EPTOn June 13 2012 06:41 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Your lions will be refunded if someone else gets to your target first.
Your lions will be refunded if someone else gets to your target first.
TL Mafia LVI
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
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Promise not to go nuts during this one | ||
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austinmcc
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austinmcc
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Where go ze lions? | ||
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austinmcc
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Forget Norway. | ||
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On June 30 2012 06:36 Acrofales wrote: Nvm. Drinking beer is bad! Nobody should be mayor with this for a platform. | ||
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On June 30 2012 10:07 VisceraEyes wrote: BKE, that sounded like a radio-show call-in. "Yeah, I've got this FRIEND, okay? NOT ME, IT'S A FRIEND! Anyway..." lol For my part, I'm going to be treating new players the same way I'd be treating anyone else - I'm going to tunnel them hard until they shoot me in the face. Obviously it's going to be harder than discerning the intentions of people who "should know better" or whatever, but that's all we can really do. | ||
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austinmcc
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austinmcc
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I'll admit that I don't find "BKE often looks scummy as town" to be strong reasoning, but for D1 it's enough that I don't want lynch him. I also thought BKE had played in another game or two, but didn't see more in his profile. However, I'd love for him to clarify his first post, given all this discussion. Broodking, you say that you don't consider those with 4 or 5 games newbies. The rest of the players seem to disagree, and I know that I do (no more newbie games allowed =/= not a newbie in my mind). IF you accept a much more broad definition of noob, like the thread seems to want, would you alter your first post? Should people with something like 4-8 games be treated like the noobs in your post, or treated like more seasoned players? I'm alright with adding my vote to mK right now. The whole "role name" thing is actually what I thought Mattchew was referring to earlier when he said a previous poster looked super townie to him, and that was my dumb "don't think you should be trusting that" post. It's in VT pms, it's in the OP, if scum received the VT pm then they had it too, etc. Worried that mK's reaction is a blue who didn't read vs. scum who didn't read (those are the obvious options, so don't get on my junk about possibly revealing blues), but if so, he can defend himself if he ever returns to the thread. The absence in the face of votes doesn't look good to me from that standpoint. NoSmurf, initially I read you as one of the more sensible and townie folks in the thread. However, this caught my eye somewhat: On July 01 2012 10:23 NoSmurfHere wrote: You seem to sincerely believe in such terrible logic, so you're probably town. However I'm not voting BKE just because it's day 1. I don't think anything he's done or said is so far particularly scummy. At no point have I agreed with that terrible case, so why bother acknowledging that the rest of you are idiots for bandwagoning him? On the other hand mafia lurk to shake suspicion ALL the time. mK seemingly has done exactly this, and if he's mafia certainly it's working. So, in this case, obviously I'm far more inclined to believe that the guy who is actively trying to stop a bad lynch is town whereas the scummy lurker is not. If mK is town he has a huge incentive to address the votes on him and make a case on his scumreads rather than disappear immediately after voting. Also speculating about his status is pretty stupid when I voted for him fairly quickly after he posted. On July 01 2012 12:38 NoSmurfHere wrote: this is a good case and these are all things I picked up on myself when I read mandalor's posts. I am completely fine with Mandalor and mKmKmK being lynched today. Anyone else will take some serious convincing. For now I'm going to keep my vote on mK, but in the interest of consolidation and actually lynching someone I have a scumread on, if that lynch doesn't fly I'll push Mandalor with you. Care to explain your train of thought? Over the course of 2 hours, you went from "probably town" to "completely fine with Mandalor lynch/scumread on Mandalor." Would like for you to articulate why you changed your read there. | ||
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austinmcc
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On July 01 2012 22:44 austinmcc wrote: However, I'd love for him to clarify his first post, given all this discussion. Broodking, you say that you don't consider those with 4 or 5 games newbies. The rest of the players seem to disagree, and I know that I do (no more newbie games allowed =/= not a newbie in my mind). IF you accept a much more broad definition of noob, like the thread seems to want, would you alter your first post? Should people with something like 4-8 games be treated like the noobs in your post, or treated like more seasoned players? NoSmurfHere, I would still like for you to explain your train of thought on Mandalor. May as well update your read on him as well. NoSmurf, initially I read you as one of the more sensible and townie folks in the thread. However, this caught my eye somewhat: Care to explain your train of thought? Over the course of 2 hours, you went from "probably town" to "completely fine with Mandalor lynch/scumread on Mandalor." Would like for you to articulate why you changed your read there. | ||
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austinmcc
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The Good Doctor's filter is the following: (1) On June 30 2012 12:14 drwiggl3s wrote: As has been mentioned, the OP had the "role name" bit, and we can assume if scum got a VT fakeclaim it had the same text. Role name wasn't indicative of mK's alignment, not indicative of the Good Doctor's alignment either.Hi all. First game + first post playing mafia so bare with me. My role PM also said I'm a "Role Name". So NoSmurfHere is definitely town in my books. (2) On June 30 2012 18:06 drwiggl3s wrote: ##Vote BroodKingEXE The ol' ninja vote BKE. (3) Nine hours later On July 01 2012 05:13 drwiggl3s wrote: Ok since some people asked, here's what I'm thinking. I agree that BKEXE's initial posts were a tad scummy. But what gave it away to me was that after casualman voted for him, both Mattchew and BKEXE immediately returned the favour and voted for casualman to be lynched. Both without any explanation other than saying "Wtf is this". And then later, both went MIA for quite a while instead of explaining their votes or trying to defend BKEXE. You may ask why would casualman throw his vote at BKEXE so early. It could be he is either just noob, or it could be he read BKEXE as scum (like many people are now) but just before a lot of people had the chance to. As for other players: I find many people are soft defending BKEXE and in their posts trying to put suspicion onto others (with little reason). I see these as scummy moves. Stop and read that third post. Please. The only post of any substance. The Good Doctor thought BKE looked scummy, but didn't mention that and didn't vote for BKE. However, after CASUALMAN of all people voted for BKE, BKE and Mattchew voted for casualman with little explanation. This makes BKE scum in drwiggl3s head. Here is how casualman voted, by the way: On June 30 2012 14:23 casualman wrote: Either casualman is trolling and trolling hard, or casualman just dropped a vote that legitimately should make every go "Wtf is this?" That's a legitimate response to casualman's comment and vote. BKE's wtf is this vote for casualman is the tipping point that makes drwiggl3s read BKE as scummy and vote him, which is a terrible reason given casualman's post and vote.I love to bandwagon. Being a newb, I can read nothing from these posts and will blindly trust in authority figures. Woohoo! ##Vote BroodKingEXE I don't necessarily read casualman as scummy yet, but drwiggl3s also drops a little explanation for why casualman dropped his stupid post. You may ask why would casualman throw his vote at BKEXE so early. It could be he is either just noob, or it could be he read BKEXE as scum (like many people are now) but just before a lot of people had the chance to. Finally, I have to point this out. Because I think drwiggl3s is lying. On June 30 2012 12:14 drwiggl3s wrote: Hi all. First game + first post playing mafia so bare with me. On July 01 2012 05:13 drwiggl3s wrote: I don't know about you guys, but I did a lot of lurking here before playing. drwiggl3s makes sure to tell us it's his first game, but then his only post of substance is describing why BKE looks a little scummier because people are SOFT DEFENDING BKE. That's not a "This is my first day cycle playing mafia" thought in my mind. That's not my thought process in the first thing I ever post. Either casualman is lying about not being a smurf, or casualman got fed that reasoning by scumbuddies. I actually lean towards the former, because casualman created his account 5/1/2012. Fresh account + "Oh I'm a newb, bear with me" + comments about soft defense = lying about being new in my mind.As for other players: I find many people are soft defending BKEXE and in their posts trying to put suspicion onto others (with little reason). I see these as scummy moves. tl;dr
I am currently voting mK. I am alright with my vote on mK. But the one player I'd absolutely be willing to swap to, or to try and get others to swap to, is drwiggl3s | ||
