanics. Get over it. This isn't a standard game, and it is 100% relevant to have some working knowledge of how the game works established up-front...
2) I had a town read on Sandroba early game. It evolved into a scum read by vote time. I have clearly explained the how and why. It's up to you if you believe me. But keep this in mind: Why would I as scum feel compelled to include him in my party early game? Wouldn't it make more sense that I would have tried to distance myself from him from the outset? This is what I've done in my scum games... More or less not even interact with my scum buddies...
Further, I have explained my motivation for running for party leader was tied to setting up openness about who would be in party leaders' parties. I didn't care if I won, which is why I had no problem including Sandroba early game when he was a town read for me.
3) The list post, while normally bad, is fine in this setup. This isn't a standard game. Feel free to hate it all you want, but it is a sensible thing to do when establishing town (in addition to finding scum) is also important to winning.
4) My actions on SnB I've already explained. Ask yourself why, as scum, I wouldn't just push an SnB case anyway. Anyone with any common sense would know that doubling back in the way I did would attract a ton of attention. I was less inhibited, not drunk. There is a difference, and what I did was generally rational. However, I wasn't putting my thoughts together as I normally do and just spouted what came to mind on paper...
Whether or not you believe me is up to you. But as scum, I would have to be really dumb to do what I did here. You could argue the same as town, I suppose. But if you were to look at this game and compare against my scum games you would notice another thing: I am actually trying to actively participate. This is my town game, and if you were to stop and look you should be able to get a town read from this. I would never do anything this reckless as scum. Honestly, as scum I probably just wouldn't have posted at all...
5) I was not super-responsive to the failed party because from my perspective it is super-obvious that Acro affected the outcome. Even if others had suspicions of me, it should have been super-obvious to them that this was a good possibility. Yet everyone seems to overlook this outcome...
6) I would have to be pants-on-head retarded as scum to target CaveJohnson. How could anyone here believe any differently? And as of right now, still no one has counter claimed the damage I did to him.
7) My vigi shot can be used repeatedly. I can still claim my shots in Mason QT without scum knowing what's coming, and can verify my claim accordingly...
8) Feel free to include me in a party with 3 "confirmed town." As town without any kind of "low success modifier" role flavor, the party will succeed.
Those are the main points that come to mind. If there's anything else that you think of let me know.
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On November 29 2012 22:49 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2012 22:27 goodkarma wrote:
<snip>
This is why I am so disappointed... Honestly, I expected better of him by now... You know, I don't understand you making comments like this after addressing everything in his case. If his case was so terrible wouldn't everyone agree with you, and you wouldn't have to address it? Your disappointment seems forced. I don't see why you're so insistent on bringing up a case prome made on your 6 months ago in a newbie mafia game, and compare it to this case now, other than to be able to say hey look guys, these situations are similar on the surface and I was town then, so I must be town now! If you were town you would've just said: Prome your case is rather bad because XYZ and then move on. Instead you were kicking and screaming on the floor all night, and now that you've finally addressed the entirety of his case you are suddenly disappointed.
How would I "force" disappointment when he has done the exact same kind of thing the last time I've played a game with him and roled town?
And clearly town shouldn't fight back when someone makes a strong push to try and get them mislynched. Yes, that was sarcasm...
If there's a particular point you feel has merit in Prox's case that I haven't addressed fully provide it to me. Otherwise, all you're doing is speculating, and there's nothing I can do for you.
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On November 29 2012 21:50 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2012 15:09 goodkarma wrote:
Well, I'm done for today I'll check back tomorrow. Repeating your same arguements and me repeating what I've already said in response over and over isn't going to get us anywhere.
There's a few things you could do to validate my claim.:
1) I already claimed my target in Mason QT. Wait until tomorrow to see if my claim checks out.
2) Bring me along in a party with three "confirmed town." If you can fail a mission and still get a lynch, clearly the consequences aren't that terribad... And what's more, I'm town so you won't even have to worry about that in the first place...
