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On August 10 2012 08:47 Dandel Ion wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 08:28 Sideni wrote:On August 10 2012 07:59 Lvdr wrote:
How does changing the order in any way change whether there was a scum tell or not? Whether I happened to say town or mafia first I think the suspicion would have been similar. Therefore, Sideni's addition reads as quite fluffy to me.
Oh, I thought it was obvious, so I guess I skipped on that point ... =/ Well, first, if you only say "Both Hapa and YH are mafia ?" you look like a real town player (you care for the right thing). To illustrate myself, I'll have to use an example. Let's say you have oranges and grapefruits in a bag and you can't see them. Now, let's say you want an orange. You'll put your hand on one, you'll take it out (closing your eyes) and you'll ask the guy holding the bag : "Is this an orange ?" because that's the orange you want However, you asked : "Is this an orange or a grapefruit ?" Someone wouldn't talk about the grapefruit at all... Now, let's reverse the words : "Is this a grapefruit or an orange ?" First, you would never ask about the grapefruit at all !
Hmmm nevermind, I don't have to keep going on my explanation, I just realized how dumb my logic was xD
I'm sorry to everybody for the confusion xDWell, at least, the fact that you wouldn't usually ask for town is still right ! Bolded part and your analogy that doesn't go anywhere looks pretty scummy to me. There's basically no goal, direction or reason behind this, but you still feel the need to share it with us. You apologize for the confusion, but good town play, in my book, is trying to AVIOD confusion. Confusion, gray shades and everything inbetween just give scum openings for misinterpretations. Please, in the bolded part you clearly showed that you have the theoretical ability to think your posts through, the only thing left is to actually do it.
#In before this devolves into a pointless D1 OMGUS-flamefest.
@ Dande: So Sideni acknowledges that he made a confusing post, so you want to punish him for admitting his mistake? The real scummy play there would be to confuse town and then never mention anything until someone brings it up again.
Sideni here is playing like a bad townie, but I thought we agreed before the restart that bad townie play is not necessarily an indicator of scum play.
What I don't understand out of your posts, Dande, is why you are so bent on tunneling Sideni on Day 1, when we are least sure of anyone's alignment. And note how Sideni hasn't actually FoS'd you--why do you think he's calling you scum?
@ Sideni: I'm going to keep this simple. Make your posts logical, and easy to follow. Instead of posting with heavy lists of rhetorical questions, make points that drive towards conclusions--either calling someone a confirmed town, or confirmed scum. And since you're a newer player, it would probably be best for you to hold back and digest your thoughts into longer posts that add something to the thread or directly justify a vote.
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On August 10 2012 12:55 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 12:25 Shady Sands wrote:On August 10 2012 09:47 Hapahauli wrote:On August 10 2012 09:44 Axero wrote:Since the game started and I didn't know I'd be in it I had previous plans. I've been checking the thread and still trying to feel people out, but since nothing really had anything to do with me personally, I haven't replied. (Not the best play, but again, first game  ) So let me get this straight - your strategy going in to this game was to lurk until your name was mentioned, then FOS the guy who called you out for lurking? As for your first criticism, those two statements I made were my response to YH, not actual suspicions against you, kind of just possibilities. But yes, at this point, it is my gut reaction to your actions.
In the middle of a game of DotA atm, so I'm sure this didn't answer everything you wanted. I'll respond in a bit. Well hearing your "strategy" - you better have some damn good explanations for your play so far. I'm getting echoes of Golbat from XXII. Similarly bad play D1, resulted in a lynch of the Vigi. Since it's a newbie game, I think we should be a little nicer on the guy. It might be better for all of us. I obs'd XXII, and Golbat wasn't NEAR this lurky D1. Golbat was fairly active (~1.5 page filter) and didn't play as bad as you suggest. Axero on the other hand has demonstrated anti-town mentality so far. He also mentioned he'd respond to my earlier post after he was finished with his DOTA game, but never got around to it.
Got it. What I was concerned with was pushing a newbie so hard that they end up in a situation where the more they try to defend themselves, the deeper the hole gets, and inevitably it creates a situation where they become the "easy lynch".
That being said I've been watching Axero too (if you read my earlier posts). He hasn't crossed the scum threshold yet but he is something I am keeping an eye on. But I want to get a neutral read on him before I start the pressure... I don't want my read on him to be colored by the fact that I am pressuring him.
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Admittedly I'm a bit concerned that he could be Synystyr 2.0. If I don't see Axero' response by tomorrow morning however, he is my strongest scumread at the moment, and will be getting my vote.
