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Bang Bang Mafia 2 - Page 40

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MrZentor
Profile Joined December 2010
United States1648 Posts
June 14 2012 04:05 GMT
#781
That was why chaoser was so confident that gonzaw didn't have a gun. -.-
Falling’s just like flying, except there’s a more permanent destination.
RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 14 2012 04:19 GMT
#782
Alright Kenpachi give me two reasons not to kill you.
Be a man, Become a Legend. TL Mafia Forum Ask for access!!
RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 14 2012 04:27 GMT
#783
so here is how this is going to work. I am going to kill one of two people when I wake up. Those two people are Kenpachi and Toadesstern.

The town can feel free to give input on this, but I want to hear each one of you tell me why I should kill the other.
Be a man, Become a Legend. TL Mafia Forum Ask for access!!
RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 14 2012 05:11 GMT
#784
So I changed my mind in how I played this, I wrote that last part before I got my PM back from a mod. I do NOT have my gun back yet. I considered playing this out to milk info from kenpachi and toad but I figure in a 24 hour cycle its probably not the best idea nor the most town-orientated idea to lie to all of you for 20 or so hours.

It would of been analytical gold for me, but I'm sure I wouldn't live until it became useful if I tried it.
Be a man, Become a Legend. TL Mafia Forum Ask for access!!
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
June 14 2012 05:19 GMT
#785
oh. i was going to shoot you.
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
June 14 2012 05:26 GMT
#786
actually, wouldn't it be nice if i net my kill by shooting Meapak? Intuition tells me hes mafia
if im wrong, he will probably shoot me himself lol
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
June 14 2012 05:29 GMT
#787
actually meapak, if you are town, kill me personally
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
payl
Profile Joined June 2012
11 Posts
June 14 2012 05:33 GMT
#788
#1 suspect: MrZentor
On June 12 2012 23:17 MrZentor wrote:
RoL is most likely miller, as I doubt the mafia would make up something like that; the only suspicious thing is that now he appears exactly like a normal mafia goon (appears red and can't shoot), we might want to kill him in the future if we don't kill anybody who has the gun stealing role.

Originally, I was leaning toward Gonzaw being scum, but his posts have gotten more townie. However, he's still the most suspicious person, so I agree that we should have him shoot.

If we can't find an optimal person to shoot, I would encourage him to shoot into risk.nuke, Kenpachi, and payl.

Obviously we wouldn't allow him to choose who he shoots.

On June 14 2012 11:17 MrZentor wrote:
RoL talked about all the downsides of claiming millers, then claimed to be a miller.
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 12 2012 09:50 marvellosity wrote:
gonzaw, you've just made me read all the setup speculation on Millers. Damn thee. There is so much I do not like about the claim.

Show nested quote +
On June 12 2012 04:20 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Alright, finished reading.

Any plan that involves millers and role checking is quite stupid. There are so many things that can interfere with proper results that it hinges on nothing. Anyone advocating some sort of role centric plan needs to shut up. It won't work, we don't even know if all the roles in the OP are the only roles in the game, but even from what we can tell it is still a crap shoot and it could only get worse.

I agree with what Chaoser said. If we think someone is scummy, we make them shoot who they think are scummy. If they can't shoot and can't explain themselves then we just kill them. Problem solved. On the off chance the DT figures out his sanity and claims to have found someone a Miller claim CANNOT absolve them. A DT will only get a red check back on non GF roles if his sanity is known. The non GF roles cannot shoot, so they would need to shoot to prove they are a Miller.

That claim can literally never work.


There is only one actual benefit of a Miller claiming in this set up. Hypothetically its day 5, we need to kill a mafia and the DT claims knowing his sanity and has a red check on someone. Assuming that person has NEVER shot during the day then he can now shoot to prove that he is not scum but a Miller. There is no way scum can emulate that play to the point where it would help a Miller to claim earlier on. The only thing that this helps is preventing a cop who knows there alignment to claiming publicly in that one very niche scenario.

In that scenario the N1 Miller claim would save the cop from going public. That is the only benefit. So does that single benefit justify having someone claim Miller? I can't see why someone would ever get shit for claiming Miller. The only mafia benefit to claiming Miller would be to avoid a RC but the only one who can do that is the GF who would get outed by a DT check and would prefer to get DT checked anyway.

The same thing applies to SK's.

Anyone faking Miller would eventually just get outed by some means and its not worth it. So I guess there is only that one benefit, but there is no real drawback besides people wasting time speculating on why someone claimed Miller.

