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Mackin
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On July 05 2012 07:22 Hopeless1der wrote: Mackin give the poor guy a chance, he's just a little excited I think. I just wanted to give him a heads up so he checks his posts more carefully, that way we can narrow down our scum lists earlier rather than later. Fair enough point, but I just want to stir up some conversation to get people talking. Ain't that what Mafia's all about? | ||
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On July 05 2012 15:44 BassInSpace wrote: Also, Mackin seems to have completely dropped off with no significant contributions whatsoever, and we KNOW he was around during most of the discussion during this first 24 hours. Not too sure about the other lurkers yet obviously, but I know JieXian and I will have similar post timing (see NMM XVIII) because we’re only 2 hours apart. Ok, so yeah dropped off but not exactly available 24/7 so it's not really that strange - just different time zones / bed times is all. I agree I haven't contributed too much, but call me out on anything I say and I'll justify it. On July 05 2012 21:09 Lazermonkey wrote: Some good analysis there Hapa. Although I can't really contribute anything on Mackin as his filter is just that long. I only find the first post of him to be intresting tho. I don't agree with my post be contradictory which I have already said a dozen of times. Yes, I did use bad wording but that's about it. Also look at the timing. Basically echoing what Hope had already said at that point. The other posts from him is indeed fluff, which is at best bad town play. Overall Mackin is kinda null for me although with the slightest scum vibes due to his first post. I consider him a lurker atm and he really needs to post more before I make a clear read. TMG on the other hand i feel is playing in a very anti-town way. I'd say he is my number 2 scumread after Jingle atm. Ok Lazer, I'm ready to contribute - I'll be pretty active for a good while if I have anything to add  As I said before, don't jump to point the FoS on me just because I have different sleeping times than others. I see the post isn't exactly contradictory now but it still is worded badly, and I think I was one of two who misinterpreted what he was saying about roleclaiming. // On July 06 2012 02:31 JieXian wrote: My FOS is on Mackin for trying to light up fires and disappearing as town burns. His thoughtless posting reminds me so much of mafia behavior. I would agree with you on that point except for the fact that if you read the thread you would realise I wasn't the only one trying to get people talking by saying stuff about their names. If anything I've been pro-town by trying to get people to post which I think worked in some small part, because now it's clearer to see people's stance on each other since they have actually been posting. More posts in thread = more informed decisions - absolutely true in Mafia. Also for Hapahauli, you're using words like "huge red flag" and "very anti town" when my motive was simply to get the ball rolling in this game. I feel this is very harsh for how little I've posted, but hopefully I'll have something to add when I re-read everyone's posts. On July 06 2012 02:37 JieXian wrote: Let's focus on lurkers like Mackin ATM. I know I might qualify as one but I have nothing to add to the lazer/hapa vs hopeless/release/jingle babbling Back to JieXian: Focus on me all you want, I have nothing but valid reasons for posting what I have so far, call me out if you want an explanation. [B]On July 06 2012 04:33 The_Zen_Man wrote: So far, Mackin has not posted anything of worth, only tried a bandwagon and agreeing with other players. Fos: Mackin Hmm, I know you say I haven't posted anything of worth, but I disagree. As I have stated above, that in my eyes, it's not so much as the content I had posted but the post itself to get people talking is the main reason for my post. Anyway, the way I see it, I haven't exactly "bandwagoned" I just agree putting pressure on players earlier on as it helps to get them talking. Anyway, I'm gonna look into everyone's post again and post my thoughts on some of the other players... | ||
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On July 06 2012 05:45 Hopeless1der wrote: Bandwagoning allows for the exact opposite of what you say. Its to place a vote without looking at the reasoning or thought behind it. If you were to post analysis on Mackin, thats analysis not bandwagoning to me. Perhaps we're disagreeing on the meaning and taken in the context of your post, sounds like a fair statement. I disagree with your definition of 'bandwagon'. Between the posts that I quoted regarding Release, two players had FOS'd him. You didn't explicitly say you had a FOS on Release but it did feel like it to me. Calling it 'huge' was overstepping things, and you maintain it wasn't a case at all, so I'll drop it, but I'm still seeing some underlying suspicion about Release. Also: Wut? That makes alot of sense to me Hopeless and I totally agree. Bandwagoning is giving no real thought to the situation whereas when there is a clear reason for siding with someone such as terrible posts, I'm all for agreeing with them and I don't see it as "Bandwagoning" Hapa what you said makes no sense to me. If I have made crappy posts, why wouldn't you side with Hopeless? It's hardly bandwagoning if you think you have anything to question me on. I have no inhibition to post and anyone who does have inhibition when people are stacking against them clearly has something to hide. | ||
