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Emergency Mini Mafia! - Page 11

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Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 00:59 GMT
#793
I'm here to talk about Zelblade. He's scum.

My argument against him is mostly going to be analysis, but I'll talk about his meta as well. The two sources I'm using for his meta are LI, in which he was scum (link) and MTG Mini, in which he was town (link) to get a better understanding of how he plays.

1) Zelblade played D1 start to his scum meta.

To get an idea of how Zelblade starts his scum games off, in LI he opened up with a bunch of questions and soft-defenses of town players (link)(link 2). This basically lets him make some minor contributions until he can find a safe wagon to hop on (link) but only after someone else, a townie, has made a case against that guy (link). He's not afraid to break ground with his vote, but he doesn't make any new cases. I'm not gonna talk about his D2 play from LI, because of the notorious 2-way bus that game-- our D2 was the opposite situation, where two players that weren't in his Scum QT where attacking each other.

In his town play, Zelblade is different. As he goes into MTG, Zelblade is lurking but comes out swinging with a case against VE AND a case against NT (link). Also, as an aside, he seems utterly unafraid to lurk. He's apologetic about it, but he goes long periods of times, sometimes days, posting like once or twice in a 24 hour span with meh posts. He's admittedly a low-post-count player, but he doesn't put a lot of effort into "appearing" town when he's town. He'll disappear 20 hours, make a one-line post (link), then disappear for another 20 hours without contributing. When he comes back, he comes back with a read and a vote (link).

So how does Zelblade play here? Well, he starts off asking weird questions (link) and making a soft defense based on setup that was inherently reasonable (link). Typical Scum Zelblade. And as soon as the heat picks up on Pandain, he hops right on board. To really contextualize his Pandain vote, let's check out how he responds to claims.


2. Zelblade voted Pandain like he does in scum meta.

As town he distrusts weird claims: (link), especially ones without check crumbs (link) to back them up, and immediately calls out Zealos for a bad claim. Sounds like that informed his Pandain reaction, but when we see HOW he went about it, it's a lot more like his scum play than his town play.

His reactions to Pandain's claim and Pandain's play D1 match his D1 scum play in LI almost perfectly. He calls out Pandain for diverting the discussion WHILE hiding behind other player's arguments (link):
On June 06 2012 22:21 zelblade wrote:
Either way I would be perfectly fine with a Pandain lynch. The blueslip feels exteremely fake to me. Slipping like that is akin to making a major scumslip... and one is more likely than not going to be more careful about leaking their role no? As pointed out, the random vig claim as well as the random mason discussion managed to severly derail the thread which reeks of scum. A couple more points is that he tries to dump suspision on me through a vauge statement.

JUST as he did in LI with his case and vote against Tunkeg AFTER ET made the initial case against Tunkeg (link)
On April 09 2012 21:54 zelblade wrote:
Giving my thoughts on the lynch candidates proposed so far.

My preferred lynch for today would actually be Tunkeg. He first starts off the day with his "random lynch", as well as a spreadsheet detailing the "scores" of everyone, and by extension, how "good" they supposedly are. Although he claims that his aim with this was to generate discussion, the content of the generated discussion, in my opinion, does not help town at all. Looking at the next couple of pages after his post, one will notice that what this has mostly done is do an excellent job of distracting town, instead getting most players to comment on how wrong his list is and agure what exactly a W/L ratio is. I personally dont feel that his list has managed to do anything in terms of scumhuting, and has actually distracted us from doing so.

//snip//

As such, this is why I believe that Tunkeg is scum. He has managed to waste a boatload of town's time discussing the vitrues of his so-called random lynch and why Jackal is bad, and his sput defense just doesnt click well with me.

This is how Zelblade operates as scum: he finds a townie who's already been pushed, usually for saying something irrelevant, but also talks about the D1 candidate "wasting town's time" or "diverting discussion" in addition to reciting main components of the case the others have.

Contrast his town play in MTG when he votes to lynch MJ (link), in which he shoots down other cases and notably does not need to justify his case with talk about sidetracking the town, even though MJ WAS full of weird statements about consolidating evidence, jumping to conclusions, and odd vote justifications and non-justifications. He voted who he wanted lynched without fear and without worrying about repercussions.