3) Continue to angrily OMGUS me, waste vigi shots and/or a lynch, and be down one more town. Having a claim that is verifiable, this is a very stupid option. Point 1: your vigi claim is neither here nor there. Sandro's flip proves scum has role-based KP powers. That means scum could equally well claim a vig hit. Especially on a dubious target like Drazerk. You saying scum has no reason to hit Drazerk? I beg to differ. SnB+me really really really wanted Drazerk dead in Caller game. Now that may have been a bit of a personal vendetta, but Drazerk has proven to be OP in themed games regardless of his alignment. He acts like a complete idiot (he isn't one, just acts that way) and plays the game as if it is his personal playground. As scum, the motivation to kill him is pretty much the same as town's: he is thoroughly unpredictable and that can be pretty scary. Point 2: I don't know what you're using to support this conclusion. We had 2 party selections before the lynch. We succeeded in one and failed the other. We now have a "hidden lynch". It makes me suspect effects like pardoner and doublevoters are in the game, and these effects might have been outted explicitly in a votecount, but not in its current format. I would NOT conclude that we get a lynch regardless. Other than the possibility for lynch-tampering mechanics I fail to see the problem of the lack of a votecount. Sure, it's a bit of a hassle, but as long as everybody has to vote in the voting thread, we can all keep tabs on what's happening. So... taking GK along on a party and running the risk of a failed party (note that I still have not delved into his filter, so the only info I have to go on is my null read from D2 and my rough impressions as I was reading the thread since then)? Bad idea. Same as taking me along D3 was a bad idea. I honestly have no clue what my HSM is. Greymist left the possibility open that I count for scum. The "I count for 0"-possibility was also left open. I said not to take me because we don't know what it takes to succeed at an event and I want town to succeed. With Keirathi (low success modifier) and me (potentially 0 or negative success modifier) both on the party, it is possible that GK is town and just shit-outta-luck, but I see no reason to take him on another party and possibly have that one fail as well. @GK: I am still going to go through your filter, but I don't recall ever bumping on something you wrote and thinking "damn, GK is town", while there have been plenty of red flags. Does that point directly to scum? No. However, it definitely does not point to town. Step it up. When 3rd party players are looking more townie than you, you're either doing it wrong or are scum. Prove to us it's the former rather than the latter.
Point 1: Why would scum focus any KP whatsoever on him when he isn't amongst the "confirmed town" that are being brought in parties??? This makes no sense to me...
Point 2: Speculation on game mechanics... This gets us nowhere.
And regarding your question:
This is a valid point. I will be trying my best to get out some scum cases in the near future. I really can't provide any good excuses, so I won't...
My vigi role claim should provide some proof that I'm town. In an ideal world, I would have shown I'm town by playing much better than I have. But the prevailing theme this game seems to claim blue actions or be on a successful party and become confirmed town, and I have no problem going along with it (however "cheap" it may feel)...
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On November 30 2012 02:39 phagga wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2012 02:29 Hopeless1der wrote:On November 30 2012 02:26 phagga wrote:
Switching to keirathi and Gk for safety reasons
##Unvote
##Lynch: Goodkarma
##Party leader: Keirathi What about having oats keir syllo dieno clarity perform our split votes (And only those 5)? At least can we set a fixed number for number of votes to switch in case of hidden vote shenanigans? As i indicated, I hope that more than 3 or 4 votes shouldbe enough to be on the safe side. Keir and GK have both 2 votes currently, so 1 or 2 more players should be enough IMO.
I will have an updated set of reads ready by late this evening... I fully expect no one will take them seriously, and will scrutinize them to determine new and creative ways to push a mislynch on me. I claimed a confirmable role, and I told you that I can still vigi subsequent cycles. So even if you were to distrust my original claim, it should be possible to confirm me in subsequent cycles. That I'm pretty much the only proposed alternative makes little sense to me. I know that to this point I haven't played very well, and I can understand how people would feel I'm scum, but I have a confirmable role... Weird.
Honestly, I have no problem being lynched, if that's what it will take for tonight's reads to be taken seriously. I will bestow you with the best I can provide tonight, and hope for the best...
Allow me to help move things along:
##Party Leader: Keirathi
##Lynch: Goodkarma
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Listed below is a more detailed list post. Included are all my reads, including my top scum suspects.:
Clarity, Oatsmaster, Dienosore, Keirathi, Syllogism: “Confirmed town…”
TheChronicler: believable claim, a sincerity that leads me to believe he's town...
Toad – Scum, obviously.
