I have gone through the thread to mine A LOT of data on who has suspected who since day one. I know people don't like lists, and this is definitely going to be data overload for some of you, but here it goes. Please note that because this is SO MUCH data to comb through, I inevitably might have missed some people's smaller cases on certain people. As best I could I tried to weed out singular lines of questioning at players that led nowhere, and wishy-washy this player could be scum but might not be-type posts. There is some subjectivity here, and I encourage everyone to let me know if you see something inconsistent with your prior stances, or something missing that I overlooked. Below is a look at everyone's scum suspects, from earliest to latest. I don't repeat suspects brought up multiple times.:
Ange777: Golbat, Shady, Obvious (sustanceless posts), goodkarma, Zork, Prox, Mordanis (day 3)
alan133: Mordanis, Shady, Keirathi, Obvious (D3), Zork (D3), aRyuujin (D3)
Mordanis: Keirathi, Shady, Golbat, Ange777, Prox, Zork (D3)
Obvious: Shady, Zork, Mordanis, Darth, goodkarma, aRyuujin (D3)
MrMedic: Mordanis (weak "I agree with Darth post), Golbat (post-humously)
aRyuujin: MrMedic, Golbat, Shady Sands, Mordanis (D3)
Darthpunk: Mordanis, Prox
goodkarma: aRyuujin, briefly: Obvious, MrMedic, Zork; Prox
Shady: Mordanis, Golbat, Zork & Obvious (light), Prox
Zork: Golbat, Shady, goodkarma,
Jingle (MrMedic replacement): Shady, Ange777
This is a lot of seemingly random information! So why bring this up? JUST ABOUT EVERYONE has at one point or another shown enough suspicion of Mordanis to make a case against him. The only exceptions: Zork, myself, and Jingle (whose predecessor brought him up). And then there's the fact I brought to light his suspicious voting history... which means only Zork and Jingle haven't commented on him. But Jingle's predecessor commented on him, meaning that only Zork has had nothing to say about him. What I'm trying to get at here is: There's so much suspicion on him he looks less suspicious to me. It's a bit WIFOM, but I'm going to make the assumption (and it's a big one) that up until this point no scum has mounted a strong attack against one of his buddies. To this end, I don't think Mordanis is mafia, but rather a town that's played poorly. I understand how long it can take to post cases of the length that Mordanis likes to, and can genuinely understand his claim that he was busy day 2, which would explain his inactivity. His sometimes wishy-washy stances definitely are not very pro-town, but right now I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
So allow me to comment on the other people that currently are objects of suspicion:
Ange: Ange seems to have a little different play style than the one I've come to expect from town. He likes to pressure other people and begin to form cases based on their reactions (rather than just form cases up-front and see what everyone thinks). It's slower play than what I would prefer to see, but I won't deny it's been pretty effective on furthering town discussion on a few suspects, including: myself and Zorkmid. I see his play to date as generally pro-town, with similarities to Keir's play-style.
Obvious: I don't feel Obvious's gameplay to date is very pro-town at all. He has been very defensive whenever anyone points a finger, perhaps to the point of being irrational. I genuinely believe him when he describes how much he feels his life sucks, and when putting that in as a motivating factor for his current play, I am inclined to believe he is bad town. His arguements have never really been fully fleshed out, but the zeal with which he defends himself feels genuine to me and not of the contrived scummy kind.
And now onto Zorkmid:
I believe that Zorkmid is scum. Ange's case spells out several scummy parts of Zork's play. The biggest point that has convinced me is the scumslip that I originally pointed out to Ange.:
On July 31 2012 22:02 Zorkmid wrote:
I honestly just forgot about SS, but your accusation has led me to go back through his filter. I've noticed that he has never addressed my accusation about him.
I still don't see a townie forgetting a suspect like that, especially when he hasn't brought up all that many suspects...
Also, one other point that I don't think has been mentioned yet is Zork's obsession with describing all his irl events that have kept him from posting. I believe it's been established we all have our irl obligations that keep us from posting sometimes. But that he feels obligated to always describe what he's been doing irl makes him look scummy to me. Not only that, it isn't pro-town, since it takes time away that could have been better spent putting some real analysis into discussion.
##FoS: Zorkmid
Another suspect that I would like to bring up is aRyuujin. I strongly feel that it is time to lynch him. As I have described in the past, everything that he has posted to date has been meaningless rehashings of other people's arguements. Day three, this hasn't changed:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 02 2012 11:24 aRyuujin wrote:I'm suspicious of Mordanis now, mainly because of the sudden shift in his play. Initially, he's really into scum hunting. He's a somewhat controversial figure, but people seem to believe he's a town player, begins he's quite active in scumhunting. However, as soon as day 2 begins, he suddenly begins to quiet down. Even more important than the lack of posts is the sudden change in the posts themselves: Initially: Show nested quote + He even tries to end the discussion by agreeing that the case on me is open and shut. Vague Pro-town comments + early excuse + bandwagon-ing + anti-discussion = quadruple scummy. So for right now at least: ##Vote: Golbat . Quotes like this show how he behaves decisively, voting on the spot. Now, let's look at his recent behavior: His discussion about prome: Show nested quote +I'm really confused by Promethelax's play. He just admonished me for fluff posts. His entire first page of his filter is fluff. He comments on my opening case being really bad, regardless of my alignment. Look at his first FOS: Here, he's behaving in a way that contrasts greatly with his previous actions. He no longer is the decisive scum hunter. Now, he's merely confused. Show nested quote +I do not understand Promethelax's play. It has been at times hypocritical, illogical, and bad. I see very little scum motivation for the way he's been playing, assuming he's a competent player. I don't see any town motivation either, so I would prefer to wait to see if he continues to play the way he has. ... I actually feel bad voting for him at this point, but he is my strongest read. This continues on to here, where he votes. Once more, however, he's markedly different from the active townie persona he portrayed earlier. Also important to note is the change in activity. Previously, he was one of the most active contributors. Now, he's slid down the scale quite a bit (content wise, he still has more fluff posts). However, this reasoning isn't nearly as solid, because he might just be more busy. Coupled with the change in behavior, however, I'm led to believe that ... Mordanis has changed because he wants to avoid scum slips. This happens a lot, where a very 'loud' player all of a sudden quiets down or changes suddenly. And it's oftentimes because they want to avoid a scum slip. Therefore, I'm ##FoS Mordanis.
Compare this to Darthpunk's earlier posting on Mordanis a little earlier on the very same page:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 02 2012 10:49 DarthPunk wrote:Hey guys. Just woke up and am going to dive into some Mafia! First of all I am all but convinced that Shady Sands is Mason. The slip is there, and he would have had to fabricate that day 1 with almost nothing to go off. So 99% certain that SS is green. I am going to go back through each of Keirathi and SS filters and see if they were onto anything. I do know however, that both have been suspicious of Obvious. I already had my eye on him and I am going to look through his filter very closely. @goodkarma, There is a post in my filter that addresses my position on Mordanis. Show nested quote +On July 31 2012 00:26 DarthPunk wrote: I still find mordanis suspiscious and i feel as if my case against him was never really answered satisfactorily and just sort of got drowned out in the noise. His posting and reasoning has improved INCREDIBLY (thanks BTW) and lots of people seem to be having small town reads on him. That being said if anyone wants to know my thoughts on him at a later date let me know. I will be watching him closely. "With the momentum solidly going towards a Golbat lynch when I revoted him" -Mordanis. I mean i don't get why this guys doesn't start alarm bells ringing for you guys like he does for me. At the point I posted that many people had stated they had small town reads on him and no one was contributing or commenting on my case against him. Whilst I did (and still do) have a scum read on mordanis the fact that my case was generating zero discussion and a fear that I was victim of confirmation bias. I felt that I was being unproductive by focusing on him too much. That being said, I have been following mordanis closely and there continue to be unresolved questions around him. Off the Top of my head I will state a few things that are wrong with mordanis. Day one he lead 3 cases against 3 now confirmed townies. He pursued them very aggresively but none of his cases had much merit. The first one he admitted to being dishonest with (didn't really believe there was a case on keir) and was based purely on WIFOM. + Show Spoiler +On July 28 2012 10:46 DarthPunk wrote:Good morning Everyone. First up some thoughts. GolbatI spent the majority of last night reading their filters trying to make sense of it. And it was seriously a mess. From the OMGUS accusations onward. Golbat flip-flops like it is going out of style. And Mordanis still uses a large amount of WIFOM to justify his arguments which just make it more difficult to understand what he is actually saying. One of mordanis' key arguments (claimed scumslip) against golbat was this Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 11:31 Golbat wrote:I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today.
While it is true that this may be used to hop on whatever bandwagon he wants without fear of reprisal. in the context of the conversation and a simple search through his filter says otherwise. Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 09:15 Golbat wrote:
As far as the game goes, Mordanis' post about Keir's post where he was "virtually claiming town RB" seems to be a pretty scummy thing to do. It didn't seem to me to be a secret claim of any sort, just a rules clarification. Even if it was a super-secret claim that he could use later, I wouldn't believe him if that was the only evidence he had.
From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt.
Not everyone has posted, so I don't yet want to commit to a vote, but I've got my eye on you Mordanis. Go read the thread. He was THE FIRST to cast suspicion onto Mord. Mordanis case is built upon the fact that he had insurance to jump on any bandwagon he wanted without fear of reprisal and then jumps on a bandwagon on him. Golbat almost immediately casts suspicion onto Mordanis, then states he may already have an idea of who may be scum. Yep, it seems like he was just backing up his previous claim of mordanis' scumminess. MordanisShow nested quote +On July 28 2012 02:40 Mordanis wrote:+ Show Spoiler [Joking at Hosts] +On July 27 2012 22:23 marvellosity wrote:No, 1 day 7.5 hours roughly
Edited to use ALL THE BLUE On July 27 2012 22:24 ghost_403 wrote:
There's still over 24 hours until the voting deadline.
