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On November 06 2012 08:54 Promethelax wrote: Sorry for triple post: Acro could you link me to the site you are using to look up the set up information? I have some ideas I want to check. Thanks. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++
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On November 06 2012 08:54 mkfuba07 wrote: I don't know why, but something about draz is making me think he's actually town. Doesn't it seem like a really stupid move to pull that shit after having your vote parked on him all day? Like, I feel like his plan as scum would have been to bus hope, so why would he pull that shit right around the deadline? It would have been his whole purpose behind voting hope in the first place? Does that make sense? That one's easy. Park your vote on your scumbuddy who isn't going to get lynched anyway... until "oh shit, he's getting lynched", panic and unvote.
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On November 06 2012 09:06 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 08:54 mkfuba07 wrote: I don't know why, but something about draz is making me think he's actually town. Doesn't it seem like a really stupid move to pull that shit after having your vote parked on him all day? Like, I feel like his plan as scum would have been to bus hope, so why would he pull that shit right around the deadline? It would have been his whole purpose behind voting hope in the first place? Does that make sense? That one's easy. Park your vote on your scumbuddy who isn't going to get lynched anyway... until "oh shit, he's getting lynched", panic and unvote.
This. A million times this.
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But drazak never pretended to want to lynch him. It was always a vote to pressure him out of afk. I don't see the scum motivation for taking your vote off like that. Scum would also not draw attention to themselves in quite so obvious a way. Any scum would have left their vote on hopeless, because it was pretty clear hopeless was going to be lynched anyway. As soon as all those people voted hopeless at once it was pretty clear that he was the lynch.
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Here is the thing: dp cant make cases as scum. Whenever he does, they are ridiculous. That is his tell. So his strategy was to not make cases and just comment on little stuff and sheep the rest. But then we called him out on it. So now he's back to old scum dp, actively pushing ridic cases. The drazak case even had me convinced at first because it is so convenient, but it's scumminess is purely superficial. How drazak acted at lynch time is not how scum acts IMO.
Notice how everything about DP just changed after he almost got bandwagoned.
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Kush's voting pattern actually makes him look more innocent. Dumber, but more innocent. He believed Hopeless1der's claim (goddamnit Kush, I hope you learned your lesson) and unvoted. Then Prom started yelling to get the hell back on Hopeless1der and Kush complied. He only moved his vote off again when the deal was already sealed.
Also, Risk didn't strictly hammer. He placed his vote on the guy who was already getting lynched: he consolidated and ensured last-minute shenanigans were impossible. Here's the history:
Hopeless sits at 5 votes: drazak, kushm4sta, Acrofales, mkfuba07, DarthPunk Pretty much simultaneously: kush unvotes and Prom votes. I believe Prom thought he was sealing the deal. Hopeless still at 5 votes: drazak, Acrofales, mkfuba07, DarthPunk, Promethelax Kushm4sta hammers (in non-bolded text), Hopeless is gonna get lynched. Thrawn also hammers, 7 votes on Hopeless. Drazak unvotes. In actual fact this unvote is COMPLETELY pointless. However, I doubt that he actually knew that at the time, given his behaviour.
After this, Risk votes and Drazak revotes. Finally Kush jumps off again.
Man, I love this train. Either that was a fucking professional bus by Prom and Thrawn or they are town. I am obviously town.
To some extent, I also like mkfuba in the deal, but less than Prom and Thrawn.
Imho the vote says nothing about DP or risk.
Drazak in particular looks like scum from this. Kush is just another layer on weird bullcrap in his already weird bullcrap play. The real problem is going to be finding the SK in this. Release is an option for not giving a flying fuck. However, everybody looking townie in this deal could also be an SK, because I think we already established that the SK should be playing with town today.
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I'd have to be a monumentally stupid scum to jump that vote as scum, lol.
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On November 06 2012 09:31 kushm4sta wrote: But drazak never pretended to want to lynch him. It was always a vote to pressure him out of afk. I don't see the scum motivation for taking your vote off like that. Scum would also not draw attention to themselves in quite so obvious a way. Any scum would have left their vote on hopeless, because it was pretty clear hopeless was going to be lynched anyway. As soon as all those people voted hopeless at once it was pretty clear that he was the lynch.
Except he posted that he was in full agreement with that dick comment and then Unvotes scum 4 MINUTES before deadline and derail a lynch.
My case on Drazak is not ridiculous and existed before day 2 even started. So it is hardly like I am pushing drazak after 1 person. (you) voted for me.
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People are going to say this is confirmation bias, but if you look for the golden moment when a scum would likely bus on the bandwagon timeline that acro layed out for us, it's right around dp.