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Release seems like he's on the town's side, as does Hapa, Zen and JieXian, who mostly has the same motive to get people talking as me. Many people have already given credible reasons for suspicion of others, including suspicion aimed at myself but I can see pretty much everyone isn't doing too bad at acting townie. | ||
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On July 06 2012 07:30 Lazermonkey wrote: While I agree with that both Release and Hapa are getting people to talk. However why Le fuck is Zen_Man and JieXian on that list? Both theese guys have basically said nothing except for being suspicious of you because of low post count. And they were invisible on D1 where getting people to talk is prehaps the most important. Let me clarify that Lazer, Zen and JieXian just haven't arisen my suspicions too much (the first part of the sentece where I say "Seem like he's on the town's side...." and I realise that what I've posted doesn't make perfect sense. What I meant was they hadn't aroused suspicion but when they did speak made points that any townie would want to make if they were unsure of my motives. The fact that they were invisible early doesn't say a whole lot to me (you mentioning talking in D1), as people can be online at vastly different times on a worldwide forum like this, so their "early talking" could be half way through the day etc. Anyway after this post I'll move on to Hapu's question just give me some time to re-read it all | ||
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Your case on Hopeless1der: I don't know what to think here. It's like Hopeless is really trying to build a case against you, he builds up quite alot in the first post and when you make your stance clear in your response, his response is to back down immediately. Maybe he just wanted to question you and test the water a bit? I don't think he's trying to genuinely full on attack and point the FoS here. I don't know why he starts going on about Release, if I was thinking more suspiciously of him, he maybe just wanted the conversation to change quickly and forget about building a case on you. Case vs. TMG26: Unless his English is really bad, I can see some basis for thinking he isn't exactly on townie side. He may be trying to be really diplomatic for the purposes of going through to the next day, but then again mafia will try to act diplomatic while pushing accusations at the same time like he did in that first quoted post. It's hard to know whats going on in that first post, because his English really isn't great so I'm undecided. I think the indecision may be out of fear of being lynched on day1 townie, but it's hard to know whether the indecision is because he isn't sure and doesn't want to accuse someone innocent or because he has a reason to be indecisive... I don't understand what he's trying to achieve. It does seem odd/slightly scummy but still undecided. Bass said: I don't quite understand. So you think that hopeless and jingle are mafia because hopeless defended jingle, but jingle and harry are actually your prime suspects? I'd just like this point clarified. All in all, TMG is my strongest read so far. I think that's a good point actually. why would harry be one of TMG's prime suspects if hopeless had defended jingle (if he is assuming jingle to be scummy?) Onto the case against Release: I think TMG's case against Release isn't so strong - anyone putting out an early FoS isn't that serious in D1 early stages as it keeps the discussion going and there is no strong points in the post you (hapa) have linked, whereas Evul brings up a better worded, but still annoyingly confusing case against him. I can see why he calls out certain things Release has said, but nothing said actually sounds too scummy to me, but I know I could easily be missing something. Anyway, I'm getting really tired, damn GMT time so I might have to goto bed soon | ||
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I'm just reading through now and thoughts will be posted very soon! | ||
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Evul has his case/claim now for being pro-town with his vote being important on the day 1 lynching. I don't see him as too suspicious so far. Zen_man I feel is pro town. Either that or he's good mafia. Don't know why he has such a strong hate against Lazer but I'm gonna look into Lazer in some more detail later. Lazer: I don't see anything from his posts that are particularly mafia so far. I really don't understand where people got off accusing him. I would like someone to point out the traits people see in him as mafia. Release: Literally no idea, from what he has posted I didn't learn much except for the fact he near toppled over back at end of D1 voting. It was so so good Hopeless was mafia because it said something about Release's read. YourHarry: My vote on him probably gave a lot of people a WTF type feeling. I just had some feeling that he was scum but since voting I'm not so sure. Hapa: Is being unbelievably good townie. I find it funny though because I've came up with some crazy theories on how he could be the Godfather who wanted to bus one of his men early to add confidence to his name, then acts and "is" pro town until the end where you discover he's really been the mastermind behind it all. I severely doubt this is the case though because he literally has provided really really good information and reads on each person, especially on Hopeless. It's easy to say now, but had I seen Hapa's post on why Hopeless had to go I would've switched votes... though I was unavailable at the time (which shouldn't be an issue anymore) Jingle: Scummy or not? Recently, if you look Jingle gets annoyingly defensive and suspicious every time he posted in response to grilling from Hapa. This could be for either two things - straight up scum or else genuine townie getting so annoyed. I don't know which way to take this but I'll say he's not on my townie list Bass: From what he has posted so far, I'm thinking he's town but meeeh... TMG: Meeh - I'll do one later Jie: Also do one later, but slightest scum vibes. | ||