OP says the deadline is at 22:00 GMT (+00:00) but I've used 21:00 GMT (+00:00) a few times, and I think that would work better for me. I'm going to change the deadline to 21:00 GMT (+00:00), unless you guys have any objections (if you do, PM them to me). I can see the next History Channel TV hit: Host Wars! Or maybe Semi-Truck-Driving-Host Wars! just to give it some originality :D On July 27 2012 18:44 Golbat wrote:
I can understand why you would read my actions so far in the game as scum, but they're honestly just the actions of a bad player who thought he had a dead on scum read and was most likely very, very wrong. From now on i'll be more careful with who I vote for, because while I DID indeed redact my vote, I really really dislike when that happens on the whole. I got a little carried away and luckily it happened this early on and not in a situation where I might have cause a loss for town.
Basically, I'm NOT scum, and anything scummy I have said or done so far can be explained by my inexperience.
After reading Prom's post (especially the bit regarding self-imposed posting limits), I feel like it's time for me to take a break, especially after spewing so much bullshit and bad play all over the thread. See you in about 6-12 hours. On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote:On July 27 2012 18:42 alan133 wrote:
I have read and re-read the filters but couldn't find anything other than Mordanis' "meh" case on Kei and subsequent cases against Mordanis for that.
I was kinda thrown off when Golbat decides to unvote Mordanis because he started off having high confidence that he is scum. His "I am a newbie post" also contributes to my suspicions on him. I quickly dismissed them because I still have my FOS on Mordanis and he did a case on Golbat too.
Now that Ange777 has mentioned it, I would like to ask Golbat, what makes you think that Mordanis is not scum anymore? To me, his only "townie points" is that he is the first player who built a case, but that's about it. Is there some "obvious" reason that I missed? Every time I re-read Mordanis's posts I am more convinced that he is scum. The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS MordanisIt's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler +but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours Basically, in the space of 7 minutes, Golbat made excuses for his play, gives himself an excuse to lurk for over a quarter of the day cycle, flip-flops completely from thinking he was "very very wrong" about me to ostensibly implying that I'm the best target for a lynch. But if you add these posts to what he posted earlier, you see that Golbat hasn't really contributed anything. He talked policy, and then prepared to jump on a bandwagon. On seeing that it was incredibly early to jump on the bandwagon, he then jumps to save his townie cred. This is classic scum-play, posting a decent amount of stuff that people agree with, without contributing and having excuses to stall discussion about him. On the other hand, the whole thing where he flips about me about 29.4 times could be construed as indicative of terrified newbie play. I don't really buy this because there is really no contribution from him. All he's done is voiced opinions that others have already mentioned. There is no analysis, save one post where he points out that I over committed to talking about Keir. He even says that he's not the first to come to this conclusion. + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 13:06 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 12:53 Mordanis wrote:
The reason I am talking about blues is because Keir seems to be trying to make people who are looking for blues beeline to him, but his play doesn't resonate with that of a true blue. If he's green, then he's trying to secretly manipulate the scum (trying to secretly "dig a yard under to make your enemy hoist to his own petard" is very dangerous), potentially harming town as a whole. The alternative is that he's red and trying to force the real blues to claim, and possibly being able to get out of a lynch by claiming Town RB. I have no idea which is more likely, but I think he is more likely scum than anyone else at this moment. That said, I need to eat and then read through more carefully before I can go any further. You are REALLY fixated on asserting that Keir is trying to make others think he is. It seems to be that a lot of us disagree with you. For the life of me I can't understand why you're trying to get him lynched for attempting to teach whoever the Town RB is (if there even is one) how to play the role. It's an important thing to know, and might have prevented the Town RB from accidentally blocking the cop from using his power on one of the most important night phases of the game. This IS a newbie mafia after all, would you be doing the same thing if he told the vigilante not to shoot someone on night one? No contribution to scumhunting is probably the best indicator of scumminess, and combined with what I believe are some "slips" (see my earlier case), I think he is probably the best scum-read. Mordanis goes from pushing golbats case and 'scumslip' heavily, to voting shady in the space of a post. We would assume that this sudden change of heart would come with some clear and strong arguements right? WrongShow nested quote +On July 28 2012 06:36 Mordanis wrote:I'm starting to get a really bad feeling about Shady. Remember his post that said that no game in 20 lynched scum D1? + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 09:02 Shady Sands wrote:
So pretty much, I looked through about 20 mafia games and found not a single night one lynch resulting in a red kill. This suggests one thing:
Day 1 scumhunting actually has a lower success rate than a random day 1 lynch. If the lynches had been truly random, then maybe 20-30% of the games should have had day 1 lynches turn up red, but none of them did. Here are the D1 lynches from several games: NMM XXI: blue NMM XX: red NMM XIX: blue NMM XVIII: green NMM XVII: red NMM XVI: blue (I couldn't find XV or XIV, so I chose to go to the SNMMs) SNMM XI: red SNMM X: green SNMM IX: green So we have 3 blues lynched, 3 VT lynched, and 3 scum lynched. So it would appear that in Newbie mini mafia games, there is about a 1/3 chance of lynching scum D1. With 3/13 chance a random lynch would hit scum (~24%), and historically a 1/3 chance of hitting scum through hunting, the choice is clear. This is for future reference really, as we're already hunting. But this brings up the fact that Shady almost certainly lied. Now there is sometimes a reason for a townie to lie. If it opens up an avenue for them to discover scum, or take one for the team, or accomplishes another goal it can be a boon to lie to the town. On the other hand, by suggesting that scum hunting D1 is useless, Shady is 1) discouraging discussion (why discuss when it only lowers the probability of hitting scum?), 2) stalling the game (mafia wants to stall as long as possible. they use their kp regardless of where our lynch ends up), and 3) trying to influence newbies' thinking (if analysis/scum hunt isn't the main priority, then mafia get off free for mistakes while being able to penalize some other player. This goes with stalling). In short, Shady lied in a pretty baldfaced manner, and the lie only serves the interest of mafia. Also, after reading through Obvious's filter last game, I saw that his behavior was almost identical to Golbat's. Golbat, you need to contribute, because if you don't, you're going to be looking even scummier. But I have seen almost identical play from a townie (Obvious was lynched D1 though), so for now I am going to switch my vote. ##Unvote
##Vote: Shady_Sands Now this is the post where he flips from golbat onto shady. The first half of his post is meaningless and doesn't actually provide any information or a good reason to flip from someone he had been pursuing whom he believed had scumslipped. Shady could have read Mafia games elsewhere, not just TL. So the whole lie scenario is a stretch and to me doesn't mean anything. He then goes on to speculate on a reason town would lie. This is also meaningless and fails to add anything to the Shady case. the only part of Mordanis' post which gives any clue whatsoever as to why he flipped from his scum read to shady. Show nested quote +On July 28 2012 06:36 Mordanis wrote:
Also, after reading through Obvious's filter last game, I saw that his behavior was almost identical to Golbat's. Golbat, you need to contribute, because if you don't, you're going to be looking even scummier. But I have seen almost identical play from a townie (Obvious was lynched D1 though), so for now I am going to switch my vote. He meta reads. But not golbats previous game. Obvious.660's. No mention of the strong arguments brought forward about shady by prom and subsequently ange777, no analysis of shady that actually adds anything. Next post after voting shady. what does he decide to do he makes another list in a similar vein as above Show nested quote +On July 28 2012 07:26 Mordanis wrote:
OK, if you want to look at other games too,
Bureaucracy: blue
DBZ: red
I can't believe its...: green
TLM LVI: green
SSB 64: ???
Movie star: green
Bastard: No clue
Igrok's: green
TLM LV: green
MTG 1: green
Wheel of fortune: None
TLM LIII: VE blue
C9++: red
So if you look at full games (30ish players), the rate of hitting scum is really bad. As it should be, since 6 people working together are pretty strong when no one knows anything else. In the more exposed mini set ups though, there seems to be much more incidence of hitting red D1. So I have to retract my statement about the bald-faced lie, it is possible to have looked up several large games and seen no scum hit with D1 lynch. I still do stand by my statement that the post I quoted earlier is misleading at best (for mini games) and works against town. My apologies everyone for not researching fully prior to this. So allow me to reread through to see things with fresh eyes. He talks a big game. Lied and drew heat on himself so we could start scumhunting. I don't buy it. He is not following through. He is not contributing anything of substance. He is flipflopping whilst accusing others of the same. He is not doing the scumhunting he so desperately wanted to start. The case on golbat was a reaction to him casting a vote on mordanis, and he pushed that case throughout the majority of day. But then he jumped on shady sands with an explanation for leaving his previous 'Best scum read' as reading Obvious' filter from the previous game. So he jumped onto another case after leading a mislynch hard throughout day one. contributed very little to it. Tried to manufacture a scenario in which Shady 'lied' and spent several posts muddling the conversation with his case about shady's day 1 lynch scenario, that I personally felt was retarded. Show nested quote + On July 28 2012 19:45 DarthPunk wrote:@MordanisShady said that he looked through 20 games without seeing any mafia lynched D1. I referenced 20 games with 5 scum lynched D1. This is Irrelevant. Claiming it is a lie is a stretch and nothing you stated does anything to further the case against Shady Sands nor do I believe it to be a legitimate reason to flip from golbat (who to you has scumslipped etc. and whom you had been pushing on for the majority of your previous posts) to Shady Sands. Darth: Where did I lie? I want one expression that is a bald-faced lie. You have admitted to pursuing a case against keirathi that you didn't believe was true. You're right, I didn't really believe the case, but there isn't any real pressure generated by "Hey i dont believe wat im sayin, but i think X is scum" The reason I left the case on Keir is because there wasn't really a case. So you still haven't given a legitimate reason to dropping your case on golbat, had nothing to add to the sandy shades case you jumped onto. and then, when questioned: To keep myself honest, I'll go ahead and ## unvote. How many times did you claim Golbat to be flip flopping his vote around? I want to point out that I think several people are going about scum-hunting the wrong way. Play that hurts town but benefits scum is indicative of scumminess. Illogical posting is not necessarily scummy though. This is a tautology. Illogical posting does hurt town. It obscures the crux of you arguement and makes it more difficult to read through and analyze your positions. The point is I don't believe you to be guilty of illogical arguments and nothing more. The 1st case you pursued you didn't believe. The second case you pursue, and the only one in which you post anything of substance, is dropped out of nowhere with no real explanation.The third case you move onto because you meta read golbat with obvious' previous play then drop the case against him. You jump on the shady sands case yet you add nothing to the case against that person and when questioned drop that vote immediately. Then move back to Golbat. You are also guilty of basing entire arguments on WIFOM, wishy-washy-ness, appearing to but not actually contributing to cases, saying things whilst saying nothing etc. I am going to a party and should be back before Deadline which i may stay up for 7am my time. However in case something goes wrong, i am putting my vote with mordanis. ##Vote: Mordanis So after I pressure him on jumping the ship he built and keirathi somewhat defends shady, he jumps back on to the mislynch he created. The net effect of this play? leads a mislynch whilst sufficiently distancing himself from it through his SS tangent. He then accuses Ange777 of doing something extremely similar. After day 1 his posting whilst improving in clarity and making cases based on something other than WIFOM, have dramatically altered in style and frequency, yet still contain the internal contradictions I first took issue with. His case on prom + Show Spoiler +On July 31 2012 19:10 Mordanis wrote:I'm really confused by Promethelax's play. He just admonished me for fluff posts. His entire first page of his filter is fluff. He comments on my opening case being really bad, regardless of my alignment. Look at his first FOS: + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 18:55 Promethelax wrote:I'd like to bring some attention to Zorkmid: He starts with policy talk, as we all did. Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 06:29 Zorkmid wrote:On July 27 2012 05:52 Promethelax wrote:
Hello all and welcome to Newbie 22! I'm excited to finally be in this game.