But hey, since I outlined all the reasons above and there are no true drawbacks, might as well claim that I'm a Miller.


Green text: Outlines in some depth how little benefit there is to Miller claiming in this setup. He calls the benefit a 'very niche' scenario.
Red text: Having outlined why it's barely beneficial if at all to claim Miller, he leaps into categorically saying no-one should give miller claims any shit. Claims at the end he 'outlined all the reasons'. All the reasons? He clarified himself it would only help in a 'very niche scenario'. What gives? He then says mafia have no reason to fakeclaim miller. He's actively pushing this to discredit the notion.
Blue text: Also see post below, but this looks like an attempt to halt any discussion of his miller claim. Because we're so busy on Night 0, right?

Show nested quote +
On June 12 2012 06:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
On June 12 2012 04:55 FreelanceSatan wrote:
On June 12 2012 04:37 chaoser wrote:
Isn't it Night 0? As in mafia get to do night kills if they want to? why did RoL claim miller already...


yeah i didnt even think about that..looks like he jumped the gun a bit there.. what are the chances the mafia would want to shoot him instead of shooting for blues tho?

It's not really a big deal. Half the reason I considered not claiming at all was just because I didn't think it was worth considering whether or not I was a Miller. I am sure if I continue being alive they will try to make me suspciious because of that. Or killing me, whatever. There is a chance that a medic could be on me because I claimed and they would be wasting their first hit.

There is a number of things they have to take into account. Ultimately, I'm not really worried and whether I die or not its not that big of a deal.


Again with the blue text, pushing the idea that talking about his claim is a bad thing. To the bold and underlined: twice he says his claim is not a big deal. More language in the middle with 'or killing me, whatever'. Basically totally flippant and acting unconcerned about it.

Show nested quote +
On June 12 2012 06:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
On June 12 2012 04:58 Toadesstern wrote:
On June 12 2012 04:55 FreelanceSatan wrote:
On June 12 2012 04:37 chaoser wrote:
Isn't it Night 0? As in mafia get to do night kills if they want to? why did RoL claim miller already...


yeah i didnt even think about that..looks like he jumped the gun a bit there.. what are the chances the mafia would want to shoot him instead of shooting for blues tho?

about 0. I actually thought there's no way that's really a claim because that would be stupid. Maybe it's a trick to survive d0? :p
Let's start the wifom machine lol.

And here comes that suspicion thing I was talking about. It's the only downside I perceived of claiming regardless of timing. Idiots will always over-analyze shit for no reason. However that wasn't something I could articulate without just saying people are dumb and we can't work around them being suspicious of a miller claim regardless of how illogical it is for any non-town person to do it.


Look at the change in tone! From his original claim with his "hey, I guess I'll claim miller" casual attitude and subsequent post with the 'whatevers' and 'it's not a big deal' he fucking jumps down Toad's throat. Now he's again pushing the idea that even talking about his claim is a bad thing. He admits here that he forsaw people being suspicious of the claim. Yet in his original post, the only 'benefit' he saw was with a very niche day 5 cop scenario.

RoL said elsewhere in his filter that we should be working off behavioural analysis. I agree. I'm not questioning the claim because he claimed Miller, I'm questioning how he's gone about it. Scum.



He claimed to have his gun taken away, which is really suspicious as it sets him up to look exactly like a mafia goon (appears red and can't shoot), and it seems improbable that either mafia or sk would have this power.

Show nested quote +
On June 12 2012 13:54 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Well I was shot last night but survived. I also had my gun taken away which is quite interesting.


These things coupled with the fact that he hasn't been around for the entire night makes me doubt his claim.




Would anybody else care to comment?

Entire change of stance based on pithy reasoning which doesn't support the change in opinion. And even better, the later post which ends with "would anybody else care to comment?" showing that he's afraid to commit to the accusation and is instead throwing it out there and seeing if it gains traction. Scum.

On June 12 2012 23:40 MrZentor wrote:
Show nested quote +
If you really want to shoot me or something at least wait 24 hours into D1 so you don't waste the whole day and so we can put some sense into you.

His insistence on waiting until most of the day passes before shooting.

Show nested quote +
I personally don't find people's opinion on certain plans (or policy lynches, etc) alignment telling at all. So no matter how much someone talks and talks about plans, I can't analyze their alignment based on their behaviour, if everybody else is discussing plans as well.


This seems like the genuine thing a mafia wouldn't say.

+ Show Spoiler +
What if all of us claim if we have a gun to shoot or not?