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On July 08 2012 10:04 Hapahauli wrote: Welll... awesome? That worked out too well. We might have the game guaranteed won depending on DT/Tracker having the proper reads. Agreed. I'm thinking the game won't last too much longer...  | ||
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On July 08 2012 14:31 JieXian wrote: About Mackin, I've a feeling that he's just a lazy townie. His vote on YourHarry was probably because he jumped right to the last page and read my argument with Harry and just voted. He's right here. I was very short on time IRL and knew I had to get a vote down. I said early I was unavailable at the time but whatever. And whoever wants to ask me any questions, feel free. I have nothing to hide. Also glad to see Jingle cleared as if you check my earlier posts, I can't see anything I've said to overly mislead anyone. If you look at one of my larger blocks of text: On July 06 2012 08:42 Mackin wrote: @Hapa: Your case on Hopeless1der: I don't know what to think here. It's like Hopeless is really trying to build a case against you, he builds up quite alot in the first post and when you make your stance clear in your response, his response is to back down immediately. Maybe he just wanted to question you and test the water a bit? I don't think he's trying to genuinely full on attack and point the FoS here. I don't know why he starts going on about Release, if I was thinking more suspiciously of him, he maybe just wanted the conversation to change quickly and forget about building a case on you. I totally made a logical reason for why he posted talking about Release. I said that if he was scum, he was probably trying to distract from the case against him, and that proved correct no? In my opinion, I can't see any real just case against me, though feel free to bring it people. | ||
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just to make it clearer | ||
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On July 08 2012 20:43 BassInSpace wrote: Release, you really think Hapa would bus Hopeless at the very start of the game? I understand a bus on day 2 or day 3, but bussing at the very start when it's 3 v 10 and an open set up (town favoured) seems sub-optimal. Besides, I doubt Hopeless would agree to something like this. As much as mafia is meant to be a team game, I don't think Hopeless (or at least I wouldn't) would want to get bussed just for a team victory. He wouldn't be able to play for the rest of the game and would just be sitting on the sidelines. Btw Hapa and JieXian, he posted his little breadcrum before it was revealed Khorrus was the godfather. Even if the godfather is dead, his case doesn't become invalid just because he thought Hapa was the godfather. I just disagree with his case for reasons stated above. Well Bass, if I was playing mafia, I wouldn't mind being bussed if it meant a win - I understand you don't get to analyze and post as much but a win is a win regardless. Maybe it is just brilliant strategy as everyone's convinced on Hapa's pro-town status? If it did turn out Hapa was mafia it would be hilarious, because I can't see anyone wanting to lynch him the rest of the game. Fairly unlikely, but still possible. I'm wondering what happens if its decided to lynch Zen/Release/me and we all flip green. I'm fairly sure the mafia would be sitting happy and in great shape for actually winning with the odds against (s)he... Anyway I provided some defense earlier showing some pro-townie stuff I've said and some people have basically ignored it. Please read and comment appropriately. | ||
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On July 08 2012 21:26 BassInSpace wrote: That doesn't count. Yes, it's an analysis. But let's have a closer look at the bolded sections. You have the benefit of hindsight now in saying that you were right about Hopeless. At the time of making that post, you weren't sure about anything. You didn't even commit to anything. If Hopeless had flipped green, you could just argue and say "oh, look I was right, he really WAS just testing the waters". Fair enough I'll accept that as a fair point - I wasn't exactly decisive because it was so early on. I'm just saying I don't think I would be calling out hopeless so early on in D1, in that post I am quite indecisive because I honestly didn't know what to think about some people. Back then I did say that the case against Release wasn't strong and that I didn't know what to think about TMG, with most criticism on hopeless, not scummy behaviour in my opinion. If I was mafia, I'd say I'm playing terribly. I had been playing quite lazily at points which I'll admit, which I don't think a mafia player in this position would be so stupid to do. I'm gonna give my list of reads here, and I'll provide reasoning below this post where I feel it hasn't already been discussed elsewhere: 1 Evulrabbitz ---- Obviously pro-town 4 The_Zen_Man --- Not got a good feeling lately, but I'll post justification afterwards 5 Lazermonkey --- I've had him as pro town for a long time. Before D1 votes happened, I had him down as pro-town and because I missed the arguments people were having in between I still feel that post lynching he's town. 6 Release ---- Release I also had put down as pro-town but recently I'm not so sure. If he was to be lynched 7 YourHarry ---- Also have him down as pro-town. But does seem very lazy to suggest random lynchings. Still got lots of time to decide what todo regarding him. 9 Mackin === I am vanilla townie, and I don't see anything particularly scummy about my play so far. 10 Hapahauli ---- Have him down as pro pro townie, but as I said before, we should be careful after the next couple of lynchings if he is alive and there is still the mafia player. He provided valuable information in catching hopeless, but there's always that chance that it was a really smart mafia plan. 11 JingleHell ----- Definately pro-town in my opinion, no one counter-claimed Evul's DT which is good news. 12 BassInSpace ----- Valid points against me, but could be playing smart mafia trying to lynch the player with some weaknesses in play (aka me). If I get lynched please be careful of him as I'm undecided of why he's pushing me so hard. I really have nothing to hide so if I'm continually pushed I will be suspicious. 13 JieXian ----- Also pro townie. Claimed tracker with no opposition which is nice. This leaves 3 people in real contention for scum in my opinion. Zen, Bass, and the mastermind that could be: Hapa (but he most definately is my least suspected. I am a vanilla and that's it. Honestly can see why I'm not water tight but as long as Evul/Lazer/Jingle/Jie stay alive I think we win. Thats obviously subject to change depending on how people talk later on. If you do lynch me tonight, Bass is my top suspect. If not, and we don't get the mafia player, I know I'm not getting murdered because some people are pretent intent on pointing the FoS at me. | ||
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On July 08 2012 22:12 Evulrabbitz wrote: About Zen_Man asking if 3styla will replace Khorrus. That is totally innocent. In one of Khorrus first posts he says he needs replacement and completely random at like page 13 or so 3styla posts "/in". Zen_Man then asks if that was the replacement. I'm gonna agree with Evul on this point and sort of move away from suspicion of Zen. If Zen was scum and was worried there was no godfather then wouldn't he contact mods through PMs so as to not ruin the game? I don't think that's a good point from which to accuse him on, so for now, my suspicions are on Bass. | ||
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On July 08 2012 22:36 Mackin wrote: I'm gonna agree with Evul on this point and sort of move away from suspicion of Zen. If Zen was scum and was worried there was no godfather then wouldn't he contact mods through PMs so as to not ruin the game? I don't think that's a good point from which to accuse him on, so for now, my suspicions are on Bass. Just another point to add here: I know I had put Zen in my suspicions in my read of everyone just above and then I switched quickly, but I hadn't really thought of the above point until Evul brought the post up again. | ||
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If there is anything else anyone would like me to clearly point out to clear anything up - ask away | ||
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Is it me, release, hapa and most likely Xen? | ||
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On July 09 2012 06:28 Lazermonkey wrote: I want to kill either Zen or Release atm. Preferably Zen. I'm okay with lynching you if we can't lynch neither Zen or Release. I'm certainly not lynching Hapa. Not today. Good. The odds of Hapa being mafia are very low, and I'd only recommend it a day or two down the line. I have a feeling I'm gonna get lynched today or tomorrow but I don't mind because the odds are in our favor anyway. I'm not the guy you're looking for, but Zen has been very very quiet as you've said..... | ||
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It will be done. Give me some time. One thing though - Zen hasn't posted in a good while so my read on him will be not as good. | ||
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Release: What can I say here? There's nothing in particular in his last couple of pages of filter that gives any vibes of scum? Or am I missing something. Did Hapa in fact say Jingle was confirmed townie before Evul posted his claim? I don't remember that and I'll check after this analysis you asked for Release. Harry: + Show Spoiler + On July 08 2012 18:50 YourHarry wrote: Anyways town victory is almost a certainty. Even if we randomized all of our actions, as long as we lynch from unconfirmed list, we should cruise to victory. According to my calculations, something like 3% chance of losing. Additional strategy. Both detective and tracker should publicize who they will target. They should pick two different players. The medic can randomly protect tracker or detective, but if either detective or tracker makes it known that he will target the medic, do not protect that person (for example, detective plans to target A and tracker plans to target B, and if A turns out to be the medic, medic should protect the tracker who's targeting someone other than medic). Guidelines on day 3: Tracker and detective should immediately report. The perfect scenario is if any power role receives "innocent" or "no visit". As long as we have one additional confirmed townie, we are guaranteed a 100% victory. If detective is alive and he received "guilty" on player X, we should lynch X regardless. If detective is dead and tracker targeted the player Y who "visited Z", we should kill Y as long as Z got lynched at night. Again, Y cannot be the medic here because nurse should have protected the detective if tracker publicized his plan to target the medic (And yes, tracker is more powerful than detective at this time). I really want to play through