EPTEmergency Mini Mafia! - Page 10
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 12 2012 02:12 zelblade wrote: Thinking about it now though ve could have been stacked.. Need to sleep on this OH DAMN YEAH. That too. I don't know why scum would shoot VE, cause I thought he was scum. But that's an explanation also. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
##unvote ##vote: snarfs | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 12 2012 02:17 Katina wrote: There were no kills n1, two people got RB'd one of them was the JK which means he couldn't have jailed anyone. Thus, the most likely scenerio is Blazinghand did the Mafia shot and it failed because he got RB'd. Any other scenerio is extremely far-fetched. What's this, Katina ignoring logic to justify keeping a vote on me? HOW REASONABLE. On June 12 2012 02:25 MrZentor wrote: BH, the problem I'm having is that if your first night roleblocker existed, I think he would have claimed by now. Me too! I'm pretty mad at him. He either figured out I'm the SK or is just a dack. Now that I've outed myself as the SK, there's no reason for him to out himself unless he thinks I'm still gonna get lynched. Also, he might just be down with an SK lynch. I think It's also like super super worth noting that Mafia know I'm the SK, and are completely terrified of me now. I need to use my shots in a pro-town way, and I have tons of shots. Mafia in their Mafia QT are probably shitting all over themselves and each other trying to make sure I get lynched today, because I'm a huge threat. To them, I'm effectively a town vig with infinite bullets who might occasionally aim for townies but is basically gonna shot at them right now. They're scared. They want me dead. Think about it. I'm here to help. Lynch me tomorrow if you must, but lynch Mafia today. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 12 2012 03:12 Snarfs wrote: Guess I have too much faith in the intelligence of other players. Tell me, BH, how did you honestly expect not to be lynched before lylo with your vig claim? Because clearly if your goal was to lynch everyone who thought you might be town you would have failed pretty damn quick. Cause I was the *SK*. I'd be easily confirmed town if I called a shot and made it! I didn't KNOW I was gonna get Rbed N1. And as a confirmed town, sure, maybe scum would try to shoot me one night, but I picked the extra night life just in case! It was gonna be awesome. You're saying my shit makes no sense as a mafia player, and that's cause it doesn't. Cuase I'm SK. Don't lynch me!. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 12 2012 03:32 ghost_403 wrote: @BH: What are your thoughts on Katina? 1) They haven't changed since just before daybreak. On June 11 2012 06:59 Blazinghand wrote: I don't like that Katina has had a free pass on analysis because all she does is attack me. Katina occasionally lurks but Katina also typically has thoughts on more than one player, and will post aggressively to respond to multiple players in the thread. Check her Liar Game filter for an example of her VT play: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=333034&user=248411 Katina's Town play is not tunnelling and lurking like this. Aggressively pushing me isn't a bad thing, but when it absorbs all of your play and you play in an uncharacteristic and actually kinda unhelpful fashion as a result (especially compared with the last town game), it raises eyebrows. 2) Katina, I'd like to apologize, I've been using the masculine pronoun for you when from what other people have been saying you are in fact not a dude. I'm sorry. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
Like, wtf, town RB. Way to not save me. Unless you figured out it was in fact me who was the SK. But seriously, only one claimed RB today? I didn't fakeclaim the RB N1, and neither did Hyaach. Like, we can agree 100% that I was RBed N1. And there's NO WAY Hyaach fakeclaimed his RB. So there are two RBErs. Why is there only one RB from last night? Did the RBer oh ohhhhhh Scum RBed VE and shot him! they stacked RB and shot, just like they did N1. ok so this means the town RBer RBed Artanis. OR ARTANIS IS THE SCUM RBER. WHY IS THERE ONLY ONE RB CLAIM FROM LAST NIGHT? Think about it. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
Hyaach was RBed, he wouldn't lie, he was the JK, and VE, the town Miller, didn't claim getting RBed. As SK OR SCUM I clearly must have been RBed. My called shot on Furerkip didn't go through. So what's the deal with the N2 RBs? Why isn't there a second RB claim? | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