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austinmcc
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In Kurumispeak, the | ||
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austinmcc
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Right now we're 7/7/7 on mK, BKE, FT. mK first to 7 I believe. I do not want to lynch BKE, and I don't like how even the votes on those 3 are. Also marv, that "resistance" doesn't mean much to me. 2/3 of the people you named are now voting FT, when they could have held votes on mK and gotten him lynched without looking bad for it. Your resistors are 2/7 of the vote on FT, and right now basically make him a possible lynch when he didn't have to be. | ||
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austinmcc
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Nobody's commented on drwiggl3s but you, however I don't think they're resisting his lynch. I'm on there with a countercase, but if you look at the timestamps I was writing up wiggl3s while you mentioned FT. I agree that FT doesn't look good, but you're making too much of any resistance to his lynch. | ||
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We arrived at a lynch the moment the first vote was cast. I'm not saying there was NO resistance VE. There wasn't enough resistance to think "Ah, this is FT's scumbuddies trying to keep him from getting lynched." Rather than make a big post, here's ET, who "resisted" the FT lynch: On July 02 2012 06:26 EchelonTee wrote: Foxtrot and kthez look bad. That's from hours ago. In fact, that's from before marv was in the game. If you check his posts, there's NO resistance from ET to the FT lynch. Just be careful with how much resistance you think there was. | ||
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On July 02 2012 07:46 austinmcc wrote: My vote is currently on mK. However, for anyone uncomfortable with their current lynch candidate, I'd suggest taking a look at drwiggl3s. Seriously. The Good Doctor's filter is the following: (1) As has been mentioned, the OP had the "role name" bit, and we can assume if scum got a VT fakeclaim it had the same text. Role name wasn't indicative of mK's alignment, not indicative of the Good Doctor's alignment either. (2) The ol' ninja vote BKE. (3) Nine hours later Stop and read that third post. Please. The only post of any substance. The Good Doctor thought BKE looked scummy, but didn't mention that and didn't vote for BKE. However, after CASUALMAN of all people voted for BKE, BKE and Mattchew voted for casualman with little explanation. This makes BKE scum in drwiggl3s head. Here is how casualman voted, by the way:Either casualman is trolling and trolling hard, or casualman just dropped a vote that legitimately should make every go "Wtf is this?" That's a legitimate response to casualman's comment and vote. BKE's wtf is this vote for casualman is the tipping point that makes drwiggl3s read BKE as scummy and vote him, which is a terrible reason given casualman's post and vote. I don't necessarily read casualman as scummy yet, but drwiggl3s also drops a little explanation for why casualman dropped his stupid post. What is this? Seriously. What is this? Everyone reads casulman's post as trolling or stupidity, and here is drwiggl3s trying to defend another player's nonsense post without prompting. WHY is he doing this? Moreover, how in the world do you get "He might be new or he might have read BKE scummy before others did" out of casualman's post? Finally, I have to point this out. Because I think drwiggl3s is lying. I don't know about you guys, but I did a lot of lurking here before playing. drwiggl3s makes sure to tell us it's his first game, but then his only post of substance is describing why BKE looks a little scummier because people are SOFT DEFENDING BKE. That's not a "This is my first day cycle playing mafia" thought in my mind. That's not my thought process in the first thing I ever post. Either casualman is lying about not being a smurf, or casualman got fed that reasoning by scumbuddies. I actually lean towards the former, because casualman created his account 5/1/2012. Fresh account + "Oh I'm a newb, bear with me" + comments about soft defense = lying about being new in my mind. ***NEW ADDED POINT*** - anyone who thinks that drwiggl3s is ACTUALLY new is going to have to be convinced that him saying he's new outweighs the soft defense reference as well as the fact that he just happened to name himself drwiggl3s and joined mrwiggles' game. Does the naming thing not make others think smurf over new player? tl;dr
I am currently voting mK. I am alright with my vote on mK. But the one player I'd absolutely be willing to swap to, or to try and get others to swap to, is drwiggl3s Shiaopi and solstice, how do you guys read drwiggl3s. Both D1 and overall, if you can separate those two things. Also, for marv, I'd like for you to take another look at his D1. Now that you are no longer pushing foxtrot, do you still read wiggl3s the same way? | ||
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austinmcc
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On July 02 2012 22:26 marvellosity wrote: austin, I don't particularly want to bash another player. He seems to have spectacular fails in logical and correct thinking. Other than your "I don't think he's new point" can you particularly tell me why this is bad scummy as opposed to just bad townie? + Show Spoiler + On July 02 2012 20:24 marvellosity wrote: The story of the puppy Vivax There was once a cute little puppy called Vivax. And he lived with his kind and benevolent owner, Mr. marvellosity. One fine summer's day, marvellosity had invited over some friends over for a light lunch with champagne and strawberries. But the cute little puppy Vivax was barking and running around annoying all the guests. "What is wrong with him?" ShiaoPi asked, concerned. "He wants another biscuit," answered marvellosity. "But if I were to give him another, he would get indigestion. I try to explain to the poor pup, but alas he does not understand as he is only a puppy." "That is a shame," nodded Acrofales, knowingly. Vivax the puppy was getting more and more wound up as he barked at people and no-one would listen. Why could he not have another biscuit? What kind of unnatural cruelty was denying him one of the great pleasures of puppy life? It seems he had forgotten that he had already had a biscuit, the poor pup. Eventually the little pup lost the plot, and with his little tail and ears flying, charged at his loving owner, marvellosity, barking and yelping, paws racing. marvellosity merely smiled, and put his finger against poor pup Vivax's forehead, watching him running on the spot to no avail. Eventually marvellosity picked poor pup Vivax up by the scruff of his neck, and put him in his cage. Hopefully the pup would be calmer after he slept a little. The End Before I answer your question, I want to make sure. You still read drwiggl3s as bad townie? You think he is a new player and has poor logic? | ||
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Going to rely on the time-honored tradition of "I asked you first" here. | ||
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The reasoning on why his D1 play is bad scum as opposed to bad town is relatively weak. Going to try not to stretch it. But I don't think there are good reasons for finding him to be bad townie on D1 either. My scummy read on him DOES rely somewhat on me thinking he's not new. It sounds like you're saying that. If so, you either think he's new and just happened to name himself drwiggl3s in order to start playing in mrwiggles' game, and using terms like soft defense. If you have changed your mind and think he's smurfing, then he's lied about being new. While smurfs are all lying about their identities in a way, that's a step above and beyond. Other than that, he's clearly read the thread. He brings up little posts like mattchew's list, my mention before deadline that the vote was 7/7/7, couple other things. And the reason he finally comes back and explains his ninja vote is On July 01 2012 05:13 drwiggl3s wrote: Ok since some people asked, here's what I'm thinking. Look at the intervening hours between his vote (pg 15) and explanation (pg 20). Here are the references to drwiggl3s in that time period: On June 30 2012 18:42 Acrofales wrote: As Mattchew put it so succinctly: what the hell is this? (austinmcc note: Mattchew did not reference drwiggl3s in the intervening hours, this just references mattchew's earlier comment on casualman's vote, which drwiggl3s uses later in his explanation for his BKE vote) On July 01 2012 00:05 Acrofales wrote: Btw, I disagree on the reasoning. Something as dumb as casualman (and later drwiggles) have done is a dumbtell, not a scumtell. I am not sure what to make of it, which is why I have a bad feeling about the BKE bandwagon either way and am waiting for BKE, casualman and drwiggles to explain themselves. On July 01 2012 00:28 ShiaoPi wrote: Those posts have generally been snipped to just the wiggl3s mentions. He's not the main topic of conversation. There's a lot going on in those 5 pages. He gets mentioned 3 times in passing, by 2 players only, and in 2 of those mentions it's part of a list. Yet he was reading closely enough to see that he was mentioned and respond.Well you raise some good points on mkmkmk, filter size is really small though and he should pop by to post something more, before I would judge him. Generally said, activity could really use a bump :O I think there are still a bunch of players who have not posted yet, also BKE, casualman mind coming back to answer questions? Add drwiggles to that list, dropping a vote without reason and disappearing afterwards is baaaad. - His explanation for his vote is still bad. Very bad. Yes, that doesn't mean bad scummy - He doesn't comment on anything else in the thread when he explains his vote. His purpose for his only substantive post D1 is to explain his ninja vote, nothing more. Like he needed to get that done, but couldn't be bothered to actually play mafia. Look at part of his explanation On July 01 2012 05:13 drwiggl3s wrote: He's read. He finds some people scummy. He doesn't just come out and say who.As for other players: I find many people are soft defending BKEXE and in their posts trying to put suspicion onto others (with little reason). I see these as scummy moves. - In his D1 wrapup and all his comments last night, he never mentions my post on him. He read close enough to see my 7/7/7 comment, to see that people mentioned him, but either didn't read a sizeable post on himself or didn't address it. Unsure whether I read this as scummy, but if I'm new and I'm town, I don't want anyone suspicious of me. I know overreaction is scummy, but complete nonreaction from a new townie isn't something I'd expect either. | ||
