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On July 05 2012 21:06 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2012 20:57 HomerunBat wrote:
I don't want to close my mind to any possibility, but I think the simplest explanation in this case is true. You, Cephiro, and dedede are all 3 town.
Some people don't agree that you are town, but I really think you are. If you are scum, then good job screwing with my head.
Cephiro, I linked Risen's past games in an earlier post of mine. I'd like you to take a look. TL mafia LI and LIII. You're probably right. I think the grush lynch will tell us a lot. Interesting that igrok wants to push me in and kill me, though. He'd be killing himself in the process. Means he REALLY thinks I'm scum.
I noted I'd be killing myself. But it's ok since the game is over as long as town doesn't go full derp mode
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Vatican City State155 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [igroks long post] +On July 05 2012 20:55 iGrok wrote:
The Reasoning behind everything
When I got my role, I decided to play like Palmar. I would lead the town Day1, be balls-to-the-wall aggressive, and force scum into slipping that way. I don't really play this style ever, but I wanted to try it out.
To start off, Town needed some information to work with. Not a full massclaim, but something to keep D1 from being a random lynch. That's why I asked everyone to claim if they got their first choice. If we learned anything by doing this, the rest of the town roles (kirbys, yoshis, Ness, DK). As it turned out, this confirmed Saturn and Cephiro to be samuses, not because Grush claimed not-first pick, but because they confirmed it. This also means that grush was telling the truth, which as scum he shouldn't want to in that situation. dedede's claim was really unexpected but I like it, as long as there was Town KP they'd draw the shot before a busdriver.
Ceph and Saturn don't have to be one scum, but it was very likely. So I picked one of them to carry. Gut feeling said Saturn was scum, so I carried him
Then we needed a way to deal with items and locations. By making one person each night pick, I'd be able to learn their motives, and by going first I would see who tried to do anti-town things instead. The first list was literally running down the order. Then I decided to change things up a bit. I pulled out Risen and sat out Tali. Risen had posted a total of 1 times, so I sat him out. And I felt like Tali was sheeping me a little because his reads were similar, so I sat him as well. Then Risen exploded, and that fight was... revealing. At the time, to me he felt like a dumb townie more than scum, but he got a Grey box (I use Green, Red, and Gray shades to mark people - Gray means somethings not right but I don't get a strong scum vibe)
Unfortunately, I derped on my own location, but this was almost ok because it generated a fight that revealed something about Saturn. Saturn hates me and plans on shooting me, yet doesn't try to lynch me. This is a huge red flag, and solidified my scum read on him.
I still felt that one of Ceph and Saturn were scum. So, rather than lynch into them, I figured that we could let scum tell us. I wanted to wait on my reads until the next day to see who they shot, and then go after the other as scum. There was a small chance that neither was, but I'm basically playing a game of probabilities.
I wanted something to work with on each player. That's why I suggested lynching lurkers. I already had reads on the non-lurkers, but I needed something to work with on Grush and Tali to find the remaining scum. And it seemed to work pretty well, as voting for them got them typing and lynching grush gave us something to work with.
Imagine if we hadn't found out grush was a Falcon. You think he would have claimed the shot? With his activity record? I don't think so.
Honestly, what happened last night is obvious. Scum1 and Scum2 (grush) shot cephiro as a town kp that most people agreed was town. Thankfully, dedede bussed ceph out of the way, and Risen got shot instead. Unfortunately, this means I'm also down to 1/2 kp damage.
So the remaining question is who is the last scum? The answer is not quite that simple. Its either Risen or Mr.Saturn. The fact that Saturn said he would shoot me but didn't try to lynch me. Yeah, he voted for me but there was 0 pressure behind it. Saturn's behavior is incredibly scummy. And yet, he isn't who we should lynch or push. Assuming that all scum are included in the set of [grush, Risen, Saturn], town has this game won by tomorrow.
We push Risen. This kills him. It will also kill me, but I'm ok with that as long as town doesn't derp. Odds are he flips scum, but Regardless of Risn's Flip, we lynch grush, who we know is scum. This kills grush. So now, 2/3 scum candidates are gone. Finally, if Risen wasn't scum, Ceph can shoot Saturn at night, and lynch him the next day (or somehow do .5 damage to him). This is how you win and cover all your bases.
Again, sorry this is late, I crashed after the 4th of July party last night.
##Push: Risen
##Vote: Grush
bro this is kind of believable, i'll have to ask hiro what he thinks about it though.
when you say that we wanted to shoot you but not lynch you I'm not sure whether you're referring to:
(A) hiro when he was on tilt for w/e reason after you picked us up, who was basically like "argh fuck this shit argh i want igrok to die but i'm too mad to try and persuade anyone that i'm right"
(B) me saying we should kill you with vig hits so the busdriver could protect us. I now know that this would not work since bus drivers don't protect from donkey kongs but whatever there was a good reason there why shots would have been better than lynches.
Anyway, I still think Talismania might be scum. However I'm fine with pushing risen (I'll have to see what hiro thinks before we change our actions) since he might be scum (although I don't think he is, i still think his explosion at the start seemed townish) and since I still think you might be scum who is only just now trying the "bwahaha, I planned it all along I was playing scummy on purpose to see how people react" gambit.
Why do you think risen is more likely scum than talismania?
