Movie Star Mini Mafia! - Page 80

Day 1 Notes:

Right off the bat we have some strange occurrences. VE as usual is all over the place; his logic is nearly impossible to follow and it's very difficult for any townie on the receiving end of his pressure to adequately defend themselves (because there is nothing to defend against)

This, for example:



merely serves to antagonize and put marvellosity on the defensive. Since VE is wrong, I predict he's going to end up wasting a very large amount of town's time in a wild goose chase.

---

This is disingenuous for two reasons:

one, if marvellosity is actually scum he's more than capable of simply lying about his meta tells. So first of all, Mattchew's question itself is pretty loaded and it's nearly impossible for a proper townie to answer the question because most townies cannot grasp their own meta. Meta analysis is often ineffective because people don't know how to use it, and it's almost impossible for a player to accurately describe his or her own meta in the first place.



again, more antagonism and a huge jump in conclusions.

VE in four or five posts has gone from calling zentor sure scum, to calling marvellosity sure scum (previously calling him town) to pressuring prplhz.



again, more antagonism and less logic. This isn't the way to find scum, it's just the way to piss people off.

Very anti-productive.



Now, VE has a correct vote. This is correct reasoning. However, will this vote last?

I anticipate that it won't (it's around 00:45 GMT (+00:00) on day 1 that I'm writing this; 3 hours into the game. I imagine that later on in the day VE is going to switch his vote off prplhz, as this accusation won't stick (it's going to alarm prplhz into changing his approach. If he doesn't, then he'll get lynched) VE will most likely either change his vote if prplhz does not gain traction, and he will change it onto the bandwagon, OR he will change it when a townie calls out the fact that his marvellosity pressure abruptly ended. In the latter case I predict VE will simply put his vote back onto marvellosity.

At this point it's clear Snarfs is trolling (with his Probulous vote). I wonder if anyone will call him out on his lack of contribution or whether he's going to blend in and skate along for the day. If he manages to scrape by unscathed he could live for a very long time.



The VE unvote occurs as I suspected.

Any good scum who is watching VE playing at this moment knows that VE's reads are completely haphazard and based on next to nothing. Thus, if VE is pressuring them they should know that even the slightest bit of manipulation will cause VE to back off and pursue someone who is either more controversial or more “anti-town” than them. This can be very dangerous for town and it could set up VE to be lynched later.



Very valid question posed here by Probulous.

Probulous notes VE's very strange behavior regarding his votes, but I think it's going to be hard for townies this game to figure out whether VE is doing this as scum or as confused town if he keeps up his current style. It's been a recurring pattern in recent games and I'm curious as to whether VE will manage to establish himself and produce proper results.



another good post with ideas in the correct general direction.

I'd like to see slOosh develop his thoughts more clearly and establish ideas so that the lynch pressure can move onto the proper targets for day 1. He clearly has the correct ideas but at the moment they're very weak. He needs to substantiate this with more reading and potentially a delayed vote. If he strongly votes Snarfs later he is definitely on the correct track. Turns out someone DID notice Snarfs's earlier oddly trollish post. Good on you, slOosh.



This is half correct.

Zephirdd clearly has been thinking about the ramifications of claiming in this type of setup and based on the effort he has put into this post it should make it more evident to other players that he is town. However, he's going to get some disagreement on the miller claim issue because it's nearly always the optimal play for a miller to claim immediately upon receiving his role. As scum it's a huge risk to claim miller because it takes time to formulate such a plan (so it needs to basically be a pre-game plan) and your team may not even agree with the claim. Then, as a claimed miller generally becomes a named townie, he becomes far more likely to be shot (thus necessitating things like roleblock claims later to hint toward jailkeeper protects). Scum need to be able to justify living as a claimed miller whereas a claimed townie miller will just end up getting shot.

In addition, since mafia can do exactly what Zephirdd suggests millers should do in case of a cop check, Zephirdd's idea is actually very dangerous to town. Luckily for him, his tone has come across as town because of the thought he has put into claims.



Predictable VE, very predictable.

Pretty shitty vote once again, and I could imagine from a town perspective it could be very hard to read VE's agenda here. From the looks of it it almost seems as if the only reason VE is voting marvellosity is because Probulous made him realize he flip flopped.

Thus this could create a huge red herring and a big problem for town and VE specifically later. If this indeed does happen, let it be a lesson to all townies: think about what you do carefully before you do it. If you're haphazard and you change votes like a chicken with its head cut off, you draw very negative attention to yourself because most of the time you're voting innocent townies (who will then be dispensed toward OMGUSing you)

Shortly after VE's revote come risk nuke's and probulous's votes of marvellosity. A bandwagon seems to be forming but if marvellosity acts fast enough he can probably reverse the momentum.