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tbh I just thought the dick comment was funny, and I hadn't read hope's post yet about returning, I missed some posts somehow, like a whole page
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On November 06 2012 09:44 drazak wrote: tbh I just thought the dick comment was funny, and I hadn't read hope's post yet about returning, I missed some posts somehow, like a whole page I buy this !
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On November 06 2012 09:31 kushm4sta wrote: But drazak never pretended to want to lynch him. It was always a vote to pressure him out of afk. I don't see the scum motivation for taking your vote off like that. Scum would also not draw attention to themselves in quite so obvious a way. Any scum would have left their vote on hopeless, because it was pretty clear hopeless was going to be lynched anyway. As soon as all those people voted hopeless at once it was pretty clear that he was the lynch. Town doesn't have their vote on someone they don't want to kill 4 minutes before the deadline in a very contested race.
You cannot tell me that Drazak had his vote there, but was just too careless to take it off in favour of someone he felt WAS scummy. His vote was there because he wanted to make it look like he wanted to kill Hopeless1der. Except when push came to shove he suddenly didn't want to kill Hopeless1der anymore.
Scum doesn't act that stupid. Except they do. Risen pulled that crap in some game (look in the award thread). He was called too dumb to be scum and coasted by on that to an easy scum victory. However, town get last-second jitters too.
My main problem is that Drazak is not explaining his thought process. A town voteswitch would be able to say what was their reasoning. Drazak has NOT explained how he went from "lynch", "wait whoops no, lets not" back to "yeah, lets lynch" in the space of 2 minutes.
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On November 06 2012 09:38 Acrofales wrote: Kush's voting pattern actually makes him look more innocent. Dumber, but more innocent. He believed Hopeless1der's claim (goddamnit Kush, I hope you learned your lesson) and unvoted. Then Prom started yelling to get the hell back on Hopeless1der and Kush complied. He only moved his vote off again when the deal was already sealed.
Also, Risk didn't strictly hammer. He placed his vote on the guy who was already getting lynched: he consolidated and ensured last-minute shenanigans were impossible. Here's the history:
Hopeless sits at 5 votes: drazak, kushm4sta, Acrofales, mkfuba07, DarthPunk Pretty much simultaneously: kush unvotes and Prom votes. I believe Prom thought he was sealing the deal. Hopeless still at 5 votes: drazak, Acrofales, mkfuba07, DarthPunk, Promethelax Kushm4sta hammers (in non-bolded text), Hopeless is gonna get lynched. Thrawn also hammers, 7 votes on Hopeless. Drazak unvotes. In actual fact this unvote is COMPLETELY pointless. However, I doubt that he actually knew that at the time, given his behaviour.
After this, Risk votes and Drazak revotes. Finally Kush jumps off again.
Man, I love this train. Either that was a fucking professional bus by Prom and Thrawn or they are town. I am obviously town.
To some extent, I also like mkfuba in the deal, but less than Prom and Thrawn.
Imho the vote says nothing about DP or risk.
Drazak in particular looks like scum from this. Kush is just another layer on weird bullcrap in his already weird bullcrap play. The real problem is going to be finding the SK in this. Release is an option for not giving a flying fuck. However, everybody looking townie in this deal could also be an SK, because I think we already established that the SK should be playing with town today.
I don't agree with your conclusions. I think the only person that gets any town cred from this lynch is prom for pushing the lynch onto others so hard. Thrawn and risk had to hammer because they were being called out on it by prom and would have looked terribad had they not sealed a lynch. Kush and draz both derailed things in their own special ways. Aside from prom MAYBE Mkfuba gets some cred for voting with the initial rush and helping create a scum lynch out of thin air. Maybe.
All in all your analysis is poor IMO.
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On November 06 2012 09:43 kushm4sta wrote: People are going to say this is confirmation bias, but if you look for the golden moment when a scum would likely bus on the bandwagon timeline that acro layed out for us, it's right around dp.
What a load of shit.
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On November 06 2012 09:43 kushm4sta wrote: People are going to say this is confirmation bias, but if you look for the golden moment when a scum would likely bus on the bandwagon timeline that acro layed out for us, it's right around dp. It's why I have DP as null from the vote. It was when the wagon was already rolling, but early enough to not look suspicious. However, town jumps on at that time too. You should just keep in mind that the mere fact of him being on the wagon does not mean he's town. It doesn't make him scum automatically either.
