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On October 31 2012 07:07 nackhtjogger wrote:
Why even consider the possibility that Roco and Inig are scum, instead of town sheeping me and my awesome revolutionary case? We had a momentum going on. I thought that if you were town maybe you were going to join the movement. But as it stands I don't believe you would've voted for Cheese even if Dandel and Rad would've voted for him. Your sheeping was conditional and you indicated this subtlely when you made the false statement that Dandel was to blame for a mislynch if he voted for Cheese. You even fucking apologized for this. Quite frankly you should've been the one to vote Cheese not Dandel. That said.. what do you think about my case on Cheese? That wasn't even my idea. Dandel was the one who attacked me for putting him in a bad position, suspecting me of trying to set him up.
I only said that to tell him that I honestly didn't think about the possibility that that's how he would feel. I only thought that if he was town that he'd think "hey, that's a good idea!" and go along with it, thus confirming to me that he was town instead of Cheese. At this point I think I was probably too rushed to think things through and it wouldn't have actually meant that Dandel was town if he went along with it, but at the time things were pretty damn stressful.
But if you had actually read the thread, you would've known that. But you don't seem to care in the slightest about how much sense your theories make. In fact, as opposed to Inig, you don't seem to care fuck all about anything other than annoying people. I'll read your damn case on Cheese, but at this point I'm pretty convinced that the only reason you are even making a case against him is because you want to clutter up the thread even more than your inane popcorn timing around lynch.
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Nackh, I love it how you're just confirming to the entire thread that I'm town yet making your own alignment a fucking coin flip. If the situation wasn't lylo I'd policy lynch your trolling ass.
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The problem I have with your case on Cheese(this post) is that your entire case seems to hinge on the fact that you've already decided from the get go that he's scum(just like it seems like you did with me). Your comments are basically just your own ramblings of what a scum Cheese might or might not be thinking at that stage which is WIFOM hell. I could just as easily make an argument for why based on that post a town Cheese might have said what he said.
The first comment that while town don't particularly need to know the state of affairs, it could easily just be him coming back and seeing his top scum read(Djod) not under any pressure any longer and having to choose between who he most likely thinks is scum among two possible lynchees. Of course a townie who couldn't get his own scum read lynched would want to try and minimize the damage by picking the target he himself thought was most likely scum.
Your last comment is just gibberish. You say yourself that no one in the thread should have a good read whether or not Djod is scum or town, yet somehow you criticise Cheese for calling out the fact that da0ud was 90% sure about Djod being town? Who are you even calling scummy here, da0ud or Cheese? Because it looks like you're criticising da0ud to me.
There's more examples of how your arguments are basically just either pure conjecture based on god knows what, but in general you seem to be living in your own little world. Or you're just trolling. Either way it's not helping.
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All right, I wanted to make this post in the case that I die. These are the reads that I haven't really made public as of yet for varying reasons.
Debears is very probably town, if he isn't then I don't know what to say.
Rad is definitely town, or at the very least you should treat him as such. If he's SK the game is over for town but if he's vigi it's definitely winnable.
Dandel is probably town, but I still can't discount the possibility that he's scum role blocker. His claim doesn't rule it out(like Rad's does) but his actions during D2/N2 at least suggests to me that he's either town or a damned good actor when under pressure(the lynch chaos seemed genuinely town to me).
Nackh I consider to be really scummy. His cases seem "fake" somehow, they don't suggest to me like he's really trying to really find scum. I keep getting the feeling that he doesn't actually care about winning. However, if I suppose that he's scum, it would mean that he just believes trolling the fuck out of the thread will make us feel scared about voting him(because we might think he's too big of a risk to lynch).
Cheese... I just don't know, he's my top scum read among "the actives" based on his actions, but my problem is that I think Nackh is really scummy, so Cheese being accused by him means that either he's bussing him or Cheese is innocent. I can at least see a world where Cheese could be innocent.
I find Nackh's general behaviour to be anti-town however. So suppose he really has played those 10 games of mafia he claims to have played. Then he probably knows that bussing is way more effective for gaining townie points if you're the cause of a scum lynch(first one to accuse) as opposed to waiting until there's a wagon already formed.
Among these players and with how things stand right now, I'd suggest lynching Nackh. He's simply not playing very pro-town and that's the biggest scum tell I have right now. Also, unless that's also just him completely trolling, for some reason he seems set on the idea that both Roco and Inig are town with no chance of them being scum. I have no idea why he would think that unless he already knew that they were town.
