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Newbie Mini Mafia XXI - Page 61

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-07-29 23:35:05
July 29 2012 23:31 GMT
#1201
QTs
Hosts
Mafia
Observation

Action Spreadsheet
Sheet
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
July 29 2012 23:34 GMT
#1202
Thanks everyone for an interesting game.

I apologise again for the delays in some of the posts. Work has fucked me over hard time and it interfered with how this game was run. It was my first attempt at hosting and there are mistakes I won't make again. I hope you had fun.

Thanks especially to my cohosts with special mention to Risen and Acrofales who supplied day/night posts as well as vote counts. Bluelightz, well you supplied moral support.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Speedbump
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
New Zealand338 Posts
July 29 2012 23:40 GMT
#1203
GG everyone.

I do apologise to everyone for my slowish play. I found it quite hard to play this game, as joining half-way through felt like being thrown in the deep end. I was debating whether or not to replace myself once I had internet troubles, but I felt that would ruin the game. I am also sorry at calgar, if I was BM in my posting manner.

I thank Hapahauli very much for helping me not throw the game away, and also helping me learn how to post slightly better than I did at the start. I also thank Mufaa for giving me the opportunity to play badly in this game.

Cheers to Probulous/Acrofales/BlazingHand/VisceraEyes for running this fun game, even if they ironically forgot about us old bastards.
JingleHell
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States11308 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-07-29 23:54:52
July 29 2012 23:54 GMT
#1204
Well, D2 demonstrated the power of aggressive town posts. If people are active enough to vote. After I died, I realized that one of (and ONLY one, instead of both or neither) Hapa or Calgar probably was scum, but I really expected Calgar. Hapa does a good job of thinking himself through and sticking to his meta.

False sense of security in scum, good. Obvious breadcrumb, bad. Obvious breadcrumb being completely missed by scum, utterly irrelevant, and trying to use plan Q to WIFOM breadcrumb into a case? Priceless.
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
July 30 2012 00:06 GMT
#1205
GG folks! Things were shaping up to be very one-sided until the drwiggl3s lynch, which made the last few days really interesting on both ends - had a lot of fun with the game on the red side of things.

On July 30 2012 08:30 JingleHell wrote:
So, would a scum mind explaining the NKs that weren't me?


Augh, the NK's were terrriiiibad in hindsight. Kinda got lucky not shooting Calgar though. Here's the rundown:

Night 1: - I liked the general direction of the town D1 (from a scum perspective) and the EvulRabbitz NK was a way to get a "clean kill," keeping the town pointing suspicions at each other. Evul was also being really really quiet, and we thought he could be the medic or something. This, in hindsight, was stupid considering his DT meta in Newbie XX. We also debated killing Fulla (possible bluesnipe/clean kill) and Calgar (town analyst)

Night 2: Killed Jingle (duh) on the basis that Medic/Jailer/3rd blue seemed too OP a possible blue setup. Fun fact: none of us spotted Jingle's breadcrumb.

Night 3: Killed Fulla as a bluesnipe. In retrospect, this was a terrible decision, and we should have shot YourHarry without question.

Night 4: YourHarry for being a confirmed townie.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
JingleHell
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States11308 Posts
July 30 2012 00:30 GMT
#1206
To be fair, YH as a confirmed townie is... probably pro-scum.
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
July 30 2012 00:37 GMT
#1207
I think Release lived on in spirit through YourHarry this game... I have no idea what YH was thinking half the time.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25563 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-07-30 01:01:08
July 30 2012 00:56 GMT
#1208
Congrats to hapa for playing a brilliant scum game.

Good work townies on the wiggles lynch.

Reference: in this game I coaches jingle and calgar extensively. Yourharry, hopeless, and perfection all asked some specific q&a.

Edit: a vet claim at lylo is meaningless. Calgar had nothing to gain and plenty to lose from claiming vet.

Although I'm a bit surprised and dismayed that speedbump, a replacement who straight up lurked, was not lynched, even if he was I think Hapa was well concealed within the town.