Like said before, most blue roles are not that strong (the good ones don't know their sanity); but the VT/Miller roles are the strongest since they control the "lynch", and are our only way to win this game (other than a random vigilante out there).

I think they did it like this:

1)Everybody claims if they have a gun or not
2)The people that claimed they have a gun, take turns each day to shoot the most scummy one from the pool of the guys that don't have a gun
Here we can use that "random thingy" site Palmar made for iGrok's game (if someone's good enough to copy the script and shit, maybe make it public):
Each day we make a list of all the people that claimed they have a gun, and randomize it. That way we randomly choose who to shoot from that list.
That way mafia can't try to fake-claim that they have a gun and manipulate their way to never shoot at all, because the process of choosing who to shoot is random so if it's their turn to shoot they can't get away with it (this will disencourage scum fake-claiming they have a gun).

This is the beauty from the plan:
Yes, all the VTs/Millers will be outed for SK/scum, and so will the blues....
...however the blues will be mostly intact and survive the whole game.

Why? Because in the pool of blues most of the scum (goon and RBers, etc) lurk. If they shoot blues at night, that pool is reduced so they have more chances of being shot at day.
Not only that, but because of what I said earlier they'll most likely shoot VTs (check that post I made).

So blues are free to make their actions at night (not all of them can be RBed, plus they shouldn't claim their roles either) to help us with what we can, while we systematically kill those scum in their group.

Once we kill all scum in the "blue" group (3 of them right?), we are set, leave the rest of those blues alone and take a look at the VT/Miller claims to get the GF and the SK.

Since only non-gunners will get shot at day, and only gunners will get shot at night by scum, the blues in the non-gunners group can use:
1)Their medic saves on the gunners
2)Their watcher/tracker/cop checks on the gunners

1)Because those are the only ones getting shot at night, so they have a greater chance to save them
2)Because once all the scum from the non-gunners are killed, we need to find the SK/GF. If blues check those players, then it's more likely they can find the SK/GF for us so we have it easier later.


That was the way it would work in the 1st game.
Now that I think about it the "SK or scum can steal guns at night" thing if RoL says the truth can change it a little bit

What do you guys think? Any way to improve it if it's worth it? Or is it unworthy?


This is an excellent plan, which I believe would give town a great chance of winning; I doubt a mafia would suggest it.




Also, something I found along the way.


Show nested quote +
Pretty sure

1) We'll run out of things to say or just go in circles
2) Ace will probably put a limit on like 48 hours and then we just "no shot" and move straight to night
3) Someone will probably get trigger happy and shoot anyway.

I want gonzaw to shoot. We already had 24 hours of discussion since night 0 happened, we've got our suspicions. Let's go gonzaw, chop chop.


Chaoser wanted Gonzaw to shoot at dawn, effectively killing 24 hours of discussion.

That's exactly what scum would want to happen.

This post is 100% bullshit. "This seems like the genuine thing a mafia wouldn't say." What the fuck does that mean?
And "This is an excellent plan, which I believe would give town a great chance of winning; I doubt a mafia would suggest it."? The plan was terrible...outing which townies could shoot and which could not? In any other context I would have taken MrZentor's comment to be sarcasm. And then another single sentence trying to paint chaoser with a bit of guilt for something that is frankly, trivial.

I also have my eye on Toads, but I'll write more tomorrow.
payl
Profile Joined June 2012
11 Posts
June 14 2012 05:34 GMT
#789
and please don't shoot each other that quickly, I'm still trying to get a feel for everything and would rather not have the day shortened.
payl
Profile Joined June 2012
11 Posts
June 14 2012 05:37 GMT
#790
The entire sequence of MrZentor's posts about gonzaw look like he's trying to disassociate himself with all of it...but the bulk of his "defense" of gonzaw didn't make sense at the point in time which he made it. And of course coming in afterwards to shit on everyone involved...hmm.
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
June 14 2012 05:47 GMT
#791
payl why did you not answer me day1... do you have a gun?
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
June 14 2012 05:54 GMT
#792
and i need a full claim from toad please...
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
June 14 2012 05:55 GMT
#793
actually i think a mass roleclaim would be quite beneficial. discuss.
Dirkzor
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
Denmark1944 Posts
June 14 2012 08:05 GMT
#794
Morning!

First of, lets kill scum. I present: MrZentor!

I was on to him early on: read here

But after that it have just gotten worse.

On June 12 2012 23:40 MrZentor wrote:
Show nested quote +
If you really want to shoot me or something at least wait 24 hours into D1 so you don't waste the whole day and so we can put some sense into you.