That leaves Roco and Inig. Sigh, I really wish we hadn't thought Roco was gonna get modkilled. Getting rid of him over Djod or even da0ud would've been a much better position. That being said, I'd hold off on lynching Inig for at the very least tomorrow. I find the possibility of him being town not entirely unlikely and in the case that he is, there's still hope for him. I think you have to assume that Roco is scum. Because even if he isn't I just don't see how you could get him to vote with you when he won't even talk.
In conclusion, Lynch Roco and hope to god that he's scum, then probably Nackh, and then hopefully you have the last scum figured out and Rad doesn't actually turn out to be SK. If you don't want to hope that Roco is scum, or if in fact he actually shows up and contributes in a meaningful way, then I'd go with Nackh first.
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Ok, screw my last minute post, Dandel is probably scum, post coming up.
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First, I think we can all agree that before this night flip, we knew two things. That Rad was either SK or Vigi and also that Dandel was either scum or town roleblocker.
We know that scum couldn't know for sure if Rad was vigi or SK. However, if they suspected that he was SK they must have counted on him having a vest making him immune to one kill.
Interestingly however, Dandel being scum or not would likely affect their decision greatly. Since if Dandel was town, they must have suspected that Rad was SK and thus night immune(since 4 blues seems like quite a stretch). On the other hand, if Dandel is scum, scum could definitely conclude that the possibility of Rad being vigi is much more likely(with only 2 blues it seems like the game would be very stacked against town if there's also a serial killer).
Additionally, there's the fact that claiming town roleblocker is actually really easy to do if you are scum roleblocker. By the time Dandel claimed, he would have known from his scum buddies that none of them were role blocked. Neither had anyone else claimed roleblock so he knew the possibility of a town roleblocker was very unlikely(since town would definitely claim if they got roleblocked). Him bread crumbing that he would roleblock kush is a null tell at best.
So, in conclusion, why I think Dandel is scum:
- Unlikelihood of there being 4 blues, as well as the very real possibility that there is a scum roleblocker.
- The fact that scum probably wouldn't risk shooting an SK, something they must have suspected if Dandel was town.
- The likelihood of there actually being a scum roleblocker.
- Wanting to set up kush for the D2 lynch.
- OMGUS case against Inig D1.
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On October 31 2012 09:33 Dandel Ion wrote:
So, you're gonna risk LYLO because of.... setup speculation? With added WIFOM?
......
Well, good job coming up with a "case" that's impossible to defend against, I guess.
I literally have no idea what to say to that. I don't expect you to defend against it as like you said, the case is not really open for debate as it's just a statement of probability. I believe there's a very high chance of you being scum.
If you(or someone else for that matter) can produce a case where someone else is even more scum I'm still going to read and consider it. I'm not going to go all Nackh and read everything you say painted in red. But right now this is the best I can do. What do you propose are our other options? Gambling on nackh, roco or Inig? Or do you think Cheese, debears or me is scum perhaps? What does everyone else think?
It's possible that you're town and scum took a chance with hitting Rad. It's possible that there really are 4 blue roles. It's possible that the scum roleblocker is really someone else. I just find the odds of all those things aligning together to be very long odds.
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Because I actually was making a post like that about an hour before the night post when I first thought about it but writing the post got me so convinced that scum wouldn't hit Rad that it seemed like a pointless argument to make at the time. Thinking that, I figured even if you were town they wouldn't kill you simply because of your claim being ambiguous. Which is the point where I started to realise the only other targets would be debears or if debears was somehow scum, me.
I just concluded that they wouldn't actually try to kill Rad. Seeing the night post surprised me quite a lot.
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Anyway, I really need to sleep. I promise that I will read and consider everything. It's just that if rolling the dice is the only option left, I'd rather it be a roll that I consider at least somewhat likely to have a good result.
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On October 31 2012 10:14 debears wrote:@Alsn
How do you go from this? Show nested quote +On October 31 2012 08:59 Alsn wrote:
All right, I wanted to make this post in the case that I die. These are the reads that I haven't really made public as of yet for varying reasons.
Debears is very probably town, if he isn't then I don't know what to say.
Rad is definitely town, or at the very least you should treat him as such. If he's SK the game is over for town but if he's vigi it's definitely winnable.