I have, much to my delight, rolled town for the first time in a normal mini. I hope to be able to prove to you that I am as innocent as most of you and much more innocent than our scum friends lead by Marv who, shockingly, rolled scum for the millionth time.
On policy: I don't like policy lynches. I feel that town can do better than that and we should lynch scum not liars or lurkers. It is always possible to build cases and to try to lynch scum instead of basing our attacks on a black and white policy.
Keir is right about the town RB though, you should hold your power until d2 at least since blocking a blue role can throw us off immensely. Do not RB until you are sure that someone is scum! If you have a perfect read d1 go ahead but I doubt you do.
Also Keir: I promise to spell your name right this time.
aRyuujin: since you are here would you be kind enough to bless us with one of your Haiku to start some discussion, no need to be silent just because you feel there is nothing to talk about. About the bolded part, I think that early on in a game, there really isn't that much to go on in order to choose who to vote for. I also think that which an inactive player isn't necessarily scum, they aren't very helpful to town. Same goes for liars. That's my two cents. Follows it up with an immediate about face when he learns about the no-lynch option Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 06:46 Zorkmid wrote:
Well in that case, I don't feel as strongly about lynching all liars and inactives. He leaves hoping for more from others Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 06:48 Zorkmid wrote:
I'll have to think about that for a little while, hopefully while I'm gone we'll hear more from the others! and after that comes back with a question and than dissapears Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 08:15 Zorkmid wrote:On July 27 2012 08:12 Shady Sands wrote:
From a logic standpoint, it makes sense to always have a lynch target each day, because voting patterns, voting times, and the order in which players vote are some of the most important clues that the town can use.
For example, if the target turns out to be green or blue, then we can backtrack and start seeing who started the bandwagoning and go from there. If the target turns out to be red, we can see who did the last minute voting or tried to swing the balance away from them, and add those to the list.
But if we simply go for a no-lynch, there's no pressure on the scum to actually put their money where their mouth is, so to speak. This makes perfect sense to me, so how we determine who to target initially? That was over ten hours ago, I don't get it. Where did you go Zork? I don't like his play so far and, thus, a FoS is declared. . The reasoning seems to be that Zork isn't an expert yet. I don't see why not knowing the setup in the first hour and a half is scummy. This case makes my own seem sophisticated. His second case is reasonably sound, but when Darth says that my case about Angie is ironic, it pales in comparison to his own. Having only posted the one case, ask for others' opinions, and posted fluff + Show Spoiler [No, Really] +On July 27 2012 07:18 Promethelax wrote:
Okay Ghost, will do. On July 27 2012 07:26 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 07:19 aRyuujin wrote:On July 27 2012 07:04 Promethelax wrote:On July 27 2012 06:58 Keirathi wrote:On July 27 2012 06:53 Promethelax wrote:On July 27 2012 06:48 Keirathi wrote:On July 27 2012 06:45 Promethelax wrote:On July 27 2012 06:43 Zorkmid wrote:
I'm not saying that the "best town play" isn't to lynch scum, I'm just saying that in the absence of that inactivity and liars are the next logical targets.
Warning: Nub question::::We HAVE to lynch someone each day, right? No, we do not. We can no-lynch by making sure that no single candidate has a majority on them. Correct. We can engineer a no-lynch, but everyone HAS to vote. If we are able to ##Vote No-Lynch is up to the hosts discretion, but in a previous game with ghost as the host, we weren't able to, so to no-lynch we had to spread our votes out. I've only seen that as a possibility in a plurality lynch while we are playing a majority lynch. Different mechanics. So Keir: any thoughts yet? Shall we lynch Obvious for being obviously scum? and keep the pattern going, shall we attack Zork for being unable to answer my vague questions or try to lynch one of the two of us for being too active? All of the above. Lynch EVERYTHING! Nah, I just hope more people show up so we can get the ball rolling. Well while we're waiting let's breadcrumb secrets to each other. Victory, I'm sure, will be ours if we strive for it. Ghost must be being really nice to us because I already have a town read on all the players in this game, he must want us all to live happily ever after and not have to kill each other. Okay, so that isn't actually true but I hope a host does that eventually just to be a dick. its quite clear that he is breadcrumbing that his role is that of a dick You win for my favourite response ever. If you are ever in my neck of the woods hit me up and I'll buy you a drink just for that. On July 27 2012 07:37 Promethelax wrote:Unrelated to the discussion so far after reading Shady Sands' Op here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355847 I expect awesome posts from him/her. Slim Shady: you've got some awesome to live up to. Since we haven't been productive so far I would like us to turn our attention to pressure: I for one am concerned that MrMedic may not be a medic and is lying about his role in his name. Okay, what I'm actually concerned about is that all he posted is that he is here. I want more. On July 27 2012 07:38 Promethelax wrote:
EBWOP: I'm also concerned that his post was edited. Watch yourself my man or Ghost will smite you with his mighty powers. On July 27 2012 08:27 Promethelax wrote:
My girlfriend got home so I don't have time to read one last time before going to work. I'll see you in 10-12 hours. Good luck town. , some people (DP + Ange) post others whom they perceive to be relatively inactive. Neither DarthPunk nor Ange mention him though. Then he makes his second case on Golbat + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 21:49 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 20:04 Ange777 wrote:Obvious
MrMedic
aRyuujin
ZorkAll have posted next to nothing of content. On to Shady: His filter is a lot of policy talking and then the case against Mordanis. I am unsure about him. On July 27 2012 13:29 Shady Sands wrote:
Mordanis' response pretty much sealed the deal for me. I think it is clear that Mordanis is a red. Let's parse through his response.
When you look at all that, and the weak logic against Keir, then what you see is the following pattern:
Mordanis first claims that Keir is the likeliest candidate for lynching because he a likely candidate to be red. Then he backs off and claims that Keir could go red or green. Then he argues that we should lynch controversial candidates first. The point is, lynching controversial candidates would be fine, if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir. This totally smacks of a Red finding out his original tactic for generating a bandwagon has failed, acknowledging that he is the only one arguing for a lynch, and then stating that because he is the only one arguing for a lynch, the person is "controversial" and should be lynched.
The thing is, if Mordanis was convinced of the controversy of Keir's play than Mordanis' play is not scummy. I don't like Shady's case. I have to head out now. I'll try give a better read on Shady when I come back. Alright, I'll look into their filters and see if anything is popping there. What I found, and still find weird about shady is this: + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 08:38 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 07:43 Mordanis wrote:Rather than sitting in a circle and deciding whom to lynch based on who sing "Kum ba yah, My Lord" the most off key (what kind of villainous scum would do such a thing?), I think its time to begin the scumhunt. Anyways, I apologize in advance if this seems somewhat rushed. I want to get the hunt going as early as possible, and I feel we've wasted the first hour and a half. So without further ado, here comes (hopefully) the first case of the game: Mordanis's's case on KeirathiK (for some reason your name is really hard for me to type) began this game by virtually claiming Town RB. + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 05:41 Keirathi wrote:
First things first:
If we have a town roleblocker, I think its best not to use your role early. You generally have as much chance of hurting a teamate as you do a scum. I'm not saying to NEVER use it, but think carefully and only use it if you are reasonably sure that you are blocking a scum.
Some policy discussion:
Lynch All Liars - I'm of the opinion that there are very, very few cases where lying as a townie is beneficial to town. With that said, there ARE cases where it is a realistic option, so I think blanket policy lynching is a fairly bad thing. Case-by-case basis.
Lynch All Lurkers - As much as lurking hurts town, I feel like at least in newbie games, lurking is almost guaranteed. I encourage everyone to try as hard as they can to avoid lurking sot hat we won't have to discuss this later. Lurking as a townie hurts town. Please don't do it. Again, case-by-case basis.
Are all roleblocks notified, or only people with power roles?
I've seen games where it works both ways, so best to clarify early.