Also, iamperfection should have known calgar was town since he had a town read on hopeless-- if calgar is scum, even, one of hapa/speed had to be scum, and for them to bus so thoroughly made little sense.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
July 30 2012 01:24 GMT
#1209
Just wanted to comment on Calgar's defense against my "cases:"
Reference: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&currentpage=59#1171

For starters, I liked Calgar's defensive style - bolded points w/ spoiler tags, I'mma goin to steal that from him.

When defending himself against my case, Calgar had some really really good stuff for his defense that unfortunately got buried in the rest of his post. His point, "revisiting the breadcrumb" was incredibly strong, and spamming it throughout the thread may well have saved him from getting lynched. IMO it practically confirmed him as town, and I was terrified of addressing it directly (hence me burying it at the end of my "formal response" to his defense, dismissing it as "WIFOM").

Furthermore, he didn't push for Speedbump's lynch nearly hard enough. The bulk of Calgar's plea to lynch Speedbump was buried in a longer 4-paragraph post (HERE). When dealing with less-vocal townies (Hopeless and iamperfection), it may be more effective to emphasize your suspicions (bold "speedbump is scummy", "why isn't he dead as replacement", etc) - tell people how to think rather than trust them to read and consider your posts.


On July 30 2012 09:56 Blazinghand wrote:
...
Also, iamperfection should have known calgar was town since he had a town read on hopeless-- if calgar is scum, even, one of hapa/speed had to be scum, and for them to bus so thoroughly made little sense.


Can you explain this? Thanks!
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 30 2012 01:38 GMT
#1210
On July 30 2012 10:24 Hapahauli wrote:
Furthermore, he didn't push for Speedbump's lynch nearly hard enough. The bulk of Calgar's plea to lynch Speedbump was buried in a longer 4-paragraph post (HERE). When dealing with less-vocal townies (Hopeless and iamperfection), it may be more effective to emphasize your suspicions (bold "speedbump is scummy", "why isn't he dead as replacement", etc) - tell people how to think rather than trust them to read and consider your posts.
Eh, I dunno. I don't think I could have overcome confirmation bias... they weren't contemplating any other possibility. Anything I said would have been (and was) twisted immediately and since they hadn't figured it out by then I don't think anything I could have said would have mattered.

To me the final giveaway was when you made the fake 'FoS' and then backed off and came at me with the huge 'case'.
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25563 Posts
July 30 2012 01:40 GMT
#1211
On July 30 2012 10:24 Hapahauli wrote:

Show nested quote +
On July 30 2012 09:56 Blazinghand wrote:
...
Also, iamperfection should have known calgar was town since he had a town read on hopeless-- if calgar is scum, even, one of hapa/speed had to be scum, and for them to bus so thoroughly made little sense.


Can you explain this? Thanks!


Perfection said to me he was super super strongly reading town on hopeless. That means among calgar, speedbump, and hapa he thought there were 2 scum and 1 town.

If the town was speedbump, the two scum would have pushed him together. If the town was hapa, maybe not. For calgar, though, it wouldnt ever make sense to push HIM if he was scum. Why would speedbump bus him rather than the other way around, or even going after perfection, who had almost been lynched so many times?

There was no way you would bus calgar so hard, so early, and so aggressively. Hopeless didnt have a strong read, and maybe thought it was calgar perfection scumteam, but perfection was very sure hopeless was town, which given speed and hapas d2 play should have led him to the truth.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
July 30 2012 01:41 GMT
#1212
On July 30 2012 10:24 Hapahauli wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 30 2012 09:56 Blazinghand wrote:
...
Also, iamperfection should have known calgar was town since he had a town read on hopeless-- if calgar is scum, even, one of hapa/speed had to be scum, and for them to bus so thoroughly made little sense.


Can you explain this? Thanks!


It is simple really. There are five people left with two mafia and three town.

iamperfection knows he is town and has a town read on hopeless1der. That means two scum out of hapa, Speed and Calgar. The fact that Calgar and speed were pushing Calgar so hard should have made it clear they were working together.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25563 Posts
July 30 2012 01:41 GMT
#1213
On July 30 2012 10:38 calgar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 30 2012 10:24 Hapahauli wrote:
Furthermore, he didn't push for Speedbump's lynch nearly hard enough. The bulk of Calgar's plea to lynch Speedbump was buried in a longer 4-paragraph post (HERE). When dealing with less-vocal townies (Hopeless and iamperfection), it may be more effective to emphasize your suspicions (bold "speedbump is scummy", "why isn't he dead as replacement", etc) - tell people how to think rather than trust them to read and consider your posts.
Eh, I dunno. I don't think I could have overcome confirmation bias... they weren't contemplating any other possibility. Anything I said would have been (and was) twisted immediately and since they hadn't figured it out by then I don't think anything I could have said would have mattered.

