Newbie Mini Mafia XIX - Page 29

Just a note: Let me start off by apologizing for the formatting. I'm just using notepad and letting my thoughts free flow as I go. I am noting things as I go through the thread sequentually. I'm attempting not to go back and change my notes when new information comes up, because I don't feel thats helpful. Posting my notes and reads as the points come up, rather than a cumulative "after-the-fact" gives a better insight into my thought process. The numbers beside people's names are the % chance I feel of them being Mafia (the higher the number, the more likely I feel they are Mafia). The %chance numbers are cumulative feedback.

Note 2: I made the decision to ignore points relating to Fencar reads after the fact he asked to be modkilled. I feel like its pointless for me to speculate on that stuff when his role will be flipped soon, or we can take up the case again if he is replaced.



Anacletus (Dead - Lynched) - Jailer
Not really much to say here, he voted Fencer on a weak argument then abandoned defending his choice and himself when he started getting pressure. Can't really find much useful information here.



Myles - 60

D1 - "I think getting people to talk is a good idea, and if a witch hunt is the only way to that than so be it. And I don't really have a better idea, so witch hunt it is I guess." -- Kinda Flip-Floppy.
Not a lot of activity. When he gets called out on his activity levels, he dismisses it, then tries to switch the suspicion on even less active players, but keeps his vote on Fencar. Changes vote at the end of the day (new swing vote, after Jingle unvoted) to Anacletus just because of his inactivity. Defended Hopeless some.

N1 - Accuses people of bandwagonning when he did that himself. Defended his defense of Hopeless. Points a lot of fingers at Fencer, almost certainly not scumteam together.

D2 - Hasn't posted much useful stuff yet. Calls out some people for lurking. Announces a read on Prom and Umlaut as townies. Calls the Bob post relevent ("JH could have been killed so that he would shut up OR he so that we would be thrown off the trail of the real Scum. So it could be someone he said it was OR the opposite." [I talk about why this is a completely irrelevent post in my Bob section]). Still pushes towards an Intact lynch, with Fencar as a secondary. Jumps on the Intact wagon late (Maybe buying a way out if he gets called for the double bandwagon'ing? "I just didnt want a no-lynch so I went with my read that I already helped push votes to!").

N2 - Quite the outburst for killing a VT! Where was that passion when you killed the JK on D1? And you were on the votes for both of them.


NrGmonk/sciberbia - 25

D1 - Pretty cautious, not much actual content. Nice post at the end of the day with a reasonable defense argument for Anacletus, but seems to be too late to sway votes. Gives a weak ("noob rather than scum") defense of Fencar. Attempts to switch lurker pressure off of himself onto Bob, and to a lesser extent Intact, Myles, and Blind (me now). Points some weak arguments towards Intact.

N1 - Not replaced yet.

D2 - Sciberbia posting now. His first post is mostly just fluff introductions. Starts off with the wrong idea: trying to make/break cases against people that already have established cases against them. This is confirmation bias. Its so easy to look through a filter of someone that everyone else already says is mafia and pick out little things that the person said and see what other people have said. That's why I made my notes like this. I'm going through making notes as I get to things, rather than unintentionally reading between the lines of things just because other peoples opinions have planted the seed into my subconcious. That said: your overall read on Intact was so spot on that its eerie. Why didn't anyone else see it? Do you have information that they didn't have? I totally agree with your read on BlinD, even though that's me now. Hopefully I can convince people otherwise :D FoS's on both Bob and BlinD, mostly for lurking. Hammers the Intact wagon solely to avoid a no-lynch when he doesn't think (or KNOWS?) that Intact is town.




JingleHell (Dead - Night Killed) - Vanilla

D1 - Suspected Umlaut early. Points a finger at Hopeless about the swing vote argument, and again later regarding the same topic. Eventually makes a large case against him, and ##Votes him.

N1 - Made a case against Hopeless and got night killed. Either to fake a trail to Hopeless to get him lynched (which doesn't happen), or possibly in defense of him. Listed his potential suspects as Hopeless, Myles, and Fencer before he died.



