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On July 04 2012 03:55 AmericanUmlaut wrote:I'm feeling very nervous about this lynch. I still stand by my read of Intact, but Bob's most recent post is also very suspect to me. His case on Intact refers repeatedly to Intact's claims of lack of experience as being scummy, but Bob's own post is phrased in two places so as to disarm the reader by making passive reference to his inexperience: Show nested quote +Okay then, lets get started. Intacts explanations were, Poor play which is something that we all agreed wasn't something you really need to point out, and it is a tad bit scummy as was said to me. Show nested quote +Then he pulls out the bad play card again, something I have been told isn't any good. The post overall feels like it is less Bob's real thoughts on Intact's play than an attempt to justify his vote without appearing suspicious. My reading of Bob slightly scummier than before after the post. The question, though, is whether -- in the case Bob is a PBU -- the choice to vote on Intact is an attempt to build momentum for a mislynch or an attempt to bus a scumbuddy that he figures isn't long for this world in any case. I'm keeping my vote on Intact at this point. I'd love to hear others' thoughts on the situation, and I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but I still think Intact is the scummiest read. Especially considering he promised reads for us to build on "soon", five hours ago. I think he sees sciberbia's cases on Bob and Blind-Rawr as a chance for him to dodge a banhammer, and he's laying low hoping that we get distracted discussing them and forget about him.
I agree it's not a very strong case, but that reads like hes a newbie and rationalizing his case based on the fact the he's been told that doing those things are scummy. It's a speaking from experience thing to me. The quality of his posts is what concerns me.
He acknowledges that its not exactly finished, but hes short on time. This is kind of true, but 4 of us had yet to vote at all, meaning we would have to come back to the thread at some point or get modkilled. I can see him being a little flustered about being suspicious and wanted to demonstrate quickly that he's an active townie. I'm willing to see if he can give us some more quality in his posts before I am ready to accuse him of being scum. If his post quality degrades, I would view his read of Intact as a (bus/mislynch depending on his flip).
@Umlaut's nervousness/Bob's twitchyness: That's the game. People are going to look scummy. To avoid that, post your reads as thoroughly as you can and push the scummiest read you have. I'm voting for my scummiest read. It looks like you're both doing the same. I can't ask much more of you than that. After the lynch, keep posting reads and try to provoke the scum into slip-ups.
@Myles: I noticed that too, its in my case on BLiND-RawR. The bandwagon was why I have Fencar, Intact and Blindy on my scum radar in the first place. The lurking and poor posts have further supported my reads on them.
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By my count, sciberbia has hammered Intact, just over an hour remaining. (See marv, I can spell his name just fine.)
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Epic Modkillings: T-5 Minutes and counting.
Intact you should probably throw a vote...
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Don't count your chickens Bob. Depending on Fencar's flip He's dead now right?
We may have better people to lynch.
gg Intact. Agree with Umlaut: Everyone else, post your goddamn reads if you say you will so this stops happening. Broken promises make you look like scum. Really sloppy play.
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Also, I'm at work so I won't be able to delve into anything for about 5 hours.
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On July 04 2012 12:11 BobTheLob wrote: I've more or less given up, I dug myself a hole. I realize that I look scummy as hell and there is very little I can do to convince you otherwise because if I suddenly got a whole bunch of shit put together and did some epic reads it would just be me doing damage control and still look scummy. Now IMO Prome is scum and that's who I'll be voting tomorrow if we don't get anything better. Also I realize that I'm dead sooooooo... Yeah FML.
You know, I did the same thing but instead of giving up, I started posting solid reads and getting involved. As a result, I still look scummy, but not quite as scummy as the other players. Either I'm a goddamn genius or it just took me a little while to get my townie feet under myself. I'm letting the cases I present and my activity demonstrate my towniness, not "HEY GAIZ IM A TOWNIE FOR SURE!11"
If you can get a "whole bunch of shit put together" thats not damage control. Damage control is what Intact did, only defending his posts and the case against himself which looks scummy. Contributing to town is...well, contributing. It reflects well on you and while you could be seen as shifting suspicion, if your read is that good, we'll notice and actually think before we autolynch the next scummiest player at any given point in time. Post it before someone else gets the chance so you don't look like you're bandwagoning.
Keirathi pretty much gets a pass until the nk since he just got here, though I really would like to see some reads before such a time. I'm concerned that there just isn't much to go on without stretching reads pretty thin on players who up till now have seemed like town. Hopefully, Keirathi is town and doesn't have any bias regarding our reads since he's starting with all the information we currently have instead of piecing together as we go along.
I'm going to wait to post my reads until tomorrow, give our newest replacement a chance to catch up and give us another fresh perspective. I should be able to post before the deadline, I usually get a break at work that I can write up my reads before noon.
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On July 04 2012 06:28 sciberbia wrote: @keirathi welcome! Sorry, but you inherit suspicions from the actions of BLind-Rawr. If you are town, I ask that you make an effort to post a lot over the next few days and convince me of your innocence.
Am I allowed to use the words/actions of mods as evidence towards determining players' roles?
@ghost gratz on your 1000th post. I'm impressed that you remembered to change the number after copy+pasting your 500th :p
Q never got answered. Either way, the information skews the game no matter what so its not really a very credible source of evidence in my opinion.
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Unfortunately our strongest reads have either flipped town or have been replaced, so its hard to stick to the case on Fencar/Miltonkram, or to build a solid case on BLiND-RawR/Keirathi. Fencar was decisively anti-town, but perhaps not scum. I know JH and others were adamantly against lynching when I wasn't certain of scum, but if I can't confidently identify scum, I'd rather lynch anti-town behavior on the chance that I get scum, which is what I view Fencar's play as. If my reasons or reads are not good enough, I'm trusting the rest of town to point out the scummier player to me when I don't see it.