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austinmcc
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The paranoid version of his play since the lynch is that he was told to get more active and look like dumb town. I'm not on that train of thought yet. He pushes his bad logic so hard that he gets ET, who really wants to engage in discussion with people at this time, to just shrug him off and add him to a personal ignore list. What's one way to dodge pressure that might be coming your way once people aren't focused on foxtrot? Drop a bunch of nonsense and get people to ignore you entirely. The non-paranoid take on his play since the lynch is that it's bad. There are the comments on Mattchew, the dialogue with ET. One thing that caught my attention was: On July 02 2012 15:17 drwiggl3s wrote: Somehow (I have no clue how his posts were read as scum), people hint and drop Fox's name as a possible scum candidate. After testing the waters, a bandwagon is launched on him and it get's the votes. This lynch not only killed a fellow town, but it also netted 0 information on who else could be scum. On July 02 2012 16:01 drwiggl3s wrote: Foxtrot by all means did NOT deserve the noose he got. He posted late, and said sorry for being busy. Is that an obvious "scum post"? Yes. So obvious that any scum with any sense would NOT post it. Any read on him being scum tells more about the person pointing fingers than it does on Foxtrot himself. No intervening posts, both posts snipped down a little. In the first, drwiggl3s has no clue how Foxtrot's posts were read as scum. In the second, Foxtrot's post was "an obvious 'scum post.'" He concludes that it was too obvious for scum to make, which may be HIS reasoning for why Foxtrot's post wasn't scummy, but he CANNOT have "no clue" why Foxtrot's post was read as scummy if he thinks it was too scummy to be scummy. I key in more on those two posts than I do on the other stuff. Overall, bad play isn't alignment indicative. His play since the lynch isn't particularly alignment-indicative for me. I don't love those two posts, but nothing he's done since makes me lean townier or scummier on him. shiaopi and solstice, I'd still like y'all's thoughts on wiggl3s. | ||
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I don't think it's a great idea to push someone that has a scum read on you if you're scum and know them to be town. At the same time, after foxtrotter was added to that post, your list is 6 players long. There's probably at least a scum or two on it. Probably more townies on it than just foxtrotter. If you died, I wouldn't immediately sheep that list, and I don't think others would either. Moreover, say we lynched you tomorrow. That's 2 days down, you flip town. It would take an additional 5 game days to lynch down that list if we never got distracted at all. So I think the illogical side of pushing for your lynch is lessened by the fact that your list doesn't just accuse drwiggl3s by his lonesome, and you didn't push him after that post. A big list like that means scumwiggl3s would still have plenty of room to hide even if you flip town. So I'm of a mixed mind. I think the question's good and the simple answer does fall in the favor of wiggl3s. Attempts at Kurumi interpretation! + Show Spoiler + Kurumi can (maybe) correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm interpreting this as town reads on : Maju + Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 05:04 Kurumi wrote: Marie was the wife of Albert. They had two children: Jules and Ursule. They loved both equally. Then shadows came and end all things. Although ymmv on whether Kurumi loves them or whether shadows come and end them ShiaoPi+ Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 05:04 Kurumi wrote: Over time, my husband will desire me less sexually, but he will always enjoy my pies. . . . I am holding a pin to make pies. Pies are delicious. NoSmurfHere+ Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 05:23 Kurumi wrote: Hesitant town read?The gnome is not the usual gnome but likes to work. Fine colleague I say. A more obvious scum read on ghost...I think?+ Show Spoiler + On July 02 2012 21:00 Kurumi wrote: There was also a Marv quote and a Twelve quote in the original post aboveI shall leave this here for you to think about it. You are terrible, terrible detectives. On July 03 2012 05:23 Kurumi wrote: Thirteen starts and ends the order. I am fixing the telephone lines. The gnome is not the usual gnome but likes to work. Fine colleague I say. Vladimir was sent by the Soviet Union to conquer the skies. Poopy Joe died too soon. Marie Skłodowska-Curie is awesome. I am collapsing. I am seeing ghosts. Ghosts are dangerous. Is there a ghost buster on the phone line? It is not working. I am fixing the telephone lines. The gnome is not the usual gnome but likes to work. Fine colleague I say. Vladimir was sent by the Soviet Union to conquer the skies. Poopy Joe died too soon. Marie Skłodowska-Curie is awesome. I am collapsing. I am seeing ghosts. Ghosts are dangerous. Yes, ghosts are bad. Scientists have labelled him. He needs to get sweet lollipop of candy land chocolate flavour banana pie ring. I think I am leaking. Agent Gruller inout. | ||
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I like his pushback against marv on the FT vote. Why would scum vivax not be content there? mK was a mislynch, FT was a mislynch, why bother bringing up Grush when he can sit on mK or FT knowing they flip town, or sit on BKE without worry that his vote looks all that odd. VE, thoughts on his D1 vote concerns? Don't particularly love the interactions with BM. Don't know why he'd support BM's cases on VE and acro, how can you support a case that basically calls 2-3 (BKX started popping into BM's stuff) people scum within the first little bit of D1? Don't love this question On July 01 2012 00:02 Vivax wrote: VE, why would you support a bandwagon on BM without posting the reasons for it? BM had been mentioned, but there was a single vote on BM at this point. And you're right, he keeps obliquely referencing BM, in that question and in his "regarding" post, without really talking about BM. Overall, I'm getting mixed signals, not enough for me to vote him yet, still need to look at others. Also, and I'm spoilering this because I may have terrible meta analysis and meta analysis on a newer player is PROBABLY not very valuable, but: + Show Spoiler + Did a quick read of Vivax's filters in Newbie XV and Newbie XVIII , townie in both. A few basic observations:
I don't love how he seems to be more focused this game compared to newbie games. Less larger posts. Less posts addressing lots of recent happenings. Not confident enough in my meta abilities or meta on a first full-size game to rely on this though. And while he's not calling out oodles of people in single posts, he did manage to find Mandalor, BKE, Marv, Acro, VE all scummy. | ||
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He posts about grush when FT has 3 votes. mKmK 10 / BKE 7 / FT 3 when Vivax spoke up. Sentiment in the thread had started to change, so it's not like he couldn't anticipate more coming, but we had less than 1:30 left and needed 5 more votes to get swapped at a minimum. The way he defends him is also less calling FT town, and more asking why Marv has singed out FT, when similar lynches are available. I'm okay with Marv's answer that the read comes from more than just the text itself, but I think Vivax's question is one that townies should have been asking. I know I didn't feel fully comfortable with why we swapped so hard. Sure, it could be to gain some cred, but it could also be concern over a really hard push on a guy for reasons that can't really be articulated. | ||
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austinmcc
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So many people look a little scummy, but right now I'm on board with ET as an option. Not reading thread - On July 03 2012 10:38 EchelonTee wrote: So far, hasn't made the promised posts - that's 2 vig shots? no claims? On July 03 2012 23:01 EchelonTee wrote: Plus, after his whole exchange with drwiggl3s, who he concludes just has poor logic, ET NEVER steps in to defend drwiggl3s. I know at least a few people dropped in to say they read wiggl3s as bad town. ET never came back to do so, despite being around at points throughout the night. Going to make a few posts on who I think is scum, following. Also, NSH. I know you're on ShiaoPi, and I've got to say that I'm reading him scum as now. In our newbie games together, I felt like we had the exact same thought processes. We had similar reads in XIII, and in XV we both read one scum member as townie and were his only defenders until I switched last moment. I asked him about his read on drwiggl3s to see if we matched up there, and I didn't love his answer there, nor his being on BKE early. So at least this far, I've got a scumread on him but it's based on us not agreeing, which doesn't feel like very strong evidence. | ||
