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On November 25 2012 18:38 Clarity_nl wrote: I disagree with that argument Djo because our medic roles also have an easier time deciding who to protect. This.
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Anyways, sleep time. Be back in ~8 hours.
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On November 26 2012 02:18 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 02:14 marvellosity wrote: Djodref, it's likely with the way HP works that mafia would be able to go no kills near the start, and multiple kills as the game goes on.
I did have a townish read on Acro until his not wanting to be in the party shenannies. @marvWhen I look as my table with the different damage claims for today, I could say that the mafia went for a Dieno kill. Could you help me to assess iamp alignment ? iamp isn't acting anything like his town meta, and I agree with you that no rational town player would have healed him. But its possible there are other explanations, so it doesn't damn him to being scum.
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On November 26 2012 02:31 risk.nuke wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 02:19 marvellosity wrote:On November 26 2012 02:18 risk.nuke wrote: Sadly people never listen to me and always end up being scolded for it in the postgame. Especially setup speculation which along with actionbehaviour is my backyard. I always listen to you, I just don't let anyone know. Shh! On a serious matter, if you think Chronicledude is town and telling the truth, why don't you think Toad is necessarily scum? Yes but generally people assume I have extra knowledge and this is how they tend to react (pickyourpoison) And CJ has the right of it. If acro is 1-shot he should had claimed immediately. And he did not push toad very hard. While I would normally agree with this, since today isn't a lynch day and we can do nothing about Toad today, I don't think its unreasonable to think he would have waited until tomorrow.
In fact, I would have expected both of them to wait until tomorrow. THAT'S what I find weird.
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On November 26 2012 02:36 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 02:05 risk.nuke wrote: Toad did not seem nailed as scum to me. I'll reread Acros actions after Cycle2. That doesn't sound like your super convinced toad is scum =\ What you quoted was in response to a question from Djo. It made sense in context, but if you're just looking through risk's filter, I guess you could take it as that.
He said this a bit before though:
On November 26 2012 00:04 risk.nuke wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 23:56 Djodref wrote:
Toad is 99% scum
For toad to be town, it would take - Acro's case against him to be mislead
- TheChronicler lying or Toad framed/bussed during the first cycle
- Acro's lying or Toad framed/bussed during the second cycle
- Town Toad to hide the fact that he needs votes cast on him every cycle
- Town Toad to act like a mafia player
On a side note, I think that Hopeless is likely to be his scum partner and that Toad really need to have vote cast on him at each cycle. The robot claim was the fakeclaim associated to his role, I would say. Okay, I guess that everybody would agree on this one already, so that wasn't my main point.
How do we handle him ?
I think the safest way would be to roleblock him until we can kill him during the day. I think that night actions directed towards him are likely to be redirected via busses by the mafia team or 3rd party players. Does anybody has an idea about how we could safely get rid of him instead of using a lynch ? Toad is definitely scum. Two players claiming copchecks. And sandroba had the framebus and he was roleblocked (unless he lied). As to your question, there is no failsafe way to kill him except dayvigs/lynch.
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My problem with Chronicler's claim is: Why the hell did he check Sandro and Toad against each other? Shouldn't he have picked one obvious townie, and one suspicious person? Picking two suspicious people doesn't make any sense, because until one of them flips, you don't know anything about either of them.
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On November 26 2012 02:49 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 02:48 Keirathi wrote: My problem with Chronicler's claim is: Why the hell did he check Sandro and Toad against each other? Shouldn't he have picked one obvious townie, and one suspicious person? Picking two suspicious people doesn't make any sense, because until one of them flips, you don't know anything about either of them. He picked those two because one of them was going to flip. Thereby immediately confirming the other person's alignment (assuming no tampering) He picked them night 1. Before we even knew we were going to have a lynch day.