Since you're around, what do you think about GoodKarma's lurkiness? You were in XXII, and I'm curious what you think of it based off of GK's meta?
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On August 10 2012 13:00 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 12:55 Hapahauli wrote:On August 10 2012 12:25 Shady Sands wrote:On August 10 2012 09:47 Hapahauli wrote:On August 10 2012 09:44 Axero wrote:Since the game started and I didn't know I'd be in it I had previous plans. I've been checking the thread and still trying to feel people out, but since nothing really had anything to do with me personally, I haven't replied. (Not the best play, but again, first game ) So let me get this straight - your strategy going in to this game was to lurk until your name was mentioned, then FOS the guy who called you out for lurking? As for your first criticism, those two statements I made were my response to YH, not actual suspicions against you, kind of just possibilities. But yes, at this point, it is my gut reaction to your actions.
In the middle of a game of DotA atm, so I'm sure this didn't answer everything you wanted. I'll respond in a bit. Well hearing your "strategy" - you better have some damn good explanations for your play so far. I'm getting echoes of Golbat from XXII. Similarly bad play D1, resulted in a lynch of the Vigi. Since it's a newbie game, I think we should be a little nicer on the guy. It might be better for all of us. I obs'd XXII, and Golbat wasn't NEAR this lurky D1. Golbat was fairly active (~1.5 page filter) and didn't play as bad as you suggest. Axero on the other hand has demonstrated anti-town mentality so far. He also mentioned he'd respond to my earlier post after he was finished with his DOTA game, but never got around to it. Got it. What I was concerned with was pushing a newbie so hard that they end up in a situation where the more they try to defend themselves, the deeper the hole gets, and inevitably it creates a situation where they become the "easy lynch". That being said I've been watching Axero too (if you read my earlier posts). He hasn't crossed the scum threshold yet but he is something I am keeping an eye on. But I want to get a neutral read on him before I start the pressure... I don't want my read on him to be colored by the fact that I am pressuring him.
There is also a similarity between Axero and Golbat last game: saying you have things to post without posting them.
Tough to read though: as always bad play is not necessarily scummy play.
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On August 10 2012 13:12 Lvdr wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 13:00 Shady Sands wrote:On August 10 2012 12:55 Hapahauli wrote:On August 10 2012 12:25 Shady Sands wrote:On August 10 2012 09:47 Hapahauli wrote:On August 10 2012 09:44 Axero wrote:Since the game started and I didn't know I'd be in it I had previous plans. I've been checking the thread and still trying to feel people out, but since nothing really had anything to do with me personally, I haven't replied. (Not the best play, but again, first game ) So let me get this straight - your strategy going in to this game was to lurk until your name was mentioned, then FOS the guy who called you out for lurking? As for your first criticism, those two statements I made were my response to YH, not actual suspicions against you, kind of just possibilities. But yes, at this point, it is my gut reaction to your actions.
In the middle of a game of DotA atm, so I'm sure this didn't answer everything you wanted. I'll respond in a bit. Well hearing your "strategy" - you better have some damn good explanations for your play so far. I'm getting echoes of Golbat from XXII. Similarly bad play D1, resulted in a lynch of the Vigi. Since it's a newbie game, I think we should be a little nicer on the guy. It might be better for all of us. I obs'd XXII, and Golbat wasn't NEAR this lurky D1. Golbat was fairly active (~1.5 page filter) and didn't play as bad as you suggest. Axero on the other hand has demonstrated anti-town mentality so far. He also mentioned he'd respond to my earlier post after he was finished with his DOTA game, but never got around to it. Got it. What I was concerned with was pushing a newbie so hard that they end up in a situation where the more they try to defend themselves, the deeper the hole gets, and inevitably it creates a situation where they become the "easy lynch". That being said I've been watching Axero too (if you read my earlier posts). He hasn't crossed the scum threshold yet but he is something I am keeping an eye on. But I want to get a neutral read on him before I start the pressure... I don't want my read on him to be colored by the fact that I am pressuring him. There is also a similarity between Axero and Golbat last game: saying you have things to post without posting them. Tough to read though: as always bad play is not necessarily scummy play.
If that was the basis of my suspicion on Axero alone, I'd agree. However, there's a couple of more things that concern me:
1) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=22#423
In Axero's first post, he's very excited and happy to play the game:
... then all of a sudden he lurk lurk lurks, and openly claims to have not been reading the thread.
2) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=23#460
He posts the above, which is filled with pretty terrible logic (mafia bussing people early on day 1, lol?)
3) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=27#535
He posts an FOS on me based on vague logic and gut-feeling.
4) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=27#538
In this post, he uses newbiness as an excuse for not checking the thread and promises to respond after his DOTA game.
So yeah, that's my case on him so far, and I just convinced myself to vote for him. If you'd like this in Wall-O-Text format, let me know. I think it's easier to read/understand for most people this way though.
##Vote Axero
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In regards to the above, I think points 1-3 could be null or bad-townie tells given the proper context. Point 4 however I find extremely scummy. Just look at this quote:
On August 10 2012 09:44 Axero wrote:Since the game started and I didn't know I'd be in it I had previous plans. I've been checking the thread and still trying to feel people out, but since nothing really had anything to do with me personally, I haven't replied. (Not the best play, but again, first game ) As for your first criticism, those two statements I made were my response to YH, not actual suspicions against you, kind of just possibilities. But yes, at this point, it is my gut reaction to your actions. In the middle of a game of DotA atm, so I'm sure this didn't answer everything you wanted. I'll respond in a bit.
The excuse is the thing that really gets to me. He's not just saying that he's a newb (normal/badtownie tell) - he's using it as an excuse for not having read the thread, not having provided analysis, and general lurkiness. I find this scummy.
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I have read through everyone's filters, and have a few case points on who I see as most scummy right now:
Sideni:
One scum-read I currently have on him is mistaking the name of the person who was getting married (Kronen). This was mentioned before, but I feel it is an important point. If you're struggling to read and write in English to the point of scrutinizing every word, how can you make this kind of mistake of names? This fits the profile of an unconcerned scum combing the thread before posting. It may not seem big, but in my last game (NMM XXII) the last scum we caught made this same mistake.
I believe it's been said before, and I too agree that his posts are a bit fluffy. Especially considering that if writing every English word is meticulous, I would expect his posts to generally be very concise and succinct. Instead, we've seen posts like this one:
On August 10 2012 08:28 Sideni wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 07:40 Dandel Ion wrote:
If you're (vanilla) town, why would you be concerned with being second on a case?
Is my mentality just wrong here? Well, I either answer to his post saying that I don't even care defending myself or I explain myself (just as I did) or I just don't answer... What is the smartest choice in your opinion ? I would gladly sacrifice myself to turn green to reveal that he's suspicious. However, I don't think it's smart  If I just say that I don't care, it just feels to me that I don't pay attention to all details =/ If I don't answer, I'm being a lurker and this is bad for my party ! Gotta keep talking and if the talking can lead to something, then it's perfect ! :D So, last choice, I decided to explain myself. There's nothing wrong about explaining yourself ever ! Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 07:59 Lvdr wrote:
How does changing the order in any way change whether there was a scum tell or not? Whether I happened to say town or mafia first I think the suspicion would have been similar. Therefore, Sideni's addition reads as quite fluffy to me.
Oh, I thought it was obvious, so I guess I skipped on that point ... =/ Well, first, if you only say "Both Hapa and YH are mafia ?" you look like a real town player (you care for the right thing). To illustrate myself, I'll have to use an example. Let's say you have oranges and grapefruits in a bag and you can't see them. Now, let's say you want an orange. You'll put your hand on one, you'll take it out (closing your eyes) and you'll ask the guy holding the bag : "Is this an orange ?" because that's the orange you want However, you asked : "Is this an orange or a grapefruit ?" Someone wouldn't talk about the grapefruit at all... Now, let's reverse the words : "Is this a grapefruit or an orange ?" First, you would never ask about the grapefruit at all ! Hmmm nevermind, I don't have to keep going on my explanation, I just realized how dumb my logic was xD I'm sorry to everybody for the confusion xD Well, at least, the fact that you wouldn't usually ask for town is still right !
Two things about this post: the first is I have no idea why a orange or grapefruit metaphor was necessary, or even helpful. The only thing it serves to do, in my opinion, is distract from the rest of the post with a bit of fluff (a bit ironic for a post defending against making fluffy posts). Perhaps Sideni indeed does struggle with the English language, but some of his fluffy posts have indicated to me that it could plausibly be a scum-motivated excuse. The second thing:
"Hmmm nevermind, I don't have to keep going on my explanation, I just realized how dumb my logic was xD
I'm sorry to everybody for the confusion xD"
There is no town-motivated reason whatsoever for making this statement. It's basically saying, "I don't know what I'm doing. Don't listen to me." This statement feels very scum-motivated, as it's a great statement to make if you're trying to keep your head low.