As usual, this bandwagon is being started by townies on another townie. The scum are just sitting back and watching the derpage.




Here is where it's clear VE has no idea what he's talking about and has managed to confuse even himself.

Originally VE called marvellosity scum because he didn't answer Mattchew's loaded question about what marvellosity perceives to be the difference between his own scum and town play. By definition this would be referring to his own meta in order to help “defend” himself (as no doubt no matter what his alignment is marvellosity would assert to everyone else that he is town)

Now, in this post, VE finds marvellosity suspicious because of his supposed-meta defense of himself. Marvellosity never defended himself using his own meta (and this part of VE's post is incredibly disingenuous; close to a lie, in fact.)

As VE has said this he has made it very clear that no matter what marvellosity would've done, VE would've found marvellosity suspicious. Hence, Mattchew's very simple but loaded question has thrown town into disarray.

In other words, if marvellosity chose to answer Mattchew's question, town would be on his back for a WIFOMy meta defense response.

If marvellosity didn't answer the question, town would be on his back for not answering the question.

The origin of this problem is Mattchew, and because VE was too quick to jump on any sort of pressure, he missed the genesis of the idea. Thus, if marvellosity dies and flips town the person who will take the fall will be VE, not Mattchew.



so far this is the best response by someone who is not involved in the marvellosity-VE-mattchew debacle. In fact, this is the response that EVERY sane townie should have.

For the most part the marvellosity bandwagon is simply a witchhunt based on a couple of misunderstood words. Because of all the loud yelling, however, no one is quite clear on what is happening (and thus the players on the bandwagon will continue to have a confirmation bias that their target is more and more scummy as time passes)

The last part about the miller, again, is wrong, but marvellosity responds to it quickly and Zephirdd realizes his mistake (though again has another incorrect train of thought regarding whether a good unclaimed miller would be checked—people are checked for all sorts of different reasons and as every player is different an unclaimed miller who expects not to get checked is simply naïve.)



From what I recall, VE did none of this. Most of VE's accusations were actually unbased assertions that marvellosity is scum.

This is documented by his numerous one-liner antagonistic posts against marvellosity.



The bolded was not a strawman; VE simply doesn't understand what a strawman is.

What's ironic here is that VE accuses marvellosity of having an empty threat when arguably marvellosity has far more reason to be suspicious of VE than the other way around. VE's play so far has been incredibly haphazard and poor, and the statements he has made about marvellosity's post can be made 10-fold for almost all of his own.



Excellent. So someone DID notice that Mattchew asked marvellosity a question and then disappeared.

Can Probulous make the connection that prodding someone and then not being part of the pressuring process is a massive scumtell? Can he wade through the garbage that is the VE/marvellosity mess to come to this conclusion?

Right now the day's outcome hinges on whether Probulous and slOosh can identify Mattchew and Snarfs as scum, respectively, and then convince everyone else to kill them. Otherwise there's a very strong chance someone like marvellosity, VE, or Zentor will die at the hands of town.



Correct response. Zephirdd is wasting even more discussion and creating a mess when this argument is almost completely pointless.

First of all, there have been no miller claims. Second of all, he's wrong about whether or not early miller claims (as opposed to later miller claims) should be suspect. The earlier a miller claim is, the less likely it is to be a scum miller claim. In fact, if it's not made as the first post someone makes, I would argue that it would be very unlikely to be a true claim. Why? Because scum use claims as last resorts (generally) and as a failsafe.

Any miller claim that is not the first post someone makes should be policy lynched, because such claims are too easy for scum to make. It is literally the easiest claim for a goon, framer, or Rber to make because they've already determined what alignment they'll return if a cop checks them. If you don't have this policy then scum who claim miller in reaction to a check are less likely to be lynched, making the claim far more effective for scum. If the policy exists that the only miller claims who are allowed to live are those that are made at the very beginning of the game (first post) then in order for a scum to fake claim miller it needs to be a pregame plan (and later in the game they'll have a hard time explaining why they are still alive)

In other words a d1 miller claim is treated like any other player but with the caveat that a check automatically returns red. Any miller claim after the beginning of d1 should be treated as a scum claim because it's more beneficial for scum to wait to claim than it is for town.



