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EBWOP: posted the @ ShadySands bit by accident (instead of clicking preview)
@ ShadySands
Regarding Lvdr
What I am concerned about is his lack of scumhunting so far. Policy may be a basis to suspect someone, but isn't a basis to lynch someone. He hasn't been actively hunting scummy behavior as I would have liked. I find Axero more suspicious for now though.
The point about Lvdr "narrowing suspicions" is interesting, but I consider it a null tell until we have more information. I got a townie lynched (as mafia) on that same reasoning in XXI, and I don't consider the lurker-list to be necessarily mafia motivated based on these actions. Furthermore, the players he listed were the lurkiest at that point in the game.
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@ Axero
On August 10 2012 19:27 Axero wrote:I should have taken more time to read through the posts and anaylize them. Bad posts on my part. Now to the brunt of it. Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 01:43 Hapahauli wrote:On August 09 2012 14:22 Axero wrote:
That doesn't mean Hapa is a townie. Scum know who eachother are, therefore Hapa could know your alignment and could be setting you up to get lynched. It's a good way to shift focus to someone else while also seeming like a townie.
It is also possible that they are both scum. Setting someone up as a sacrifice to ensure everyone views the other as a townie would seem like a very effective strategy.
Just my two cents.
(Post made from mobile so apologies for lack of quotes) This post makes absolutely no sense. Your first "theory": YH is town and I am mafia. Somehow, my exchange with YourHarry is a ploy for me to get YH lynched. Hell I haven't pointed any suspicion at YH! How exactly does this theory make sense? Even with spoiling that you're joking, you're still putting the idea in people's heads, whether serious or not.
Oh come on... if I wanted to really put that idea in people's heads, why would I include the joke spoiler? I didn't assume that people wouldn't read it.
Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 09:16 Hapahauli wrote:
Your second "theory":
Mafia do not seriously bus each other early in Day 1. Maybe a mini-argument to distance themselves from one another (like the mini-argument between mkfuba and YourHarry early on D1 last game), but never any serious suspicion Hell I don't understand what part of our exchange constitutes any suspicion at all.
You have to explain this more Axero. Wild theories won't get you anywhere, especially if they suggest that you haven't read or analyzed the early-game exchange between me and YourHarry. Why do Mafia not bus eachother Day 1? It seems that doing so early would set one of the mafia up in a great spot to lead the game in a direction that highly favors them. I may just be missing the point to not doing so. My thinking when bringing this up is that most of you were in a game together already and if you rolled scum this game, you would still need to match your previous activity, because everyone expects you to play this way. What better way to stay active and make a case against someone else than this? If I'm just completely missing something let me know, but this seems pretty logical from my point of view.
The first, is that I didn't build a case against YourHarry. Therefore the talk about bussing is irrelevant, since I didn't suspect him of anything!
The second, is that "bussing" implies serious suspicion and really actively trying to get someone lynched (hence "throwing someone under the bus"). That just doesn't happen in mafia games unless someone makes a huge Day 1 blunder. Sure mafia sometimes throw out suspicious at each other sometimes, but it is rarely significant unless it's sure their parter were to be lynched. After all, it's a great way to build town cred for one person, but there's generally no way the second person (who's also playing the game for enjoyment) would agree to such a thing unless he/she has a high chance of getting lynched.
You're suspicious to me Hapa, that hasn't changed as of yet, regardless of lack of evidence.
Find some evidence, find some motive, or hell find something. Do you think that you're helping the town by stating suspicious without reasoning? I don't care who your suspicions are, but you better provide reasoning if you do so.
Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 17:27 YourHarry wrote:
It is possible that Hapa is scum. But the fact that he is being active does not increase that chance. He has been active as townie before, and whether or not he is actively trying to match that meta is unclear.
But let's suppose Hapa is scum. Who do you think are his scum partners? Who do you think can be cleared as town?
As far as who else I think is scum... I have no personal reads on anyone else yet, but much of the arguements against lvdr I find myself agreeing with. And who I think can be cleared as town, I find myself agreeing with much of what mkfuba07 is saying, so as of right now I'm saying town for him. YourHarry, even though you're against Hapa as far as me being scum goes, I still can't really place you as town in my book quite yet, but you're closer to town than scum right now. This post from iamperfection is really what is making me a bit cautious. Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 07:18 iamperfection wrote:
Lvdr defends me because he knows im town in hopes that i will go after someone else. Lvdr then encourages me to make new case in hopes to get attention on someone else. I'll try to start adding good analysis.
What is it about that post from iamperfection - does it make you additionally suspicious of Lvdr? You have to explain these things.
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@ Everyone:
Since we're quickly approaching the lynch deadline, please start stating your primary suspicion(s) and thinking about casting your votes. There are several players who don't have any strong stances, and that's unacceptable this close to the lynch.
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I am currently most suspicious of Sideni (just in case I didn't make that clear enough yet)
I could see the merits of lynching lvdr or Axero too, but I'd be a bit more hesitant on them
Other than that, there's still a few people that didn't post anything substantial yet...
Though in my opinion we don't need to policy-lynch a lurker right now.
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Can you outline your suspicions of Sideni? I think the case on Sideni is comprised of a lot of OMGUS.
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Also, why the hesitancy against Lvdr and Axero? What part of the suspicions against them do you feel aren't valid (or are less valid than yours against Sideni)?
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On August 11 2012 01:00 Hapahauli wrote:
Can you outline your suspicions of Sideni? I think the case on Sideni is comprised of a lot of OMGUS.
