|
On October 07 2012 03:23 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2012 03:15 Keirathi wrote:On October 07 2012 03:10 kushm4sta wrote:
@promethelax
What else can they do but give up?? The paramedic leaves zero doubt.
Of course it leaves doubt. Both of those breadcrumbs were anything but subtle. If scum saw fuba's (especially after losing their godfather and being paranoid about paramedic), they could have potentially shot him to frame Hapa. The problem is, you still lynch Hapa anyways. There's just too much chance that the paramedic died using his ability rather than being shot. So, there's plausible doubt, but not enough to get out of a lynch. I would argue that the first bread crumb was pretty subtle since no one knew about the role. The second one was more subtle as a claim because the role was known but easier to decipher because the role was known. If my math is right though scum has two kp and the third townie death was Fuba by targeting Hapa. Also if hapa was town this would never be his response. Kier, you aren't dumb (believe me I know, you called my ass out when I was scum) but this post is just introducing doubt where there is none, you don't consider the actions of the players being accused. You have successfully posted while adding nothing to the thread; why did you post this?
What math? Where does it say anything about how much KP the mafia has? Or, how many mafia there are?
How can you do math when you don't know the variables?
About the last part, I was talking purely from a hypothetical standpoint. Hapa is 100% confirmed scum, because his actions aren't consistent with what a framed townie would do. They're what a caught scum does. The fact that you asked him to fight instead of give up, then calling me out for saying the reason that he COULD have fought (even if we wouldn't have believed him) is hypocritical as fuck.
|
On October 07 2012 04:29 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2012 03:37 Keirathi wrote:On October 07 2012 03:23 Promethelax wrote:On October 07 2012 03:15 Keirathi wrote:On October 07 2012 03:10 kushm4sta wrote:
@promethelax
What else can they do but give up?? The paramedic leaves zero doubt.
Of course it leaves doubt. Both of those breadcrumbs were anything but subtle. If scum saw fuba's (especially after losing their godfather and being paranoid about paramedic), they could have potentially shot him to frame Hapa. The problem is, you still lynch Hapa anyways. There's just too much chance that the paramedic died using his ability rather than being shot. So, there's plausible doubt, but not enough to get out of a lynch. I would argue that the first bread crumb was pretty subtle since no one knew about the role. The second one was more subtle as a claim because the role was known but easier to decipher because the role was known. If my math is right though scum has two kp and the third townie death was Fuba by targeting Hapa. Also if hapa was town this would never be his response. Kier, you aren't dumb (believe me I know, you called my ass out when I was scum) but this post is just introducing doubt where there is none, you don't consider the actions of the players being accused. You have successfully posted while adding nothing to the thread; why did you post this? What math? Where does it say anything about how much KP the mafia has? Or, how many mafia there are? How can you do math when you don't know the variables? About the last part, I was talking purely from a hypothetical standpoint. Hapa is 100% confirmed scum, because his actions aren't consistent with what a framed townie would do. They're what a caught scum does. The fact that you asked him to fight instead of give up, then calling me out for saying the reason that he COULD have fought (even if we wouldn't have believed him) is hypocritical as fuck. Sorry, that isn't clear, I use "if my math is right" to mean based on what I think I've figured out. It seems like there have been caimed vig shots/death by being a paramedic which encompass all the kills but two each night. If your understanding is different I'd love to hear it.
So, lets think about night 1 a bit. 3 people died: Risen (paramedic, who died from targetting scum), Annul (who you claimed your predecessor shot), and kingjames01 (scum shot? a secong vig? doesn't really matter).
Then, on the second night, 3 people still died. A paramedic, again assumed to have targetted scum. Tout, who was being pretty pro-town and therefor a probable scum shot, and austin whom no one has claimed shooting, and therefor probably a scum shot.
You can see why I'm screwy on your guessing game math. Because supposedly we had a vig shot, night 1, and not one on night 2, but still the same amount of kills. Yea, its possible that there was a medic save night 1, or any number of things, but I think any kind of extrapolation of scum numbers and KP at this point is EXTREMELY speculative. To suggest otherwise makes me question if you have extra information that I don't.
|
On October 07 2012 04:48 Promethelax wrote:
The information I have that you don't is reading the goddamn thread.
