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Nice to play with you again Toadesstern  . There were a few things you mentioned I would like to briefly touch up on and then I'm really going to bed...
On November 21 2012 17:09 Toadesstern wrote:This Keirathi guy is mafia. Not because of what he's saying but because of what he's failing to provide: Reasoning as to why he'd post what he did so far. There's simply no reason to get out here and tell people he's planning to heavily focus on reading one guy. Best case scenario is him being pointless, worst case scenario is him trying to look good by providing "something" while actually being pointless. I'd say we've got someone who's trying to get a cheap backdoor exit early on. That being said I plan on becomming leader d1. Vote for me please :3I plan on sending people I trust to be town. Especially my townreads are pretty awesome and I have an easy time picking up townreads early on so I'd say this job is the right job for me. That being said I will not send people some kind of "majority" thinks I should send. I will send people I myself consider to be town and nothing else. That probably sounds stupid to those people who are new to this game but that's how these things are going. Don't listen to people telling you they will listen to some majority-decided group they will nominate if they get to be leader. Vote for someone who's willing and comfortable enough to make a decision on his own instead of trying to dodge the responsibility but wants to be leader for whatever reason nonetheless. I know it sounds awesome to have people telling you that your voice will be heard and everyone can hold hands and decide on the group together but that's just meaningless smooth-talk. You've got your vote. You vote for the leader, not more and not less. Everything else is in the hand of the guy in charge. That's how you influence this outcome and it's enough. More than that just makes it way to likely for people to be influenced. I will obviously only vote for someone I trust to be able to get good reads d1 himself in combination with a townread on said guy (duh). Having someone who's just going to roll a dice to determine who's going on the mission is not going to help us and let's face it, there's people who are at face value with rolling a dice, at least on d1. Vote me pretty please!
What you're saying here seems perfectly reasonable to me. However, I still feel it's important that you provide your candidates you wish to bring to the party before people make a vote for you. We can't just vote for you because you're a vet that will perform well for us if you're town...
On November 21 2012 17:13 Toadesstern wrote:
Oh and I forgot: Yeah we need to find someone to send d1 and that's all nice and fine but I don't think it's a good way to keep the talk all focused on only that.
Faking townreads as mafias is incredibly easy. Faking mafiareads as mafia is something that takes effort. If we're only going to talk about who we're going to send d1 we're giving mafia an incredibly easy time skating by.
I know it feels counterintuitive as clearly the shortterm "goal" is to send a good guy d1 but I think we should try and balance those issues out. After all, the goal in the longrun is to figure people out and we won't be able to do that by playing nice all day long.
This is a very interesting point. But keep in mind that since lynching at the very least isn't commonplace, it might be possible for scum to deliberately bus themselves even early to gain some town credit and not get hurt that badly. Like maybe they spend their scumhunting time repeatedly picking on hypothetical scumperson A for half the game until he finally gets lynched. They go out looking townie, and don't have to worry about getting lynched again for a very long time... I'm still not convinced that focusing on lynchings as the primary means for town victory is best in this setup.
Also, while faking scumreads on town is the standard task for scum in normal games, I'm thinking that faking townreads on scum as scum is going to be their focus this game. It will be easier for them to "blend in" doing this perhaps, but it should still be possible to find them, especially when a particular event outcome goes poorly. I still see this as the inverse of a normal game, where townreads are the priority. Scumreads may follow based on an unexpected vote.outcome to some extent, but only insofar as knowing whose opinions can be most trusted.for selecting the next party leader.
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On November 21 2012 23:29 Oatsmaster wrote:
LOL why would you say that the case is good?
Marv, goodkarma, other people who were in this thread a moment ago.
I would like your opinons on this case?
Clarity has not been very helpful to town thus far, if that's what you were getting at in your case.
In a standard game, it would certainly be a bit disconcerting that he has picked easy targets and "safe" conversation points for discussion, but at present I would say this covers the majority of people. In fact, your case ironically is only the third scum case of the game...