His insistence on waiting until most of the day passes before shooting.

Show nested quote +
I personally don't find people's opinion on certain plans (or policy lynches, etc) alignment telling at all. So no matter how much someone talks and talks about plans, I can't analyze their alignment based on their behaviour, if everybody else is discussing plans as well.


This seems like the genuine thing a mafia wouldn't say.

+ Show Spoiler +
What if all of us claim if we have a gun to shoot or not?

Like said before, most blue roles are not that strong (the good ones don't know their sanity); but the VT/Miller roles are the strongest since they control the "lynch", and are our only way to win this game (other than a random vigilante out there).

I think they did it like this:

1)Everybody claims if they have a gun or not
2)The people that claimed they have a gun, take turns each day to shoot the most scummy one from the pool of the guys that don't have a gun
Here we can use that "random thingy" site Palmar made for iGrok's game (if someone's good enough to copy the script and shit, maybe make it public):
Each day we make a list of all the people that claimed they have a gun, and randomize it. That way we randomly choose who to shoot from that list.
That way mafia can't try to fake-claim that they have a gun and manipulate their way to never shoot at all, because the process of choosing who to shoot is random so if it's their turn to shoot they can't get away with it (this will disencourage scum fake-claiming they have a gun).

This is the beauty from the plan:
Yes, all the VTs/Millers will be outed for SK/scum, and so will the blues....
...however the blues will be mostly intact and survive the whole game.

Why? Because in the pool of blues most of the scum (goon and RBers, etc) lurk. If they shoot blues at night, that pool is reduced so they have more chances of being shot at day.
Not only that, but because of what I said earlier they'll most likely shoot VTs (check that post I made).

So blues are free to make their actions at night (not all of them can be RBed, plus they shouldn't claim their roles either) to help us with what we can, while we systematically kill those scum in their group.

Once we kill all scum in the "blue" group (3 of them right?), we are set, leave the rest of those blues alone and take a look at the VT/Miller claims to get the GF and the SK.

Since only non-gunners will get shot at day, and only gunners will get shot at night by scum, the blues in the non-gunners group can use:
1)Their medic saves on the gunners
2)Their watcher/tracker/cop checks on the gunners

1)Because those are the only ones getting shot at night, so they have a greater chance to save them
2)Because once all the scum from the non-gunners are killed, we need to find the SK/GF. If blues check those players, then it's more likely they can find the SK/GF for us so we have it easier later.


That was the way it would work in the 1st game.
Now that I think about it the "SK or scum can steal guns at night" thing if RoL says the truth can change it a little bit

What do you guys think? Any way to improve it if it's worth it? Or is it unworthy?


This is an excellent plan, which I believe would give town a great chance of winning; I doubt a mafia would suggest it.




Also, something I found along the way.


Show nested quote +
Pretty sure

1) We'll run out of things to say or just go in circles
2) Ace will probably put a limit on like 48 hours and then we just "no shot" and move straight to night
3) Someone will probably get trigger happy and shoot anyway.

I want gonzaw to shoot. We already had 24 hours of discussion since night 0 happened, we've got our suspicions. Let's go gonzaw, chop chop.


Chaoser wanted Gonzaw to shoot at dawn, effectively killing 24 hours of discussion.

That's exactly what scum would want to happen.


In this post he already starts to distance himself from any potential Gonzaw death (because he knew he was town). Calling gonzaw plan "This seems like the genuine thing a mafia wouldn't say." is bullcrap since scum always come up with plans so we discuss the plan instead of actaul scumhunting. Its also easy to make it look like you are contributing when posting plans and talking about said plans. (See RoL in storm)

He also starts a small "Chaoser is scum" notion throughout the post because chaoser is pressuring gonzaw saying he should shoot now. But chaoser had a pretty legit reason:
On June 12 2012 13:31 chaoser wrote:
Show nested quote +
(Unless you want him to shoot right away as a proof of his possible towny-ness, or at least gun ownership, while effectively modkilling the SK if we've understood right how the role works?)


Bingo. I think he's scummy and also unlikely to be SK and so why not kill two birds with one stone.

So no reason for zentor to call chaoser scum. Getting the SK so early because of technical rules would have been great at the same time pressuring someone chaoser thought was scum. And note that Chaoser flipped town. Also note that chaoser posts was before any claim from RoL being shot and saved thus making his logic quite good.

+ Show Spoiler [Zentor trying to get a chaoser wagon g…] +
On June 12 2012 23:46 MrZentor wrote:
Gonzaw should shoot chaoser.