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Right now, I'm of town minds on him. Pointing towards scum - He finds NSH suspicious because he thinks NSH started a bandwagon on FT as an alternative to BKE. BUT, he found FT scummy himself. So either he's got awful reasoning for being suspicious of NSH (I think he started a bandwagon on a guy that I found scummy), or he's got no decent explanation for his vote swap. Pointing towards town - You guys have read his filter. Some posts in there just don't make any sense at all, or state things incorrectly. Go read his post about NSH being a ringlead and apparently rasta being his scumbuddy. + Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 06:43 Twelve wrote: I'm hesitant to post this,but I have a feeling I may be killed tonight, and a REALLY strong feeling NoSmurfHere WILL NOT be Mafia killed tonight. I made a list of people who jumped on the mKmKmK lynch as I felt it was just an attempt of mafia to get a townie lurker lynched. As I went through the list of names using their filters, I came to some tentative conclusions. My current read is that if there is a Ringleader in this game (godfather), it is NoSmurfHere. + Show Spoiler + NoSmurfHere New Zealand. July 01 2012 10:25 Also your belief in "proof" probably suggests you shouldn't be playing mafia, given that most accurate reads are not based on anything anywhere close to proof. I feel he may be breadcrumbing for a detective role check. It was just a note next to his name when I Look at the interaction between NoSmurfHere and rastaban. After NoSmurfHere starts the bandwagon against mKmKmK(a lurker lynch I really didn't agree with), he seems very interested in a role claim from NoSmurfHere, perhaps trying to get a detective to waste a night and make a really dangerous "confirmed towny". + Show Spoiler + On July 01 2012 00:53 rastaban wrote: Yeah let's not anger the host. The other option is he is a blue acting strangely to it, but I am sure Mafia already thought of this if he isn't on their team so he is outed regardless of alignment. I think this is the easy and probably accurate lynch for today, so we should be thinking about pushing for a role claim from him. I may be reaching, but again, I think I may wake up dead and wanted to get my thoughts out there. 12's thoughts here just don't make any sense to me. Like not townie, not scummy, just really misreading what happened. His post says that NSH wanted a ... role claim from himself? In order to get DT checked? Or something? Like, this is spectacularly good nonsense if it's crafted to make him look too odd to get lynched. 12, can you explain your theory here? Why did you think NSH was a godfather? Who was trying to get a role claim from who and how were they trying to waste DT checks? You posted that your theory couldn't be true, but I'd appreciate it if you'd just walk us through exactly what your theory was. Then he says NSH started the FT bandwagon. Now his most recent post On July 05 2012 03:58 Twelve wrote: Complete misunderstanding of how mafia's KP works.Waste of a lynch guys. Focus on people who are pushing for me. Or enjoy the 6 mafia kps tonight. I do want to note that I don't put much stock on this last post. Yes, he's wrong about mafia KP. Either he's legitimately wrong, or he was told that one great way to take pressure off himself would be to act like he didn't understand how mafia team mechanics worked. That's the perfect thing to be wrong about if, you know, you're getting seriously pressured today because people have a scumread on you. You guys that are voting for him, do you think he's just pretending/being told to post like he doesn't understand what's going on? | ||
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Still can't reconcile 12's earlier nonsense with scum. Maybe it's a great tactic to get pushed aside and not be considered for a lynch, but if that was the plan it's failed miserably. I assume people are gone and we can't get traction on another lynch, but I could vote ShiaoPi or Katina atm. ShiaoPi I mentioned before, it's an odd read mainly based on the fact that we haven't agreed on some of our reads this game. Katina got some pressure early this cycle. It was her birthday, so to some extent the lack of filter is explained by that. When she returned, she addressed the pressure by getting active for a moment. After the pressure died down on her though, look at some of the posts from later in the day: On July 05 2012 03:54 Katina wrote: I don't think that Twelve is Mafia. From what I have seem from his filter he explains himself and his actions. He has been concise in explaining his actions. One thing I don't like though is he doesn't seem to be doing a lot of analysis. On July 05 2012 04:10 Katina wrote: (austinmcc note: this is addressing Vivax) I'm looking over his filter and seeing that he has a decent amount of posts. The contents of his posts seems like they are sincere. He gives his opinions and looks like he is putting effort into scum hunting. For now I would say town until I see something that erks me. Just some very bland reasoning. Broad statements that look like they give reads, but they're kind of...airy? 12 has concisely explained himself and his actions (I disagree with her here). Vivax has been sincere, posted a decent amount, given opinions, and seems to be putting effort into scum hunting. This just feels...off. Like they're the read equivalents of someone trying to convince you they can communicate with the dead by throwing out really broad statements and letting your mind fill in the blanks for them. Sorry Katina. While I appreciate your cookie, with ET out of the running for tonight my vote's going on you. | ||
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Lot of late movement here, right as I was planning on switching away from ET and seeing how the replacement situation resolved itself. I stayed on ET to see what would happen, and because I read him as scummy and was still split on 12. Got jumpy, especially when NSH's reasoning was sheeping acro, and so I figured better to lynch the guy town had previously chosen and let the ET situation resolve itself. | ||
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Heck, I pushed back against VE on vivax and I voted ET over 12. So I don't even disagree with those reads really. | ||
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On July 05 2012 10:08 NoSmurfHere wrote: My bad. I shouldn't have switched. I knew Adam was scum too LOL. Let's kill grush, Twelve, ShiaoPi. Doing some more rereading Has your read on Katina changed? | ||
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On July 05 2012 10:39 NoSmurfHere wrote: However the content of her contributions is pretty useless. | ||
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On July 05 2012 01:41 Katina wrote: austin gets a cookie for that point against ET. I'm curious to see if ET steps up and either posts his case or explains why he hasn't presented it yet. You had him town. Then I got a cookie, and it looked like you were going to be suspicious of ET if he didn't 'splain himself. | ||
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On July 06 2012 02:02 BroodKingEXE wrote: Why the surprise? You should be happy with an ET lynch. In fact you pushed against a 12 lynch in order for another lynch (I assume ET). On another note, I feel Vivax was the person who started the idea and austin was the person that pulled it through. Based off my previous suspicions and the way the votes went down, I'd say Vivax was most likely to be scum. He pushed ET for a while but never had the confidence to put a vote in. Although he was the first to put in a vote he was pretty hesitant about it until the was more confirmation in the thread. Vivax's post on how info could be drawn makes more sense to kill twelve. I should be happy with an ET lynch, yes. Actually, hold up. In the interest of consolidating posts, I'm going to combine this with another I was making. I pushed against a 12 lynch during the day, and pushed for ET. Thought thread sentiment was heavily toward lynching 12. All times KST/TL time 1:30 - I vote ET. Reasoning in thread - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 01:30 austinmcc wrote: Post written quickly, may be illegible. So many people look a little scummy, but right now I'm on board with ET as an option. Not reading thread - So far, hasn't made the promised posts - Plus, after his whole exchange with drwiggl3s, who he concludes just has poor logic, ET NEVER steps in to defend drwiggl3s. I know at least a few people dropped in to say they read wiggl3s as bad town. ET never came back to do so, despite being around at points throughout the night. 