In this particular game it would seem that people are putting more time presently into determining who their leader should be than determining who's scum. Whether this is right or wrong is a fair point of debate, but as it currently stands Clarity does not stand out to me as scum. I definitely don't like his play to date, but I consider him presently a null read.
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On November 21 2012 22:50 sandroba wrote:
I wouldn't mind syllo being leader either and if I win I will give him veto power over the people I choose. I'm fairly certain he is town at this point.
I found this particular quote to be upsetting. I understand, on the one hand, if you have a town read on syllo. But I don't understand why you would be willing to go so far as to allow him to veto your picks. If you're not that confident in your choices, you should as well just have him pick for you... Or better yet, let him be party leader.
As current "frontrunner" I would like a response from you on this scandal. Are you looking to concede and have syllo run in your stead, or was this merely an assertion that you are super-confident syllo is town?
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On November 21 2012 23:56 iamperfection wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 23:54 goodkarma wrote:On November 21 2012 23:29 Oatsmaster wrote:
LOL why would you say that the case is good?
Marv, goodkarma, other people who were in this thread a moment ago.
I would like your opinons on this case? Clarity has not been very helpful to town thus far, if that's what you were getting at in your case. In a standard game, it would certainly be a bit disconcerting that he has picked easy targets and "safe" conversation points for discussion, but at present I would say this covers the majority of people. In fact, your case ironically is only the third scum case of the game... In this particular game it would seem that people are putting more time presently into determining who their leader should be than determining who's scum. Whether this is right or wrong is a fair point of debate, but as it currently stands Clarity does not stand out to me as scum. I definitely don't like his play to date, but I consider him presently a null read. i disagree We act like a normal game hunt the scum that way easier to pick up who is town. Nominate those people for the team.
To date there hasn't been that much scumhunting. I've already argued to death with Toad about the approach that should be taken in this game. Let's just agree we should both town and scumhunt and leave it at that...
For me, I am going to take a process of elimination type approach for this particular game. That will help me to focus on who is town and why for party selection. Then, by extension, those I can't confirm as town will be my prime scum suspects.
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On November 22 2012 00:07 Clarity_nl wrote:
Goodkarma do you still believe we should be focusing on townhunting until there is a possibility to lynch?
-snip-
At the very least, I believe we should townhunt until we have chosen a party leader. If we argue who is scum, while working towards choosing who is town for our party, I fear we'll get a bit overwhelmed. Scumhunting very well might derail conversations for party selection, and townhunting might derail scumhunting discussions...
I am a strong supporter of establishing scum by process of elimination this game for that reason, and this is the approach I plan on taking as I just discussed in my last post.
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On November 22 2012 00:18 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2012 00:15 goodkarma wrote:On November 22 2012 00:07 Clarity_nl wrote:
Goodkarma do you still believe we should be focusing on townhunting until there is a possibility to lynch?
-snip-
At the very least, I believe we should townhunt until we have chosen a party leader. If we argue who is scum, while working towards choosing who is town for our party, I fear we'll get a bit overwhelmed. Scumhunting very well might derail conversations for party selection, and townhunting might derail scumhunting discussions... I am a strong supporter of establishing scum by process of elimination this game for that reason, and this is the approach I plan on taking as I just discussed in my last post. What do you think about this: We want to consolidate on who to elect rather quickly, or at least narrow the field significantly. Once we've done that everyone but the elected person can go scumhunting, people end up finding town when they scumhunt anyway. As long as the elected person is transparent about his reads and choices, we can simply read his analysis rather than have 20 people make their own.
When we've consolidated on someone, by all means let's scumhunt.
Regarding the current party leader election:
Despite my early support of his election, I would like to see from sandroba more discussion of his likely running mates before I place my vote on him, as well as some discussion on his syllo comment.
You can also expect a more detailed discussion of who I would have in my party if I were to be elected when I return early this evening. I propose we move the election field down to two candidates in the near future. I will position myself as the alternative to sandroba, unless if the case arises that a serious contender appears, in which case I will concede to help expedite consolidation. + Show Spoiler +(Or live on as the third party candidate that no one had better vote for. Take your pick.)