Touche.
|
On October 07 2012 13:09 kushm4sta wrote:fuck me I'm triple posting... this is why you don't post 1 liners I guess.
Soft Defense of Playbad VetsThis group is being FOSed by a lot of people (including me) just because they have very low activity and they are known to be good and experienced mafia players. This group definitely includes but is not probably not limited to: BloodyC0bbler, Keirathi, VisceraEyesTo use their inactivity as a scumtell I think is unfair. Here is why: There are too many of them to all be scum. Therefore something else must be causing vets to afk - IRL issues are very real. Especially for people who have a life (job, wife).
- Cluttering of the thread. This is the fault of 1) marv/hapa 2) useless posts from noobs.
- There is no urgency since we don't have to decide on a lynch.
- General disinterest. They have been playing for a long time. They lost their passion for forum mafia.
If you read their activity before they start lurking, it's mostly decent and what you'd expect. I propose we focus on scum targets with more evidence than "they usually play better."
Wat.
1) I'm not a vet by any means. I'm relatively new to these forums (I think I started in June? July? I have like 6 games played, and 2 currently going). I certainly haven't lost my passion for the game. I had some outside things interfere with the game, and then we've had what...5 days worth of confirmed scum to lynch. My other game is just more urgent than this one.
2) There are a ton of things in my filter to accuse me for, besides inactivity. Hell, I don't even think that me being inactive is the reason anyone is accusing me, outside of the fact that I asked you why you signed up if you weren't going to play, then have proceeded to not give the game much attention. But mostly its because, although I was quite active on day 1, I haven't done any scumhunting.
The fact that seem to be randomly giving me a town read and saying to look for better targets is hella fucking suspicious. There's basically no way anyone should have a town read on me right now in this game.
|
Meh, some people already read it, so its kind of pointless to edit it now :o
|
On October 09 2012 06:04 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
You are correct, I did claim medic prot to avoid getting shot again. Given that I only have 1 extra night life. Not sure why everyone keeps coming at me about being a third party but since your reasoning for your conclusion is wrong I will sum it up for you. Miller was removed from this game, the miller role was named "veteran". The actual veteran role however was not removed from the game. I am Lucky Citizen .
Whats even worse is that you assumed I was a third party serial killer. If you watched me you would have seen me visited and me go out and do something had I had a night action. Given that you knew that I had not visited anyone, and that I was visited you should realize the only logical conclusion is that I am town. You base your conclusion on false information as well as trusting two dead mafia.
Not sure what to say here other then you are a horribly bad townie or mafia desperately attempting to remove me from the game.
Err, what?
What kind of watcher is a watcher AND a tracker?
|
On October 09 2012 06:07 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2012 06:04 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
You are correct, I did claim medic prot to avoid getting shot again. Given that I only have 1 extra night life. Not sure why everyone keeps coming at me about being a third party but since your reasoning for your conclusion is wrong I will sum it up for you. Miller was removed from this game, the miller role was named "veteran". The actual veteran role however was not removed from the game. I am Lucky Citizen .
Whats even worse is that you assumed I was a third party serial killer. If you watched me you would have seen me visited and me go out and do something had I had a night action. Given that you knew that I had not visited anyone, and that I was visited you should realize the only logical conclusion is that I am town. You base your conclusion on false information as well as trusting two dead mafia.
Not sure what to say here other then you are a horribly bad townie or mafia desperately attempting to remove me from the game. Err, what? What kind of watcher is a watcher AND a tracker?
EBWOP:
Medical Examiner
You are the Medical Examiner. Each night, you may go through the records of an individual. You will be informed of any other players who visit this individual.
Says nothing about knowing if they leave.
|
@BC:
Again, since you didn't answer me.
What makes you think that a watcher sees that someone leaves to go do something when you watch them? The specific role information doesn't suggest that at all, nor does the watcher information on mafiascum wiki. I've not played with a ton of watcher, but all of them have been the exact same variation (except in heavily themed games): you see who targets your target, and thats it.
|
This is what I hate about after-the-fact edits.