1:30 - 4:14 - ShiaoPi unvotes Hyaach. Grush unvotes Vivax, votes 12. BKE, Ghost, Mandalor vote 12. ShiaoPi reasoning - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 02:21 ShiaoPi wrote: Some thoughts after I caught up, @hyaach: BKE also asked you, and you did respond with that quote of "you have to ask to get a case". Guess you don't like him either. Reading through your recent posts I want to thank you for (finally) contributing thoughts which make sense and generally stepping up your activity. You are off my suspectlist for now. ##unvote @Katina: I do not like wasting a lynch on a troll. Better to shoot him or blow him up. Good to see you unlurking and contributing. I'll probably reread mandalor now. @Twelve: Same reasoning about casualman as with Katina, Is he your strongest scumread right now? Regarding ET, I did not play any games with him so I don't know about his meta, but it is unsettling that he vanished after being one of the more active persons beforehand. Can somebody link me some games of him? Grush Reasoning - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 02:21 grush57 wrote: YES LETS SHEEP A USELESS PLAYER THAT WILL GIVE US TOWNIES NO INFO AND WASTE A WHOLE CYCLE. U CRAY CRAY. oR MAYBE YOUR SCUM. HMM HMMHMHMHMHMMHMHMHMHMHMHMHMHMMHMHMHMHMHMHMHMH All you have to think, and scum will fall! ##Unvote: Vivax ##Vote: Twelve BKE reasoning - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 03:07 BroodKingEXE wrote: Well Twelve my question hasn't been answered directly, and you haven't disproved my casual is TL troll theory so... ##Unvote ##Vote: Twelve Ghost reasoning - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 03:29 ghost_403 wrote: I find the gap in him posting his Foxtrotter vote and him expalining his Foxtrotter vote... disconcerting. If missing the deadline really was his main concern there, why wouldn't you immediately post after the flip "Well, shit. I know him IRL, and he posted scummy so I voted for him, lol, my bad"? Instead, he waits for people to make a big deal about it. His actions there were of the "too scummy to be scum" variety, but maybe he's just bad scum? That and all the stuff Acro said. ##vote twelve I want to hear why he thinks we should be lynching casualman. His filter doesn't really give a good reason for it. I want to hear Katina's thoughts on Twelve. Also, where's Majujuju been? He dropped in, voted 12 and has been gone ever since. Mandalor reasoning - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 05:09 Mandalor wrote: Ninjavote? I explained I'd go for either Katina or Twelve. Doesn't look like Katina will gain enough votes so I went for Twelve. 6:58 - Wiggles posts that ET has asked to withdraw - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 06:58 Mr. Wiggles wrote: EchelonTee has asked to withdraw from the game. I am currently looking for a replacement. If you know one, please let them know of the opening. 7:13 - Vivax unvotes ET, votes 12 again - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 07:12 Vivax wrote: ET's replacement should be bombarded with accusations once and if one joins. For now back to Twelve since I don't wanna risk ET getting lynched when he could be modkilled. I really hope he doesn't flip town. 8:52 - Voting summary in vote thread has Twelve with 10 votes, ET with 4 votes. ***This is why I was surprised BKE, to answer your question in all of this. Twelve had 10 out of 17 total votes. Next highest vote getter was ET with 4. ET had asked for a replacement, which explains his absence. Did not expect a swap to ET given that with the replacement post, he basically looked better than before. Still felt Twelve was town, however. See my filter for posts asking Twelve to explain his conspiracy theory better, asking people how they dealt with some of Twelve's posts and maintained scum reads. We have just over an hour until lynch, thread sentiment against Twelve, expecting him to get lynched*** 9:21 - Vivax unvotes 12, votes ET - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 09:21 Vivax wrote: -.- Ok, I'll vote ET again. If anyone believes in twelve, switch too. Need 4 votes I think. 9:24 - 9:40 - Kurumi questions 12 in thread. Unvotes 12, votes ET - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 09:24 Kurumi wrote: Number person, is the echo-device a bad detective? On July 05 2012 09:29 Kurumi wrote: Please, number person, do a scout promise that you are a good detective and getting rid of the echo-device benefits us. On July 05 2012 09:30 Twelve wrote: scouts honor? scross my heart hope to die? On July 05 2012 09:32 Twelve wrote: EBWOP Scouts honor! Pinky swear etc, I'm a good detective Kurumi! dont lynch me! On July 05 2012 09:34 Kurumi wrote: Please imagine you have an ability to flip someone right here, right now. Who would it be? On July 05 2012 09:34 Twelve wrote: BroodKingExe On July 05 2012 09:39 Twelve wrote: I actually think Katina is town, if he were scum he would likely just let me get lynched, but he actually sticks up for me  On July 05 2012 09:40 Kurumi wrote: I like your choice. I am moving my vote now. Please reread the thread/get some guides running fast so we can stop discussing you as a scum candidate. I believe in your newbieness. ***It's during this exchange that I make that post you referenced. I'm surprised that people are switching to ET. We're like 30 minutes to lynch to at this point. People have been on 12 all day. Wiggles told us hours ago that ET asked for a replacement. Vivax was on ET, then 12, then ET again close to deadline. That swap, and Kurumi popping up to type real sentences, confuse me.*** 9:56 - 9:58 - At 9:56, NSH unvotes 12 and votes ET. Reasoning given at 9:58 - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 09:58 NoSmurfHere wrote: I've switched my vote upon seeing the voter list and that Acro switched as well. I trust his judgment as I've been afk. Reading now ***Wiggles posts his final vote count at 9:57. I've got normal and voting threads up, but was mainly watching the normal thread to see if anyone would swap. Did not see NSH's post in normal thread until 9:58, 2 minutes after his swap and 1 minute after Wiggles' final vote count. I get worried about the swaps to ET, start feeling wrong about it. Try to unvote ET and vote 12, but it's too late. I post at 10:00, final vote count at 9:57*** So, my surprise is the number of late vote swaps. NSH's reasoning for his swap. The timing at the very end. Vivax's hopping back and forth. The fact that thread sentiment genuinely seemed to be against 12 most of the cycle, with the same counterpoints coming back - his weird conspiracy theory mainly. Yet votes swap to ET after we know he's going to be modkilled or replaced. I almost swapped off him to Katina just because I figured ET was a wasted vote at that point, but stayed around because I figured Katina wasn't getting lynched. Shouldn't have done so. But my thought process is "ET replaced/modkilled, better move to someone else," whereas others had the opposite thought, and moved TO ET after knowing he was going to be replaced/modkilled. Now hold up, because I want to check something and make another, related, post (Not trying to spam, but this was general timeline and the next is focused) | ||
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23:43 - Votes Katina - + Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 23:42 Acrofales wrote: Hrmmm, I disagree. I don't know when she started making decent sensible cases and pushing her reads in Jubjub, but she has not done that yet here. I guess the frivolous nonsense is more like jubjub than like MTG, but I don't get the feeling she's putting effort into scumhunting this game (see her D1 reason, and later defense of her BKE vote), whereas she was clearly doing that in jubjub. ##vote katina ***For the next 6 hours or so, Acro has two targets: Katina and Vivax. He was on Vivax a lot D1 and overnight, and just kept bringing those two up. + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 03:01 Acrofales wrote: I think the lynch should be between Vivax and Katina. On July 04 2012 03:07 Acrofales wrote: Oh, and just in case it's not clear from my vote, I currently favour Katina over Vivax. 6:01 - 6:03 - Acro swaps from Katina to Twelve - + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 06:01 Acrofales wrote: Okay. I've read Twelve's filter and some of the points brought up about him. I now have a top 3 people I want to lynch. Twelve has some stuff that reads like scum. Compilation of the cases: I don't know why Mattchew is making connection cases based on not-yet-flipped people, but of the two I think Twelve is more likely to flip scum and I think this case sums up his D1 behaviour. Twelve's defense consists mainly of "it was a joke" and some discussion about what a bandwagon is, which seemed okay when I hadn't read his filter and only saw the case in a list of scum. Now I'm no longer convinced. + Show Spoiler [Twelve's defense] + On July 02 2012 04:55 Twelve wrote: @Mattchew haha where to start... My first post that you quote was from before the game even started, so it probably shouldn't be taken to seriously. I simply don't know anyone here and was trying to start a conversation. The fact that you see a contradiction is also puzzling I can sort of see how it could be misinterpreted that I was saying "I am all for the hatred of bandwagons" but thats not what I was saying. In fact I was saying the opposite, I was asking to be clued in so I could join a bandwagon, but this was largely a joke. Suffice to say, anything I said before the game officially started probably shouldn't concern town too much. I do take issue with your use of the word band wagon though, upon reading the thread I found both BKE and Kurumi extremely suspicious, regardless of other players posts, and made my thoughts known. BKE says alot while conveying extremely little actual information, appearing to be helpful but really just mixing the pot. Kurumi writes long winded, somewhat schizophrenic sounding poems to his co-workers that are about as informative as a fortune cookie. I don't to see a vote count or FOS: BKE FOS:Kurumi for my brain to begin forming conclusions. As for the cutesy yuck bit, he seemed pretty angry that I would vote in the vote in the voting thread without warning him, so I tried to keep things light (read: I wrote something much ruder but thought better of it and decided to kill him with niceness :D)As far as calling out casualman, I tried very hard to think of any strategic reason a town would vote for themselves and I could think of none. I had the same issue with VE voting for himself, but voted unvoted in the same post, sort of like lowering and raising a supply depot while you wait for your rax to build i guess, so I really don't have a problem with it going under the radar. Bugs suggested this about his apeshit behaviour at night: I don't really see a reason why a townie would call someone godfather. Scum pushing a townie, or scum distancing himself from an actual godfather are both better explanations. I seem