AmericanUmlaut - 30

D1 - Proposes new idea, but at the same time is an that could be seen to be scum-biased (Lynch all Liars). Supplies compelling argument against Myles and Monk, while keeping his vote on Anacletus, downplaying Fencar's play as just being bad and therefor ignorable. Points a finger at Prom for the Fencar switch as well. Probably not mafia if Prom is, and vice versa. Switches vote to Hopeless based on Jingle's argument, but still backs a Anacletus lynch over a no-lynch (Which goes against the JingleHell argument to begin with [willing to vote a less-scummy read just to get a kill]). JH Calls him out on this (second time he's FoSd Umlaut).

N1 - Only contribution was a flimsy pro-town sentiment of "don't discuss reads at night because it increases your risk of being shot". Obviously understands making arguments, but doesn't. Seems to just be skating by.

D2 - Comes out with a big post on lynching lurkers, with some reads on the people who are lurking. Makes a big post "contributing" to the Intact case, which obviously turns out bad, bust mostly reuses a lot of the same arguments Hopeless already made. Guess his 1/4 chance bit him in the ass (or not?). Defends accusations against Myles out of nowhere. Makes a very odd argument against Fencar after he asked the mod to be replaced. Weakly defends Bob while pointing a finger at Hopeless without really saying why. Wait WHAT - "Playing inactive is a less risky role than joining more actively in discussion, which leads me to believe that Intact is the most likely of the three to have an ability." ?!? Most likely to have a blue role? Then why would you want to lynch him? Comes around later to defend Hopeless and further pushes the Intact lynch without actually making more points (actually argues about sciberbia's reads in his INTACT IS THE BEST LYNCH paragraph, which I don't see how are relevent). Keeps his intact vote in place, while making points against Bob at the end of the day.



Intact (Dead - Lynched) - Vanilla
D1 - Picked up on the scummy Prom switch to Fencar and commented on it. No other real contributions.

N1 - No contributions.

D2 - Points some fingers back at Prom before he died, which influences the final votes to get him wagoned.




BobeTheLob - 40 (but hard to really get a read on)
D1 - Very, very little said, then jumps in on the Anacletus vote without giving any real justification. Only defends himself with "I'm new" and still doesn't post content. Somehow argues that he's actually contributing, when its clear that he hasnt.

N1 - Posted a list of reads that had very little in the way of actual reads (Lots of "I don't knows" and piggybacking on other arguments). Despite this, he feels like a newbie town rather than a scum at this point.

D2 - "JH could have been killed so that he would shut up OR he so that we would be thrown off the trail of the real Scum. So it could be someone he said it was OR the opposite." This is the most useless thing said yet. He basically said "With JH dead, it could be anyone!" Obvious, and useless fluff. Can't really be posting fluff on D2. Comes out of the woodworks with a weak defense to sciberbias FoS, still giving no reads. Again, quickly to his own self defense when Perfection agrees with sciberbia's reads. Really convenient that he's around when he's getting pressure, and apologizing for his previous lurking. Dismisses all previous cases as guesswork and assumption. Mentions that people should look at Hopeless (but doesn't actually make arguments for himself).



iamperfection - 30

D1 - Extremely non-commital and uncooperative early. Restarts the Anacletus vote train rolling after people started making cases against Fencar. Doesn't make many reads, other than accosting Bob after an admittedly useless post.

N1 - Comes out of nowhere with some pro-town sentiment to use more logic, but I don't really think this helps his case much because he hasn't been posting enough and he was in on the lynch vote. He seems to have a decent understanding of the game in his posts, but is still coasting by with the absolute minimum amount of posting/cooperation.

D2 - Tries to defuse the Fencer vote on Hopeless by asking for Intact to respond to suspicions against himself? Defends Hopeless's case against Intact. Posts late in the day to defend BlinD (now me) against sciberbia's case. In the same post, agrees with sciberbia's accusation of Bob having wishy-washy reads, but still doesn't give reads of his own.