. Now this may have been a case of extreme newbiness, which would be understandable, but Mr. K has played in at least 2 other games, so I believe he knew how this post would be interpreted. This brings up 3 possibilities: 1: Mr. K is VT, and he is trying to "take one for the team". He knows that the scum will see this post and read him blue, and he'll die tonight instead of a real blue. If this were to happen, he'd have helped town. If he gets lynched today, it'll be bad for town, but it will be deal-with-able. 2: Mr. K is actually townie RB. Perhaps he is trying to make his "claim" so obvious the scum will think option 1 is happening. Trying to hide out in the open. If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. That said, he implied that he wouldn't want to use it N1 anyway, so the options are virtually the same. 3: Mr. K is scum, and is trying to use this as means to get himself out of trouble. If he ever gets some heat brought to him, he just says "Dude, I basically claimed town RB, I don't think its a good idea to lynch me" The claim also puts pressure on any real blues to claim, and when everyone claims, a claim isn't worth anything. Basically, this post seems mildly non-protown, and it gives him a way to defend himself. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And if this option is the case, scum aren't killing him tonight. Of these three, option 2 seems by far the least probable. So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Still, its pretty early so I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now. Last thing: I have to go to work now, and I'll be back in probably 5 hours (rakin in the cash makin pizza), just FYI. I'm not sure how Keir telling RB not to use their powers equals Keir roleclaiming as RB. Of course Day 1 roleclaiming is suspicious but this post doesn't fit the bill. But if a clear consensus emerges that he's suspicious, I'd volunteer myself to watch his posting behavior. That said, I do think Day 1 scumhunting could work--but only after everyone (or nearly everyone) has posted. I'm going to go down the list of posters now and do a quick tally. Ange777 - No posts yet Keirathi - Six posts Promethelax - More than 10 posts alan133 - 1 "GLHF" post Mordanis - Three posts Obvious.660 - 2 posts MrMedic - 1 post, edited aRyuujin - 2 posts, both haiku DarthPunk - No posts yet goodkarma - No posts yet Golbat - No posts yet Shady Sands - 2 posts so far Zorkmid - 5 posts Players in order of activity: Promethelax Keirathi Zorkmid Mordanis Obvious.660 aRyuujin Shady Sands alan133 MrMedic -- Lurkers -- Ange777 Darthpunk goodkarma Golbat Once the remaining few lurkers have posted, then we can start scumhunting. The next task is to read through past mafia games and find those with successful Day 1 scumhunts--and see what common lessons can be drawn from them. I'm going to compile a list of those right now. Where he puts a lot of bull shit into the thread and nothing real. He literally used post counts to increase the size of his filter. the other thing in here I want to focus on is his lets wait attitude. for example: from the above post and others He also says that Show nested quote +Day 1 scumhunting actually has a lower success rate than a random day 1 lynch. If the lynches had been truly random, then maybe 20-30% of the games should have had day 1 lynches turn up red, but none of them did. both of these things push town away from hunting for scum, attempting to prevent scum hunting is a huge scum trait. On top of this he misrepresents the facts in newbie 21 (I think) Hopeless1der was lynched d1 as scum so scum hunting has shown to be effective recently. He also replys to my advice by saying Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 09:11 Shady Sands wrote:On July 27 2012 06:41 Promethelax wrote:On July 27 2012 06:29 Zorkmid wrote:On July 27 2012 05:52 Promethelax wrote:
Hello all and welcome to Newbie 22! I'm excited to finally be in this game.
I have, much to my delight, rolled town for the first time in a normal mini. I hope to be able to prove to you that I am as innocent as most of you and much more innocent than our scum friends lead by Marv who, shockingly, rolled scum for the millionth time.
On policy: I don't like policy lynches. I feel that town can do better than that and we should lynch scum not liars or lurkers. It is always possible to build cases and to try to lynch scum instead of basing our attacks on a black and white policy.
Keir is right about the town RB though, you should hold your power until d2 at least since blocking a blue role can throw us off immensely. Do not RB until you are sure that someone is scum! If you have a perfect read d1 go ahead but I doubt you do.
Also Keir: I promise to spell your name right this time.
aRyuujin: since you are here would you be kind enough to bless us with one of your Haiku to start some discussion, no need to be silent just because you feel there is nothing to talk about. About the bolded part, I think that early on in a game, there really isn't that much to go on in order to choose who to vote for. I also think that which an inactive player isn't necessarily scum, they aren't very helpful to town. Same goes for liars. That's my two cents. Day 1 is like any other day, we don't have all the information we want to have but we should use what information we do have to lynch a guy who looks scummy. Not a guy who looks like bad town. Marv said it best in the QT for I can't believe its not themed mini mafia: "best town play is to lynch scum" post 101 if you are curious. It was in reply to something dumb I said. While I'm not saying we will hit scum without fail we should try to. We can eliminate shitty players later with Vigi shots or scum will shoot them. A lurky scum team will have no ability to control where we look, if me and my boys had lurked in XIX we would have been crushed in LYLO but because 2/3 of us were active we managed a perfect victory despite Keirathi replacing in and figuring out all three of us at just the wrong time. aR: you make me happy with your Haiku Obvious: your limerick is excellent as well There are a couple points here that are bad advice: 1) Scum will not shoot bad town players. It just makes no sense 2) Do not, I repeat, do not, waste vigi shots on bad town players. Indeed, vigi shots are the single most critical resource the town has. scum will blue snipe, they will kill players who won't vote for the right mislynch or who are tunneling scum. There are a million reasons for scum to shoot a bad town player so his first point is wrong and his second point again pushes us away from scum hunting since he insists that vigi shots are our most powerful tool. No they aren't. We are the most powerful town asset and scum hunting is the most powerful town tool. His next post tells us to wait for more people to post until we make cases and the one after that is a case... Show nested quote +I'd say he's our best option for a day 1 lynch at this point, but to be extra sure, we should wait until Ange777 has had a chance to post as well, and Mordanis gets back from making pizzas and has had a chance to defend himself.
Even if he flips green (which is likely, let's not get our hopes up here), his lynch will tell us a lot about who we should go after next, since people seem to have had strong reactions to both his proposal to go after Keir, his own lynching, and his arguments against policy lynching. Sands tells us that we should still hold off even though this guy is the best lynch target. He also tells us that he will likely flip green based on (I assume) the statistics which seems, to me, to be a way to distance himself from a Mord town flip. What originally felt scummy to me in Sands' filter was this post where he says: Show nested quote +The reason I think it's likely he'll flip green right now is because we haven't been able to see his response to these accusations. If he responds in the way in which I think he will (or chooses not to respond at all) then I think he's a clear red. Re-read that. Do yourself a favour and beat your face against a hard surface. He think that Mord will flip green unless he replys in the way that he (Sands) expects him to in which case he is red...alrighty than. I also hate this post: Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 21:22 Shady Sands wrote:On July 27 2012 20:33 Shady Sands wrote:On July 27 2012 15:36 Mordanis wrote:... *Sigh* I'll begin by saying this: If the people jumping on my bandwagon 1/6th of the way through the first day are town, they are really doing a good job of muddling up the conversation. Look through the thread so far, and see that the only discussion before I posted my case was policy, and that very lenient. There was a lot of "Oop, don't want to attract attention, guess I'll say that we shouldn't policy lynch any lurkers". I admit that I rushed my two main posts, and they may have been suboptimal, but compare that to the entire rest of the populace. We've managed 2 cases so far, and I was one of them. The other is a direct response to mine. I really don't understand why the people who are tunnelling me are doing so: attacking the only person who has posted anything of substance (that isn't within the same bandwagon as you) seems anti-discussion. So while I certainly made a mistake in talking too much about Keir and potential blue roles, the biggest reason that I seem to be "in danger" is that I've been willing to say what I believe. Regardless, I see the bandwagon as being very interesting. There are 3 people who have had an overwhelming share in the activity against me. DarthPunk: He seems to have a hard time with my line of thought. I apologize, my last game ended with me and another player (Release <3) in a duel that had a lot secrecy and enigmatic reasoning. I came to this game expecting the same. If you take people at the face value of their words (In which case, I'm town so don't lynch me :D), then you tend to miss a lot of good reads. The way to catch scum is not to find the first invalid argument, but rather to find the players who are playing in an anti-town way. This includes delaying to reduce the amount of analysis, making the atmosphere bad for town, and muddling with plans. By posting my case on the first thing that I saw, I went in the direction of an atmosphere that welcomes content posting, started the scumhunt before it would have started had I not posted, and laid a fairly straightforward path for the town without explicitly discussing policy. We lynch the player with the scummiest play. So while my read may not have been perfect, my post should have helped town. On the other hand, creating a mass bandwagon on the one person who has posted anything of substance (besides the counter substance) seems to accomplish the goals of scum. Still, he seems more to have an issue following my logic than to be following a plan, as well as being the first to place suspicion on me. I give him a solid "mEh" on the scum-scale Shady: The most brazen of my accusers. Doesn't seem to be following the fine points of the game very closely. Still doesn't appear to get that the day cycle is 48 hours and not 12. Has a great time posting out perceived errors in my logic and then votes for me on said perceptions, without seeming to notice that one of his main points + Show Spoiler +if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir. makes no sense. Why would scum draw attention to himself on a case this early? Why especially would the scum stick to his guns rather than move on to greener pastures? Seems like really dumb play for scum, although perhaps he thinks I am that dumb. I am pretty sure I'm more intelligent than a garbage can though... Anyways, despite my annoyance with him, his play seems more uniformed than scummy. So to you Shady I say: Read through the OP again, and preferably some of the guides. Your play so far has been far from inspiring. And compared to this group, that's saying something. Golbat: The entire time so far he seems to have been itching to get on my bandwagon. His first post with more than 1 line says: + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 09:15 Golbat wrote:
Howdy guys! This will be my first game of mafia ever that wasn't an sc2 UMS, and those I could never quite get the hang of (mostly due to nobody else having a clue what was going on either). Hopefully, I'll be able to make more sense of the game in a format like this.
As far as the game goes, Mordanis' post about Keir's post where he was "virtually claiming town RB" seems to be a pretty scummy thing to do. It didn't seem to me to be a secret claim of any sort, just a rules clarification. Even if it was a super-secret claim that he could use later, I wouldn't believe him if that was the only evidence he had.
From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt.