Mementoss willingly gave information about his role without hesitation when Promethelax asked, but had to edit it out because he was ninja'd by BM24.
|
On October 09 2012 06:54 Keirathi wrote:
This is what I hate about after-the-fact edits.
Mementoss willingly gave information about his role without hesitation when Promethelax asked, but had to edit it out because he was ninja'd by BM24.
What I mean is that it already influenced my read of the situation, but now I can't even share that with other people because it was asked to not be talked about.
|
That I almost 100% believe Mementoss's claim at this point.
As far as BC...I think its about 50/50 whether he's SK or Vet. We don't know enough about the scum numbers or KP to be able to decidedly prove that there's an SK, IMO. And claiming that he was medic protected as a Vet does make some modicum of sense. Its probably what I would do if I knew there were save notifications (ie austin).
I'm...not sure he's worth lynching tomorrow. Even if he is SK, SK at this point is probably wants to shoot townies but doesn't want to overlap his shots. So he would be aiming for less obvious townies (which could be beneficial to us, as it gets rid of some controversial townies), and may end up inadvertently hitting scum.
My next read is going to be about risk.nuke. I'm going through some logs and checking a previous game. I'll post it soon.
|
On October 09 2012 07:09 Keirathi wrote:
That I almost 100% believe Mementoss's claim at this point.
As far as BC...I think its about 50/50 whether he's SK or Vet. We don't know enough about the scum numbers or KP to be able to decidedly prove that there's an SK, IMO. And claiming that he was medic protected as a Vet does make some modicum of sense. Its probably what I would do if I knew there were save notifications (ie austin).
I'm...not sure he's worth lynching tomorrow. Even if he is SK, SK at this point is probably wants to shoot townies but doesn't want to overlap his shots. So he would be aiming for less obvious townies (which could be beneficial to us, as it gets rid of some controversial townies), and may end up inadvertently hitting scum.
My next read is going to be about risk.nuke. I'm going through some logs and checking a previous game. I'll post it soon.
Some further thoughts:
One thing that concerns me about the BC = SK thing is that marv and Hapa tried pretty hard to convince us that he was SK. Scum don't necessarily want the SK dead, especially when they are hemorrhaging members. They want townies dead, and, at least early, SK helps with that.
The caveat to this is that eventually the SK is going to have to start trying to hit scum, because to win he has to make it to 1v1v1 LYLO. And, BC being SK would eventually scare mafia, because I believe he is good enough to pick out the scum at some point.
But again, we don't know for sure that there even is an SK. All we can be certain of is that there was 4 KP night 1, one of which was a claimed vig shot, and 2 on night 2 without a vig and mafia lost 1 member.
|
On October 09 2012 07:22 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2012 07:09 Keirathi wrote:
That I almost 100% believe Mementoss's claim at this point.
As far as BC...I think its about 50/50 whether he's SK or Vet. We don't know enough about the scum numbers or KP to be able to decidedly prove that there's an SK, IMO. And claiming that he was medic protected as a Vet does make some modicum of sense. Its probably what I would do if I knew there were save notifications (ie austin).
I'm...not sure he's worth lynching tomorrow. Even if he is SK, SK at this point is probably wants to shoot townies but doesn't want to overlap his shots. So he would be aiming for less obvious townies (which could be beneficial to us, as it gets rid of some controversial townies), and may end up inadvertently hitting scum.
My next read is going to be about risk.nuke. I'm going through some logs and checking a previous game. I'll post it soon. People keep saying how ahead we are, is that really true? do you think we're at a 13-2-1 situation right now or 12-3-1 or what? I see those still being pretty balanced. We've lost some power roles, scum has lost their GF. And, most importantly, we have had almost no discussion for two cycles. How do you see us as so far ahead of scum that SK wants to eliminate townies? VE, Kier, thanks for participating. Its nice to see you guys posting more. VE: if Kush were to be Vig'd who would you want to lynch next Day? Kier: What do you think of our lurking contingent, there are a lot of good players not joining in, which of the is towniest and which scummiest?