On May 23 2012 00:00 zelblade wrote:
Apparently I screwed up that quote tag -_-

Eh I just realised its pluarity lynch lol. I am considering if I should dump my vote on zealos and see if it gains any traction or onto one of the three leading candidates. Kind of a hard decision since I wouldnt mind all of them dying.

Mattchew is still being a pain in the ass, though his posts are starting to get understandable, and he actually has more content than say, mouldy jeb. Probably not the best lynch today, think hes town.

I still think nova is scummy. But mouldy more so. Agree with marv's case generally.

##vote: Mouldy Jeb

Also I am going to sleep soon (school) so I probably cant change my vote (deadline sucks for me as usual -_-).


He talks about other players being scummy, but says this target is the most scummy. He does not waffle and waver. He doesn't justify his vote or ameliorate the hard edges his case with lip-flapping.

His D1 vote on Pandain looks JUST LIKE his D1 LI vote, and nothing like his voting and case-making when he's scum. This is Zelblade trying to deflect attention and make up easy reasons to vote easy targets, just like when he was scum in LI.

Section 3: Zelblades Reaction to Hyaach v BH is scummy regardless of Meta

Zalblade's D2 vote on me (link) and his D1 vote on Pandain, coupled with the accompanying cases, look exactly like his scum voting, and nothing like his town voting. In fact, he spent so much time talking about how much he was "bugged" that scum would make my roleclaim and how Hyaach, who had to be town if I was scum, gave him "scummy vibes" that I thought he was voting to lynch Hyaach, not me.

On June 10 2012 02:28 zelblade wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
Well since no roleblocker is claiming and i cannot be around during the deadline I will be making my decision now.

At the start of the day I believed that bh wasnt lying. Well until ghost brought up the meta changes that is. I can understand him wanting to change his playstyle.... But i think that he would have said something like "I'm going to try to be less agressive" pretend if that was the case no? A minor point of course. I am unsure about his reaction regarding pandain's claim. I definitely think him playing it off was possible, but I found this post wierd.

On June 06 2012 11:18 Blazinghand wrote:
dude you are aware there are like RBs and shit in this game


Note the this is an instant reaction. Let's say someone claims a role that you have and it is exteremly unlikely there are two of the same role. Wouldt you stop for a little while and give it some thought about how you are going to react to what is very possibly a fakeclaim? I don't see why he would post this. By the way, this is before where bh claims he realized he slipped so.... It's not a cover up.

What is really bugging me is this - why in the world would a scum bh claim vig? It makes no sense. He didn't know he was getting roleblocked, and doing so would force a 1-1 trade with hyaach at best.

Onto hyaach, he has given me scum vibes at the start of the game. Not going to elaborate but his general posting and luckiness made me feel off about him.

Claiming rb as scum makes sense, I already explained why somewhere in my filter, so this is a null tell.

His jailkeeper claim is sketchy too. Exteremly convenient. The lack of a town rb claiming (not exsisting or simply not willing to claim?) weakens it quite a bit. I can see ehat he means when he says that he shot down every jk scinerio though. It's definitely possible that was faked. However, I'm actually inclined to believe this claim since my gut says so. His recent posting seem to have a fearless aura which makes me feel that he's town.

I'm going to just go with bh I guess.

##unvote
##vote: blazinghand


Look a tthis post and this vote. This isn't what a town player would do. If you were unsure, you would cast a vote for BH and say "yeah he looks scummier" and yeah, if you're gonna be afk for the rest of the day, you lay out your thoughts. But read this post and ask yourself-- is this how a town player writes a case, or how a scum player tries to duck responsibility and come out looking townie at the same time?

In fact, this is not how Zelblade ends any of his vote posts as town-- he never feels the need to justify himself or fill himself full of doubts like this. He probably anticipated me not flipping Mafia and didn't want to look too bad on the wagon. Typical scum play.

This doesn't look at all like MtG Zelblade.

This looks like LI Zelblade.

This looks like scum. Let's vote him, and not waste a lynch on the SK who wants to help town.

##vote: Zelblade
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 01:03 GMT
#797
On June 12 2012 10:02 ghost_403 wrote:
I've got an idea.