Dandel is probably town, but I still can't discount the possibility that he's scum role blocker. His claim doesn't rule it out(like Rad's does) but his actions during D2/N2 at least suggests to me that he's either town or a damned good actor when under pressure(the lynch chaos seemed genuinely town to me).
Nackh I consider to be really scummy. His cases seem "fake" somehow, they don't suggest to me like he's really trying to really find scum. I keep getting the feeling that he doesn't actually care about winning. However, if I suppose that he's scum, it would mean that he just believes trolling the fuck out of the thread will make us feel scared about voting him(because we might think he's too big of a risk to lynch).
Cheese... I just don't know, he's my top scum read among "the actives" based on his actions, but my problem is that I think Nackh is really scummy, so Cheese being accused by him means that either he's bussing him or Cheese is innocent. I can at least see a world where Cheese could be innocent.
I find Nackh's general behaviour to be anti-town however. So suppose he really has played those 10 games of mafia he claims to have played. Then he probably knows that bussing is way more effective for gaining townie points if you're the cause of a scum lynch(first one to accuse) as opposed to waiting until there's a wagon already formed.
Among these players and with how things stand right now, I'd suggest lynching Nackh. He's simply not playing very pro-town and that's the biggest scum tell I have right now. Also, unless that's also just him completely trolling, for some reason he seems set on the idea that both Roco and Inig are town with no chance of them being scum. I have no idea why he would think that unless he already knew that they were town.
That leaves Roco and Inig. Sigh, I really wish we hadn't thought Roco was gonna get modkilled. Getting rid of him over Djod or even da0ud would've been a much better position. That being said, I'd hold off on lynching Inig for at the very least tomorrow. I find the possibility of him being town not entirely unlikely and in the case that he is, there's still hope for him. I think you have to assume that Roco is scum. Because even if he isn't I just don't see how you could get him to vote with you when he won't even talk.
In conclusion, Lynch Roco and hope to god that he's scum, then probably Nackh, and then hopefully you have the last scum figured out and Rad doesn't actually turn out to be SK. If you don't want to hope that Roco is scum, or if in fact he actually shows up and contributes in a meaningful way, then I'd go with Nackh first. so quickly to this? Show nested quote +On October 31 2012 09:05 Alsn wrote:
Ok, screw my last minute post, Dandel is probably scum, post coming up. and this Show nested quote +On October 31 2012 09:25 Alsn wrote:First, I think we can all agree that before this night flip, we knew two things. That Rad was either SK or Vigi and also that Dandel was either scum or town roleblocker. We know that scum couldn't know for sure if Rad was vigi or SK. However, if they suspected that he was SK they must have counted on him having a vest making him immune to one kill. Interestingly however, Dandel being scum or not would likely affect their decision greatly. Since if Dandel was town, they must have suspected that Rad was SK and thus night immune(since 4 blues seems like quite a stretch). On the other hand, if Dandel is scum, scum could definitely conclude that the possibility of Rad being vigi is much more likely(with only 2 blues it seems like the game would be very stacked against town if there's also a serial killer). Additionally, there's the fact that claiming town roleblocker is actually really easy to do if you are scum roleblocker. By the time Dandel claimed, he would have known from his scum buddies that none of them were role blocked. Neither had anyone else claimed roleblock so he knew the possibility of a town roleblocker was very unlikely(since town would definitely claim if they got roleblocked). Him bread crumbing that he would roleblock kush is a null tell at best. So, in conclusion, why I think Dandel is scum: - Unlikelihood of there being 4 blues, as well as the very real possibility that there is a scum roleblocker.
- The fact that scum probably wouldn't risk shooting an SK, something they must have suspected if Dandel was town.
- The likelihood of there actually being a scum roleblocker.
- Wanting to set up kush for the D2 lynch.
- OMGUS case against Inig D1.
This is very alarming. Within 25 minutes, you go from Dandel as town to having a thought out post with the opposite conclusion This shows that your sudden flip on Dandel was premeditated. That means you knew what was going to happen and were preparing for it. Some more thoughts coming up after this. I'm back.
My pre-day post was in the case that I died, my thoughts at the time were that if scum had really killed me for some reason, Dandel was probably town and they wanted to leave his ambiguous claim an open question for town. I had gotten so convinced from making that pre-day post that scum would not kill Rad that the fact that they did shocked me greatly.