The most suspicious person I've identified based on the way the game has progressed is AmericanUmlaut. While he's been active, he hasn't posted very detailed reads. He also backed the Intact case, essentially copying mine and expanding on it, but never actually acknowledged that I'd made a case. In addition, the way his "Lurker PBU" Post went, he completely brushed off the actual lurkers in favor of the case he really wanted to discuss.
He was also involved in both mislynches, but switched his vote Day1 after the bandwagon had started to roll. His vote was against me, but he has never really gone into any detail about his read on me, just piggy backing JH's case from Day1.
This suspicion hasn't been addressed by him, but he's carried it through at the end of his Intact case, which as I've pointed out came AFTER mine: + Show Spoiler +On July 02 2012 20:53 AmericanUmlaut wrote:The lurking PBUThere are currently four posters whose activity levels are low enough that I'd characterize them as lurking: Intact, BobTheLob, Blind-Rawr and iamperfection all have less than a page of posts, which is very little considering the amount of discussion that went on prior to the game actually starting. There are three PBUs. If they are playing intelligently, they will have noticed from the beginning that this game has had a fairly large number of lurkers, and one of them will be chilling among them and doing their best to just scoot by. It's possible that two scum are lurking, but I would guess that the others are among the more active posters because having only a single active community member puts you in a bad position if that player gets lynched; the PBUs lose their ability to manipulate debate, and one of the previous lurkers trying to establish their voice afterward is obviously scummy play. I think that my logic for concluding that at least one of the four low-post players is a PBU is strategically sound. Ideally we would flush them out by getting the other three to start posting more analysis, but I think it's clear at this point that we're going to have to win this with a couple of low-content players amongst us, which means we need to figure out which of the lurkers is most likely our PBU. We have little to go on, but let's take a look at what's available: iamperfection: His posting day 1 was worthless. Since day 2 has begun, he's started to participate, albeit in a very low-key manner. I'd like to see more thought-out posts from him, but I'm leaning toward his being one of the good guys and just unsure of how to play as the game got going. BobTheLob: His posting day 1 was worthless. His posting day 2 is worthless. My read is entirely worthless, because he's not playing. In an environment where everyone was being super productive and he was just posting about how drunk he is, I'd say let Kwark pop him, but I feel like the odds are too good that he's actually just a really awful town player to take that risk. Blind-RawR: Also posting so little actual analysis that it's hard to make any kind of useful read. However, Hopeless1der's case against him is such a stretch that my conclusion is that it's almost certainly a clumsy attempt at provoking another mislynch and that Blind_RawR is thus probably town. Which leaves us with: Intact: Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 20:22 Intact wrote: I think I saw this type of play in a previous mafia game. Not sure which one though. There were 2 mafia who argued agressivly towards eachother early on. This reminds me of that occasion. This is basically Intact's first move of the game: A vague reference to how maybe JH and Anacletus might both be scum, but presented in such a way that it's easy to distance yourself from later on. I acknowledge that I responded with agreement that this could be a useful bit of analysis if one of them flipped red, but knowing that both were town makes this look like an attempt to get discussion moving toward a mislynch. Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 10:29 Intact wrote: I'm going to stand by my read as analectus being scum but I have also become very suspicious of promethelax. People may have been bandwagoning analectus but as soon as he got into lynching territory promethelax show up with a long thread pointing out someone else, thereby making some people switch vote. This causes divisions and tensions among the town which is exactly what the scum want. I lean more towards fencer just playing badly and promethelax trying to save his scum partner analectus. I really don't see anything suspicious about Promethelax's case against Fencer. I think I'm not alone when I say that he's around the top of the suspects list at the moment. What about Promethelax's analysis of Fencer's play seemed suspicious? This seems like an attempt to just sow dissent without any real logic behind it. And then comes this brilliant observation: Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 10:48 Intact wrote: In addition, should we lynch analectus and he turns put to be mafia, it would make it fairly easy to point out the other mafia. And if he turns out to be townie it would be very easy to confirm some townies. Anacletus was, in fact, one of the good guys. We banned him. By what logic are we now able to confirm some townies? This post is just stupid, and to me it stinks of someone who is playing with the full information that a PBU has, and hasn't thought through the logic of the limited information environment that we town players are in enough to fake logical conclusions that sound like they were made by a townie. Summary: Four players (25% of the game population) are posting at barely-there levels, which leads me to conclude that at least one PBU is almost certainly hiding among them. An analysis of the few posts that they have made leads me to conclude that Intact is by far the most suspicious among them. The scumteam I currently have in mind is Intact, hopeless1der and Fencer710. Of the three, I feel the most strongly about Intact and hopeless1der; I feel like Fencer could conceivable be really bad and having a panicky reaction to being suspected. If anyone could help me analyze the way those three have interacted to argue either in favor of or against my hypothesis, I'd really appreciate the help.
Regarding the bolded in the last paragraph of the quoted post above...serious conflicting ideas there considering I'd just posted a large case that unfortunately contributed to lunching a VT. He completely agreed with my case though, even if he never referenced it. Since then he still kind of keeps my scumminess on his backburner but never addresses the case against me, and it feels like hes waiting for someone to bring it back up so he can jump on it. I'm stuck in null-read (I hope) limbo and I feel like I'm an easy bandwagon target so I'm very suspicious of his play regarding the case on me.
Once Keirathi posted his detailed read of the thread so far, Umlaut felt it was necessary to piece-by-piece defend himself but has been pretty mute on the course of events otherwise. This isn't pro-town and sounds like he just wants to deflate Keirathi's contribution so that we end up with less credible information.