We lynch Zelblade today.

Then get BH to shoot himself tonight.

Yeah, that'll work. This is a good plan.


Man, read my post above my zelblade case. The only way for me, a claimed SK, to win, gives town a higher chance to win than (IMO) 3 consecutive days of LYLO.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 01:04 GMT
#798
On June 12 2012 10:03 ghost_403 wrote:
WAIT!

BH is bulletproof.

New plan. Let's lynch BH, then zelblade.


I have an extra night life, a single one, and scum shot me N1, so they could easily shoot me tonight and kill me. I don't see how that's relevant though.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 01:05 GMT
#799
On June 12 2012 10:03 MrZentor wrote:
I have a better idea, we kill BH.


Really? You want 3 days of LYLO rather than a real chance at winning?
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 01:06 GMT
#801
On June 12 2012 10:05 ghost_403 wrote:
In order for not lynching you to be good, we would need to lynch scum today and have you shoot scum tonight. You've only given us one scum. Not lynching you still isn't a good trade for town.


READ MY FIRST POST. Even if we lynch scum today and I shoot town tonight (and I might accidentally shoot scum!), town has a higher win rate.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 01:08 GMT
#803
PS Since I'm right at the bottom of the page:

My post detailing how the only way for a claimed SK to win increases the town winrate: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=341663&currentpage=40#792

My post showing that Zelblade is playing A) like scum and B) like Zelblade scum: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=341663&currentpage=40#793
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 01:09 GMT
#804
On June 12 2012 10:07 ghost_403 wrote:
Yeah, no.

If we lynch BH, we lynch someone that admitted to being anti-town.

If we lynch zelblade, we lynch someone who we think is anti-town.

I have no idea why any townie would chose the first option over the second.


BECAUSE IT HELPS YOU. Because after you lynch me, tomorrow, you're gonna be at 5-3, and will have to survive 3 days of LYLO. You know your odds are slim. Take a look at my plan! It makes the town odds better. It makes mafia odds WAY WORSE. Yes, it admittedly gives me a chance to win-- that's why it's my plan-- but I'm only pitching it because it holds up to scrutiny. READ IT.

Scum don't like my plan cause it makes it very hard for them to win. They may even have to waste another bullet on me!
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 01:15 GMT
#806
On June 12 2012 10:14 MrZentor wrote:
This is all assuming you ARE sk.

Which you aren't.


But I am! Do you really think that scum could pull off an N1 NK? What was my plan for the N1 NK when there was only going to be one kill?

Here's an infographic for those of you who don't get the ramifications of my plan:

[image loading]
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 01:17 GMT
#807
Like I think we all know that a vigi fakeclaim isn't really doable as scum in this setup, but is TOTALLY PLAUSIBLE as SK. Like, the reason I figured Pandain wasn't a vigi was that it wouldn't make sense for there to be an SK AND a Vigi (since, given the role choice WBG presented me, to appear town to claims or to have an extra night life, I assumed we had a cop).
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 01:18 GMT
#809
On June 12 2012 10:17 ghost_403 wrote:
Something I'm still waiting for an answer on.

Show nested quote +
On June 12 2012 02:14 ghost_403 wrote:
And what if you're not the SK? What happens then?


You forget, the only thing that we have to prove that you actually are the SK is your claim. There has only been one night kill the entire game so far, so we can't even be certain that there is even an SK in the game.


So your story is "oh, BH isn't the SK. He was scum trying to fakeclaim as vigi, and he'd totally have some way to justify the single NK N1 as a vigi"

cause that's a bad story.

Look, that aside, check out my zelblade case. Good case, yes?
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 01:24 GMT
#811
On June 12 2012 10:21 ghost_403 wrote:
It's not nearly as conclusive as

Show nested quote +
On June 12 2012 01:55 Blazinghand wrote:
Ok guys, fine. You caught me. I fucked up and you caught me.

I am the Serial Killer.+ Show Spoiler +
N1 I fired at Furerkip, and was RBed. N2 I fired at VE. I did so because given a town JK and a town RB, it was weird that we'd have a miller.

The Mafia haven't killed anyone yet this game.