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My current thoughts on party leader:
So... It would seem that syllo has yet to make any additional moves, and sandoba, while back, hasn't really made that much of an additional comment on his party he's taking with him.
Firstly, sandroba has now made it clear that he strongly believes syllo to be town. I do not have the "meta" read priveleges that he does, and as such, cannot make this read. Yet, at this point I would go so far as to say that sandroba has put so much faith into syllo that a vote for either is semi-interchangable. Between the two of them, I see one party leader ticket. I don't have presently a town read on syllo, and so am less comfortable voting for Sandroba than I previously was.
Sandroba, who was someone I was very excited about having as party leader with his solid early ideas for how to select his party, also has yet to provide some idea of who he's considering at present for his party. This is another point that makes me less comfortable voting Sandroba. I'm still leaning towards sandroba being town, but I question why it is he has become fairly quiet relative to the beginning of the game.
So, in Summary...:
While many here give Sandroba/Syllo respect for being a "vet," it's incredibly hard for me to sort through a sea of one-liners and go, "That guy is definitely town..." Actually, insert Marv's name here too as he's guiltiest of this...
My Current Plan:
I will be reassessing my reads by going back through everyone's filters, and selecting my own party. There are plenty here who are not as familiar with my "meta," or who have never played with me before. I can understand how it is that it would be hard for them to vote for me or take me as seriously as their favorite vet. However, blindly voting your favorite guy is a system I refuse to be a part of.
The heavy vet preference from other players comes, as best I can tell, from this logic:
"Well, I'm too lazy/incompetent/troll to play this game so I want to vote for someone who I know actually tries..."
So your reads on others may not be perfect, but who cares? Why even bother playing a game of mafia if you're just going to throw all your eggs into one basket like all you who have voted for sandroba/syllo have? I myself would rather put all my money on red at the roulette table + Show Spoiler +. At least I would be honest with myself that I was making a completely unnecessary and foolish risk with my money...
Mafia manipulation:
Many of you seem to fear that it will be super-easy for mafia to hide in a setup where they don't necessarily need to spend all that much time faking scumhunting. But when you blindly vote for one guy you are missing an amazing opportunity to spot them out. By voting for a known 4-person party (where the party leader presents his choices) you are doing a better job of forcing their hand. They will be trying to steer the vote towards selecting their own members, and their voting should reflect that.
As an added bonus, this allows you to spread your risk. You can determine if the choices of the party leader match up to your own, and at least to some degree, determine how likely it is that the party has a mafia member in it.
By voting for a singular leader, it's an all or nothing proposition. They get their candidate in, or they don't. Either way, we get far less information from that. We will not be able to narrow down what went wrong should things go wrong. Is it a scum party leader with questionable choices or a town party leader with questionable choices? The only way you'd know for sure is to lynch every party leader who fails his mission... This is a system I am wholeheartedly opposed to.
In Conclusion:
Nothing in this game is certain, but what I am certain of is that there's not a snowflake's prayer in hell I'm voting for either sandroba or syllo (or should I say sandollo?) until they provide more information on who they're bringing and why. I wasn't altogether serious about "running for office" before but I am now. I am unhappy with what I see and will be making a post outlining who I'll bring and why within the next couple hours.
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That was waaayyyyyyy longer than I expected... But I will be reviewing all filters and provide my candidates in the next couple hours.
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Cyrus is a good guy in the lore, and tbh I don't feel that kush being the troll he is would take the time to make as sophisticated a lie as what he just said.
I'm guessing he has a suicide bomber-type role as cyrus has a rather unfortunate demise at the hands of Magus in the game.
Finally went through all the filters. Now going to go through my short-list to make my proposed party...
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Okay. To the best of my ability I have selected a team. I would like to take a few seconds to note that I was very disappointed my shortlist wasn't longer. Many people here have not taken the effort to establish themselves as town. I'm not by any means the perfect reader in this game, but by making a few more reads on who you feel are viable candidates many of you could have made it easier for me as I could have had more insight into your thought process.