On June 12 2012 23:52 MrZentor wrote:
Chaoser said that he didn't want to wait 24 hours and that he wanted Gonzaw to shoot a few minutes after the day post.

Check your facts.

On June 13 2012 00:01 MrZentor wrote:
Do you agree that Chaoser is scummy?


Then Gonzaw gets shot. Kita comes in and calls us all idiots for killing him:+ Show Spoiler [Kita's post for reference] +
On June 13 2012 10:50 kitaman27 wrote:
I was writing up a nice long post about how gonzaw should be the last person we should shoot and I got ninja'd by like 3 min. -_-

Why shoot the claimed cop day one when he could either tie up the roleblocker in a watcher setup, take a night hit, or provide an additional check. You can all yell at me for complaining after the flip, but that's a poor decision.

I'll stop by tomorrow evening before the night post with thoughts for day two.
. Kita had some, in my opinion, good reasons to call us stupid. But then Zentor post this:
On June 13 2012 12:07 MrZentor wrote:
I don't see how anybody could have thought Gonzaw was scum after that claim.

The balls of steel was the sort of detail which sum doesn't have the time or energy to fabricate.


Thats some weak ass reasoning as to why killing gonzaw was stupid? "lolz why didn't you idiots beleive him? He wrote balls of steel!" (<-- is my own interpretation)
I think toad also touched on why this is stupid. Scum is sometimes given fake roleclaims that look like they were made by the host. So the BoS thing is total irrelevant. But look of it connects with Zentor distancing him from a townie flipping gonzaw.

After chaoser flipped town Zentor needed someone new to push as scum. Why not go back to one already being discussed and in focus? RoL! With this:

On June 14 2012 11:17 MrZentor wrote:
RoL talked about all the downsides of claiming millers, then claimed to be a miller.
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 12 2012 09:50 marvellosity wrote:
gonzaw, you've just made me read all the setup speculation on Millers. Damn thee. There is so much I do not like about the claim.

Show nested quote +
On June 12 2012 04:20 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Alright, finished reading.

Any plan that involves millers and role checking is quite stupid. There are so many things that can interfere with proper results that it hinges on nothing. Anyone advocating some sort of role centric plan needs to shut up. It won't work, we don't even know if all the roles in the OP are the only roles in the game, but even from what we can tell it is still a crap shoot and it could only get worse.

I agree with what Chaoser said. If we think someone is scummy, we make them shoot who they think are scummy. If they can't shoot and can't explain themselves then we just kill them. Problem solved. On the off chance the DT figures out his sanity and claims to have found someone a Miller claim CANNOT absolve them. A DT will only get a red check back on non GF roles if his sanity is known. The non GF roles cannot shoot, so they would need to shoot to prove they are a Miller.

That claim can literally never work.


There is only one actual benefit of a Miller claiming in this set up. Hypothetically its day 5, we need to kill a mafia and the DT claims knowing his sanity and has a red check on someone. Assuming that person has NEVER shot during the day then he can now shoot to prove that he is not scum but a Miller. There is no way scum can emulate that play to the point where it would help a Miller to claim earlier on. The only thing that this helps is preventing a cop who knows there alignment to claiming publicly in that one very niche scenario.

In that scenario the N1 Miller claim would save the cop from going public. That is the only benefit. So does that single benefit justify having someone claim Miller? I can't see why someone would ever get shit for claiming Miller. The only mafia benefit to claiming Miller would be to avoid a RC but the only one who can do that is the GF who would get outed by a DT check and would prefer to get DT checked anyway.

The same thing applies to SK's.

Anyone faking Miller would eventually just get outed by some means and its not worth it. So I guess there is only that one benefit, but there is no real drawback besides people wasting time speculating on why someone claimed Miller.

But hey, since I outlined all the reasons above and there are no true drawbacks, might as well claim that I'm a Miller.


Green text: Outlines in some depth how little benefit there is to Miller claiming in this setup. He calls the benefit a 'very niche' scenario.
Red text: Having outlined why it's barely beneficial if at all to claim Miller, he leaps into categorically saying no-one should give miller claims any shit. Claims at the end he 'outlined all the reasons'. All the reasons? He clarified himself it would only help in a 'very niche scenario'. What gives? He then says mafia have no reason to fakeclaim miller. He's actively pushing this to discredit the notion.
Blue text: Also see post below, but this looks like an attempt to halt any discussion of his miller claim. Because we're so busy on Night 0, right?