Z-Boson – Lurky, about to be replaced. From what I’ve seen of his game, he plays much more wishy-washy as scum and tries moreso to “blend in” than give definitive reads. Then again, this was in (I think?) his first newbie game (NMM XXIV). Whatever the case, I know that his play has evolved significantly since then, and that if he was scum his play would be possibly craftier. But I do like his closing list post. I would lean towards a (slight) town read on him at this present point in the game. We will know more after his replacement (hopefully) does a better job of being active. + Show Spoiler +(And as a side note, I’m a little sad I couldn’t play a full game with Z-Bo… Playing with him in NMM XXIV was a blast )
Kitaman – For being a strong town player, he doesn’t seem to be dedicating much effort into playing this game. Honestly, does anyone NOT think he’s 3rd party yet? His most recent post about Acro though does raise my eyebrows quite high though… Why does he take such a sudden interest in Acro??? Is it because he has to get him lynched as a 3rd party objective? Heavy speculation I know, but the thought crossed my mind… I mean it’s not as though Kita’s done much of anything all game to help us… Just as he’s pushing for Acro to full claim, I’d propose that it’s important for him to full claim, for the same reasons he listed for Acro.
CaveJohnson – Ridiculously anti-town, lies constantly about his abilities, but hard to read because of the consistency with which he does it… That pretty much sums up his play… That he claimed to damage Toad with some super-powerful OP ability doesn’t mean he’s town… I’d say if Acro were to claim his HP, maybe there could be some means of determining if his claim were even plausible after Toad’s flip. But really even that is speculative, as Acro isn’t someone who we know we can trust presently… As it stands, there’s really not much we can do with him. He’s not a strong lynch prospect, but I’m still not against him being a decent vigi prospect. Even then, though, I don’t feel he’s the best priority right now. This is different than my stance before. Details below:
While making this list post, I’ve thought of it this way: I am of the belief that CaveJohnson would be just as likely to be playing this way as scum or town. So how I look at it it’s a (assuming 5-member scumteam) 5/25 (20%) chance he’s scum from the outset. It could be the case but it’s inherently unlikely… As such, there are better vigi targets.
Hapa – I honestly don’t know what to make of this healing situation. Firstly, I don’t see how town or scum would be likely to damage Hapa. Secondly, I don’t see what Hapa would have to gain by lying about either being damaged or healed… And this I believe to be the major point: even if he were scum, why would he have any reason whatsoever to lie about being damaged or healed? Pity points, I guess??? I see zero motive for doing so, and as such I believe Hapa’s damage and (lack of) healing claims. The circumstances for them may be unclear, but in the absence of motive there’s really no reason I can see to not believe Hapa.
Regarding Hapa’s play in general: It’s undeniably “off” from the town Hapa I remember that tunnel drills scum to death. But then again, I see clearly pro-town qualities to his play. He is providing scum reads and doing + Show Spoiler + decent scumhunting. I was disappointed to see how little people considered his case on phagga, as I believe it does a decent job showing how phagga should be a top scum suspect, and a person who should be further investigated. It helps too that he “sticks his neck out” on persons such as myself, who definitely is on several people’s vigi-kill/lynch wish list right now… This is something scum don’t typically do.
I’m not 100% familiar with his scum play but from what I’ve seen from a couple of games where he’s played scum (Mario mini, liquid city), he takes on a more informal tone in his posts and is a bit more trolly. He has a more serious tone this game, and while I would not consider this alone a reason to call him town, it is something else worth considering. I would love to see a game where he played scum well, as I find it hard to believe he got a “well-respected scum game” from these two games… All in all, I have a town read on him.
Iamperfection – Players such as him are incredibly hard for me to read… In fact the only thing I can really say from what I’ve tried to gather from his meta is that he is super-spammy as town (in Mario mini) and a less spammy as scum (NMM XIX, GSL mini don’t remember the number). As it stands, I’m trying to sift through a sea of one-liners to find posts of substance. I clearly recall in the early game, he had a really ridiculous “You know I’m town, right?” remark that Acro hammered him for. While I really didn’t feel it was productive, given how he plays I couldn’t call that alignment indicative. As it stands, he does seem to be showing what I consider to be genuine interest in the game (with intermittent non-sequitor remarks…), asking relevant questions to try to peg scum. I would like to see more “case” posting from him, but I’m not holding my breath… Leaning town.