Then again, so did Promethelax, and I'm watching him a bit more closely now, but I don't feel Keirathi's read on him is as strong as he's made it out to be. In addition, Prom didn't really attack Keirathi's post, and felt like a much calmer, reasoned defense than the tone of AmericanUmlaut's.
FoS: AmericanUmlaut
There is still the issue of Fencar/Miltonkram's case to look at...I guess I'll wait until Milton has a chance to catch up? Or possibly what turns up after the NK. There isn't anything new to pursue on Fencar aside from drawing arbitrary conclusions on why he chose to give up and that is not worth it to me.
We're kind of forced to push that case based on what we had before Milton came in or else we lose a lot of our previous reads based on Fencar's behavior-related scumminess because Milton now has the opportunity to correct it even if he turns out to be scum.
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@Keirathi With respect to my brief paragraph about Prom, that was more of an afterthought that someone might have brought up as a flaw in my reasoning against Umlaut. It was my take on their tone in their response to you and less about the content of their respective defenses. Ultimately, I find AmericanUmlaut to be the scummier looking player, based on my reads and his hostile tone through his defense, and that was the main point I wanted to convey without looking like I'd just dismissed the fact that your strongest read was Promethelax.
wrt myself: The most basic thing that altered my posting was that I sought advice from the coaches after JH built a reasonable case on me during the whole mislynching for info ordeal.
Early on I wasn't especially serious because of all the joke posts going around, and that came back to bite a number of us in the ass, Anacletus first and foremost.
I then dug myself into a hole with my whole mislynch vs no lynch nonsense, and I doubt very much I'll ever get to full town cred because of my foolishness, but if I'd just rolled over and died on my stance it'd have looked even scummier imo. It initially started as errant policy discussion and I got way too caught up in my own opinion and kept pushing my own agenda while only kind of making reads in the process. After getting advice, I focused almost entirely on scumhunting like I was supposed to, posting with greater conviction and better quality, causing people, yourself included, to second guess my alignment. I could clearly see that I was looking very scummy and a drastic change was required if I had any chance of helping save town.
No problem about coming down on me, I've earned it. Hopefully this post helps alleviates some of your concerns about me.
Oh there's the NK. gg sciberbia.
By my count its 5 town, 3 scum remaining, meaning if we mislynch we lose unless we have blue roles to save us from scum or shoot scum. We would do well to keep that in mind as we proceed with the day's voting
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On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote:Okay, clearly Keirathi thinks I am scum and a reasonable and well thought out response doesn't change his mind. I am not going to bother to defend myself against this since Kier won't listen to reason. If he is going to force everyone to mislynch me I want to get as many of my reads and the reasons for them into the thread so that when I flip green you townies will have more to work with, assuming that a medic protects someone tonight! Come on medic no one will look down on you for batting .333. So, Keir, if you have anything that you want me to respond to ask me directly. If you just want to suggest that I am scum for no good reason I'm not going to bother to respond. We won't gain anything by me shitting up the thread with my defense so I'm going to give you solid reads instead, if you are town I hope you'll realize that I am too; if you aren't I don't really care what you think. If you really have read my filter so closely I would expect you to have realized that I am not red. So first: my scum reads. I am leaving Fencar out of this because he has been replaced but I still think he is probably scum and I hope that we all give his replacement a cold hard look. Blind-Rawr, now Keir, is scum. I never really thought that Blindy was was defiantly scum, or more accurately I never looked at him because there was nothing to look at. His filter is...ten posts long after the start of the game until the point where he was replaced. He never gave us a single read and he could have either been new at town or at scum. He seemed scummy by virtue of his lurking and his lack of reads but he was never my scummiest read and I never followed through on looking into him really. The thing is as soon as he was replaced we got an active player with grandiose reads covering everyone in the thread. He came in here and told us to ignore the scummy vibe everyone had on Blindy and to totally pay attention to his reads. His reads that put me on the top of a scum list. Now like the reast of you, barring scum and dt if we have one, I have a total of one mod-confirmed townie alive in this game. That townie is me and I feel like I have done a good job in that role to work for town and to find mafia, this is reflected in the town read that everyone had on me until Kierth came into the thread, until he showed up no one thought I was mafia and I don't believe that anyone does now. Every townie in this game has a town read on me because of my behaviour. Keir says it is because of how much I post. My filter is three pages long. Count 'em. You know who else has a three page filter? Statistically speaking you do. Myles is on three pages, so is Umlaut, and Hopeless is as well. JH has four pages and he died n1. Lurkers like Bob, Iamimperfection and even Anacletus have two page filters. So why does Kier attack me with this facitius reason? I can't think of any reason for town to distort the facts like this; I can think of a reason for scum to do it though, they want me dead. There has to be a reason that scum killed Sciberbia and not me since we were the most active and the guys who were most well thought of as green. I assume everyone else had a town read on Sciberbia since I did. The only reason I can think of is that I had more of a filter and therefore more things that could be called scummy by scum players or that Sciberbia had better scum reads than me. I wasn't sure that Blindy was scum but Sciberbia sure thought so, you can tell by the way he voted for him: Show nested quote +On July 03 2012 14:48 sciberbia wrote: Okay it is just about time for me to call it a day.
I quickly read through the filters of Hopeless1der and Fencar. On first read, Fencar actually looks townie to me. I would really not like to lynch him today, and I hope he is not modkilled.
I'm not so sure about Hopeless1der. He looks scummy for the first half of his filter, and then it's like he turns on a switch and starts posting some good analysis on Intact and others. I want to see more from him and don't think he's a good lynch today.