Show nested quote +
On June 12 2012 06:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
On June 12 2012 04:55 FreelanceSatan wrote:
On June 12 2012 04:37 chaoser wrote:
Isn't it Night 0? As in mafia get to do night kills if they want to? why did RoL claim miller already...


yeah i didnt even think about that..looks like he jumped the gun a bit there.. what are the chances the mafia would want to shoot him instead of shooting for blues tho?

It's not really a big deal. Half the reason I considered not claiming at all was just because I didn't think it was worth considering whether or not I was a Miller. I am sure if I continue being alive they will try to make me suspciious because of that. Or killing me, whatever. There is a chance that a medic could be on me because I claimed and they would be wasting their first hit.

There is a number of things they have to take into account. Ultimately, I'm not really worried and whether I die or not its not that big of a deal.


Again with the blue text, pushing the idea that talking about his claim is a bad thing. To the bold and underlined: twice he says his claim is not a big deal. More language in the middle with 'or killing me, whatever'. Basically totally flippant and acting unconcerned about it.

Show nested quote +
On June 12 2012 06:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
On June 12 2012 04:58 Toadesstern wrote:
On June 12 2012 04:55 FreelanceSatan wrote:
On June 12 2012 04:37 chaoser wrote:
Isn't it Night 0? As in mafia get to do night kills if they want to? why did RoL claim miller already...


yeah i didnt even think about that..looks like he jumped the gun a bit there.. what are the chances the mafia would want to shoot him instead of shooting for blues tho?

about 0. I actually thought there's no way that's really a claim because that would be stupid. Maybe it's a trick to survive d0? :p
Let's start the wifom machine lol.

And here comes that suspicion thing I was talking about. It's the only downside I perceived of claiming regardless of timing. Idiots will always over-analyze shit for no reason. However that wasn't something I could articulate without just saying people are dumb and we can't work around them being suspicious of a miller claim regardless of how illogical it is for any non-town person to do it.


Look at the change in tone! From his original claim with his "hey, I guess I'll claim miller" casual attitude and subsequent post with the 'whatevers' and 'it's not a big deal' he fucking jumps down Toad's throat. Now he's again pushing the idea that even talking about his claim is a bad thing. He admits here that he forsaw people being suspicious of the claim. Yet in his original post, the only 'benefit' he saw was with a very niche day 5 cop scenario.

RoL said elsewhere in his filter that we should be working off behavioural analysis. I agree. I'm not questioning the claim because he claimed Miller, I'm questioning how he's gone about it. Scum.



He claimed to have his gun taken away, which is really suspicious as it sets him up to look exactly like a mafia goon (appears red and can't shoot), and it seems improbable that either mafia or sk would have this power.

Show nested quote +
On June 12 2012 13:54 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Well I was shot last night but survived. I also had my gun taken away which is quite interesting.


These things coupled with the fact that he hasn't been around for the entire night makes me doubt his claim.




Would anybody else care to comment?


Zentor didn't actually write anything new about this. Well maybe the fact that RoL wasn't active during the night. Thats the only thing that have changed since Zentor wrote this:
On June 12 2012 23:17 MrZentor wrote:
RoL is most likely miller, as I doubt the mafia would make up something like that; the only suspicious thing is that now he appears exactly like a normal mafia goon (appears red and can't shoot), we might want to kill him in the future if we don't kill anybody who has the gun stealing role.

Originally, I was leaning toward Gonzaw being scum, but his posts have gotten more townie. However, he's still the most suspicious person, so I agree that we should have him shoot.

If we can't find an optimal person to shoot, I would encourage him to shoot into risk.nuke, Kenpachi, and payl.

Obviously we wouldn't allow him to choose who he shoots.


It doesn't make sense that Zentor should change his opinion about RoL for no reason at all.

During the last part of this night Zentor also used the known scum tactic call: "No I don't! But he did! Look!"
On June 14 2012 12:14 MrZentor wrote:
I haven't been lurking for days. -.-

If you want to find somebody who has been lurking for days, look at Kenpachi.

"I'm not lurking but kenpachi is!"

On June 14 2012 12:36 MrZentor wrote:
It means he can't shoot for one day.

And MZ, how is pointing out how lurky RoL has been and how that's terribly suspicious behavior for a person who claimed miller not original?

Speaking of original content, I'd like some from you.

Look at your last posts from the night.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 13 2012 12:10 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Check it out, Kita AND zentor show up to tell us how dumb we are.

Would have been just snazzy if you gentleman had actually been around during the day.