Don't lynch me YET, town. I CAN HELP YOU. I have infinite bullets. I don't know if I still have my night life, but I can at least try to kill a scum tonight, and maybe they won't shoot me anyways because you'll have to lynch me eventually. I know as an SK it's terrible to claim, but if I die today I definitely can't win.

Let me help you.

I even fuckign crumbed my goddamn SK role cause I thought it might come down to this. I was super sure Mafia RBed me AND shot me N1, too!

On June 09 2012 16:32 Blazinghand wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 09 2012 16:24 Hyaach wrote:
Read the quote again its not just about his meta. Its about him failing to pressure Pandain after the fake claim and going up with MrZ

Why bother to argue about game mechanics and balance like Mason claiming

On June 06 2012 11:54 Blazinghand wrote:
On June 06 2012 11:49 Pandain wrote:
1. Blue roles will have more information in executing their actions. There will be 2 less chances for each blue role to waste a check/shot/roleblock on a townie. Times that by the amount of power roles we have and that is a significant deal. We won't be able to do that if they claim at the very end of N1.

We don't have a vigi AND masons AND an additional blue role and you know it.

On June 06 2012 11:49 Pandain wrote:
2. We have more information. This is good, not just becuase we won't lynch the masons, but for all the information that springs out of confirmed townies. Your right, BH, confirmed townies aren't 100% right. But the fact is that they aren't scum, and that lets us make sure town runs the scene, not scum. I'd rather have an idiot town help guide town than any scum.


Given that the lynch seems to have consolidated onto me (or navi), I'd be very, very surprised if a mason somehow revealing themselves would change things today, unless Navi or me are masons, in which case my idea of "don't claim D1 unless you're gonna get lynched" applies quite well.

On June 06 2012 11:49 Pandain wrote:
Masons getting shot = more blue roles able to do stuff.
Blues(if even that) getting shot = we still have confirmed townie.

Right... but one of these two things is gonna happen ANYWAYS. all that claiming NOW does is let scum choose which one. Claiming now is terrible.

On June 06 2012 11:49 Pandain wrote:
Basically we'll have more information, and now. We already (are pretty sure) that VE is a miller, I'm a vig, if we have tow additional masons that = 4/12 people already accounted for! Then factor in individual analysis and guesswork! That's a HUGE deal in lynch one!


1) Whether or not VE is scummy is a function of his play, not his claim.
2) We don't know you're a vigi at the moment, as you yourself have said.
3) all of this works just as well with masons claiming N1 unless a mason is gonna get lynched, in which case they shoudl claim.


MASONS: don't listen to pandain. Don't claim D1 unless you're gonna get lynched.


and what does the bold post shows again? His saving crumbs for a possible fake mason claim as well?


Oh, of course, IT TOTALLY MAKES SENSE FOR SCUM TO FAKE A MASON CLAIM. Yeah. Clearly. That doesn't even look like a crumb for a mason claim. What the dicks are you talking about?

Like, I don't even know how to argue with this. It's like I'm arguing that a certain belief is epistemologically sound and my opponent is just shouting "grail" at the top of his lungs with no context or explanation as though that's an argument.



My crumb is Grail, an out of place word that is a holy vessel-- and Vessels are the signature unit of SK terran. SK = Serial Killer.

Yes, I'm not town-aligned. But don't kill me today. Let me help you. My only crumb for the VE kill was that he was the first guy I mentioned in my just-before-day post. I wanted it to be obtuse because I was hoping the town RB would claim and save me, but he's either an ass or he realized i'm the SK.


Really? No other comments?

Like, ok, at the VERY LEAST, let's assume I'm an SK trying to help town lynch scum, and let's try to talk about Zelblade. As a town player, you must assume I'm trying to lynch scum today (since if we lynch town I MUST hit scum overnight or lose). That way, after I flip SK, you at least have some discussion on something other than "BH is SK"

I suggest this for two reasons. 1) it might get people to take me seriously and 2) IF YOU'RE TOWN, COME ON, ACT IN YOUR INTERESTS.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 01:26 GMT
#812
Here's what town is thinking right now:
"Wow blazinghand is either really desperate SK, or maybe a really desperate scum who was really really stupid N1. I may want to lynch him just cause he's the SK and may be Mafia, but I'm gonna read his case on Zelblade anyways cause it might be reasonable, and we need something to discuss anyways."