I will not lie. None of these I have a "definitely town" read on. However, given the context of their play so far, I feel their play is more likely town-motivated than scum-motivated, and the best prospects for being town.
In no particular order:
1) Oats: This is a guy who has played unafraid of what others think of him, making a mediocre (at best) case against clarity and chiming in every chance he gets. He clearly is excited to scumhunt, which is what I believe to be the only reason he placed a vote on toad. I visualize a scum in this setup taking more time discussing who's town, which is definitely the "safer" route.
2) Djo: I can't say that I have a very strong read on him, but I'm leaning towards town. He has proposed his own ideas for how to run an election. A scum could be just as forthcoming, however. Beyond that, I have to go off of his reads: he doesn't trust acro and prox, and thinks oats is town. I am in general agreement there. Definitely my weakest read.
3) Sandroba: However much I feel he's playing lazy (he is), I keep coming back to his filter. I do currently believe that he is town. Everything he has done to date has been to provide clarity and insight into reads others have had and the general mechanics of this specific game. He could do this as scum, but I am inclined to believe he could have been a little less helpful and gotten away with it as scum as well. I look forward to seeing his proposed party as this will provide the information I need to help solidify my understanding of his thought process and determine if he truly belongs on this platform. But as it currently stands, I believe him to be town, and am including him on my platform.
A brief note on Dieno: He is playing so badly that many would consider him likely town, as newbie scum tend to play far more cautiously. However, the persistence and singlemindedness with which he's been pushing his campaign (even after repeatedly being warned) and shitting up the thread leaves enough doubt in my head to exclude him. As a newbie town trying to improve he would have changed his gameplan long ago, as a troll he would be more, well, trolly, and as a newbie who doesn't give a shit he would have given up. How he's been playing is just plain sad, to the point where I wonder if what he's been doing is deliberately anti-town as a scum. He most definitely could be town, but I would rather not take such a risk on such an unknown.
I would not say these names are 100% rigid, but I would have to hear a really damn good argument for me to change this lineup. I look forward to hearing what all of you have to say.
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On November 22 2012 15:18 Promethelax wrote:
GK:
1) I miss being called prox <3
2) Your proposed team is butt fuck bad. Including Sand makes voting you as bad an idea as voting Sand. If I was confidant that Sand was town I'd vote his ass over yours any day (no offense but he is a beast and you are one of the top newbs to come out of the games when I was new. But so are Keir and Hapa).
3) Oats isn't a town read, he is an 'excited to play mafia' read. He reminds me a lot of my first game where I posted all of the posts even though I was mafia and being quiet would have been smarter.
4) you called Djo a weak town read for you and said you couldn't see this team changing.
Sorry bud, not a chance you'll get my vote. I like you as a person but this election ain't for you.
Just to be clear, my choices weren't specifically made because I just have to win an election. I'm honestly not that upset if I don't win, as long as what I feel to be a strong town team party is established as an outcome of the discussion. To that end, I didn't put winning chances into consideration when determining my party...
You are right that being quiet in this particular setup is terrible for mafia. But at the same time I had trouble supporting a party full of inactives and semilurkers, as there's no way to definitively determine that they are town either. I chose to eliminate anyone I deemed difficult to definitively read. That included: trolls (Kush and friends), hardcore lurkers (such as Adam), semi-lurkers (such as yourself, at the time I made my picks), and hard-to-read vets (such as Marv). That narrowed the field of who I could choose substantially. I do very much appreciate the concerns you have voiced over my picks. I would say it was largely via a process of elimination. But I would ask that if you are so adamently opposed to them that you explain to me how the alternatives you support are better suited.
Kitaman has done nothing to establish he's town. He's said he wants to be leader, and that's honestly about it. I suppose he's made a few jabs at really safe targets too (such as kush...).
Deino is largely an unknown.