Not everyone has posted, so I don't yet want to commit to a vote, but I've got my eye on you Mordanis. First he makes an excuse for potential scumslips (First time in a non UMS, take it easy on me), and then proceeds to quietly second the position of DarthPunk. He seems to be trying to avoid attention while being able to make excuses later on, with the added bonus of being able to hop onto a bandwagon on me without much thought from other players. His second post + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 11:31 Golbat wrote:
I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today.
Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic).
is more of the same: he is trying to come off as pro-town without having to commit to anything as of yet. Particularly of importance is the phrase "I already have an idea of who might be scum". Almost brilliant, as it gives him the ability to jump on any bandwagon that forms. He could just say "Yep, just as I thought" and hop right on. Sure, it works better if the bandwagon was me, but if it ended on anyone else no one could say that he had flip-flopped. Finally, he posts this + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 13:36 Golbat wrote:
I mean honestly, it's gone on long enough.
##Vote Mordanis
If you're red, try to be less obvious next time.
If you're green, try to be less scummy next time.
I certainly hope you're not a blue. Awesome, he jumps on the bandwagon in 2nd/3rd position, early enough that he seems to be "leading", but late enough that he can avoid later suspicion by saying "Shady was in front of me!". He even tries to end the discussion by agreeing that the case on me is open and shut. Vague Pro-town comments + early excuse + bandwagon-ing + anti-discussion = quadruple scummy. So for right now at least: ##Vote: Golbat+ Show Spoiler [nonsense about Keir] +I'm really getting bored with the stuff about this. Read my second post about his "claim" + Show Spoiler [spoilered for you convenience] +On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote:Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide: Show nested quote +The most useless kind of lynch is a last minute switch that is really easy and safe to hop on the bandwagon for. If there's a highly polarized lynch, the dead information + voting lists can provide a lot, even if the people accused are all innocent (then you can see who's manipulating just out of site).
In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum. Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Show nested quote +To keep this simple and save time, let's look at some heuristics to find potential targets, then go through their post history to get the best ones. Here are some common heuristics I use of blue indicators:
-Tries to contribute but doesn't stick their neck out
-Shows fear/wants to instinctively hide
-Drastically lower post quantity compared to games when they are green but still tries to contribute.
-Focuses most of their posts on blue roles or ignores them entirely.
-To figure out which role specifically, they will focus unnatural amounts of attention on that role, know the rules for that role thoroughly, or ignore it entirely while mentioning other blue roles. Figuring out the specific is difficult to ascertain and not always applicable, but these heuristics will hold up more often than not. Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler +). That's why I feel Keir isn't blue, because he seems to be trying to seem blue but some of his actions are the opposite. And there was the public question: when I was vigi, I asked several questions about my role, but to try to hide my role I never posted them publically, I PMd them. His play screams to me a somewhat experienced player trying to fake blue. I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss. TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red. , and find for me one place where I explicitly say that we should lynch Keir. All I said was that he isn't blue. Which leaves the two possibilities of him being scum or VT, which everyone seemed to interpret as pushing for a lynch. I over committed to defending what I still believe to be a good read for being 2 pages in, but I didn't try to start a bandwagon on him. If you really want to make a big deal out of a mistake and end the discussion before the day cycle is 1/4 of the way done, by all means just vote for me and agree that its obvious. If you don't feel that way, do your own analysis and point fingers. Town doesn't win by singing Kum Ba Yah, My Lord. I think this is pretty important to parse through, because it makes me want to refrain from lynching Mordanis until day 2 or 3. I'm going to state that I share Mordanis' and Keir's concerns that Golbat may be scum. This is especially true if Mordanis flips green or blue--then Golbat is very clearly red, and vice versa. That being said, however, I'm still pretty suspicious of Mordanis' desire to start scumhunting an hour and a half into the game, when only half of the players had even posted. This was exacerbated by the fact that his case against Keir was extremely poor, almost intentionally so--as if Mordanis wanted more heat than light to be shed on the situation. One of the main things I'd like to point out here is that scum do not necessarily have to play quietly. It's easier for the scum to play that way, but playing loudly is also a valid scum tactic for sowing discord and division within the town--which is what I thought Mord's post was trying to do. Now that the Keir case is closed, however, and Mord+Keir have both identified Golbat's behavior as pretty odd in and of itself, then I think it would be worthwhile to take a look at Golbat. (I'm still a suspicious of Mord, but mainly because his behavior has created so much uncertainty as to what he really could be--and Golbat can clear up a lot of that.) Besides being the first one to "formally" vote for Mordanis, Golbat was also the first one to accuse Mord of faulty analysis. Granted, Golbat's claims were valid--but his more recent posts have made me pretty suspicious. First, let's ignore the list for a bit--we'll circle back to it, but one general thing to note about Golbat's posting: he seems to spend more time trying to make himself look like a townie than trying to figure out who is scum. This is the kicker that shifted my focus from Mord to him. Look at this train of posts below: + Show Spoiler [Golbat's posts since the "…] +On July 27 2012 16:21 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 16:14 Keirathi wrote:On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote:
Keir He hasn't even called out his accuser as being scummy at all.
On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote:
Mord I really like the OMGUS! vote though, <3.
So you call Mord out for OMGUS'ing you, but want me to OMGUS him? That's not what I said. I said that you didn't call him out at all, not that you didn't vote for him. I wouldn't expect you to vote for someone just because they voted for you. But saying "hey bro, cool your jets" at least would have been something. Until page 12 I'm pretty sure you didn't even respond to his accusations, but I might have missed a post. What Mord did was go "Oh so you're gonna vote for me? WELL I'M GONNA VOTE FOR YOU, TAKE THAT! Completely different. And then this post: On July 27 2012 16:49 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 16:26 Keirathi wrote:
@Goldbat: I responded to both of his posts regarding me with pretty strong dismissals for being a bad case. My apologies. I completely forgot about those two posts. Maybe i'm being too hasty with my accusing Mord of being scum from one bad read early in the game. It just seems really fishy that he stuck with it for so long. For the time being mord, I'm not convinced you're not scum, but i'm being convinced less and less that you are the more I think about it. So for the time being, ##unvoteI just really want to win my first game, and I want to do it while playing well, which is what got me excited to get a slam-dunk mafia kill on day one. I know for a fact that i'm not scum, and that's all I really know at this point. Right now, besides Mord, I think that our best bet is to see who isn't contributing anything to the discusssion and then get rid of them. I admit that all of my reads so far could be wrong 100%. However, i don't think posting my day1 reads about all of the people is the same thing as making a town list, because I didn't even give an opinion on half of the people. I could also do without your "oh look at how good I am, you guys are bad" attitude. This is a newbie game, and calling people bad accomplishes nothing except potentially driving people away. P.S. I know I said "i'm not one to throw votes around yadda yadda yadda, but + Show Spoiler +That was me trying to be all internet tough . I'll try to tone down my accusatory-ness, but that's just me being new to the game. And this: On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 18:42 alan133 wrote:
I have read and re-read the filters but couldn't find anything other than Mordanis' "meh" case on Kei and subsequent cases against Mordanis for that.
I was kinda thrown off when Golbat decides to unvote Mordanis because he started off having high confidence that he is scum. His "I am a newbie post" also contributes to my suspicions on him. I quickly dismissed them because I still have my FOS on Mordanis and he did a case on Golbat too.
Now that Ange777 has mentioned it, I would like to ask Golbat, what makes you think that Mordanis is not scum anymore? To me, his only "townie points" is that he is the first player who built a case, but that's about it. Is there some "obvious" reason that I missed? Every time I re-read Mordanis's posts I am more convinced that he is scum. The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS MordanisIt's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler +but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours And this: On July 27 2012 18:44 Golbat wrote:
I can understand why you would read my actions so far in the game as scum, but they're honestly just the actions of a bad player who thought he had a dead on scum read and was most likely very, very wrong. From now on i'll be more careful with who I vote for, because while I DID indeed redact my vote, I really really dislike when that happens on the whole. I got a little carried away and luckily it happened this early on and not in a situation where I might have cause a loss for town.
Basically, I'm NOT scum, and anything scummy I have said or done so far can be explained by my inexperience.
After reading Prom's post (especially the bit regarding self-imposed posting limits), I feel like it's time for me to take a break, especially after spewing so much bullshit and bad play all over the thread. See you in about 6-12 hours. As soon as people start pressuring him, Golbat says that he's not scum in 4 different ways. He emphasizes his newbieness, he says he's just eager to win, then he self-consciously makes a post to make himself not seem like a flip-flopper. Then, when he finally realizes he's digging himself into a hole, he decides to pull the Ostrich maneuver and stick his head into said hole for 6-12 hours. Undoubtedly, if he is red, he is now sending a clear signal to his buddies to bail him out and hopefully shift the discussion to someone else by the time he is out of said hole. Next post will be about Golbat's "list post". EBWOP: Just realized I forgot to slot in why Mord's post makes me want to hold off to Day2/3--Mord highlights "drawing attention to himself" and a willingness to stand up for his beliefs as keystones of his in-game habits. The thing with this playstyle is that playing as a "noisy scum" is very hard to keep up over 2 or 3 in-game days, because in a game as small as this, the analysis will very quickly start to shift in the right direction and noisy attempts to derail become more and more risky as the posts pile on--inevitably a fairly major scumslip will be made. By committing publicly to this sort of strategy, we can judge Mord the following way: if Mord continues to play loud and does not get quiet over the next few days, then Mord will either burn out quickly and scumslip or prove that he is not scum. If Mord quiets down after Day 1, then his above post basically consigns him to becoming an easy lynch-- especially if Golbat flips blue/green. the bolded part at the end is essentially saying that we should lynch Golbat and if he is green lynch Mord. That seems to be setting us up for two mislynches and, if Sands ever flips red these two are pretty much confirmed town. So based on Sands' play I think that he is scum. He has earned my FoS and as of this moment he would be my vote if nothing changed between now and lynch. I'll be keeping my eye on him because, as he said, Show nested quote +By committing publicly to this sort of strategy, we can judge Mord the following way: if Mord continues to play loud and does not get quiet over the next few days, then Mord will either burn out quickly and scumslip or prove that he is not scum. If Mord quiets down after Day 1, then his above post basically consigns him to becoming an easy lynch just replace Mord with Sands and you see the truth of the statement. He has to keep going and, as Keir well knows, loud scum are easy to find. , which contains the nugget: "Where he puts a lot of bull shit into the thread and nothing real. He literally used post counts to increase the size of his filter." I'd like to know how you, Promethelax, can try to moderate for inane/useless posts when you've been at least as bad as anyone else. The other thing that confuses me is the petulance with which Promethelax is trying to become the "town mayor". Here are a few examples: + Show Spoiler +On July 31 2012 17:33 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2012 17:29 Mordanis wrote:On July 31 2012 17:16 DarthPunk wrote:On July 31 2012 17:14 Mordanis wrote:
Just for clarity, is there definitely 3 scum or is the number ambiguous? Same for other roles, i.e. could there be multiple vigis or medics etc.? This has been answered previously http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++ we are loosely based on this setup. so multiple blue roles and no confirmed number of reds or blues. C9++ also allows for SK, which is why I wanted to make sure this is indeed the case. How loose is loosely? If you have set up questions ask the host otherwise you are just wasting thread space and padding your filter while adding nothing to the thread. On July 30 2012 18:14 Promethelax wrote:
Sorry I'm on my way to bed and I figured I would quickly reply to Karma before falling asleep. I am sure I'll miss some points but the basic one of why is my play so different now than it was is that I work Tuesday-Saturday. I play better on my days off.