to remember there being another case against Twelve which was the one that actually made him blip on my scumdar, but I cannot find it. Anyway, yeah. I'm still not completely sure about Vivax, Katina has gone awol again. Lets kill Twelve. ##unvote ##vote Twelve ***Acro stays on Twelve for a while. Continues referencing Katina/Vivax in posts. Between wanting to lynch Vivax or Katina and now, he's somehow unsure on Vivax - + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 21:33 Acrofales wrote: Twelve: scum. I have my vote on him. I suggest you do the same. ShiaoPi: uncomfortable lynching him for reasons stated above. Katina: grouped with ET for highest probable veteran to be scum. I actually think her case on Mandalor has merit. But her best read is on a lurker, which is kind of a cop-out for a veteran. She was under pressure, came in and made a complete throwaway case on casualman, is not pushing the case and has probably gone off to lalaland again. If someone with a better metaread can point me in the right direction I will sheep. So far Mattchew and VE have town reads and Bugs and ghost have a scum read from meta. I was leaning scum based on the meta. Mattchew shot that down without explaining. Still waiting to hear why Katina is playing to her town meta from people with more playtime with her (particularly from Mattchew) before deciding on her. It seems clear that we're not going to get anything useful out of her today. Vivax: still unsure on what the hell he is. Uncomfortable with lynching him at the moment 3:02 - Reinforcement of his position on Twelve, after some back and forth with Vivax. Notes that he has been getting a scummier feeling on ET because of lack of defense/lack of scumhunting - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 03:02 Acrofales wrote: I downright disagree on your policy, but the list you come up with corresponds to mine. I don't like a grush lynch, but it's mainly meta (he's playing the same as in space station where I blew him up and he flipped town). Other people have referenced LV and I agree that there he played far more actively. No clue how to read him and it seems like a coinflip. I have him with kurumi, casualman, majuju and adam: I'd bet my life that there's scum in that list, but fucked if I know how many or which ones. If there's still a vig with bullets he should be shooting into this list, though. DT should also be checking these, because I have given up trying to get a read from their posts. I actually find your whole logic on the policy completely topsy turvy and it also doesn't agree with your conclusions. Twelve, Katina and ET all have filters that are readable. They can be analyzed. We can analyze the cases made against them too. That gives us information to work with to unravel the rest of the team. Eventually we'll have to deal with the lurker team, but with, hopefully, some aid from vigis and DTs we won't have to lynch all six of them (we don't have time anyway). Now onto scumhunting: ET and Katina are the only two who have changed since last we chatted. Katina is here and posting. She seems unconcerned about getting lynched, which is more townie than scum. Then again, I was just told in SSB that reactions are the easiest thing to fake for scum. Still on the fence. ET has steadily been rising. The more I read his filter the more I see reasons for scum to post the way he does and the less it appears to be townie. His utter lack of defense against the cases raised against him, and his failure to do any scumhunting today despite the promise are making him look scummier every time I look at it. But Twelve is a better lynch, imho. There are just too many contradictions and coincidences in his filter. #ITEM No. 1 I'm not feeling the casualman lynch as a scum lynch. I hate associative cases before we flip someone, but with Katina and Twelve both pushing casualman it just feels like the easy townie that is being thrown in front of the truck by the scumteam. I also don't buy his "most likely scum lynch": it's a coinflip. No. The most likely scumflip is Twelve. #ITEM No. 2 I had quoted Mattchew's case mainly for its second point, which was the HORRID reasoning around his BKE vote. The first point seemed adequately explained by s0lstice as Mattchew failing reading comprehension, but the reasoning around Twelve's vote was terrible and Mattchew called him out on it. However, that doesn't really matter. The problem is with the bolded part in the reply. This reads to me like a scum who had dodged a bullet. Unfortunately for Twelve, Mafia doesn't work like that and now Mattchew's read is gaining traction. He panicked and tried to wave it off. Yes, the first part of the case was crap, but the second point was valid, and still is. Dismissing half the post as bullshit doesn't make the other half bullshit too. ITEM No. 3 His night behaviour. How the hell do you go from "he's scum" to "he's the godfather" without some kind of prior knowledge. I don't get it and no matter how many times Twelve tells me it was a "noobie mistake" I still won't get it. In closing, Twelve is scum and should die for his sins. ##vote Twelve for reinforcement, my vote is already in the right spot 4:30 - 6:00 - Interaction between Vivax and Acro On July 05 2012 04:39 Acrofales wrote: Actually no. I already thought about it. I feel good on Twelve. On July 05 2012 04:39 Acrofales wrote: But tell me why anyway. I want to hear more of your reasoning. On July 05 2012 04:43 Vivax wrote: Cause Twelve suspected Bugs, who wasn't under pressure at the time, and rastaban. The guy who got killed by mafia. I wouldn't understand the actions from a scum point of view. There's a lot of talk about ET already. Take the way he tries to influence bandwagons without reads. On July 05 2012 04:45 Vivax wrote: It's a pretty small piece of evidence in a filter that mostly paints a bad light on him. I'd still vote for him if I didn't see it. On July 05 2012 05:19 Acrofales wrote: I have to say that I missed that bit from Twelve. Let me take another look, it could be a mistake, but you're right, there's something wonky there. In fact, it's the same reason why I started to think you weren't scum after all, lol. I have to say that twelve's posts are harder to make sense of. It's not so much a case as a conspiracy theory. I'll have to think about it. On July 05 2012 05:50 Acrofales wrote: [/b][/blue]Okay. Gone over the whole passage and it's a giant contradiction. I can't make sense of this. Just gonna post it in case someone else can make sense of the screwball logic that is happening here: First relevant post, when Twelve goes all paranoid theory: + Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 06:43 Twelve wrote: I'm hesitant to post this,but I have a feeling I may be killed tonight, and a REALLY strong feeling NoSmurfHere WILL NOT be Mafia killed tonight. I made a list of people who jumped on the mKmKmK lynch as I felt it was just an attempt of mafia to get a townie lurker lynched. As I went through the list of names using their filters, I came to some tentative conclusions. My current read is that if there is a Ringleader in this game (godfather), it is NoSmurfHere. + Show Spoiler + NoSmurfHere New Zealand. July 01 2012 10:25 Also your belief in "proof" probably suggests you shouldn't be playing mafia, given that most accurate reads are not based on anything anywhere close to proof. I feel he may be breadcrumbing for a detective role check. It was just a note next to his name when I Look at the interaction between NoSmurfHere and rastaban. After NoSmurfHere starts the bandwagon against mKmKmK(a lurker lynch I really didn't agree with), he seems very interested in a role claim from NoSmurfHere, perhaps trying to get a detective to waste a night and make a really dangerous "confirmed towny". + Show Spoiler + On July 01 2012 00:53 rastaban wrote: Yeah let's not anger the host. The other option is he is a blue acting strangely to it, but I am sure Mafia already thought of this if he isn't on their team so he is outed regardless of alignment. I think this is the easy and probably accurate lynch for today, so we should be thinking about pushing for a role claim from him. I may be reaching, but again, I think I may wake up dead and wanted to get my thoughts out there. Is he trying to link Bugs and Rastaban as scum members? He quotes Rastaban talking with EchelonTee about Bugs's VT roleclaim and says he's quoting an exchange between Rastaban and Bugs. At the time, I read this as him saying Rastaban or mK was a town DT who Bugs was trying to poke into checking him at night. I also didn't read Rastaban's post as him saying someone should check Bugs at night, but rather someone should check mK. So this whole thing confused me and all I got from that was "he says bugs is scum, but out-wifoms himself and says he's the godfather". That has two explanations: he's scum and knows bugs will look like town, or he's a townie out-wifoming himself who really thinks bugs is scumslipping his godfather role (as marvellosity seemed to think). What I didn't get from it was the theory of Bugs+Rastaban scumbuddies. The follow-up at daytime: + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 09:39 Twelve wrote: Alright I'm going to try and clarify some things since apparently I didn't explain myself very coherently. On the Foxtrotter swtich - I had just got a scummy read on foxtrotter out of the thread. I checked the voting thread and saw that a large bandwagon had formed on him. When I went to find out why there was such a huge swing of votes towards him, I noticed that I had less then 1 hour to vote. Instead of figuring out exactly how much time I had I just "ninja" switched in both threads. On saying "soooo, i guess i'll shut up :D " - I had just posted a ridiculous conspiracy theory/rant against NoSmurfHere. I still think he is scum, but it was a bad way to present the information. Anyways, pretty much every single thing I wrote turned out to be false. NoSmurfHere cannot be ringleader because BM was the Ringleader. Rastaban cannot be NoSmurfHere's mafia partner because Rastaban turned up green. Once i knew the facts, I felt silly for posting my theory, and offered to shut up. So this could be the fantastic failing of a scumplan and him covering it up. Or it could be a townie explaining how his giant conspiracy theory just failed spectacularly. I think this needs to be sorted out before we lynch Twelve and I am kinda backing down from my case. The rest of his filter is still terrible, but I agree that this whole conspiracy theory into backpedalling is too fucking weird to see from a scum mindset from my point of view. ##unvote for now. ***Acro unvotes Twelve, votes ET*** Of specific note is the post from 3:02. Look at Acro's reads on ET/Twelve