Acro is someone whose meta and story I can't presently follow. He's clearly angry, but as a townie or scum I can't decide at present. You seem to be an avid supporter of him, so I would be interested to know what quality he possesses that has you so confident he is town.
As for Prox: I was thinking you would make a good candidate, but your activity waned. Not only that, but since proposing some solid setup ideas, you have fervently supported Acro for reasons unbeknownst to me... And have been opposed to Sandroba, again for reasons unbeknownst to me... I would really appreciate clarification in both departments.
I definitely took a hardline, rigid stance on my choices, but that doesn't mean I won't change them if you propose a strong alternative. As it is, however, you have yet to do so.
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EBWOP: It looks like you provided an explanation as I was typing my argument together. I will take another look at acro's filter, but I am very uncomfortable with Kita as a party leader.
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On November 22 2012 16:11 Promethelax wrote:
GK: it seems to me that scum want to be elected leader (an assumption but ah well, I have to go with what I have) or at least be a party member, since there were only two candidates who seemed like they would take each other in thier parties I was deeply unhappy. If scum wants be leader (which I believe) than one of Sand or Syllo must be scum. Otherwise a strong candidate would have appeared to oppose them, since that had not appeared I assumed that mafia was content with what we were doing and I was not content with that.
As I said pre-game I am trying to change the way I play. I can't commit the time I have in the past and I am trying to remain an active town asset despite that. If you don't trust me yet that is fine, I'm playing differently than I ever have before and, for some reason people still think I'm a great scum player, you'll realize that I'm town eventually. My activity will always be in spurts.
Kita may not be the best leader but he is better than Syllo/Sand (though I would vote Syllo over sand) and I hate the party you chose. I think that Kita has a chance to be party leader and has a better chance of being town than Sand or Syllo. His town reads also agree with mine.
Syllo: please answer my earlier questions.
I understand your concerns about a scum party leader winning day one, but I still don't see any reason why Kita is any less likely to fit that bill. He gained zero momentum until now, and I would speculate that from a scum perspective that is because scum would not vote their candidate without some support jumping onto it. Speculation to be sure, but I don't see any reason why he's less likely to be scum than syllo/sand. Also keep in mind that sand upfront gave syllo "veto powers." Imagine how unnecessary (and ridiculous) a move that would be from a scum perspective, when sand had at that point gained considerable momentum in his campaign and had nothing to gain as scum for making such a statement.
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On November 22 2012 17:29 sandroba wrote:
I'll probably be taking oats/die/kush (if he doesnt die).
And who would you take if kush does die? I was kind of working under the assumption that he was going to...
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Since it just occurred to me I haven't done this yet:
##Vote: Goodkarma
I find it unfortunate there isn't more participation in debate of the candidates now that everyone who is going to run for party leader has come forward. Hopefully this changes in the next couple hours.
P.S.: I will not be around much tomorrow as I will be out for U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. So between tonight and tomorrow morning I would strongly recommend that those who haven't come forward to voice their opinions do so so I can address any questions you might still have before the voting deadline.
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On November 22 2012 18:52 phagga wrote:
@Goodkarma
If you trust Sandro so much, why do you not vote him? If GK thinks Sandro is so townie that you includes him in your team, why should I vote you instead of Sandro?
What do you say to the following: You are scum, you include a town sandro to make his team more townie, hoping to catch more votes like that.
I answered all of these questions if you were to actually take the time to read my filter...
As for what I think of Sandroba currently, I can understand the selection of Kush, but I don't like it. If Kush is in fact telling the truth I find it hard to believe there are that many people lower than 30 HP in a game that has 999HP max (I know this is very speculative but still...). As such I would expect him to have a contingency plan if Kush were to die...
I readily admit that Sandroba may not be the best candidate as he's been playing. Since I nominated him, he's been extremely stingy with the details of who he plans on choosing and why.
Further I missed there was a role claim by Dien... And I will admit that by adopting a process of elimination-type process it is possible that I overlooked better qualified candidates that are possibly in the "semi-lurker" position. Prox especially comes to mind. But I would like to say that while this is definitely in part my fault it is additionally the fault of those people who have decided to sit back and let things play out without voicing their opinions. It has made it that much harder for me to find three strong candidates.