I think we're probably at 12-3-1. General rule of thumb AFAIK is 1 scum per 5 players. So in a 25 player game, theoretically there would be 5 scum. 4 or 6 is also possible for balance reasons, but default assumption would be 5.
Some further reasoning for that: In general, scum KP is (alive mafia/2) rounded up. That would give 3 KP on night 1, but then only 2 on night 2 (since marv died). Which fits with what has happened (and why I'm hesitant to say that there's an SK).
As far as the lurkers/good players thing, I'll really have to get back to you. As terrible as I know it sounds (and its really obvious already), I really haven't been spending that much time going back through the game and making reads. Its just been really hard to get motivated to pay more attention when I have 1) another game that is taking a ton of attention and 2) this game having 2 full cycles in a row of guaranteed scum. Yes, I understand that's terrible. I apologize to BM24 and my fellow townies.
But, for a quick "gut" response, I would say slOosh looks the worst of the lurkers vets, and VE the towniest. I'll expand on that before deadline.
|
Promised reads:
risk.nuke
First off, I agree with iamperfection's point about risk. I don't think Hapa (before he was caught by fuba) would have been pushing him so hard if risk was scum.
Some more reasons why I think that he is town: go back and look at Dwarf Fortress Mini and compare his filter to here. So many things feel the same, from his lurking, to randomly throwing out a big case, down even to his anger when people call him out. And I lead a mislynch on him in that game for all of those things. After the risk lynch went through, marv pm'd me on irc and told me why that lynch was a mistake: risk may be lurky/etc/etc, but he has one very distinct town tell; however sporadic, he DOES put effort in. I don't 100% think that he is town (in general, I am loathe to give 'guaranteed town' reads), but there's no way that I would want to lynch him tomorrow, or even the day after that. Pretty much only at LYLO would I give him a good, hard look.
VisceraEyes
This is a much less...concrete...read, having never played with VE. But I have a pretty thorough friendship with marv, and I've talked to him at length about how we both play Mafia in general. And, I just don't see scum marv buddying so hard with a scum VE on day 1, especially when VE had been in some hot water all game. I feel that the much more likely explanation is that town VE was sheeping marv (which, IIRC, is something that he likes to do) with the Node vote, and marv was just playing off of it. Part of that is something that marv specifically said to me once: "You're never going to catch me as scum on day 1 based on some behavioral tells" which I 100% believe. It's been said time and time again, but he's just too crafty to give away extra teammates of his like that. Call that WIFOM if you want, but I just don't see it.
slOosh
Here's where I think we have our scum.
Look at his opinions on the Node switch and why he picks Shady over Node:
On October 02 2012 12:33 slOosh wrote:
Guh didn't realize how much time I actually take to read. Between Node and Shady Sands I'm leaning Shady.
With a total lack of follow through after his troll antics, he has disrupted early day discussion and dropped off. Not lynching him today on the basis of a potential modkill is stupid - he could easily trade his life for hurting day 2 discussion as well and he might not even be lynched.
The nature of the Node lynch is really strange. Reason enough to lean the former.
##Vote: Shady Sands
On October 02 2012 12:49 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2012 12:36 austinmcc wrote:On October 02 2012 12:33 slOosh wrote:
Guh didn't realize how much time I actually take to read. Between Node and Shady Sands I'm leaning Shady.
With a total lack of follow through after his troll antics, he has disrupted early day discussion and dropped off. Not lynching him today on the basis of a potential modkill is stupid - he could easily trade his life for hurting day 2 discussion as well and he might not even be lynched.
The nature of the Node lynch is really strange. Reason enough to lean the former.
##Vote: Shady Sands Node lynch is "strange." Is Node himself scummy? Are Node's posts scummy? Node is scummy. I think what you found about his post was valid. However we can only lynch 1 at a time and I find Shady a better target for the reasons I stated. The strangeness of Node's lynch was that there was a disconnect between the push and the votes - you tossed out a bunch of names and his was just picked up. It's enough to sway me to Shady.