Another excellent post by slOosh. While Probulous has been drawn into the marvellosity bandwagon (though his reasoning remains, for the most part, sound; he's missing a few key details in his mind) slOosh has remained calm and reasonable throughout.

If slOosh can connect the dots (as he seems to have identified that Probulous is also town already) then he should start pushing the bandwagon on marvellosity backwards so that it cannot gain any more steam.

It all depends now on how Mattchew and Snarfs continue to post in the thread. If mattchew continues to stay away from the thread, Probulous and slOosh need to take note of it and punish him for it later with a strong counterwagon to marvellosity. It may not be the best idea to vote him now, but rather to hold onto the read until the time is right and enough information has been gathered.

What may happen also, however, is that someone random will be chosen for lynch (probably a bad townie) and then the bandwagon will start incredibly quickly on the basis of the player being weak. This might happen if marvellosity is able to resist taking votes. In this situation the argument will most likely continue into tomorrow unless both marvellosity and VE somehow magically start thinking each other are town.



This post by Probulous shows good intention, but large jumps from (incorrect) assumptions to equally incorrect conclusions.

Marvellosity doesn’t avoid answering the question but seems legitimately curious what Mattchew thinks first. Indeed it makes perfect sense from a marv = town standpoint to validate Mattchew’s question to confirm he’s town asking, rather than scum. Indeed, since Mattchew never responded this should’ve set off alarm bells in the head of everyone reading the thread. Instead, VE jumped on this false scumtell and buried the thread in garbage, thus reducing the chance that Mattchew would be caught to nearly 0.

So no, marvellosity didn’t seem to be deliberately avoiding to answer. He seemed to indicate a willingness to answer given that Mattchew gave a semblance of the same willingness. Since Mattchew didn’t hold up his end of the bargain, I see no reason why it is scummy for marvellosity to not have answered (particularly since this is not some serious or very valid concern like a scum read anyway)
Finally, Probulous’s third quoted part is incorrect in its assumption. It’s only true if you first assume marvellosity is scum. If you make that assumption then it doesn’t really matter what you ask him. From an objective viewpoint, though, marvellosity saying what he said is not alignment indicative at all. He’s not at all saying he planned that answer like Probulous is asserting.

In essence, from an objective viewpoint:

if marvellosity is town, then he didn’t think through his response and it accidentally came out scummy (or is incorrectly perceived as scummy by others)

if marvellosity is scum, then he avoided answering a question (debatable)

Notice here that the action itself is not indicative of anything unless you already know marvellosity’s alignment. Even if you did, at that point it would be self-confirming and completely worthless anyway.



ding ding ding

which means what? It was NOT alignment indicative.

If anything, it was slightly townish, as scum players tend to make fewer mistakes, but even scum players make mistakes. Try my first game as scum, for example: My Little Pony Mini Mafia. On d2 I misread a host PM and it almost cost my life that day. I passed off the mistake as something a townie would do and barely lived (though that wasn’t entirely why I lived)



this post by VE is moronic and I can’t really tell as an observer whether or not it’s serious or sarcastic. If it’s serious then he’s clearly simply already labelled marvellosity as scum and is suffering from mega confirmation bias as he tries to fit everything to his incorrect read.

This post essentially twists marvellosity’s words as hard as it can to make the read work. It’s not a very objective, town-like thing to do (for a good scumhunter) and so as a vet VE takes heat because he should know better.

I would not blame anyone in this game who catches onto this and then lynches VE for it, as it’s actually incredibly misleading. It might explain why VE gets mislynched so often.

(I suppose the solution is to continue lynching VE when he says stuff like this until he learns not to)



This is a fairly genuine post for someone like MrZentor. Unfortunately based on VE’s followup it might bode badly for him because he hasn’t accompanied it with a scumread.



VE seems to not be reading the thread thoroughly, as it’s Zephirdd who’s going on and on about millers, while slOosh is merely clarifying and helping as well as commenting fairly regularly on other things going on.



Zephirdd just caught what I said, good for him.



Players better take note of this post and hold him accountable.

If he hasn’t contributed anything later in the day Mattchew should be on the table for a d2 lynch.



lol.

If anyone gets in a fight over VE where VE accuses them of being scum for flip flopping, I will laugh very hard if they quote this post.



This post is shady as fuck and I’ll be severely disappointed if no one notices how weak it is.

Mattchew’s previous post in response to marvellosity was also fairly weak, though I think in more subtle ways than this one.



Similar phenomenon here.

Notice how unwilling Snarfs is to calling anyone scum. Most curious is that he has no discernible stance on Mattchew and marvellosity despite writing a block of text each about scummy things both players have done.