To me the final giveaway was when you made the fake 'FoS' and then backed off and came at me with the huge 'case'.


I personally think your position was still winnable, just very tough. It happens, though.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
July 30 2012 01:41 GMT
#1214
ROFl, there be ninjas about
>_>
<_<
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 30 2012 01:45 GMT
#1215
On July 30 2012 10:41 Blazinghand wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 30 2012 10:38 calgar wrote:
On July 30 2012 10:24 Hapahauli wrote:
Furthermore, he didn't push for Speedbump's lynch nearly hard enough. The bulk of Calgar's plea to lynch Speedbump was buried in a longer 4-paragraph post (HERE). When dealing with less-vocal townies (Hopeless and iamperfection), it may be more effective to emphasize your suspicions (bold "speedbump is scummy", "why isn't he dead as replacement", etc) - tell people how to think rather than trust them to read and consider your posts.
Eh, I dunno. I don't think I could have overcome confirmation bias... they weren't contemplating any other possibility. Anything I said would have been (and was) twisted immediately and since they hadn't figured it out by then I don't think anything I could have said would have mattered.

To me the final giveaway was when you made the fake 'FoS' and then backed off and came at me with the huge 'case'.


I personally think your position was still winnable, just very tough. It happens, though.
Yeah, you're right, it's always possible. They weren't really even in the thread though (perfection was sure he was right judging from his boss scum post) so I chose to just give up instead of investing a lot more time into the small chance at changing their minds.
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
July 30 2012 02:02 GMT
#1216
On July 30 2012 10:38 calgar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 30 2012 10:24 Hapahauli wrote:
Furthermore, he didn't push for Speedbump's lynch nearly hard enough. The bulk of Calgar's plea to lynch Speedbump was buried in a longer 4-paragraph post (HERE). When dealing with less-vocal townies (Hopeless and iamperfection), it may be more effective to emphasize your suspicions (bold "speedbump is scummy", "why isn't he dead as replacement", etc) - tell people how to think rather than trust them to read and consider your posts.
Eh, I dunno. I don't think I could have overcome confirmation bias... they weren't contemplating any other possibility. Anything I said would have been (and was) twisted immediately and since they hadn't figured it out by then I don't think anything I could have said would have mattered.


Well that's what I mean - you trust the town's analyitical skills too much. By the time you start being aggressive, the town is already convinced of your guilt. For example, what if you responed to my original accusation like this:

"It doesn't make sense for me to be scum considering my reverse-breadcrumb at JingleHell. Scum Calgar would have NK'd him on the spot. There would be no reason for me to leave him alive, unless I somehow forsaw these events a week ago.

If someone can prove to me how this doesn't confirm me as town, I'll respond to the accusations against me."

IMO, you'd have a pretty good chance of convincing Hopeless and iamperfection of your innocence.

To me the final giveaway was when you made the fake 'FoS' and then backed off and came at me with the huge 'case'.


Yeah, at that point, I figured I could close out the game regardless of your suspicions.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 30 2012 03:07 GMT
#1217
The potential 'detect' breadcrumb in my post that was discussed gave me a laugh!
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
July 30 2012 03:11 GMT
#1218
Yeah... I didn't pick up on the whole "mod apologizing" thing until you pointed it out =P
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 30 2012 03:17 GMT
#1219
I thought about fakeclaiming but eventually decided not to. Guess it would have been worth a shot in hindsight.
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
July 30 2012 03:21 GMT
#1220
If you fakeclaimed (or from my in-game perspective, actually claimed), I was going to accuse you of lying unless you breadcrumbed your role and all your reads. Since you didn't breadcrumb, you would have looked really bad given that you reverse-breadcrumbed JK to Jingle.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
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