Now look at Acro's later reads on ET/Twelve
Who convinced Acro to change his read? Oh, one of his main suspects during D1 and part of D2, Vivax. The guy he was so suspicious of, but didn't quite want to vote for. And yes, I've defended Vivax and had a townread on him. I'm basically suggesting with this post that Acro/Vivax may be scum, and this is action between them, and Acro bussed BM, etc.. They both flopped all over Twelve/ET yesterday. Fight with each other in some posts, then all of a sudden Vivax causes Acro to see the light and swap to ET. Acro never returns, Vivax the convincer later swap to Twelve, then to ET later after Wiggles tells us ET will be replaced. Not confident in his read enough to stay on the guy that he's convincing someone else to swap to. Super Bonus Fun Post! [B]On July 04 2012 18:19 Vivax wrote: Adam comes under suspicion. Vivax pops back to D1 and finds what felt like a joke post from BM asking folks to shoot at Adam. Not damning, but I really don't like some of these interactions.Lynch twelve or katina. I think Shiao has posted enough to be estimated better once the two of them flip. Katina ignoring so many scummy players to suspect Adam is just ridiculous. I think I've found something to Adam's defense. So much for Adam. Alright. The other candidate for her and twelve is casualman. Obviously a troll and an easy target. I don't think he's mafia, but he sure could be an asset to them. I don't care if we lynch Katina or twelve for now. ET going silent stinks, too. He found a good reason to push a townie case cause of the kenpachi rule. No safer way for scum to cause a mislynch by promoting a policy lynch. Also, for an experienced player, he should be posting more as townie. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
VE, you previously found Vivax scummy. Do you still have him as scum? How did yesterday change your read? NSH, why sheep Acrofales? Why do you have a townread on him? Just the BM stuff or is it more? Other folks, does this look weird? Does anything feel off about how much Acro and Vivax snipe at each other, yet never end up voting each other? It's not like these suspicions are great. Acro did rail on BM. We don't know if Twelve is scum, so we don't know whether the voteswaps were Town --> Town like D1, or actually saved scum. But Acro's jump between Twelve and ET feels off to me (More off than Kurumi's, if that says anything). He got convinced by a guy he finds scummy most of this game, jumps to ET for reasons addressed by ET's asking for a replacement, but never returns to vote someone else. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Double bonus post - On July 05 2012 04:36 Vivax wrote: Acro, consider a vote switch to ET? Out of all the people on Twelve, Vivax asks Acro to consider switching. Doesn't try to convince anyone else at this point. And upon succeeding, upon getting someone to swap a vote to his read, surely he feels pumped and tries to swap other votes to ET...right? Nope. He doesn't directly engage anyone else and ask them to switch their votes, despite successfully getting Acro to do so. He singles out Acro, the guy who was accusing him for most of the game, gets that single person to change his vote, and then doesn't push anyone else to do the same. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 06 2012 06:30 Vivax wrote: austin, use the link to the post. I asked acro directly cause it was shortly after he posted something, so I knew he would read it. Yes. He had just posted about being out of town for the running of the bulls. You did ask him shortly after he posted something. But that's a bad justification. Other people had just posted things as well.
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 06 2012 06:52 NoSmurfHere wrote: Please give us some specifics.My townread on Acro was based on him pushing BM so mercilessly. I actually considered for a time that he might be an active scum attempting to establish himself but I don't remember at which point I dropped him as a suspect; I suppose it was because there were too many people who were scummier than him. As to your timeline Acro, you DID post doubts about Vivax. 100% agree. Then AFTER posting those doubts, relatively early on in D2, you still posted: On July 04 2012 03:01 Acrofales wrote: I think the lynch should be between Vivax and Katina. On July 04 2012 03:07 Acrofales wrote: Oh, and just in case it's not clear from my vote, I currently favour Katina over Vivax. Despite having doubts on Vivax, you still listed him as your #2 scumread. Yes, NSH and I posted in favor of Vivax, but you went from "Vivax scum" to "doubts on Vivax" to "lynch Vivax or Katina" to "okay Vivax, you've convinced me." That's part of the problem, how much you and Vivax are just dancing around each other, but never actually voting. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
gg all | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Wished I'd actually posted my stupid thing in thread now: + Show Spoiler + So here's my fun theory, that I almost posted in thread before finding something else to talk about. Kurumi's early nonsense posts may/may not have had actual information in them. Town needs all the information it can get. Mafia has all the alignment information already. Therefore, town players will be reading and trying to interpret Kurumi's posts more than mafia players. Talking to Kurumi after the 12/ET vote, where he started posting in plainer english, does not count. This may break down if Kurumi is mafia, unsure what to make of that situation. But for fun: These are people that actively tried to interpret Kurumi posts: Mattchew (town), austinmcc (town), layabout (town), shiaopi (?), BKE (?), VE (?). Hyaach has claimed green checks on shiaopi and BKE. People that sort of try to read Kurumi: ET (town), Twelve (town), ghost (town), Acro (?) Acro just makes one little joke post, mainly speaks about Kurumi as a lynch target for being unreadable. If the checks on ShiaoPi and BKE are good, then VE is really the only person who can break this. For the one post where Acro sort of tries to engage Kurumi, he's got about 8 talking about how he can't read Kurumi and wants to lynch him. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I was going to post it, but then thought that acro failed to vote D2 so started looking at acro/vivax and went with that instead. Just wanted SOMETHING to spark discussion, because there were so many points during this game that town just stalled. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 15 2012 08:20 Vivax wrote: Once Acro and Kurumi made that gambit defending a townie from a mislynch (which was quite a gamble), they had a bulletproof defense for lategame. At least for me, since I would never see scum renouncing on a mislynch. The only remaining options in lategame were maju and grush. Maju didn't even bother defending himself, everyone on the scumteam was pointing to grush, making him actually look less suspicious. This was quite nice play by scum, so I wouldn't take credit away from the scumteam, although they had casualman casting a lot of doubt at that stage of the game. If a dude who has been calling you scum all game changes his vote because you ask him to, something is wrong. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 15 2012 16:21 Acrofales wrote: @austinmcc: are you talking about my switch off twelve? I thought my explanation was quite good. I mean... I backed off vivax for the exact same reason. I actually thought that through and figured that ignoring vivax would incriminate me slightly more than following a player I had marked as scum. I have to say that I would almost certainly play the same as town: if someone brings up a solid argument for why my scum target is town, I will take that argument into account regardless of my convictions about that player. Especially if it's the same argument I brought up earlier in defense of that player. Yeah, I'm talking about the switch from 12 to ET. Posted this and a few followups N2 - + Show Spoiler + On July 06 2012 06:02 austinmcc wrote: Not mentioned in the above timeline is Acrofales. Here's the short form of Acro during D2. 23:43 - Votes Katina - + Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 23:42 Acrofales wrote: Hrmmm, I disagree. I don't know when she started making decent sensible cases and pushing her reads in Jubjub, but she has not done that yet here. I guess the frivolous nonsense is more like jubjub than like MTG, but I don't get the feeling she's putting effort into scumhunting this game (see her D1 reason, and later defense of her BKE vote), whereas she was clearly doing that in jubjub. ##vote katina ***For the next 6 hours or so, Acro has two targets: Katina and Vivax. He was on Vivax a lot D1 and overnight, and just kept bringing those two up. + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 03:01 Acrofales wrote: I think the lynch should be between Vivax and Katina. On July 04 2012 03:07 Acrofales wrote: Oh, and just in case it's not clear from my vote, I currently favour Katina over Vivax. 