Another quote that gives me a scum read on Sideni:
On August 10 2012 08:41 Sideni wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 08:36 Dandel Ion wrote:
I think you misunderstood a little... I'm saying you shouldn't hold back anything just because you're concerned how it'd reflect on you. Taking note of that ! I just don't want a mislynch for town xD
It feels like he's trying a little too hard here to show he's pro-town. Why does something this obvious need to be said? This quote feels scum-motivated to me.
For the reasons I've mentioned above:
##FoS: Sideni
Axero:
Axero's mentioned on more than one occasion that this is his first game. Describing noobiness is a common scum trait, as it allows them to discredit themselves and have people not take them as seriously, or read as much into their cases for mislynches as they should be. He then goes on to describe how he plans to post without reading the thread.:
On August 10 2012 09:56 Axero wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 09:47 Hapahauli wrote:On August 10 2012 09:44 Axero wrote:Since the game started and I didn't know I'd be in it I had previous plans. I've been checking the thread and still trying to feel people out, but since nothing really had anything to do with me personally, I haven't replied. (Not the best play, but again, first game ) So let me get this straight - your strategy going in to this game was to lurk until your name was mentioned, then FOS the guy who called you out for lurking? As for your first criticism, those two statements I made were my response to YH, not actual suspicions against you, kind of just possibilities. But yes, at this point, it is my gut reaction to your actions.
In the middle of a game of DotA atm, so I'm sure this didn't answer everything you wanted. I'll respond in a bit. Well hearing your "strategy" - you better have some damn good explanations for your play so far. Haha, no I wasn't planning on lurking. I was actually going to go ahead with my plans without checking the forum at all, but someone coaching me suggested i still check.
You should never post without reading first. This is strongly anti-town play. Combined with your semi-lurky behavior, you're looking scummy to me.:
##FoS: Axero
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On August 10 2012 13:05 Hapahauli wrote:
Admittedly I'm a bit concerned that he could be Synystyr 2.0. If I don't see Axero' response by tomorrow morning however, he is my strongest scumread at the moment, and will be getting my vote.
Since you're around, what do you think about GoodKarma's lurkiness? You were in XXII, and I'm curious what you think of it based off of GK's meta?
GK didn't post a lot in XXII, but when he did, he made long posts with good analysis. I'm not that worried yet, but if he still doesn't get us something by 8-10 hours before the lynch deadline then that would be weird. If that's the case, then I'd be willing to push for a lynch, if no other candidates have emerged yet.
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@ GoodKarma:
We're on the same page about Axero, but I have some questions about your case on Sideni:
One scum-read I currently have on him is mistaking the name of the person who was getting married (Kronen). This was mentioned before, but I feel it is an important point. If you're struggling to read and write in English to the point of scrutinizing every word, how can you make this kind of mistake of names? This fits the profile of an unconcerned scum combing the thread before posting. It may not seem big, but in my last game (NMM XXII) the last scum we caught made this same mistake.
I was obs'ing that game, and if the "last scum" you're talking about is Alan, I don't get what you mean. This just seems wrong to me.
As for the other stuff (fluff, trying to hard to be pro town, etc), I consider them null-reads for now.
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@ Yourharry
On August 10 2012 12:30 YourHarry wrote:
##Unvote
Is it acceptable to take into consideration personal coaching experiences to speculate players that are being coached?
Some good discussion going. I also want to point out the lurkers in this game. If you are not going to be active, please replace out. Axero, if you are going too busy to invest considerable efforts in this game, please replace out. Goodkarma, put more thoughts into your post. And not having anything to add to the discussion is not an excuse. There are always rooms for contribution. Keep reading, repeatedly if needed, until you do.
I will be back in a bit to post my thoughts. Also would really like the moderator to allow speculation on who is being coached. As far as I am concerned, scums can lie about their coaching situation, so anything should go.
I don't see why it isn't allowed, but I doubt you can build a convincing argument based on your views of someone getting coached. It may convince you, but I can't see you convincing other members of the town without having had the same coaching experiences as you.
Also, now that you've unvoted mkfuba, who are you suspicious of? Any strong scumreads so far?