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On November 06 2012 09:46 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 09:31 kushm4sta wrote: But drazak never pretended to want to lynch him. It was always a vote to pressure him out of afk. I don't see the scum motivation for taking your vote off like that. Scum would also not draw attention to themselves in quite so obvious a way. Any scum would have left their vote on hopeless, because it was pretty clear hopeless was going to be lynched anyway. As soon as all those people voted hopeless at once it was pretty clear that he was the lynch. Town doesn't have their vote on someone they don't want to kill 4 minutes before the deadline in a very contested race. You cannot tell me that Drazak had his vote there, but was just too careless to take it off in favour of someone he felt WAS scummy. His vote was there because he wanted to make it look like he wanted to kill Hopeless1der. Except when push came to shove he suddenly didn't want to kill Hopeless1der anymore. Scum doesn't act that stupid. Except they do. Risen pulled that crap in some game (look in the award thread). He was called too dumb to be scum and coasted by on that to an easy scum victory. However, town get last-second jitters too. My main problem is that Drazak is not explaining his thought process. A town voteswitch would be able to say what was their reasoning. Drazak has NOT explained how he went from "lynch", "wait whoops no, lets not" back to "yeah, lets lynch" in the space of 2 minutes.
what, I explained my thought process, I don't think it's fair to lynch someone on a lurker lynch and then see a post about being in meetings or busy all day, I don't think that's a cool thing to do.
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Drazak was fine with lynching Hopeless until Hopeless was actually going to get lynched. he was around before and could have unvoted earlier but didn't.
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On November 06 2012 09:46 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 09:38 Acrofales wrote: Kush's voting pattern actually makes him look more innocent. Dumber, but more innocent. He believed Hopeless1der's claim (goddamnit Kush, I hope you learned your lesson) and unvoted. Then Prom started yelling to get the hell back on Hopeless1der and Kush complied. He only moved his vote off again when the deal was already sealed.
Also, Risk didn't strictly hammer. He placed his vote on the guy who was already getting lynched: he consolidated and ensured last-minute shenanigans were impossible. Here's the history:
Hopeless sits at 5 votes: drazak, kushm4sta, Acrofales, mkfuba07, DarthPunk Pretty much simultaneously: kush unvotes and Prom votes. I believe Prom thought he was sealing the deal. Hopeless still at 5 votes: drazak, Acrofales, mkfuba07, DarthPunk, Promethelax Kushm4sta hammers (in non-bolded text), Hopeless is gonna get lynched. Thrawn also hammers, 7 votes on Hopeless. Drazak unvotes. In actual fact this unvote is COMPLETELY pointless. However, I doubt that he actually knew that at the time, given his behaviour.
After this, Risk votes and Drazak revotes. Finally Kush jumps off again.
Man, I love this train. Either that was a fucking professional bus by Prom and Thrawn or they are town. I am obviously town.
To some extent, I also like mkfuba in the deal, but less than Prom and Thrawn.
Imho the vote says nothing about DP or risk.
Drazak in particular looks like scum from this. Kush is just another layer on weird bullcrap in his already weird bullcrap play. The real problem is going to be finding the SK in this. Release is an option for not giving a flying fuck. However, everybody looking townie in this deal could also be an SK, because I think we already established that the SK should be playing with town today. I don't agree with your conclusions. I think the only person that gets any town cred from this lynch is prom for pushing the lynch onto others so hard. Thrawn and risk had to hammer because they were being called out on it by prom and would have looked terribad had they not sealed a lynch. Kush and draz both derailed things in their own special ways. Aside from prom MAYBE Mkfuba gets some cred for voting with the initial rush and helping create a scum lynch out of thin air. Maybe. All in all your analysis is poor IMO. Lol. I believe you're forgetting me for getting it started in the first place, but draw the conclusions you will. I just posted mine. Not saying they are the ONLY way of interpreting the vote. I get a green vibe on thrawn from that. And a slightly green vibe on mkfuba.
PS. I dedicate the kill to Mattchew and Muso. Two players who knew what was up when they died for the cause
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On November 06 2012 09:48 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 09:43 kushm4sta wrote: People are going to say this is confirmation bias, but if you look for the golden moment when a scum would likely bus on the bandwagon timeline that acro layed out for us, it's right around dp. It's why I have DP as null from the vote. It was when the wagon was already rolling, but early enough to not look suspicious. However, town jumps on at that time too. You should just keep in mind that the mere fact of him being on the wagon does not mean he's town. It doesn't make him scum automatically either.
Well I agree with you here. I stated earlier that I was ok with lynching hopeless and when I saw people put their money where their mouth was I jumped on board.
I didn't know if he was scum or not. I was Lynching a lurker whom I much prefered to lynch over my town read who was the leading candidate at the time and whom is clearly town.
I don't see how you could see anything other than a null tell with the timing of my vote.
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