Who I think we should lynch today Fencar and Intact seem to be the popular targets.
My cursory opinion is that Fencar is town. Also, he is getting modkilled/replaced. I'd really not like to lynch him today.
I think Intact might be scum, but I'm not convinced. I think we have better targets, and I'd not like to lynch Intact today.
As I've said, both BobTheLob and BLinD-RawR look quite scummy to me. I'd be shocked if neither was scum and wouldn't be surprised if both are scum. I feel strongly that we should lynch one of these two today. I feel stronger about BLinD-Rawr.
My schedule I'm going to sleep now, and then I'll be at work from the time I get up through the deadline. So I can't do any more significant reading or posting until after the lynch. I assure you that I will be following the thread from work though. You can count on me changing my vote to the majority candidate before the deadline if that is what is needed to prevent a No-Lynch.
But for now, I'm feeling more confident about BLinD-Rawr than BobTheLob, so I will
##Vote BlinD-Rawr Keir's one big post is a re-hash of everything that has happened in thread. He calls it his notes and there are a few observations thrown in but it feels like a a huge post that screams “look at me! Look at me! I am totally contributing!” without actually contributing. I'll link the post and you can read it over for yourself, it is so big that I skimmed it this morning when I had to run to work but it actually doesn't add as much as something of that length should. In that long long post Kier calls Sciberbia 25% lilely to be scum. And when Sciberbia dies and flips town he says: Show nested quote +On July 05 2012 06:10 Keirathi wrote: gg sciberbia. You were my best town read! look at that attempt to gain towncred. Sciberbia was my best town read too but you'll notice that I acted on that before his death. Although I guess that is true based on what he said, 25% is the lowest chance of flipping scum he gives followed by two thirties and everyone else has a 50% chance or greater, talk about hedging your bets and leaving yourself an out. So I think that Sciberbia was right, BlinD-Rawr was scum and so is kier. My bet is that Hopeless1der is also scum. I have already made a case about him and here it is Show nested quote +On July 01 2012 09:33 Promethelax wrote:Between On June 29 2012 07:17 Hopeless1der wrote: Let's suppose many people neglect to post...if we can't get a decent case going, are we cool to lynch lurkers? Everyone on board? and On June 29 2012 07:40 Hopeless1der wrote:On June 29 2012 07:19 JingleHell wrote: Actually, if many people neglect to post, it's the worst time to lynch lurkers, so why would you suggest it, Myles? Mathematically, if 6 lurk, then, if we assume 100% of the scum are also amongst the lurkers, we're already at a coinflip to get a scum. Very true. At that point its useless to policy lurkers. Now is the time to get this crap out of the way though. I do think we need some kind of policy to follow since the game is majority Lynch. Let's figure out our options and get the scumhunt on. something happened. Something more than the passage of 23 minutes. Looking into the thread it seems that it was JH and his actually bad post that convinced Myles to change his mind. See a 50% chance of hitting scum on d1 is good. I would take that on any d1 since clearly leaving us to our own devices didn't work very well. Since all that happened to change Myles' mind in thread was that one poorly thought out post I wonder if there wasn't something outside the thread that was posted, maybe in scum qt? No proof but something I'm taking into account. He follows this with a lot of useless one-liners and non-committal attacks against both Fencer and Anacletus. After wading through the mess he has made of his posting I also found this: On June 30 2012 06:39 Hopeless1der wrote:On June 30 2012 06:17 Fencer710 wrote:Single words are fine, though. Damn lack of edit button increasing my post count artifically. It's like accidently opening no-gas in a matchup where you normally open gas because you forgot his race, then forced to all-in because you don't know how to open gasless FE. Argh...Thanks for derailing us hard ghost. It's time to get back to scumhunting now? and for future reference, the quoted post is usually seen as a complete waste of time and reason for suspicion. where he says things that sound townie but doesn't do anything with those things. The next post I want you to pay attention to is this one: On June 30 2012 12:45 Hopeless1der wrote:On June 30 2012 12:20 Fencer710 wrote: OK, guys. I have to go to bed. My closing thoughts in case I don't make the deadline tomorrow:
Remember, 7 people have to decide to lynch the same guy in order for there to be a lynch. It's me, Anacletus, or nothing. You can be meta all you want in your head, but it doesn't change what actually goes on in the thread. Remember to read and reread all the posts! I'll take you over Anacletus today. You're posting is extremely unproductive to me. It doesnt seem all that scummy, but its a massive hindrance when you don't provide anything for discussion, just constantly droning about how your new and guides are super cool. ##Vote: Fencer710 which brought my attention on to our hopeless friend. From this point on he knows he is being watched and his posts change slightly. After this point Wonder never hard defends himself, instead he stops posting one-liners and tries to look more active, it looks to me like a guy who knows he is under suspicsion and wants to change that. That is not a town trait. When one of us comes under suspicsion our goal should be to act in a pro-town way to hunt scum, instead 1der has posted in a pro 1der way and not attempted to hunt scum at all. So, if that hasn't onvinced you, and I'm not sure it should I would like to give you the crowning jewl in the hopeless1der is a hopeless scum player case. On July 01 2012 02:21 Hopeless1der wrote:The biggest scumtell I've had so far is the whole mislynch vs no lynch. To that I submit the following: WORST CASE SCENARIO No Lynch Day1 + Show Spoiler + Day1: 9 Town, 3 Scum (33.333% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch) No Lynch, Mafia hit on town Day2: 8 Town, 3 Scum (37.5% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch