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@Hapa:
Regarding NMM XXII:
I presented the case point of mistaking names in my voting post against Alan near the very end of the game. The relevant portion of that post is below:
On August 08 2012 11:13 goodkarma wrote:-snip- He also seems to not be very invested in the game, as he has mistaken names in making case points on two separate occasions. This could be true as scum or town, but he has posted enough in my opinion that this feels more likely to be a mistake made by scum, with no interest in real scum-hunting, quickly trying to say enough to get by. Show nested quote +On July 31 2012 04:20 alan133 wrote:
-snip-
I've mistaken two players twice, and in one of them I am EBWOP-ing for mistaken a player for another. I apologize for playing this poorly, I will be more careful next time. -snip- I look forward to seeing what Alan has to say about my case points.
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@Axero
You still haven't contributed much to this game. Your only content post is this:
On August 09 2012 14:22 Axero wrote:
That doesn't mean Hapa is a townie. Scum know who eachother are, therefore Hapa could know your alignment and could be setting you up to get lynched. It's a good way to shift focus to someone else while also seeming like a townie.
It is also possible that they are both scum. Setting someone up as a sacrifice to ensure everyone views the other as a townie would seem like a very effective strategy.
Just my two cents.
(Post made from mobile so apologies for lack of quotes)
Let's suppose that Hapa did not include the spoiler that he was joking. Let's also suppose that I am town. Do you think Hapa would directly contradict his previous stance on lynching a bad townie in order to "set me up to be lynched"?
Here is your other post that is purely based on your imagination:
On August 10 2012 09:28 Axero wrote:
FOS Hapa
I've actually been pretty busy since the game started, but no I haven't made many posts. I'm sorting out my feelings on people and as this is my first game it's taking me some time to get used to it. However you are very quick to point to several people. The feeling I'm getting from you is that you're only being active to avoid suspicion. Seems like you're over doing it a little bit. Might be a snap reaction but it is how I feel at this point in the game.
It is possible that Hapa is scum. But the fact that he is being active does not increase that chance. He has been active as townie before, and whether or not he is actively trying to match that meta is unclear.
But let's suppose Hapa is scum. Who do you think are his scum partners? Who do you think can be cleared as town?
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@Hapa
Have you ever been coached as town? If so, you don't feel the vibes that at least one of the players is being coached currently?
Also, regarding your case on Axero:
Link 1: He continues to lurk and I would be willing to place my vote on Axero for the policy reason.
Link 2: I personally don't think it is out of question for scums to bus each other on day 1. I can imagine townies being paranoid of such instances. Lvdr, who I think is town, also posited the possibility that we are scums together.
Link 3: I agree with you that Axero's case has no substance. Scums, when pressured to give reads, may grasp at whatever straw to fabricate a case, just to fit-in as a townie. While he may be correct that you, Hapa, is actively trying to convince us that you are a pro-town player, there is no evidence for this. At least, he does not provide any. And since logical errors are not necessarily a scum tell, I am hesitant to sheep you here that Axero is scum.
Also, I wonder if scum Axero would have chosen you, Hapa, as one of his scum suspects. It seems that he could have readily sheep-ed existing cases or picked on one of the lurkers.
Link 4: I have heard/read from multiple people that advertising newbiness is a town tell. But don't newb towns also bring up their newbiness, when being pressured? (Has he done this excessively? I didn't think this gave me any scum vibes)
In addition, he said he was "coached". Knowing that scums in this game are being coached by marvelosity, I wonder if scum would have readily used the word "coached" when he simply meant that his friend told him to check the PM. WIFOM? Maybe, but I am inclined to think that self-guilt would have made scum Axero think twice.
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On August 09 2012 19:18 mkfuba07 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 15:12 YourHarry wrote:On August 09 2012 15:00 mkfuba07 wrote:
Sorry, getting mega ninja'd over here.
YourHarry:
I don't see why I should have assumed you misread anything. I was unsure if it was my own inability to comprehend how you came to your conclusion or some mistake on your part that was causing me to not come to the same conclusion. In order to find out which was the case, I needed to verify that I was understanding your argument correctly and ask for a clarification of your evidence, because I didn't see any. I did note the possibility that you missed, or pretended to miss, the spoiler, but if you intentionally left it out then I wasn't giving you a "get out of false claim free" card. The way in which you explain and compensate for that mistake is information, just as much as the presence of the mistake itself. OK. I don't think you noted the possibility that I missed the spoiler. This came after I revealed that I indeed missed something from Hapha's post. I want to know when you first asked me for the evidence, if it crossed your mind that I simply may have missed the spoiler or not. As I said, if I had told you "I think you missed this spoiler" then your response could have simply been "Oh, I did miss that spoiler. Sorry about that!" I did that in the Prom case from last game. In an attempt to get as much information flowing into the game as possible, I wanted to discover whether or not you intentionally "misread". I don't know why you would, but that doesn't mean that you don't have a reason to do so. When I asked for evidence from you, my three options were (not in a particular order): 1. I was misunderstanding the post 2. You were intentionally misrepresenting the post 3. You made a mistake in the post If I misunderstood the post, you would clarify it. If you made a mistake, you would either find the mistake immediately or try to clarify it. If you intentionally misrepresented the post, you would almost definitely notice your "mistake" right away. Since you then clarified it and I had not actually misunderstood the post, I feel confident in saying that you simply made a mistake and there was nothing malicious behind it.