As to the town leader thing: I just spent like ten minutes looking for the quote but couldn't find it. I think it was Marv who said (and I'm paraphrasing) "town needs two things, a good annalist and a good leader; they don't have to be the same person they just both have to exist" I'm not saying I should be a town leader or a town analyst, I am saying that town is following my analysis and that I am taking things said by players whom I greatly respect and trying to forge my town play around that. If the two things that town needs are a good leader and someone with good analysis I will try to provide both.
I think you and I don't see eye to eye on what a town leader is. I'm not saying we should elect a mayor, I'm saying having someone who is clearly pro-town trying to create a pro-town environment is a necessity for town. By town leader I mean someone who is creating an environment where town flourishes even if the person creating that environment has their head up their ass on every single one of their reads. . Now I am familiar with how some things in this game just don't function the way you'd expect them to, but why town would need a leader is beyond me. People who disrupt scum-hunting should be noticed, but I don't know why having a judiciary saying "Thou shalt not do X" helps, especially when scum tend to try to gain that position quite often. And why town only needs one analyst is also beyond me, as it seems that the more the merrier. I think scum would be the ones wanting people following one of 2 people at all times, not town. Essentially, from what I've read about XIX Promethelax kind of mauled town by getting into the "town circle", and controlling the game from there. I don't think a smart person could try the same strategy against people its already been used on and expect to win again. For that reason, Promethelax's inconsistent/illogical/ seems to be a mild indicator of scumminess. Also, being relatively inactive during one day reduces the amount of stuff any player needs to defend himself later. Edit before having to double post (EBHTDP) I am still confused by large parts of his play. For instance the part about lynching semi-lurkers seems sort of like what he's doing. GK hasn't posted nearly as many times as Prom himself, myself, Keir, Ange, Obvious, or Shady. 6 players of 12 left have 3 or more pages in their filter, the other 6 have 2. GK has spent a lot of his time defending himself, so if you take that away he's pretty lurky. But the caffeine is wearing off now, see y'all in the morning. Still, I like the content he generated with that post on GK, so I'll be watching Prom closely. I seriously need to pass out now though :/ He states many reasons why he thinks prom is scummy, yet the conclusion of the post doesn't really say anything and is incredibly wishy-washy. His next post + Show Spoiler +On August 01 2012 03:54 Mordanis wrote:
My opinion on whom to lynch will be heavily influenced by what Prom and SS post. I will be able to vote (don't have anything to take me away) and if neither post in like 20 minutes, I'll just go ahead without their posts. He doesn't want to commit to anyone without having as much information as possible. To me this is very scummy. + Show Spoiler +On August 01 2012 04:50 Mordanis wrote:
TT
Was hoping I wouldn't have to do this, but here goes. I do not understand Promethelax's play. It has been at times hypocritical, illogical, and bad. I see very little scum motivation for the way he's been playing, assuming he's a competent player. I don't see any town motivation either, so I would prefer to wait to see if he continues to play the way he has. I haven't been able to look into GK's play much, and Promethelax's case on him isn't very strong, so I can't in good conscience vote for him unless I see another good case on him. Shady is in a similar position to Prom where he's had lurky play one day and weird play the other. Still, I can't seem to pin his play in this cycle as scummy. I don't know why people are suspicious of Zork.
In other words, we have kind of a lousy set of cases today, for which I hold myself partly responsible. All in all though, I feel that Promethelax is the best target. His play could be described as a way to disrupt the scum-hunt, to get into a position of town-trust, to buddy up with players to make them feel bad for voting for him. I actually feel bad voting for him at this point, but he is my strongest read.
##Vote: Promethelax The half of the post in which he actually votes for someone Is actually spent being wishy-washy and distancing himself from a mis-lynch. Show nested quote +I haven't been able to look into GK's play much, and Promethelax's case on him isn't very strong, so I can't in good conscience vote for him unless I see another good case on him. Shady is in a similar position to Prom where he's had lurky play one day and weird play the other. Still, I can't seem to pin his play in this cycle as scummy. I don't know why people are suspicious of Zork. He doesn't give any good reasons for jumping on the promethelax vote at the last minute. Doesn't state why he feels like it is a bad choice. doesn't really say anything. His play from the Golbat lynch onwards has been like night and day, there is a Dramatic shift in style and he is spending a lot of time trying to lay low, make wishy-washy conclusions mitigate damage etc. I have always found Mordanis to be suspicious. I continue to find him suspicious. I have watched him and will continue to watch him.
I am convinced that you will find, as I have, that he's contributed nothing of value here. My earlier case will be posted near the bottom of this post, but allow me to add a couple new points. First, I need to emphasize that if we mislynch here every turn for the rest of the game is LYLO for town + Show Spoiler +(I'm still assuming three town and no more doctor/RB saves.)
aRyuujin, Zorkmid, MrMedic/JingleHell, Obvious
All of these people remain semi-lurky, but I still believe there is a scum gold-mine waiting to be worked here. I am quite certain that at least 2 scum live amongst those four names, with Obvious being my weakest suspect right now for reasons described above. Another thing that voting for aRyuujin brings to the table is that he has already supplied Mordanis as a suspect. If he flips red, which I'm confident at this point he will, that will help affirm Mordanis's innocence. I find it highly unlikely scum will bus one of their buddies when they are this close to winning.
One more point on aRyuujin:
He brought up MrMedic as his "back-up vote" day one, then never came back to discuss him ever again. I don't see how he could go from having such conviction on lynching someone to totally forgetting about said person. I'll leave it up to everyone to find the exact quote. It shouldn't be hard with his sparse filter.
|
(continued):
My original arguement:
+ Show Spoiler +On July 31 2012 14:14 goodkarma wrote:As the voting deadline approaches (and no one has voted yet lol), I would like to elaborate further on my aRyuujin case.: + Show Spoiler +On July 28 2012 01:48 aRyuujin wrote:aRyuujin/MrMedic
+ Show Spoiler +Suspecting me-Smart I did not yet provide posts Either i'm scum or A really bad Town. Mr Medic comes to mind For these reasons too On July 27 2012 11:53 MrMedic wrote:
Ok, I am sorry about all these little posts I am doing. I am new to the game and am kinda reluctant to do a big first post but I will try now since everyone is telling me to post something worth while (I agree also).
First, I agree with Darthpunk for a variety of reasons. The largest reason in all of this is that he is constantly saying contradictions with him self. Saying that we should lynch Mr K in his third option and he says this would be great but in the other options while saying this he says we might ruin the town more or it will be bad for the town. But the thing that most strikes me is that he says number 2 is the least probable but he says in his third option that we should lynch him now. But he says at the end we shouldn't lynch him right now. What this really shows is that he is trying to force the option one on too our minds and make us think that he just trying to take one for the team. So in conclusion, he is on top of showing what option he wants us to do. Also, he only shows the options of killing him and as a result would not be a big deal or be a good thing and even though he tress to show the negativity of the situation in actuality he steers you away from it and making it seem like a positive outcome no matter what happens. His first content post he looks he's saying stuff showing fallacies He's bandwagoning and his analysis makes little sense if you understand how mordanis was posting those were 3 what-ifs false contribution and his confusing posts lead me to believe that he's either a bad town, or a mafioso backup vote's on him
+ Show Spoiler +You picked mordanis super fast. I don't see why you would keep swapping. On July 27 2012 17:14 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 16:59 Mordanis wrote:+ Show Spoiler [out of game] +About my attitude of being an arrogant asshole:
I read the remnants of your first blog completely by chance, and didn't see the subsequent posts and such. I judged you prematurely, and for that I am deeply sorry. Really, I am deeply ashamed about that, and I hope you will forgive me. I won't overcompensate, all I can say is that I'll try to be as objective as possible. Again, I offer my sincerest apologies. After that though, I still stand by my opinion that posting town reads is a bad idea. If you are correct, one townie breathes easier, but the mafia see them as a better target (those bastards really hate confirmed town :C). If you put a mafia on your town list though, they know that a bandwagon is that much more difficult, and you've taken the pressure off. + Show Spoiler +I honestly expected more people to have read that stupid blog and judge me for it, and I don't really blame you. I can get really hotheaded and overconfident when I see a solution (or in this case, potential mafia), and begin trying to slam a square peg into the area between the circle hole and the triangle hole. I'm still not sure about your scum status, but at the same time, I want to explore all possibilities, and casting a vote before the halfway mark of the day is foolish anyways. If you're scum, it gives you time to shape up your posting, and if you're not, it gives scum time to run a train on you. Even while I was writing up my reads, I saw other people who could be scum just as easily as you. But now that I've been able to refocus, I really think I should give other people some space to talk, especially because half the town hasn't even really contributed, and that's never a good thing. I do want to state that whatever my read are in my previous post, they should not be taken as me being 100% certain of a person's innocence/guilt. DarthPunk and Shady could easily be scum too, but I think that before we come to conclusions, we have to look at the big picture, and that hasn't really been completely painted yet. Over here, time wastes You continue to take back and go back on mord On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 18:42 alan133 wrote:
I have read and re-read the filters but couldn't find anything other than Mordanis' "meh" case on Kei and subsequent cases against Mordanis for that.