(Mis)Lynch Day1 + Show Spoiler +Day1: 9 Town, 3 Scum (33.333% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch) Lynch Town, Mafia hit on town Day2: 7 Town, 3 Scum (42.8% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch) Conclusion: Mislynch Bad. No Lynch Worse. On July 01 2012 02:09 AmericanUmlaut wrote: SNIP My read on Anacletus isn't changed at this point, though; I still think he's got a good chance of flipping scum. I'm a bit concerned that there might be too many players who will be inactive between now and the lynch, in which case I'll be switching my vote back to Anacletus to prevent a no-lynch. WTF YOU ALREADY KNOW THIS WHY AM I DEFENDING MYSELF TO YOU?? Let's look at his conclusion: it is bad to have a no lynch because if we kill of a town statistics suggests our next random lynch will be more likely to hit scum. Remember before this game started I said I was sorry if I was dumber than two rocks making love? I now present you with one of the two rocks required. Hopeless is either scum or playing an anti-town game because he has no idea what he is doing. Since the rest of us newbs figured it out I would guess it is the former rather than the latter. On top of this he has continued to post in a scummy was and when I came under attack he soft defended me I think that he knows that I am green and knows that if I am lynched having defended me will look good. Once I flip green the town will probably lynch Kier (assuming we get our medic save at night, we may as well plan to succeed since planning for failure won't help us) and Keir has said that Hopeless is his next scummiest read after me. Hopeless has defended me. I believe that the scum plan is to get me mislynched in return for probably just straight winning and, if they don't win, losing one of their own and confirming a second as town in everyone's eyes. He also pushes Umlaut while Keir calls him town, it looks to me like scum setting up the perfect follow up mislynch after both Kier and I have flipped. It is my firm belief that Hopeless is scum. His play seemed stupid but it changed drastically, he says he got coaching but I bet it was from marvellosity and not xsksc or artanis[xp], note his familiar use of marvellosity's name here: Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 04:54 Hopeless1der wrote: By my count, sciberbia has hammered Intact, just over an hour remaining. (See marv, I can spell his name just fine.) I'd say that is from someone who has talked to 'marv' and not our coaches. Hopeless1der is scum along with Kier. Since we are in a situation where we will lose if we mislynch we lose (assuming there are no brilliant medic saves, which seem unlikely at this point) I want to talk about town reads too. It doesn't matter if scum know who we see as town, we all need to have each others' reads. Town only benefits from more information and I want to get as much of it out there as possible. The person I want to talk about is Myles, since I have made a case against him in the past as have JH and others, I think he is a possible mislynch target. Myles is, as far as I can tell, town. (look at me, spelling out that my opinions are my opinions, I wish I had more information that I could give you but I don't and I can't). So, as you know if you have read this thread, I have stated in the past that Bob is scummy. I don't think so anymore, and not just because he was celebrating Canada day with me. Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 04:04 BobTheLob wrote:On July 04 2012 03:59 AmericanUmlaut wrote: EBWOP: I should clarify what I mean when I say I'm very nervous about the lynch. Town play has not been good this game, which has left us with more scummy-looking players than there are actual scum. Assuming there's even one PBU in this game who knows how to play without looking like the second coming of GG.Nore, we're lynching into a population that includes way too many friendlies for comfort. Even making the best reads we can, we're taking a percentage gamble that I'm really not happy about. *Twitch* That was what I was saying before and I got bitched at for it.... Bob is actually right to bring this up, we jumped on him for the exact same thought process which was worded more poorly in his case. Bringing attention to this serves no purpose if he is scum. He wouldn't want to make us re-look at his mistakes. But he focuses on them to bring attention to another player. Admitting to his own mistakes and using them to make a point, albeit a simple one, is a townie behaviour. It is also his post Show nested quote +On July 04 2012 12:11 BobTheLob wrote: I've more or less given up, I dug myself a hole. I realize that I look scummy as hell and there is very little I can do to convince you otherwise because if I suddenly got a whole bunch of shit put together and did some epic reads it would just be me doing damage control and still look scummy. Now IMO Prome is scum and that's who I'll be voting tomorrow if we don't get anything better. Also I realize that I'm dead sooooooo... Yeah FML. onto which Keir bandwaggons. Though he totally fails to mention that he isn't posting something revolutionary. I think that if Kier is scum Bob is town and, since I am sure that Kier is scum I am also sure that Bob is town. Saying what Bob said above as scum would be dumb, I am one of the most active town players and have had 0 suspicion on me all game so why would he say this? Only if he were town who actually thought that I was scum, he is wrong but green as far as I can see. To some up this post for those that don't have the patience to wade through it: Kier=Scum Hopeless=Scum Bob=Town
Prom I'm sorry you still feel that I'm scum. I thought I'd really improved my posting since Jingle was NK'd. My soft defence of you was just a pre-emptive defence on my own logic in my read against AmericanUmlaut. Unfortunately for me, I'm leaving shortly for the night, so I'll try to get all my reads out on the table tomorrow.
Also for the response to marvellosity, he'd posted this shortly before that comment.
On July 04 2012 02:40 marvellosity wrote: Why does no-one ever spell sciberbia's name correctly? :< Sorry for having a sense of humor about it. Yes it was a no content post, but it was so close to the deadline and I didn't really have anything new to add to the discussions, just passing time until the lynch.
In the meantime, is it worth No-Lynching today? We get another day to look for scum and it buys time to get a better read on miltonkram and keirathi. It also gives our potential blue(s) another day to get information. Right now I'm inclined to believe its our best course of action as town is guaranteed to not lose for one more day. ##VOTE: No Lynch Townie remaining count on the front page should be 5 instead of 6.
