Pick Your Poison Mafia

On June 04 2012 07:27 Radfield wrote:
Why is Toad scum.

Or rather, why do I think Toad is scum. This may be slightly long winded, and it certainly won't be concise. Toad is an active player as scum, and has fooled me twice before because of that. There is no clear and decisive scum agenda Toad is pushing, and there is no one thing that makes him scum(though I did find my first ever real-live damning scumslip). Instead what I have is a body of evidence that shows Toad is not playing with Town goals in mind. He is playing in an effort to lead mislynches, and with a goal of keeping town moving in the wrong direction.

I find very little scummy in Toad's Day 0 play. With lots to contribute and lots to discuss it is extremely easy for an active scum player(like Toad) to blend in on Day 0. Apart from the fact that he begins to buddy me very early on, I see little that leads me to think he is scum in the first 24 hours.

Day 1 however is a very different story. I'd like to talk about 4 main points. First, the pushing of Hiropro. Second, the WBG flip flop(which has been discussed, but not adequately). Third, and most damning, the double scum slip. Fourth and lastly, the case on Prplhz. There are also several additional small isolated issues which I will mention.

Please remember that none of these points by themselves indicate that Toad is scum. But taken as an entire body of evidence they amount to a damning case against a very likely scum player.

I'd also like to mention that this case is NOT based on my previous analysis of Framer/Roleblocker/GF votes. That was an exercise to narrow down my focus, NOT the basis of a case. However I am confident that I was correct in my assessment.

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Point Number 1: the attack on Hiropro

What I'd like to represent is that Toad attempts to push a lynch onto Hiro very strongly. A lynch not based on whether or not Hiro is scummy, but rather based solely on the fact that Hiro voted GF. Additionally, Toad states strongly and ephatically that Hiro is scum.... and then waffles away and gives alternate targets.

Let me say that again, he is almost sure that hiro is scum, going so far as to say "Hiro is basicly a claimed mafia", but then offers up other lynch options. What!? If you think a guy is for sure scum, and has slipped hard, you don't just offer up other options.

Also, witness the tone:

First, incredulity and confusion, but no accusation:



Second: Weirdness and oddness, with some discussion about why you should stick to the plans. Again, no hint of a strong accusation here. An accusation perhaps of not being a team player, even equating his play to a townie from a different game, but both those things actually soft accuse Hiropro of being Town, just not a team player.



Next post and several hours later Toad drops down his vote without further discussion. No additional points raised, but we've gone from gentle admonition to wanting him to hang.

He follows it up with this post which is a giant contradiction. A) thinks Hiro is basically a claimed mafia. B) is willing to lynch some other guy who is NOT a claimed mafia in Toads eyes. That does not jive one bit.




Toad then goes on to only softly push Hiropro. First adding on a convoluted reason for him to be scum, which is quickly shown to be incorrect, and then falling into softy urging posts like these:

+ Show Spoiler +

This from a guy who felt he had bagged a scum straight up. The real gist here is that Toad's tone does not follow any kind of cohesion. He's hot and cold and up and down on hiro, but always with a pushing towards lynch.

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Point 2: The bugs flip=flop

First Toad makes 3 posts that point him having a pretty null read on bugs, and certainly not a scum read:
+ Show Spoiler +

However, without mentioning him again, he now wants to lynch bugs. Not only that, but he's adding in bugs when he has already apparently found a 'claimed mafia' in Hiropro.



Also, look at his reasoning: not knowing the cycle was 24 hours, and not posting. Yet those are the exact thing that Toad mentioned earlier, not as scummy though, but as null! So how do those things suddenly become the basis of a case to rival hiropro, someone he thinks is very likely scum.

Straight up contradictions.

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Point 3: The scum slips

Let me be clear that I have never before found what I consider to be a true 'scum-slip'. The word gets bandied about on this site, and can mean pretty much anything. What it really means though, is to be in possession of information that townies could not possibly have, and only mafia could have.




hmm, where's the scum-slip you ask? I missed it at first too, but it's very clearly there. Toad is absolutely 100% he will be around on Day 2. There is only 1 way, and I do mean 1 way, that Toad can be convinced he will live till Day 2.