I will reassess my choices, and have a finalized list here in the next few hours. I'll try to touch up on the thread tomorrow as best I can, but will be rather time-limited.
Currently the two I object most to on the Kita ticket are Kita and Acros. Kita especially as he has done very little to even try to establish himself as town, and, as the leader of his ticket, that worries me. A lot...
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On November 22 2012 15:53 syllogism wrote:
Right now I would say there is a >50% chance that sandroba is mafia. His interest in the game feels superficial and some of his posts feel off. For instance him saying that he is "torn" about clarity_nl as opposed to actually stating whether he now thinks it is more likely that he is town or mafia. His explanation as to why he thought clarity was mafia is also pretty weak by his standards. Pouncing with one-liners on weak stuff? That probably applies to many, many people in every single game.
Missed this discussion from syllogism on Sandro... He is no longer on my list. Oats is on both of our lists, and upon skimming his filter I found this:
On November 21 2012 15:44 Oatsmaster wrote:
Dont guess Djo, how could you know how mafia KPs work in this setup.
Does scum have to send in actions before they know who the party leader is? or after the whole party is made?
I think you misunderstand me. My point is that we should focus on completing the tasks since that is the only way town gets an advantage. The best way to complete the tasks is the send the 4 towniest players
I know it's petty semantics, but since sending in actions is a matter-of-fact thing, I would expect a town to ask if actions were sent in before or after. Since it is a disadvantageous thing for scum if actions are sent in, asking if they have to be sent before party leaders are announced makes sense.
So What Now?:
Oats is definitely a bit of a try-hard newbie, and honestly that was part of what I felt was townie about him. The biggest issue, however, is that being a tryhard this game is pretty important for the scum wincon, and as such I would expect most scum to be active members (likely more active than town). Between this and that he was included on sandro's list, I am inclined to remove him as well for the time being. I'm not saying he's scum, but I was too eager to bring in people I saw as active and acting pro-town while he could just as easily be acting as scum in this way.
Oh wait? Does that mean that you are about-facing and saying Sandroba is scum?
Not necessarily. All I know is that there is enough doubt on him, and since I nominated him he has performed very poorly for town. In my opinon town has not done enough to differentiate itself from the scum and that is where my problem has been. These two are going to be replaced with your average town representatives, which at this point of the game I am confident is the semi-lurker demographic. It's not what I would have hoped for, but it looks to be the safest demographic to tap from, especially since more than half the current players reside there...
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I can use smaller words, and add in some misspellings for good measure...
Filter reading tyme.
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Okay, I have finalized my team. It will be of an unusual composition (of the semi-lurker variety). Since mafia needs to influence party compositions in this game it is to their advantage to be proactive and not lurking. As such, I have chosen those I see as both pro-town and semi-lurking. These individuals I feel have been semi-lurking while contributing genuinely to the thread their own thoughts and opinions about the current game mechanics and other players. These are currently my strongest town reads.:
In no particular order:
1) Djo
2) phagga
3) dieno (only because dieno has made a role-claim I am inclined to cautiously believe...)
I will be around the next thirty minutes, and will review the thread briefly afterwards in about six hours. Please discuss any thoughts or concerns you have of these players before then.
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I have already briefly discussed my reasoning for Djo. And since reassessing my reads I have seen no reason for removing him.
phagga - Again not a strong read. He fits my selection criteria of a semi-lurker who shows interest in scumhunting and has his own train of thought for how to go about selecting a candidate...
Indeed phagga does not have as much of a track record as I would consider ideal in making a read in a normal game, but for this particular setup he is not being as active as would be ideal for mafia. That was a part of my train of thought in choosing him. Presently the challenge has been differentiating town from scum and that has been harder with the "townhunting" system. This is the system I have devised to increase the chances of picking town this cycle. I am open to hearing other suggestions, but as it currently stands this would be an ideal team for my selection criteria.
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EPT