Prox – There’s a certain zeal with which he pushed his cases when we first played together as town in NMM XXII. Not saying that our play hasn’t evolved since then, but I do find it incredibly hard to believe that, however bad, as scum he could be bothered to write up a 43-page case against someone (me). I guess it could be he really really hates me … But I’d assume it’s more plausible that he’s passionate about finding scum this game. And that’s not the kind of passion you typically find from scum. I’ve taken a chance to look at his scum game in NMM XIX, and it’s also notable that he is far lurkier that game. 18 pages’ activity, however, in his filter presently this game, and there’s definitely some substantial scumhunting in there. I’d say that’s at least some indication that he cares. Add to that that he has a plausible roleclaim that I’m inclined to believe. I have a town read on him.
Hopeless – At this point I’m having a bit of writer’s block mulling through everything… But I can say this: Hopeless tends to play a far lurkier game as scum. Also the effort he puts into defending himself and the transparency with which he’s explained his scummy actions (such as lack of scumhunting) I find to be town characteristics. I have a slight town read on him. Although if he is to convince others he isn’t scum, it would be a good idea for him to pick up on the scumhunting…
risk.nuke – This seems to be a favorite topic of a few people here for a potential lynch. He definitely hasn’t been very useful for town, and his scumhunting is rather lacking, but I’m not convinced that makes him scum. A large part of my town read on him is his roleclaim in mason QT. He was incredibly indignant about how reserved I was with communicating with him, and as he came to understand it was uncertain his claim implied he was town I felt he was genuine in how he came across.
Another reason I believe risk is that I have never seen a setup where masons are scum aligned. And honestly, from a logistical standpoint it would make little sense as it’s a power that really wouldn’t help scum much at all. And from this perspective, I find it unlikely that he is lying. I am rather thankful that he was given the mason role, as I will admit that from his filter it would be very easy to mislynch him.
And lastly, I am unsure as to the full line of reasoning for why he chose me the first cycle. I will, however, say that I find it believable that as town you would bring in the person you vote for party leader, as that’s clearly one of your town reads. He definitely could have used his role differently (as a way to try to confirm and vigi kill scum reads), but he didn’t. Traditionally, a mason wouldn’t have a vigi kill power, and I could understand how he would not think to use his role in what is (arguably) the stronger way of confirming and killing scum… I have a town read on risk.
Djo – I really should have given his scum game more credit. I didn’t realize until looking at Mario Mini that he had a formidable scum game. However, I still have a town read on him. He had been eager every step of the way to get himself established as town. Even now, when it would be suicidal as scum to be elected to a party, he’s excited for the opportunity. I simply don’t see scum doing that, as being the weak link that fails the party at this point in the game means certain detection and death.
Adam – I really don’t like the way he’s played this game. And the only scum game I could find he lurked until he got modkilled, which really doesn’t tell me much of anything… He shows an active interest in the game, asking reasonable questions, but his only “case” seems to be on Z-Boson who he seems bent on tunneling. I remember a person or two commenting on how it was inaccurate he was spending most his time tunneling Z-Boson as it was only something like two posts. But looking at his sparse filter, they are the two-three posts of the most substance. He made one or two comments about Sandroba for his lynch, but beyond that, all he’s given us is Z-Boson is a prime scum candidate and no one else really is… Tunneling is something both scum and town do. However, Z-Boson is an easy target that has had lurker issues similar to Adam. Imho, it’s a bit scummy to only focus on Z-Boson, even after he’s said he’s getting replaced… All that being said, I have a null read on Adam. Outside of Z-Boson, he has generally acted pro-town and nothing else appears to be scummy.
Acro – Has generally acted pro-town, and has claimed 3rd party. Kita, however, has brought up the good point that we have no idea of Acro’s win condition or if he can be trusted. Unlike Kita, the most peculiar thing I’ve found about Acro is how actively invested he seems to be as 3rd party. This doesn’t make sense to me, unless if he wins with town. And if he really is 3rd party, he should have a different win condition of some kind… It doesn’t quite add up for me. He genuinely seems to be trying, and I can’t quite figure out why. He needs to roleclaim if town is to trust that he is an asset and not a liability going further into this game. I also have not ruled out the possibility that the reason he is so proactive after claiming 3rd party is that he actually is scum. Nothing that I can presently find tips me towards distrusting he’s third party, but it’s in the back of my mind…
My Scum Reads:
Sorry that this section isn’t longer and more detailed. I may elaborate more at a later point in time if people demand a “definitive case.” What makes them top suspects is that almost everyone else’s alignment I have deduced as discussed above. Combined with the scummy behavior they exhibit, I believe they have a very strong chance of flipping red.