Context: Sideni already misunderstood some smaller things beforehand, in retrospect I see that as intentional.
1) I point out a scummy post by him:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=27#530
In itself not too bad, just a bit scummy flavored.
2) but this one is where I start seeing him as scum:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=27#533
He somehow deduces out of my 1) post that I'm defending Lvdr (something I didn't even indirectly do) and in addition to that, he intentionally (I feel safe to assume by now) misunderstands me yet again, to fabricate a contradiction in my posts.
3) Even after I point out he's spouting random nonsense, he just doesn't let his weak claims rest
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=28#547
I adressed his post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=28#550, but since he went to bed and hasn't appeared ever since, I still have no answer. Not that I'm expecting much of it.
Yes, I'm probably biased since he put his "case" on me, but can you honestly say you see a town motivation behind his actions? Or even basic logic? Hell, I'd be happy with basic logic.
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@ Hapa
I'm not going to defend what I have already said was a bad post.
In your post you say the final straw for voting for me was:
On August 10 2012 13:29 Hapahauli wrote:In regards to the above, I think points 1-3 could be null or bad-townie tells given the proper context. Point 4 however I find extremely scummy. Just look at this quote: Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 09:44 Axero wrote:Since the game started and I didn't know I'd be in it I had previous plans. I've been checking the thread and still trying to feel people out, but since nothing really had anything to do with me personally, I haven't replied. (Not the best play, but again, first game  ) As for your first criticism, those two statements I made were my response to YH, not actual suspicions against you, kind of just possibilities. But yes, at this point, it is my gut reaction to your actions. In the middle of a game of DotA atm, so I'm sure this didn't answer everything you wanted. I'll respond in a bit. The excuse is the thing that really gets to me. He's not just saying that he's a newb (normal/badtownie tell) - he's using it as an excuse for not having read the thread, not having provided analysis, and general lurkiness. I find this scummy.
Why did you decide this was the breaking point to which I could no longer be a town, in your eyes?
If I had mentioned me having other plans during the night earlier (like you and a couple others did), would this have changed your view toward the statement, or would you still feel the same way?
The only evidence you have on me not being town is some bad logic posts and excuse posts, that a few others have disagreed with you on. As for Day 1 lynching, your activity isn't a good giveaway and my suspicions remain a gut feeling.
Lvdr seems to be pointing at several people currently. About 80% of his posts this game have been on the topic of lurkers and calling lurkers out, instead of actually discussing anything that actually involves other people's posts. He has a couple, but not many.
##Vote Lvdr
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On August 11 2012 01:02 Hapahauli wrote:
Also, why the hesitancy against Lvdr and Axero? What part of the suspicions against them do you feel aren't valid (or are less valid than yours against Sideni)?
Axero is just a lurker to me - in fact I see much of your suspicion towards him as OMGUS since he FoS'd you early in his posts, also your assumption that he was told to not lurk by the mafia coach.
I don't share your assumption about the coach, and I can't OMGUS him, so to me, he's just a lurker with slightly scummy posts.
I wouldn't call it hesitancy - I'd be kinda okay with lynching him after all. I just think Sideni is a better target. That my be biased, but it's how I feel about it atm.
Getting to lvdr in a sec
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I'm interested to know why you still consider me a lurker. I feel as if I've been fairly active recently.
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The other person I would be willing to lynch is Axero. In multiple places his thread reading has been called into question, and here is one more:
Lvdr seems to be pointing at several people currently. About 80% of his posts this game have been on the topic of lurkers and calling lurkers out, instead of actually discussing anything that actually involves other people's posts. He has a couple, but not many.
First of all (at time of writing) I am only pointing at Sideni. Second, if you actually read my filter you'll see your 80% lurker post claim to be comical. Both claims are not only incorrect, but easily verifiable by reading.
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@ Axero
At the time I called you a lurker, you only had two posts. Even now, your post count isn't particularly high in comparison to the more active players. I'm most concerned about this though:
You only had two posts 24 hours into the game, which is suspicious given your first post.
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@ Lvdr
You've been switching targets pretty erratically. 80% is probably an overstatement, but you've been focusing on it quite a bit.
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Does the day end when a majority of votes is reached? Or will we be able to change votes up to the deadline?
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Alright, lvdr has lower priority because I think most of the case against him comes from the clusterfuck between him, YH and mkfuba (from this page on pretty much), which I assume will make sense once we know some flips, but right now, I'm not sure how to read it.
But as I write this he posts:
On August 11 2012 01:19 Lvdr wrote:
Regarding my apparent lack of scumhunting: I was the first to make a case against Sideni, however, Dandel started grilling Sideni so I decided to back off. In my opinion, Sideni has not done a particularly good job of defending himself. The strange analogies don't mean anything and contribute to a filter that is incredibly fluffy.
Just because I decided to question him a bit, doesn't mean you shouldn't. You had the same reasoning in game 0.5, going so far as to not post cases on scummy players because the "good ones were already taken".
That is a reasoning I can't share, and it looks scummy to me. But in game 0.5 you were town, so I don't think I can use that as a scum tell comfortably.
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@ Hapa
It's a fast paced game.  I'm still excited to play, even if you can't see it in my posts. Learning as I go.
Fluff:
(Congrats on the wedding btw)
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Haven't heard from mkfuba07 in awhile. Shortly after voting for Lvdr he has actually disappeared. Does this lack of activity strike anyone else as odd?
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EPT