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On November 26 2012 02:52 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 02:51 Keirathi wrote:On November 26 2012 02:49 Clarity_nl wrote:On November 26 2012 02:48 Keirathi wrote: My problem with Chronicler's claim is: Why the hell did he check Sandro and Toad against each other? Shouldn't he have picked one obvious townie, and one suspicious person? Picking two suspicious people doesn't make any sense, because until one of them flips, you don't know anything about either of them. He picked those two because one of them was going to flip. Thereby immediately confirming the other person's alignment (assuming no tampering) He picked them night 1. Before we even knew we were going to have a lynch day. My mistake. So many claimed night actions I should go make a list before I open my mouth again. I still don't think they're bad choices even for N1 though. Sandro was under scrutiny near the end of that cycle. Yea, but that's my point. He checked Sandro against TOAD? Why? What purpose did that serve? Why not against Dieno, the claimed Frog? Or against syllo, the person calling sandro scum and the direct counterwagon to sandro's leadership?
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On November 26 2012 03:01 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 03:00 marvellosity wrote:On November 26 2012 02:55 Keirathi wrote:On November 26 2012 02:52 Clarity_nl wrote:On November 26 2012 02:51 Keirathi wrote:On November 26 2012 02:49 Clarity_nl wrote:On November 26 2012 02:48 Keirathi wrote: My problem with Chronicler's claim is: Why the hell did he check Sandro and Toad against each other? Shouldn't he have picked one obvious townie, and one suspicious person? Picking two suspicious people doesn't make any sense, because until one of them flips, you don't know anything about either of them. He picked those two because one of them was going to flip. Thereby immediately confirming the other person's alignment (assuming no tampering) He picked them night 1. Before we even knew we were going to have a lynch day. My mistake. So many claimed night actions I should go make a list before I open my mouth again. I still don't think they're bad choices even for N1 though. Sandro was under scrutiny near the end of that cycle. Yea, but that's my point. He checked Sandro against TOAD? Why? What purpose did that serve? Why not against Dieno, the claimed Frog? Or against syllo, the person calling sandro scum and the direct counterwagon to sandro's leadership? I agree with you absolutely that it's a weird check. However, people often handle their roles in extremely weird, and blatantly suboptimal, ways. Let me be devils advocate for a minute. Is it possible he just had a feeling about Toad and since it looked like Sandro would be lynched the following day it would be an easy way to check out Toad? Yes, it's possible.
But, imagine for a minute that you are a Parity Cop. You check two people, and your result tells you that they are the same alignment. Even for mildly suspicious people, its a stretch to believe that you investigated two scum. The most likely (probability wise) explanation is that you checked two townies.
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On November 26 2012 03:21 syllogism wrote: I think those may potentially affect mission success, but in the end best and most likely design is based primarily on mafia being included in the team. I do not think a mission can fail if there is no mafia included; that kind of hidden mechanics are simply not fun. The only possible, and still unfun, exception I can see would be some kind of one-shot mafia ability, but I think they would have used that on n1.
In fact, I think the speculation revolving around whether we should include claimed characters or players with matching time period flavor is also misguided (dienosore and oats should be included because they were on a successful day 1 mission, although the roles do not hurt).
So, in short, ignore hp/roles, unless the claims themselves make someone more likely to be town. I'm not sure I totally agree with that part.
I am a 600 AD character, and therefore me being in the party night 1 granted me some useful bonuses. Dieno said he had a bonus night 1 that increased party chance of success (I believe?). The bonuses are generally pretty useful, I think.
I'm not necessarily saying that we should always have someone claim the time period so that we can put them intot he group, but I see no reason to not put someone that we have a town read on AND its their time period into the group, just for the bonuses.
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On November 26 2012 03:27 risk.nuke wrote: You made no argument, you simply rephrased what I said as an evil plot to exclude you from the party. We have no ideas how easy/hard it is to win a mission. Right now the general assumption is just that if one party member is mafia the party fails. But that doesn't make sense because then HMS would be useless. No it's not useless.
For instance, I think the probable scenario is something like this:
Normal Townies: 100 HMS High HMS Townies: 250 HMS Low HMS Townies: 40 HMS Normal Mafia: -300 HMS
When the mission starts, if the total HMS value of the group is > 0, the event is successful.
(These are obviously just made up numbers. Just an example for context.)
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On November 26 2012 03:31 Dienosore wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 03:27 risk.nuke wrote: Right now the general assumption is just that if one party member is mafia the party fails. But that doesn't make sense because then HSM would be useless. I thought the general assumption was that my hidden modifier was boosted due to matching my role with the correct time period, enough so that I could potentially carry even if scum was on the team. Does your role PM say anything about it being boosted if you're in the party during your era?