On June 14 2012 04:37 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Тебе надо говорит по-английский


On June 14 2012 05:56 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 14 2012 04:39 VisceraEyes wrote:
On June 14 2012 04:37 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Тебе надо говорит по-английский


lol

MZ any thoughts you wanna share?

atm I'm at school getting ready for my last final so no lol.

I still wanna kill zentor and the rastaban case looks decent from what I can tell.


On June 14 2012 12:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 14 2012 11:17 MrZentor wrote:
RoL talked about all the downsides of claiming millers, then claimed to be a miller.
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 12 2012 09:50 marvellosity wrote:
gonzaw, you've just made me read all the setup speculation on Millers. Damn thee. There is so much I do not like about the claim.

Show nested quote +
On June 12 2012 04:20 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Alright, finished reading.

Any plan that involves millers and role checking is quite stupid. There are so many things that can interfere with proper results that it hinges on nothing. Anyone advocating some sort of role centric plan needs to shut up. It won't work, we don't even know if all the roles in the OP are the only roles in the game, but even from what we can tell it is still a crap shoot and it could only get worse.

I agree with what Chaoser said. If we think someone is scummy, we make them shoot who they think are scummy. If they can't shoot and can't explain themselves then we just kill them. Problem solved. On the off chance the DT figures out his sanity and claims to have found someone a Miller claim CANNOT absolve them. A DT will only get a red check back on non GF roles if his sanity is known. The non GF roles cannot shoot, so they would need to shoot to prove they are a Miller.

That claim can literally never work.


There is only one actual benefit of a Miller claiming in this set up. Hypothetically its day 5, we need to kill a mafia and the DT claims knowing his sanity and has a red check on someone. Assuming that person has NEVER shot during the day then he can now shoot to prove that he is not scum but a Miller. There is no way scum can emulate that play to the point where it would help a Miller to claim earlier on. The only thing that this helps is preventing a cop who knows there alignment to claiming publicly in that one very niche scenario.

In that scenario the N1 Miller claim would save the cop from going public. That is the only benefit. So does that single benefit justify having someone claim Miller? I can't see why someone would ever get shit for claiming Miller. The only mafia benefit to claiming Miller would be to avoid a RC but the only one who can do that is the GF who would get outed by a DT check and would prefer to get DT checked anyway.

The same thing applies to SK's.

Anyone faking Miller would eventually just get outed by some means and its not worth it. So I guess there is only that one benefit, but there is no real drawback besides people wasting time speculating on why someone claimed Miller.

But hey, since I outlined all the reasons above and there are no true drawbacks, might as well claim that I'm a Miller.


Green text: Outlines in some depth how little benefit there is to Miller claiming in this setup. He calls the benefit a 'very niche' scenario.
Red text: Having outlined why it's barely beneficial if at all to claim Miller, he leaps into categorically saying no-one should give miller claims any shit. Claims at the end he 'outlined all the reasons'. All the reasons? He clarified himself it would only help in a 'very niche scenario'. What gives? He then says mafia have no reason to fakeclaim miller. He's actively pushing this to discredit the notion.
Blue text: Also see post below, but this looks like an attempt to halt any discussion of his miller claim. Because we're so busy on Night 0, right?

Show nested quote +
On June 12 2012 06:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
On June 12 2012 04:55 FreelanceSatan wrote:
On June 12 2012 04:37 chaoser wrote:
Isn't it Night 0? As in mafia get to do night kills if they want to? why did RoL claim miller already...


yeah i didnt even think about that..looks like he jumped the gun a bit there.. what are the chances the mafia would want to shoot him instead of shooting for blues tho?

It's not really a big deal. Half the reason I considered not claiming at all was just because I didn't think it was worth considering whether or not I was a Miller. I am sure if I continue being alive they will try to make me suspciious because of that. Or killing me, whatever. There is a chance that a medic could be on me because I claimed and they would be wasting their first hit.

There is a number of things they have to take into account. Ultimately, I'm not really worried and whether I die or not its not that big of a deal.


Again with the blue text, pushing the idea that talking about his claim is a bad thing. To the bold and underlined: twice he says his claim is not a big deal. More language in the middle with 'or killing me, whatever'. Basically totally flippant and acting unconcerned about it.

Show nested quote +
On June 12 2012 06:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
On June 12 2012 04:58 Toadesstern wrote:
On June 12 2012 04:55 FreelanceSatan wrote:
On June 12 2012 04:37 chaoser wrote:
Isn't it Night 0? As in mafia get to do night kills if they want to? why did RoL claim miller already...


yeah i didnt even think about that..looks like he jumped the gun a bit there.. what are the chances the mafia would want to shoot him instead of shooting for blues tho?

about 0. I actually thought there's no way that's really a claim because that would be stupid. Maybe it's a trick to survive d0? :p
Let's start the wifom machine lol.