I'm gonna spend some time looking at Snarfs' previous games to see if there's a meta case to support my general suspicion of him. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 12 2012 04:00 Artanis[Xp] wrote: But wait, that wouldn't explain the lack of a second KP in the case of you being SK. Strange. Perhaps Scum's messing with our minds. In my mind, here's what scum is doing: they're putting their RB on the same dude their NKing to hide the RB. They did it N1 with me. They did it last night with VE. That's the only reason I could think of for their not being a second RB tonight, other than that perhaps scum RBed you and you're the town RB, or town RBed you and you're the scum RB, or scum RBed you and the town RB RBed VE. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 12 2012 04:04 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Or the person that got RBed as well isn't telling us because he's scum. So in this case, scum RBed you, and whoever the town RB RBed is scum, and the town RB can claim in the last hour of N3 and reveal the scum. That would be good. He COULD ALSO CLAIM NOW AND SAVE ME, AND WE COULD LYNCH THIS GUY, BUT NOOOOOO | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 12 2012 04:25 MrZentor wrote: Artanis, BH is scum. Technically, as scum includes both SK and Mafia in its definition, this is a true statement. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 12 2012 04:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Yes, so let's go back to scumhunting based on behavior. Care to start making some cases to prove you want to actually help town? I said I'm reading snarf's stupid history, but he always plays in PM games. His most recent non PM game is DF Mafia and that was 7 whole pages filter. Give me a second, jeez. I've spent all game trying to only be marginally helpful and now I have to be actually helpful and it sucks. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
Snarfs is unafraid to move his vote around several times in the same day. He calls out cases that he thinks are bad (link) and will vote people for scummy play and move his vote around at the deadline (link) When he writes cases, they are typically big and monstrous quote-beasts (link). We can see from DF2 that he does his homework and tries to read people's meta as well (link). This is how Snarfs defends his case and increases the pressure on paperscraps in Wiggles MMII: (link). What we see is a player who regularly does a lot of research and writes long, complex posts. He's not abrasive, but he's not afraid to get into a logical discussion with someone as a town player. He doesn't post a huge amount, and a fair number of his posts are one-liners, but his cases and his votes are typically connected to a lot of analysis. Let's examine Snarfs' play in this game: He opens up by pressuring multiple players (link) and eventually voting me early in D1 (link) in a fashion that is typical of snarfs opening play as townie. He pushes me more aggressively here in a post directed at 2 people, as he did in Wiggles MMII (link). He does change his vote later in the day, but this could be because of his previous pandain experience. He votes for Hyaach for weird reasons, but this also falls in line with his late-day vote switch shenanigans. (link) Where I see Snarfs going "off the rails" a little is that he doesn't interact with Hyaach with the same sort of large posts we see out of him usually (interacting with Hyaach) but he has pushed some players with short posts before (BL in DF2). The big thing that strikes me as odd is his strident defense of me in the face of all opposition. But if we examine his play overall, we see 2 common themes: one, he flip flops a lot and is willing to post and vote based on relatively weak reads, and two, he will occasionally do a good deal of work to support an existing read of his. Although I haven't Snarfs do a hard defense of someone before, given sureness about me, it fits within his meta of flip flopping on some things but sticking to his guns on things he's sure on. I'm not willing to lynch him any more. ##unvote | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On June 12 2012 05:45 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I think your defense of Snarfs is good. Thanks for that. ##Unvote ##Vote Blazinghand A regrettable, but understandable vote. I'm kinda dissapointed since I know there are 6 town players who aren't helping discuss anything but whether or not I am the SK. Let me lay it out for you guys-- how a claimed SK can win, and why this means helping town. This is the only win plan that can possibly work for a claimed SK, and you don't need to "control" me to do it: + Show Spoiler + Currently, We are at D3, 6-3-1. If we lynch me: N3: 6-3 D4: 5-3 LYLO with 3 scum -- very, very difficult. Even with good lynches, you'll have a D5 