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Okay so we all want our reads on the table. I'm going through each player's filter and getting a feel for them based on the game so far. This won't be incredibly detailed but if you see something you'd like me to specifically expand on I'll look into it further:
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Anacletus - Lynched
- Myles - Leaning towards town at present
- Myles has been keeping up it seems with just enough content to avoid too much suspicion. However, he hasn't really committed to any strong reads. His longest post is in defense of himself. Both times he's voted, it had the feel of "well the rest of town thinks its a good idea"
+ Show Spoiler +On July 01 2012 03:53 Myles wrote: OK, considering we have just over 3 hours left, I'm going to cast my vote for Anacletus. After barely contributing, then barely defending himself, he's pretty much disappeared completely. While not the most damning of evidence, it certainly seems scummy to me since a good way to draw attention from yourself is to lay low and let other people take heat - you know, out of sight out of mind.
Fencer is suspicious, but after looking through all his posts some more, seems more newbish than scum. I'm certainly not going to turn a blind eye, but I'll give him the BotD for now.
And despite other people not seeming to care, BobTheLob is quite suspicious to me. Lurker extraordinaire and his last post doesn't elicit much confidence imo.
##Vote Analectus On July 04 2012 04:41 Myles wrote: I'm going to pull the trigger and vote intact. He seems like the best choice given the information we have. As has been discussed, there's too many inconsistencies with the bandwagon, reads, and ability to post.
- He also hasn't posted a goddamn thing of merit since before Intact got lynched. Says he will "take a look tomorrow" (today). His excuse makes sense, but the timing is very unfortunate for us.
- His posts consistently identify suspicious behavior but lack the confidence to get a meaningful case going.
- His lack of conviction and detailed contributions make him suspicious to me, but he's never had to actively pursue a case on someone because we've had people doing it for us and never really needed his input to push a case. We've also not had any luck in finding scum, so I can't say if his posting would change if we were to start a case on legitimate scum. For now, he appears townie that's just keeping up with the thread and supporting the cases he thinks are of merit.
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NrGmonk > sciberbia - NK'd
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JingleHell - NK'd
- AmericanÜmlaut - Scum
I've posted my reads on Umlaut already - Scum
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Intact - Lynched
- BobTheLob - Leaning Town
- Bob's been pretty lurky, and when called out on it, he made an "everyone could be scum post". Looks like desperate townie to me, just trying to contribute something, anything he can. Scum, I feel, would have made more of an effort to not look wishy-washy.
- The deflated behavior going into today feels consistent with his posting of being a newbie and getting ragged on throughout the game
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BLinD-RawR > Keirathi - Probably Scum
- I posted a read on BLiND-RawR before he was replaced. I was not impressed with his response to the case I presented on him and it reinforced my idea that he was scum
- Keirathi's method of taking notes was fine to start with, as he gets to build his own reads from scratch, but he insists that his goal is get other people talking and really only give us a scum number. He has a list of scummy behavior, which he admits is exactly what it is, but he hasn't gone back to make connections that are absolutely crucial at this stage to pinpoint the scum. Anyone could be scum as far as his list is concerned.
- Promethelax was far and away his scummiest read, sciberbia as his towniest read was shot. There is definately a benefit to playing things out this way, as you potentialy get huge town cred and get to paint a massive target on Promethelax. One of them is almost certainly scum. I think Promethelax is our strongest town read remaining, and by planting the seed of doubt going into MYLO, the scum only need to pull one of the town over to their way of thinking to keep themselves alive (Either by mislynch tomorrow or no-lynch today).
- iamperfection - Leaning towards Scum
- Kind of lurky, similar to Myles in terms of amount of content and commitment to his reads. However, did start a case against bobthelob. Bob never seemed like he was at risk of getting into hot water, so kind of a throwaway vote.
- Hasn't contributed much to discussing the reasoning behind NK's or building cases in general.
- Willing to spend time discussing merits of No-Lynch, but has lurked otherwise. - Suspicious
- Comparing with Myles I get a very similar read, but perfection has less posts with almost as much content. This feels like he's spending a lot more time constructing his posts, which is a scum quality to me
- Promethelax - Still Town
- Strong posts, plenty of reads on all suspicious behavior. Explains his actions and shows minimal contradictions.
- Any "contradictory" behavior seems related to players that were replaced
- He's actively tried pushing cases, but reconsiders when new evidence or scummier behavior becomes apparent. Doesn't tunnel into someone.
- Responds to most cases and gives his input, fleshing out the cases further and adding his own conclusions.
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Fencer710 > Miltonkram - NULL
- I don't know...I really don't =\
- If Milton continues to lurk, he's scum in my book. Lurking replacement is completely unacceptable
- Hopeless1der
- I'm town. What else am I supposed to tell you?
TL;DR: Umlaut, Keirathi, Perfection
In response to Perfection: The No-Lynch itself didn't help scum, it was the long drawn out debate about it. My basic reasoning in No-Lynch is we're guaranteed at least one more day. If we mislynch tonight, we can lose. I feel the greater risk is in trying to lynch scum today. The flip from the NK will color our reads and hopefully make it easier to target scum when we absolutely must lynch or lose the game. Regardless, let's not discuss it further until we're closer to the deadline. We need to make all our reads so that we're as prepared as we can be for the next Day's voting as well.
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It's looking like I might be lynched so I'm claiming Vanilla Townie Some of my scummy behavior is from throwaway posts early. Whether anyone believes me or not, well I tried:
On June 29 2012 07:40 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 07:19 JingleHell wrote: Actually, if many people neglect to post, it's the worst time to lynch lurkers, so why would you suggest it, Myles? Mathematically, if 6 lurk, then, if we assume 100% of the scum are also amongst the lurkers, we're already at a coinflip to get a scum. Very true. At that point its useless to policy lurkers. Now is the time to get this crap out of the way though. I do think we need some kind of policy to follow since the game is majority Lynch. Let's figure out our options and get the scumhunt on.