Promethelax - 75

Early D1 - Big anti-Anacletus sentiment, possibly scummy. Hard changes to Fencar after the Anacletus vote gains steam, albeit with a fairly well reasoned out post. Possible escape mechanism? Decent chance that he isn't mafia if Fencar is, and vice versa.
"I'm 99% sure that if Anacletus flips town Fencer is scum." We'll see if he follows up with that in D2. Their (Fencar and Anacletus) posting hasn't targetted each other much at all (Fencar has been defending himself mostly, and Anacletus just not posting much), despite voting each other, so this sentiment doesn't make much sense. Biggest scum read so far, as its an easy thing to bring up in D2 after Anacletus flips town and base an argument around. Swing-votes to Anacletus despite the fact that he says Fencar is scummier. Uses some early Anacletus posts to say that hes FoS'ing Fencar, when he had been lobbying hard for him earlier anyways.

N1 - Tries to cooperate with JH, who almost unanimously has been a town read. Escape plan for when JH is shot tonight, while perpetuating the Hopeless bus tomorrow? Tons of pressure towards Hopeless, lets see how its followed up tommorrow. If he keeps up a lot of pressure, one of them is probably mafia, but almost definitely not both. Still feels scummy that he completely forgets his "99% sure of scum if Anacletus flips town" argument on Fencer. More evidence of a possible escape plan later ("I have trouble seeing why after I flipped green or you flipped green anyone would lynch the other one."). Easy to see why a night kill of JH would make sense if he was mafia. Still my strongest scum read at this point. Makes some compelling arguments against Myles, which could definitely get Myles lynched. Almost certainly not scumteam with him. However in the post against Myles, he said "You'll see in the above post two soft defenses of town players (JH and Anacletus)," Possible scum slip? He has said previously that he believes JH to be town, but this specific line seems to say that he 100% knows that JH is town. Just more evidence for the escape plan when JH is night killed, IMO.

D2 - Ugh, useless drunk posting. Immediately jumps on Fencar for the post of other people's reads, although makes some really silly points in it. Addresses his D1 cases against Fencar, still without mentioning the "99% sure" part (he quotes other posts he made against Fencar, but not that one). Same post: "The three people that JH was looking at as scum before he died were Hopeless, Fencar and Myles...The one I am most sure of is Fencar[...]" Lets see how much conviction you have with it this time, and how much you push it if you are so sure. Makes an interesting observation that he would have investigated Umlaut if he was DT night1, but says he trusts that he's town now. Now that Fencar is out (who he still claims was his biggest read, despite not voting for him), he shifts his attention to Intact, who had the largest number of cases against him, as well as a case by Umlat whom he says he trusts as town now. Probably the start of the bandwagon, here. Further propogates the Intact lynch again, without adding much other than saying he didn't buy Intact's explanation of his internet working. Something else about him thats bothering me at this point: almost every post is something like "I'm Townie! Look how townie I am! Some other townie come help me make cases!" I feel like he's trying to hard to convince everyone that he's town, and he's getting away with it just because of JH.



Fencar - (Honestly no idea. His play was so boggling and he just gave up.)

D1 - "For better or for worse, my views are the same as Umlaut's. I can't really add anything. :\"
Extremely bad stance for a town to take early in d1. He says its because he's new. He gives no new input or ideas, just relays things other people have said, and follows votes around. Constanly uses being a newbie as a defense after some attention switches to him, but it's a somewhat believable defense. Then uses the mafia guide to defend himself??? Gradually feeling less and less like scum, and just a new townie trying to figure out the proper way to post. Then actually encourages the vote on Anacletus with a "bandwagon him or me" post. Really hard to get a read on this guy because hes all over the place.
Now he really throws me for a loop, with a thorough (albeit flimsy) defense of Prom, who has hard accused him all game and had no incoming pressure.

N1 - Where has he been?

D2 - Out of nowhere he says "It looks like JingeHell was killed for being intelligent, rather than being specifically suspicious of anyone." JH was suspicious (and posted his suspect list) of multiple people, so it doesn't make any sense at all. 4 posts later, he starts the ball rolling by FoS'ing Intact, then says "I think the dead men got their votes right" and adds Hopeless to his FoS list as well. I thought you just said it looked like JH was killed because of his intelligence, rather than being suspicious of anyone? Make up your mind. Immediately makes a new post and votes Hopeless entirely based on Prom's post against him, without adding any justification for why he agreed with it. Lays out a nice post of reads people have made, and who hasn't made any (I can't double check his conclusions because I don't really have time to go through filters at this point. I'm at ~7 hours of taking notes just reading sequentially as is ), but at the same time this doesn't really add anything. Everyone has the ability to check the filters. You need your own reads, not just a list of others. Says he gives up now, asks to be replaced. Frustrated townie, or frustrated scum? If he doesn't get replaced by D3 and gets modkilled, all of these notes will be very interesting.