But maybe it was just a slip of the tongue, and he's not actually sure he'll survive the night....



Except he does it again!! He confirms the scumslip. This is a guy who just recently was shot night 1 in WoF mini-mafia, and has been getting shot more and more by mafia. There is no reason at all he should be certain he'll survive the night. In fact, if he is town he should be expecting that he is one of the more likely shots.

In fact, he even posts his prplhz case right before the deadline, as if he might get shot. But how then is he 100% certain he'll survive till Day 2. There are no vets, and no other way he could be certain he will survive.

The only way to be certain is if he is scum.

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Point 4: The prplhz case

I'm going to make this brief, as I feel there is already a body of evidence that shows Toads guilt without this. However Toads push on prplhz is indicative of a scum-push. Very often, when a scum player tries to push a townie, he does it by citing the wrong reasons. There are reasons to see prplhz as scummy, but NOT because of his defense of Navillus.

The key is that prplhz defended Navillus several times, but then switched over and voted for him early on in the wagon(3rd vote). There is an argument to be made there that prplhz was scummy in doing that. Toad touches on that, but his focus is squarely on the fact that prplhz should not have found Navillus scummy in the first place.

This is a competely backwards approach, one because prplhz was clear in his reasoning, and second because townies are defended all the time along the same lines prplhz was using.

Toad is pushing prplhz for the wrong reason, something which scum do all the time. This is not a particularly strong point, but a valid one nonetheless.

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Additionally, Toad has been buddying me all game, asking for activity without contributing himself and appealing to dead players. Add in the 4 points of my case, and you have a player who is almost assuredly mafia.


Vote for Toad. In fact, I don't even mind if you vote in the voting thread too, as I'm fairly sure he is scum.

##Vote: Toadesstern

On May 30 2012 09:48 wherebugsgo wrote:
Shut up Toad you're not worth a mafia bullet. You cause so much disruption regardless of alignment it's no wonder everyone calls you hypnotoad.

We kill gambit man today. He ninja voted ET yesterday and he's said nothing. Eat shit and die, scum.

##vote Gambitx32

On June 04 2012 08:34 HiroPro wrote:
EBWOP: My formatting is all screwed up.

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There's no need to be rude. You never mention what parts of my case or talismania's reads or Radfield's reads on Zephirdd you agree with. The reasons that you mention have nothing to do with whether or not he is mafia. You are being extremely inactive and not making any proper reads or cases of your own. Don't expect me to treat you like confirmed town.

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I agree with Radfield. I don't find the "going to be there d2" scummy but both the push on me (the uneven nature of it, especially when I look at people like Sbrubbles who also pushed me but did it very differently) and the really strange accusation on WBG (especially when Toad attempted to use this in his case against prplhz) are scummy. Toad's response to my questioning on the WBG part of his case against prplhz was bad, especially since he misrepresents prplhz (says that prplhz continued to push for WBG lynch), when in fact that was not the case at all.

Zephirdd and risk.nuke are both looking a little weird to me, but Toad's behavior is not only very scummy, but has clear mafia motives.

##Vote: Toadesstern (I will not be voting in the actual thread until much closer to the deadline)

On June 04 2012 08:35 Radfield wrote:



Allow me to remove the irrelevent parts of your post and leave the only relevant bit:



OK, that's much easier to read. You are trying to tell me that when you said D2, you were actually referring to the end of night 1.... right....



'once day 2 has started'

'once day 2 has started'

'once day 2 has started'

How does 'once day 2 has started', mean 'the end of night 1'.

I know it sucks when you caught in a scum-slip, but take solace in the fact that it was only the icing on the cake. I was leaning strong scum on you before I even found that.

On May 30 2012 09:48 wherebugsgo wrote:
Shut up Toad you're not worth a mafia bullet. You cause so much disruption regardless of alignment it's no wonder everyone calls you hypnotoad.

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