And here comes that suspicion thing I was talking about. It's the only downside I perceived of claiming regardless of timing. Idiots will always over-analyze shit for no reason. However that wasn't something I could articulate without just saying people are dumb and we can't work around them being suspicious of a miller claim regardless of how illogical it is for any non-town person to do it.


Look at the change in tone! From his original claim with his "hey, I guess I'll claim miller" casual attitude and subsequent post with the 'whatevers' and 'it's not a big deal' he fucking jumps down Toad's throat. Now he's again pushing the idea that even talking about his claim is a bad thing. He admits here that he forsaw people being suspicious of the claim. Yet in his original post, the only 'benefit' he saw was with a very niche day 5 cop scenario.

RoL said elsewhere in his filter that we should be working off behavioural analysis. I agree. I'm not questioning the claim because he claimed Miller, I'm questioning how he's gone about it. Scum.



He claimed to have his gun taken away, which is really suspicious as it sets him up to look exactly like a mafia goon (appears red and can't shoot), and it seems improbable that either mafia or sk would have this power.

On June 12 2012 13:54 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Well I was shot last night but survived. I also had my gun taken away which is quite interesting.


These things coupled with the fact that he hasn't been around for the entire night makes me doubt his claim.




Would anybody else care to comment?

So zentor you've been lurking for days and when you come back this is what you decide to comment on?

ALSO NO MORE FINALS!!!


On June 14 2012 12:13 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
To clarify that last post, nicely done commenting on something that has been discussed to death. What about rastaban?


On June 14 2012 12:15 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 14 2012 12:14 MrZentor wrote:
I haven't been lurking for days. -.-

If you want to find somebody who has been lurking for days, look at Kenpachi.

Do you have anything original to add?


On June 14 2012 12:23 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
I'm off to play some celebratory LoL, I'll check the thread when I'm done.

I'm really liking the idea of having rastaban shoot zentor, thoughts?





What can a reader get from these posts?

That you want me dead, you like the Rastaban case, and you think I lurked a bunch.


"I'm not posting anything original. But neither are you!"

I say we kill Zentor today!
"HOW THE FUCK ARE YOU ON TOP AGAIN???? HOW DO YOU KEEP DOING THIS????" -Julmust (also, thats what she said)
Dirkzor
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
Denmark1944 Posts
June 14 2012 08:08 GMT
#795
Edit to post above:

I forgot to mention that Zentor post calling us idiots for killing gonzaw only came AFTER Kita's. It's always easier to be number 2 pointing out stuff as scum then to be the first.
"HOW THE FUCK ARE YOU ON TOP AGAIN???? HOW DO YOU KEEP DOING THIS????" -Julmust (also, thats what she said)
Dirkzor
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
Denmark1944 Posts
June 14 2012 08:12 GMT
#796
On June 14 2012 14:55 supersoft wrote:
actually i think a mass roleclaim would be quite beneficial. discuss.


No? How is the any different from the plan that gonzaw proposed. You out the blues. Some scum will fakeclaim they are blue and some will fakeclaim they are VT. We have to get lucky in order to pressure the right scum amoung the VT claimers to catch them while most likely shooting into our own blues. That and giving all the information to the SK/scum. Info like "How many VT's are left" "which type of blues are left"

That and the GF will be uncatchable through a mass claim...
"HOW THE FUCK ARE YOU ON TOP AGAIN???? HOW DO YOU KEEP DOING THIS????" -Julmust (also, thats what she said)
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
June 14 2012 08:43 GMT
#797
lol how is the gf uncatchable?
i start. i am VT surprise surprise.
massclaim is good i got it.
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
June 14 2012 08:44 GMT
#798
blues suck in this setup and we already lost 2
Dirkzor
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
Denmark1944 Posts
June 14 2012 08:57 GMT
#799
Well not uncatchable. But we won't gain anything from a claim towards finding the GF...

I just don't understand what you want to archeive with a mass claim?
"HOW THE FUCK ARE YOU ON TOP AGAIN???? HOW DO YOU KEEP DOING THIS????" -Julmust (also, thats what she said)
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
June 14 2012 09:11 GMT
#800
i have a rough idea who is town, who is scum snd eho is questionable.
having their claims would help me with my further judgement.
the downside that scum knows our blues isn't that bad in this modus because a medic for example could be insane etc.
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