On August 09 2012 15:00 mkfuba07 wrote:
Sorry, getting mega ninja'd over here.
YourHarry:
I don't see why I should have assumed you misread anything. I was unsure if it was my own inability to comprehend how you came to your conclusion or some mistake on your part that was causing me to not come to the same conclusion. In order to find out which was the case, I needed to verify that I was understanding your argument correctly and ask for a clarification of your evidence, because I didn't see any. I did note the possibility that you missed, or pretended to miss, the spoiler, but if you intentionally left it out then I wasn't giving you a "get out of false claim free" card. The way in which you explain and compensate for that mistake is information, just as much as the presence of the mistake itself.
So you were testing me? I accept the logic behind not clarifying right away. It was a superior move, than to simply point out the spoiler that I missed. You could have possibly caught the scum this way.
But the thing is: I don't believe you. If you are town, given the context of our posts, your primary goal should have been to determine if my clearance of Hapa as town is merit worthy. And this goal is apparent in your post. And yes, it is possible that in addition to your trying to determine whether Hapa is indeed town, that you were also testing me. But wouldn't you say it is too unnatural and methodical to be a simple townie wanting a clarification?
Instead, it could be that your post was based on your scum motive to fit as a townie (and possibly to frame me based on according to my response). And your perfectly logical explanation behind your actions was custom designed only in afterthought. (I admit. I have no meta evidence to support this. I do not know how you play as town. I could simply be wrong in not giving you enough credit. But having played on the same scum team with you, I do know that scum mkfuba is capable of framing logical reasons around his earlier actions.
More of the same, bolded for emphasis:
On August 09 2012 18:51 mkfuba07 wrote:I apologize about the length, I've been thinking about this for hours XD Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 15:08 YourHarry wrote:
Now, take Lvdr's last quote: "More plausible than yh then?" In context, Lvdr was simply asking Hapha for his opinions on who he thinks is scummier, me or Lvdr. If Lvdr indeed thought that Hapha and I were scums together, I can imagine Lvdr's intention to confirm this read based on Hapha's response. And, mkfuba, by your putative "scum motivation" do you mean Lvdr is actively trying to confuse town by posting incoherent one liners? If so, I find it hard to imagine scums methodically engineering incoherent one liners to confuse town. I've already addressed this in my previous post, but I felt like that was already answered by Hapa. After considering it, I will definitely admit that I made some assumptions about Hapa which carried over into my read on Lvdr. I made an assumption that Hapa would not be suspicious of you, as you hadn't done anything overtly suspicious up to that point, and from what little I know of him from the last two days he doesn't cry scum without a reason. I then assumed that Lvdr would come to the same conclusion. This was a mistake and you can infer from it what you will, but it doesn't hurt my overall read.
Your claim that you made these assumptions (which you claim you made when you initially found Lvdr suspicious), again, appear to be something you fictionalized to explain your earlier actions. None of these assumptions are actually mentioned in your initial case against Lvdr.
##Vote mkfuba
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On August 09 2012 18:51 mkfuba07 wrote:
When he saw it, he thought "They might both be mafia or both be town." That's not how townies think. They're suspicious and are operating under a lack of information. They would consider you two working together as scum after such a quick strong read, but they wouldn't carry that consideration into town because[u] there is no way for two townies to set up such a thing
Here is a scenario, and a likely one: Lvdr thinks that scum Hapa would try to avoid suspicion, thus maintain his meta from previous game regarding policy lynching bad players. Lvdr, however, believes that Hapa may do this in an attempt to bus his scum partner. Thus, Lvdr logically deduces that scum Hapa means scum Harry.
Further, Lvdr thinks that scum Harry probably would not attempt to confirm Hapa as a townie because it would be disadvantageous for the scum team. Although such action could potentially give scum Harry some townie points, Lvdr also believes that Harry and his scum team knows that such townie action can be easily dismissed as WIFOM. Thus, Lvdr does not think Harry is scum unless Hapa is.
