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On July 08 2012 20:43 BassInSpace wrote:
Release, you really think Hapa would bus Hopeless at the very start of the game? I understand a bus on day 2 or day 3, but bussing at the very start when it's 3 v 10 and an open set up (town favoured) seems sub-optimal. Besides, I doubt Hopeless would agree to something like this. As much as mafia is meant to be a team game, I don't think Hopeless (or at least I wouldn't) would want to get bussed just for a team victory. He wouldn't be able to play for the rest of the game and would just be sitting on the sidelines. Btw Hapa and JieXian, he posted his little breadcrum before it was revealed Khorrus was the godfather. Even if the godfather is dead, his case doesn't become invalid just because he thought Hapa was the godfather. I just disagree with his case for reasons stated above.
Well Bass, if I was playing mafia, I wouldn't mind being bussed if it meant a win - I understand you don't get to analyze and post as much but a win is a win regardless. Maybe it is just brilliant strategy as everyone's convinced on Hapa's pro-town status?
If it did turn out Hapa was mafia it would be hilarious, because I can't see anyone wanting to lynch him the rest of the game. Fairly unlikely, but still possible.
I'm wondering what happens if its decided to lynch Zen/Release/me and we all flip green. I'm fairly sure the mafia would be sitting happy and in great shape for actually winning with the odds against (s)he...
Anyway I provided some defense earlier showing some pro-townie stuff I've said and some people have basically ignored it. Please read and comment appropriately.
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I will work on some reads I have and let you know at some point later Lazer. Hold me to that.
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On July 08 2012 21:26 BassInSpace wrote:
That doesn't count. Yes, it's an analysis. But let's have a closer look at the bolded sections. You have the benefit of hindsight now in saying that you were right about Hopeless. At the time of making that post, you weren't sure about anything. You didn't even commit to anything. If Hopeless had flipped green, you could just argue and say "oh, look I was right, he really WAS just testing the waters".
Fair enough I'll accept that as a fair point - I wasn't exactly decisive because it was so early on. I'm just saying I don't think I would be calling out hopeless so early on in D1, in that post I am quite indecisive because I honestly didn't know what to think about some people. Back then I did say that the case against Release wasn't strong and that I didn't know what to think about TMG, with most criticism on hopeless, not scummy behaviour in my opinion.
If I was mafia, I'd say I'm playing terribly. I had been playing quite lazily at points which I'll admit, which I don't think a mafia player in this position would be so stupid to do.
I'm gonna give my list of reads here, and I'll provide reasoning below this post where I feel it hasn't already been discussed elsewhere:
1 Evulrabbitz ---- Obviously pro-town
4 The_Zen_Man --- Not got a good feeling lately, but I'll post justification afterwards
5 Lazermonkey --- I've had him as pro town for a long time. Before D1 votes happened, I had him down as pro-town and because I missed the arguments people were having in between I still feel that post lynching he's town.
6 Release ---- Release I also had put down as pro-town but recently I'm not so sure. If he was to be lynched
7 YourHarry ---- Also have him down as pro-town. But does seem very lazy to suggest random lynchings. Still got lots of time to decide what todo regarding him.
9 Mackin === I am vanilla townie, and I don't see anything particularly scummy about my play so far.
10 Hapahauli ---- Have him down as pro pro townie, but as I said before, we should be careful after the next couple of lynchings if he is alive and there is still the mafia player. He provided valuable information in catching hopeless, but there's always that chance that it was a really smart mafia plan.
11 JingleHell ----- Definately pro-town in my opinion, no one counter-claimed Evul's DT which is good news.
12 BassInSpace ----- Valid points against me, but could be playing smart mafia trying to lynch the player with some weaknesses in play (aka me). If I get lynched please be careful of him as I'm undecided of why he's pushing me so hard. I really have nothing to hide so if I'm continually pushed I will be suspicious.