6:01 - 6:03 - Acro swaps from Katina to Twelve - + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 06:01 Acrofales wrote: Okay. I've read Twelve's filter and some of the points brought up about him. I now have a top 3 people I want to lynch. Twelve has some stuff that reads like scum. Compilation of the cases: I don't know why Mattchew is making connection cases based on not-yet-flipped people, but of the two I think Twelve is more likely to flip scum and I think this case sums up his D1 behaviour. Twelve's defense consists mainly of "it was a joke" and some discussion about what a bandwagon is, which seemed okay when I hadn't read his filter and only saw the case in a list of scum. Now I'm no longer convinced. + Show Spoiler [Twelve's defense] + On July 02 2012 04:55 Twelve wrote: @Mattchew haha where to start... My first post that you quote was from before the game even started, so it probably shouldn't be taken to seriously. I simply don't know anyone here and was trying to start a conversation. The fact that you see a contradiction is also puzzling I can sort of see how it could be misinterpreted that I was saying "I am all for the hatred of bandwagons" but thats not what I was saying. In fact I was saying the opposite, I was asking to be clued in so I could join a bandwagon, but this was largely a joke. Suffice to say, anything I said before the game officially started probably shouldn't concern town too much. I do take issue with your use of the word band wagon though, upon reading the thread I found both BKE and Kurumi extremely suspicious, regardless of other players posts, and made my thoughts known. BKE says alot while conveying extremely little actual information, appearing to be helpful but really just mixing the pot. Kurumi writes long winded, somewhat schizophrenic sounding poems to his co-workers that are about as informative as a fortune cookie. I don't to see a vote count or FOS: BKE FOS:Kurumi for my brain to begin forming conclusions. As for the cutesy yuck bit, he seemed pretty angry that I would vote in the vote in the voting thread without warning him, so I tried to keep things light (read: I wrote something much ruder but thought better of it and decided to kill him with niceness :D)As far as calling out casualman, I tried very hard to think of any strategic reason a town would vote for themselves and I could think of none. I had the same issue with VE voting for himself, but voted unvoted in the same post, sort of like lowering and raising a supply depot while you wait for your rax to build i guess, so I really don't have a problem with it going under the radar. Bugs suggested this about his apeshit behaviour at night: I don't really see a reason why a townie would call someone godfather. Scum pushing a townie, or scum distancing himself from an actual godfather are both better explanations. I seem to remember there being another case against Twelve which was the one that actually made him blip on my scumdar, but I cannot find it. Anyway, yeah. I'm still not completely sure about Vivax, Katina has gone awol again. Lets kill Twelve. ##unvote ##vote Twelve ***Acro stays on Twelve for a while. Continues referencing Katina/Vivax in posts. Between wanting to lynch Vivax or Katina and now, he's somehow unsure on Vivax - + Show Spoiler + On July 04 2012 21:33 Acrofales wrote: Twelve: scum. I have my vote on him. I suggest you do the same. ShiaoPi: uncomfortable lynching him for reasons stated above. Katina: grouped with ET for highest probable veteran to be scum. I actually think her case on Mandalor has merit. But her best read is on a lurker, which is kind of a cop-out for a veteran. She was under pressure, came in and made a complete throwaway case on casualman, is not pushing the case and has probably gone off to lalaland again. If someone with a better metaread can point me in the right direction I will sheep. So far Mattchew and VE have town reads and Bugs and ghost have a scum read from meta. I was leaning scum based on the meta. Mattchew shot that down without explaining. Still waiting to hear why Katina is playing to her town meta from people with more playtime with her (particularly from Mattchew) before deciding on her. It seems clear that we're not going to get anything useful out of her today. Vivax: still unsure on what the hell he is. Uncomfortable with lynching him at the moment 3:02 - Reinforcement of his position on Twelve, after some back and forth with Vivax. Notes that he has been getting a scummier feeling on ET because of lack of defense/lack of scumhunting - + Show Spoiler + On July 05 2012 03:02 Acrofales wrote: I downright disagree on your policy, but the list you come up with corresponds to mine. I don't like a grush lynch, but it's mainly meta (he's playing the same as in space station where I blew him up and he flipped town). Other people have referenced LV and I agree that there he played far more actively. No clue how to read him and it seems like a coinflip. I have him with kurumi, casualman, majuju and adam: I'd bet my life that there's scum in that list, but fucked if I know how many or which ones. If there's still a vig with bullets he should be shooting into this list, though. DT should also be checking these, because I have given up trying to get a read from their posts. I actually find your whole logic on the policy completely topsy turvy and it also doesn't agree with your conclusions. Twelve, Katina and ET all have filters that are readable. They can be analyzed. We can analyze the cases made against them too. That gives us information to work with to unravel the rest of the team. Eventually we'll have to deal with the lurker team, but with, hopefully, some aid from vigis and DTs we won't have to lynch all six of them (we don't have time anyway). Now onto scumhunting: ET and Katina are the only two who have changed since last we chatted. Katina is here and posting. She seems unconcerned about getting lynched, which is more townie than scum. Then again, I was just told in SSB that reactions are the easiest thing to fake for scum. Still on the fence. ET has steadily been rising. The more I read his filter the more I see reasons for scum to post the way he does and the less it appears to be townie. His utter lack of defense against the cases raised against him, and his failure to do any scumhunting today despite the promise are making him look scummier every time I look at it. But Twelve is a better lynch, imho. There are just too many contradictions and coincidences in his filter. #ITEM No. 1 I'm not feeling the casualman lynch as a scum lynch. I hate associative cases before we flip someone, but with Katina and Twelve both pushing casualman it just feels like the easy townie that is being thrown in front of the truck by the scumteam. I also don't buy his "most likely scum lynch": it's a coinflip. No. The most likely scumflip is Twelve. #ITEM No. 2 I had quoted Mattchew's case mainly for its second point, which was the HORRID reasoning around his BKE vote. The first point seemed adequately explained by s0lstice as Mattchew failing reading comprehension, but the reasoning around Twelve's vote was terrible and Mattchew called him out on it. However, that doesn't really matter. The problem is with the bolded part in the reply. This reads to me like a scum who had dodged a bullet. Unfortunately for Twelve, Mafia doesn't work like that and now Mattchew's read is gaining traction. He panicked and tried to wave it off. Yes, the first part of the case was crap, but the second point was valid, and still is. Dismissing half the post as bullshit doesn't make the other half bullshit too. ITEM No. 3 His night behaviour. How the hell do you go from "he's scum" to "he's the godfather" without some kind of prior knowledge. I don't get it and no matter how many times Twelve tells me it was a "noobie mistake" I still won't get it. In closing, Twelve is scum and should die for his sins. ##vote Twelve for reinforcement, my vote is already in the right spot 4:30 - 6:00 - Interaction between Vivax and Acro ***Acro unvotes Twelve, votes ET*** Of specific note is the post from 3:02. Look at Acro's reads on ET/Twelve
Now look at Acro's later reads on ET/Twelve
Who convinced Acro to change his read? Oh, one of his main suspects during D1 and part of D2, Vivax. The guy he was so suspicious of, but didn't quite want to vote for. And yes, I've defended Vivax and had a townread on him. I'm basically suggesting with this post that Acro/Vivax may be scum, and this is action between them, and Acro bussed BM, etc.. They both flopped all over Twelve/ET yesterday. Fight with each other in some posts, then all of a sudden Vivax causes Acro to see the light and swap to ET. Acro never returns, Vivax the convincer later swap to Twelve, then to ET later after Wiggles tells us ET will be replaced. Not confident in his read enough to stay on the guy that he's convincing someone else to swap to. Super Bonus Fun Post! Adam comes under suspicion. Vivax pops back to D1 and finds what felt like a joke post from BM asking folks to shoot at Adam. Not damning, but I really don't like some of these interactions. You never really seemed to back off vivax, because while you stopped calling him scum every other post, you still listed katina as your preferred lynch for the day, vivax second. And while vivax asked you to switch votes, vivax himself switched 2 or 3 times that day between 12 and ET. I didn't like that a guy that couldn't convince himself AND that you found scummy got you to switch your vote. I don't know that I could have gotten you lynched though, tbh. I meant it when I said I was focused on katina the next day after that empty post of hers, which means you couldn't have been lynched for 120 hours. Enough people, including some influential people, had townreads on you that I may not have been able to get it done. | ||
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