1) phagga – I like Hapa’s case on him. Phagga has indeed been “playing it safe, and has not been aggressive with pursuing his reads. It’s the kind of laziness and indifference I’d expect of scum. His defense to Hapa’s case was short and sweet and unconvincing too imho. I’m not going to go into much more detail right now other than to say this: Hapa’s case has merit. Maybe you guys should actually take some time to pay attention to it… Perhaps he hasn’t been “red checked” like Toad, and he hasn’t outright said he’s scum, but his play is consistent with what I’d expect from scum. By process of elimination, he is a top scum suspect that needs to be further investigated for next lynch.
2) strongandbig – I jumped the gun on this case before. I looked into his filter and I noticed that he had a pronounced difference in his post count between this game and his town meta. Then I saw that he had excuses for his absences, and that he was genuinely busy. He has definitely “blended in,” taking no stances I would consider brave or new. And while he has excuses, he still has been pretty lurky, and this does match his scum meta. Also, two things I consider possible scumslips:
“phagga is probably town, but I'm not confident enough to agree with putting him on a party yet.”
This remark has been referenced before, but this is something I don’t see a townie motivation for saying. There’s a pronounced difference between “probably town” and “maybe town.” You vote in your strong town reads, so this doesn’t quite add up to me… It’s at the very least an odd statement if phagga were to be lynched and flip town, but I would argue it would be a damning statement if phagga were to be lynched and flip scum.
Another thing that was odd to me was that he was pissed about the 100 points of damage he took. How could you be mad about this when it’s pretty clear that you’re a decent lurker shot? Not clearly scum motivated by any means, but still it felt a little odd to me since only scum needs to worry about surviving as long as possible.
3) VE – Has pretty much only lurked until recently. Has recently pushed a case on me. Scolds Prox for making a case on why I was scummy rather than about my motivations then does the same with his own. He has done absolutely nothing to demonstrate that he is town, and further, pointing out scummy actions rather than scum motivated ones on town players is a commonplace play for scum. I have ruled out almost everyone else from this list as either town or third party. That only leaves lurkers for this third spot… VE fits the bill of a scummy lurker, and should be considered for lynch after phagga and strong. Some might say something like, “But he’s only been active a short time give him time…” And I’m not opposed to that. He will have some time to attempt to prove he’s town as phagga and strong are first on the chopping block. By far my weakest scum read, but a scum read nonetheless.
3, alternate 1) CaveJohnson as I described before is a very hard one to read since he is so consistently anti-town. However, he belongs on this list as he very well could be scum for reasons already described.
3, alternate 2) Adam could be scum. He’s a null read lurker for me atm...
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My reads above btw
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A Quick Note About RoleClaims:
Scum should be scared of roleclaiming this game. By fakeclaiming a role with so many blue powers out against them they are running a respectable risk of being spotted. Even with a claim that exactly matches their real abilities, they might be found out using their abilities on targets that wouldn’t make sense from a town perspective. There might be a “reward” of greater trust to help curtail that risk, but still, claiming a role only draws attention and scrutiny. Something scum doesn’t want in this game… As such, I am FAR more trusting of the roleclaims that have been brought forward than several of the people here (most notably syllo).
Quick note about Post Count:
I know some of my reads have some dependence on “post count.” I am fully aware this is not THE indicator that someone is scum, and that scum can be quite active. However, I’ve tried to make comparisons between people’s scum and town games where I can to see if there’s a difference in activity. I believe this is a decent method to get some indication of alignment.
A quick note about syllo
His laziness and lack of interest in the game presently leaves me a little concerned about his alignment, although I still think he’s town. Just as a warning: Don’t rule out a Godfather-type mechanic that makes him have a high rather than negative success modifier in parties…
In General:
My play has been bad. If you want townie motivation, one reason is because I’m not the greatest fan of trying that hard without any prospect of a lynch and a sure scum already lined up when such a lynch occurs… I even said such a thing in the mason QT… Further, I enjoy using an elimination-based approach to finding scum since townie players can act scummy just as scum can. Combined with looking for scum motivation, I’d like to think my reads become reasonably accurate by this point in the game… Less-so early game, which is also why I’m a bit lazy about it…
Also, mislynching me won’t help town any + Show Spoiler +(and syllo won’t carry me T.T)
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That is all. I will be more than happy to address any questions you guys have. I'm a little burned right now from writing all that but if I don't get to it tonight I will definitely get to it before lynch time tomorrow.
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EPT