13 JieXian ----- Also pro townie. Claimed tracker with no opposition which is nice.
This leaves 3 people in real contention for scum in my opinion. Zen, Bass, and the mastermind that could be: Hapa (but he most definately is my least suspected. I am a vanilla and that's it. Honestly can see why I'm not water tight but as long as Evul/Lazer/Jingle/Jie stay alive I think we win. Thats obviously subject to change depending on how people talk later on. If you do lynch me tonight, Bass is my top suspect. If not, and we don't get the mafia player, I know I'm not getting murdered because some people are pretent intent on pointing the FoS at me.
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On July 08 2012 22:12 Evulrabbitz wrote:
About Zen_Man asking if 3styla will replace Khorrus. That is totally innocent. In one of Khorrus first posts he says he needs replacement and completely random at like page 13 or so 3styla posts "/in". Zen_Man then asks if that was the replacement.
I'm gonna agree with Evul on this point and sort of move away from suspicion of Zen. If Zen was scum and was worried there was no godfather then wouldn't he contact mods through PMs so as to not ruin the game? I don't think that's a good point from which to accuse him on, so for now, my suspicions are on Bass.
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so as to not ruin the game** by letting everyone know he was worried about Khorrus being gone**
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On July 08 2012 22:36 Mackin wrote:
I'm gonna agree with Evul on this point and sort of move away from suspicion of Zen. If Zen was scum and was worried there was no godfather then wouldn't he contact mods through PMs so as to not ruin the game? I don't think that's a good point from which to accuse him on, so for now, my suspicions are on Bass.
Just another point to add here:
I know I had put Zen in my suspicions in my read of everyone just above and then I switched quickly, but I hadn't really thought of the above point until Evul brought the post up again.
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@Bass cool, I would just like to point out that I thought the main people were/are suspicious of me is because of my indecisiveness, and that's why I promised Lazer a list of reads which I provided above.
If there is anything else anyone would like me to clearly point out to clear anything up - ask away 
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Who are we suspecting at the minute then?
Is it me, release, hapa and most likely Xen?
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On July 09 2012 06:28 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2012 06:17 Mackin wrote:
Who are we suspecting at the minute then?
Is it me, release, hapa and most likely Xen? I want to kill either Zen or Release atm. Preferably Zen. I'm okay with lynching you if we can't lynch neither Zen or Release. I'm certainly not lynching Hapa. Not today.
Good. The odds of Hapa being mafia are very low, and I'd only recommend it a day or two down the line. I have a feeling I'm gonna get lynched today or tomorrow but I don't mind because the odds are in our favor anyway.
I'm not the guy you're looking for, but Zen has been very very quiet as you've said.....
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So you want reads on you harry and zen?
It will be done. Give me some time. One thing though - Zen hasn't posted in a good while so my read on him will be not as good.
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Ok Release, here's my reads you asked for.
Release:
What can I say here? There's nothing in particular in his last couple of pages of filter that gives any vibes of scum? Or am I missing something. Did Hapa in fact say Jingle was confirmed townie before Evul posted his claim? I don't remember that and I'll check after this analysis you asked for Release.
Harry:
+ Show Spoiler +On July 08 2012 18:50 YourHarry wrote:Anyways town victory is almost a certainty. Even if we randomized all of our actions, as long as we lynch from unconfirmed list, we should cruise to victory. According to my calculations, something like 3% chance of losing. Additional strategy. Both detective and tracker should publicize who they will target. They should pick two different players. The medic can randomly protect tracker or detective, but if either detective or tracker makes it known that he will target the medic, do not protect that person (for example, detective plans to target A and tracker plans to target B, and if A turns out to be the medic, medic should protect the tracker who's targeting someone other than medic). Guidelines on day 3: Tracker and detective should immediately report. The perfect scenario is if any power role receives "innocent" or "no visit". As long as we have one additional confirmed townie, we are guaranteed a 100% victory. If detective is alive and he received "guilty" on player X, we should lynch X regardless. If detective is dead and tracker targeted the player Y who "visited Z", we should kill Y as long as Z got lynched at night. Again, Y cannot be the medic here because nurse should have protected the detective if tracker publicized his plan to target the medic (And yes, tracker is more powerful than detective at this time). I really want to play through this game, but I feel the responsibility to volunteer to lynch myself. I am a vanilla townie and I do not want to risk having to force the medic to claim. Good job Hapah, if you are town If not, you lose Good game everyone and good luck!! ##Vote YourHarry
Wait, what?