this game, but I feel the responsibility to volunteer to lynch myself. I am a vanilla townie and I do not want to risk having to force the medic to claim. Good job Hapah, if you are town If not, you lose Good game everyone and good luck!! ##Vote YourHarry Wait, what? Just when Release asked me to look at Harry, I look more closely at this (marked in red). He posts "almost certainty" and goes on to provide clear analysis on how the game should/can progress. But what's wrong with that Mackin? --- Reasoning below: First off, I don't like how he says almost certainly, could be trying to lure us into false sense of security, all the while knowing there is that chance of getting away with it. But there is always the chance that the mafia player will get the correct lynch and then things roll more and more into their favor that he could be that mafia working his magic. He posts good analysis like that of a townie, but he could be scum trying to point out the odds for us so we think its won. I'm certainly not saying its 100% but voting for yourself seems strange and the attention was took off him when someone told him to be quiet and no need for the noble sacrifice blah blah blah. There is another post he done with good analysis but it could be a cover up of "almost certainty win" when he's planning to bluff his way as far in as possible. ZenMan I'm not liking how quiet Zen's gotten. If he is mafia, and we lynch him it's just gonna have been too easy. Maybe Mafia has given up, but not given up. Anyway for how little he has posted I'm thinking he could be mafia just gave up... For now, I'm gonna: ##vote ZenMan | ||
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Yeah but it could be the lurkiness of a mafia not giving a shit. Wanting to see how far he can get with as little effort possible due to the odds stacked against him. Also someone said scummy voting patterns that another thing I'll have to check out. Good night all! | ||
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Also some people including you said scummy voting patterns*** damn I'm tired | ||
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##unvote Vote Release | ||
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##unvote ##Vote Release | ||
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Anyway I was suspicious of Bass already as multiple times he's been hinting to lynch me. He'll be getting my vote anyways. | ||
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I don't see much point in arguing my case, as from my lurkiness I do not see anyone being particularly convinced that I'm not mafia, so my defense would be in trying to push a better case against Bass, who I think is a better case (Looking at Evul's analysis of him which I thought was pretty good). Either way, if you do decide to lynch me and see that I'm VT at least you'll know Bass to be the prime suspect and who I believe to be the scum. For some reason I have a sneaking suspicion that I might be the miller - I'm not sure why I think this but hopefully I am and when I'm lynched (I think it's too late to convince otherwise) Bass will be the clear option for lynching and it will be townie win. Ima end with this vote but I don't expect much to be able to convince anyone else: ##Vote BassInSpace PS. It will be easy for others to say I'm not making a strong defense which is bad but many of those still in the game have blue roles or were confirmed townie by those same blues so they don't have to do anything to prove their innocence. I think it's a lot easier playing blue and there's no real post I can see to convict anyone else at this point. I'll try looking for some dirt later but leaving it here for now. | ||
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##Vote BassInSpace | ||
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On July 13 2012 05:01 Hapahauli wrote: We're bandwagoning a guy with pro-town behavior on the hope and prayer that he's mafia. Hold on a minute. I'm gonna call BS on this Hapa. If you think about it, if I'm lynched tonight whats gonna happen when I flip green? Tomorrow everyone's gonna jump on Bass and if he is green too the mafia will be laughing. It's pretty anti-town to be voting for me today as I feel 50% chance that Bass is mafia is a LOT higher than any crap you've got on me. I'm 100% convinced Bass is a better lynch target for the following reasons: 1. If you lynch me tonight, I'll flip green and then it's gonna be Bass tomorrow. If he is the miller it will leave town pretty screwed as everyone will be breaking down and accusing each other with no real idea who to lynch. 2. If you were to lynch Bass tonight, you'll find out if he's mafia or miller and if he does flip green, I know I'll be the #1 target for tomorrow. The way I see it, I'm gonna be dead before the game's finished and I feel 50% certainty on him is a lot better than what I would call a bad case against me. I haven't posted anything directly anti-town and a lot of the distrust people have in me comes from my lurkiness / unavailability. Please lynch Bass tonight and if he's not mafia, I'll know I'll be taking the fall tomorrow anyway - even if I was mafia the huge suspicion on me right now means I'm going to be lynched before the end and it would end the game. I suppose the same could be said for Bass but he's the one who's confirmed to be 50/50 mafia/miller, not me. | ||
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It certainly isn't as good as the at least 50% we've got against Bass. | ||
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Also, the wrap up post after the lynching was gold. I celebrated with Guinness? Yes. | ||
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