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I should have taken more time to read through the posts and anaylize them. Bad posts on my part. Now to the brunt of it.
On August 10 2012 01:43 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 14:22 Axero wrote:
That doesn't mean Hapa is a townie. Scum know who eachother are, therefore Hapa could know your alignment and could be setting you up to get lynched. It's a good way to shift focus to someone else while also seeming like a townie.
It is also possible that they are both scum. Setting someone up as a sacrifice to ensure everyone views the other as a townie would seem like a very effective strategy.
Just my two cents.
(Post made from mobile so apologies for lack of quotes) This post makes absolutely no sense. Your first "theory": YH is town and I am mafia. Somehow, my exchange with YourHarry is a ploy for me to get YH lynched. Hell I haven't pointed any suspicion at YH! How exactly does this theory make sense?
Even with spoiling that you're joking, you're still putting the idea in people's heads, whether serious or not.
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On August 09 2012 09:16 Hapahauli wrote:
Your second "theory":
Mafia do not seriously bus each other early in Day 1. Maybe a mini-argument to distance themselves from one another (like the mini-argument between mkfuba and YourHarry early on D1 last game), but never any serious suspicion Hell I don't understand what part of our exchange constitutes any suspicion at all.
You have to explain this more Axero. Wild theories won't get you anywhere, especially if they suggest that you haven't read or analyzed the early-game exchange between me and YourHarry.
Why do Mafia not bus eachother Day 1? It seems that doing so early would set one of the mafia up in a great spot to lead the game in a direction that highly favors them. I may just be missing the point to not doing so. My thinking when bringing this up is that most of you were in a game together already and if you rolled scum this game, you would still need to match your previous activity, because everyone expects you to play this way. What better way to stay active and make a case against someone else than this?
If I'm just completely missing something let me know, but this seems pretty logical from my point of view.
You're suspicious to me Hapa, that hasn't changed as of yet, regardless of lack of evidence.
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On August 10 2012 17:27 YourHarry wrote:
It is possible that Hapa is scum. But the fact that he is being active does not increase that chance. He has been active as townie before, and whether or not he is actively trying to match that meta is unclear.
But let's suppose Hapa is scum. Who do you think are his scum partners? Who do you think can be cleared as town?
As far as who else I think is scum... I have no personal reads on anyone else yet, but much of the arguements against lvdr I find myself agreeing with.
And who I think can be cleared as town, I find myself agreeing with much of what mkfuba07 is saying, so as of right now I'm saying town for him.
YourHarry, even though you're against Hapa as far as me being scum goes, I still can't really place you as town in my book quite yet, but you're closer to town than scum right now. This post from iamperfection is really what is making me a bit cautious.
On August 10 2012 07:18 iamperfection wrote:
Lvdr defends me because he knows im town in hopes that i will go after someone else. Lvdr then encourages me to make new case in hopes to get attention on someone else.
I'll try to start adding good analysis.
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I like points 1 and 2. Point 3 is mostly OMGUS and Point 4 is kind of irrelevant.
Here's my read on Axero:
The guy talks a lot about what scum might or might not do. This doesn't read to me as scum play, but it's not pro-town either, as doing this helps scum plan what to do to look town. My advice to Axero is to shape up his posting. I don't think it deserves a lynch.
The player I'm most worried about is Lvdr. Since my last read on him, he's posted the following:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 10 2012 12:40 Lvdr wrote:
@shady we have like 19 hours left. Still way too early to have a vote decided. That said, as lurker champion good karma would get my vote Right now. On August 10 2012 12:53 Lvdr wrote:
Go read the thread if you want to get lurker policy. On August 10 2012 13:12 Lvdr wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 13:00 Shady Sands wrote:On August 10 2012 12:55 Hapahauli wrote:On August 10 2012 12:25 Shady Sands wrote:On August 10 2012 09:47 Hapahauli wrote:On August 10 2012 09:44 Axero wrote:Since the game started and I didn't know I'd be in it I had previous plans. I've been checking the thread and still trying to feel people out, but since nothing really had anything to do with me personally, I haven't replied. (Not the best play, but again, first game ) So let me get this straight - your strategy going in to this game was to lurk until your name was mentioned, then FOS the guy who called you out for lurking? As for your first criticism, those two statements I made were my response to YH, not actual suspicions against you, kind of just possibilities. But yes, at this point, it is my gut reaction to your actions.