So Node was scummy, but the only reason he decided to vote Shady instead was because the swing wagon felt "strange", which was enough that Shady's trolling made him more likely scum than Node. That reasoning feels so weak to me that its hard to believe that was the thought process of a townie.
Aside from that, its kind of hard to put into words. It just doesn't feel like...he's actually trying to help town? I mean, he's been pretty lurky, but he was lurky in LVII as well. But in that game, even as third party that really had no care for what happened in the actual game, he still went out of his way to help town by finding scum and pushing them. He just hasn't done that this game. Again, it feels a lot like Dwarf Fortress Mini (he was scum), where he just comes in occasionally and remarks on the current goings-on in the thread and then stayed pretty disassociated from the game for the rest of the time.
I'm going to get food right now and I'm not entirely sure I'll be back before deadline (hence why I'm posting now instead of waiting until deadline), but if I don't go do anything else after dinner and have time I'll write up some thoughts on kush and maybe more people when I get back.
|
@Prom: regarding Matt, I'm honestly a little torn. Scum Matt is pretty known for resorting to lurking when he's not actively bussing his teamates, but I don't see him bussing with teamates lynched on 2 consecutive games. And, his inactivity isn't necessarily alignment indicative because its not unique to this game (IE he hasn't been posting in Aperture either).
Sorry, only 8 minutes left to deadline and I don't think I have enough time to really scour through and try to come up with a more refined opinion than that.
Now to kush: I hard defended kush on day 1, while simultaneously bashing his play with everything that I had. Because scum-meta kush is known to flip-the-fuck-out when you start railing on him. I kind of thought it was a good idea, and that if I could get him to flip out that maybe it would give me a better read of him, since his play in general is so ass-backwards that its hard to really decide.
However, in GSL II, he played a pretty damn rage-free game as scum. That convinces me that he took Hapa's advice at the end of Newbie XXVII (I think?) to heart, and realize that if he kept the attitude up as scum that he would be caught easily by stronger players. Combine that with the fact that marv was godfather and could have been mentoring him and reminding him to keep his cool and it makes me rescind my earlier hard defense.
That being said, I really don't think I'm anywhere close to having a solid read of him. I could certainly make a case for him being scum, but he has such weird lapses in logic even as town that I just can't dismiss the possibility yet.
|
Another thing I want to note about Third Party in this game.
There are 2 roles in the OP that could thematically fit as "Third Party". Hitman could be SK-esque (or more likely a mafia role), and Paranoid Arsonist. I don't exactly know what a "paranoid" Arsonist does, but typically arsonists place gas on one target per night, and then on any night after they've put gas on people, they can choose to light them all. And that would account for why we've had a relatively low amount of KP every night.
MAYBE Paranoid means that he is bulletproof. It would make some amount of sense thematically. But arsonist is already a pretty powerful role (albeit extremely risky with deciding how long to prolong using your kills), and I've never seen a bulletproof variation of one. Only having to worry about being lynched would probably be OP as hell.
|
I already said I think that there is just as likely a chance that BC is vet as there is that he's third party. Neither option makes more sense than the other.
|
Well, if he is Bulletproof Arsonist, it is 100% in our best interest to kill him right now. Because that would mean that tomorrow, up to 3 extra people would blow up with the day post (assuming everyone he has "primed" hasn't already been NK'd by mafia or lynched). Unless you think he is likely to hit a scum in those 3 people.
|
On October 09 2012 14:07 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2012 13:28 Keirathi wrote:
I already said I think that there is just as likely a chance that BC is vet as there is that he's third party. Neither option makes more sense than the other. You have no problem with the fact that his initial response to the accusation is to cast doubt on mementoss and discredit him even if he were town?
I can 100% understand his annoyance if he was really under the impression that watchers also see if their target leaves to go visit someone else during the night. If that's what I thought watchers did, then my first thought with Mementoss supposedly seeing that I didn't leave when he watched me, then yes I would assume that he was mafia and try discrediting him.
@BC:
Have links to the games where they worked like that, for reference?
|
@VE:
Why was marv so willing to bus Node on day1, but spent time hard defending kush? I certainly don't think its impossible, but that's a pretty extreme dichotomy.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