Here's what scum is thinking now:
"BH is a threat, and I want to make sure there's no discussion D3 that could endangerous our impending victory. Better NOT discuss anything important here, just talk randomly about BH. Discussion bad. sheeping good."
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 01:35 GMT
#814
On June 12 2012 10:31 ghost_403 wrote:
Here's what I'm thinking right now:

"Wow, blazinghand is really scummy, self admittedly antitown, and has made a quarter of the posts in the entire thread."

Stop spamming.


If you think there's any chance I'm an SK, you will take a look at the case I wrote about zelblade and you will respond. If you're town and not scum, you're not afraid of WRITING OUT YOUR OPINION BEFORE I FLIP.

You know this to be true.

Quit dodging.

Help town.

Discuss.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 01:42 GMT
#815
Every town player should take note at who wants to only discuss my (basically unavoidable) lynch, and who wants to actually discuss other things. What makes sense to you, town players? What seems like something scum would do where they want to just point back on it and said "Look, i helped lynch an SK!" while at the same time shutting down important discussion time leading into 3x LYLO?

What makes sense as town?

Accusing me of spam and ignoring the case I've made entirely, shutting down discussion?

Or reading and responding to my post talking about my motivations (link) and my case against zelblade (link)?

Keep track of who does what for when I flip.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 01:53 GMT
#817
On June 12 2012 10:52 Navillus wrote:
BH as I understand your argument a fairly large part of it relies on you missing town WHEN YOU'RE SHOOTING FOR TOWN. I'm sorry but you don't suck that much, this is convincing and all but you had to admit that at many of these points you are trying to screw town and we basically need you to screw up to not lose, as I said earlier I am not relying on you not screwing us intentionally or by accident.



Ok, that's a fair point. But let's say I do everything perfectly and hit town!

There's still the chance mafia will shoot me, thinking they'll fare better in 3-1 than in 2-1-1.

Then, even if we get to 2-1-1, all we have to do is lynch a townie and town gets a 50% winrate due to kingmaker scenario! It's no problem.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 01:54 GMT
#818
On June 12 2012 10:52 Navillus wrote:
BH as I understand your argument a fairly large part of it relies on you missing town WHEN YOU'RE SHOOTING FOR TOWN. I'm sorry but you don't suck that much, this is convincing and all but you had to admit that at many of these points you are trying to screw town and we basically need you to screw up to not lose, as I said earlier I am not relying on you not screwing us intentionally or by accident.



And believe me, if Town had a good chance of winning at this point I'd be screwing you guys and not scum. I'd LOVE to screw you guys, but you don't have much win% for me to TAKE from you at this point. I *have* to screw scum.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 04:21 GMT
#820
##unvote
##vote zelblade

When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 17:16 GMT
#830
Um by reading the case lol. Don't unvote me if you don't want to but at least discuss it...
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 18:02 GMT
#832
Like, I'm just trying to wrap my head around the fact that literally at least one of Snarfs, Ghost, Artanis, and Palmar must be town, and just straight-up doesn't want to discuss my zelblade case even though this means stifling any useful discussion that could be taking place right now. Everyone's like "oh man I have no way of telling if BH's zelblade case is legit, therefore I'm literally gonna ignore it" but that... that's so bad I can't even react to that sentence in a coherent fashion. Just comment on the goddamn case! It's like the best case I've ever written, it's got links and quotes and everything!

If you're town, and you think there's a 50% chance I'm actually Mafia and don't want to unvote me, that's ok. But at least TALK about zelblade. He's playing EXACTLY like his scum meta this game and I've laid it out so easily even EchelonTee er, uh, HiroPro um, I mean, a baby could read and understand it. Read it! click the links! Comment and have discussion about something other than my unavoidable death in 4 hours!

It's like I have to force you guys to act like townies.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25557 Posts
June 12 2012 18:04 GMT
#833
Ok I think I get it, the case is really far away from this page and we're having trouble finding it. It's HARD to go back a page and a half to find a case. That's understandable.

I'll provide a link to it (link to the sexy zelblade case) to make everyone's life easier.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
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