I was kinda thrown off when Golbat decides to unvote Mordanis because he started off having high confidence that he is scum. His "I am a newbie post" also contributes to my suspicions on him. I quickly dismissed them because I still have my FOS on Mordanis and he did a case on Golbat too.
Now that Ange777 has mentioned it, I would like to ask Golbat, what makes you think that Mordanis is not scum anymore? To me, his only "townie points" is that he is the first player who built a case, but that's about it. Is there some "obvious" reason that I missed? Every time I re-read Mordanis's posts I am more convinced that he is scum. The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS MordanisIt's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler +but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours But here, you go back without a new catalyst you appear to help but really, you're not (a super scum thing to do) ##FoS Golbat
I plan to vote you but it could easily change depends on the thread On July 27 2012 21:22 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 20:33 Shady Sands wrote:On July 27 2012 15:36 Mordanis wrote:... *Sigh* I'll begin by saying this: If the people jumping on my bandwagon 1/6th of the way through the first day are town, they are really doing a good job of muddling up the conversation. Look through the thread so far, and see that the only discussion before I posted my case was policy, and that very lenient. There was a lot of "Oop, don't want to attract attention, guess I'll say that we shouldn't policy lynch any lurkers". I admit that I rushed my two main posts, and they may have been suboptimal, but compare that to the entire rest of the populace. We've managed 2 cases so far, and I was one of them. The other is a direct response to mine. I really don't understand why the people who are tunnelling me are doing so: attacking the only person who has posted anything of substance (that isn't within the same bandwagon as you) seems anti-discussion. So while I certainly made a mistake in talking too much about Keir and potential blue roles, the biggest reason that I seem to be "in danger" is that I've been willing to say what I believe. Regardless, I see the bandwagon as being very interesting. There are 3 people who have had an overwhelming share in the activity against me. DarthPunk: He seems to have a hard time with my line of thought. I apologize, my last game ended with me and another player (Release <3) in a duel that had a lot secrecy and enigmatic reasoning. I came to this game expecting the same. If you take people at the face value of their words (In which case, I'm town so don't lynch me :D), then you tend to miss a lot of good reads. The way to catch scum is not to find the first invalid argument, but rather to find the players who are playing in an anti-town way. This includes delaying to reduce the amount of analysis, making the atmosphere bad for town, and muddling with plans. By posting my case on the first thing that I saw, I went in the direction of an atmosphere that welcomes content posting, started the scumhunt before it would have started had I not posted, and laid a fairly straightforward path for the town without explicitly discussing policy. We lynch the player with the scummiest play. So while my read may not have been perfect, my post should have helped town. On the other hand, creating a mass bandwagon on the one person who has posted anything of substance (besides the counter substance) seems to accomplish the goals of scum. Still, he seems more to have an issue following my logic than to be following a plan, as well as being the first to place suspicion on me. I give him a solid "mEh" on the scum-scale Shady: The most brazen of my accusers. Doesn't seem to be following the fine points of the game very closely. Still doesn't appear to get that the day cycle is 48 hours and not 12. Has a great time posting out perceived errors in my logic and then votes for me on said perceptions, without seeming to notice that one of his main points + Show Spoiler +if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir. makes no sense. Why would scum draw attention to himself on a case this early? Why especially would the scum stick to his guns rather than move on to greener pastures? Seems like really dumb play for scum, although perhaps he thinks I am that dumb. I am pretty sure I'm more intelligent than a garbage can though... Anyways, despite my annoyance with him, his play seems more uniformed than scummy. So to you Shady I say: Read through the OP again, and preferably some of the guides. Your play so far has been far from inspiring. And compared to this group, that's saying something. Golbat: The entire time so far he seems to have been itching to get on my bandwagon. His first post with more than 1 line says: + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 09:15 Golbat wrote:
Howdy guys! This will be my first game of mafia ever that wasn't an sc2 UMS, and those I could never quite get the hang of (mostly due to nobody else having a clue what was going on either). Hopefully, I'll be able to make more sense of the game in a format like this.
As far as the game goes, Mordanis' post about Keir's post where he was "virtually claiming town RB" seems to be a pretty scummy thing to do. It didn't seem to me to be a secret claim of any sort, just a rules clarification. Even if it was a super-secret claim that he could use later, I wouldn't believe him if that was the only evidence he had.
From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt.
Not everyone has posted, so I don't yet want to commit to a vote, but I've got my eye on you Mordanis. First he makes an excuse for potential scumslips (First time in a non UMS, take it easy on me), and then proceeds to quietly second the position of DarthPunk. He seems to be trying to avoid attention while being able to make excuses later on, with the added bonus of being able to hop onto a bandwagon on me without much thought from other players. His second post + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 11:31 Golbat wrote:
I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today.
Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic).
is more of the same: he is trying to come off as pro-town without having to commit to anything as of yet. Particularly of importance is the phrase "I already have an idea of who might be scum". Almost brilliant, as it gives him the ability to jump on any bandwagon that forms. He could just say "Yep, just as I thought" and hop right on. Sure, it works better if the bandwagon was me, but if it ended on anyone else no one could say that he had flip-flopped. Finally, he posts this + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 13:36 Golbat wrote:
I mean honestly, it's gone on long enough.
##Vote Mordanis
If you're red, try to be less obvious next time.
If you're green, try to be less scummy next time.
I certainly hope you're not a blue. Awesome, he jumps on the bandwagon in 2nd/3rd position, early enough that he seems to be "leading", but late enough that he can avoid later suspicion by saying "Shady was in front of me!". He even tries to end the discussion by agreeing that the case on me is open and shut. Vague Pro-town comments + early excuse + bandwagon-ing + anti-discussion = quadruple scummy. So for right now at least: ##Vote: Golbat+ Show Spoiler [nonsense about Keir] +I'm really getting bored with the stuff about this. Read my second post about his "claim" + Show Spoiler [spoilered for you convenience] +On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote:Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide: Show nested quote +The most useless kind of lynch is a last minute switch that is really easy and safe to hop on the bandwagon for. If there's a highly polarized lynch, the dead information + voting lists can provide a lot, even if the people accused are all innocent (then you can see who's manipulating just out of site).
In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum. Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Show nested quote +To keep this simple and save time, let's look at some heuristics to find potential targets, then go through their post history to get the best ones. Here are some common heuristics I use of blue indicators:
-Tries to contribute but doesn't stick their neck out
-Shows fear/wants to instinctively hide
-Drastically lower post quantity compared to games when they are green but still tries to contribute.
-Focuses most of their posts on blue roles or ignores them entirely.
-To figure out which role specifically, they will focus unnatural amounts of attention on that role, know the rules for that role thoroughly, or ignore it entirely while mentioning other blue roles. Figuring out the specific is difficult to ascertain and not always applicable, but these heuristics will hold up more often than not. Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler +). That's why I feel Keir isn't blue, because he seems to be trying to seem blue but some of his actions are the opposite. And there was the public question: when I was vigi, I asked several questions about my role, but to try to hide my role I never posted them publically, I PMd them. His play screams to me a somewhat experienced player trying to fake blue. I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss. TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red. , and find for me one place where I explicitly say that we should lynch Keir. All I said was that he isn't blue. Which leaves the two possibilities of him being scum or VT, which everyone seemed to interpret as pushing for a lynch. I over committed to defending what I still believe to be a good read for being 2 pages in, but I didn't try to start a bandwagon on him. If you really want to make a big deal out of a mistake and end the discussion before the day cycle is 1/4 of the way done, by all means just vote for me and agree that its obvious. If you don't feel that way, do your own analysis and point fingers. Town doesn't win by singing Kum Ba Yah, My Lord. I think this is pretty important to parse through, because it makes me want to refrain from lynching Mordanis until day 2 or 3. I'm going to state that I share Mordanis' and Keir's concerns that Golbat may be scum. This is especially true if Mordanis flips green or blue--then Golbat is very clearly red, and vice versa. That being said, however, I'm still pretty suspicious of Mordanis' desire to start scumhunting an hour and a half into the game, when only half of the players had even posted. This was exacerbated by the fact that his case against Keir was extremely poor, almost intentionally so--as if Mordanis wanted more heat than light to be shed on the situation. One of the main things I'd like to point out here is that scum do not necessarily have to play quietly. It's easier for the scum to play that way, but playing loudly is also a valid scum tactic for sowing discord and division within the town--which is what I thought Mord's post was trying to do. Now that the Keir case is closed, however, and Mord+Keir have both identified Golbat's behavior as pretty odd in and of itself, then I think it would be worthwhile to take a look at Golbat. (I'm still a suspicious of Mord, but mainly because his behavior has created so much uncertainty as to what he really could be--and Golbat can clear up a lot of that.) Besides being the first one to "formally" vote for Mordanis, Golbat was also the first one to accuse Mord of faulty analysis. Granted, Golbat's claims were valid--but his more recent posts have made me pretty suspicious. First, let's ignore the list for a bit--we'll circle back to it, but one general thing to note about Golbat's posting: he seems to spend more time trying to make himself look like a townie than trying to figure out who is scum. This is the kicker that shifted my focus from Mord to him. Look at this train of posts below: + Show Spoiler [Golbat's posts since the "…] +On July 27 2012 16:21 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 16:14 Keirathi wrote:On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote:
Keir He hasn't even called out his accuser as being scummy at all.
On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote:
Mord I really like the OMGUS! vote though, <3.