Mine doesn't, although I do get other bonuses when I'm in the party during my era.
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On November 26 2012 03:55 TheChronicler wrote: I don't. Was kind of hoping someone had the ability to give ne gold or it was an event reward. Another reason I want on the team. So your ability costs gold. But you haven't gained any gold, nor do you know how to, but you got to use it? :o
I'm confused.
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On November 26 2012 06:49 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 02:38 Keirathi wrote: While I would normally agree with this, since today isn't a lynch day and we can do nothing about Toad today, I don't think its unreasonable to think he would have waited until tomorrow.
In fact, I would have expected both of them to wait until tomorrow. THAT'S what I find weird. there is town kp flying around. Why not make people aware of scum in our midst? I don't get this at all Keir. While we don't have a lynch we do have other abilities which we can use to eliminate scum players. I guess you have a point. I wasn't really thinking about town abilities like kush had that can just flat-out kill someone. I can't really imagine there are a ton of those floating around though.
But, things like Robo's 50 damage per night, or a town ability that does 200 damage, or whatever would be pointless to use on someone like Toad. I mean, I only have 3 reference points (mine, kush's, and sandro's), but those kind of abilities aren't likely to result in a kill. Therefore when we lynch scum, all the damage we did to him before he gets lynched is just wasted abilities.
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EBWOP: Oh just noticed I forgot to re-vote last night.
##Vote: Oatsmaster
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On November 26 2012 07:31 phagga wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 07:29 Promethelax wrote:On November 26 2012 07:27 phagga wrote: Ok, I've updated my read on GK and I would no longer lynch him. When the D2 lynch came to a close, he asked people to consolidate on either sandroba or Toad. He tried to shut down any discussion that would bring in new candidates. considering that Sandro is confirmed scum and Toad is very very likely scum, I don't see the mafia motivation behind is behaviour.
also, the way he acts D3 seems more pro-town than on the first day. All in all, I put GK on null for the moment. he tried to get us to consolidate on one of two scum players and you are null on him? I'm confused. Why? Scum would benefit in this situation when the thread derails/new candidates are brought forths, so I don't see the scum motivation in doing what GK did. Yes, I believe he is saying "how is doing that a null read, rather than a town read?"
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On November 26 2012 07:47 Hassybaby wrote: No seriously, when's the voting supposed to end? ~24 hours.
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On November 26 2012 07:52 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 07:47 Hassybaby wrote: No seriously, when's the voting supposed to end? @8:00 kst tomorrow, almost exactly 24 hours So, so slow.
I kid, I kid
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On November 26 2012 09:06 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 09:04 Promethelax wrote:On November 26 2012 09:02 marvellosity wrote:On November 26 2012 08:53 Promethelax wrote:On November 26 2012 08:48 marvellosity wrote:On November 26 2012 08:46 Promethelax wrote:On November 26 2012 08:45 marvellosity wrote:On November 26 2012 08:39 Z-BosoN wrote:On November 26 2012 08:36 Clarity_nl wrote:On November 26 2012 08:35 Z-BosoN wrote: [quote]
Clarity you are not understanding a thing I say. Sand was bussed. Evidence of this is the fact that Toad, who is almost confirmed scum, voted for him.