Just when Release asked me to look at Harry, I look more closely at this (marked in red).
He posts "almost certainty" and goes on to provide clear analysis on how the game should/can progress. But what's wrong with that Mackin? --- Reasoning below:
First off, I don't like how he says almost certainly, could be trying to lure us into false sense of security, all the while knowing there is that chance of getting away with it. But there is always the chance that the mafia player will get the correct lynch and then things roll more and more into their favor that he could be that mafia working his magic. He posts good analysis like that of a townie, but he could be scum trying to point out the odds for us so we think its won. I'm certainly not saying its 100% but voting for yourself seems strange and the attention was took off him when someone told him to be quiet and no need for the noble sacrifice blah blah blah. There is another post he done with good analysis but it could be a cover up of "almost certainty win" when he's planning to bluff his way as far in as possible.
ZenMan
I'm not liking how quiet Zen's gotten. If he is mafia, and we lynch him it's just gonna have been too easy. Maybe Mafia has given up, but not given up. Anyway for how little he has posted I'm thinking he could be mafia just gave up...
For now, I'm gonna:
##vote ZenMan
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Ok, I'm off to bed. Should have went hours ago I've an important presentation tomorrow. Damn I'm dumb. I'll check back in afterwards
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One final thing @Hapa "We only have has lurkiness to go on"
Yeah but it could be the lurkiness of a mafia not giving a shit. Wanting to see how far he can get with as little effort possible due to the odds stacked against him. Also someone said scummy voting patterns that another thing I'll have to check out.
Good night all!
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Change the above to:
Also some people including you said scummy voting patterns*** damn I'm tired
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Is there much left to talk about? Or are we just waiting closer to lynch time?
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probably should put this in: ** Change the above to:
##unvote
Vote Release
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Lol Harry. I just noticed that I haven't got the ## where I tried to vote the second time - so yes technically unvoted... see I had forgot to unvote before and meant to just append to add unvote... so I'll fix it just to make sure -.-
##unvote
##Vote Release
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I was sure I had posted during the night? Damnit if I haven't.
Anyway I was suspicious of Bass already as multiple times he's been hinting to lynch me.
He'll be getting my vote anyways.
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I have sort of come to terms with the fact that my bad play would come to haunt me now. I know I'm going to be lynched but I will say I never liked how much Bass pushed me despite the fact I have never said or done anything I find to be particularly scummy.
I don't see much point in arguing my case, as from my lurkiness I do not see anyone being particularly convinced that I'm not mafia, so my defense would be in trying to push a better case against Bass, who I think is a better case (Looking at Evul's analysis of him which I thought was pretty good). Either way, if you do decide to lynch me and see that I'm VT at least you'll know Bass to be the prime suspect and who I believe to be the scum.
For some reason I have a sneaking suspicion that I might be the miller - I'm not sure why I think this but hopefully I am and when I'm lynched (I think it's too late to convince otherwise) Bass will be the clear option for lynching and it will be townie win.
Ima end with this vote but I don't expect much to be able to convince anyone else:
##Vote BassInSpace
PS. It will be easy for others to say I'm not making a strong defense which is bad but many of those still in the game have blue roles or were confirmed townie by those same blues so they don't have to do anything to prove their innocence. I think it's a lot easier playing blue and there's no real post I can see to convict anyone else at this point. I'll try looking for some dirt later but leaving it here for now.
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EPT