In the middle of a game of DotA atm, so I'm sure this didn't answer everything you wanted. I'll respond in a bit. Well hearing your "strategy" - you better have some damn good explanations for your play so far. I'm getting echoes of Golbat from XXII. Similarly bad play D1, resulted in a lynch of the Vigi. Since it's a newbie game, I think we should be a little nicer on the guy. It might be better for all of us. I obs'd XXII, and Golbat wasn't NEAR this lurky D1. Golbat was fairly active (~1.5 page filter) and didn't play as bad as you suggest. Axero on the other hand has demonstrated anti-town mentality so far. He also mentioned he'd respond to my earlier post after he was finished with his DOTA game, but never got around to it. Got it. What I was concerned with was pushing a newbie so hard that they end up in a situation where the more they try to defend themselves, the deeper the hole gets, and inevitably it creates a situation where they become the "easy lynch". That being said I've been watching Axero too (if you read my earlier posts). He hasn't crossed the scum threshold yet but he is something I am keeping an eye on. But I want to get a neutral read on him before I start the pressure... I don't want my read on him to be colored by the fact that I am pressuring him. There is also a similarity between Axero and Golbat last game: saying you have things to post without posting them. Tough to read though: as always bad play is not necessarily scummy play.
This, and posts on people's "lurkiness" as well as his own drunk-posting. First, I'm not sure how posting drunk is any less detrimental to town than lurking. Second, why make lurkiness and incoherent posting the sole criteria for how to lynch D1? Note how neatly the following players fit into that category:
Axero
Sideni
Prome
That's a wide range of targets to pick from, no? Scum want to give themselves options when it comes to picking D1 wagons. While not a huge scumtell, trying to keep the wagon options open as late as possible is definitely not townie behavior. Note that when I tried to press Lvdr to commit to a target, he refused to actually even state who he might vote for, saying it was too early. That's because he wants a situation where, like D2 in XXII, there would be only 6 hours to go and votes are spread evenly across 4 different candidates.
Overall, that's my biggest scumread at the moment.
It's not built on newbiness or bad posting or lurkiness, because most of the time, it's hard to ascribe an intent to those actions; that's why I've been arguing so strongly against accusations built on solely those three items. But with Lvdr, we can ascribe intent. His actions serve to slow down the scumhunt and make inconspicuous wagoning easier.
##FoS Lvdr
Will likely switch to vote unless a good defense or a better lynch target comes around.
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@Shady Sands:
The difference between wanting a selection of lynch targets, and having a selection of lynch targets is allmost null to me right now. I wouldn't know if somebody deliberatly tried to keep the options open, but what I know is that I have a bunch of options right now. And I don't think it's possible for me to spot the difference between those stances on day 1. I'm willing to bet that you can't either.
On that note, I'd like the time to highlight something Promethelax said here:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=25#498
SS and Dandel: don't give me this shit. Discuss the game and the players, we essentially got a free meta test day with D1.0 so we are starting from a better position than we were in on the first day one. I, for one, see more from this day than the one before it.
Proclaiming that, he follows up with these two posts:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=26#505
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=26#506
And hasn't said anything since.
Now I know he's away a lot, so don't give me that, but he obviously had the time to post afterwards. But instead of sharing his reads, he vanishes with two no-content posts.
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Hmm so I might be making TL mafia's first excuse for activity - my car got recalled and apartment hunting today is cancelled (or atleast postponed untill next week). I'll be around today and for the lynch.
Now on to other matters:
@ YourHarry:
[u]Regarding other players being "coached" - to be honest, that's something I really try not to pay attention to. Someone looking "coached" can be a mafia or town tell as far as I'm concerned.
Regarding your response to my Axero case - On point 4, you mention that citing newbiness isn't always a mafia excuse. Alone, I agree. However, he uses it as an excuse for not having read the thread or posted analysis. This is the bit that I find scummy.
Regarding your case against mkfuba - I really don't get it. What part about that makes mkfuba scummy? As far as I can tell, the case against Lvdr was good, and ample reasoning was given for questioning your town read.
@ ShadySands
Regarding Lvdr
What I am concerned about is his lack of scumhunting so far.
The point about Lvdr "narrowing suspicions" is interesting, but I consider it a null tell until we have more information. I got a townie lynched (as mafia) on that same reasoning in XXI, and I don't consider the lurker-list to be necessarily mafia motivated based on these actions. Furthermore, the players he listed were the lurkiest at that point in the game.
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EPT