On June 29 2012 07:56 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 07:32 JingleHell wrote: And just in case people decide to show up, and start trying to take my lack of posts as suspicious, I'll be leaving in a bit for TKD. Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 07:42 JingleHell wrote: Well, Myles, if you have a suggestion for flushing the scum with people not talking until we have something to go on, feel free to elaborate on that plan. Otherwise, I'm going to stick with the established method of getting people talking enough that we either get something to work with, or at least get enough people active to be physically capable of lynching anybody. Aha! That's what we're looking for you lieing... Or maybe 10 minutes counts as a bit... Whatevs, Not a big deal. I do probably need to read better though. Everyone else needs to hurry up and get in here, im freaking out man.
Easily done as scum to fall back on later so I don't expect this to sway anyone significantly, but consider the two posts I quoted. They're both terrible with practically no contributions, except for the role I breadcrumbed.
Since I have to vote for someone, I'm voting for AmericanUmlaut as my strongest read, and he currently has no votes. I'd prefer the no-lynch in this situation, but I cant vote No Lynch so...
##Vote: AmericanUmlaut
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AU, you just created a WIFOM situation that could suggest that you actually are scum and just bought yourself some town cred. I'm hoping there's a DT that's checked me already as it seems like the only way we're going to win. Prom and Umlaut have both been quite vocal about their desire to lynch me. I really hope this hasn't already happened and I'm the miller.
Prom has not yet had a chance to respond to my claim, and I'm interested to see his take on it.
Regardless, if we have an information role (DT/Tracker/Watcher), I'd like you to post anything you have as close to the deadline as possible in case you are NK'd. Medics cant really do anything other than go for the miracle save. I could care less if I was shot, as it would prove I was town and lend some more credence to my read on Umlaut (Yay more Wine). Tomorrow, I think we should mass claim because its a Lynch (correctly) or lose situation. There may be an exception for a Vigilante to save his shot for the next night, but other than that I can't think of a good reason not to claim.
As a heads up, I'm gone camping for the next day or so. I don't expect internet access until Sunday morning. I'll be around for another hour tonight.
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Okay I'm back earlier than I said I'd be. I'd like everyone to role claim before the end of the first 24 hours if possible. (17ish hours from now?) Promethelax seemed fine with the idea. Does anyone have an issue with this?
The biggest defence I have right now is my suspicions of Umlaut as he's the most involved in sealing the deal. If he was scum, his gambit could never have worked the way he described (as Prom pointed out), but everyone is using that as the final piece of the puzzle to peg me as scum.
This only works if AmericanUmlaut is town, which is in no way confirmed by any checks. We have only our reads as far as I know, so my only way out is to convince you he's scummier than me. In his scum-list post (+ Show Spoiler +On July 02 2012 20:53 AmericanUmlaut wrote:The lurking PBUThere are currently four posters whose activity levels are low enough that I'd characterize them as lurking: Intact, BobTheLob, Blind-Rawr and iamperfection all have less than a page of posts, which is very little considering the amount of discussion that went on prior to the game actually starting. There are three PBUs. If they are playing intelligently, they will have noticed from the beginning that this game has had a fairly large number of lurkers, and one of them will be chilling among them and doing their best to just scoot by. It's possible that two scum are lurking, but I would guess that the others are among the more active posters because having only a single active community member puts you in a bad position if that player gets lynched; the PBUs lose their ability to manipulate debate, and one of the previous lurkers trying to establish their voice afterward is obviously scummy play. I think that my logic for concluding that at least one of the four low-post players is a PBU is strategically sound. Ideally we would flush them out by getting the other three to start posting more analysis, but I think it's clear at this point that we're going to have to win this with a couple of low-content players amongst us, which means we need to figure out which of the lurkers is most likely our PBU. We have little to go on, but let's take a look at what's available: iamperfection: His posting day 1 was worthless. Since day 2 has begun, he's started to participate, albeit in a very low-key manner. I'd like to see more thought-out posts from him, but I'm leaning toward his being one of the good guys and just unsure of how to play as the game got going. BobTheLob: His posting day 1 was worthless. His posting day 2 is worthless. My read is entirely worthless, because he's not playing. In an environment where everyone was being super productive and he was just posting about how drunk he is, I'd say let Kwark pop him, but I feel like the odds are too good that he's actually just a really awful town player to take that risk. Blind-RawR: Also posting so little actual analysis that it's hard to make any kind of useful read. However, Hopeless1der's case against him is such a stretch that my conclusion is that it's almost certainly a clumsy attempt at provoking another mislynch and that Blind_RawR is thus probably town. Which leaves us with: Intact: Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 20:22 Intact wrote: I think I saw this type of play in a previous mafia game. Not sure which one though. There were 2 mafia who argued agressivly towards eachother early on. This reminds me of that occasion. This is basically Intact's first move of the game: A vague reference to how maybe JH and Anacletus might both be scum, but presented in such a way that it's easy to distance yourself from later on. I acknowledge that I responded with agreement that this could be a useful bit of analysis if one of them flipped red, but knowing that both were town makes this look like an attempt to get discussion moving toward a mislynch. Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 10:29 Intact wrote: I'm going to stand by my read as analectus being scum but I have also become very suspicious of promethelax. People may have been bandwagoning analectus but as soon as he got into lynching territory promethelax show up with a long thread pointing out someone else, thereby making some people switch vote. This causes divisions and tensions among the town which is exactly what the scum want. I lean more towards fencer just playing badly and promethelax trying to save his scum partner analectus. I really don't see anything suspicious about Promethelax's case against Fencer. I think I'm not alone when I say that he's around the top of the suspects list at the moment. What about Promethelax's analysis of Fencer's play seemed suspicious? This seems like an attempt to just sow dissent without any real logic behind it. And then comes this brilliant observation: Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 10:48 Intact wrote: In addition, should we lynch analectus and he turns put to be mafia, it would make it fairly easy to point out the other mafia. And if he turns out to be townie it would be very easy to confirm some townies. Anacletus was, in fact, one of the good guys. We banned him. By what logic are we now able to confirm some townies? This post is just stupid, and to me it stinks of someone who is playing with the full information that a PBU has, and hasn't thought through the logic of the limited information environment that we town players are in enough to fake logical conclusions that sound like they were made by a townie. Summary: Four players (25% of the game population) are posting at barely-there levels, which leads me to conclude that at least one PBU is almost certainly hiding among them. An analysis of the few posts that they have made leads me to conclude that Intact is by far the most suspicious among them. The scumteam I currently have in mind is Intact, hopeless1der and Fencer710. Of the three, I feel the most strongly about Intact and hopeless1der; I feel like Fencer could conceivable be really bad and having a panicky reaction to being suspected. If anyone could help me analyze the way those three have interacted to argue either in favor of or against my hypothesis, I'd really appreciate the help. ), two out of the three he listed have flipped town. I will be the third on his list to flip town by the looks of things. Since my claim, he hasn't even tried to build up any more of a case on me, he's relying on the fact that his gambit was 100% guaranteed.