Hopeless1der - 50

D1 - Very little activity early, jumps on a useless post that was a reply to the host. Defends Anacletus a bit later on. Jumps on a Fencar post with the argument "I don't think your posting is scummy, just unproductive" and votes him. Convenient argument for not being the hammer vote on D1 ("As you've already changed your vote to ensure a lynch, it probably doesn't matter anymore, but I was going to do the same thing (Switch vote from Fencer to Anacletus) closer to the deadline (unless Fencer got jumped).")

N1 - Defends himself by saying he didn't think Anacletus or Fencer were scummy, while he voted Fencer and said he would jump to Anacletus at the last minute if he had to. Why voting people you don't feel are scum? Not wanting to No-Lynch isn't a good enough reason, IMO.

D2 - First fully laid out case against Intact. Makes a strong case that probably eventually lead to the townie lynch. Where's the information on other people, rather than tunneling the one? Oh, its a few posts down. Makes a case against BlinD (now me), but it has no real hard leads (almost solely just that he's lurking and isnt contributing, which is certainly useful [obviously, I've mentioned numerous times in those notes about people not posting], but not exactly damning at this point), and objectively feels pretty weak. Points some more small arguments towards Bob that are along the same lines. Redirecting attention towards others to keep it off of himself? Towards BlinD: "I want to see reads, not vague accusations of what might be scummy behaviour." when this is exactly what his cases against BlinD and Bob are; cases against their activity level rather than reads on the content. "However, the more time spent on me is less time spent on any other case." Don't want time spent on you? Seems to have dramatically stepped up his activity on D2, which is odd.




Day 1 Final Votes:

Anacletus : BLinD-RawR(me now), BobTheLob, Fencer710, Intact (Townie), iamperfection, Promethelax, Myles
Intact (Town) : Anacletus (Town)
Fencer710 : Hopeless1der
Hopeless1der : AmericanUmlaut, JingleHell


Day 2 Final Votes:

BLinD-RawR (1): Intact
Intact (6): AmericanUmlaut, BobTheLob, Promethelax, Hopeless1der, Myles, sciberbia
Hopeless1der(1): Fencar
BobTheLob (1): iamperfection


The repeat votes on the mislynches: BobTheLob, Promethelax, Myles

I think there is a very good possibility that at least one of the Mafia is in this list.

And then he votes him, unvotes, and revotes.

I think a few people have remarked on Fencar's unproductive posting style. But, this is not a scumtell because it exactly matches his posts in the pregame. I would not hold his multitude of short posts against him.

Look at the timestamps of his posts. He often made many posts in quick succession. I always find quickly written posts to be a symptom of townies -- people that have nothing to hide.

My main point is:
If Fencar was scum, I really don't see why he'd be doing so much posting. He obiously did way more than enough posting not to be branded a lurker. I'd expect a nervous scum to avoid posting as much as possible. But Fencar evidently felt obligated to contribute, even though he was very nervous and under fire. This is symptomatic of a nervous townie.

I could be wrong about this, but such an explicit bandwaggon and lack of contribution in his first post seems too obvious a scumtell, even for a newbie. I'd be surprised to see any scum make such an obviously poor first post. Scum would be especially nervous/paranoid about their first post and make sure it is good. A scum Fencar surely wouldn't want to draw any more attention than he already had after not posting for so long.

While others have deemed this a scummy post by Fencar, I think it is actually a point in his favor. Reads as newbie townie.

Fencar was first to vote. He then unvoted after being scolded, but then revoted as soon as Intact voted on Anacletus.
Also on D2, Fencar was bold in voting hopeless1der so early.

Such bold voting reads newbie townie to me more than newbie scum. Newbie scum would be terrified of drawing attention for making the first vote.