As to your point that I couldn't think that argument up from nothing in 25 minutes, you're absolutely right. I don't know how that makes me scummy though as if I had shared every theory I have, this thread would be cluttered as fuck. I had been thinking about the possibility of Rad dying and what it meant for my opinion of Dandel for several hours before hand. So yes, the post was somewhat premeditated, except for the fact that near the end I concluded that I'd save it for the next night if the game lasted that long. Reasons being that I didn't want to let scum know my line of thinking unless it actually happened(if it never happened it would be good for me that they didn't know I suspected that Dandel was close to confirmed town).
So there, I see that you guys have managed to produce pretty much nothing during the 13 hours that I've been away. I'm anxiously awaiting something some time soon. Dandel, I can accept that it's your mothers birthday, but I really expect you to either do your absolute utmost tomorrow to find some lynchable scum or I can't see how I can't lynch you. Or at the very least, if you're really town, I hope someone can actually make an argument that makes sense to me why we should lynch someone else.
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Oh and just so you know debears, I'll be here all day if you wanted to ask me questions.
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Realised I forgot in my initial case.
##Vote Dandel Ion
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Also, I'd like to state that I have some thoughts I'd like to share in case things go a certain way today, I'll probably be making them public around the time I go sleep(halfway through the voting day). Just giving you a heads up so you don't go all ballistic on me for actually thinking about stuff well before I post them.
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Wait, what? You can block SK immunity? O_o
Wow, I had no idea. I thought that was just an innate thing that you couldn't do anything about. Is that actually the norm in mafia? From the OP I had thought that a serial killer chose his "power" on day 1 and then it was just there no matter what. Going to take another look at the OP.
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From the op:
If a serial killer is present he/she will be able to choose between investigation immunity and one shot bulletproof when the roles go out and before day 1 starts. If no choice is sent in then I will flip a coin and choose for the player.
Does that mean that the SK immunity is something they need to activate and that they can only activate it once and then it's gone even if it doesn't save him?
Because in that case, that blows a pretty big hole in my idea that it was unlikely that scum would target Rad. However, if that's indeed the case, Dandel claiming roleblock tonight makes him seem really suspicious. Although I have no idea how I should interpret Nackh figuring this out, either he has an idea about it from the scum QT and he's using it to frame Dandel, or he's genuinely experienced this type of rule before.
I sure as hell don't expect newbies on this forum to know about that type of rule, so I'm unsure of what it all means. On one hand, if scum really did roleblock Rad and killed him, it would mean Dandel was lying about being roleblocked and trying to roleblock Inig. However, if Dandel is lying, then that means that there are either two scum roleblockers, or that scum didn't actually roleblock Rad.
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Nackh, did you seriously find all those quotes and think through what they meant in 7 minutes? I know I'm doing a debears™ on your here, but come on.
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EBWOP: Nine minutes, was looking at the wrong posts.
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Wait, I just realised that Dandel could still be town and there be two scum roleblockers... Seriously, this game is fucking stupid. 
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[QUOTE]On October 31 2012 23:53 nackhtjogger wrote:
[QUOTE]On October 31 2012 23:50 Alsn wrote:
From the op:
[quote]
If a serial killer is present he/she will be able to choose between investigation immunity and one shot bulletproof when the roles go out and before day 1 starts. If no choice is sent in then I will flip a coin and choose for the player.[/quote]
Does that mean that the SK immunity is something they need to activate and that they can only activate it once and then it's gone even if it doesn't save him?
No, it means he got permanent 1 life + unless he's lynched, or roleblockshot[/QUOTE]That's what I thought, except I had no idea about the roleblock thing. But the wording in the OP does suggest some ambiguity as to how it really works, so I wouldn't be surprised if scum asked the hosts for clarification.
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On October 31 2012 23:53 nackhtjogger wrote:Show nested quote +On October 31 2012 23:50 Alsn wrote:From the op:
If a serial killer is present he/she will be able to choose between investigation immunity and one shot bulletproof when the roles go out and before day 1 starts. If no choice is sent in then I will flip a coin and choose for the player.
Does that mean that the SK immunity is something they need to activate and that they can only activate it once and then it's gone even if it doesn't save him? No, it means he got permanent 1 life + unless he's lynched, or roleblockshot That's what I thought, except I had no idea about the roleblock thing. But the wording in the OP does suggest some ambiguity as to how it really works, so I wouldn't be surprised if scum asked the hosts for clarification.
Fixed sorry.
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EPT