LYLO with 2 scum and a D6 LYLO with 1 scum, both of which will be hellish. If we lynch mafia instead: N3: 6-2-1 Now good things can happen-- Mafia and I will both try to shoot town, but I might hit Mafia and maybe Mafia wants to shoot me, both of which help town. Even if the worst thing happens and we both shoot town: D4: 4-2-1 LYLO with 2 Mafia! Here we need to lynch scum again. IF we do so, then at the start of N4: N4 4-1-1 Here's where things get interesting, I think. Scum will want to shoot town and so will I, but if I hit scum, town wins. That's a 20% chance right there (since the 3rd and final scum will be the one who is best-hidden, we're assuming random shots). BUT EVEN IF I SHOOT TOWN AGAIN (which I'm trying to do), town can STILL WIN. D5: 2-1-1 This is a special scenario. It looks like game over, right? WRONG. See, at 2-1-1, you want to lynch a townie. If you lynch me, scum shoots a townie and wins. If you lynch scum, I shoot a townie and win. If you lynch a townie, N5 is 1-1-1 and scum has to shoot me, and I'll shoot and whoever I don't shoot wins (and I won't know which faction will win, either!). So N5 is a 50-50 win-chance between town and scum! What this means is during a 2-1-1 D5, town wants to lynch town, and I want to lynch scum. Honestly, scum wants to lynch me, but has to pretend to want to lynch town. So we try to lynch the towniest player on D5, doing our best not to lynch scum. From our current gamestate, this is the only way I can win-- by getting it to 2-1-1, and lynching the scum player. There are numerous paths to the 2-1-1 where town can win, and even when we get there, there's a 2/3rds chance we lynch a townie, which gives town an additional 50% chance to win. "Now, wait, Blazinghand, what if we lynch town today? Won't we be boned?" Well, not quite. If you lynch town, I'll do my best to shoot scum overnight, since I don't want scum to win any more than I want you to win. If I shoot scum, we're back to the normal deal with the 50% winrate N5 and the various ways for you to win including me shooting another scum, or scum deciding to shoot me because I'm too And if I shoot town overnight? Well, then it's over. But after you lynch me, it'd be over after one mislynch anyways. Think about it-- I'll give you a second bite at the apple. I don't want Town to win. But now that I've claimed? My only POSSIBLE route to victory gives you a strong chance to win, a much stronger chance to win than it gives scum. You see, currently after you lynch me there are 3 LYLOs in a row. I shot VE for another reason, besides him attacking me in a smart way and the fact that he might be scum, and it's the same reason scum did: VE could possibly lead this town through multiple LYLOs if not shot. Without the JK saving him, scum took their chance to shoot him. He's a strong player. We don't have VE now. All we have is us. So, to summarize: Lynch me, and you have 3 terrible days of LYLO. You and I both know how TL towns do at LYLO 3 times in a row: not well. Lynch scum, and I have multiple chances to accidentally shoot scum, making things super easy for you guys, or even if I don't shoot scum by accident, you get a 50% chance of winning during N5! You only have to lynch scum at ONE LYLO in order to get this high chance of winning, compounded on all my accidentally shooting scum possibilities. In fact, there's a good chance scum will try to shoot me a second time sometime during this, leaving you with an extra lynch in the pocket! I don't WANT to help town, it's the only way I can win. Don't waste your only mislynch on me. Let's lynch scum. I'll try to shoot to keep us at LYLO, but I CAN'T let Mafia win. My goal is to make it to a day where it's 2-1-1, but frankly there's a good chance I'll get shot or shoot scum, and even if we make it there, there's still a chance a townie gets lynched and I'm stuck in a kingmaker scenario where I don't know who's who! 50% town victory! The odds are better if you let me live. Let's lynch scum, guys. It'll lower the scum win chance, and increase the town win chance, and yes, my win chance-- but it'll still help you. I claimed because I know as well as you do that I'm forced to try to help the town. If we mislynch and are dealing with MYLO tomorrow, I *will* try to shoot scum tonight. I will give us an extra bite at the apple! You know it! So now that you're convinced it's better to lynch Mafia than me, let me present to you the player who I think is Mafia. This case will be so convincing you'll realize it's better to lynch him than me. It'll give you something to unvote me for. I'm doing this for my own good, but it will incidentally help you. Let me help you. Let me lynch Zelblade. | ||
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