Also I get that your whole thing up there is based on your reads of peoples' reactions to your scummyness but it's worth pointing out that you don't tell us why you have changed your mind to think risen is scum now rather than derping town, and you also haven't said anything about me and hiro except "we wanted you to die but didn't push your lynch enough".
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Cephiro- yea he actually does. he looks scummy no matter his alignment. Maybe this should have been a sign to me that my read from the meta, whatever it was, shouldn't carry a lot of weight.
iGrok's post was pretty rockstar. I especially like the aftermath of Risen knee-jerking at the speed of light.
I also like that he is willing to die to go after his read.
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ugh it makes no sense. Igrok can't be scum. I'm not seeing what he's getting here. Igroks post and complete ignoring of a potential flaw in his argument screams scum. but he knows killing me kills him, which doesn't scream scum. Sigh...
igrok stop fuckin trolling me and answer why my post doesn't apply
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Yup, fuck this. I'm in san francisco and I refuse to carry you derps. Gg cephiro/dedede/grush/tali
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Sending in my final actions. Carrying Cephiro and igrok if you're mafia who just saved himself by simultaneously convincing town I'm scum and convincing me you're town I'll nominate you over myself for top play 2012. Godspeed town.
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On July 05 2012 21:13 Risen wrote:
Yup, fuck this. I'm in san francisco and I refuse to carry you derps. Gg cephiro/dedede/grush/tali
I guess since a smilie meant I'm scum, this defeatist attitude means you're a busted scum that gave up on all hope?
Nice try, but not good enough.
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Risen, to clarify, I'm not changing my mind on you. I still think you're town.
I realized my last few comments put that in doubt.
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EBWOP: also, ## push cephiro. Lynch grush. If he flips scum lynch tali, if he doesn't go after cephiro/dedede. I don't think we can lose if you guys follow that.
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@Saturn
At first I did think risen was just extremely derp town. He was playing too dumb to be scum. But then, look at his votes.
7:57 - iGrok
9:38 - HRB
5:47 - tali
6:29 - grush
6:59 - tali
This last minute switch is really important, because he was trying to save grush from a lynch, but missed a vote.
Risen tried to save grush from a lynch wit ha last minute switch.
What does that usually mean.
And even more, not 30 minutes later he says that his scum reads are Tali/grush
On July 04 2012 07:29 Risen wrote:
I think it's safe to assume that scum was on both sides. Tali/grush scum team imo
And then his next post:
On July 04 2012 07:39 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 07:38 iGrok wrote:
Ok, got the game mostly figured out. One more relationship I need to prod. Looking forward to the night actions. I think you're wrong about me if you take anything from near voting time into account. I'm not talking alignment here.
Come on.
As for Tali, he's not super useful. But his spreadsheet tracking reads is really nice, because it lets us see who doesn't follow up their reads with pressure. Scum absolutely hate that. But even more, he isn't scum becasue [grush, risen, Saturn]P2 are.
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I never put this in the actual thread, so that everyone knows what I'm doing:
##push Risen
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On July 05 2012 20:10 Risen wrote:
Also, I saw earlier someone questioning my vote swap, so here's a counter question. Why are you asking?
My vote swap literally meant nothing. It didn't affect the game at all. Asking that question and trying to cast doubt on me is scummy as shit. The answer is bci wanted tali lynched, though. Seems fairly obvious to me. I wasn't comfortable with Cephiro's late vote on grush one bit.
"My vote swap literally meant nothing. It didn't affect the game at all."
Mafia Quote of the Year?
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On July 05 2012 21:27 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2012 20:10 Risen wrote:
Also, I saw earlier someone questioning my vote swap, so here's a counter question. Why are you asking?
My vote swap literally meant nothing. It didn't affect the game at all. Asking that question and trying to cast doubt on me is scummy as shit. The answer is bci wanted tali lynched, though. Seems fairly obvious to me. I wasn't comfortable with Cephiro's late vote on grush one bit. "My vote swap literally meant nothing. It didn't affect the game at all." Mafia Quote of the Year?
I know rite?
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Igrok I clearly meant you shouldn't consider me apikachu like others were thinking. Cephiro is literally jerking himself off right now on you igrok.
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I think pushing Risen is going to result in two dead townies.
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On July 05 2012 21:29 HomerunBat wrote:
I think pushing Risen is going to result in two dead townies.
So who is scum if Risen & grush aren't? Grush is obviously up for lynch, and he should be lynched to death today.
Who would you suggest for Zebes push then? Tali, me, Saturn, dedede?
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On July 05 2012 21:29 HomerunBat wrote:
I think pushing Risen is going to result in two dead townies.
I'm willing to take that risk. Town will still have a 4-2 advantage.
IF Risen is scum, here's what we end up with:
Town:
Cephiro
kingdedede
talismania
HRB
Scum:
Grush
Saturn
As long as the town doesn't go full derp (never go full derp), that is an easily winnable situation.
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EBWOP:
IF Risen ISN'T scum
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I 100% agree on the grush lynch.
In light of iGrok's post, I'd like to push Tali or Mr. Saturn. I think Mr. Saturn is more likely to be scum #2.
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Meanwhile we have everyone and their mother disregarding a possible cephiro/dedede team. Bend over and take it boys.
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EPT