Once again, people need to hold this guy accountable. He’s put down some “thoughts” and it should be interesting to see how they develop into a push of his reads (what are his reads?) and his vote later.



A third, equally weak as the last two post. Again, people need to take notice of this and hold this guy accountable to what he’s writing.

Notice how, again, no scumread, but a block of text about the happenings in the thread. How can you write so much and yet say so little? There is no stance here, no direction. Just fluff.



Well, that sucks.

This is probably the first indication that neither marv nor VE will get lynched. Instead, since both opposite sides prefer a third scummy guy, he’ll get lynched. Not particularly good for town as it does nothing but kill the least-liked guy and waste a lynch all in one fell swoop.



BAM SON.

You get points for actually reading the thread unlike the massive jubjubs all around you. Congratulations, you’re observant and at the very least literate.

Now push your case and get this guy killed.



The one thing that’s really shady about this post is that prplhz wants to kill Zentor merely because he dislikes him. It’s a policy lynch, but a terrible one at that.

As town you always want to kill the guy who’s most likely to flip scum. If you’re policy lynching a guy who is, by your own admission, completely null because he plays like an ass, then you’re telling everyone when you vote him that you have no reads that are better than “null.”

Because of that, you instantly become a better lynch than the guy you’re trying to kill with your stupid little policy.

Therefore, all the townies who follow prplhz onto this lynch without questioning his zealousness for the policy are basically saying that they’re completely fine with another player having no scumreads.



Being a “headache” is not “scummy.” At this point prplhz is asserting that Zentor is the scummiest with no basis for the assertion. Meaningless words, essentially. Let’s see if anyone notices.

Next 10-20 posts: lurking townie von Klaust enters the thread and continues the stupid marvellosity drivel because he hasn’t read properly. Not particularly surprising given that he’s done nothing so far.



Another excellent post by slOosh.

When will people actually start reading shit he’s saying? At this rate he’s going to get shot in the face on n1, and that’ll be a sad loss for town (as he is the jailkeeper). It’ll be even more sad because townies on TL never reread after a flip, so everything slOosh has said will be gone forever if he dies.



Another really stupid assertion by VE.

From an outside perspective as a townie no one knows what your alignment is. In fact it’s even more true for VE as he’s been mislynched more than any other player I can think of on this forum.

If you consistently get mislynched then how can you say that you play an “obvious” town game? At that point it’s just self delusion due to an over inflated ego.



Excellent deconstruction of VE’s post, but sadly it’s not going to result in a very good response from him.

The thread is going to continue to explode as marvellosity struggles to figure out VE’s play and VE continues to tunnel marvellosity to oblivion.



Another fairly bad post that I hope people will recognize for what it is. It might get buried under the VE/marv debacle, though. More or less it’s nothing but a post by post summary, something anyone can do. Since anyone can do it, it’s pretty much just a post that appears to be a contribution, when it’s just more garbage.



ARE YOU GOING TO CALL HIM SCUM FOR IT?

YOU’RE SO CLOSE GOD DAMN IT



SAME THING TO YOU GOOD SIR

CALL HIM OUT SOME MORE

SAVE THESE JUBJUBS



Nice post here by Snarfs; in order to identify Snarfs’s motivations here the players are going to have to read very carefully. It’ll help him to blend in more unless there’s a townie who already has a scumread of him. In that case that player may be able to identify the deception.



Same as above: a good post that makes up for the mistakes mattchew was making earlier. It may overshadow his previous scumminess for a while.



5/10 but it sucks that the read is so weak that it’s obvious a slight gust of air will cause slOosh to switch votes.

Word of advice: if you have a nagging suspicion that someone is scum, let them post more (or bait them into talking about things without voting them) and then if you have the same suspicion 5-6 hours later, slam them with a concrete case that forces attention.

If you make a weak vote like this you’ll get manipulated and then the read will be lost. Thus, if you’re actually correct you’ll get shot and then no one will know you were onto something, since outwardly this particular read seemed the same as all of your earlier ones.



Much better.

Now is he going to correctly identify the three other guys who might instead be lynched? slOosh needs to ensure that when this read is pushed, anyone who derails is slapped in the face.

Next page:

more VE/marvellosity derpage.

*yawn*

sadly slOosh’s case is getting buried and probably the only person who will notice it is Snarfs. This is going to weaken it considerably and my prediction is that slOosh will back off and hop on an easy bandwagon instead as his lynch takes resistance.