So you call Mord out for OMGUS'ing you, but want me to OMGUS him? That's not what I said. I said that you didn't call him out at all, not that you didn't vote for him. I wouldn't expect you to vote for someone just because they voted for you. But saying "hey bro, cool your jets" at least would have been something. Until page 12 I'm pretty sure you didn't even respond to his accusations, but I might have missed a post. What Mord did was go "Oh so you're gonna vote for me? WELL I'M GONNA VOTE FOR YOU, TAKE THAT! Completely different. And then this post: On July 27 2012 16:49 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 16:26 Keirathi wrote:
@Goldbat: I responded to both of his posts regarding me with pretty strong dismissals for being a bad case. My apologies. I completely forgot about those two posts. Maybe i'm being too hasty with my accusing Mord of being scum from one bad read early in the game. It just seems really fishy that he stuck with it for so long. For the time being mord, I'm not convinced you're not scum, but i'm being convinced less and less that you are the more I think about it. So for the time being, ##unvoteI just really want to win my first game, and I want to do it while playing well, which is what got me excited to get a slam-dunk mafia kill on day one. I know for a fact that i'm not scum, and that's all I really know at this point. Right now, besides Mord, I think that our best bet is to see who isn't contributing anything to the discusssion and then get rid of them. I admit that all of my reads so far could be wrong 100%. However, i don't think posting my day1 reads about all of the people is the same thing as making a town list, because I didn't even give an opinion on half of the people. I could also do without your "oh look at how good I am, you guys are bad" attitude. This is a newbie game, and calling people bad accomplishes nothing except potentially driving people away. P.S. I know I said "i'm not one to throw votes around yadda yadda yadda, but + Show Spoiler +That was me trying to be all internet tough . I'll try to tone down my accusatory-ness, but that's just me being new to the game. And this: On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 18:42 alan133 wrote:
I have read and re-read the filters but couldn't find anything other than Mordanis' "meh" case on Kei and subsequent cases against Mordanis for that.
I was kinda thrown off when Golbat decides to unvote Mordanis because he started off having high confidence that he is scum. His "I am a newbie post" also contributes to my suspicions on him. I quickly dismissed them because I still have my FOS on Mordanis and he did a case on Golbat too.
Now that Ange777 has mentioned it, I would like to ask Golbat, what makes you think that Mordanis is not scum anymore? To me, his only "townie points" is that he is the first player who built a case, but that's about it. Is there some "obvious" reason that I missed? Every time I re-read Mordanis's posts I am more convinced that he is scum. The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS MordanisIt's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler +but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours And this: On July 27 2012 18:44 Golbat wrote:
I can understand why you would read my actions so far in the game as scum, but they're honestly just the actions of a bad player who thought he had a dead on scum read and was most likely very, very wrong. From now on i'll be more careful with who I vote for, because while I DID indeed redact my vote, I really really dislike when that happens on the whole. I got a little carried away and luckily it happened this early on and not in a situation where I might have cause a loss for town.
Basically, I'm NOT scum, and anything scummy I have said or done so far can be explained by my inexperience.
After reading Prom's post (especially the bit regarding self-imposed posting limits), I feel like it's time for me to take a break, especially after spewing so much bullshit and bad play all over the thread. See you in about 6-12 hours. As soon as people start pressuring him, Golbat says that he's not scum in 4 different ways. He emphasizes his newbieness, he says he's just eager to win, then he self-consciously makes a post to make himself not seem like a flip-flopper. Then, when he finally realizes he's digging himself into a hole, he decides to pull the Ostrich maneuver and stick his head into said hole for 6-12 hours. Undoubtedly, if he is red, he is now sending a clear signal to his buddies to bail him out and hopefully shift the discussion to someone else by the time he is out of said hole. Next post will be about Golbat's "list post". EBWOP: Just realized I forgot to slot in why Mord's post makes me want to hold off to Day2/3--Mord highlights "drawing attention to himself" and a willingness to stand up for his beliefs as keystones of his in-game habits. The thing with this playstyle is that playing as a "noisy scum" is very hard to keep up over 2 or 3 in-game days, because in a game as small as this, the analysis will very quickly start to shift in the right direction and noisy attempts to derail become more and more risky as the posts pile on--inevitably a fairly major scumslip will be made. By committing publicly to this sort of strategy, we can judge Mord the following way: if Mord continues to play loud and does not get quiet over the next few days, then Mord will either burn out quickly and scumslip or prove that he is not scum. If Mord quiets down after Day 1, then his above post basically consigns him to becoming an easy lynch--especially if Golbat flips blue/green. Shady's last edit summarizes why we dont vote for mordanis If he's mafia he will be a free kill soon if he's not, why vote Here is aRyuujin's first and only place where he provides some semblance of analysis. I invite you to look at his talk of Golbat and Mordanis. Here, he pretty much just takes the stance of others before him without contributing anything (namely Mordanis's, and later, SS's opinions on golbat and Shady Sand's opinions on Mordanis). His talk of MrMedic is the only place I've found where he's contributed any sort of opinion of his own on lynch suspects. So, I will grant aRyuujin one townie point for that. He goes on to discuss his arguement against Shady, which is conveniently Mordanis's: + Show Spoiler +On July 28 2012 06:44 aRyuujin wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2012 06:36 Mordanis wrote:I'm starting to get a really bad feeling about Shady. Remember his post that said that no game in 20 lynched scum D1? + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 09:02 Shady Sands wrote:
So pretty much, I looked through about 20 mafia games and found not a single night one lynch resulting in a red kill. This suggests one thing:
Day 1 scumhunting actually has a lower success rate than a random day 1 lynch. If the lynches had been truly random, then maybe 20-30% of the games should have had day 1 lynches turn up red, but none of them did. Here are the D1 lynches from several games: NMM XXI: blue NMM XX: red NMM XIX: blue NMM XVIII: green NMM XVII: red NMM XVI: blue (I couldn't find XV or XIV, so I chose to go to the SNMMs) SNMM XI: red SNMM X: green SNMM IX: green So we have 3 blues lynched, 3 VT lynched, and 3 scum lynched. So it would appear that in Newbie mini mafia games, there is about a 1/3 chance of lynching scum D1. With 3/13 chance a random lynch would hit scum (~24%), and historically a 1/3 chance of hitting scum through hunting, the choice is clear. This is for future reference really, as we're already hunting. But this brings up the fact that Shady almost certainly lied. Now there is sometimes a reason for a townie to lie. If it opens up an avenue for them to discover scum, or take one for the team, or accomplishes another goal it can be a boon to lie to the town. On the other hand, by suggesting that scum hunting D1 is useless, Shady is 1) discouraging discussion (why discuss when it only lowers the probability of hitting scum?), 2) stalling the game (mafia wants to stall as long as possible. they use their kp regardless of where our lynch ends up), and 3) trying to influence newbies' thinking (if analysis/scum hunt isn't the main priority, then mafia get off free for mistakes while being able to penalize some other player. This goes with stalling). In short, Shady lied in a pretty baldfaced manner, and the lie only serves the interest of mafia. Also, after reading through Obvious's filter last game, I saw that his behavior was almost identical to Golbat's. Golbat, you need to contribute, because if you don't, you're going to be looking even scummier. But I have seen almost identical play from a townie (Obvious was lynched D1 though), so for now I am going to switch my vote. ##Unvote
##Vote: Shady_Sands No good townie would try for such a bad gambit that early day 1 But it makes me think Why would a mafioso Lie obviously? But the one thing that also struck me is how indecisive he is. Look at a couple of posts on the subject: At Golbat: Show nested quote +On July 28 2012 01:48 aRyuujin wrote:
I plan to vote you
but it could easily change
depends on the thread Depends on the thread? What about on his defense? It seems in your mind you've already condemned him without giving him a chance, but that you want to make it look as if you haven't made up your mind so nothing backfires on you. Also, you discuss your opinion that voting early is an "unintelligent thing to do," which certainly is true if you don't want to stand out.: Show nested quote +On July 28 2012 14:28 aRyuujin wrote:
I FoS'd him, but I'm not gonna vote that early, no intelligent player would. And barring another Prox intervention, I will admit this evidence: Show nested quote +On July 29 2012 06:27 aRyuujin wrote:
I'll be here for the next couple of hours.
Wow, that sucked. Really wish he just claimed though, when he realized that he was a lynch possibility.
To be fair, I still think his actions were the most scummy so far, and I definitely would make that vote again. At the very least, on this day, he has been around but not posting, and has told us so in this thread. So allow me to summarize my case, as I've brought to your attention a few items here, but there's others scattered in some of my other postings. Admittedly, some of the scummy traits I've posted about aRyuujin are small. But I believe that when you put the pieces together, aRyuujin fits far better as scum than he does as town.: Indecision: As is demonstrated, by the two quotes above: he is willing to plan on voting for someone but only will if it's okay based on the thread. Further, he would be unwilling to get behind someone he feels is scum with an early vote. Posting history: There is at least one confirmed case of him deliberately passing up on the opportunity to post and provide analysis of his own position. Some other small, earlier points: -He has a few confusing bits of logic he's posted that just aren't true, such as his "if he's mafia," people x and y who defended him are too." I've discussed this in a prior posting and won't elaborate here. -He chose haiku as a posting style, which made getting a read on him twice difficult, and may have been deliberate. He didn't quit until he was called out for it. -He spoilered his first analysis, as though he didn't want to take ownership of it, and stopped when he was called out for it. "Blending in" without contributing: He hasn't contributed anything and has rehashed other people's ideas as his own "opinions," with the possible exception of his MrMedic comment. I hope to hear from Ayruujin soon on my case against him. I would like him to know I am looking at this case with an open mind. Presently, he looks very scummy to me, and I want to hear from him a little bit about his posting habits and why it is that he has been content to get behind other people without contributing anything of his own. I plan to look through and consider other people's cases before placing my vote, as I'm still a little behind. I will be sure to provide a little commentary on them and my reasoning for my vote in said upcoming post.
For the reasons described above, I'm voting for aRyuujin.
##Vote aRyuujin
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EPT