The last thing about Umlaut that is suspicious to me: Look at the day 1 votes
On July 01 2012 06:10 ghost_403 wrote: Day 1 Final Vote Count:
Anacletus (7): BLinD-RawR, BobTheLob, Fencer710, Intact, iamperfection, Myles, Promethelax Intact (1): Anacletus Fencer710 (1): Hopeless1der Hopeless1der (2): AmericanUmlaut, JingleHell
Not Voted: NrGmonk
Anacletus has been lynched Day 1. NrGmonk will be replaced for failing to vote.
Of the players that did NOT vote for Anacletus, two are alive. Me and Umlaut. I don't think all three scum would have voted for Anacletus. I'm of the impression that one of us is scum. I've made my claim as VT. I expect I have exhausted
@Promethelax, The reason I specifically wanted you to review my claim was that you've been getting a scummy read of me mainly from Jingle before his NK on Night1. I feel like you've had me as scum the longest, or at least were committed to it first when it was mainly based on my Day1 posting. Knowing that I was breadcrumbing (apparently meaningless things, but nevertheless...) and the first half of Day 1 was not my most productive posting, it may influence your read on me enough to move me into "not first" on your scum list.
Since Milton has been NK'd, I'd also like you to review this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=347856¤tpage=19#377 In your discussions with Jingle, you made note that we might be casting suspicion without repercussions due to the votes on Anacletus at the time, and it would be easier for us to "look less scummy if the other flips." Fencar/Miltonkram have since flipped town. I don't know if that makes me look more scummy or less scummy at this point, but the situation is different than the read you previously had and I'd like you to revisit it with the information we have now.
On July 08 2012 06:11 Keirathi wrote:I was roleblocked ...You gotta be fucking kidding me dude. My day is ruined. I wish someone would counter-claim this.
As a note on my breadcrumbing of things: There wasn't really a purpose to me breadcrumbing things as I had no role, I was attempting to practice or something like that in the event I got a blue in another game. I'm likely to make myself look retarded, but man I'm desperate to do something to make people think twice about me. Going through my filter from the start of the game, if you take every capitalized letter (except from green text) I spell : TITLE VANILLA TOWNIE AND YOU ARE AUF WIEDERSEHEN INITIATIVE HAIDEHP-->Nonsense from this point
The "auf wiedersehen" was a reference to Umlaut who I was going to try to get lynched for lurking if he didn't show up Day1. He started posting before I finished, but I figured what the hell why not? To not look like a spammy retarded scummy player is why not, so kudos to me for being a tard and setting myself up for failure.
If I was scum, why breadcrumb like this instead of pretending to hide a blue claim to go back to later on? There is practically no merit to what I did, just the risk of looking stupid/scummy, of which I probably look both at the moment.
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EBWOP: Paragraph after Vote-Count quote
I expect I have exhausted Umlaut's filter without trying to make a scumslip out of everything he did, so I'd like to see what he claims before tunnelling him any more than I already have.
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So is everyone gone? Is anyone else going to Role-Claim?
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Its lynch or lose. Why take the risk at this point in the game of not mass claiming. Do everything possible to NOT LOSE right now. Umlaut you're saying we should keep ourselves in the dark and rely on just the information we currently have, while Scum have an information advantage. Look how that method has worked out for town so far. We haven't hit one scum yet. That argument is complete bull. The biggest downside to not claiming is I'm going to end up lynched and town will lose the game. But that's exactly what you want, isn't it Umlaut? We're supposed to play WIFOM for the rest of the day instead of just claiming and discussing things with as open a table as we can. That sounds like a superb plan for scum to keep town in the dark.
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I agree with Prom about the role claims. Medic/Vet roles don't really help us even if they're claimed, Unfortunately, his schedule is probably going to force him to vote me before he leaves for work. I sincerely hope something I've said has made him think twice about it because its just about game over otherwise. I've already made my claim so there won't be any last minute blue claim from me. Just a good ol' green flip.
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After you lynch me, the game is over.
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