My point is I don't see what you're getting at, like at all. You asked marv is sand was bussed and he said "probably by some" So what's your point? You are pissing me off. Read the last three pages, ffs. I'm having issues with phagga's town read on GK, in which he implies that it's unlikely scum bussed sand in the way that a scum gk would have done, to which I disagree. yeah generally you two need to stop arguing about it because you're probably on the same page really the nub of it is that phagga is saying that given toad is very likely to be scum too, GK would be unlikely to be trying to make the vote between sand and toad, although I don't necessarily subscribe to this for the reason I said somewhat earlier (it was likely sandroba was going to die, so it's an easy opportunity just to bus other team-mates casually) Do you agree with Hopeless about on of him/Zbo/Acro being scum and his reasoning and what do you think of Acro and his contradiction? I don't feel that strongly about Hopeless' point. At some point sandroba was 100% getting lynched and so it would have been easy to get on his wagon. With Acro do you mean regarding being on the party / kei thing? that is what I mean about Acro. Yes. Looking back at Acro's filter I saw him attack Kei for his knowledge about his hidden success number, but I can't find him directly criticising him for saying it wasn't a great idea he wouldn't come with the party. If he did so please quote it because I missed it. Presuming Toad is scum for the moment, for Acro to be scum we'd have to get around the fact that Acro was the first one to really heavily accuse Toad of being scum and attack him for it. There seems to be very little need for a bus of that sort in that situation. I think third party makes more sense, with a pro-town win con. maybe a survivor? Not that Acro was disagreeing with the conclusion he just seemed to have doubted the claim that Kier could know the lowness of his success value. That's a reasonable doubt imo, given the OP states the number is hidden, and my role PM says nothing about my hidden success number. Overall I think town makes the most sense but I really want to know why he's so eager not to be brought on the mission. The issue isn't whether it's reasonable to doubt my claim. You'll notice that I didn't jump on him for questioning me about it when he first asked the question.
The issue is that TODAY, he's been saying it wouldn't be a good idea to take him to the party. The insinuation is that he, himself, has some kind of modifier to party success today. Which makes him questioning me about it on day 1 fishy as fuck.
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On November 26 2012 09:31 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 09:29 Promethelax wrote:On November 26 2012 09:28 marvellosity wrote:On November 26 2012 09:25 Promethelax wrote:On November 26 2012 09:19 marvellosity wrote:On November 26 2012 09:09 Promethelax wrote:On November 26 2012 09:06 marvellosity wrote:On November 26 2012 09:04 Promethelax wrote:On November 26 2012 09:02 marvellosity wrote:On November 26 2012 08:53 Promethelax wrote: [quote]
that is what I mean about Acro. Yes. Looking back at Acro's filter I saw him attack Kei for his knowledge about his hidden success number, but I can't find him directly criticising him for saying it wasn't a great idea he wouldn't come with the party. If he did so please quote it because I missed it. Presuming Toad is scum for the moment, for Acro to be scum we'd have to get around the fact that Acro was the first one to really heavily accuse Toad of being scum and attack him for it. There seems to be very little need for a bus of that sort in that situation. I think third party makes more sense, with a pro-town win con. maybe a survivor? Not that Acro was disagreeing with the conclusion he just seemed to have doubted the claim that Kier could know the lowness of his success value. That's a reasonable doubt imo, given the OP states the number is hidden, and my role PM says nothing about my hidden success number. Overall I think town makes the most sense but I really want to know why he's so eager not to be brought on the mission. Okay. Thanks for the read. Who do you think is the most likely scum after Toad (or instead of Toad); if you had a vig power who would you hit? Not sure. Someone in my 'not really done anything to make me think he's town' list. There are people on borderline I'd have to filter to make a call too. goodkarma/Adam/VE are in the not done anything to make me think he's town list. kita's in some space i'm not sure of. borderline players are people like hapa, Z-bo, iamp You're also in a special place as syllo thinks you're scum atm and I love me some syllo sheeping. I'd need to hear more from him on that though. do you think Syllo has a valid point on why I am scum? My 'fake claim' . And out of Adam/VE/GK is there a reason you'd pick one over the others or just a shot into the player who have done nothing? I don't understand his points on you very well and some of it is based on setup speculation that i don't think is necessarily true ("this looks like a mafia ability"). It could be a fake-claim, it could not, meh. Out of those 3 I'd put Adam 3rd. Also I didn't say they'd done nothing, I said they hadn't done anything to make me think they were town, there's a difference. If I was a vigilante I'd probably shoot VE for his and Bio's combined lack of content, whereas at least GK is posting. thanks and thanks. Do you think a ~5 man mafia team makes sense? If so do you think that there is a third party? I'm assuming both are true but I'd like some input. I'm assuming 3rd party because of the OP. 5 man mafia team would make the most sense numbers-wise (if this were a normal i'd absolutely expect 5), but because of the setup it could be skewed one way or another, it's pretty hard to tell. Really? I would have expected 6, if this were a normal game. I thought 3:1 ratio was the norm.
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